The Trump administration wants to work with traditional allies to secure new supplies of critical minerals. But months of aggression toward allies, culminating with since-aborted threats to seize Greenland, have left many cool to the overtures. While the State Department has drawn a lengthy list of participating countries for its first Critical Minerals Ministerial scheduled for Wednesday, a number of those attending are hesitant to commit to partnering with the U.S. in creating a supply chain that bypasses China’s current chokehold on those materials, according to five Washington-based diplomats of countries invited to or attending the event. State Department cables obtained by POLITICO also show wariness among some countries about signing onto a framework agreement pledging joint cooperation in sourcing and processing critical minerals. Representatives from more than 50 countries are expected to attend the meeting, according to the State Department — all gathered to discuss the creation of tech supply chains that can rival Beijing’s. But the meeting comes just two weeks since President Donald Trump took to the stage at Davos to call on fellow NATO member Denmark to allow a U.S. takeover of Greenland, and that isn’t sitting well. “We all need access to critical minerals, but the furor over Greenland is going to be the elephant in the room,” said a European diplomat. In the immediate run-up to the event there’s “not a great deal of interest from the European side,” the person added. The individual and others were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic relationships. Their concerns underscore how international dismay at the Trump administration’s foreign policy and trade actions may kneecap its other global priorities. The Trump administration had had some success over the past two months rallying countries to support U.S. efforts to create secure supply chains for critical minerals, including a major multilateral agreement called the Pax Silica Declaration. Now those gains could be at risk. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wants foreign countries to partner with the U.S. in creating a supply chain for the 60 minerals (including rare earths) that the U.S. Geological Survey deems “vital to the U.S. economy and national security that face potential risks from disrupted supply chains.” They include antimony, used to produce munitions; samarium, which goes into aircraft engines; and germanium, which is essential to fiber-optics. The administration also launched a $12 billion joint public-private sector “strategic critical minerals stockpile” for U.S. manufacturers, a White House official said Monday. Trump has backed away from his threats of possibly deploying the U.S. military to seize Greenland from Denmark. But at Davos he demanded “immediate negotiations” with Copenhagen to transfer Greenland’s sovereignty to the U.S. That makes some EU officials leery of administration initiatives that require cooperation and trust. “We are all very wary,” said a second European diplomat. Rubio’s critical minerals framework “will not be an easy sell until there is final clarity on Greenland.” Trump compounded the damage to relations with NATO countries on Jan. 22 when he accused member country troops that deployed to support U.S. forces in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021 of having shirked combat duty. “The White House really messed up with Greenland and Davos,” a third European diplomat said. “They may have underestimated how much that would have an impact.” The Trump administration needs the critical minerals deals to go through. The U.S. has been scrambling to find alternative supply lines for a group of minerals called rare earths since Beijing temporarily cut the U.S. off from its supply last year. China — which has a near-monopoly on rare earths — relented in the trade truce that Trump brokered with China’s leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in October. The administration is betting that foreign government officials that attend Wednesday’s event also want alternative sources to those materials. “The United States and the countries attending recognize that reliable supply chains are indispensable to our mutual economic and national security and that we must work together to address these issues in this vital sector,” the State Department statement said in a statement. The administration has been expressing confidence that it will secure critical minerals partnerships with the countries attending the ministerial, despite their concerns over Trump’s bellicose policy. “There is a commonality here around countering China,” Ruth Perry, the State Department’s acting principal deputy assistant secretary for ocean, fisheries and polar affairs, said at an industry event on offshore critical minerals in Washington last week. “Many of these countries understand the urgency.” Speaking at a White House event Monday, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum indicated that 11 nations would sign on to a critical minerals framework with the United States this week and another 20 are considering doing so. Greenland has rich deposits of rare earths and other minerals. But Denmark isn’t sending any representatives to the ministerial, according to the person familiar with the event’s planning. Trump said last month that a framework agreement he struck with NATO over Greenland’s future included U.S. access to the island’s minerals. Greenland’s harsh climate and lack of infrastructure in its interior makes the extraction of those materials highly challenging. Concern about the longer term economic and geostrategic risks of turning away from Washington in favor of closer ties with Beijing — despite the Trump administration’s unpredictability — may work in Rubio’s favor on Wednesday. “We still want to