Many describe our geopolitical moment as one of instability, but that word feels too weak for what we are living through. Some, like Mark Carney, argue that we are facing a rupture: a break with assumptions that anchored the global economic and political order for decades. Others, like Christine Lagarde, see a profound transition, a shift toward a new configuration of power, technology and societal expectations. Whichever perception we adopt, the implication is clear: leaders can no longer rely on yesterday’s mental models, institutional routines or governance templates. Johanna Mair is the Director of the Florence School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute in Florence, where she leads education, training and research on governance beyond the nation state. Security, for example, is no longer a discrete policy field. It now reaches deeply into energy systems, artificial intelligence, cyber governance, financial stability and democratic resilience, all under conditions of strategic competition and mistrust. At the same time, competitiveness cannot be reduced to productivity metrics or short-term growth rates. It is about a society’s capacity to innovate, regulate effectively and mobilize investment toward long-term objectives — from the green and digital transitions to social cohesion. This dense web of interdependence is where transnational governance is practiced every day. The European Union illustrates this reality vividly. No single member state can build the capacity to manage these transformations on its own. EU institutions and other regional bodies shape regulatory frameworks and collective responses; corporations influence infrastructure and supply chains; financial institutions direct capital flows; and civic actors respond to social fragmentation and governance gaps. Effective leadership has become a systemic endeavour: it requires coordination across these levels, while sustaining public legitimacy and defending liberal democratic principles. > Our mission is to teach and train current and future leaders, equipping them > with the knowledge, skills and networks to tackle global challenges in ways > that are both innovative and grounded in democratic values. The Florence School of Transnational Governance (STG) at the European University Institute was created precisely to respond to this need. Located in Florence and embedded in a European institution founded by EU member states, the STG is a hub where policymakers, business leaders, civil society, media and academia meet to work on governance beyond national borders. Our mission is to teach and train current and future leaders, equipping them with the knowledge, skills and networks to tackle global challenges in ways that are both innovative and grounded in democratic values. What makes this mission distinctive is not only the topics we address, but also how and with whom we address them. We see leadership development as a practice embedded in real institutions, not a purely classroom-based exercise. People do not come to Florence to observe transnational governance from a distance; they come to practice it, test hypotheses and co-create solutions with peers who work on the frontlines of policy and politics. This philosophy underpins our portfolio of programs, from degree offerings to executive education. With early career professionals, we focus on helping them understand and shape governance beyond the state, whether in international organizations, national administrations, the private sector or civil society. We encourage them to see institutions not as static structures, but as arrangements that can and must be strengthened and reformed to support a liberal, rules-based order under stress. At the same time, we devote significant attention to practitioners already in positions of responsibility. Our Global Executive Master (GEM) is designed for experienced professionals who cannot pause their careers, but recognize that the governance landscape in which they operate has changed fundamentally. Developed by the STG, the GEM convenes participants from EU institutions, national administrations, international organizations, business and civil society — professionals from a wide range of nationalities and institutional backgrounds, reflecting the coalitions required to address complex problems. The program is structured to fit the reality of leadership today. Delivered part time over two years, it combines online learning with residential periods in Florence and executive study visits in key policy centres. This blended format allows participants to remain in full-time roles while advancing their qualifications and networks, and it ensures that learning is continuously tested against institutional realities rather than remaining an abstract exercise. Participants specialize in tracks such as geopolitics and security, tech and governance, economy and finance, or energy and climate. Alongside this subject depth, they build capabilities more commonly associated with top executive programs than traditional public policy degrees: change management, negotiations, strategic communication, foresight and leadership under uncertainty. These skills are essential for bridging policy design and implementation — a gap that is increasingly visible as governments struggle to deliver on ambitious agendas. Executive study visits are a core element of this practice-oriented approach. In a recent Brussels visit, GEM participants engaged with high-level speakers from the European Commission, the European External Action Service, the Council, the European Parliament, NATO, Business Europe, Fleishman Hillard and POLITICO itself. Over several days, they discussed foreign and security policy, industrial strategy, strategic foresight and the governance of emerging technologies. These encounters do more than illustrate theory; they give participants a chance to stress-test their assumptions, understand the constraints facing decision-makers and build relationships across institutional boundaries. via EUI Throughout the program, each participant develops a capstone project that addresses a strategic challenge connected to a policy organization, often their own employer. This ensures that executive education translates into institutional impact: projects range from new regulatory approaches and partnership models to internal reforms aimed at making organizations more agile and resilient. At the same time, they help weave a durable transnational network of practitioners who can work together beyond the programme. Across our activities at the STG, a common thread runs through our work: a commitment to defending and renewing the liberal order through concrete practice. Addressing the rupture or transition we are living through requires more than technical fixes. It demands leaders who can think systemically, act across borders and design governance solutions that are both unconventional and democratically legitimate. > Across our activities at the STG, a common thread runs through our work: a > commitment to defending and renewing the liberal order through concrete > practice. In a period defined by systemic risk and strategic competition, leadership development cannot remain sectoral or reactive. It must be interdisciplinary, practice-oriented and anchored in real policy environments. At the Florence School of Transnational Governance, we aim to create precisely this kind of learning community — one where students, fellows and executives work side by side to reimagine how institutions can respond to global challenges. For policymakers and professionals who recognize themselves in this moment of rupture, our programs — including the GEM — offer a space to step back, learn with peers and return to their institutions better equipped to lead change. The task is urgent, but it is also an opportunity: by investing in transnational governance education today, we can help lay the foundations for a more resilient and inclusive order tomorrow.

