BRUSSELS ― Ursula von der Leyen is facing the starkest challenge to the EU’s accountability in a generation ― with a fraud probe ensnaring two of the biggest names in Brussels and threatening to explode into a full-scale crisis. Exactly a year into her second term as Commission president, von der Leyen, already plagued by questions over her commitment to transparency and amid simmering tension with the bloc’s foreign policy wing, must now find a way to avoid being embroiled in a scandal that dates back to her first years in office. An announcement by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office that the EU’s former foreign affairs chief and a senior diplomat currently working in von der Leyen’s Commission had been detained on Tuesday was seized on by her critics, with renewed calls that she face a fourth vote of no confidence. “The credibility of our institutions is at stake,” said Manon Aubry, co-chair of The Left in the European Parliament. If proven, the allegations would set in motion the biggest scandal to engulf Brussels since the mass resignation of the Jacques Santer Commission in 1999 over allegations of financial mismanagement. Police detained former Commission Vice President Federica Mogherini, a center-left Italian politician who headed the EU’s foreign policy wing, the European External Action Service, from 2014-2019, and Stefano Sannino, an Italian civil servant who was the EEAS secretary-general from 2021 until he was replaced earlier this year. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office said it had “strong suspicions” that a 2021-2022 tendering process to set up a diplomatic academy attached to the College of Europe, where Mogherini is rector, hadn’t been fair and that the facts, if proven, “could constitute procurement fraud, corruption, conflict of interest and violation of professional secrecy.” The saga looks set to inflame already strained relations between von der Leyen and the current boss of the EEAS, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, four EU officials told POLITICO. Earlier this year Sannino left his secretary-general job and took up a prominent role in von der Leyen’s Commission. An EU official defended von der Leyen, instead blaming the EEAS, an autonomous service under the EU treaties that operates under the bloc’s high representative, Kallas — who is one of the 27 European commissioners. “I know the people who don’t like von der Leyen will use this against her, but they use everything against her,” the official said. Police detained former Commission Vice President Federica Mogherini, a center-left Italian politician who headed the EU’s foreign policy wing, the European External Action Service, from 2014-2019. | Christoph Gollnow/Getty Images “Because President von der Leyen is the most identifiable leader in Brussels, we lay everything at her door,” the official added. “And it’s not fair that she would face a motion of censure for something the External Action Service may have done. She’s not accountable for all of the institutions.” Mogherini, Sannino and a third person have not been charged and their detention does not imply guilt. An investigative judge has 48 hours from the start of their questioning to decide on further action. When contacted about Sannino, the Commission declined to comment. When contacted about Mogherini, the College of Europe declined to answer specific questions. In a statement it said it remained “committed to the highest standards of integrity, fairness, and compliance — both in academic and administrative matters.” ‘CRIME SERIES’ The investigation comes as Euroskeptic, populist and far-right parties ride a wave of voter dissatisfaction and at a time when the EU is pressuring countries both within and outside the bloc over their own corruption scandals. “Funny how Brussels lectures everyone on ‘rule of law’ while its own institutions look more like a crime series than a functioning union,” Zoltan Kovacs, spokesperson for the government of Hungary, which has faced EU criticism, said on X. Romanian MEP Gheorghe Piperea, a member of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group, who was behind a failed no-confidence vote in von der Leyen in July, told POLITICO he was considering trying to trigger a fresh motion. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told state media that EU officials “prefer to ignore their own problems, while constantly lecturing everyone else.” The EU has struggled to shake off a series of corruption scandals since this decade began. Tuesday’s raids come on the back of the 2022 “Qatargate” scandal, when the Gulf state was accused of seeking to influence MEPs through bribes and gifts, as well as this year’s bribery probe into Chinese tech giant Huawei’s lobbying activities in Europe.  Those investigations implicated members of the European Parliament, and at the time Commission officials were quick to point the finger at lawmakers and distance themselves from the scandals. But the Commission hasn’t been immune to allegations of impropriety. In 2012, then-Health Commissioner John Dalli resigned over a tobacco lobbying scandal. Von der Leyen herself was on the receiving end of a slap-down by the EU’s General Court, which ruled earlier this year that she shouldn’t have withheld from the public text messages that she exchanged with the CEO of drug giant Pfizer during the Covid-19 pandemic. Tuesday’s revelations are far more dangerous for the Commission, given the high profile of the suspects and the gravity of the allegations they face. ‘DISASTROUS IMPACT’ After serving as a European Commission vice president and head of the EEAS, Mogherini was appointed rector of the College of Europe in 2020, amid criticism she wasn’t qualified for the post, didn’t meet the criteria, and had entered the race months after the deadline. In 2022 she became the director of the European Union Diplomatic Academy, the project at the heart of Tuesday’s dawn raids. Sannino, a former Italian diplomat, was the EEAS’s top civil servant and is now the director-general for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf department in the Commission. Stefano Sannino, a former Italian diplomat, was the EEAS’s top civil servant and is now the director-general for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf department in the Commission. | Pool Photo by Johanna Geron via Getty Images Cristiano Sebastiani, the staff representative of one of the EU’s major trade unions, Renouveau & Démocratie, said that if proven, the allegations would have “a disastrous impact on the credibility of the institutions concerned, and more broadly on citizens’ perception of all European institutions.” He said he had received “tens of messages” from EU staff concerned about reputational damage. “This is not good for EU institutions and for the Commission services. It is not good for Europe, it steers attention away from other things,” said a Commission official granted anonymity to speak freely. “It conveys this idea of elitism, of an informal network doing favors. Also, Mogherini was one of the most successful [EU high representatives], it’s not good in terms of public diplomacy.”

