LONDON — Since Labour swept into office last year, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband
has traveled the country enthusing over the government’s dream of a humming,
futuristic net-zero economy.
The good news, according to polling released Wednesday, is that his vision still
has the backing of the public.
The bad news is that support is slipping — and voters aren’t convinced Miliband
is the guy to deliver it.
For Miliband’s political opponents, this validates their wider attacks on him as
an out-of-touch climate warrior, flogging a net-zero dream voters have rejected.
At Reform’s party conference Friday, party chair David Bull referenced “mad Ed
swivel-eyed Milliband.” Not to be outdone, the Conservatives have vowed to
squeeze every molecule of oil and gas from beneath the North Sea, deadly
heatwaves be damned.
But it also shines a light on a confusing feature of British politics: a
misalignment between the stories politicians want to tell about efforts to stop
climate change, and stuff the public actually care about.
At Reform’s party conference Friday, the party chair David Bull referenced “mad
Ed swivel-eyed Milliband.” | Leon Neal/Getty Images
The polling, conducted by progressive think tank More in Common and the Climate
Outreach NGO, found the number of people who think reaching net-zero emissions
will be good for the U.K. vastly outnumber those who think it will have a
negative effect — 48 percent versus 16 percent.
More people feel that the shift to clean energy has been fair than unfair. In
Scotland, more are proud of the offshore wind industry (63 percent) than the oil
and gas industry (54 percent).
“Those who seek to divide communities with climate disinformation will not win
because they do not represent the interests or values of the British people,”
Miliband said in a statement shared with the media.
Despite this, voters are hesitant about the personal impact of a country rushing
to go green. Seventy-four percent of people think the U.K.’s commitment to reach
net-zero emissions by 2050 will eventually cost them money personally. The gap
between those who think it will be beneficial for the U.K. versus harmful has
shrunk by 20 points in only a year.
This is frequently interpreted as a sign that a personal desire to help fix the
climate is butting up against the hard realities of net zero, which requires
changes like fitting millions of heat pumps and EV chargers and overhauling the
energy grid.
Further polling released by The Times Tuesday backs up the sense voters are
growing more divided on climate change. It shows support for net zero collapsing
among Reform and Conservative voters, while overall the issue has slipped from
voters’ list of top concerns.
But analysts from Climate Outreach said part of the problem isn’t the message
but the messengers.
“Politicians are not well trusted to speak about climate,” the NGO said in an
analysis shared with POLITICO. In fact, elected leaders were the least trusted
carriers of the climate message — beneath also-lowly ranked protesters and
energy company executives.
TRUST ISSUES
Voter wariness about pro-climate messages isn’t a feature of green politics in
particular, said Emma James, a researcher at Climate Outreach, but a symptom of
broader public cynicism about government.
“They don’t trust that politicians are there for people like them. Some audience
segments feel that the system is rigged against them,” she said.
It’s not net zero the public aren’t buying, it’s the ability of this government
— or any government — to deliver it. Voters believe the NHS remains broken.
National projects like high-speed rail lines and nuclear power stations keep
being delayed at higher and higher costs.
This creates a problem for Miliband. At a time of deep voter skepticism, his
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) is pursuing precisely that
kind of major national project — involving upfront costs, disruption and complex
trade-offs, with the promise of huge savings to private and public purses down
the line. It will, Miliband argues, generate new jobs.
Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives went in search of their own set of climate
salespeople. | Carl Court/Getty Images
“We will win this fight by showing the visible benefits of the clean energy
transition,” insisted one Labour official, granted anonymity to discuss the
government’s internal deliberations.
The story of failure, however, is pervasive and self-reinforcing, said Richard
Johnson, a political scientist at Queen Mary University of London.
“Policy delivery has to be tied in with a compelling political narrative and the
political leadership that can tell that story and interpret what people are
seeing in front of their eyes,” he said. “I wonder now if there is such a high
level of cynicism … that even if you did tell a compelling narrative around
policy delivery, that people would not believe it.”
Johnson lays the blame with Miliband’s boss, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer,
“who has been in a way almost catastrophically unable to put together a
compelling narrative for his government. Or, quite frankly, even his own
leadership.” Downing Street says it is focused on driving economic growth across
the country.
This is not isolated to Labour. Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives went in
search of their own set of climate salespeople — before deciding that there was
more political capital in ditching pro-climate policies.
Climate Outreach said Miliband could turn this problem into an “opportunity,” as
long as he laid off the grand projet and focused on the visible, local benefits
of climate policies.
And there is some evidence that Labour gets it, seen in the government’s move to
chip in for the energy bills of people living in sight of unpopular new
electricity pylons.
The more conservative or skeptical parts of the British electorate still had
deep enthusiasm for messages about protecting the environment, the pollsters
said. But most important, the NGO argued, was bringing other voices into the
frame.
While politicians are viewed very dimly indeed, experts and scientists are seen
as credible messengers, the polling shows. So too are those seen to understand
what life is like for normal British people. Farmers were among the messengers
who cut through most with traditionalists and those described by the pollsters
as “patriots.”
Jeremy Clarkson, DESNZ needs you.