LONDON — The U.K. government said Friday that it will allow the U.S. to fly missions from British bases in order to bomb Iranian missile sites that are targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A Downing Street spokesperson said ministers meeting Friday afternoon had “confirmed” that Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s agreement for the U.S. to use British sites for defensive operations includes actions to “degrade the missile sites and capabilities being used to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.” “They reaffirmed that the principles behind the U.K.’s approach to the conflict remain the same: the U.K. remains committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict,” Downing Street added. The spokesperson said the U.K. is still working with partners to develop “a viable plan” to safeguard shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Details on any proposals have been scant so far. Since the beginning of the Iran conflict, Starmer has been keen to stress the U.K. is on its own path, one not dictated by the U.S. This is the first time the U.K. has confirmed that U.S. bombers can use two British bases to hit Iranian missile sites that are targeting commercial shipping in the Strait. Previously Britain had said the U.S. could use its bases to target Iranian missile sites that were attacking the U.K.’s allies in the Gulf, without citing commercial shipping. Downing Street officials insisted on Friday night that defending shipping falls within the existing remit for cooperation with the U.S. that Starmer agreed on March 1. The prime minister has repeatedly called this remit “specific and limited” and stressed it is only for a “defensive” purpose. The two British bases being used by American bombers are RAF Fairford in England and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The decision will put Starmer under renewed pressure from critics of Britain’s involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran as he continues to insist — despite the Friday statement — that the U.K. is not being drawn into the wider conflict.

BERLIN — German Defense Minister Boris Pistorus will spend next week touring the Indo-Pacific with a passel of corporate chiefs in tow to make deals across the region. It’s part of an effort to mark a greater impact in an area where Berlin’s presence has been minor, but whose importance is growing as Germany looks to build up access to natural resources, technology and allies in a fracturing world. “If you look at the Indo-Pacific, Germany is essentially starting from scratch,” said Bastian Ernst, a defense lawmaker from Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats. “We don’t have an established role yet, we’re only just beginning to figure out what that should be.” Pistorius leaves Friday on an eight-day tour to Japan, Singapore and Australia where he’ll be aiming to build relations with other like-minded middle powers — mirroring countries from France to Canada as they scramble to figure out new relationships in a world destabilized by Russia, China and a United States led by Donald Trump. “Germany recognizes this principle of interconnected theaters,” said Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp, visiting fellow of the Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Berlin, she said, “increasingly sees Europe’s focus on Russia and Asia’s focus on China and North Korea as security issues that are linked.” The military and defense emphasis of next week’s trip marks a departure from Berlin’s 2020 Indo-Pacific guidelines, which laid a much heavier focus on trade and diplomacy. Pistorius’ outreach will be especially important as Germany rapidly ramps up military spending at home. Berlin is on track to boost its defense budget to around €150 billion a year by the end of the decade and is preparing tens of billions in new procurement contracts. But not everything Germany needs can be sourced in Europe. Australia is one of the few alternatives to China in critical minerals essential to the defense industry. It’s a leading supplier of lithium and one of the only significant producers of separated rare earth materials outside China. Australia also looms over a key German defense contract. Berlin is considering whether to stick with a naval laser weapon being developed by homegrown firms Rheinmetall and MBDA, or team up with Australia’s EOS instead. That has become a more sensitive political question in Berlin. WELT, owned by POLITICO’s parent company Axel Springer, reported that lawmakers had stopped the planned contract for the German option, reflecting wider concern over whether Berlin should back a domestic system or move faster with a foreign one. That means what Pistorius sees in Australia could end up shaping a decision back in Germany. TALKING TO TOKYO Japan offers something different — not raw materials but military integration, logistics and technology.  