BERLIN — Before Leif-Erik Holm became one of the German far right’s leading figures, he was a morning radio DJ in his home state in eastern Germany celebrated, by his station, for making “the best jokes far and wide.” Ahead of regional elections across Germany next year, Holm, 55, is now set to become the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party’s top candidate in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural area bordering Poland and the Baltic Sea. With polls showing the AfD in first place at 38 percent support in the state, it’s one of the places where the party — now the largest opposition group in Germany’s national parliament — is within striking distance of taking significant governing power for the first time since its formation over a decade ago. Holm embodies the type of candidate at least some AfD leaders increasingly want at the top of the ticket. With an avuncular demeanor, he eschews the kind of incendiary rhetoric other politicians in the party have embraced and says he seeks dialogue with his political opponents. Asked what his party would do if it takes power in his state next year, Holm rattled off some innocuous-sounding proposals: invest more in education, including STEM subjects, and ensure children of immigrants learn German before they start school. “I’m actually a nice guy,” Holm said. Underneath the guy-next-door image, however, there’s a clear political calculus. National co-head of the party, Alice Weidel, is attempting something of a rebrand, believing that the AfD won’t be able to make the jump to real political power unless it moves away from candidates who embrace openly extreme positions. That means moving away from controversial leaders like Björn Höcke — found guilty by a court for uttering a banned slogan used by Adolf Hitler’s SA storm troopers — and Maximilian Krah, who last year said he would “never say that anyone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal.” Instead, the preferred candidate, at least for Weidel and people in her camp, is someone like Holm, who can present a more sanitized face of the party. But the makeover is proving to be only skin deep, and even Weidel, despite her national leadership role, can’t prevent the mask from slipping. NEW LOOK, SAME POLITICS Since its creation in 2013 as a Euroskeptic party, the AfD has grown more extreme, mobilizing its increasingly radicalized base primarily around the issue of migration. Earlier this year, Germany’s federal domestic intelligence agency — which is tasked with surveilling groups found to be anti-constitutional — deemed the AfD an extremist group. Weidel is now trying to tamp down on the open extremism. The effort is intended to make the AfD more palatable to mainstream conservatives — and to make it harder for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right alliance to refuse to govern in coalition with the party by maintaining the postwar “firewall” around the far right. Weidel’s push to present a more polished party image isn’t necessarily supported by large swaths of the AfD’s rank and file — especially in its strongholds in the former East Germany — who point to the fact that the party’s political ascent coincided with its radicalization. The argument isn’t without merit. Despite its rising extremism, the party came in second in the snap federal election early this year — the best national showing for a far-right party since World War II. The party is now ahead of Merz’s conservatives in polls. Alice Weidel’s push to present a more polished party image isn’t necessarily supported by large swaths of the AfD’s rank and file. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images  Weidel is nevertheless pressing ahead with her drive to try to soften the AfD’s image. As part of this effort, Weidel has tried to somewhat shift her party from its proximity to the Kremlin — seeking closer ties with Republicans in the U.S. From now on, the party will “fight alongside the white knight rather than the black knight,” a person familiar with Weidel’s thinking said. In another remake attempt, earlier this year, an extremist youth group affiliated with the AfD dissolved itself to avert a possible ban that might have damaged the party. Last weekend, a new youth wing was formed that party leaders will have direct control over. Other far-right parties across Europe have made their own rebranding efforts. In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen has attempted to normalize her party — an effort referred to as dédiabolisation, or “de-demonization” — ditching the open antisemitism of its founders. As part of that push, Le Pen moved to disassociate her party from the AfD in the European Parliament. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has moderated her earlier anti-EU, pro-Russia stances. For the AfD, however, the attempted transformation is less a matter of substance — and more a matter of optics. Underneath Weidel’s effort to burnish her party’s reputation, many of its most extreme voices continue to hold sway. THE POLISHED RADICAL Perhaps no AfD leader embodies that tension more than Ulrich Siegmund, the lead candidate for the party in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, where it is polling first at 40 percent support ahead of a regional vote next September. It’s here, in this small state of just over 2 million people, where AfD leaders pin most of their hopes of getting into state government next year — possibly even with an absolute majority. Like Holm, Siegmund too tries to cultivate a regular-guy persona. Even members of opposing parties in the state parliament describe him as friendly and approachable. With over half a million followers on TikTok, he reaches more people than any other state politician in Germany. Perhaps no AfD leader embodies that tension more than Ulrich Siegmund, the lead candidate for the party in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. | Emmanuele Contini/NurPhoto via Getty Images At the same time, Siegmund is clearly connected to the extreme fringe of the party. He was one of the attendees at a secret meeting of right-wing extremists in which a “master plan” to deport migrants and “unassimilated citizens” was reportedly discussed. When news of the meeting broke last year, it sparked sustained protests against the far right across Germany and temporarily dented the AfD’s popularity in polls. Speaking to POLITICO, Siegmund minimized the secret meeting as “coffee klatsch,” claiming the real scandal is how the media overblew the episode. He described himself not as a dangerous extremist — but as a regular guy concerned for his country. “I am a normal citizen, taxpayer and resident of this country who simply wants a better home, especially for his children, for his family, for all of our children,” Siegmund said. “Because I simply cannot stand by and watch our country develop so negatively in such a short time.” Yet, when pressed, Siegmund could not conceal his extremism. He defended the use of the motto “Everything for Germany!” — the banned Nazi phrase that got his party colleague, Höcke, into legal trouble. “I think it goes without saying that you should give your all for your own country,” Siegmund said. “And I think that should also be the benchmark for every politician — to do everything they can for their own country, because that’s what they were elected to do and what they are paid to do.” Siegmund also took issue with the notion that the Nazis perpetrated history’s greatest crime against humanity, so therefore Germans have a special responsibility to avoid such terms. Ulrich Siegmund also took issue with the notion that the Nazis perpetrated history’s greatest crime against humanity, so therefore Germans have a special responsibility to avoid such terms. | Heiko Rebsch/picture alliance via Getty Images “I find this interpretation to be grossly exaggerated and completely detached from reality,” he said. “For me, it is important to look forward and not backward. And of course, we must always learn from history, but not just from individual aspects of history, but from history as a whole.” Siegmund said he couldn’t judge whether the Nazis had perpetrated history’s worst crime, relativizing the Holocaust in a manner reminiscent of some of the most extreme voices in his party. “I don’t presume to judge that,” he said, “because I can’t assess the whole of humanity.” One lesson from Germany’s history, Siegmund added, is that there should be no “language police” or attempts to ban the AfD as extremist, as some centrist politicians advocate. “If you want to ban the strongest force in this country according to opinion polls, then you’re not learning from history either,” he said. INTERNATIONAL NATIONALISTS The AfD’s national leaders privately smarted at Siegmund’s comments for making their faltering rebrand more difficult. (Holm did not respond to a request for comment on the statements.) That’s especially the case because Weidel and other AfD leaders are increasingly looking abroad for the legitimacy they crave at home and fear such rhetoric will complicate the effort. Weidel and people in her circle have sought to forge closer ties to the Trump administration and other right-wing governments, seeing connections with MAGA Republicans in the U.S. and other populist-right parties in Europe as a way of winning credibility for the AfD domestically. In Europe, Weidel has repeatedly visited Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at his official residence in Budapest. The party is also making an effort to reestablish connections with members of Le Pen’s party in the European Parliament, according to a high-ranking AfD official. Not everyone in the AfD, however, sees eye to eye with Weidel on the attempt to moderate the party image, especially when it comes to relations with Moscow. The AfD’s other national co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, recently told an interviewer on German public television that Vladimir Putin’s Russia poses no threat to Germany. Chrupalla’s rhetoric is much more friendly to the Kremlin, and he’s the preferred party leader among many of the AfD’s most radical supporters in eastern Germany — where pro-Moscow sympathies are more prevalent. Many of the AfD’s followers in the former East Germany, where the party polls strongest, see Weidel, born in the former West Germany, as too mild in her approach. Ultimately, the direction of the AfD — in next year’s state elections and beyond — may well depend on which leader’s vision prevails.

