LONDON — Downing Street on Thursday brushed off London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s call for Labour to take Britain back into the European Union. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spokesperson told reporters that the government’s manifesto promises not to unpick Brexit “still stand.” The Labour mayor of London had told Italian newspaper La Repubblica that the U.K. should seek to get back into the EU’s customs union and single market “during this parliament” — and then push to rejoin the bloc wholesale. “We should rejoin the customs union this parliament … we should rejoin the single market. We should try and do this during this parliament,” he told the newspaper. “And then we should, as a Labour Party, fight the next general election with a clear manifesto commitment, a vote for Labour means we would rejoin the European Union.” Khan, whose city London voted strongly to remain in the EU in 2016, said the damage Brexit had done had made the U.K. rejoining the bloc “inevitable.” But asked about the mayor’s comments Thursday, the prime minister’s spokesperson told a regular briefing of journalists in Westminster: “The government’s red lines that are set out in the manifesto stand.” The spokesperson added that the manifesto was valid for “the duration of the parliament” and when pushed on future plans said: “We’re not going to write the manifesto for the next election here.” Khan is the most senior Labour figure thus far to broach the topic of the U.K. rejoining the bloc — with the issue still considered a political hot potato in Westminster. It comes after Chancellor Rachel Reeves Tuesday said the U.K. should align with EU rules in areas where it is in its economic interest to do so. Starmer’s government is already negotiating an agrifood deal, an electricity trading deal, and a youth mobility agreement with the bloc — as well as beefing up cooperation on security and climate action. But Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU customs union, single market, or reintroducing free movement of people with the bloc. U.K. public opinion has tuned sharply against Brexit in the near decade since the 2016 vote, with the latest survey from YouGov this week showing 54 percent of Brits support rejoining the bloc versus 34 percent who oppose doing so, with 12 percent undecided.

LONDON — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán warned the U.K. that it needs to get tougher on irregular migration to protect the country’s borders. Orbán admitted border control was “not the nicest job” but essential to ensure only those permitted could enter a country. Speaking to the right-wing broadcaster GB News, the Hungarian leader was insistent that only a hard-line approach deters people from crossing irregularly. The U.K. government has struggled to combat irregular small boat crossings across the English Channel. Between 2018 and 2025, around 193,000 people were detected crossing, with the yearly peak hitting 46,000 in 2022. Asked for his advice on stopping migration, Orbán told the TV channel his secret was “determination.” “So if you decide that you stop them, stop them. So sometimes it’s not the nicest job, but if you decide that this is our borderline and nobody can cross it without our permission, you have to keep the line. You have to do so.” Last year, around 41,000 people entered the U.K. on small boats, with more than 3,000 people crossing the channel so far in 2026. Around 95 percent of people who arrive go on to claim asylum and are often housed in hotels, which has caused widespread controversy. “In Hungary, it’s very simple,” Orbán said. “If somebody is crossing the borderline without getting the permission prior of that from the authorities, it’s a crime and we treat them as crime makers.” London struck a  “one in, one out” agreement with Paris last July, which meant undocumented migrants arriving on small boats could be removed in exchange for asylum seekers who had a U.K. connection. However, this plan faced criticism after a man deported under the scheme returned to Britain, as well as for the treatment of those who returned to France. Pushed on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Tory predecessor Rishi Sunak were too weak in their approach to migration, Orbán said: “I’m not as brave to criticize any leader of the U.K.”