work on issues where our viewpoints align,” an Asian diplomat said. “Critical minerals, energy and defense are some areas where there is hope for positive movement.” State Department cables obtained by POLITICO show the administration is leaning on ministerial participants to sign on to a nonbinding framework agreement to ensure U.S. access to critical minerals. The framework establishes standards for government and private investment in areas including mining, processing and recycling, along with price guarantees to protect producers from competitors’ unfair trade policies. The basic template of the agreement being shared with other countries mirrors language in frameworks sealed with Australia and Japan and memorandums of understanding inked with Thailand and Malaysia last year. Enthusiasm for the framework varies. The Philippine and Polish governments have both agreed to the framework text, according to cables from Manila on Jan. 22 and Warsaw on Jan. 26. Romania is interested but “proposed edits to the draft MOU framework,” a cable dated Jan. 16 said. As of Jan. 22 India was noncommittal, telling U.S. diplomats that New Delhi “could be interested in exploring a memorandum of understanding in the future.” European Union members Finland and Germany both expressed reluctance to sign on without clarity on how the framework aligns with wider EU trade policies. A cable dated Jan. 15 said Finland “prefers to observe progress in the EU-U.S. discussions before engaging in substantive bilateral critical mineral framework negotiations.” Berlin also has concerns that the initiative may reap “potential retaliation from China,” according to a cable dated Jan. 16. Trump’s threats over the past two weeks to impose 100 percent tariffs on Canada for cutting a trade deal with China and 25 percent tariffs on South Korea for allegedly slow-walking legislative approval of its U.S. trade agreement are also denting enthusiasm for the U.S. critical minerals initiative. Those levies “have introduced some uncertainty, which naturally leads countries to proceed pragmatically and keep their options open,” a second Asian diplomat said. There are also doubts whether Trump will give the initiative the long-term backing it will require for success. “There’s a sense that this could end up being a TACO too,” a Latin American diplomat said, using shorthand for Trump’s tendency to make big threats or announcements that ultimately fizzle. Analysts, too, argue it’s unlikely the administration will be able to secure any deals amid the fallout from Davos and Trump’s tariff barrages. “We’re very skeptical on the interest and aptitude and trust in trade counterparties right now,” said John Miller, an energy analyst at TD Cowen who tracks critical minerals. “A lot of trading partners are very much in a wait-and-see perspective at this point saying, ‘Where’s Trump really going to go with this?’” And more unpredictability or hostility by the Trump administration toward longtime allies could push them to pursue critical mineral sourcing arrangements that exclude Washington. “The alternative is that these other countries will go the Mark Carney route of the middle powers, cooperating among themselves quietly, not necessarily going out there and saying, ‘Hey, we’re cutting out the U.S.,’ but that these things just start to crop up,” said Jonathan Czin, a former China analyst at the CIA now at the Brookings Institution. “Which will make it more challenging and allow Beijing to play divide and conquer over the long term.” Felicia Schwartz contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — The EU and U.K. must overcome historic gripes and “reset” their relationship to be able to work together in an increasingly uncertain world, the bloc’s top parliamentarian said. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola used an address to the Spanish senate on Tuesday to call for closer ties with the U.K. as London steps up efforts to secure smoother access to European markets and funding projects, after the country voted to leave the bloc in 2016. “Ten years on from Brexit … and in a world that has changed so profoundly, Europe and the U.K. need a new way of working together on trade, customs, research, mobility and on security and defense,” Metsola said. “Today it is time to exorcize the ghosts of the past.” Metsola called for a “reset” in the partnership between Britain and the EU as part of a policy of “realistic pragmatism anchored in values that will see all of us move forward together.” Her speech comes after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he intended to try and ensure his country’s defense industries can benefit from the EU’s flagship SAFE scheme — a €150 billion funding program designed to boost procurement of military hardware. That push has been far from smooth, with a meeting of EU governments on Monday night failing to sign off U.K. access to SAFE, despite France — which has consistently opposed non-EU countries taking part — supporting the British inclusion. Starmer has also signaled in recent days that he is seeking closer integration with the EU’s single market. Brussels has so far been reluctant to reopen the terms of the U.K.’s relations with the bloc just six years after it exited. While those decisions lie with the remaining 27 EU member countries, rather than the Parliament, Metsola’s intervention marks a shift in tone that could bolster the British case for closer relations. In the context of increasingly tense relations with the U.S., capitals are depending on cooperation with British intelligence and military capabilities and in key industries. Europe must take “the next steps towards a stronger European defense, boosting our capabilities and cooperation, and working closely with our NATO allies so that Europe can better protect its people,” Metsola said.