Catherine de Vries is Generali chair in European policies and professor at Bocconi University in Milan. Last week, Dutch voters rewarded the political center. The centrist-liberal D66 and center-right Christian Democratic Appeal benefited from a gowing appetite for stability, while the race for the largest party ended in a photo finish between D66 and Geert Wilders’s far-right Freedom Party. With no group receiving more than a fifth of the vote, upcoming coalition talks promise to be complicated, and a majority government before the holidays looks unlikely. As with so many recent elections across the continent, the EU was again the elephant in the room. Bloc-wide issues barely featured in the campaign ahead of the vote, yet the result could have far-reaching consequences for the Netherlands’ role in Brussels. What is already clear is that the Dutch electorate voted far more pro-European than it did in 2023. Indeed, it seems the Euroskepticism that once dominated the political mood has given way to a quiet mandate for cooperation and reform — an unmistakably pro-EU signal to The Hague. And if D66 leader Rob Jetten can succeed in becoming the party’s first prime minister, it would mark a decisive shift in the country’s policy toward the bloc. D66 has long been the most outspokenly pro-EU party across the Dutch political spectrum. Speaking to POLITICO after the election, Jetten argued that the Netherlands should use its veto power far less often and instead “say yes to cooperation more often.” “Europe risks stagnation if we fail to deepen integration. The Netherlands helped found the Union, now we should help shape its future,” he said. These words signal a clear break from the previous government of technocrat Dick Schoof, which had been largely invisible in Brussels. As Dutch broadcaster NOS recently reported, the country’s influence in the EU has “withered.” Or, as one senior EU diplomat bluntly put it: “No one listens to the Dutch anymore.” Schoof’s administration had begun with high expectations — exemptions on asylum, nitrogen and nature rules, and a lower contribution to the EU budget — but the reality in Brussels proved unforgiving. The Netherlands often found itself isolated, and its attempts to secure “opt-outs” were quietly abandoned. A Jetten premiership could reverse this pattern. Though similarly pragmatic, even Schoof’s predecessor Mark Rutte was ultimately cautious, wary of treaty reform and collective borrowing. But Jetten signals a readiness to go further, as D66 sees the Netherlands as a natural bridge-builder and a key player in European integration. Moreover, part of the Schoof government’s weakness was its lack of European experience. A technocrat without party backing, he struggled to build political capital in Brussels. Jetten, by contrast, is well-connected. Like Rutte, he belongs to Renew Europe group, the liberal alliance associated with French President Emmanuel Macron — a link that once amplified Dutch influence beyond its size. And if D66 leader Rob Jetten can succeed in becoming the party’s first prime minister, it would mark a decisive shift in the country’s policy toward the bloc. | Pierre Crom/Getty Images Of course, today even this network has become fragile. Macron’s domestic troubles have diminished his clout in Brussels, and with it, the gravitational pull of the liberal camp. Meanwhile, Brussels itself is more fragmented than ever. European politics has become a patchwork of competing national priorities, with southern members demanding more collective investment, northern countries — including the Netherlands — still preaching fiscal discipline, eastern members prioritizing defense and security, and western governments focused on industrial policy and competitiveness. Then, there are the external pressures to consider: The U.S. expects Europe to shoulder more of its own defense, while China is forcing the bloc to rethink its economic dependencies. In such a fragmented landscape, speaking with one European voice is hard enough — acting in unison is harder still. Ultimately, though, how the next Dutch government positions itself in this European maze, and Jetten’s ability to deliver, will largely depend on domestic politics and the coalition he can forge. The irony here is that if the center-left Green–Labor alliance or the Christian Democrats had emerged as the largest party, alignment with Europe’s dominant political currents might have been easier, finding natural allies in Spain’s Pedro Sánchez or German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But with D66 securing less than 20 percent of the vote, Jetten will have to govern in a broad coalition that includes parties far less enthusiastic about Europe. Still, even a Jetten-led coalition could boost Dutch influence precisely because it would span multiple European party families at once. In Brussels, where informal networks often matter just as much as votes, that could give the Netherlands renewed diplomatic weight. Facing the strategic dilemma of reconciling domestic compromise with European ambition, Jetten’s political style — pragmatic, conciliatory and consensus-driven — may also prove to be an asset here. During election-night coverage, one journalist even called him “the new Rutte” due to their shared instinct for timing and coalition-building. But Jetten couples this with a much clearer European vision. In his post-election remarks to POLITICO, the D66 leader left little room for doubt: “Europe must evolve into a serious democratic world power, with the means and authority to do what citizens expect — protect our borders from Putin, grow our economy and safeguard the climate,” he said. For years now, Dutch politics have been oscillating between pragmatic euro-realism and latent Euroskepticism. But this election may finally signal the pendulum’s slow return toward a more pro-Europe center, rooted in the quiet understanding that the Netherlands and the EU rise and fall together.