DUBLIN — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has finally found a friendly voice in the White House— albeit one that speaks with an Irish accent. When Taoiseach Micheál Martin visited the U.S. presidential mansion on Tuesday for St. Patrick’s Day, Donald Trump took the opportunity at their joint press conference to renew his verbal attacks on Starmer over the U.K. leader’s unwillingness to join the U.S.-Israeli air assault on Iran. Referencing a bust over his shoulder of Britain’s World War II leader, the president repeated his insult that Starmer “is no Winston Churchill.” The ultra-diplomatic and soft-spoken Martin picked that moment to interrupt a nearly 20-minute monologue from Trump bashing Iran and NATO. Martin noted that he had just hosted a productive summit with Starmer and other senior U.K. ministers in his home city, Cork. He credited the Labour leader with doing much to repair Anglo-Irish relations ravaged by Brexit. And he gently reminded Trump that not so long ago, he had been singing Starmer’s praises. “Keir Starmer has done a lot to reset the Irish-British relationship. I just want to put that on the record,” Martin told Trump, a crystal bowl filled with shamrock on the table between them. “I do believe that he’s a very earnest, sound person that you have a capacity to get along with. You’ve got along with him before.” Martin then pivoted to criticism of Iran in the hope of averting a hostile comeback from his host. It appeared to work, as Trump resumed bashing NATO — and didn’t utter a single syllable critical of Ireland, which doesn’t even belong to the transatlantic military alliance. Irish officials confirmed to POLITICO that Martin had been determined not to repeat the perceived mistake of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz when he visited the White House earlier this month. Merz failed to defend Starmer and other European allies when Trump belittled them in similar terms, drawing sharp rebukes from the Spanish government. Martin pulled off a second display of polite pushback on Tuesday after Trump repeated claims that Europe was threatened by immigration: “It’s a different place. Bad things have happened to Europe.” Martin tapped Trump on the thigh to get his attention. “Europe is still a very good place to live,” Martin said, prompting laughter in the room as Trump retorted: “I’m glad to hear that!” Martin then expanded on why Europe is so popular with migrants, noting the EU’s “free mobility of people” and how it allows Ireland to attract newcomers “from Europe and beyond” to swell its rapidly growing workforce. “Fundamentally, sometimes Europe gets characterized wrongly in terms of it being overrun,” he said in apparent reference to claims the Trump administration has made, including in the president’s sit-down interview with POLITICO last December. The visiting Irish press pack, perhaps disappointed to have no anti-Irish comments from Trump, twice tried to ask him about Irish President Catherine Connolly’s recent condemnations of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran. Connolly — elected in October on an anti-government mandate — is a largely ceremonial head of state who plays no role in Ireland’s government. But Trump made it clear he had no clue who Connolly might be, far less her criticisms. “Who said that?” Trump asked a reporter, only to be told, without reference to Connolly’s gender, that it was Ireland’s president. “Look. He’s lucky I exist, that’s all I can say,” Trump said.

LONDON — Brexit was “a colossal mistake” and the U.K. should rejoin the European Union, Alexander Stubb said Tuesday.   But instead of waiting for that to happen, London and Brussels should work together now to deepen their relationship in key areas such as defense and intelligence sharing, trade and access to the single market, and technology and innovation, the Finnish president said.  Speaking at the Chatham House think tank during a visit to London, he said the chaotic state of the world in which the old, rules-based order no longer holds should prompt a radical rethink of the EU-U.K. relationship.  “I think Brexit was a colossal mistake,” said former London student Stubb, who has a British wife and children with dual nationality. “I am too diplomatic to express exactly what I think about those who promoted Brexit during the campaign, and those who still say that Brexit is a good thing … But I do think it’s not only shooting yourself in the foot, but it’s like amputating your leg without medical reason for doing it.”  Stubb said he recognized that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not aim to rejoin the EU but argued that Brits and Europeans should be “pragmatic” now and show flexibility on both sides.  Negotiations have been ongoing over moves toward deepening the partnership between London and Brussels since Starmer’s Labour won power in 2024, but progress has been held back over disagreements over youth mobility programs, student fees and how much the U.K. should pay to take part in an arms investment package.  “We need a U.K. voice in Europe. We really miss you guys,” Stubb said. “I should probably express my view that it took you seven years to negotiate yourselves out of the EU, it will take you seven years to regret it, and then seven years to come back in. I hope.” Stubb said British membership of the EU’s customs union should be possible, alongside participation in the single market. Red lines during years of Brexit negotiations meant the U.K. left both structures five years ago, under a bare bones deal that Boris Johnson negotiated.  “We need to be super pragmatic,” he said, instead of Europeans thinking they should “continue to punish” the U.K. for leaving the bloc. “Get out of the mindset that the U.K. should not be a part of the customs union, or the U.K. should not be a part of the internal market. Think about a flexible way of dealing with it.” More broadly, Stubb suggested the EU should reform its structures to allow more flexibility in the way member countries work together, and work with states that are not formal members of the EU.  He said Iceland is renewing its interest in becoming a member, he’d like to see Norway join the bloc, and he joked to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that Canada should also take a look at EU membership when the pair went running together on Tuesday morning in London. 