BRUSSELS — The European Union is pressing ahead with talks to grant United States border authorities unprecedented access to Europeans’ data, despite growing concerns about American surveillance. The European Commission is brokering a deal to exchange information about travelers, including fingerprints and law enforcement records, so the U.S. can determine if they “pose a risk to public security or public order,” according to official documents. Commission officials flew to Washington last week for the first round of negotiations, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Trump administration’s request for deeper access comes after the U.S. border agency in December proposed reviewing five years of social media history. Talks are happening as the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) service is under heavy scrutiny for its use of surveillance technology against protesters in cities such as Minneapolis. The negotiations should be “put on hold” until the security and privacy of citizens in the EU and U.S. can be guaranteed, liberal European Parliament member Raquel García Hermida-van der Walle said in an interview. Romain Lanneau, a legal researcher with surveillance watchdog Statewatch, said police databases in Europe could contain information on anyone from protesters to journalists who might be considered a “threat,” and that — under the deal being discussed — this information would be at the fingertips of U.S. border authorities who could refuse those people entry to the United States or even detain them. European regulators are “very cautiously looking at what’s happening in the United States,” Wojciech Wiewiórowski, the EU’s in-house data protection supervisor, told POLITICO. Europe “has to be careful” about how it allows the data of Europeans to flow to the U.S., he said.  Hermida-van der Walle in January co-signed a letter by six prominent lawmakers calling on the Commission to stand down given the “current geopolitical context,” despite Washington’s admonition that failure to reach a deal will mean Europeans lose access to its visa waiver program. UNPRECEDENTED ACCESS The U.S. is seeking access to information including biometric data such as fingerprints that is stored on national databases in European countries, according to an explanatory note sent to national experts. The data would be used to “address irregular migration and to prevent, detect, and combat serious crime and terrorist offences,” the note said. In an earlier opinion on the deal, the European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) — a watchdog that advises the Commission on privacy policies — noted the deal would be the first of its kind to enable “large-scale sharing of personal data … for the purpose of border and immigration control” with a non-EU country. The Commission would negotiate a framework deal that would serve as a template for bilateral agreements called Enhanced Border Security Partnerships (EBSPs), which national governments agree with Washington. EU countries in December signed off on the Commission’s request to start talks with the U.S. Washington is pressuring its EU counterparts by imposing a deadline for the bilateral deals to be agreed by the end of 2026. If countries fail to reach a deal with the U.S. they risk being cut from the latter’s visa waiver program. The U.S has made it mandatory for all countries that are part of the visa waiver program to have an EBSP in place. “The pressure which the United States is extorting on our member states, the threats that if you don’t agree with this we will cancel your access to the visa waiver program, that is an element of blackmail that we cannot let go,” Hermida-van der Walle said. The EDPS watchdog has cautioned that the scope of data sharing should be as narrow as possible, with clear justifications for every query; transparency around how the data is used; and judicial redress available in the U.S. for any person. Commission spokesperson Markus Lammert emphasised at a recent press briefing that the framework being negotiated will involve “clear and robust safeguards on data protection,” and will ensure “a non-systematic nature of the information exchange and that the exchange is limited to what is strictly necessary to achieve the objectives of this cooperation.”  US PRIVACY UNDER PRESSURE Access to the data is the latest issue putting pressure on a troubled relationship between the U.S. and the EU on data privacy. Since whistleblower Edward Snowden in 2013 revealed U.S. mass surveillance practices affecting Europeans, the EU has tightened controls on how Washington handles Europeans’ data. Since the return of Donald Trump as president last year, officials and rights groups have deplored a move by the U.S. administration to gut a key privacy watchdog tasked with overseeing privacy safeguards in place to protect Europeans. The Trump administration has also been ramping up mass surveillance of citizens by federal agencies like ICE, including through contracts with Israeli spyware company Paragon, surveillance giant Palantir and other firms. Capgemini, a prominent French IT firm, on Sunday said it was selling off its American activities after it faced political backlash from the French government that its software was being used by ICE authorities. Civil rights groups, lawmakers and other watchdogs fear the new EU-U.S. data sharing deals would add to backsliding on privacy rights.    “The current initiatives are being presented as toward counter-terrorism, but a lot of them are actually adopted for the chilling effect [on political activism],” Statewatch’s Lanneau said. Hermida-van der Walle, the liberal lawmaker, warned: “If people have to go to the United States, if it’s not a choice but something that they have do, there is a risk of self-censoring.”  “This comes from an administration who claims to be the biggest defender of free speech. What they’re doing with their actions is curtailing the possibility of people to express themselves freely, because otherwise they might not get access into the country,” she said.

