PARIS — Former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe’s reelection as mayor of Le Havre is positioning him as the leading candidate to take on the far right in next year’s presidential election. The contest was an important test for the center-right politician, as he had conditioned his bid for the Elysée on securing another term leading the industrial port city, which in the past tended to lean left. A poll released ahead of the vote showed Philippe in real danger of losing to a Communist challenger — an outcome that would have scuttled his plans to run for president. But Philippe shut down skeptics by winning the runoff by more than six points. Then a Toluna Harris Interactive survey conducted online just after polls closed in the nationwide municipal elections showed Philippe on track for a second-place finish in the first round of the 2027 presidential contest, though still trailing National Rally President Jordan Bardella by 17 points. Philippe looks primed to come out the other end of this make-or-break moment stronger. Building momentum now could help separate Philippe from the rest of a very crowded field of candidates in the race for the Elysée, though there’s still more than a year to go. “Everything sort of starts today,” Nathalie Loiseau, a MEP from Philippe’s Horizons party and one of its heavyweights, told POLITICO. “There are reasons to hope.” Philippe, who was the first of the center-right contenders to declare his presidential bid, is already rolling out campaign events, with April 12 bookmarked for a large-scale rally in Paris, according to two party officials — though Loiseau declined to confirm the event. “Le Havre’s people know that there is reason for hope when all people of good will come together … and reject the extremes and their simplistic solutions,” Philippe said in his victory speech Sunday from Le Havre. The politician’s strong performance in the first round and his comfortable win in the runoff drew a sigh of relief from his allies on Sunday — and led some of his most prominent rivals to publicly acknowledge his front-runner status. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, himself a presidential hopeful, called on Philippe to unite centrists behind him. “He now needs to unite people [around him], for us to have an only candidate,” Darmanin said on France 2 last week. A person close to Darmanin told POLITICO that Philippe’s performance was “a bucket of cold water” for the justice minister’s presidential aspirations. EXPERIENCE VS. YOUTH France’s 2027 presidential race looks likely to be the most consequential in a decade, with the far-right National Rally consistently polling more than 15 percentage points ahead of other parties. Despite failing to pick up high-profile targets like Marseille, Nîmes and Toulon, the far right celebrated its performance Sunday. Bardella told supporters in Paris the far right had achieved the “biggest breakthrough of its history,” while his mentor Marine Le Pen said the National Rally had scored “dozens” of regional victories. The National Rally’s biggest win on Sunday came on the French Riviera, where one of its allies won Nice, France’s fifth-most-populous city. However, political watchers were quick to note that the victory was more attributable to local rightwing baron-turned-far-right-ally Eric Ciotti than to Bardella. Loiseau argued there was no National Rally “wave” in these local elections, flagging the party’s failure to achieve a decisive breakthrough in large and midsize cities. But she said the far right’s slow and steady rise, including in rural areas that used to be strongholds of moderate politics, shouldn’t be underestimated. Bardella is the National Rally’s most likely candidate next year unless Marine Le Pen successfully appeals the five-year election ban she was handed as the result of an embezzlement conviction. Bardella’s popularity has risen steadily, but he has never personally won election for local or national government. Philippe’s allies are hoping his credentials as prime minister during Emmanuel Macron’s first term and extensive background in politics will give him a decisive edge should he qualify to run against the National Rally in the 2027 runoff. Bardella’s opponents see his lack of executive-level experience as a key weakness in a presidential contest, especially as Europe is embroiled in two major international conflicts. “Edouard Philippe was a prime minister during a major crisis, which was Covid. He has an international stature,” said Loiseau. “You can imagine him facing Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin. This isn’t necessarily true of everyone who is either an official candidate or would like to be a candidate.”