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Energy markets are on edge as Iran tensions disrupt shipping and threaten supply shocks. EU foreign ministers and energy ministers meet in Brussels to discuss what the bloc can actually do to protect global energy flows — and whether it has the tools to act. Meanwhile, Norway is positioning itself as a reliable energy lifeline as the geopolitical turmoil puts security of supply back in focus. And the U.K.’s Brexit minister is in town as the EU asks Britain to lower the tuition fees it charges students from the bloc before Brussels and London can move forward with a “Brexit reset.” Zoya Sheftalovich and Kathryn Carlson break it all down. If you have questions for us, or want to share your thoughts on the show, you can reach us on our WhatsApp at +32 491 05 06 29.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Sunday that a potential Polish exit from the European Union is now a “real threat,” accusing nationalist President Karol Nawrocki and right-wing opposition parties of steering the country toward leaving the bloc. In a post on X, Tusk said both factions of the far-right Confederation alliance and most lawmakers from the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party wanted to push Poland out of the EU. He called such a scenario “a catastrophe” and vowed to “do everything” to stop it. Tusk also linked the risk of “Polexit” to forces seeking to “break up the EU,” which he said included Russia, the American MAGA movement and European far-right leaders led by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. The warning comes after Nawrocki vetoed legislation on Thursday that would have allowed Poland to access up to €43.7 billion in low-interest EU defense loans. Tusk’s government lacks the parliamentary majority needed to override the veto, deepening uncertainty over how Poland will finance planned military spending that is set to reach nearly 5 percent of gross domestic product this year. Tusk has warned that Nawrocki’s veto could weaken Poland’s position inside the EU. On Friday, former PiS Europe Minister Konrad Szymański wrote in a newspaper commentary that Poland’s nationalist right was drifting onto a “road toward Polexit,” drawing parallels with the political dynamics that preceded Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the bloc. Recent polling suggests support for Poland’s quitting the EU remains weak in the country, but it is no longer marginal. Surveys indicate roughly one in 10 to one in four Poles would back launching an exit process, even as strong majorities still favor continued membership.

LONDON — Brussels is insisting that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer agree to a cut in tuition fees for EU students as the price of his Brexit reset, according to two officials familiar with the state of negotiations. EU officials say they are frustrated that the U.K. is yet to engage on the topic in talks — which are meant to finish by the summer. “It needs to be worked out before talks can be concluded,” one EU official told POLITICO. “There is some frustration on our side that we haven’t reached a point in negotiations where this issue has been openly discussed.” The EU official added that a cut in fees for European students was “a very key point for our member states” and “a clear interest for us.” Before Brexit, EU students paid “home” U.K. tuition fees of about £9,500 a year in England — but are now subject to eye-watering “international” rates that can lock out all but the wealthiest students. Overseas rates can range from roughly double the U.K. rate for some courses to huge sums for the most prestigious degrees, such as the £62,820 a year international fee to study computer science at Oxford University. Under pressure from its member countries, the EU wants fees cut for Europeans studying in the U.K. as part of talks to set up a “youth experience” scheme. But Starmer and his negotiators are under pressure from British universities not to accede to the demand. Universities say they will face a cash crisis if lucrative foreign fee income is cut and not replaced, with one recently published analysis by the Russell Group suggesting the sector would be left £580 million out of pocket. A U.K. official said the home fees demand wasn’t mentioned in the “common understanding” drawn up as a blueprint for talks last year — and that negotiations are about implementing that document. The agreement does not explicitly mention tuition fees and only says the youth scheme should “facilitate the participation of young people from the European Union and the United Kingdom” in areas including study. But the EU official quoted above said that, while it was debatable whether the change was alluded to in last year’s communique, it was nevertheless the EU’s position. They stressed that other issues under discussion, like the planned agri-food agreement or linking emissions trading systems, were largely U.K. “asks” — and that the EU also had its own interest to pursue. “It’s important to look at the position from the other side,” they added. A U.K. government spokesperson said: “We will not give a running commentary on ongoing talks.” They added: “We are working together with the EU to create a balanced youth experience scheme which will create new opportunities for young people to live, work, study and travel. “Any final scheme must be time-limited, capped and will be based on our existing youth mobility schemes, which do not include access to home tuition fee status.”

