LONDON — Rachel Reeves needs at least one good news story to sell.
The under-fire U.K. finance minister is gearing up for a tricky budget next week
— and slashing Brits’ energy bills could give her something to shout about.
Officials in the Treasury and at No. 10 Downing Street are exploring ways to cut
domestic energy costs by shifting some levies currently added to household bills
into general taxation, said three government figures granted anonymity to
discuss pre-budget planning.
Ministers are targeting a cut of between £150 and £170 on an annual household
bill, according to one of the three figures.
That would get Chancellor Reeves and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband halfway toward
a totemic election promise of slashing bills by £300 by 2030 — and give the
government something positive to pitch on budget day.
Officials are looking at “big numbers,” said another of the figures. “It could
be a significant moment.”
A cut to VAT on energy bills is also under consideration, they said, echoing
previous reports.
Number crunching by green policy wonks shows how Reeves, via those changes to
levies and a potential VAT cut, could get the Treasury to its magic number.
PRIORITY: BILLS
Energy bills are the single biggest factor cited by voters as a cost-of-living
concern, according to polls. Left-leaning think tank the Institute for Public
Policy Research, which is highly influential in government circles, has called
on Labour ministers to launch a “war on bills” campaign, modeled on Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese’s approach in Australia.
The hope in the Treasury is that, by conjuring up a sum large enough to win some
prominent headlines, Reeves might land a good news story on energy bills on a
day otherwise set to be dominated by a “smorgasbord” of unpopular tax rises.
Energy prices were “still very high for people,” Reeves acknowledged earlier
this month. She pledged to make action on the cost of living “one of the three
priorities for the budget,” alongside reducing national debt and protecting the
National Health Service.
Last week, nine Labour MPs, including the chair of parliament’s Environmental
Audit Committee, Toby Perkins, wrote to Reeves urging her to move all social and
environmental levies from bills into taxation.
Advocates regard this as a fairer way to ensure the costs fall on those with the
broadest shoulders.
“The public wants to see action to reduce energy bills, which now ranks as the
most worrying household expense amongst the population,” the letter, coordinated
by charity the MCS Foundation, said.
OPTIONS
A dizzying array of levies are charged on bills to pay for renewable energy
projects, energy-efficiency schemes and the costs of maintaining a stable
electricity system. Collectively, they make up around 18 percent of the average
electricity bill.
It isn’t yet clear which might be moved into taxation, but the first government
figure above said the so-called Renewables Obligation — a charge that provides
an income for older clean energy projects, some built 20 years ago — is the
leading candidate to be shifted onto taxation.
The think tank Nesta, which has calculated the value of the reform, says it
could potentially cut electricity bills by £86. The New Economics Foundation
think tank puts the figure at around £95.
The government is also looking at the Energy Company Obligation, according to
reports, which is currently levied on electricity and gas bills. That could
instead be paid for using spending already allocated to the £13.2 billion Warm
Homes Plan.
The Warm Homes Plan is expected to pay for energy-efficiency measures, solar
panels and electric heating for poorer households — but full details have not
yet been finalized.
Cornwall Insight, a consultancy which forecasts future trends in the energy
market, said Tuesday that cutting VAT on energy bills from 5 percent to zero at
the budget could bring down annual bills by a further £80.
NET ZERO CONSENT
Ministers hope taking direct action on bills will shore up public confidence in
the government’s wider energy and climate agenda, which includes a stretching
target to almost fully decarbonize electricity by 2030 and hit net zero
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The goal in the long run is to reduce U.K. dependence on gas, the volatile price
of which has done major damage to household finances in recent years.
But the problem for the government is that actions required to achieve that
strategy are — in the short term at least — pushing up bills. The costs of
investing in new clean power sources like offshore wind farms, along with the
electricity lines and pylons required to clean up the energy system, are all
adding to costs.
The independent National Energy System Operator expects charges on energy bills
to pay for upgrading the power grid to hit £93.48 next year, a jump of £40.
Further increases are anticipated as vast pylon-building projects gather steam.
“This is a really delicate time for prices and their link to the legitimacy of
the energy transition,” said Adam Berman, director of policy and advocacy at
Energy UK, speaking in September. If ministers don’t look at ways to lower bills
now, he argued, “they will be lining themselves up for a very challenging start
to next year.”
Opposition parties have seized on this weakness in the government’s energy
strategy. The Conservatives are calling for a Cheap Power Plan (rather than a
clean one). Nigel Farage’s Reform UK said it would tear up expensive government
contracts with offshore wind projects and abandon net zero altogether.
“Bills are the number one public concern,” said Sam Alvis, director of energy at
the IPPR. “Regardless of whether it’s to underpin support for the clean power
mission, any government needs to show it’s heard that message from the public
that they want action on cost. Without that sense of public buy-in now, there’s
no hope for any longer term economic or energy reforms.”
A Treasury spokesperson confirmed action on the cost of living was a priority
for Reeves but said: “We do not comment on budget speculation.”