DOHA, Qatar — Inside the U.S., President Donald Trump is dogged by rising
consumer prices, the Epstein files debacle, and Republicans’ newfound
willingness to defy him.
But go 100 miles, 1,000 miles, or, as I recently did, 7,000 miles past U.S.
borders, and Trump’s domestic challenges — and the sinking poll numbers that
accompany them — matter little.
The U.S. president remains a behemoth in the eyes of the rest of the world. A
person who could wreck another country. Or perhaps the only one who can fix
another country’s problems.
That’s the sense I got this weekend from talking to foreign officials and global
elites at this year’s Doha Forum, a major international gathering focused on
diplomacy and geopolitics.
Over sweets, caffeine and the buzz of nearby conversations, some members of the
jet set wondered if Trump’s domestic struggles will lead him to take more risks
abroad — and some hope he does. This comes as Trump faces criticism from key
MAGA players who say he’s already too focused on foreign policy.
“He doesn’t need Capitol Hill to get work done from a foreign policy
standpoint,” an Arab official said of Trump, who, let’s face it, has made it
abundantly clear he cares little about Congress.
Vuk Jeremic, a former Serbian foreign minister, told me that whether people like
Trump or not, “I don’t think that there is any doubt that he is a very, very
consequential global actor.”
He wasn’t the only one who used the term “consequential.”
The word doesn’t carry a moral judgment. A person can be consequential whether
they save the world or destroy it. What the word does indicate in this context
is the power of the U.S. presidency. The weakest U.S. president is still
stronger than the strongest leader of most other countries. America’s wealth,
weapons and global reach ensure that.
U.S. presidents have long had more latitude and ability to take direct action on
foreign policy than domestic policy. They also often turn to the global stage
when their national influence fades in their final years in office, when they
don’t have to worry about reelection. There’s a reason Barack Obama waited until
his final two years in office to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba.
In the first year of his second term, Trump has stunned the world repeatedly, on
everything from gutting U.S. foreign aid to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.
He remains as capricious as ever, shifting sides on everything from Russia’s war
on Ukraine to whether he wants to expel Palestinians from Gaza. He seeks a Nobel
Peace Prize but is threatening a potential war with Venezuela.
Trump managed to jolt the gathering at the glitzy Sheraton resort in Doha by
unveiling his National Security Strategy — which astonished foreign onlookers on
many levels — in the run-up to the event.
The part that left jaws on the floor was its attack on America’s allies in
Europe, which it claimed faces “civilizational erasure.” The strategy’s release
led one panel moderator to ask the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas,
whether Trump sees Europe as “the enemy.”
Yet, some foreign officials praised Trump’s disruptive moves and said they hope
he will keep shaking up a calcified international order that has left many
countries behind.
Several African leaders in particular said they wanted Trump to get more
involved in ending conflicts on their continent, especially Sudan. They don’t
care about the many nasty things Trump has said about Africa, waving that off as
irrelevant political rhetoric.
Trump claims to have already ended seven or eight wars. It’s a wild assertion,
not least because some of the conflicts he’s referring to weren’t wars and some
of the truces he’s brokered are shaky.
When I pointed this out, foreign officials told me to lower my bar. Peace is a
process, they stressed. If Trump can get that process going or rolling faster,
it’s a win.
Maybe there are still clashes between Rwanda and Congo. But at least Trump is
forcing the two sides to talk and agree to framework deals, they suggested.
“You should be proud of your president,” one African official said. (I granted
him and several others anonymity to candidly discuss sensitive diplomatic issues
involving the U.S.)
Likewise, there’s an appreciation in many diplomatic corners about the economic
lens Trump imposes on the world. Wealthy Arab states, such as Qatar, already are
benefiting from such commercial diplomacy.
Others want in, too.
“He’s been very clear that his Africa policy should focus on doing business with
Africa, and to me, that’s very progressive,” said Mthuli Ncube, Zimbabwe’s
finance minister. He added that one question in the global diplomatic community
is whether the next U.S. president — Democrat or Republican — will adopt Trump’s
“creativity.”
The diplomats and others gathered in Doha were well-aware that Trump appreciates
praise but also sometimes respects those who stand up to him. So one has to
tread carefully.
Kallas, for instance, downplayed the Trump team’s broadsides against Europe in
the National Security Strategy. Intentionally or not, her choice reflected the
power differential between the U.S. and the EU.
“The U.S. is still our biggest ally,” Kallas insisted.
Privately, another European official I spoke to was fuming. The strategy’s
accusations were “very disturbing,” they said.
The official agreed, nonetheless, that Trump is too powerful for European
countries to do much beyond stage some symbolic diplomatic protests.
Few Trump administration officials attended the Doha Forum. The top names were
Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, and Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador
to Turkey. Donald Trump Jr. — not a U.S. official, but certainly influential
— also made an appearance.
Several foreign diplomats expressed optimism that Trump’s quest for a Nobel
Peace Prize will guide him to take actions on the global stage that will
ultimately bring more stability in the world — even if it is a rocky ride.
A British diplomat said they were struck by Trump’s musings about gaining entry
to heaven. Maybe a nervousness about the afterlife could induce Trump to, say,
avoid a conflagration with Venezuela?
“He’s thinking about his legacy,” the diplomat said.
Even Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of State whom Trump defeated in the
2016 presidential race, was measured in her critiques.
Clinton said “there’s something to be said for the dramatic and bold action”
Trump takes. But she warned that the Trump team doesn’t do enough to ensure his
efforts, including peace deals, have lasting effect.
“There has to be so much follow-up,” she said during one forum event. “And there
is an aversion within the administration to the kind of work that is done by
Foreign Service officers, diplomats, others who are on the front lines trying to
fulfill these national security objectives.”
Up until the final minute of his presidency, Trump will have extraordinary power
that reaches far past America’s shores. That’s likely to be the case even if the
entire Republican Party has turned on him.
At the moment, he has more than three years to go. Perhaps he will end
immigration to the U.S., abandon Ukraine to Russia’s aggression or strike a
nuclear deal with Iran.
After all, Trump is, as Zimbabwe’s Ncube put it, not lacking in “creativity.”