BRITAIN’S LABOUR PARTY STARES INTO THE ABYSS IN ITS WELSH HEARTLAND In the old coalfields of south Wales, Britain’s center-left establishment faces being crushed by a nationalist left and populist right. POLITICO went to find out why. By DAN BLOOM and SASCHA O’SULLIVAN in Newport, South Wales Photo-Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO Eluned Morgan, the Welsh first minister, stood in a sunbeam at Newport’s Victorian market and declared: “Wales is ready for a new chapter.” Many voters agree. The problem for Morgan is: few think she’ll be the one to write it. This nation of 3 million people, with its coalfields, docks, mountains and farms, is the deepest heartland of Morgan’s center-left Labour Party. Labour has topped every U.K. general election here for 104 years and presided over the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, since establishing it 27 years ago. Yet Senedd elections on May 7 threaten not only to end this world-record winning streak, but leave Welsh Labour fighting for a reason to exist. One YouGov poll in January put the party joint-fourth with the Conservatives on 10 percent, behind Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru on 37 percent, Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK on 23 percent and the Greens on 13 percent. Other polls are less dramatic (one last week had Reform and Plaid equal, and Labour a closer third), but the mood remains stark.  The most common projection for the 96-seat Senedd is a Plaid minority government propped up by Labour — blowing a hole in Labour’s status as the default governing party and safe vote to stop the right, and echoing recent by-elections in Caerphilly (won by Plaid) and Manchester (won by Greens). POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across Labour, Plaid and Reform. | Dan Bloom/POLITICO It would raise the simple question, said a senior Welsh Labour official granted anonymity to speak frankly: “What is the point in this party?’” POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across Labour, Plaid and Reform, including interviews with all three of their Welsh leaders, for this piece and an episode of the Westminster Insider podcast. The conversations painted a vivid picture of a center-left establishment fighting for survival in an election that could echo far beyond Wales. While in the 1980s Welsh Labour could unite voters against Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives, now it is battling demographic changes, a decline in unionized heavy industry and an anti-incumbent backlash. All have killed old loyalties and habits. Squeezed by Plaid and Greens to their left and Reform to their right, some in Labour see parallels with other mainstream postwar parties facing a reckoning across Europe. This week, Germany’s conservative Christian Democrats and center-left Social Democrats lost to the Greens in the car production region of Baden-Württemberg; the latter barely scraped 5 percent. In the recent Manchester by-election, the Conservatives lost their deposit. Welsh Labour MPs fear a reckoning. One said: “We will have to start again. We rebuild. We figure out, what does Welsh Labour mean in 2026? What do we stand for?” NEW CHAPTER, SAME AUTHOR It takes Morgan 20 minutes to walk the 500 meters from Newport Market to our interview. Some passers-by flag her down; others she ambushes. We pass a baked goods shop (“Ooh, Gregg’s! That’s what I want!”) and Morgan emerges with a latte, though not with one of the chain’s famous sausage rolls. She introduces herself to one woman as “Eluned Morgan, first minister of Wales.” Her target looks vaguely bemused.  After the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame when things go wrong. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’ Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal. “I didn’t have a mandate really, because I was just kind of thrown in,” she tells POLITICO midway up the high street. “I thought, right, I need a program, so I went out on the streets and took my program directly from the public without any filter.”  She is selling a nuts-and-bolts offer of new railway stations, a £2 bus fare cap and same-day mental health care. Morgan casts herself as the experienced option to beat what she calls the “separatists” of Plaid and the “concerning” rise of populism. She means Reform, which wants to scrap net zero targets and cut 580 Welsh civil service jobs. Yet paradoxically, she also paints herself as a vessel for change. “[People] want to see change faster,” she said in John Frost Square, named after the leader of an 1839 uprising that demanded voting rights for all men. She wants to show “delivery” and “hope.” Dimitri Batrouni, Newport Council’s Labour leader, suggested an Amazonification of politics is under way. “Our lives commercially are instant,” he said. “I want something, I order it, it’s delivered to my house … people quite naturally want that in their governments.” But after 27 years, many voters are rolling the dice on delivery elsewhere. Welsh Labour is promising to end homelessness by 2034, but previously made the same pledge by 2026. Around 6,900 people are still waiting two years or more for NHS treatment (though this figure was 10 times higher during the Covid-19 pandemic). Education rankings slumped in 2023. At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel Farage.” ‘SHIT, WELL, HE DIDN’T CALL ME’ Much of this anger is pointed at Westminster — which is why Labour has long tried to show a more socialist face to Wales.  