LONDON — Keir Starmer signaled that the U.K. is ready to try again to forge closer defense ties with the European Union, after talks on British access to the SAFE loan program collapsed last year.  Speaking on a visit to China, the prime minister said he was hoping to make “some progress” on spending, capability and co-operation between European countries and Britain, whether through Security Action for Europe (SAFE) or other initiatives. “I have made the argument that that should require us to look at schemes like SAFE and others to see whether there is a way in which we can work more closely together,” he told reporters traveling with him to Beijing.  Negotiations for Britain to take part in the EU’s loan initiative for defense procurement failed in November after a dispute about how much the U.K. would have to pay. The failure to reach a deal has been a source of frustration to Labour figures in the U.K. and European allies who want to show the U.K. can achieve closer alignment with the bloc after Brexit. The U.K. can, for now,  access SAFE as a third country, but is not entitled to fuller participation as was originally envisaged. EU ambassador to Britain Pedro Serrano and British officials have both previously raised expectations that the U.K. could reach an agreement to be included in another round of SAFE, but there is not currently one under consideration.  A European Commission spokesperson said: “We will not speculate on a possible second SAFE fund at this stage.” Another avenue for closer cooperation could center on the EU’s €90 billion loan for Ukraine, which the Netherlands and many other countries would like to see the U.K. join. London could also be asked to pay a fee to join the loan. France, with the support of other countries, last week suggested that third-party countries that take part should contribute. They made the argument that since EU member countries pay interest on the loan it would be unfair if non-EU countries don’t pay anything, according to three EU diplomats.  However, British officials said this idea was not under active discussion. A U.K government spokesperson said: “We do not comment on internal EU processes,” pointing out that the country has so far committed a total of £21.8 billion in support for Ukraine through military and fiscal assistance. European Commissioners Maros Šefčovič and Valdis Dombrovskis are visiting London Monday for a series of meetings with British ministers, ahead of a planned second EU-U.K. summit later this year. Their talks this week are expected to focus on trade. As he left China, Starmer told reporters that he wanted to “get closer” to the EU then he has currently set out, not only on defense and security but also energy, emissions and trade. Referring to a second annual U.K.-EU summit planned later this spring, Starmer added: “We will not only follow up on the 10 strands that we set out at last year’s summit, we’ll also want to go closer with an iterative process.” Jacopo Barigazzi and Jon Stone contributed to this report.