PARIS — Lionel Jospin, a Socialist prime minister under center-right French President Jacques Chirac, has died at age 88, his family told AFP. Jospin, a household name in France and a social-democratic heavyweight, left politics after failing to qualify for the second round of the 2002 presidential election, which saw far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen qualify for the first time. The result sent shockwaves through the country and foreshadowed the National Rally’s steady rise to become France’s most popular party under the leadership of Le Pen’s daughter, Marine Le Pen. Jospin, a defender of traditional parties, had criticized President Emmanuel Macron for making them obsolete and the French president’s “hubris” in a book published in 2020. Macron praised Jospin as “a great French figure” in a social media post Monday. “Through his rigor, courage and ideal of progress, he embodied a lofty vision of the Republic,” Macron wrote on X. Jospin, who successfully united the left camp during his tenure as the party’s leader in the 1990s and became prime minister in 1997, supported the left-wing alliance uniting the Socialists, the Greens and far-left France Unbowed during the 2022 legislative election campaign. But he cautioned against France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s disruptive political strategy shortly after the election, warning of its potentially destructive effects on the broader left in an interview with Le Monde. Jospin’s death was announced the morning after local elections that are setting the scene for the 2027 presidential race, at a time when the left is weakened by deep divisions among moderates over whether uniting with a dominant but increasingly toxic Mélenchon is inevitable — or risking sinking the left’s ship.

FRENCH FAR RIGHT CLAIMS MOMENTUM FOR PRESIDENCY AFTER LOCAL ELECTIONS Marine Le Pen’s National Rally failed to win big target cities such as Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes, but the party still thinks it has the upper hand nationwide. By CLEA CAULCUTT in Paris POLITICO illustration. The far-right National Rally may not have won the string of big target cities it was hoping for in France’s local election on Sunday, but its leaders said they had still built up a grassroots momentum that would propel them to victory in next year’s presidential contest. The 2027 presidential election is seen as a decisive moment for the EU as the Euroskeptic and NATO-skeptic National Rally is the current favorite to win the race for the Elysée. This week’s municipal elections are being closely scrutinized to gauge whether Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration party is still France’s predominant political force. All in all, it was a mixed night for the far right. Its biggest victory came on the Riviera, where one of its allies won Nice, France’s fifth-biggest city. The National Rally had also campaigned hard in other significant southern cities such as Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes. It performed well in all of them but was beaten into second place. The races were close in Toulon and Nîmes, and Le Pen’s party won 40 percent of the vote in Marseille — a considerable share in France’s diverse and cosmopolitan second city. Putting a positive spin on the results, the party leaders stressed that they had won numerous smaller and mid-sized cities and towns, particularly in their southern heartlands, such as Carcassonne, Agde and Menton — adding to the first-round victory in Perpignan last week. National Rally President Jordan Bardella told supporters in Paris the far right had achieved the “biggest breakthrough of its history,” and was seizing “a strong momentum” that signaled “the end of an old world running out of steam.” National Rally mayoral candidate Laure Lavalette casts her ballot during the second round of France’s 2026 municipal elections in Toulon on March 22, 2026. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images National Rally leader Le Pen meanwhile hailed “dozens” of regional victories and “a strategy of local implantation” that was working. STRONG NATIONWIDE, WEAKER IN BIG CITIES The National Rally’s argument is that traditional parties, particularly on the left, are strong in the big cities but that these do not fully reflect the wider national political currents, which are running toward the right. In Paris, for example, the National Rally candidate and MEP Thierry Mariani scored a dismal 1.6 percent of the vote in the first round on March 15, but nationwide Bardella is still the favorite for next year’s presidential election.   A Harris Interactive poll conducted after Sunday’s municipal elections confirmed Bardella’s position as frontrunner ahead of the 2027 race. Bardella would get 35 percent of the vote in the first round of voting, the survey said, 17 points ahead of the center-right contender, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. Still, the municipal election results will definitely reignite concerns among National Rally strategists about whether they really can win in a second round next year, given that the tradition of uniting against the far right in runoffs — something that helped crush Le Pen’s presidential bids in 2017 and 2022 — was on full display on Sunday. In the Mediterranean port city of Toulon, Laure Lavalette, a high-profile National Rally politician and close Le Pen ally, had a promising start in the first round of voting, winning 42 percent of the vote, 13 points ahead of the incumbent conservative mayor Josée Massi. But in Sunday’s runoff, Massi pulled ahead, benefitting from the