It was the seat of Labour co-founder Keir Hardie as well as of Nye Bevan, who launched Britain’s National Health Service in 1948. “Welsh Labour” was born out of the first Senedd-style elections in 1999, when Plaid surged in south Wales heartlands while Tony Blair’s New Labour appealed to the middle classes. For years, this deliberate rebranding worked; Labour pulled through with the most seats even when the Tories ruled Westminster. Yet in 2024, the party boasted of “two Labour governments at both ends of the M4” — in London and in Cardiff — working in harmony. The emphasis soon flipped back when things went wrong in No. 10; Morgan promised a “red Welsh way” last May. She is “trying to find our identity again,” said the MP quoted above. Morgan appeared to disown the “both ends of the M4” approach, while declining to call it a mistake. “Look, that was a decision before I became first minister,” she said. A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’ Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images She tries to be playful in distancing herself from Keir Starmer. “He came down a couple of weeks ago and I was very clear with him, if you’re coming you need to bring something with you. Fair play, he brought £14 billion of investment,” she said. “If he wants to come again, he’ll have to bring me more money.” But she has also hitched herself to Starmer for now — unlike Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who has called for the PM to go. As we sat down, Morgan professed surprise at news that Sarwar called several Cabinet ministers beforehand. “Did he! Shit, well, he didn’t call me,” she said. “Look at the state of the world at the moment; actually what we need is stability,” she added. “We need the grown-ups in the room to be in charge, and I do think Keir Starmer is a grown-up.” ‘ELUNED WASN’T HAPPY’ Morgan has mounted a fightback since Plaid won October’s Caerphilly by-election.  She has hired Matt Greenough, a strategist who worked on London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s re-election campaign last year, said three people with knowledge of the appointment. One of the people said: “During Caerphilly, it became quite clear there were a lot of problems. Eluned wasn’t happy with Welsh Labour or the way the campaign was running. She did a lot of lobbying and got the Welsh executive to basically give her complete power over the campaign.” Morgan “was angry that the central party [in London] took control of the Caerphilly by-election,” another of the people added. (A Morgan ally disputed this reading of events, saying she would always take a bigger role as the election drew near, and that a wide range of Labour figures are involved in the campaign committee such as a Westminster MP, Torsten Bell.) Morgan also has more support these days from Labour’s MPs — who pushed last year for her to focus less on Plaid and more on Reform. That lobbying may have been a mistake, the MP quoted above admits now. “We were quite naive in thinking that the progressives would back us,” this MP said. Privately, Labour politicians and officials in Wales say the mood and prospects are better than the start of 2026. Though asked if Labour would win the most seats in the Senedd, Batrouni said: “Let’s look and see. It’s not looking good in the polls but … politics changes so quickly.” IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT KEIR STARMER The harsh reality is that Labour’s base in Wales began slipping long before Starmer, rooted in deindustrialization since the 1970s and 80s. Newport, near England on the M4 corridor, has a measure of prosperity that other parts of Wales do not. The 137-year-old market has had a makeover, Microsoft is building data centers and U.S. giant Vishay runs Britain’s biggest semiconductor plant. Here Labour is mostly expecting a fight between itself and Reform. At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel Farage.” | Jon Rowley/Getty Images Wales’ west coast and north west are more Plaid-dominated, with more Welsh speakers and independence supporters. But support for nationalists is spreading in the southern valleys. “All across the valleys you’re seeing places where Labour has dominated for 100 years plus but is now in deep, deep crisis,” said Richard Wyn Jones, professor of Welsh politics at Cardiff University. “It has long been the case that a lot of Labour supporters have had a very positive view of Plaid Cymru — they just didn’t have a reason to vote for them until now.” Wyn Jones attributes the change to trends across northern Europe, where traditional left-wing parties have been “unmoored” from working-class occupations. A growing service sector has brought more white-collar voters with socially liberal values. Carmen Smith, a 29-year-old Plaid campaigner who is the House of Lords’ youngest-ever peer, said Brexit had unhitched young, left-leaning voters from the idea of British patriotism: “There are a lot more young people identifying as Welsh rather than British.”  And after the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame when things go wrong.  All the while, a left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour voters is turning to Reform UK. At the Tumble Inn, a Wetherspoons chain pub in the valley town of Pontypridd, retired gas engineer Paul Jones remembered: “You could leave one job, walk a couple of hundred yards and start another job … it was a totally different world. I wish we could get it back, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.” He hasn’t voted for years but plans to back Reform. THEY’VE BLOWN UP THE MAP All these changes will be turbocharged by a new electoral map. A previous Labour first minister, Mark Drakeford, introduced a more proportional voting system which will see voters elect six Senedd members in each of 16 super-constituencies. The results will reflect the mood better than U.K. general elections (Labour won 84 percent of Wales’ seats on a 37 percent vote share in 2024), but create a volatile outcome. In the mega-constituency for eastern Cardiff, Wyn Jones believes the six seats could be won by six parties: Labour, Plaid, Reform, the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats. Ironically, said the Labour MP quoted above, Welsh Labour is now polling so badly that it could actually win more seats under the new system than the old one. Trying to win the sixth seat in each super-constituency will hoover up many resources. The size of each patch changes how parties campaign, said Plaid’s Westminster leader Liz Savile Roberts: “We’ve had to go to places that I’ve never been to.” And the scale means activists have a weaker connection to the candidates they campaign for — compounded in Labour by many Senedd members stepping down. Just six people turned up to one recent Labour door-knocking session in a heartland seat. A left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour voters is turning to Reform UK. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images After May 8, the new system will make coalitions or informal support deals more necessary to command a Senedd majority. Morgan declined to say if she would support Plaid’s £400 million-a-year offer to expand free childcare (which Labour says is unfunded), rather than see it voted down. “I’m certainly not getting into hypotheticals,” she said. “I’m in this to win it.”  Her rivals have other ideas. THE PRESIDENT IS COMING On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words: “New leadership for Wales.” The former BBC presenter, who took over Plaid’s leadership in 2023, strained not to make his February conference look like a premature victory lap. Members could’ve been fooled. They struggled to find parking. There were more lobbyists; more journalists. It is a slow burn for a party founded in 1925, which won its first Westminster seat in 1966. Ap Iorwerth ramped up the anti-establishment rhetoric in his conference speech while Lindsay Whittle, who won Caerphilly for Plaid in October’s by-election, bellowed: “Rich men from London, we are waiting for you!” Yet he insists his success is more than a protest vote, a trend sweeping Europe or a mirror of Reform’s populism. “I’d like to think that we’re doing something different,” Ap Iorwerth told POLITICO. While Morgan accuses him of “separatism,” he said: “We have a growing sense of Welsh nationhood and Welsh identity, at a time when there’s deep disillusionment in the old guard of U.K. politics and a sense of needing to keep at bay that populist right wing.” Ap Iorwerth said there is a “very real danger” that Labour vanishes entirely as a serious force in the Senedd. “The level of support that they have collapsed to is a level that most people, probably myself included, could never have imagined would happen so quickly,” he said. INDEPENDENCE DAY? But Plaid faces three big challenges to hold this pole position. The first is its ground game, stretched thin to cover the new world of mega-seats. On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words: “New leadership for Wales.” | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images The second is to remain distinct from Labour and the insurgent Greens while running a broad left-leaning platform focused on energy costs, childcare and the NHS. The third is to convince unionist voters that Plaid is not simply a Trojan horse for Welsh independence. Independence is Plaid’s core belief, yet Ap Iorwerth did not mention the word once in his speech, instead promising a “standing commission” to look at Wales’ future. He told POLITICO he would rather have a “sustained, engaging, deep discussion … than try to crash, bang, wallop, towards the line.”  But opponents suggest Plaid will push hard for independence if they win a second term in 2030 — like the Scottish National Party did after topping elections in 2007 then 2011. One conference attendee, Emyr Gruffydd, 36, a member for 19 years, said independence “is going to be part of our agenda in the future, definitely. But I think nation-building has to be the approach that we take in the first term.” Savile Roberts accepted that shelving talk of independence (which is still supported by less than half the Welsh population) is part of a deliberate strategy to broaden the party’s reach and keep a wide left-leaning appeal. “I mean, we know the people that we need to appeal to — it is the disenchanted Labour voters,” she said. For some shoppers in Newport — not Plaid’s home turf — it may be working. One ex-Labour voter, Rose Halford, said of Plaid: “All they want to do is make everybody speak Welsh.” But she’ll consider backing them: “They’re showing a bit more gumption, aren’t they?” TAXING QUESTIONS FOR PLAID If Plaid does win, that’s when the hard part begins. Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. And Plaid has vowed not to hike income tax, one of the few (blunt) tax instruments available to the Welsh government. Strategists looked at the issue before and feared it would prompt taxpayers to flee over the border to England. So Plaid promises vague financial “efficiencies” in areas such as child poverty, where spending exceeded £7 billion since 2022, and health. Whittle said: “There’s an awful lot of people pen-pushing in the health service. We don’t need pen-pushers.” Labour’s attack machine argues that Plaid and Reform UK alike would cut services. Ap Iorwerth insists his and Farage’s promises are different: “We’re talking about being effective and efficient.” But he admitted: “You don’t know the detail until you come into government.”  Ap Iorwerth jettisoned any suggestion that Plaid would introduce universal basic income, saying it is “not a pledge for government.” He added: “It’s something that I believe in as a principle. I don’t think we’re in a place where we have anything like a model that could be put in place now.” Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images The blame game between Cardiff and Westminster will run hot. Ap Iorwerth voiced outrage this week at a leaked memo from Starmer in December, ordering his Cabinet to deliver directly in Wales and Scotland “even when devolved governments may oppose this.” FARAGE’S WELSH SURGE And then there’s Reform. Farage’s party has rocketed in the polls since 2024; typical branch meetings have swelled from a dozen members to several dozen. Since February, Reform has even had its own leader for Wales — Dan Thomas, a former Tory councillor in London who says he recently moved back to the area of Blackwood, in the south Wales valleys. Some party figures have observed a dip after the Caerphilly by-election, where Reform came second. Thomas insists: “I don’t think we’ve plateaued” — and even said there is room to increase a 31 percent vote share from one (optimistic) poll. “There’s still a Labour vote to squeeze,” he told POLITICO.  “We’re targeting all of Wales.” It is a measure of Plaid’s success that Reform UK often now presents the nationalist party as its main competition. “It’s a two-horse race [with Plaid], that’s what I say on the doors,” said Leanne Dyke, a Reform canvasser who was drinking in the Pontypridd Wetherspoons. James Evans, who is now one of Reform’s two Senedd members after he was thrown out of the Conservative group in January on suspicion of defection talks, argues his supporters are underrepresented in polling because they are “smeared” as bigots. Evans added: “Very similarly to what happened in America when Donald Trump was elected, I think there is a quiet majority of people out there who do not want to say they’re voting Reform, who will vote Reform.”  Reform has its own custom-built member app, ReformGo, as it canvasses data on where its supporters live for the first time. It sent a mass appeal by post to all registered Welsh voters in late 2025 (before spending limits kicked in). Welsh campaign director David Thomas is recruiting a brand new slate of 96 candidates, booking hotels for training days with interviews, written exercises and team-building. Daytime TV presenter Jeremy Kyle has helped with media training. English officials cross the border to help; Reform still only has three paid officials in Wales. FARAGE HAS AN NHS PROBLEM Lian Walker, a postal worker from the village of Pen-y-graig, would be a prime target for Reform. “There’s people who I see on the databases, they don’t work,” she said in Pontpridd’s Patriot pub, “but they get everything; new windows, earrings, T-shirts, shorts.” She supports Reform’s plans to deport migrants. But on the NHS, she says of Reform: “They want it to go private like America.” Labour and Plaid drive this attack line relentlessly. The full picture is more nuanced — but still exposes a tension between Farage and Thomas. But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. | Ben Birchall/PA Images via Getty Images While Reform emphasizes it would keep the NHS free at the point of use, Farage has not ruled out shifting its funding from general taxation to a French-style insurance model, saying that would be “a national decision ahead of a general election.” Thomas, however, broke from this stance. He told POLITICO: “No, no. We rule out any kind of insurance system or any kind of privatization.” He added: “Nigel’s also said that devolved issues are down to the Welsh party, and I wouldn’t consider any kind of insurance-based or private-based system for the Welsh NHS.” Labour and Plaid are relying on an anti-Reform vote to keep Farage’s party out of power. Opponents have also highlighted the jailing of Nathan Gill, Reform’s former Welsh leader, for taking bribes to give pro-Russia interviews and speeches. But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. In Evans’ sprawling rural seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, two people with knowledge of the Conservative association said its membership had fallen catastrophically from a recent peak of around 400. On the other hand, the sheer number of defections makes Reform look more like a copycat Conservative Party. A former Tory staffer works for Evans; Thomas’ press officer is the Welsh Conservatives’ former media chief. Evans said last year that 99 percent of Reform’s policies were “populist rubbish,” but was allowed to see the policy platform in secret before he agreed to join (and has since contributed to it). While the long-time former UKIP and Brexit Party politician Mark Reckless led a policy consultation in the first half of 2025, former Conservative Welsh Secretary David Jones — who defected without fanfare last year — played a hands-on role behind the scenes working up manifesto policies, two people with knowledge of his work said. THE NIGEL SHOW Then there is Reform’s reliance on Farage himself.  The party deliberately left it late before unveiling a Welsh leader, said a Reform figure in Wales, and chose in Thomas a Welsh figure who would not “detract from Nigel’s overall umbrella and brand.” While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans, including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia Yusuf. Thomas said: “Ultimately, it’s my decision to sign off the manifesto. Of course, Nigel was consulted because he’s our U.K. leader, and we want to ensure that what’s going on in Wales is aligned to the broader picture in the UK.” Reform’s Welsh manifesto promises to cut a penny off every band of income tax by 2030, end Wales’ “nation of sanctuary” plan to support asylum seekers, scrap 20mph road speed limits and upgrade the M4 and A55 highways. But costings have not been published yet — Reform has sent them to be assessed by the Institute for Fiscal studies, a nonpartisan think tank — and like other parties, Reform faces questions about how it will all be paid for. Asked if Reform would begin work on the M4 and A55 upgrades by 2030, Thomas replied: “We’d like to. But we all know in this country, infrastructure projects take a long time.” While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans, including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia Yusuf. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images ‘I’VE GOT TO FOCUS ON WHAT I CAN CONTROL’ These harsh realities facing Wales’ would-be rulers are a silver lining for Labour. Morgan avoided POLITICO’s question about whether she believes the polls — “I’ve got to focus on what I can control” — but insisted many voters remain persuadable. “People will scratch the surface and say [our rivals] are not ready,” she said. Alun Michael, who led the first Welsh Labour administration in 1999, said the idea that the Labour vote has “collapsed completely” is wrong. “It’s always dangerous to go on opinion polls as a decider of what will happen in an election,” he said. Whoever does win will deserve a moment of levity. If Ap Iorwerth wins the most seats on May 7, he will drink an Aperol spritz; Thomas will have a glass of Penderyn Welsh whisky.  As for Morgan? She would like a cup of tea — milk, no sugar. Perhaps survival would be sweet enough.