Pohlkamp said the military side of the relationship with Japan is now “very much about interoperability and compatibility, built through joint exercises, mutual visits, closer staff work, expanded information exchange and mutual learning.” She described Japan as “a kind of yardstick for Germany,” a country that lives with “an enormous threat perception” not only militarily but also economically, because it is surrounded by pressure from China, North Korea and Russia.  The Japan-Germany Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement took effect in July 2024, giving the two militaries a framework for reciprocal supplies and services and making future port calls for naval vessels, exercises and recurring cooperation easier to sustain.  Pohlkamp said what matters most to Tokyo are not headline-grabbing deployments but “plannable, recurring contributions, which are more valuable than big, one-off shows of force.” But that ambition only goes so far if Germany’s presence remains sporadic. Bundeswehr recruits march on the market square to take their ceremonial oath in Altenburg on March 19, 2026. | Bodo Schackow/picture alliance via Getty Images Berlin has sent military assets to the region for training exercises in recent years — a frigate in 2021, combat aircraft in 2022, army participation in 2023, and a larger naval mission in 2024. But as pressure grows on Germany to beef up its military to hold off Russia, along with its growing presence in Lithuania and its effort to keep supplying Ukraine with weapons, the attention given to Asia is shrinking. The government told parliament last year it sent no frigate in 2025, plans none in 2026 and has not yet decided on 2027. Germany’s current military engagement in the Indo-Pacific consists of a single P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, sent to India in February as part of the Indo-Pacific Deployment 2026 exercises.  Germany, according to Ernst, is still “relatively blank” in the region. What it can contribute militarily remains narrow: “A bit of maritime patrol, a frigate, mine clearance.” Pohlkamp said Germany’s role in Asia is still being built “in small doses” and is largely symbolic. But what matters is whether Berlin can turn occasional visits and deployments into something steadier and more predictable. The defense ministry insists that is the point of Pistorius’s trip. Ministry spokesperson Mitko Müller said Wednesday that Europe and the Indo-Pacific are “inseparably linked,” citing the rules-based order, sea lanes, international law and the role of the two regions in global supply and value chains.  The new P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft stands in front of a technical hangar at Nordholz airbase on Nov. 20, 2025. | Christian Butt/picture alliance via Getty Images The trip is meant to focus on the regional security situation, expanding strategic dialogue, current and possible military cooperation, joint exercises including future Indo-Pacific deployments, and industrial cooperation. That explains why industry is traveling with Pistorius.  Müller said executives from Airbus, TKMS, MBDA, Quantum Systems, Diehl and Rohde & Schwarz are coming along, suggesting Berlin sees the trip as a chance to widen defense ties on the ground. But any larger German role in Asia would have to careful calibrated to avoid angering China — a key trading partner that is very wary of European powers expanding their regional presence. “That leaves Germany trying to do two things at once,” Pohlkamp said. “First, show up often enough to matter, but not so forcefully that it gets dragged into a confrontation it is neither politically nor militarily prepared to sustain.”