The Netherlands’ incoming government wants to push Europe toward a tighter intelligence-sharing club — including what it calls a potential “European equivalent” of the Five Eyes alliance — as part of a broader overhaul of its security services. The new coalition argues, in its governing plans published Friday, that rising threats require faster and more proactive intelligence agencies while preserving the country’s tradition of operating under strict rule-of-law safeguards. The proposals include boosting funding and digital infrastructure for the civilian intelligence agency (AIVD) and military intelligence service (MIVD), and strengthening the role of the national counterterrorism coordinator. At the European level, The Hague says it wants to intensify cooperation with a core group of like-minded countries, explicitly floating a continent-wide version of the “Five Eyes” intelligence partnership (which is made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S.). In October, the heads of the two Dutch agencies announced they would stop sharing certain information with their U.S. counterparts, citing political interference and human rights concerns. Instead they would look at increasing cooperation with other European services, like the U.K., Poland, France, Germany and the Nordic countries. Domestically, the government plans to fast-track a revamped Intelligence and Security Services Act, rewriting the law to focus on threats rather than specific investigative tools and making it “technology-neutral” so agencies are not outpaced by innovation. Supervisory bodies would be merged to provide streamlined, but legally robust, oversight. The agenda also calls for expanding the operational research capacity of Dutch intelligence services to help build Europe’s “strategic autonomy,” while deepening ties with tech firms and recruiting top technical talent.

SHANGHAI — As Keir Starmer arrived for the first visit by a British prime minister to China for eight years, he stood next to a TV game show-style wheel of fortune. The arrow pointed at “rise high,” next to “get rich immediately” and “everything will go smoothly.” Not one option on the wheel was negative. Sadly for the U.K. prime minister, reality does not match the wheel — but he gave it a good go. After an almost decade-long British chill toward China, Starmer reveled in three hours of talks and lunch with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, where he called for a “more sophisticated” relationship and won effusive praise in return. Britain boasted it had secured visa-free travel for British citizens to China for up to 30 days and a cut in Chinese tariffs on Scotch whisky. Xi even said the warming would help “world peace.” His wins so far (many details of which remain vague) are only a tiny sliver of the range of opportunities he claimed Chinese engagement could bring — and do not even touch on the controversies, given Beijing’s record on aggressive trade practices, human rights, espionage, cyber sabotage and transnational repression. But the vibes on the ground are clear — Starmer is loving it, and wants to go much further. POLITICO picks out five takeaways from following the entourage. 1) THERE’S NO TURNING BACK NOW Britain is now rolling inevitably toward greater engagement in a way that will be hard to reverse. Labour’s warming to China has been in train since the party was in opposition, inspired by the U.S. Democrats and Australian Labor, and the lead-up to this meeting took more than a year. No. 10 has bought into China’s reliance on protocol and iterative engagement. Xi is said to have been significantly warmer toward Starmer this week (their second meeting) than the first time they met at the G20 in Rome. Officials say it takes a long time to warm him up. There is no doubt China’s readout of the meeting was deliberately friendlier to Labour than the Conservatives. One person on the last leader-level visit to China, by Conservative PM Theresa May in 2018, recalled that the meetings were “intellectually grueling” because Xi used consecutive translation, speaking for long periods before May could reply. This time officials say he used simultaneous translation. It will not end here — because Starmer can’t afford for it to. Many of the dozen or so deals announced this week are only commitments to investigate options for future cooperation, so Britain will need to now push them into reality, with an array of dialogues planned in the future along with a visit by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper. As Business Secretary Peter Kyle told a Thursday night reception at the British Embassy: “This trip is just the start.” 2) BRITAIN’S STILL ON THE EASY WINS Deals on whisky tariffs and visa-free travel were top of the No. 10 list but — as standalone wins without national security implications — they were the lowest-hanging fruit. The two sides agreed to explore whether to enter negotiations towards a bilateral services agreement, which would make it easier for lawyers and accountants to use their professional qualifications across the two countries. In return, investment decisions in China were announced by firms including AstraZeneca and Octopus Energy. But many of the other deals are only the start of a dialogue. One U.K. official called them “jam tomorrow deals.” And Luke de Pulford, of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China campaign group, argued that despite Britain having a slight trade surplus in services “it’s tiny compared to the whole.” He added: “This trip to China seems to be based upon the notion that China is part of the solution to our economic woes. It’s not rooted in any evidence. China hasn’t done foreign direct investment in any serious way since 2017. It’s dropped off a cliff.” Then