LONDON — Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has welcomed an offer from MI5 to help political parties vet their election candidates as hostile states try to infiltrate British democracy. Last month MI5 — Britain’s domestic intelligence agency — said it would help political parties with candidate checks for potential foreign interference risks. A Reform spokesman told POLITICO the party would be “very interested” in taking up the offer, if it “comes to fruition.” Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, made the offer at a cross-party briefing with U.K. political parties last month, alongside Security Minister Dan Jarvis, three people with knowledge of the meeting told POLITICO. The offer from McCallum is part of a wider effort by the U.K. government and security services to shore up British democracy amid a wave of espionage activity from hostile states. In the past six months, several foreign and U.K.-born citizens have been arrested on suspicion of working for Iran, Russia and China. Earlier this month three former Labour officials, including the husband of a sitting Labour MP and former candidate for North Wales police and crime commissioner, were arrested by counter-terrorism police on suspicion of spying for China. Last year, the former Reform UK leader in Wales Nathan Gill was jailed for accepting bribes to make pro-Russian statements while he was a member of the EU parliament for Reform’s precursor Brexit Party. Britain’s political parties have no standardized system for vetting those who want to become MPs. Each party has its own internal, and in some cases, external processes for probity checks. Reform leader Nigel Farage in 2024 blamed a “reputable vetting company” for oversights in helping sift its candidates ahead of the general election after one praised Hitler and backed Russia’s war in Ukraine. He apologized, adding: “We have been stitched up politically and that’s given us problems.” MI5’s role in vetting is limited to its own staff and certain levels of security clearance for specific government and official roles in Whitehall. Its offer to candidates is expected to be limited to helping parties assess foreign interference risks, rather than any official security clearance. POLITICO asked the six main Westminster parties if they will take MI5 up on its offer to assist in their vetting processes. The ruling Labour Party, the Conservatives, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats all declined to comment. The Scottish National Party did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The offer from Ken McCallum is part of a wider effort by the U.K. government and security services to shore up British democracy amid a wave of espionage activity from hostile states. | Jonathan Brady/PA WIRE/AFP via Getty A Reform UK spokesman said: “If this offer comes to fruition, we would be very interested in taking the MI5 up on it.  “We must do all we can to stamp out foreign interference in our politics. We have seen just last week with the Labour China spy scandal just how deeply embedded this issue is.” The government unveiled its Counter Political Interference and Espionage Action Plan last November. It includes an elections bill, which is currently making its way through parliament. An independent review into financial interference in U.K. democracy is examining the use of cryptocurrency. Ministers are also considering bringing in proscription-like powers to disrupt proxies and state-backed terror groups as part of the plan. A Government spokesperson said: “The Security Minister is coordinating an action plan to ensure we’re doing all we can to safeguard our democracy, including working directly with political parties to help them detect and deter interference and espionage. “We’re also strengthening rules on political funding, rolling out security advice for election candidates, and working with professional networking sites and think tanks to make them a more hostile operating environment for foreign agents.”

LONDON — The U.K. has appointed Caroline Wilson as its new chief diplomat to the EU institutions in Brussels. POLITICO reported last September that the former ambassador to China was set to lead London’s mission to the EU from late summer 2026. The Foreign Office confirmed on Tuesday that she will succeed Lindsay Croisdale-Appleby, who has been in post in the EU capital since 2021. Wilson, who will take the reins from August, has already worked extensively on EU issues, having been the Foreign Office’s Europe director from 2016 to 2019 during the first phase of Brexit talks. Her new role leading the U.K.’s embassy to the EU will be a return to the Belgian capital, where she worked from 2000 until 2004 at the body’s predecessor, the U.K. Representation to the EU. Wilson also spent time in the city while studying at the francophone Université libre de Bruxelles, where she obtained a masters degree in European community law. She was later seconded to the Cabinet Office’s Europe secretariat from 2006 to 2008. The career mandarin had been ambassador to China since 2020, departing in August with an announcement that she “will be transferring to another Diplomatic Service appointment.” She is fluent in Mandarin and also speaks Russian, French and German. In a statement, the Foreign Office said: “Dame Caroline Wilson DCMG has been appointed Ambassador to the European Union in succession to Mr Lindsay Croisdale-Appleby CMG, who will be transferring to another Diplomatic Service appointment. Dame Caroline will take up her appointment during August 2026.” Outgoing head of mission Croisdale-Appleby was intimately involved in Brexit talks, working as U.K. chief negotiator David Frost’s deputy in Downing Street’s Europe taskforce throughout 2020. Prior to that he was a director general in the Foreign Office from 2017 to 2020, working on EU and other issues. Before taking up that role he was the British foreign affairs department’s Europe director from 2015 to 2017.