withdrawal of a conservative candidate. The National Rally had hoped that its swell of support could break that second-round Achilles heel in these municipal elections but this perennial electoral vulnerability — that it is the party everyone gangs up against — looks set to persist. NO RESPITE FOR BARDELLA’S RIVALS The National Rally’s rivals are certainly not dismissing the far right because of its losses in the bigger cities on Sunday. Gabriel Attal, presidential hopeful and leader of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, said Sunday’s results showed a rise of the extremes, referring to not just the far-right National Rally but also the far-left France Unbowed, which won in the northeastern city of Roubaix and in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis. “It’s a warning signal,” he said. “More and more citizens, who voted for them, want things to change, and to change more quickly.” For the conservative Les Républicains, Sunday’s elections were bittersweet. The right won the mayoral jobs in several mid-sized cities including Limoges, Tulle, Brest and Clermont-Ferrand. In France’s fourth city, Toulouse, a former conservative Jean-Luc Moudenc saw off a far-left challenger from France Unbowed, backed by a left-wing coalition. Les Républicains leader Bruno Retailleau on Sunday claimed the right was “the Number One local political force” in France. Les Républicains candidate Rachida Dati at a campaign rally after the announcement of her defeat in the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal elections on March 22, 2026. | Ian Langsdon/AFP via Getty Images But the right was wiped out in Paris, where former Culture Minister Rachida Dati lost to the Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire. And in France’s second-largest city Lyon, the conservative candidate Jean-Michel Aulas, a former football club owner, lost by a narrow margin to the Green incumbent mayor. Retailleau sought to cast the conservatives as the force that could appeal to voters wanting to shut out the extremes, and slammed the National Rally as “demagogues.” There is “a French way, expressed by millions of fellow citizens who want neither the social chaos of [France Unbowed] or the budgetary disorder that the [National Rally’s] economic manifesto would bring about,” he said.  But the Les Républicains party has several presidential hopefuls and no clear path to decide which one will represent them in the presidential race. On Sunday, conservative heavyweights were already calling for the right to agree on a candidate against Bardella. This race for a single candidate to emerge in the middle ground is also likely to accelerate because former Prime Minister Philippe, buoyed by his victory against a strong Communist challenger in Le Havre in Normandy, will now be looking to promote his candidacy. Bardella, by contrast, simply tried to present the National Rally’s onward progression toward the Élysée as inevitable. Borrowing a phrase from former President François Mitterrand’s campaign in 1981 to end the right’s dominance in France, Bardella said the National Rally was now “a tranquil force.” “Our successes are not an achievement, but a beginning,” he said. Laura Kayali contributed reporting.

PARIS — Everyone seems to have something to celebrate after runoffs in municipal elections across France that offer an early glimpse of the trends that will define next year’s presidential election to replace the term-limited Emmanuel Macron. The far-right National Rally made gains in mid-sized and smaller towns in the French heartland. The beleaguered conservative Les Républicains held on to most of the cities it already controlled and even picked up a few new ones. Macron’s Renaissance party now controls Bordeaux and Annecy, its first two big local wins. The center-left Socialist Party kept control of Paris and other large metropolises, while the hard-left France Unbowed picked up several working-class suburbs at the heart of its electoral strategy. Not everyone can be a victor. So here’s our picks of Sunday night’s most prominent winners and losers. WINNERS Emmanuel Grégoire: The soft-spoken 48-year-old catapulted into the ranks of France’s most important politicians after being handily elected mayor of Paris and extending the Socialist Party’s 25-year rule of the capital. He now counts Zohran Mamdani and Sadiq Khan as his peers.  Edouard Philippe’s presidential campaign: Macron’s former prime minister is currently seen in polls as the most likely candidate to advance to the runoff in the race for the Elysée, where he’d likely face off against the front-running National Rally. He had conditioned his bid for the Élysée on winning reelection as mayor of his hometown, Le Havre — a condition that has now been fulfilled. Philippe will hope this victory further boosts his candidacy as his political camp begins to mull what the future will look like after a 10-year Macron presidency. Eric Ciotti: The new far-right mayor of Nice, the unofficial capital of the French Riviera, tried two years ago to strike a deal with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally as the head of the conservative Les Républicains. He locked himself in party headquarters to prevent a coup, but the farcical effort failed and he was booted from the movement. That gamble has paid off, handing him the keys to France’s fifth-largest city. His win is also a partial victory for Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party, which now has a powerful ally, but Ciotti’s triumph was also the result of a local rivalry. His advocacy for mass privatizations and admiration for