there are areas — particularly wind farms — where officials are more edgy and which weren’t discussed by Starmer and Xi. One industry figure dismissed concerns that China could install “kill switches” in key infrastructure — shutting down a wind turbine would be the equivalent of a windless day — but concerns are real. A second U.K. official said Britain had effectively categorized areas of the economy into three buckets — “slam dunks” to engage with China, “slam dunks” to block China, and everything in between. “We’ve been really clear [with China] about which sectors are accessible,” they said, which had helped smooth the path. Then there are the litany of non-trade areas where China will be reluctant to engage: being challenged on Xi’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the treatment of the Uyghur people and democracy campaigner Jimmy Lai. Britain is still awaiting approval of a major revamp of its embassy in Beijing, which will be expensive with U.K. contractors, materials and tech, all security-cleared, being brought in. 3) STARMER AND HIS TEAM WERE GENUINELY LOVING IT After such a build-up and so much controversy, Starmer has … been having a great time. The prime minister has struggled to peel the smile off his face and told business delegates they were “making history.” Privately, several people around him enthused about the novelty of it all (many have never visited China and Starmer has not done so since before he went into politics). One said they were looking forward to seeing how Xi operates: “He’s very enigmatic.” Briefing journalists in a small ante-room in the Forbidden City, Starmer enthused about Xi’s love of football and Shakespeare. And talking to business leaders, he repeated the president’s line about blind men finding an elephant: “One touches the leg and thinks it’s a pillow, another feels the belly and thinks it’s a wall. Too often this reflects how China is seen.” So into the spirit was Starmer that he even ticked off Kyle for not bowing deeply enough. At the signing ceremony for a string of business deals, Kyle had seen his counterpart bend halfway to the floor — and responded with a polite nod of the head. The vibes were energetic. Britain’s new ambassador to Beijing, Peter Wilson, flitted around ceaselessly and sat along from Starmer in seat 1E. The PM’s No. 10 business adviser, Varun Chandra, jumped from CEO to CEO at the British embassy. The whole delegation was on burner phones and laptops (even leaving Apple Watches at home) but the security fears soon faded to the background for U.K. officials. CEOs on the trip queued up to tell journalists that Starmer was making the right choice. “We risk a technological gulf if we don’t engage,” said one. There is one problem. Carry on like this, and Starmer will struggle to maintain his line that he is not re-entering a “golden era” — like the one controversially pushed by the Tories under David Cameron in the early 2010s — after all. 4) BUSINESS WAS EVERYTHING The trip was a tale of two groups of CEOs. The creatives and arts bosses gave the stardust and human connection that such a controversial visit needed — but business investment was the meat. In his opening speech Starmer name-checked three people: Business Secretary Peter Kyle, City Minister Lucy Rigby and No. 10 business adviser Varun Chandra. It even came through in the seating plan on the chartered British Airways plane, with financial services CEOs in the pricey seats while creatives were in economy — although this was because they were all paying their own way. Everyone knew the bargain. One arts CEO confessed that, while their industry made money too, they knew they were not the uppermost priority. Starmer’s aides insist they are delighted with what they managed to bag from Xi on Thursday, and believe it is at the top end of the expectations they had on the way out. But that will mean the focus back home on the final “big number” of investment that No. 10 produces — and the questions about whether it is worth all the political energy — are even more acute. 5) STARMER’S STILL WALKING A TIGHTROPE British CEOs were taken to see a collection of priceless Ming vases. It was a good metaphor. Starmer and the No. 10 operation were more reticent even than usual on Thursday, refusing to give on-the-record comment about several basic details of what he raised in his meeting with Xi. Journalists were told that he raised the case of democracy campaigner Jimmy Lai, but not whether he called directly for his release. The readout of the meeting from Communist China was more extensive (and poetic) than that from No. 10. Likewise, journalists were given no advance heads-up of deals on tariffs and visas, even in the few hours between the bilateral and the announcements, while the details and protocol were nailed down. There was good reason for the reticence. Not only was Starmer cautious not to offend his hosts; he also did not want to enrage U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened Canada with new tariffs after PM Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing this month. Even with No. 10 briefing the U.S. on the trip’s objectives beforehand, and Starmer giving a pre-flight interview saying he wouldn’t choose between Xi and Trump, the president called Britain’s engagement “very dangerous” on Friday. And then there’s the EU. The longer Trump’s provocations go on, the more some of Starmer’s more Europhile allies will want him to side not with the U.S. or China, but Brussels. “There’s this huge blind spot in the middle of Europe,” complained one European diplomat. “The U.K. had the advantage of being the Trump whisperer, but that’s gone now.” Starmer leaves China hoping he can whisper to Trump, Xi and Ursula von der Leyen all at the same time.