BRUSSELS — EU leaders were supposed to spend Thursday mapping out how to boost Europe’s economy. Instead, they were left scrambling to deal with two wars, a deepening transatlantic rift and a standoff over Ukraine. Twelve hours of talks, a few showdowns and many, many coffees later, here’s POLITICO’s rapid round-up of what we learned at the European Council. 1) Viktor Orbán’s not a man for moving … The most pressing question ahead of this summit was whether Hungary’s prime minister could be convinced to drop his veto to the EU’s €90 billion loan for Ukraine. He wasn’t. The European Commission had attempted to appease Orbán in the days running up to the summit by sending a mission of experts to Ukraine to inspect the damaged Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Orbán has argued that Ukraine is deliberately not addressing the issue, and tied that to his blocking of the cash. Asked whether he saw any chance for progress on the loan going into the summit, Orbán’s response was simple: “No.” Twelve hours later, that answer was much the same. 2) … But he does like to stretch his legs. In one of the most striking images to have come out of Thursday’s summit, the Hungarian prime minister stands on the sidelines of the outer circle of the room while the rest of the leaders are in their usual spots listening to a virtual address from Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (on screen) speaks to EU leaders via video at the European Council summit in Brussels, March 19, 2026. | Pool photo by Geert Vanden Wijngaert/OL / AFP via Getty Images The relationship between the two has descended into outright acrimony after the Hungarian leader refused to back the EU loan and the Ukrainian leader made veiled threats — which even drew the (rare) rebuke of the Commission. Faced with Zelenskyy’s address, the Hungarian decided to vote with his feet. 3) The new kid on the block is happy to be a part of this European family, dysfunctional as it may be. This was the first leaders’ summit for Rob Jetten, the Netherland’s newly-installed prime minister. Ahead of the meeting, he said he was “very much looking forward to being part of this family.” His verdict after the talks? That leaders differ greatly in their speaking style, with some quite efficient while others take longer to get to the point — but he welcomed the jokes of Belgian’s Bart De Wever, “especially when the meeting has been going on for hours.” 5) Though not everyone was so charitable. Broadly speaking, Orbán digging in his heels did not go down well. Sweden’s prime minister told reporters after the summit that leaders’ criticism of the Hungarian in the room was “very, very harsh,” and like nothing he’d ever heard at an EU summit. Jetten said the vibe in the room with EU leaders was “icy” at points, with “awkward silences.”  6) The EU’s not giving up on the loan. Despite murmurs ahead of the talks of a plan B in the works, multiple EU leaders as well as Costa and Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen were adamant that the loan was the only way to go — and that it will happen, eventually. “We will deliver one way or the other … Today, we have strengthened our resolve,” von der Leyen. Costa added: “Nobody can blackmail the European Council, no one can blackmail the European Union.” Top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas arrives at the European Council summit on March 19, 2026. | Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images 7) Kaja Kallas wants to avoid a messy entanglement. In her address to the bloc’s leaders, Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, stressed the importance of not getting caught up in the conflict in the Middle East. “Starting war is like a love affair — it’s easy to get in and difficult to get out,” she said, according to two diplomats briefed by leaders on the closed-door talks. At the same time, Kallas reiterated the importance of the EU’s defending its interests in the region but said there was little appetite for expanding the remit of its Aspides naval mission, currently operating in the Red Sea. 8) But it was all roses with the U.N. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres joined the Council for lunch, thanking them for their “strong support for multilateralism and international law.” In an an exclusive interview with POLITICO on the sidelines of the summit, Guterres applauded the restraint shown by the Europeans, despite Donald Trump’s anger at their refusal to actively support the war or help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime artery that Iran has largely sealed off, driving up global energy prices. 9) Kinda. One senior EU official told POLITICO that the lunch meeting was “unnecessary.” “With all appreciation for multilateralism and its importance … considering the role the U.N. is not playing in international crises right now, it is unnecessary,” said the official, granted anonymity to speak freely. 10) Celery is a very versatile vegetable. Also on the table while they picked over the future of the multilateral world order was a pâté en croûte with spring vegetables and fillet of veal with celery three ways. Three ways! And for dessert? A mandarin tartlet with cinnamon. 11) Cyprus and Greece want the EU to get serious about mutual defense. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis asked the EU to think about a roadmap for acting on the bloc’s mutual defense clause, according to two EU diplomats and one senior European government official. The clause, Article 42.7, is the EU’s equivalent of NATO’s Article 5. Its existence and potential use has recently come into focus since British bases in Cyprus were attacked by drones. 12) And the Commission hopes it’s already got serious enough about migration. Von der Leyen said that while the EU has not yet experienced an increase in migrants as a result of the conflict in Iran, the bloc should be prepared. “There is absolutely no appetite … to repeat the situation of 2015 in the event of large migration flows resulting from the conflict in the Middle East,” said one national official. The Commission chief emphasized that the mistakes of the 2015 refugee crisis won’t happen again. 13) Von der Leyen likes to cross her Ts.   Speaking of emphasis — “temporary, tailored and targeted” was how von der Leyen described the EU’s short-term actions to minimize the impact on Europe of the recent energy price spikes after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The moves will impact four components that affect energy prices: energy costs, grid charges, taxes and levies and carbon pricing, she said. 14) The ETS is here to stay — with some modifications. While EU leaders agreed to make some adjustments to the Emissions Trading System — the bloc’s carbon market — most forcefully backed the continuation of the system itself. “This ETS is a great success. It has been in place for 20 years and is a market-based and technology-neutral system. So we are not calling the ETS into question,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters after the talks had concluded. While the Commission will propose some adjustments to the ETS by July, these are merely adjustments, not fundamental changes, the German leader said. In the run-up to the summit, some EU countries, including Italy, floated the idea of weakening the ETS to help weather soaring energy prices. 15) No matter what, EU leaders want to get home — ASAP. While Costa has so far ensured every European Council under his watch lasts only one day instead of the once-customary two, this time around, that goal was looking optimistic. However, at the end of the day, leaders’ dogged determination to get out of there prevailed (even if that meant kicking a discussion on the long-term budget to April). À bientôt!