Argentina’s chainsaw-wielding libertarian President Javier Milei also doesn’t align with Le Pen’s self-description as being “neither left nor right” and defense of parts of the welfare state. The National Rally: Party President Bardella said the National Rally “achieved the greatest breakthrough in its entire history.” Le Pen said it won dozens of cities. Eric Ciotti salutes his supporters in Nice after the results of the second round of France’s 2026 municipal elections on March 22, 2026. | Valery Hache/AFP via Getty Images LOSERS Also the National Rally: There is also reason for the far-right party to worry. The two-round voting system once again seemed to block the National Rally from victory in key targets like Nîmes and Toulon. And after a historic showing in the first round in Marseille, the party’s candidate was handily defeated in the runoff.    Emmanuel Macron: The French president had quietly thrown his weight behind Rachida Dati, his former culture minister, and former football executive Jean-Michel Aulas in Lyon. Dati conceded defeat and Aulas lost by a razor-thin margin, but he has announced a legal challenge of the result. Left-wing alliances: The hard-left France Unbowed and the center-left Socialist Party joined forces in cities across France to defend or capture town halls. But in Toulouse and Limoges — where Socialists backed France Unbowed candidates — as well as Clermont-Ferrand and Brest — where hard-left candidates supported moderates — left-wing alliances lost. The Greens: France’s environmentalists have lost control of several cities they won during the last municipal elections, held amid the Covid-19 pandemic, including the key metropolises of Strasbourg and Bordeaux. They can take some solace for now in a narrow projected win in Lyon, France’s third-largest city, and in the Alpine city of Grenoble — both secured through local alliances with France Unbowed.  François Bayrou: The centrist former prime minister, an iconic figure in French politics, lost in his own city of Pau just months after being ousted by a parliamentary no-confidence vote in September. It could mark the end of his decades-long political career.

PARIS — Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire is on course to become Paris’ next mayor, extending his party’s quarter-century rule of the French capital, according to multiple projections from pollsters. The left-wing candidate is on track to win 53.1  percent of votes in Sunday’s mayoral election runoff, per Ipsos’ initial estimate based on a partial vote count. His conservative adversary Rachida Dati is projected to come in second with 38 percent, while the hard-left candidate Sophia Chikirou is expected to come in third with 8.9 percent.  His supporters in Paris were are celebrating, singing “Emmanuel” and“On a gagné” (we won). After making a speech, he is expected to cycle to Paris city hall. Grégoire finished the first round 12 points clear of Dati, but the runoff was expected to be a tougher challenge after other right-wing candidates coalesced behind Dati’s campaign. Two candidates who qualified for the second round, the center-right former lawmaker Pierre-Yves Bournazel and far-right MEP Sarah Knafo, both left the race to avoid splitting the vote. Grégoire, however, chose not to team up with Chikirou on principle due to her party’s abrasive, confrontational approach to the local election. During the campaign, Grégoire, a protégé-turned-enemy of outgoing Mayor Anne Hidalgo, focused his message on solving the housing shortage and bringing down the cost of living. The 48-year-old had worked in Hidalgo’s administration for a decade in various top roles, including as her main deputy from 2018 until 2024, when he won a seat in the National Assembly. But Grégoire and Hidalgo’s messy falling out forced the candidate to distance himself from his former boss. That meant losing the opportunity to win votes by boasting about the successful Paris Olympics or the transformation of the banks of the Seine into a popular pedestrian area with cafés and restaurants.  The campaign got particularly heated ahead of the runoff, as he and Dati attacked each other with vitriol. Grégoire also accused President Emmanuel Macron of directly interfering to boost Dati, his former culture minister. Macron strongly rejected the assertion. 

PARIS — The far-right National Rally looks headed for defeat in Marseille’s mayoral race Sunday, according to a poll shared exclusively with POLITICO. The survey from Cluster 17 shows incumbent Mayor Benoît Payan scoring 53 percent of the vote, 14 points ahead of the National Rally’s candidate, Franck Allisio. Martine Vassal, who is backed by centrists and conservatives, is on track to get 8 percent of the vote. In the first round of voting last Sunday, Allisio and Payan were neck and neck, raising hopes among National Rally supporters that the far right could take Marseille, France’s second-largest city. But far-left candidate Sébastien Delogu, who got close to 12 percent of the vote in the first round, pulled out of the runoff in the hopes of stopping an Allisio victory. Jean-Yves Dormagen, the president of Cluster 17, said his institute’s survey showed two-thirds of those who voted for Delogu in the first round are expected to back the center-left Payan. Despite Allisio’s historically strong performance in the first round, a far-right victory in Marseille was widely seen as a long shot. Still, the loss will sting given the National Rally was hoping to gain momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential election and prove it can break the glass ceiling keeping it out of power.

