LONDON — Brits voted for Brexit because of immigration. Now they want to turn back the clock. By a whopping two-to-one margin, voters now favor the pre-2021 immigration system to the one that has taken shape since leaving the EU, according to striking new polling commissioned by POLITICO. Some 41 percent of the public say they would prefer “Britain’s immigration policy prior to leaving the European Union” versus just 19 percent who want “Britain’s current immigration policy, implemented since leaving the European Union,” the polling conducted by More in Common found. Immigration loomed large in the 2016 EU referendum campaign, with the Leave camp’s “breaking point” posters and rows about free movement making headlines throughout the build-up to the vote. The idea was that leaving the bloc would give Britain back “control” of its borders and create a fairer system. But the widespread perception is that’s not how it turned out. Split by party, left-leaning Green voters are the most keen on turning the clock back, with 60 percent preferring the old system versus 16 percent the current one. Labour and the Lib Dems aren’t far behind, with 46 percent and 49 percent yearning for the pre-Brexit days respectively. But even the Euroskeptics backing Nigel Farage’s Reform party refuse to endorse the current arrangements, with 37 percent backing the pre-Brexit approach, just 21 percent favoring the post-Brexit system, and an unusually high 42 percent saying they don’t know. WISTFULLY LOOKING BACK? But the results don’t necessarily mean voters are desperate for a return to EU-style freedom of movement, according to researchers whom POLITICO asked about the figures. Since leaving the EU, the U.K. hasn’t just ditched free movement with the bloc, it has also significantly liberalized its rest-of-world visa system — resulting in a large increase in migration from other countries. Net migration to the U.K. was 431,000 in 2024 — significantly higher than rates in the 2010s when numbers “typically fluctuated between 200,000 and 300,000,” according to an analysis by Oxford University’s Migration Observatory. Even the Euroskeptics backing Nigel Farage’s Reform party refuse to endorse the current arrangements. | Jack Taylor/Getty Images Levels were even higher in 2022 and 2023, and some commentators have taken to calling this increase the “Boriswave” — after the PM who brought in the new system. According to Sophie Stowers, research manager at More in Common, the results are unlikely to be a reflection of people “wistfully looking back at a time of free movement.” Instead, she says, immigration “has risen in salience since 2020, partly because of increases in net migration caused by reforms to the migration system that people are unhappy with, but also because of the surge in small boat crossings.” As well as losing their reciprocal rights to live and work in other European countries, British voters haven’t even seen lower levels of migration to Britain — creating a situation where nobody of any political persuasion is happy. Marley Morris, associate director at the IPPR think tank, said the results appear to reflect “nostalgia from the public for our pre-Brexit immigration model,” but added it would be “rash to assume this means there is public appetite for a return to free movement of people.” “The overall preference for the pre-Brexit system is most likely the combined result of, on the one hand, the longstanding cohort of Remain supporters continuing to back a pro-EU position, alongside a wider frustration with recent immigration policy, including among those who voted leave.” So nobody’s happy, but not necessarily for the same reasons. RATING OUTCOMES Georgina Sturge, data consultant at Oxford’s Migration Observatory and author of the book “Bad Data: How Governments, Politicians and the Rest of Us Get Misled by Numbers,” said the results must be interpreted carefully. “The key question for us is to what extent people are rating immigration systems based on a robust understanding of their different features, and how much of it is just people going off a vague impression — in other words, which systems give them good and bad vibes?” she said. “People’s knowledge of the ins and outs of different immigration systems is very limited on the whole.” This much is obvious from More in Common’s results. POLITICO also had the pollster ask people what immigration systems they liked and disliked. The most popular was an “Australian-style points-based immigration system,” with a net 46 percent support. The least popular was “Britain’s current immigration policy,” with -39 percent support. Net migration to the U.K. was 431,000 in 2024 — significantly higher than higher than rates in the 2010s. | Krisztian Elek/Getty Images Just one problem: Since leaving the EU, the U.K.’s immigration policy has literally been an Australian-style points-based immigration system. “Getting people to rate these different options doesn’t necessarily tell us what system people would actually prefer but rather how positively or negatively they rate the association it conjures up in their mind,” Sturge said. “People’s understanding of the true differences between the two systems is limited. They’re rating outcomes.” “Even if people have a better impression of immigration in the pre-Brexit era, the government cannot turn back the clock,” Sturge added. “Most obviously, the small boats route did not exist for most of the pre-Brexit period, and successive governments have failed to eliminate it — and rejoining the EU would not eliminate it either. The same arguments against being part of EU free movement would no doubt also resurface if a serious discussion about rejoining were to start up.”

LONDON – Britain’s opposition parties have pledged to shred Keir Starmer’s EU reset if they get into power. The U.K. public would rather they didn’t. Polling commissioned by POLITICO shows the government’s agri-food deal agreed in principle with Brussels is popular with Remainers and Leavers alike — even when they’re told it means following EU rules. Nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) of voters back the deal, which would realign EU and U.K. food standards, versus just 22 percent who are opposed, the representative survey of 2,037 British adults conducted by More in Common Sept. 13-15 found. Predictably, those who voted Remain in the EU referendum backed the deal by a huge margin — with 78 percent in favor. But even 50 percent of Leave voters are keen. Poll respondents were explicitly warned that the agreement “means we will be bound to European regulations on these products” — but most didn’t seem to care. The government says the SPS or “sanitary and phytosanitary” agreement will smooth trade in food, animals and other plant products like flowers by eliminating the need for much red tape at the border. The benefits could be lower prices, less fragile supply chains and more choice, ministers argue — as well as simpler Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland. The quid pro quo would be that the U.K. would once again have to follow EU rules; this time with little say in what they are. The poll adds to the mounting pile of evidence that while Brexit concerns about migration have always had popular purchase in the U.K., dogma about regulatory alignment has always been more of an elite obsession. ON THE FRONT FOOT People who voted Labour and Liberal Democrat in the last election are most enthusiastic about the arrangements — which ministers hope will take effect from 2027. Some 83 percent and 78 percent back the idea respectively. Tories and Green voters support it to the tune of 57 percent and 69 percent each. Only the slice of the population who backed Reform in the 2024 general election is against the plan — by a narrower 50 percent against to 42 percent in favor. The state of public opinion on the matter likely explains why Labour has chosen to use the agreement to take the fight to Nigel Farage’s Reform and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative parties. After years of minimizing its EU policy for fear of upsetting swing voters, in recent months Starmer’s party has used the fruits of his EU “reset” to go on the attack — whereas on other briefs it has increasingly found itself on the back foot. “Kemi Badenoch said she’d reverse the deal I’d struck before it had been struck, and before she’d even read it. The Tories and Farage are fighting yesterday’s battles,” the government’s normally mild-mannered EU Relations Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds thundered at the party’s conference earlier this week. “They’d rather shout slogans and peddle snake oil politics.” Thomas-Symonds last month made similar arguments on enemy territory, delivering a speech at Tory house journal the Spectator in which he presented the government and its EU reset as the real defender of free trade and the scourge of business red tape. The Reform and Conservative party press offices didn’t respond to requests for comment on the polling results, but one Labour source said the opposition parties’ plans to scrap the agreement had a “cooked 2016 aura” about it. “Nigel Farage and the Tories want to rip up a deal that benefits jobs and bills in the United Kingdom, and all because they are incapable of bringing themselves to have any relationship with Europe,” they added.