BRUSSELS — Wednesday’s election in the Netherlands should surely go down as one of the best days Europe’s centrists have enjoyed in years. Geert Wilders, the far-right populist who touted leaving the EU on his way to a shock victory in the 2023 election, lost nearly a third of his voters after 11 chaotic months for his Party for Freedom (PVV) in coalition.  At the same time, the fervently pro-European liberal Rob Jetten surged in the final days of the campaign and stands a good chance of becoming prime minister. At 38, he would be the youngest person to hold the office since World War II and the first openly gay candidate ever to do so.  “Many in the Brussels bubble will welcome the rise of a mainstream, pro-governing and reform-oriented party,” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity because the subject is politically sensitive. “The Dutch have a lot to contribute to the EU.” But even as they exhale with relief at the end of the Wilders interlude, the inhabitants of Europe’s dominant liberal center-ground — those Brussels officials, diplomats and ministers who run the EU show — would be well advised not to celebrate too hard. If previous years are any guide, the final shape of the next government and its policy plans will not become clear for months. Who knows what will have happened in Ukraine, the Middle East, or in Donald Trump’s trade war with China in that time? “It is essential for European cooperation that a new government is stable and able to make bold decisions, given the current geopolitical challenges that Europe is facing,” the same diplomat said. Even when the new coalition finally begins its work, this election should worry Europe’s liberal centrists almost as much as it delights them. JETTEN INTO EUROPE  Jetten’s Democracy 66 party has never done so well at a Dutch election: Assuming he gets the job he wants, he’ll be the party’s first prime minister. This week he told POLITICO he wanted to move the Netherlands closer to the EU.  Last night, officials in Brussels privately welcomed the prospect of the Dutch and their highly regarded diplomats returning to their historic place at the center of EU affairs, after two years in which they lost some influence. It was always going to be tough for the outgoing PM Dick Schoof, a 68-year-old technocrat, to follow the long-serving Mark Rutte, an EU star who now runs NATO. Domestic divisions made his job even harder.  But pro-European spirits also rose because the disruptive Wilders had wanted to keep the EU at arm’s length. Jetten’s position could hardly be more different. In fact, he sounds like an EU federalist’s dream.  “We want to stop saying ‘no’ by default, and start saying ‘yes’ to doing more together,” Jetten told POLITICO this week. “I cannot stress enough how dire Europe’s situation will be if we do not integrate further.”  STAYING DUTCH In Brussels, officials expect the next Dutch administration to maintain the same broad outlook on core policies: restraint on the EU’s long-term budget; cracking down on migration; boosting trade and competitiveness; and supporting Ukraine, alongside stronger common defense. One area where things could get complicated is climate policy. Jetten is committed to climate action and may end up in a power-sharing deal with GreenLeft-Labor, which was led at this election by former EU Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans.  How any government that Jetten leads balances climate action with improving economic growth will be key to policy discussions in Brussels. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been trimming climate measures amid center-right complaints that they are expensive for consumers and businesses. But she wants to secure backing for new targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.  Elsewhere, housing and migration — two areas often linked by far-right politicians — were central issues in the Dutch campaign. Both will continue to feature on the EU’s agenda, too.  For many watching the results unfold in Brussels, the biggest concerns are practical: Will the next Dutch government be more stable than the last one? And how long will it take to for the coalition to form? Seven months passed between the last election in November 2023 and Schoof taking office as prime minister in July 2024. “This is a historic election result because we’ve shown not only to the Netherlands but also to the world that it’s possible to beat populist and extreme-right movements,” Jetten told his supporters. “I’m very eager to cooperate with other parties to start an ambitious coalition as soon as possible.”  WILDERS Beneath the rare good news of a pro-European triumph and a far-right failure lurk more worrying trends for EU centrists.  First of all, there’s the sheer volatility of the result. Most voters apparently made up their minds at the last moment.  Wilders went from winning the popular vote and taking 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch lower house in 2023 to a projected 26 seats this time. Jetten’s D66 party, meanwhile, went from just nine seats two years ago to a projected 26, according to a preliminary forecast by the Dutch news agency ANP. The center-right Christian Democratic Appeal took just five seats in 2023 but now stands to win 18, according to the forecast. With swings this wild, anything could happen next time. Most major parties say they won’t work with Wilders in coalition now, making Jetten the more likely new PM if the projections hold. But Wilders says he is a long way from finished. “You won’t be rid of me until I’m 80,” the 62 year-old told supporters. In fact, Wilders might find a period in opposition — free from the constraints and compromises required in government — the perfect place to resume his inflammatory campaigns against Islam, immigration and the EU.  Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage had all been written off before storming back into their respective political front lines. “We had hoped for a different outcome, but we stood our ground,” Wilders wrote on X. “We are more determined than ever.”  TIMM’S UP  The other cloud on the pro-European horizon is the fate of Timmermans.  His center-left ticket was expected to do well and had been polling second behind Wilders’ Freedom Party in the months before the vote. But per the preliminary forecast, GreenLeft-Labor will fall from 25 seats to 20. Timmermans — who also stood in 2023 — resigned as leader.  It wasn’t just a defeat for the party, but also in some ways for Brussels. Timmermans had served as the European Commission’s executive vice president during von der Leyen’s first term, and was seen by some, especially his opponents, as a creation of the EU bubble.  Others point to the fact the center-left is struggling across Europe.  “It’s clear that I, for whatever reason, couldn’t convince people to vote for us,” Timmermans said. “It’s time that I take a step back and transfer the lead of our movement to the next generation.” Jetten’s pro-Europeanism could also come back to haunt him by the time of the next election. If he fails to deliver miracles to back up his optimistic pitch to voters, his Euroskeptic opponents have a ready-made argument for what went wrong. Recent history in the Netherlands, and elsewhere, suggests they won’t be afraid to use it.  Eva Hartog, Hanne Cokelaere, Pieter Haeck and Max Griera contributed reporting.