BRUSSELS — Viktor Orbán has been attending European summits for 16 years. At what may turn out to be his swan song, he faced EU leaders separating themselves into good cops and bad, hoping to persuade him to approve a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. He saw them all off. But his victory may be short-lived. The bloc’s longest-serving government chief, facing an election in less than a month that he’s forecast to lose, has long been a thorn in the side of Brussels (which also means Paris, Berlin and a score of other capitals). There was no sign at Thursday’s European Council that even if he is preparing to walk off into the sunset he’s any less stubborn — or any more admired. “Nobody can blackmail the European Council, nobody can blackmail the European institutions,” European Council President António Costa, who chaired the meeting, told reporters, in an extraordinary broadside. “It is completely unacceptable what Hungary is doing.” The Hungarian prime minister reneged on a promise he’d made at a summit in December to approve the loan. In doing so, he’s undermining the very fabric of EU decision-making, which relies on governments sticking to iron-clad commitments, leaders said. Orbán “is violating one of the fundamental principles of our cooperation,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said shortly after the summit wrapped. His refusal to approve the Ukraine loan after formally giving his consent in December “is a serious breach of the loyalty among member states, undermines the European Union’s ability to act and damages the reputation of the EU as a whole.” With Europe looking impotent as war in the Middle East escalates, leaders hoped they could at least get money flowing to Ukraine to help it fend off Russia — in a conflict where the EU feels it actually has some sway. But the mood was grim. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was beamed into the meeting by video link after for so long being a ray of light at EU gatherings, seemed to make things worse rather than better. HARSH CRITICISM EU leaders divided into two groups to convince Orbán to change his mind. Most, including Costa, piled on the pressure. “It was very, very harsh criticism and the feeling was this simply cannot go on like this,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told reporters. “I have never heard such hard-hitting criticism at an EU summit of anyone, ever.” Costa said no leader has ever violated “this red line before.”  There were some leaders who tried the opposite approach. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and, though less effusive, Belgium’s Bart De Wever, attempted to appeal to Orbán’s ego, speaking sympathetically about understanding his position, five diplomats and an EU official granted anonymity to speak freely told POLITICO. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to EU leaders via video during a rountable of the EU Summit in Brussels on March 19, 2026. | Geert Vanden Wijngaert/Pool/AFP via Getty Images “You have to treat him like a 6-year-old child, you have to humor him,” said one of the diplomats. Ahead of the summit, the EU cooked up a compromise they hoped would let Orbán to save face in his election campaign yet still approve the loan. The EU was prepared to hold back from dispensing the money until oil flowed through the Druzhba pipeline, which brings Russian oil to Hungary and was damaged by a Russian drone in January, according to two EU diplomats and an EU official. In recent weeks, the Hungarian prime minister has linked the pipeline issue to the loan and accused Ukraine of not repairing Druzhba for political reasons — making it an election issue by painting himself as the protector of his country’s interests. Zelenskyy has said he doesn’t want to repair a pipeline that the Russians have repeatedly attacked, which helps fund