When pro-European liberal Rob Jetten defeated the far right to win the Dutch election three months ago, he gave beleaguered centrists across the region cause to hope.  Now, with a coalition deal finally agreed, his incoming government intends to do the same for NATO and the battered transatlantic alliance on which it depends.  That is the pledge from Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel, who told POLITICO in an interview what the world should expect from the new administration in The Hague, which must oversee one of Europe’s fastest growing militaries, and is a significant NATO contributor within the EU.  “You will have a government that will look at the world as it is and not as it wishes it to be,” Van Weel said this week. “Therefore you will see a government that will still consider NATO to be the cornerstone of our collective security.” But the EU itself will also need to be “stronger” on its own, both economically and in military terms, he said. Van Weel was speaking after a bruising three weeks in which Donald Trump has rocked the foundations of the transatlantic alliance. European leaders are brainstorming ideas for how to survive in a world without American protection — or even friendship.  The damage Trump’s Greenland demands have done to transatlantic trust is real: “I think that is undeniable,” he said. “Let’s hope we don’t see Greenland back on the menu.” Van Weel also regards Trump’s demands for Greenland as a damaging distraction from the urgent task of negotiating peace in Ukraine. “I really regret that this has taken up so much time and effort of so many people in these times when the whole world seems to be on fire,” he said. And, he added: “There’s many other areas around the world that we need to work together in order to achieve something. So whether or not there is trust, I think that is something we need to work on, but we need each other.” NATO OR NOT? The Netherlands, a country of only 18 million people, has pledged to meet the new NATO target to spend 5 percent of GDP on national security. It currently spends around $28 billion a year on defense. That’s a larger sum than all the European Union’s NATO members apart from France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain, all of which have populations at least twice the size of the Netherlands’. The previous Dutch government aimed to increase the size of the armed forces from 70,000 personnel to 100,000 by 2030, and perhaps 200,000 in future. Earlier in his career, Van Weel worked with Mark Rutte during the latter’s time as prime minister. Rutte now finds himself in a fight to preserve the transatlantic security alliance as secretary-general of NATO. Rutte caused uproar on Jan. 26 when he warned EU politicians they were “dreaming” if they believed Europe could defend itself without American help. Some of his critics think he is the delusional one if he believes Trump can be relied on. Van Weel thinks both sides have a point. “One, at the moment, yes, we rely heavily on the U.S.. Two, we have to decrease that … And three, that’s also in the interest of a more even and balanced transatlantic bond,” he said. European governments must be prepared to take drastic decisions to boost the region’s defenses, he believes. For example, he is not against the idea of creating a new European Security Council, which would include non-EU countries such as the U.K. “The EU was built from a premise of economic cooperation in order to prevent war and therefore never had a security-oriented structure or aim,” Van Weel said. “The world has changed. The EU needs to play a role in the security realm and therefore you might need to look at structures that we don’t have at the moment.” Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was “a major wake-up call,” as is the “changing geopolitical situation in general.” He added: “Even if you don’t want to do it [increase defense spending] for NATO, even if you don’t want to do it to please the U.S., you should do it for your own interests. And that’s why I am happy that our own coalition will indeed ensure that we reach the targets for defense spending.”  Van Weel said he hopes that a peace deal for Ukraine is “close,” adding that he was hearing “promising things” from the Ukrainian side about progress. But the big problem is Vladimir Putin, he said, and this is where Trump can help. “We do need the U.S. president to put pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table to finish this conflict,” he said. “It really is time for peace.” 