Hungary is looking to join forces with Czechia and Slovakia to form a Ukraine-skeptic alliance in the EU, a top political adviser to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told POLITICO. Orbán is hoping to team up with Andrej Babiš, whose right-wing populist party won Czechia’s recent parliamentary election, as well as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to align positions ahead of meetings of EU leaders, including holding pre-summit huddles, the aide said. While a firm political alliance remains some way off, the formation could significantly impede the EU’s efforts to support Ukraine financially and militarily. “I think it will come — and be more and more visible,” said the prime minister’s political director, Balázs Orbán, when asked about the potential for a Ukraine-skeptic alliance to start acting as a bloc in the European Council. “It worked very well during the migration crisis. That’s how we could resist,” he said of the so-called Visegrad 4 group made up of Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland at a time when the Euroskeptic Law and Justice Party was in power in Warsaw following 2015. Then-Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki led the charge as the alliance’s biggest member, with the “V4” group promoting pro-family policies as well as strong external borders for the EU, and opposing any mandatory relocation of migrants among member countries. The Visegrad 4 alliance split after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as Poland advocated hawkish positions toward Moscow and Hungary took the opposite stance. A new Visegrad alliance would count three rather than four members. Poland’s current center-right prime minister, Donald Tusk, is staunchly pro-Ukraine and is unlikely to enter any alliance with Orbán. Fico and Babiš, however, have echoed the Hungarian leader’s viewpoints on Ukraine, calling for dialogue with Moscow rather than economic pressure. Babiš has been criticized for his public skepticism on supporting further European aid to Kyiv, with Czechia’s current foreign minister warning in an interview with POLITICO that Babiš would act as Orbán’s “puppet” at the European Council table. Even so, it might take some time for any version of the Visegrad alliance to reform. While re-elected as Slovakia’s prime minister in 2023, Fico has stopped short of formally allying with the Hungarian leader on specific policy areas. Babiš has yet to form a government after his party’s recent election victory. BEYOND THE VISEGRAD 3 Hungary’s push for political alliances in Brussels goes beyond the European Council, Balázs Orbán said. The Hungarian prime minister’s Fidesz party — part of the far-right Patriots for Europe group — could expand its partnerships in the European Parliament, he said, naming the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group, the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group and “some leftist groups” as potential allies. Orbán is hoping to team up with Andrej Babiš, whose right-wing populist party won Czechia’s recent parliamentary election. | Tomas Tkacik/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Mainstream parties such as the center-right European People’s Party could sooner or later turn against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, destroying the centrist majority that supported her re-election, the adviser said. “So this reconstruction of the [Visegrad 4] is going on. We have the third-largest European parliamentary faction. We have a think tank network, which is widely here [in Brussels], and it has a transatlantic leg as well. And we are looking for partners, allies on every topic.” The Mathias Corvinus Collegium, a think tank that receives most of its funding from allies of the Hungarian leader and is chaired by Balázs Orbán, has expanded its presence in Brussels since its launch in 2022. The Hungarian prime minister, who has been in power for the past 15 years, faces a re-election battle next year. Opposition leader Péter Magyar’s Tisza party is currently more popular than Orbán’s Fidesz party, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. Asked about the coming election campaign, the aide said it would be “tough, just as always,” blaming Brussels for what he called an “organized, coordinated effort to try to push out the Hungarian government” which included “politically supporting the opposition.” The European Commission states that measures to withhold funds from Hungary stem from Budapest’s defiance of EU law rather than a political agenda. Asked whether Budapest continues to back Hungary’s Health Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi, who’s been alleged in media reports to have led the recruiting of spies in EU institutions when he was working as an EU diplomat, Orbán said the commissioner was “doing a great job.” “They are just … issues which are used to portray Hungary as some country which is not loyal to the institutions,” he added. “We want to be inside. We are part of the club.”

LONDON — Brits voted for Brexit because of immigration. Now they want to turn back the clock. By a whopping two-to-one margin, voters now favor the pre-2021 immigration system to the one that has taken shape since leaving the EU, according to striking new polling commissioned by POLITICO. Some 41 percent of the public say they would prefer “Britain’s immigration policy prior to leaving the European Union” versus just 19 percent who want “Britain’s current immigration policy, implemented since leaving the European Union,” the polling conducted by More in Common found. Immigration loomed large in the 2016 EU referendum campaign, with the Leave camp’s “breaking point” posters and rows about free movement making headlines throughout the build-up to the vote. The idea was that leaving the bloc would give Britain back “control” of its borders and create a fairer system. But the widespread perception is that’s not how it turned out. Split by party, left-leaning Green voters are the most keen on turning the clock back, with 60 percent preferring the old system versus 16 percent the current one. Labour and the Lib Dems aren’t far behind, with 46 percent and 49 percent yearning for the pre-Brexit days respectively. But even the Euroskeptics backing Nigel Farage’s Reform party refuse to endorse the current arrangements, with 37 percent backing the pre-Brexit approach, just 21 percent favoring the post-Brexit system, and an unusually high 42 percent saying they don’t know. WISTFULLY LOOKING BACK? But the results don’t necessarily mean voters are desperate for a return to EU-style freedom of movement, according to researchers whom POLITICO asked about the figures. Since leaving the EU, the U.K. hasn’t just ditched free movement with the bloc, it has also significantly liberalized its rest-of-world visa system — resulting in a large increase in migration from other countries. Net migration to the U.K. was 431,000 in 2024 — significantly higher than rates in the 2010s when numbers “typically fluctuated between 200,000 and 300,000,” according to an analysis by Oxford University’s Migration Observatory. Even the Euroskeptics backing Nigel Farage’s Reform party refuse to endorse the current arrangements. | Jack Taylor/Getty Images Levels were even higher in 2022 and 2023, and some commentators have taken to calling this increase the “Boriswave” — after the PM who brought in the new system. According to Sophie Stowers, research manager at More in Common, the results are unlikely to be a reflection of people “wistfully looking back at a time of free movement.” Instead, she says, immigration “has risen in salience since 2020, partly because of increases in net migration caused by reforms to the migration system that people are unhappy with, but also because of the surge in small boat crossings.” As well as losing their reciprocal rights to live and work in other European countries, British voters haven’t even seen lower levels of migration to Britain — creating a situation where nobody of any political persuasion is happy. Marley Morris, associate director at the IPPR think tank, said the results appear to reflect “nostalgia from the public for our pre-Brexit immigration model,” but added it would be “rash to assume this means there is public appetite for a return to free movement of people.” “The overall preference for the pre-Brexit system is most likely the combined result of, on the one hand, the longstanding cohort of Remain supporters continuing to back a pro-EU position, alongside a wider frustration with recent immigration policy, including among those who voted leave.” So nobody’s happy, but not necessarily for the same reasons. RATING OUTCOMES Georgina Sturge, data consultant at Oxford’s Migration Observatory and author of the book “Bad Data: How Governments, Politicians and the Rest of Us Get Misled by Numbers,” said the results must be interpreted carefully. “The key question for us is to what extent people are rating immigration systems based on a robust understanding of their different features, and how much of it is just people going off a vague impression — in other words, which systems give them good and bad vibes?” she said. “People’s knowledge of the ins and outs of different immigration systems is very limited on the whole.” This much is obvious from More in Common’s results. POLITICO also had the pollster ask people what immigration systems they liked and disliked. The most popular was an “Australian-style points-based immigration system,” with a net 46 percent support. The least popular was “Britain’s current immigration policy,” with -39 percent support. Net migration to the U.K. was 431,000 in 2024 — significantly higher than higher than rates in the 2010s. | Krisztian Elek/Getty Images Just one problem: Since leaving the EU, the U.K.’s immigration policy has literally been an Australian-style points-based immigration system. “Getting people to rate these different options doesn’t necessarily tell us what system people would actually prefer but rather how positively or negatively they rate the association it conjures up in their mind,” Sturge said. “People’s understanding of the true differences between the two systems is limited. They’re rating outcomes.” “Even if people have a better impression of immigration in the pre-Brexit era, the government cannot turn back the clock,” Sturge added. “Most obviously, the small boats route did not exist for most of the pre-Brexit period, and successive governments have failed to eliminate it — and rejoining the EU would not eliminate it either. The same arguments against being part of EU free movement would no doubt also resurface if a serious discussion about rejoining were to start up.”

