US pressures global energy body to drop net zero modeling

PARIS — The United States is calling on the world’s most influential energy organization to abandon net zero emissions scenario modeling that has informed much of the global green transition, arguing the targets are unrealistic.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the call to other energy ministers at a closed-door ministerial meeting of the International Energy Agency in Paris on Wednesday, two people who were part of the discussions told POLITICO.

The comments met with a muted response from other ministers, the people said.

It comes just a day after Wright publicly threatened to quit the organization unless it abandoned its focus on the energy transition— a call that several countries rejected, including the U.K., Austria and France.

The International Energy Agency is a key venue for inter-governmental cooperation around climate and energy policy but has drawn criticism from the U.S. for its increasing advocacy for the green transition. Wright on Tuesday warned the U.S. would quit the IEA outright if it didn’t abandon “leftist fantasies.”

At the closed-door meeting Wednesday, Wright said the agency should stop basing its modeling on assumptions that it’s possible to cut emissions to zero, arguing such targets will never be met, according to four people present.

Doing away with those baseline assumptions would be a significant shift for the IEA, which has made them central to forecasts that have in turn formed the basis of global political decision-making around the green transition and underpinned billions in green energy investments.

Officials familiar with the discussions said Wright’s comments were more diplomatic than his public rhetoric, casting them as an attempt to rationalize the more hardline, anti-renewables stance of U.S. President Donald Trump. Unlike Trump, Wright acknowledges the scientific basis of global warming.

One said that Wright didn’t specifically mention renewables — a key source of energy in much of Europe — and instead focused on a broader criticism of the emissions target that other members might find reasonable.

“He’s being diplomatic, saying it’s a fantastic organization,” said the official, granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks. “He very smartly divided the political from the organizational, saying, ‘Let’s leave politics out of this, let’s focus on the real world [and] stop wasting our resources on scenarios that are zero percent likely.”

Europe shrugs

A steady line of European energy ministers pushed back against Wright’s pressure on Wednesday, dismissing his calls to abandon the phase-out of fossil fuels and insisting they would continue building renewables.

Austria’s energy secretary told POLITICO Europe would not be “blackmailed” by the U.S. on clean energy policy.

“We should not [allow ourselves to be] blackmailed by him,” Austrian State Secretary for Energy Elisabeth Zehetner said in an interview with POLITICO on the sidelines of a summit of IEA member countries. 

Renewables are key for growth and affordability, Zehetner argued, adding that the U.S. focus on fossil fuels at the expense of green energy went against its own interests. 

“I can’t understand the argument of the U.S. — they have huge potential in renewable energy, so for one who wants to make a lot of economic deals, they reject a lot of economic chances,” she said. “Maybe it’s an ideological thing.” 

U.K. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said, “For the vast majority of countries, the clean energy transition is unstoppable.” He said the U.S. membership of the IEA was Washington’s choice, but added: “The U.S. needs to make its own decisions about whether it stays in the IEA or not. I hope they stay. But that’s their call.”

EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen also defended the roll-out of renewables. “The clean energy transition is not some distant scenario. It’s the reality. Not only for Europe, but around the globe. The deployment of clean energy and technologies is accelerating because it makes clear economic sense — for growth, resilience, and long-term prosperity,” he said in a written statement Wednesday.

Canada also joined in. “The United States is free to have a perspective,” Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson told POLITICO. “What makes the world interesting is we have a multilateral world … I believe what the IEA is doing today is showing multiple perspectives. They show current trends.”

Talks will continue on Thursday, with no outcome expected till the afternoon.