German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Wednesday warned of a dangerous spiral of unintended consequences if the Middle East war escalates further. “There is a real risk of escalation, which could plunge not only this region but the entire world into a major crisis,” Wadephul said during a joint press conference with his French counterpart, Jean-Noël Barrot, in Berlin. The German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz was initially far more supportive of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran than many other EU countries, but Merz and his ministers have recently become far more openly critical of the war as the conflict has expanded and the economic and security impacts on the EU’s biggest economy have become clearer. Wadephul suggested some of the risks of the war — including the potential for a food crisis — had not been fully considered. “The fertilizer supply from this region [the Middle East] alone is so essential that a prolonged disruption would threaten to trigger a food crisis across large parts of Africa,” Wadephul said. “And that must fill us with concern for the people who would suffer, and of course also for the resulting refugee flows.” Germany is expected to be among the EU countries most impacted if the escalating war in the Middle East creates a new refugee crisis. Wadephul also said he wishes for a change of leadership in Iran “toward a humane, dignified regime,” but expressed doubt that this goal can be achieved through military force. ” I just don’t believe it can be brought about militarily from the outside,” he said. “We now face a major task to work together with our partners in the United States and Israel to find a point where the military objectives these two have set for themselves are achieved, and where we can then move toward de-escalation and a resolution of the hostilities, while at the same time, of course, ensuring security for the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf States.” Trump had warned NATO allies on Sunday that the alliance faces a “very bad future” if their countries refuse to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, pressing European allies to support an American effort to reopen the key maritime corridor. European leaders, however, rejected participation in such a mission.

Cindy McCain will step down as executive director of the U.N. World Food Program later this year, citing ongoing health concerns after suffering a mild stroke in October. McCain informed staff and the agency’s executive board today that she plans to leave her post in three months to focus on her recovery, according to a WFP statement. The 71-year-old returned to the Rome-based agency in early January but said the demands of the job were “outpacing” her recovery. “With a heavy heart, I am announcing my intention to step down,” McCain said, calling the decision “one of the most difficult” she has ever made. Carl Skau, No. 2 at WFP, will temporarily helm the agency while a successor is named. McCain’s final day has yet to be determined. McCain, the widow of late U.S. Sen. John McCain, took the helm of the world’s largest humanitarian organization in April 2023. Her tenure has been dominated by spiraling global hunger driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine, climate shocks and funding shortfalls. In a 2023 interview with POLITICO, she warned the world faced a “catastrophic” hunger crisis without a surge in funding. Her tenure was also marked by intense diplomatic pressure during the war in Gaza. In March 2024, she urged Israel to allow “consistent, sustained and safe access” for humanitarian convoys, telling POLITICO that blocked convoys, not lack of food, were driving the famine risk. Since last year, WFP has been battered by a deep financial crunch. Cuts from major Western donors — including its largest backer, the U.S. — have forced the agency to slash rations even as acute food insecurity affects more than 340 million people worldwide In October, McCain suffered a mild stroke and temporarily took leave, saying at the time she expected to make a full recovery. She said Thursday she would remain “an unwavering voice” in the fight against hunger after leaving office.

BRUSSELS — Aid access to Gaza has improved thanks to resumed fuel deliveries but is still below what was agreed between the EU and Israel, says an EU report seen by POLITICO. The humanitarian situation in Gaza “continues to remain very severe” says the report prepared by the EU’s External Action Service and the European Commission on the implementation of the EU-Israel deal reached last month to increase humanitarian aid entering Gaza. Since May 27, “at least 1,373 Palestinians have been killed while seeking food,” the report found. The four-page report also said that “significant obstructive factors continue to undermine humanitarian operations and aid delivery.” It covers the period from July 29 until Aug. 4 and was distributed on Tuesday evening to diplomats. The growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza is straining ties between the EU and Israel. “What we are seeing is a concrete population being targeted, killed and condemned to starve to death,” European Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook. “If it is not genocide, it looks very much like the definition used to express its meaning.” However, the EU report noted that there are some “notable positive new developments” under the deal, like the “resumption of fuel delivery, which has stopped for 130 days,” the reopening of Egyptian and Jordanian routes into Gaza and the reopening of the Zikim crossing point in the north of the territory — though “the volume of aid is still limited.” It noted that there an “upward trend in the number of daily trucks entering Gaza,” although “the numbers are still below” what had been agreed. Between the end of last month and the start of August an “average of 125,000 litres of fuel per day” entered Gaza. However, the EU and Israel had agreed to allow the entry of fuel tankers carrying up to 196,000 liters per day, said an EU diplomat. The current volume of fuel entering Gaza is now “enough to sustain critical life-saving operations but not sufficient to allow all humanitarian programmes to run,” said the report. The report is based on evidence and information collected from humanitarian partners, like the United Nations and the Red Cross, as well as from EU delegations, adding that there are discrepancies with numbers provided by Israel. It also complained that the Commission wasn’t in the position to verify information on the ground as Israel is not allowing access “neither at high-level (Director-General) nor at operational level.” In the period covered by report, the U.N. and the other EU partners reported that 463 trucks were offloaded at crossing points in Gaza, while Israel estimated 737 trucks. But Israel’s figures include also the operations of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a controversial food aid organization backed by the U.S. and Israel whose numbers are not part of the deal with the EU. Among the factors that still undermine the delivery of humanitarian aid is that the “security and safety in Gaza continue to be a major concern” while Israeli airstrikes still affect U.N. and NGO facilities and “notification mechanisms have not improved.” Activities in areas under the evacuation orders from the Israeli army, which cover 88 percent of Gaza’s territory, “are limited, given the increased likelihood of staff being targeted.”

The European Union and Israel have reached a deal to expand humanitarian aid entering Gaza, the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas announced Thursday. “This deal means more crossings open, aid and food trucks entering Gaza, repair of vital infrastructure and protection of aid workers. We count on Israel to implement every measure agreed,” Kallas said. The measures will be implemented in the coming days, making sure that aid is delivered directly to the local population and that there is no aid diverted to militant group Hamas, Commission spokesperson Anouar El Anouni said at a media briefing. The measures Israel and the EU agreed upon include an increase of daily trucks for food, fuel and other items entering Gaza, the opening of several other crossing points in both the northern and southern areas, the reopening of the Jordanian and Egyptian aid routes, as well as the distribution of food supplies through bakeries and public kitchens throughout the Gaza Strip. Israel blocked all food deliveries by international aid agencies to Gaza for 11 weeks — arguing that they were being seized and sold by Hamas militants — as it continued its military assault in the coastal enclave. After it relaxed its blockade of the enclave, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GFH) — a controversial food aid organization backed by the U.S. and Israel — began operations in the area. GFH has drawn criticism amid reports of Palestinian civilians being shot as they tried to access aid, with 170 NGOs recently urging its closure. The EU said GFH is “not part” of the new deal.