PARIS — Don’t freak out just yet, but maybe start packing emergency supplies. Brussels’ fear of a founding member of the European Union swinging to the far right was abruptly reactivated this week as France’s snowballing political crisis gathered more momentum, leading one of French President Emmanuel Macron’s historic allies to join the chorus of opponents calling on him to step down. The French president is under extraordinary pressure after his prime minister’s latest attempt at forming a functioning government collapsed in just 14 hours and with new elections in the coming months, if not weeks, looking more and more likely. At both the presidential and parliamentary levels, victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is now distinctly possible, meaning a Euroskeptic, far-right figure might soon speak for France in the EU’s core institutions, adding to a growing chorus of populist, right-wing voices. “We have a continent that has experienced war, lockdown, a kind of light dictatorship in Budapest, we are used to continuing to function with a lot of shocks” said a European Commission official, who like others quoted in this story was granted anonymity to speak candidly. But “Le Pen is different,” he reckoned, referring to a widely shared assessment in Brussels that a radical change in French leadership would have far-reaching consequences for the EU. While the far right has been urging Macron to call new parliamentary elections, this week’s events also raise the prospect of earlier presidential elections if Macron is at some point forced to step down — something he has always strongly ruled out, vowing to stick around until the end of his term in 2027. If the National Rally accessed executive power in France it would significantly add to the EU’s headaches, already personified around the Council table by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, and likely soon to be joined by Andrej Babiš after his recent electoral triumph in the Czech Republic. The renewed populist surge threatens to derail the bloc’s policies in critical sectors, with concerns particularly acute on Russia and defense policy. Orbán and Fico have both stood in the way of the EU’s efforts to impose sanctions on Moscow since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Babiš has vowed to scrap the ammunition initiative for Ukraine, to challenge NATO’s plans to boost military spending, and to confront the Commission over the Green Deal — which is also in Le Pen’s crosshairs. Marine Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella will be in a position to claim the premiership and appoint a far-right government. | Romeo Boetzle/Getty Images The French far-right leader has consistently spoken out against ramping up aid to Kyiv, accusing Macron of warmongering when, for instance, he pushed against the grain of European thinking and suggested putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. While France has not been Kyiv’s biggest financial contributor for military aid, Macron’s rhetorical “leadership” on Ukraine has been a major driver of support for the embattled country and for building up Europe’s defenses, a senior official in an EU government said. Once he’s gone, “that would be completely at risk — we know that Le Pen wouldn’t continue on the same lines.” The National Rally has vehemently opposed Macron’s vision when it comes to possibly sharing France’s nuclear umbrella or pooling military resources as war expands on the continent. Asked recently on TV channel LCI whether French nuclear weapons could one day be stationed in Germany or Poland, Le Pen had a cutting response: “Then what next?”   She also reiterated past pledges to leave NATO’s integrated military command, albeit vowing to keep collaborating with allies, including the United States, on key military missions.  The worst-case scenario for Europhiles might, of course, never materialize. For all its bullish rhetoric, the National Rally has yet to prove that it can break through electoral barriers that have consistently constrained it. In France’s peculiar two-round electoral system, parties must effectively be supported by more than 50 percent of voters in the runoff to win. That threshold has been particularly hard for Le Pen and her troops to surpass, with voters of different political persuasions motivated until now to unite behind mainstream candidates to keep the far right out — albeit with a shrinking margin. Nonetheless, National Rally has made extraordinary gains and is now the lower chamber’s largest political group, controlling along with its allies roughly a quarter of seats. It had just a handful in 2017 when Macron was first elected. Even in the current political mess, winning an absolute majority is a stretch, says Mathieu Gallard from polling institute Ipsos. But the bitterly divided political landscape means the so-called Republican front, in which other parties gang up against the far right between the two rounds to keep it at bay, looks seriously weakened. At both the presidential and parliamentary levels, victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is now distinctly possible. | Jean-Philippe Ksiazek/Getty Images The National Rally is currently polling at around 33 percent (a level similar to what it got in last year’s legislative elections) for a potential future parliamentary vote, according to Opinionway, with the moderate left bloc estimated at 18 percent to 24 percent and Macron’s centrist camp trailing third with 14 percent to 16 percent. If Le Pen’s party wins an absolute majority in a snap parliamentary election, or comes close, her protégé Jordan Bardella will be in a position to claim the premiership and appoint a far-right government. That means the National Rally would preside over France’s position in the Council of the EU, where representatives from governments negotiate laws jointly with the European Parliament. THE FAR RIGHT IN BRUSSELS While everyone in Brussels has the presidential election on their minds, people “are completely underestimating what a general confrontation would look like” in the Council, the same Commission official quoted above said, with France working to block legislation coming out of the Commission across a wide range of sectors.  A future far-right France would still be in a minority, at least for now. “On cars, for example, they will only have the Hungarians on their side. They will lose. On Mercosur, they will lose,” the official said, referring to a draft trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur group of South American countries that awaits possible signature on Dec. 5.  The big question looming over Europe is whether the continent’s multiple brands of right-wing populism can at some point coalesce to form a blocking minority, grinding the EU’s machinery to a halt.  Gallard from Ipsos said such a scenario was unlikely in the short term, despite far-right parties polling high in upcoming elections, such as the Dutch vote in late October.  “When you look at other countries, you have situations that are actually quite contrasted,” he said. “For example, in the Netherlands, at first glance, [Geert Wilders’] Party for Freedom is leading in the polls, but it will likely be significantly lower than in the last election.” Populist nationalists are also likely to be key players in elections next year in Sweden and Hungary, where Viktor Orbán is gunning for reelection. In Germany’s election in February this year, voters gave the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) its best-ever national result with 21 percent of the vote, making it the country’s second-largest party. “The most strategic way to view it is to understand that every country will more or less have its ‘populist chapter’ moment,” said Grégoire Roos, program director for Europe and Russia at the Chatham House think tank in London. “The one thing we can hope for is that these chapters don’t all happen at the same time.”

