France struggles to find political equilibrium

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe.

France’s municipal elections were never meant to be a dress rehearsal for its next presidential race. And yet, the first round of voting on March 15 was exactly that, offering a revealing and deeply paradoxical snapshot of a politically fractured country.

At first glance, the results seemed to confirm the prevailing narrative: That Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) remains the dominant force in French politics, with national opinion polls giving the party a commanding 19-point lead ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.

But the reality beneath these headlines is more complicated — and perhaps more fragile.

First, the RN’s first-round performance was uneven at best. It did make some advances: It remains competitive in Marseille, leads in Toulon, and most importantly is poised to capture Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, in the second round this coming Sunday.

However, analysts have pointed out that the city’s mayoral candidate Eric Ciotti — a former president of the center-right Republicans — only recently joined the RN and made a point of distancing himself from the far-right party throughout his campaign.

Furthermore, these gains fell short of both the party’s and pollsters’ expectations. In fact, in most of France’s major urban centers like Paris, Lyon, Toulouse, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg and Bordeaux, the RN scored less than 8 percent.

The party’s struggles in these big cities suggest that for all its national appeal, it still encounters resistance when voters are asked to entrust it with an actual mandate to govern. French voters may flirt with the far right in theory, but in practice many remain cautious.

The most surprising development, meanwhile, was the performance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard-left France Unbowed movement, which exceeded expectations across the country. The party captured Saint-Denis, is likely to win Roubaix, and gave a strong performance in cities like Toulouse and Lille.

It appears this surge was driven, at least in part, by geopolitical developments — specifically the war in Iran. Based on impressions on the ground, heightened anti-war sentiment seems to have mobilized both the Muslim and young hard-left voters who form the party’s base.

The implications of this are significant: Many had written Mélenchon off after a series of scandals and a dip in national polling. But these successes suggest he may yet play an important role in shaping the presidential elections — again — making it difficult for a more moderate left candidate to emerge and possibly even reaching the final run-off alongside the far right.

Meanwhile, France’s traditional parties — the center-left Socialists and center-right Republicans — continue to display an unexpected resilience at the local level, despite being nationally sidelined since 2017. Together they dominated a majority of towns, including many of the country’s largest cities, remaining deeply embedded in municipal politics.

By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist movement remains conspicuously weak, having failed to establish a meaningful municipal base after nearly a decade in power. It’s an absence that helps explain the lack of a clear anti-incumbent wave, as voters had limited opportunities to express dissatisfaction with the government at the local ballot box given the relatively few centrist mayors they could unseat.

Finally, amid this fragmented field, the one figure that stands out is former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe.

Philippe’s strong showing in Le Havre — where he secured 43 percent of the vote in the first round — comfortably positions him for reelection. And out of the large pack of candidates trailing behind the far right in the presidential polls, he now looks to be the strongest (though marginally) and most experienced contender. Philippe had previously said he would abandon his national ambitions if he lost the mayoral race, but a good win on Sunday could easily relaunch his flagging national campaign.

The second round of municipal elections will, of course, be crucial. A strong showing by the RN — particularly if the party is able to capture Marseille and Toulon — could restore its momentum and reinforce its performance at the national level.

But in such an uncertain environment, next year’s race is far from decided. And what the first round of municipal results really reveal isn’t so much a country marching in one direction as one pulled in several at once, searching — perhaps uneasily — for a new political equilibrium.