the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of his country. Costa said during his press conference that Russia had damaged the pipeline 23 times since launching the full-scale invasion. “What I have done today is to crush the oil blockade, which [was] imposed on us by Zelenskyy,” Orbán said after the summit. “So I defended the interest of the country.” AFTER THE ELECTION Merz was among a group of leaders who hoped the Ukrainian president would use his address to the summit to reduce the temperature and reassure Orbán that he would fix the pipeline. Instead, Zelenskyy went on the offensive. “Zelenskyy played it harder than [our] expectations,” perhaps believing “he can wait it out,” said a government official who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the closed-door talks, like others quoted in the article. If Orbán wins the election next month, “maybe [Zelenskyy’s] calculation is that he will change his tone after.” While Ukraine desperately needs the EU’s €90 billion, Zelenskyy now has more time after the International Monetary Fund approved an $8.1 billion loan late last month. Kyiv should have enough money to stay solvent until early May, POLITICO reported. The antipathy between Orbán and Zelenskyy runs deep, according to a senior EU diplomat, and the ill will was on full display on Thursday. The Hungarian prime minister got up from his seat and stood behind the other leaders, looking on with contempt as Zelenskyy appeared on their screens, according to a diplomat. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky (on screen) speaks to EU leaders via video as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán watches from the distance (bottom) at the European Council summit in Brussels, March 19, 2026. | Pool photo by Geert Vanden Wijngaert/OL / AFP via Getty Images After 90 minutes, with Zelenskyy digging in and the Hungarian not budging, the leaders decided to shut down the debate, issuing a statement that “the European Council will revert to this issue at its next meeting.” The bet is that one way or another, things will be different after Hungarians go to the polls on April 12. If Orbán loses, then his successor could be motivated to lift Budapest’s obstruction in exchange for the EU releasing cash. “France and Germany were not willing to spend too much time” or “political capital” to persuade Orbán at Thursday’s summit, and had “no willingness … to help his electoral campaign,” the national official said. If Orbán is reelected — which one EU official said many of the leaders in the summit room on Thursday believe is likely — then he may be more willing to approve the loan, once oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline again. But if he doesn’t, several punishments will be on the table at a leaders’ gathering in Cyprus on April 23-24, including freezing more funding, suing Hungary in the EU’s top court, issuing fines, and even the so-called nuclear option, Article 7, which strips countries of their EU voting rights. AWKWARD SILENCES The atmosphere during Thursday’s discussion was “icy” at points, with “awkward silences,” Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said. It means the saga of the EU’s loan to Ukraine, which at one point the bloc was hoping to have resolved as long ago as a summit in October, is delayed for at least another month. A failure of leaders’ powers of persuasion? Not quite, maybe. “There was no way Orbán was going to say yes anyway,” one of the EU diplomats said. Most EU leaders hope it’s his last hurrah. Nette Nöstlinger, Nicholas Vinocur, Gerardo Fortuna, Gabriel Gavin, Hans von der Burchard, Sonja Rijnen, Zia Weise, Seb Starcevic, Giorgio Leali, Hanne Cokelaere, Ferdinand Knapp, Milena Wälde, Aude van den Hove, Gregorio Sorgi, Koen Verhelst, Victor Jack, Ben Munster, Jacopo Barigazzi and Bartosz Brzezińksi contributed reporting.