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO Europe. “I don’t know what happened,” said French economist Jean Pisani-Ferry recently, lamenting President Emmanuel Macron’s unraveling grand centrist project. His bewilderment is shared by disoriented centrists across the continent, all wondering how the ground has yielded under their feet as the tectonic plates of European politics continue to relentlessly shift, throwing the familiar into disarray. But could this be the point of no return? The first of the latest tremors was the political comeback of Czech populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, a self-proclaimed Trumpist and Euroskeptic agitator. His ANO party grabbed 35 percent of the vote in the country’s parliamentary elections last Sunday, leaving Petr Fiala’s pro-Western coalition behind at 23 percent. Though falling short of an overall majority, Babiš — who lambasted the current center-right government for giving “Czech mothers nothing, and Ukrainians everything” — will no doubt relish teaming up with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and the far-right parties of the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament to disrupt any centrist “more Europe” policies. And seeking to tug the country away from supporting Ukraine, he has already pledged to scrap Czech ammunition supplies to Kyiv. Then, on Monday, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just hours after appointing a cabinet, plunging the country deeper into a political quagmire with its fractious parliament and lame-duck president in a political system designed by Charles de Gaulle for a powerful head of state. Macron has appointed and lost five prime ministers in two years and is still floundering. Could we be seeing the death throes of the Fifth Republic? At the end of the week, there will likely be more bad news for centrists in Portugal as well. Chega, the party of “God, fatherland and family” that in May became the official opposition, is set to do well in the country’s local elections — a harbinger of things to come. These are indeed heady, giddy times for national-conservative populists — and they’re celebrating as their rivals remain confounded. The outcome of the Czech election prompted the top populist leaders from across the continent to take to social media — including Orbán, Denmark’s Anders Vistisen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, Austria’s Harald Vilimsky, France’s Marine Le Pen and Italy’s Matteo Salvini. “All across Europe, patriotic parties are being called to power by the people, who long to reclaim their freedom and prosperity!” Le Pen posted on X. But how did we get here? In the summer of 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had crowed the “center is holding.” Following European Parliament elections that saw right-wing populists and national conservatives make serious inroads but fall short of the huge surge they were expecting, it seemed voters still largely backed centrists. The first of the latest tremors was the political comeback of Czech populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, a self-proclaimed Trumpist and Euroskeptic agitator. | Martin Divisek/EPA But von der Leyen was being complacent — a common characteristic of mainstream centrists from both the left and right since Brexit and U.S. President Donald Trump’s first election in 2016. Centrists were too quick to dismiss both Brexit and Trump’s first term as aberrations. The world would right itself, they said. Even as late as 2023, the Global Progress Action Summit in Montreal — a gathering of center-left politicians — saw boisterous talk of another possible “progressive moment,” with the Third Way politics shaped by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and former U.S. President Bill Clinton a quarter-century ago cited as an example. But since those first populist shifts, the centrist crack-up has grown more apparent to everyone else. The British Labour Party’s general election win in 2024 was an outlier — testimony to the unpopularity of the Conservatives rather than an embrace of Prime Minister Keir Starmer or an indication of a political trend. And U.S. President Joe Biden’s 2020 win seemed more like a pause in the crumbling of the ancien régime. Meanwhile, centrists on both the left and right have made too many excuses, without nearly enough rigorous self-analysis or readiness to challenge group-think or shibboleths. Instead, they’ve muttered about “deplorables” and blamed their setbacks on populists weaponizing issues like net zero, immigration, cultural disorientation, identity anxieties and the cost-of-living squeeze. They’ve easily reached for Russian disinformation and demagogic manipulation to explain away their misfortunes — talking almost as though the here-and-now challenges and fears faced by ordinary families are made up or overblown. And they haven’t been able to ease the nagging widespread sense that the West is in a doom-loop of structural decline and lacks the political will to correct. Centrists have consistently failed to understand that the jolts taking place under their feet were forewarnings of even bigger political earthquakes to come as the world changed. Now demoralized, either too laggardly to rethink policies or too quick to dress themselves in populist clothes — as Starmer’s Labour government is now trying to do with tougher immigration rules — more cracks are surely to come. Why vote for copycats when you can vote for the real thing? In Germany, for example, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s asylum crackdown has done nothing to stem the rising popularity of the hard-right Alternative for Germany party — at least in opinion polls. Merz’s approval ratings are dismal this month, with 70 percent of Germans unhappy with his performance. So are national conservatives now unstoppable? Maybe so, until the tectonic plates settle. Or at least until they’re exposed as having no real answers to the immense challenges of Europe’s anemic economic growth, poor competitiveness and massive public debt.

PRAGUE — Right-wing populist Andrej Babiš and his ANO movement won the Czech parliamentary elections by a large margin, but his path to the premiership is anything but straightforward. With 99.9 percent of the ballots counted, ANO had a decisive lead with 35 percent, well ahead of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s center-right governing coalition, Spolu (Together), which had 23 percent. ANO’s tally is the highest percentage ever achieved by a single party in a Czech parliamentary election. POLITICO brings you five key takeaways from the pivotal election. 1. FORMING A GOVERNMENT COULD TAKE MONTHS ANO failed to secure a majority in the 200-seat lower house, which means Babiš will need parliamentary support to form a government. That could be a drawn-out process, as all the mainstream parties have ruled out cooperating with Babiš. “The negotiations won’t be simple at all, and they won’t be quick either. I really think that forming the government could take quite some time. It might drag on for several months,” said Petr Kaniok, political scientist at Masaryk University in Brno. Babiš on Saturday evening said he aims to form a single-party minority government supported by the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party and the right-wing populist Motorists for Themselves. “We will lead talks with the SPD and Motorists and strive for a single-party government led by the ANO movement,” he said. 2. IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE Babiš is not Viktor Orbán — as long as he isn’t pressured by extremists, analysts say, which makes their poor results in this election a reason for cautious optimism. The far-left coalition Stačilo! (Enough), which calls for leaving both NATO and the EU and favors closer relations with Russia, did not make it above the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament despite strong polling during the campaign. The eurosceptic SPD got only 8 percent, much less than the predicted 13 percent, reducing its leverage in any potential cooperation with Babiš. “Babiš could form his own government without likely having to make any agreements that would be anti-European,” said political marketing expert Anna Shavit, who used to work on the Babiš campaign. Kaniok at Masaryk University called the results for extremists “good news.” “The most radical groups — namely Stačilo! and SPD — received fewer votes than expected. … From the point of view of the future of Czech foreign policy — and also European policy — it’s clearly good news, because you could say that the ANO movement in some respects was radical in its rhetoric, trying to appeal strongly to their voters,” Kaniok told