The U.K. and China have announced a new services partnership to support British businesses operating in China, including through visa-free travel for short stays. The partnership will see Beijing relax its visa rules for British citizens, adding the U.K. to its visa-free list of countries. This will enable visits of up to 30 days for business and tourism without the need for a visa. The timings of the visa change have not yet been set out. The partnership focuses on better collaboration for businesses in healthcare, financial and professional services, legal services, education and skills — areas where British firms often face regulatory or administrative hurdles.  Britain and China have also agreed to conduct a “feasibility study” to explore whether to enter negotiations towards a bilateral services agreement. If it proceeds, this would establish clear and legally binding rules for U.K. firms doing business in China. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “As one of the world’s economic powerhouses, businesses have been crying out for ways to grow their footprints in China. “We’ll make it easier for them to do so – including via relaxed visa rules for short-term travel — supporting them to expand abroad, all while boosting growth and jobs at home.” The U.K. and China have also signed pacts covering co-operation on conformity assessments for exports from the U.K. to China, food safety, animal, and plant quarantine health and the work the UK-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission. The two sides aren’t planning to publish the full texts of the pacts.

BEIJING — U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has hailed “really good progress” on Chinese whisky tariffs and visa-free travel after a lengthy meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Starmer dubbed the one hour and 20 minute sit-down with Xi as “a very good productive session with real, concrete outcomes, [which was] a real strengthening of the relationship.” Speaking to reporters after the meeting, he said: “We made some really good progress on tariffs for whisky, on visa free travel to China and on information exchange.” The news will be welcomed by Scotch whisky exporters, who have been squeezed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s 10 percent baseline tariffs on imported U.K. goods.  Currently, Scotch whisky exports face 10 percent duties in China, after the country doubled its import tariffs on brandy and whisky in February 2025, removing its provisional 5 percent rate. Exports to China fell by 31 percent last year, sliding from China’s fifth-largest export market to its tenth.  “We’ve agreed that on tariffs for whisky, we’re looking at how they’re to be reduced, what the timeframe is,” said Starmer. The two sides also made progress on visa-free travel to China for short stays — which would allow British citizens to visit for tourism, business conferences, family visits, and short exchange activities without requiring a visa. Britain is currently not among the European countries granted visa-free access to China, a list that includes France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. Starmer said the two sides are now looking at “how far, how much, and when that can start.” China issued its own readout via state news agency Xinhua, where it discussed expanded cooperation in “education, healthcare, finance, and services, and conduct joint research and industrial transformation in fields such as artificial intelligence, bioscience, new energy, and low-carbon technologies to achieve common development and prosperity.” The Chinese statement said both sides should “strengthen people-to-people exchanges and further facilitate personnel exchanges,” adding that China “is willing to actively consider implementing unilateral visa-free entry for the U.K.” Starmer and Chinese Premier Li Qiang are due to sign memorandums of understanding covering cooperation in a number of areas at a signing ceremony on Thursday morning U.K. time. Starmer and Li will also sign a border security pact to enlist Beijing’s help in choking off the supply of small boat engines and equipment used by criminal gangs to facilitate Channel crossings POLITICO first reported earlier this month that the U.K. was pushing to secure visa-free travel and lower whisky tariffs. This developing story is being updated.

Switzerland will raise its value-added tax rate for a decade to boost defense spending, its government announced today. “In view of the deteriorating geopolitical situation, the Federal Council wants to substantially strengthen Switzerland’s security and defense capabilities,” the statement reads. “To this end, additional resources in the order of 31 billion Swiss francs [€33 billion] are required.” The Council plans to temporarily raise VAT by 0.8 percent from the current 8.1 percent for 10 years, as of 2028. The additional revenues will be allocated to an armament fund that will also have borrowing capacity. However, raising the VAT requires a change in the constitution and a public consultation will open in the spring. Switzerland has been rethinking its defense stance since Russia’s attack on Ukraine almost four years ago. It is looking for more military cooperation with European nations and ramping up its rearmament, although it still has no intention of joining NATO. Switzerland spends about 0.7 percent of its GDP on defense, one of the lowest rates in Europe. The current goal of boosting that to 1 percent by 2032 is now out of date, the Federal Council said. “Due to the savings made in recent decades, the armed forces are also insufficiently equipped, particularly to effectively repel the most likely threats, namely long-range attacks and hybrid conflicts,” the statement added. Priorities for the country’s armament push include short- and medium-range air defense systems, cybersecurity and electromagnetic capabilities.