BRUSSELS — The EU’s top diplomat warned leaders at a summit on Thursday that the bloc could easily become entangled in a toxic conflict in the Middle East that could be difficult to extricate itself from. High Representative Kaja Kallas used a speech at a European Council in Brussels to caution against joining an open-ended war against Iran led by the U.S. and Israel. “Starting war is like a love affair — it’s easy to get in and difficult to get out,” she said, according to two diplomats briefed by leaders on the closed-door talks, which are only attended by presidents and prime ministers. At the same time, Kallas reiterated the importance of the EU’s defending its interests in the region but said there was little appetite for expanding the remit of its Aspides naval mission, currently operating in the Red Sea. U.S. President Donald Trump has called on allies — including European nations such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom — to help escort civilian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil and gas prices have spiked in recent days after Tehran closed the strategic waterway to shipping, stranding oil and gas tankers serving fossil fuel-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. “I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Strait?’ That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday. Kallas’ team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

BRUSSELS — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni broke ranks with much of the EU by speaking sympathetically about Hungary’s Viktor Orbán over his stance on Ukraine during a private session of Thursday’s European summit. Meloni told her counterparts she understood the reasons the Hungarian leader had angered the bloc by going back on his word and refusing a €90 billion loan to Ukraine after having approved it in December, five diplomats familiar with the confidential discussions — none of whom were from Italy — told POLITICO. Orbán’s about-turn has infuriated his fellow leaders and stunned Ukraine, which is running out of money as its war with Russia drags into its fifth year, and goes against EU convention because of his formal approval just weeks ago. Meloni and Orbán are both rightwingers but the Italian leader has broadly stuck to the mainstream EU line, in which the Hungarian government has been seen as obstructionist. While Meloni emphasized in the meeting that she personally still supported the loan being channeled to Ukraine immediately, she said she understood the position of Orbán, who faces an election next month, according to the five diplomats, representing four different European countries. One of the five diplomats quoted Meloni as saying that Orbán’s stance was “normal” because “things change” and that “if I were in the same situation I would understand it.” The Italian government denied that. “The sentence attributed to the prime minister is totally baseless” an official from Meloni’s office in Rome said. All diplomats quoted in this article were granted anonymity to allow them to speak freely about the discussions, which were not held in public. None of them were in the room because it was almost exclusively only leaders present. Those leaders briefed diplomats. OIL LINK Hungary and Slovakia are blocking the release of the funds, which needs all EU governments to approve. Budapest has linked its consent to demands Ukraine repair the Druzhba pipeline, which brings Russian oil to Hungary and was damaged by a Russian drone in January, weeks after all 27 EU countries backed the loan plan. Orbán has accused Kyiv of deliberately delaying the repairs. The EU has said the issues of the loan and the pipeline are not connected. An announcement on Tuesday that the EU had agreed with the Ukrainian government to fund repairs and send a fact-finding mission to the site was not enough to overcome Orbán’s objections on Thursday. The Hungarian prime minister has previously been constructive and should be expected to drop his veto if the pipeline reopens, Meloni also said, according to the diplomats. Meloni is a strong advocate for Ukraine and also maintains friendly relations with both Orbán and U.S. President Donald Trump, who has at times wavered in his support for Kyiv. She has also publicly backed Orbán in his reelection bid. RED LINES Most other EU leaders reacted with fury on Thursday morning as it became apparent Orbán didn’t intend to budge on the loan.  European Council President António Costa blasted the decision as “unacceptable” and an unprecedented violation of a “red line” in behavior, diplomats told POLITICO. Aside from Hungary and Slovakia, the remaining 25 countries have since issued a joint statement welcoming the decision to loan the €90 billion and calling for “the first disbursement to Ukraine by the beginning of April.” In a video posted following the talks, Orbán said the discussion had been “tough, I was under pressure from all sides … but they tried this in the wrong place and at the wrong time.”

BRUSSELS — The EU’s 27 member countries are set to back a push to send more naval ships to the Middle East as conflict paralyzes shipping routes, but will insist on them operating strictly within the parameters of missions that predate the war in Iran. Presidents and prime ministers from across the bloc will meet in Brussels Thursday to discuss their response to the Iran crisis. In a draft statement being negotiated by ambassadors in advance of the talks — seen by POLITICO — the leaders show support for an increased naval presence in the region. “The European Council highlights the role of the EU maritime defensive operations EUNAVFOR ASPIDES and EUNAVFOR ATALANTA, and calls for their reinforcement with more assets,” reads the latest version of the text, dated March 17. However, the text introduces new language demanding that the vessels take part in the missions only “in line with their respective mandates.” The EU-led Aspides is confined to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and was launched in 2024 in response to Houthi militant attacks on naval traffic travelling to and from Europe via the Suez Canal. Atalanta, meanwhile, patrols the east coast of Africa and the Indian Ocean to combat piracy. The Trump administration has urged European allies to send frigates to escort naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices have skyrocketed as a result of tankers being unable to cross the narrow waterway, which links oil- and gas-rich exporters like Saudi Arabia and Qatar to the global market. “I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Strait?’ That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday. Ahead of the EU summit, a group of countries — Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus — have written to the bloc’s leadership warning of another potential maritime crisis caused by the Russian liquefied natural gas carrier Arctic Metagaz, which has been adrift in the Mediterranean since March 3. “The precarious condition of the vessel, combined with the nature of its specialised cargo, gives rise to an imminent and serious risk of a major ecological disaster in the heart of the Union’s maritime space,” the leaders of the coastal nations warned. “In this context, we look to the European Commission to facilitate the mobilisation and coordination of Member States and existing EU-level mechanisms, with the goal of ensuring their more efficient, better coordinated and faster response.”