POLITICO. “I think that by not having to rely on them so much in forming a government, any resulting government might not be as radical in its stance,” he said. 3. WILD CARD UP THE PRESIDENT’S SLEEVE Czech President Petr Pavel, who has discretion over appointing the prime minister, will meet all the parties that entered parliament on Sunday. Traditionally, the president tasks the leader of the winning party to form a government. Once a government with at least a 101-seat majority is established, the president appoints the prime minister and ministers, but the government must still win a vote of confidence. Pavel previously said he wouldn’t appoint ministers who advocate Czechia’s withdrawal from NATO or the EU. He also has said he is consulting lawyers on the question of whether to block Babiš over the conflict of interest posed by his large agriculture empire Agrofert. The first potential situation now appears much less likely, as SPD underperformed, and the far-left Stačilo! fell short of the 5 percent needed to enter parliament. Both parties are anti-NATO and euroskeptic. But the conflict of interest over Agrofert is still on the table. Czech law bars officials from owning or controlling a business that would create a conflict with their governing function. This doesn’t mean that ministers can’t own a business, just that they are mandated to prioritize the public interest over their own interest. Babiš said in a televised debate ahead of the elections that he “would solve the conflict of interest,” but he did not specify how. The possibility is slim, but Pavel still has the constitutional option to decline appointing Babiš as prime minister if he believes the proposed solution is insufficient. 4. SUPPORT TO UKRAINE COULD DECREASE Babiš campaigned on reducing support to Ukraine and prioritizing the Czech Republic. He previously said he doesn’t support Ukraine’s membership in the EU. He famously criticized the Prague-led ammunition initiative — which delivers millions of rounds to Kyiv — and pledged to cancel it, suggesting that NATO should run the scheme instead. The political analyst Kaniok said that ANO is not “openly on Russia’s side … but much more inclined toward Russia, much less toward Ukraine.” European officials have been watching Babiš with concern as they worry he could become another disruptive figure in the EU alongside Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. Babiš denies this. “We are clearly pro-European and pro-NATO, of course,” Babiš said at the press conference on Saturday following the results. “The EU has 27 members. Ukraine is not a member of the EU. We want, obviously, to talk about Europe, about European citizens, about the energy prices, the migration pact,” he added. Babiš, together with Orbán, is a co-founder of the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament. Several Patriots for Europe members, including Orbán and France’s Jordan Bardella, congratulated Babiš on his victory. “Truth has prevailed! Andrej Babiš has won the Czech parliamentary elections with a convincing lead,” Orbán said in a post on X. “A big step for the Czech Republic, good news for Europe. Congratulations, Andrej!” 5. BABIŠ IS STILL CHARGED WITH ALLEGED FRAUD Babiš is currently awaiting a verdict from the Prague District Court over whether he defrauded the EU out of €2 million so that Agrofert could receive subsidies intended for medium-sized businesses. The case hinges on whether the “Stork’s Nest” farm was carved out of Agrofert to make it look like a smaller, independent business. Unless new evidence is found, the court is obliged to take its lead from Prague’s High Court, which in June overturned an earlier ruling that had originally acquitted Babiš of wrongdoing. Chances are that the lower chamber of parliament will have to vote on stripping Babiš of parliamentary immunity.

ROME — Italy’s Gen Z is embracing the far right. With Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on a mission to make right-wing politics cool and U.S. conservatives finding a new generation of fans, young people from Rome to Milan are pushing nationalism and curbs on migration. Around 10,000 activists from the youth wing of the Italian prime minister’s Brothers of Italy party gathered last week on the manicured lawns of EUR — the showpiece suburb of Mussolini’s Rome — to see out the summer at a festival-slash-political rally. Between the DJ sets, inflatable obstacle courses and ping pong, an A-list of Euroskeptics, government ministers and TikTok stars rallied against threats to freedom of speech and derided the “violent” intolerance of the left. Looming large over this year’s festivities was the killing of U.S. conservative activist Charlie Kirk, who was shot at a university rally in Utah two weeks earlier. Activists knew of Kirk from social media. His death has triggered anxiety within the movement, according to Antonio Toscano, a 31-year-old Sicilian entrepreneur who is one of the group’s leaders. “Many of the activists are attacked every day with similar language, called ‘nasty,’ or ‘fascists’.” he said. Meloni herself addressed those parallels in a closing speech on Sunday, using the assassination to frame her governing party as underdogs. In the eyes of the left, Kirk “was dangerous” and “had to be stopped because he was free, brave and capable,” she told the crowds, adding that “the left want to impose their convictions with force.” The motive behind Kirk’s killing remains unclear, but the idea that the suspect was antifascist has rippled through U.S. political discourse. The suspect was charged with aggravated murder, which could carry the death penalty if he is convicted. “We must take Charlie as an example,” said Francesca Geraci, a 20-year-old student, along with “all those who have never stopped expressing their ideas, their values and principles out of fear of being attacked or killed.” DIGITAL DETOX Under the baking Italian sun, Gen Zers in oversized T-shirts and flared jeans ate organic ice cream and sipped craft beer. Placards around the espresso bar depicted their heroes, ranging from Paul Atreides, the character played by Timothée Chalamet in the Hollywood film Dune, to Mahsa Amini, the Iranian 22-year-old whose death in police custody after allegedly violating rules requiring women to wear a headscarf sparked widespread protests. For a generation who left school during the pandemic and came of age in the online world, the movement also offers an antidote to digital-era isolation: real-world friendships, purpose and goals. Young people are attracted to the possibility of “community,” said Fabio Roscani, the leader of the youth movement and an MP for Meloni’s party. Looming large over this year’s festivities was the killing of U.S. conservative activist Charlie Kirk, who was shot at a university rally in Utah two weeks earlier. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images While youth are stereotyped as disengaged, this generation is keen to come together around a common cause, Roscani said. “So much of life is online — political activism is, I would say, a healthy dose of reality.” Student activist Nicolò Sangiorgi, 21, agreed. “People feel at home and soon they feel part of a big family.” The movement often becomes “your entire life, 360 degrees” to the exclusion of all else, another activist said. “Inside the branch you make solid bonds, so you become friends outside of the political context. There is trust, there is friendship, you go out together at night, you even find love. That happens, absolutely.” SMELLS LIKE TEEN SPIRIT At the four-day event, which ran with the tagline “#NoFilter,” the young activists followed in Meloni’s footsteps: Italy’s leader rose to prominence on the right as founder and organizer of the equivalent youth festival of the day. When Meloni joined the equivalent movement aged 15, it was at the tail end of decades of political violence, on both right and left, which she said Kirk’s killing echoed. She has often cast her teenage activism as a rebellion against her school teachers and the leftist mainstream in the neighborhood in which she grew up. Now, with her party leading the government, right-wing activism has become less toxic. According to Alfonso Pepe, a 29-year-old lawyer from Salerno who joined the movement aged 15, it has “definitely become easier, because we are in government … before, you were marginalized by society.” But movement leader Roscani said it is still challenging for students, who come up against broader perceptions that the National Youth’s views are outmoded and unacceptable. “We always say they have to study more, be the best in the class.” “As we’ve shown, we can govern this country,” Meloni told attendees. “We are not afraid. We will never be like the left, who hate.”