PARIS — Emmanuel Grégoire looks primed to extend the Socialist Party’s quarter-century rule of Paris in Sunday’s runoff election to lead the French capital, according to a poll shared exclusively with POLITICO. The survey from Cluster 17 shows Grégoire scoring 48 percent of the vote, seven points clear of conservative challenger Rachida Dati. Sophia Chikirou of the hard-left France Unbowed would come in third with 11 percent. Grégoire finished 12 points ahead of Dati in the first round of the election last Sunday, but the former culture minister made the race far more competitive by teaming up with center-right candidate Pierre‑Yves Bournazel, who finished a disappointing fourth. The decision of far-right MEP Sarah Knafo to drop out of the race gave Dati another boost. Grégoire chose not to team up with Chikirou on principle due to her party’s abrasive, confrontational approach to the local election. France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has stoked controversy recently with his unapologetic response to the killing of a far-right activist, and later with comments that were condemned as antisemitic. Jean-Cristophe Catalon contributed to this report.

NICE, France — The story of the far right’s probable victory in the French Riviera’s capital will probably be remembered largely because of an incident involving a pig’s head. But the race in Nice is also set to have broader implications ahead of France’s presidential election in 2027, reviving debate over whether the country’s weakened, traditional conservatives could ultimately merge forces with the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. A candidate allied with the anti-immigration National Rally is on track to become mayor of France’s fifth most populous city, famed for its sweeping, palm-lined Mediterranean beachfront. Eric Ciotti, 60, led the first round with 43.4 percent of the vote. The incumbent mayor, Christian Estrosi, a former industry minister under former right-wing President Nicolas Sarkozy, scored just over 30 percent and now faces a battle to claw his way back in Sunday’s runoff. “The people of Nice have expressed a desire to turn the page … The time for change has come,” a triumphant Ciotti said after the first-round vote. His lead was fueled by local rivalries, scandal and a feud with Estrosi that stretches back decades. The campaign took an ugly turn when a pig’s head, alongside a printed slur and a Star of David, was tied to the gate of Estrosi’s home — seen as a particularly gratuitous attack since his wife is Jewish. The case has now become even murkier. Estrosi initially blamed political opponents, but investigators are now exploring whether people within his own camp may have orchestrated the crime, the prosecutor said this month. Two arrests were made. Estrosi says he is the victim of “manipulation” and that he is awaiting the outcome of the investigation. Prosecutor Damien Martinelli said there was, so far, “no evidence” implicating anyone beyond those already identified, adding that Estrosi and his wife would be questioned as witnesses. TWO RIGHTS If Ciotti wins, the victory will ripple across the whole of France, well beyond the pebble beaches of the Côte d’Azur. It’s not just a story about a big city turning to an ally of Le Pen, but also one about whether the traditional conservative camp — the party of Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac — could ultimately team up with the far right. For now, Bruno Retailleau, head of France’s main conservative party Les Républicains, has not gone that far, but his response to the bitter clash in Nice has reignited debate about whether there will ultimately be a “union of the rights” — an alliance between conservatives and nationalists. Earlier this week, he refused to endorse Estrosi for the runoff, despite the current mayor being officially backed by his party. Instead he took a “neither-nor” approach, calling on voters to follow their conscience in what he called a “harmful” campaign. What he conspicuously did not do — as earlier conservatives did — is call for Les Républicains’ voters to shun the far right. Indeed, Ciotti thanked Retailleau for his stance and hailed him as a “man of character” for not endorsing Estrosi. FRIENDS TO RIVALS Ciotti hails from Les Républicains and led the party from 2022 to 2024, before veering to the far right. He was ousted from the party leadership in a farcical coup after he proposed cooperating with Le Pen’s far right amid the snap parliamentary election of 2024. He was ultimately toppled after locking himself in party headquarters, forcing another senior party official to go and find a spare key. He now heads a micro-party, the Union of the Right for the Republic, and has secured National Rally backing on the riviera. The rivalry with Estrosi didn’t start with this campaign. Estrosi hired Ciotti as a parliamentary assistant after being elected to the French lower house in 1988, and the pair went on to work in tandem until falling out in 2017, shortly after Macron’s first election win. Estrosi quickly moved toward supporting the centrist president; while Ciotti remained a staunch opponent. Estrosi, a former professional motorcycle racer, trailed Ciotti by about 15,000 votes in the first round. He is betting that he could be bailed out by the 25,000 voters who backed left-wing candidates in the first round, as well as on the roughly 100,000 who abstained, disproportionately living in poorer neighborhoods. PRESSING THE FLESH Little wonder then that Estrosi on Wednesday afternoon was walking round a working-class district near the central train station, shaking hands and taking selfies, many with residents of North African descent despite having always called for a crackdown on immigration. The next day, he stood alongside left-leaning city councillors, pledging to speed up the city’s green transition and warning of the perils of the far right. “We can’t afford not to commit ourselves to blocking the path of what could spell disaster for a city like ours,” he said in reference to a Ciotti win. There’s certainly a good measure of opportunism here, because based on past remarks and despite recent alliances, Estrosi is hardly a moderate. Juliette Chesnel-Le Roux, the Green candidate, highlighted his track record at a press conference on Thursday: He opposed same-sex marriage — describing it as a “distraction worthy of a Las Vegas show” in 2012 — warned in 2015 of an “Islamist fifth column” in France, and claimed in 2023 that images from Gaza of mothers carrying dead infants were staged. Chesnel-Le Roux made the runoff by garnering more than 10 percent of the vote. While left-wing candidates typically withdraw to block the far right in cases where they are unable to win — as happened in nearby Marseille — she has refused to do so. For her, Estrosi and Ciotti are two sides of the same coin, and she worries that pulling out would leave the city without any opposition. On her campaign poster, she calls for a rejection of both camps with a stark “ni l’un, ni l’autre” — neither one nor the other. It is illustrated with fingers pointing at the two other candidates’ posters. “The people of Nice know that it was Estrosi who launched Ciotti,” she said. “If we pull out, who becomes the opposition? … Members of Estrosi’s group will be strongly tempted to join Ciotti.” Campaign posters in Nice. | Victor Goury-Laffont/POLITICO WHICH MODEL FOR THE RIGHT? That view is echoed by Jean-Marc Governatori, the Green candidate in the last municipal election who is now backing Ciotti after being promised a role in the future local administration. “Ninety percent of those elected on Estrosi’s list will come over to our side,” he said at a café near City Hall. “Estrosi has a tremendous capacity to rally people against him.” That may be what pushed Les Républicains’ Retailleau to ditch the current mayor in the campaign’s final stretch. A close ally, who was granted anonymity to discuss party business, said younger officials had been complaining for weeks about “the direction” of Estrosi’s campaign due to its increased overtures to the left. A Ciotti victory would force not only conservatives but also the far right to clarify their path — particularly on core economic policy. Ciotti is a fiscal hawk who wants mass privatizations and admires Argentina’s chainsaw-wielding, libertarian President Javier Milei. His strategy is to win over wealthy and business voters who once backed the traditional right. Le Pen, by contrast, describes herself as being “neither left nor right,” defends parts of the welfare state and targets less affluent voters in deindustrialized regions. But her legal troubles could bar her from running in 2027. If 30-year-old Bardella replaces her — an increasingly likely scenario — he may have to choose between those two models, and decide where the probable next mayor from Nice fits in his plans for France. Sarah Paillou contributed to this report.

PARIS — French voters head to the polls again Sunday for local runoff elections that will show which direction the wind is blowing ahead of next year’s race to replace President Emmanuel Macron. The contests are going to be tight. Many candidates who qualified for round two by scoring more than 10 percent of the vote withdrew or formed strategic alliances to give their ideological allies the best chance to win. It’s going to be spicy, but also complicated. If you want to know which cities are driven by just local issues and which ones reflect national trends like the rise of populism, read on. Here is what you need to know to follow along like a pro. WHERE SHOULD I BE WATCHING? You can ignore the more than 30,000 municipalities that were expected to choose a mayor in a single round and start with Paris. The race to lead the French capital will be a duel between Socialist Party candidate Emmanuel Grégoire and Rachida Dati of the conservative party Les Républicains. Grégoire, a protégé-turned-enemy of outgoing Mayor Anne Hidalgo, topped the first round, getting nearly 38 percent of the vote last week, well ahead of Dati’s 25 percent. But Dati managed to strike a deal with another candidate who qualified, Pierre-Yves Bournazel from the center-right Horizons. Far-right MEP Sarah Knafo, who also qualified, decided to drop out to avoid siphoning votes from Dati and is doing her utmost to ensure a candidate on the political right wins. Gr´egoire, meanwhile, chose on principle not to work with the third-place finisher, Sophia Chikirou, and her hard-left party France Unbowed. That decision could prove costly. For indicators if Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s far-right National Rally can achieve the breakthrough they’ve long sought, look to the south of France. Their ally Eric Ciotti scored 43.43 percent of the vote in Nice, the fifth-most populous city in the country, and looks primed to become the most powerful far-right mayor in France. Le Pen’s close friend Laure Lavalette came in first with 42 percent in the first round of the race to lead Toulon. But the runoff in the Mediterranean city, which is home to the French navy, will be a tough three-way race. And while the National Rally turned in a historic first-round performance in Marseille, the odds are stacked against it winning given the hard-left candidate who qualified for the runoff bowed out. His voters will likely flock to Mayor Benoît Payan, the center-left politician who won the first round against the National Rally’s Franck Allisio by a thin margin. The other major story that emerged after Sunday’s vote was the better-than-expected performance by France Unbowed, which forced the more moderate Socialist Party to team up with it despite the hard-left party’s recent controversies. Toulouse, home to European aerospace giant Airbus and France’s fourth-biggest city, could end up in the hands of France Unbowed after its candidate François Piquemal joined forces with his Socialist Party rival to oust incumbent Jean-Luc Moudenc. France Unbowed and the Socialist Party are also teaming up in Nantes, Brest and Clermont-Ferrand. While these alliances could lead to victories, their critics say they’re short-sighted and offer France Unbowed’s firebrand leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon the opportunity to build political momentum ahead of next year’s presidential election. HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT There’s a limit to what can be said before the vote. From Saturday, candidates won’t be allowed to campaign and the media won’t be able to report on polls until after the vote. Voting begins at 8 a.m. on Sunday. Polls close as early as 6 p.m. in smaller cities and as late as 8 p.m. in bigger ones like Paris and Marseille. Once the vote is over, the campaign restrictions and media blackout lifts, and pollsters will immediately release their first estimates. These aren’t exit polls like you’d see in the United States, but an analysis of early voting results that are typically representative enough to give a sense of how a city voted. France’s interior ministry will gradually release official results during the night and until Monday morning. Results in cities that have adopted voting machines will come quicker. Ça va sans dire, the best place to follow the vote is POLITICO’s live blog, which will be back from Sunday. IT’S NOT ONLY ABOUT MAYORS Wannabe mayors are running alongside a host of candidates trying to get a seat in city councils. Seats are distributed proportionally to each list based on their vote share, except for the winning list which, in most towns, automatically gets a majority. Things work differently in France’s three biggest cities, Paris, Marseille and Lyon, where the winning list is only guaranteed a quarter of the seats. City councils also indirectly have a say on national politics as they represent a key chunk of the electoral college, made up of around 162,000 officials, which elects French senators. Half the seats in the senate are contested every three years, with the next vote happening in September. So far, the National Rally and the France Unbowed had little representation in the senate given their historical weakness at the local level. But that’s another thing that could change after Sunday’s vote.

PARIS — Former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is on track to win reelection as mayor of Le Havre, according to polling shared exclusively with POLITICO. The survey from Cluster 17 showed Philippe, who is running for French president next year, netting 47 percent of the vote in the runoff on Sunday. His main challenger from the Communist Party, Jean-Paul Lecoq, scored 39 percent in the poll. The far-right National Rally’s Franck Keller came in third with 14 percent. Should those numbers hold in the vote, it will be a major sigh of relief for Philippe. A poll released before the first round of the election last Sunday showed Philippe in danger of losing to Lecoq, which would have imperiled his presidential aspirations. Philippe is widely viewed as the centrist candidate with the best chance of beating the far right in the race for the Elysée. Philippe had already managed to temper predictions of doom and gloom by turning in a strong performance in the first round, beating Lecoq by nearly 10 points. Clea Caulcutt contributed to this report.