A top Pentagon official told lawmakers Tuesday that existing military operations targeting Latin American drug cartels are “just the beginning” — and left open the possibility of deploying ground forces even as lethal boat strikes against alleged smugglers continue indefinitely. The comments from Joseph Humire, acting assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense, during a House Armed Services Committee hearing raised immediate concerns from congressional Democrats who said the efforts appear to be another “forever war” without clear goals or a stated end date. It’s the latest example of the administration doubling down on aggressive foreign policy interventions without clarifying what victory might look like, despite President Donald Trump’s past campaign pledges to avoid embroiling America in more overseas conflicts. And it raises the prospect that the nation’s armed forces could be further strained amid a massive air war over Iran. Democrats on Tuesday also questioned military leaders’ assertions that the six-month effort to sink smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific has made a meaningful impact on illegal drugs entering American borders, and whether it follows proper rules of engagement for enemy combatants or amounts to war crimes. “We could shoot suspected criminals dead on the street here in America, and it may be a deterrent to crime, but that doesn’t make it legal,” said Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.). But Humire insisted the open-ended missions — dubbed Operation Southern Spear — are “saving American lives” and compliment President Donald Trump’s other border security mandates. “Interdiction is necessary, but insufficient,” he said. “Deterrence has a signaling effect on narco-terrorists, and raises the risks with their movements.” At least 157 people have been killed in 45 strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats in the seas around South America since early September, according to Defense Department statistics. More than 15,000 service members have been deployed to the region for counter-drug missions, training efforts and blockade enforcement over the last six months, though some of those numbers have been drawn down since the start of the conflict in Iran. Humire said officials have seen a 20 percent reduction in suspected drug vessels traveling the Caribbean and a 25 percent reduction in the Eastern Pacific traffic since the start of the military operations. But committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) questioned whether those numbers actually translate into fewer drugs on American streets, or simply evidence that smugglers are being forced into other shipping lanes or land routes. Humire said officials are looking to expand to land strikes against known cartel routes and hideouts, but are working with partner country militaries on that work. The U.S. Defense Department launched operations with Ecuadorian forces against narco-terrorist groups in that country earlier this month. He would not, however, rule out potential unilateral strikes in South American countries later on. Smith called that hedge concerning. Republicans on the committee largely praised the military’s anti-drug operations, dismissing the Democratic criticism. “Defending the homeland does not stop at our border,” said committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.). “It also requires confronting threats at their source. The president has made it clear that narco-terrorists and hostile foreign powers will find no sanctuary or foothold anywhere in our hemisphere.”

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Die Bundesregierung lässt Donald Trump abblitzen: Mehrfach erteilte sie einer deutschen Beteiligung an einer Marine-Begleitung von Schiffen in der Straße von Hormus eine klare Absage. Doch die Geschichte mahnt zur Vorsicht: Gordon Repinski analysiert, warum Friedrich Merz Gefahr läuft, in eine „Schröder-Fischer-Falle“ wie im Jahr 2003 zu tappen. Damals wurde ein öffentliches „Nein“ zur Irak-Invasion hinter den Kulissen durch operative Unterstützung aufgeweicht. Droht nun erneut die Beteiligung durch die Hintertür? Und wie kann sich Merz aus dieser Falle befreien? Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht der außenpolitische Sprecher der SPD, Adis Ahmetovic, über Trumps strategielose und sinnlose Forderungen. Er erklärt, warum Deutschland trotz der bestehenden Mission im Roten Meer eine Ausweitung auf den Iran-Konflikt ablehnt und wie die Bundesrepublik dennoch ihre diplomatische Handlungsfähigkeit bewahren kann. Während Merz in Berlin auf Distanz zu Washington geht, brodelt es in der EVP: Berichte über eine geheime Zusammenarbeit von EVP-Mitarbeitern mit rechten Fraktionen im EU-Parlament bringen Merz und Markus Söder unter Zugzwang. Hans von der Burchard ordnet ein, wie dieser Skandal das Treffen mit EU-Parlamentspräsidentin Roberta Metsola überschattet und warum ein wackelnder EU-US-Handelsdeal das nächste große Risiko für den Kanzler darstellt. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna