BERLIN — European leaders welcomed “significant progress” in talks on a potential peace deal on Monday after nearly four years of full-scale war in Ukraine, for the first time outlining how security guarantees could prevent Vladimir Putin from invading again.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave an upbeat assessment of a dramatic new offer from American officials to provide NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine. The proposals look “pretty good,” Zelenskyy said at the end of two days of talks with Donald Trump’s negotiators and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin.  But the Ukraine president cautioned that the plans were only a “first draft,” with major questions remaining unresolved. For example, there was still no deal on what should happen to contested territory in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, much of which is occupied by Russian troops. And there’s no indication that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will agree to any of it. Merz, however, welcomed what he called the “remarkable” legal and “material” security guarantees that American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, had proposed.  “For the first time since 2022, a ceasefire is conceivable,” Merz said at a press conference with Zelenskyy. “It is now entirely up to Russia whether a ceasefire can be achieved by Christmas.”  The emergence of an outline security guarantee marks a potentially critical step forward in the negotiations. Ukraine has consistently said it cannot consider any solution to the question of what happens to territories occupied by Russian troops until it receives a security package that would deter Putin from invading again.  Putin, meanwhile, has refused to countenance Ukraine joining NATO, and earlier this year Trump said American forces would not have a role in any peacekeeping mission.  However, recent days have seen a steady improvement in the mood among negotiators. “This is a truly far-reaching and substantial agreement, which we have not had before, namely that both Europe and the U.S. are jointly prepared — and President Zelenskyy has referred to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty — to give similar security guarantees to Ukraine,” Merz said. Article 5 is the cornerstone of the alliance’s collective defense: It states that an attack on one member will be treated as an attack on all. “In my view, this is a really big step forward. And, as I said, the American side has also committed itself politically and, in perspective, legally to do this,” Merz added. Zelenskyy also, for the first time, suggested a solution could be in sight. “Before we take any steps on the battlefield, we need to see very clearly what security guarantees are in place,” he said. “It is important that the U.S. is considering Article-5-like guarantees. There is progress there.” In a subsequent joint statement the leaders of Denmark, Finland, France, the U.K., Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Norway joined Merz in welcoming the “significant progress” in the talks. The statement was also signed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, president of the European Council, who joined the national leaders for a dinner discussion with Zelenskyy in Berlin.  Their statement also laid out more detail on what the new peace plan might include, suggesting that “the US” had “committed” alongside European leaders to guarantee the future security of Ukraine and to foster its economic recovery. This, the leaders’ statement said, would include commitments to support Ukraine’s army to maintain a “peacetime” strength of 800,000 to be able to “deter” and “defend.”  Peace would be enforced in part by a European-led “multinational force Ukraine” made up of contributions from willing nations and “supported by the U.S.” This force would secure Ukraine’s skies, support security at sea, and build up the Ukrainian armed forces, “including through operating in Ukraine.” The statement is not clear on exactly what role the U.S. would play in supporting this force.  Separately, the U.S. would be responsible for a mechanism to monitor the ceasefire and provide early warning of any future attack. There would also be a legally binding commitment to take measures to restore peace if Russia attacks again, potentially including “armed force, intelligence and logistical assistance.” Further points in the proposal include joint efforts to reconstruct Ukraine and invest in its future prosperity, and continuing Ukraine’s pathway toward joining the EU.  On the matter of ceding territory, the European leaders said it would be for Zelenskyy to decide —if necessary by consulting the Ukrainian people.  The developments represent significant movement after weeks of stalemate. But there were suggestions from the American side that their offer may be time-limited, as the White House seeks to push the warring sides toward a peace deal by Christmas.  “The basis of that agreement is basically to have really, really strong guarantees, Article 5-like,” a senior U.S. official said. “Those guarantees will not be on the table forever. Those guarantees are on the table right now if there’s a conclusion that’s reached in a good way.” Hans von der Burchard, Victor Jack, Nicholas Vinocur and Eli Stokols contributed reporting.  

BRUSSELS — EU leaders meeting this week will remain locked in talks until they find a solution to Ukraine’s funding crisis, Cyprus said, insisting the issue won’t be kicked to Jan. 1 when it takes over the EU’s legislative agenda. Cypriot Deputy EU Minister Marilena Raouna told POLITICO on Monday that leaders have “a critical decision to make at the upcoming European Council,” which begins Thursday. Discussions over how to ensure Kyiv does not run out of money by the middle of next year have been “challenging,” she went on, but “there is a readiness by all to stay in Brussels until we are able to have a decision on this issue of financing.” European officials have repeatedly warned Thursday’s negotiations could take hours, or even days, to produce a result and may run into the weekend despite pressures on leaders’ schedules. The alternative, officials say, is Ukraine running out of money — which will not be allowed to happen. The EU is working to agree on a plan to use frozen Russian assets to underwrite a €210 billion loan to support Kyiv’s state budget and help repair the damage done by Russia’s full-scale invasion. However, Belgium — which hosts the bulk of the funds — has been joined by Italy, Malta and Bulgaria in raising legal questions over the proposals, which are already opposed on principle by Kremlin-friendly countries Hungary and Slovakia. “A number of member states have said we need to ensure there is legal certainty; I think safeguards are being put in place in this regard. And that will pave the way, I hope, for a decision,” said Raouna. “I think we need to exhaust all possibilities … We also need to be aware of what message it would send if we don’t reach a decision.” Talks between ambassadors on the technical framework behind the move were canceled on Sunday and will run late into the night on Monday instead, ahead of a summit of leaders under the auspices of the European Council on Thursday. Four diplomats told POLITICO they remain convinced the plan is workable and no alternative exists given capitals’ opposition to borrowing the money directly. Despite that, there are growing concerns that failing to consider other options would mean major delays if the assets plan is rejected. “I think we are on the right path. I am cautiously optimistic that we will be able to deliver at the European Council,” Raouna said. Cyprus takes over the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from the beginning of next year, giving one of the smallest countries in the bloc an influential role overseeing diplomatic talks. Along with Ireland, it is one of two militarily neutral countries to take on the role in 2026.

KYIV — In another deep-strike attack against Russia, Ukraine blew up a Russian submarine docked in a secure naval base, Ukrainian counterintelligence agency Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Monday. The SBU said it critically damaged the Class 636.3 submarine “Varshavyanka” (NATO reporting name: Kilo) in its home base at the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. “Ukraine’s underwater drone Sub Sea Baby attacked a Russian submarine. The explosion critically damaged the submarine and effectively disabled it. The submarine was carrying four Kalibr cruise missile launchers, which Russia uses to strike at the territory of Ukraine,” the SBU’s press service said, providing video of the blast as evidence. POLITICO could not independently verify the video. The Russian ministry of defense so far has not issued any statements about the attack on Novorossiysk, but Russian military bloggers claim the damage was insignificant as the drone hit a nearby pier, nevertheless stating that such a close call attack is a wake-up call. The attack, if it was as destructive as the SBU claims, will be financially costly for the Russian military. “The cost of a Varshavyanka-class submarine is about $400 million. Given the international sanctions imposed, the construction of a similar submarine could currently cost up to $500 million,” the SBU’s press service said. It’s not known if any personnel were harmed. The attack on Novorossiysk has become the latest in Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign inside Russia against military and energy targets, now happening every day. Earlier today, the SBU hit Russia’s oil rigs in the Caspian Sea for the third time, days after Ukraine’s drones hit Russia’s oil refineries and several cargo ships of the Russian shadow fleet. “While diplomatic processes and negotiations are underway that could bring the end of the war closer, we must not forget that Russian strikes continue every day. [Vladimir] Putin is using the brutality of the strikes as leverage in negotiations,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement at the German-Ukrainian economic forum on Monday. “Our ability to recover from strikes, our ability to produce weapons and strike back, our ability to shoot down Russian missiles and drones — are our leverage in negotiations,” Zelenskyy added, urging partners to keep supporting Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian invasion.

BRUSSELS — The European Union faces a critical week as it seeks to shield Ukraine from a humiliating peace deal carved out by the U.S. and Russia while attempting to salvage an agreement to fund a multi-billion euro loan to keep Kyiv afloat. After a series of stinging attacks from Washington ― including Donald Trump telling POLITICO that European leaders are “weak” ― the coming days will be a real test of their mettle. On Monday leaders will attempt to build bridges and use their powers of persuasion over the peace agreement when they meet Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. officials in Berlin. At the same time in Brussels, EU foreign ministers and diplomats will battle to win over a growing number of European governments that oppose the loan plan. By Thursday, when all 27 leaders gather in the Belgian capital for what promises to be one of the most pivotal summits in years, they’ll hope to have more clarity on whether the intense diplomacy has paid off. With Trump’s stinging put-downs ― Europe’s leaders “talk, but they don’t produce” ― and NATO chief Mark Rutte’s stark warnings about the the threat from Russia ringing in their ears, they’re taking nothing for granted. “We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way,” Rutte said last week. “Russia has brought war back to Europe and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured.” Little wonder then that European officials are casting the next few days as existential. The latest shot of 11th-hour diplomacy will see the leaders of the U.K., Germany and possibly France, potentially with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and his special envoy Steve Witkoff, meeting with Zelenskyy in Berlin. As if to underscore the significance of the meeting, “numerous European heads of state and government, as well as the leaders of the EU and NATO, will join the talks” after the initial discussion, said Stefan Kornelius, spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. French President Emmanuel Macron hasn’t confirmed his attendance but spoke to Zelenskyy by telephone on Sunday. The discussion will represent Europe’s attempt to influence the final settlement, weeks after a 28-point peace plan drafted by Witkoff  — reportedly with the aid of several Kremlin officials — provoked a furious backlash in both Kyiv and European capitals. They’ve since scrambled to put together an alternative. Further European disunity this week would send a “disastrous signal to Ukraine,” said one EU official. That outcome wouldn’t just be a hammer blow to the war-struck nation, the official added: “It’s also fair to say that Europe will then fail as well.” EMPTYING TERRITORIES This time the focus will be on a 20-point amendment to the plan drafted by Kyiv and its European allies and submitted to Washington for review last week. The contents remain unclear, and nothing is decided, but the fate of the Ukrainian territories under Russian occupation is particularly thorny. Trump has pitched emptying out the territories of Ukrainian and Russian troops and establishing a demilitarized “free economic zone” where U.S. business interests could operate. Ukraine has rejected that proposal, according to a French official, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations. The U.S. has insisted on territorial concessions despite fierce European objections, the official added, creating friction with the Trump administration. Leaders will attempt to build bridges and use their powers of persuasion over the peace agreement when they meet Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. officials in Berlin. | Antonio Masiello/Getty Images Europe’s leaders insist there can be no progress on territory before Ukraine is offered security guarantees. In a sign of movement toward some kind of deal, Zelenskyy said over the weekend he was willing to “compromise” and not demand NATO membership for Ukraine. Instead, the country should be afforded an ad-hoc collective defense arrangement, he told journalists in a WhatsApp conversation. “The bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States … and the security guarantees from our European colleagues for us, as well as from other countries such as Canada and Japan ― these security guarantees for us provide an opportunity to prevent another outbreak of Russian aggression,” he said. REPEATED SETBACKS Europe will have further opportunities to discuss the way forward after Monday. EU affairs ministers will continue on Tuesday in Brussels to thrash out plans for Thursday’s summit. In between, Wednesday will see the leaders of Europe’s “Eastern flank” ― with countries including the Baltics and Poland represented ― huddle in Helsinki. The EU has been trying for months to convince Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to consent to a plan to use the cash value of the €185 billion in Russian state assets held in Brussels-based depository Euroclear to fund and arm Ukraine. (The remainder of the total €210 billion financial package would include €25 billion in frozen Russian assets held across the bloc.) In a sign the chances of a deal at Thursday’s summit are worsening rather than improving, Italy — the EU’s third-largest country — sided with Belgium’s demands to look for alternative options to finance Ukraine in a letter on Friday that was also signed by Malta and Bulgaria. Czechia’s new Prime Minister Andrej Babiš also rejected the plan on Sunday. “The more such cases we have the more likely it is that we will have to find other solutions,” an EU diplomat said. The five countries — even if joined by pro-Kremlin Hungary and Slovakia — would not be able to build a blocking minority, but their public criticism erodes the Commission’s hopes of striking a political deal this week. A meeting of EU ambassadors originally planned for Sunday evening was postponed until Monday. While the last-minute diplomatic effort has left many concerned the money might not be approved before the end of the year, with Ukraine in desperate need of the cash, three diplomats insisted they were sticking to the plan and that no alternatives were yet being considered. Belgium is engaging constructively with the draft measures, actively making suggestions and changes in the document to be considered when ambassadors meet on Monday, one of the diplomats and an EU official said. The decision on the Russian assets is “a decision on the future of Europe and will determine whether the EU is still a relevant actor,” a German official said. “There is no option B.” Bjarke Smith-Meyer, Nick Vinocur, Victor Jack and Zoya Sheftalovich in Brussels, Veronika Melkozerova in Kyiv, Clea Caulcutt and Laura Kayali in Paris and Nette Nöstlinger in Berlin contributed to this report.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. envoys arrived in Berlin on Sunday for another round of peace talks, with Kyiv emphasizing that strong security guarantees are an essential component of any prospective deal to end the war. Zelenskyy said there will be “meetings in Berlin today and tomorrow” to discuss the proposals on the table to find an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Zelenskyy said he will meet personally with U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in Berlin. Ukrainian, U.S. and European officials will hold a series of meetings in Berlin, Zelenskyy said. But the exact timing and scope of the talks haven’t been disclosed. Delegations will be meeting on Sunday, according to media reports, followed by a summit on Monday that will include U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “The summit in Berlin is important: we are meeting with both the Americans and the Europeans,” Zelenskyy told journalists in a WhatsApp group chat on Sunday, according to a transcript of his remarks. “It is important for us. And believe me, we have done a lot to ensure that these parties all meet together.” Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Ukraine to receive firm guarantees from the United States and European allies that would be similar to those offered to NATO members, according to the transcript of the group chat. “These security guarantees are an opportunity to prevent another wave of Russian aggression,” the Ukrainian leader said. “And this is already a compromise on our part.” Zelenskyy emphasized that the security guarantees would need to be legally binding and supported by the U.S. Congress. He said he expected an update from his team following a meeting between Ukrainian and U.S. military officials in Stuttgart. “Most importantly, I will be meeting with envoys of President Trump, and there will also be meetings with our European partners, with many leaders, concerning the foundation of peace — a political agreement to end the war,” Zelenskyy said in an address late Saturday. Merz this week said Germany is inviting Washington to join a meeting in Berlin to discuss Ukraine. But whether Washington joins will “very much depend” on progress in negotiations “over the weekend” on the underlying documents, he added. The chancellor’s spokesperson, Stefan Kornelius, said separately that “numerous European heads of state and government, as well as the leaders of the EU and NATO, will join the talks,” which will follow the meeting of the German, French and U.K. leaders in Berlin. The talks in Berlin are to discuss the latest version of a 20-point peace plan brokered by the U.S. just days after Ukraine sent its revised version to Washington. The plan proposes a demilitarized “free economic zone” in the Donbas region where American business interests could operate. A major sticking point in the negotiations is the fate of territory in eastern Ukraine, which Kyiv refuses to cede after Moscow’s occupation. European leaders are racing to assert their relevance in the process amid concerns that Washington’s proposals lean toward Russia and put demands on Ukraine that Zelenskyy will not be able to accept. 

Ukraine is willing to drop demands for NATO accession should the U.S. and Europe offer sufficient security guarantees in ongoing talks on a proposed peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was reported to say on Sunday. “We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5-like guarantees … as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others,” Zelenskyy told journalists in a group chat, according to a report by the Financial Times. Ukraine and European leaders are working on a U.S.-drafted 20-point peace plan that includes territorial concessions to Russia. Zelenskyy has said that he hasn’t heard back from the White House on his proposed revisions to the plan. Zelenskyy’s comments come while German, British and French officials on Sunday are reportedly discussing the proposals to end the Ukraine war, ahead of a meeting on Monday that’s to include the leaders of those countries. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to meet with Zelenskyy, who will be received by Merz in Berlin on Monday.

At least 12 people are dead after two gunmen opened fire at Sydney’s famed Bondi Beach in an attack authorities said targeted the Jewish community during a major holiday celebration. One of the shooters is among the dead while the second is in a critical condition, local police said in a statement. More people have been injured, among them two police officers, authorities said. Police are investigating whether any other assailants were involved. “This attack was designed to target Sydney’s Jewish community, on the first day of Hanukkah,” said Chris Minns, the premier of the state of New South Wales. “What should have been a night of peace and joy celebrated in that community with families and supporters, has been shattered by this horrifying evil attack.” The attack occurred as hundreds of members of Sydney’s Jewish community gathered in Bondi Beach for the annual Hanukkah celebration, among the biggest events of the local Jewish calendar. The event, attended by many families, features the lighting of the menorah, a petting zoo, a children’s climbing wall and other activities. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said his “thoughts are with every person affected.” Israel’s President Isaac Herzog called the attack terrorism: “Our hearts go out to our Jewish sisters and brothers in Sydney who have been attacked by vile terrorists as they went to light the first candle of Chanukah.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent “heartfelt condolences” and said “Europe stands with Australia and Jewish communities everywhere,” in a statement. “This appalling act of violence against the Jewish community must be unequivocally condemned,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat. The incident is Australia’s worst mass shooting in decades, after the nation’s gun laws were tightened in response to a 1996 massacre in the state of Tasmania.

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler in a speech Saturday evening, warning that the Kremlin leader’s ambitions won’t stop with Ukraine. “Just as the Sudetenland was not enough in 1938, Putin will not stop,” Merz said, referring to a part of Czechoslovakia that the Allies ceded to the Nazi leader with an agreement. Hitler continued his expansion into Europe after that. “If Ukraine falls, he won’t stop there,” Merz said, referring to Putin. German, British and French officials are set to meet in Berlin this weekend to discuss proposals to end the war in Ukraine. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is also expected to meet with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The talks are in preparation for a planned summit of leaders including Merz, Britain’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Zelenskyy on Monday over stopping Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. A U.S.-backed 20-point peace plan is in the works, which includes territorial concessions on Ukraine’s part. Under one proposal being discussed, the Donbas region would be made into a free-trade zone were American companies can freely operate. Merz was speaking at a party conference of the Christian Social Union of Bavaria, which is closely aligned with his own party, the Christian Democrats.

BRUSSELS — Denmark is holding the line and pressing ahead with plans to schedule a crucial vote of EU ambassadors on the EU-Mercosur trade deal next week, in a tug-of-war splitting countries across the bloc. “In the planning of the Danish presidency, the intention is to have the vote on the Mercosur agreement next week to enable the Commission President to sign the agreement in Brazil on Dec. 20,” an official with the Danish presidency of the Council of the EU told POLITICO. This is the first official confirmation from Copenhagen that it will go ahead with scheduling the vote over the deal with the Latin American countries in the coming days, despite warnings from France, Poland and Italy that the texts as they stand would not garner their support.  This risks leaving the Danish presidency of the Council short of the supermajority needed to get the deal over the line. Under EU rules, this would require the support of a “qualified” majority of EU member countries — meaning 15 of the bloc’s 27 members representing 65 percent of its population. The outcome of the vote will determine whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen can fly, as is now planned, to Brazil on Dec. 20 for a signing ceremony with her Mercosur counterparts. France however has been playing for time in an effort to delay its approval of the accord, which has been more than 25 years in the making — a strategy several diplomats warn could ultimately kill the trade deal.  They cite fears that further stalling could embolden opposition in the European Parliament or complicate the next steps when Paraguay, which is more skeptical of the agreement, takes over the presidency of the Mercosur bloc. “If we can’t agree on Mercosur, we don’t need to talk about European sovereignty anymore. We will make ourselves geopolitically irrelevant,” said a senior EU diplomat. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, are expected to descend on Brussels on Thursday for a high-stakes EU summit. While not formally on the agenda, the trade deal with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay is expected to loom large. A farmers demonstration is also expected in Brussels on the same day.  Countries backing the deal, including Germany and Sweden, argue that France has already been accommodated, pointing to proposed additional safeguards designed to protect European farmers in the event of a surge in Latin American beef or poultry imports. The instrument, which still requires validation by EU institutions, was a proposal from the Commission to placate Poland and France, whose influential farming constituencies worry they would be undercut by Latin American beef or poultry.  The texts submitted for the upcoming vote were published last week and include a temporary strengthened safeguard, committing to closely monitor market disruptions — one of the key conditions for Paris to back the deal.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff plans to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Germany this weekend to discuss a plan to end the war with Russia, according to multiple media reports. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also are expected to take part in the meeting, according to the reports. The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the planned meeting in Berlin. U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will also attend the Berlin meeting with Zelenskyy and the European leaders, Reuters reported. The meeting is to discuss the latest version of a 20-point peace plan brokered by the U.S. just days after Ukraine handed over its revised version to Washington, according to the reports. The plan proposes a demilitarized “free economic zone” in the Donbas region where American business interests could operate. A major sticking point in the negotiations is the fate of territory in eastern Ukraine, which Kyiv refuses to cede after Moscow’s occupation.