Winter vacation can’t start soon enough for Pedro Sánchez. Spain’s governing Socialist Party is being battered by a deluge of sexual harassment scandals that is prompting the resignation or dismissal of mayors, regional leaders and even officials employed in the prime minister’s palace. Within the party, there’s open recognition that its self-proclaimed status as the country’s premier progressive political entity is being severely undermined. The scandals are also provoking major fractures within Sánchez’s coalition government and parliamentary alliance, with even his most reliable collaborators demanding he make major changes — or call snap elections. Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, whose far-left Sumar party is the junior partner in Sánchez’s coalition government, said on Friday that a “profound Cabinet reshuffle” was needed to make a clean break with the rot. Aitor Esteban, president of the Basque Nationalist Party — one of the government’s most reliable parliamentary partners — said if the Socialists fail to halt the “daily hemorrhage of news stories,” snap elections must be held. Spain’s Socialists are no strangers to scandal, having spent the past two years dealing with endless headline-grabbing revelations detailing the alleged embezzlement of public funds by former Transport Minister José Luis Ábalos and party boss Santos Cerdán — both of whom maintain their innocence. Sánchez has so far weathered the storms by insisting the corruption cases are limited to just a few bad apples, and arguing that only his government can keep the country on a socially liberal track. But the scale of the sexual harassment scandals revealed in recent days — which have coincided with anti-corruption raids in government buildings — represent an unprecedented challenge for the prime minister. There are serious doubts that Sánchez’s “stay-the-course” playbook will suffice to see his government through this latest political earthquake. GROWING SKEPTICISM When Sánchez came to power in 2018 he boasted that he led “the most feminist government in history,” with 11 of the country’s 17 ministries led by women. Over the past seven years his successive administrations have passed legislation to ensure gender balance in key sectors, fight gender-based violence and promote gender equality abroad. But the actions of some of Sa´nchez’s fellow Socialists are fueling growing skepticism about whether the governing party truly respects women. Last summer the prime minister apologized to supporters and expressed his “shame” after the release of wiretaps on which the Spanish police alleged former Transport Minister Ábalos could be heard describing his trysts with female sex workers. Ábalos, for his part, claims the recordings have been manipulated and the voice they capture is not his. Weeks later, sexual harassment complaints against another of the prime minister’s long-time collaborators, Francisco Salazar, forced his resignation on the very day he was meant to assume a new role as one of the party’s top leaders. That scandal resurfaced this month after Spanish media revealed the party had slow-walked its investigation into the alleged abuses committed by Salazar, who maintains his innocence. Last week Sánchez said he took “personal responsibility” for the botched investigation and apologized for not reaching out to Salazar’s victims. He also ordered the dismissal of Antonio Hernández, an official employed in the prime minister’s palace whom Salazar’s victims had singled out as the harasser’s alleged “accomplice.” Hernández denies the accusation. Sánchez’s attempts to contain the situation don’t appear to have quelled indignation over the party’s failure to address Salazar’s alleged abuses, and the frustration has resulted in a version of the #MeToo movement within the Socialists’ ranks. Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, whose far-left Sumar party is the junior partner in Sánchez’s coalition government, said on Friday that a “profound Cabinet reshuffle” was needed to make a clean break with the rot. | Perez Meca/Getty Images Over recent days, the party’s boss in Torremolinos has been suspended from his post after being denounced for sexual harassment by an alderman, who also accused the Socialists of failing to act when she first reported the alleged abuses last summer. Belalcázar’s mayor has also stepped down following the publication of sexually explicit messages to a municipal employee, and the launch of an investigation for alleged harassment has prompted the Socialists’ deputy secretary in the province of Valencia to leave the party. The three officials deny the accusations against them. So, too, does José Tomé, who insists the multiple sexual harassment complaints that resulted in his resignation as president of the Provincial Council of Lugo this week are completely unfounded. The admission of regional leader José Ramón Gómez Besteiro that he had been aware of the allegations against Tomé for months prompted the party’s regional equality czar to step down in disgust, and are generating doubts regarding the Socialists’ political future in the Galicia. TROUBLED TIMES The barrage of sexual harassment complaints are a major problem for Sánchez. Women are a key segment of his party’s voter base: Female voters tend to participate in elections to a greater extent than men, and have historically mobilized in favor of the Socialists. But surveys by the country’s national polling institute reveal that women are becoming increasingly disenchanted with the party. In a poll carried out shortly after the Ábalos recordings were released, support for the Socialists among female voters dropped from 26.2 percent to 19.4 percent. Pilar Bernabé, the party’s equality secretary, admitted on Friday that the wave of harassment complaints marked a “before and after” moment for the Socialists, who now had to prove that they have zero tolerance for abuse. “Sexism is incompatible with Socialism,” she added. The challenges to the party’s bona fides are less than welcome at a moment when it faces multiple corruption investigations. In addition to the ongoing probes into Ábalos and Cerdán — both of whom were ordered jailed without bond last month — this week former Socialist Party member Leire Díez along with Vicente Fernández, the former head of the state-owned agency charged with managing Spain’s business holdings, were arrested for alleged embezzlement and influence peddling. At their respective bail hearings, Díez invoked her right to remain silent, while Fernández denied any wrongdoing. Days later, the elite anti-corruption unit of Spain’s Civil Guard raided several agencies managed by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge, as well as the headquarters of the Spanish Postal Service, as part of a related investigation into the alleged rigging of public contracts. CAN SÁNCHEZ CARRY ON? During a campaign event headlined by Sa´nchez on Sunday, party members urged the prime minister to act. “Take a firm hand to the harassers, the womanizers, the chauvinists!” said Irene Pozas, head of the Socialist Youth in the province of Cáceres. “Don’t hold back, Pedro: The women of the Socialist Party must not have any cause for regret!” Pedro Sánchez may be hoping for relief from the scandals during the upcoming holiday break in Spain, but it’s unclear if his party, and the weak coalition government it leads, will be able to recover. | Marcos del Mazo/Getty Images While admitting shortcomings in the party’s internal mechanisms for handling complaints, Sánchez defended the Socialists’ determination to “act decisively and transparently” to tackle sexism and corruption. The prime minister also defiantly asserted his will to carry on, telling supporters that “governing means facing the music and staying strong through thick and thin.” Sánchez may be hoping for relief from the scandals during the upcoming holiday break in Spain, but it’s unclear if his party, and the weak coalition government it leads, will be able to recover. Although the prime minister insists he intends to govern until the current legislative term ends in 2027, his inability to pass a fresh budget and wider difficulties in passing legislation jeopardize that goal. The Socialists’ parliamentary allies are reluctant to see Sánchez fall because they know snap elections will almost certainly produce a right-wing government influenced by the far-right Vox party. But they are also wary of being associated misogyny and fraud — especially if voters may soon be heading to the polls. “Stopping the far right and the extreme right is always a non-negotiable duty, but it is not achieved merely by saying it, but by demonstrating that we are better,” tweeted the president of the Republican Left of Catalonia, Oriol Junqueras. “Those who abuse and become corrupt cannot regenerate democracy.”

EUROPE’S CENTER ISN’T HOLDING ANYMORE Despite recent election wins for moderates in the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K., the far right is stronger than ever. By TIM ROSS in Jaywick, England Illustration by Merijn Hos for POLITICO In recent elections, voters in Europe have given hope to embattled centrist politicians across the Western world.   Donald Trump may have romped back into the White House, but the international movement of MAGA-aligned populists has run into trouble across the Atlantic. At elections in the U.K., France, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania — and in a sprawling vote across 27 EU countries for the European Parliament — mainstream candidates defeated populist hardliners and far-right nationalists.  “There remains a majority in the center for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, after the EU Parliament elections last year. “In other words, the center is holding.”   Sixteen months later, that hold is looking anything but secure.    Hard-right and far-right politicians are now leading the polls in France, the U.K. and even Germany. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval rating is a dire 21 percent. His French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, is even lower, at 11 percent — and the mood is so grim that this fall’s spectacular theft at the Louvre is being treated by some as a giant metaphor for a country unable to manage its challenges.   Even von der Leyen’s own EU conservatives now rely on the votes of far right lawmakers to get her plans approved in Brussels. One outraged centrist likened the shift to those German politicians who enabled Adolf Hitler to take power. Populists at the extremes, meanwhile, cast themselves as the obvious alternative for populations that want change. And now they can expect Trump to help: In a brutal rupture of transatlantic norms, a new U.S. National Security Strategy aims to use American diplomacy to cultivate “resistance” to political correctness in Europe — especially on migration — and to support parties it describes as “patriotic.” Trump himself told POLITICO he would endorse candidates he believed would move Europe in the right direction. On that rightward trajectory, in the next four years the political map of the West faces its most dramatic upheaval since the Cold War. The implications for geopolitics, from trade to defense, could be profound.   “What [Europeans are] getting from Trump is the strategy of maximum polarization that hollows out the center,” said Will Marshall from the Progressive Policy Institute, the centrist American think tank that backed Bill Clinton in the 1990s. “The old established parties of left and right that dominated the post war era have gotten weaker,” he said. “The nationalist or populist right’s revolt is against them.”  Nowhere is this recent transformation more dramatic than in the U.K.   As the sun sinks toward the horizon over a calm sea one Thursday evening in November, half a dozen regulars huddle around the bar in the Never Say Die pub, a few yards from the beach at Jaywick Sands, on the east coast of England.   Built in the 1930s as a resort 70 miles from London, Jaywick is now the most deprived neighborhood in the country. The area had such a bad image that in 2018 a U.S. MAGA ad used a photograph of a dilapidated Jaywick street to warn of the apocalyptic future facing America if Trump’s candidates were not elected.   Jaywick was named England’s most deprived neighbourhood in October — for the fourth time since 2010. | Tolga Akmen/EPA It is here among the pebbledashed bungalows and England flags hanging limp from lampposts that a new political force — Nigel Farage’s rightwing Reform UK — has built its heartland.   At the bar, Dave Laurence, 82, says he doesn’t vote, as a rule, but made an exception for Farage, who was elected to represent the area last year. “I quite like him. He’s doing the best he can,” Laurence says as he sips his pint of lager, with ’80s pop hits playing in the background. “I’ll vote for him again.”  Laurence freely describes himself as “racist” and says he would never vote for a Black person, such as the center-right Conservative Party’s leader Kemi Badenoch. What troubles him most, he says, is the number of immigrants who have arrived in the U.K. during his lifetime, especially those crossing the Channel in small boats. Soon, Laurence fears, the country will be “full of Muslims and they’ll fucking rebel against us.”  With its anti-establishment, immigration-fighting agenda, Farage’s Reform UK offers voters a program tightly in tune with far-right parties that have gained ground across the West. According to opinion polls, Farage now has a real chance of becoming the U.K.’s next prime minister if the vote were held today. (A general election is not due until 2029).   It’s startling to note that as recently as July 2024, Starmer’s Labour Party won a historic landslide and some of his triumphant election aides traveled to the U.S. to advise Democrats on strategy. Today, Starmer is derided as “First Gear Keir” as he fights off leadership rivals rumored to be trying to oust him. And Reform isn’t the only force remaking British party politics. To the left of Labour, the Greens have also made recent gains in the polls under a new leader calling himself an “eco-populist.”   Farage’s stunning rise from the sidelines to the front of a political revolution carries lessons well beyond Britain’s borders. Europeans raised in the old school of mainstream politics fear that the traditional centerground — their home turf — will not hold.   ‘DURABLY UNSTABLE’   Macron, for his part, tried to counter the rise of the hard right by calling a snap election for the French National Assembly last year. The gamble backfired, delivering a hung parliament that has been unable to agree on key economic policies ever since. Macron is now historically unpopular.   French lawmakers’ clashes over the budget have toppled three of Macron’s picks as prime minister since the summer of 2024. A backlash against his plan to raise the pension age has forced ratings agencies to mull a damaging downgrade. Macron, who himself became president by launching a new centrist movement to rival the political establishment, now has no traditional party machinery to help bolster his position. “He’ll leave a political landscape that is perhaps durably unstable. It’s unforgivable,” said Alain Minc, an influential adviser and former mentor to the French president.  The chaos gives populists their chance. The main politicians making any running in conversations about the next presidential election belong to the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen and its youthful party president Jordan Bardella, who are riding high in the polls at 34 percent.   In Germany, too, the center ground is steadily eroding.   Though Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won a snap election in February, his ideologically uneasy coalition, which consists of his own conservative bloc and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), holds one of the slimmest parliamentary majorities for a government since 1945, with just 52 percent of seats. That leaves the Merz coalition vulnerable to small defections within the ranks and makes it hard for him to achieve anything ambitious in government. The far-left Die Linke party and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) both surged at the last election, too, with AfD winning the best result in a national election for any far-right party since World War II.  Merz’s attempt to defang the AfD by moving his conservatives sharply to the right on the issue of migration seems to have backfired. The AfD has only continued its rise, surpassing Merz’s conservatives in many polls.   The rise of the far-right is a cultural shock to many centrist Germans, given the country’s deeply entrenched desire to avoid repeating its past. “For a long time in Germany we thought with our history, and the way we teach in our schools, we would be a bit more immune to that,” one concerned German official said. “It turned out we are not.”   Even in the Netherlands, where centrist Rob Jetten won a famous but narrow victory over the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders in October, there are reasons for mainstream politicians to worry. Wilders’ Freedom Party is still one of the biggest forces in the land, winning the same number of seats as Jetten’s D66. He could well return next time, just as Trump did in the U.S.   WHERE DID ALL THE VOTERS GO?   According to polling firm Ipsos, a large proportion of voters in many Western democracies now have little faith in the political process. While they still believe in democratic values, they are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working for them.   A large survey questioning around 10,000 voters across nine countries found 45 percent were dissatisfied, fueling support for the extremes. Among voters on the far left (57 percent) and the far right (54 percent), levels of dissatisfaction were highest of all.   The countries with the highest rates of dissatisfaction in the Ipsos study were France and the Netherlands, where political upheaval has taken its toll on faith in the system.   Anti-riot police officers stand next to a demonstration called by far-right activist Els Rechts against the Netherlands’ current asylum policy, in September in The Hague. | Josh Walet/ANP via Getty Images Alongside the coronavirus pandemic and the aftermath of lockdowns, the biggest drivers of dissatisfaction were the cost of living, immigration and crime, according to Gideon Skinner from Ipsos. Trust in politics fell in the 90s and took another hit in the late 2000s at the time of the financial crash, he said.   “There may be specific things that have made it worse over the last couple of years but it’s also a long-term condition,” Skinner told POLITICO. “It’s something we do need to worry about and there is not a silver bullet that can fix it all.”  Perhaps the greatest problem for incumbent centrists is that in most cases their economies are so moribund that they lack the fiscal firepower to spend money addressing the issues disillusioned voters care about most — like high living costs, ailing public services and migration.  THE INEQUALITY EMERGENCY   The financial crisis of 2008 and the coronavirus lockdowns of 2020-21 left many governments strapped for cash. In the U.K., for example, the economy was 16 percent smaller than it should have been a decade after the 2008 crash if prior growth trends had continued, according to Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London.   “Crucially, the impact of the financial crisis, like the impact of so much else in our politics, was massively unequal,” Menon said. “Prosperous places with high productivity, with well-educated workforces suffered far, far less than poorer parts of the country.”   Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz submitted a study to the G20 in November warning that the world was facing an “inequality emergency.” Fueled by war, pandemic and trade disruptions, the crisis risks preparing the ground for more authoritarian leaders, his report said.   In many Western countries, the centerground is more than just a metaphor. It is in capital cities like London, Paris and Washington that power and money accumulate and the economic and political elites seek to maintain their grip on the status quo.   The further you travel from these centers out to areas in decline, the more likely you are to find support for radical politics.   As Menon notes, Britain’s 2016 revolution — the referendum vote to leave the European Union after almost half a century of membership — can be mapped onto the culinary geography of the country.   “Pret a Manger” is a smart national chain of sandwich and coffee shops, catering for hungry commuters and office workers in wealthy, successful British cities. “Places that had a Pret voted Remain,” Menon said. Parts of the U.K. where median wages were lower were disproportionately likely to vote to leave the EU.   IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION   After the Brexit vote in 2016, immigration slid from the top of the priority list for British voters and Farage himself took a step back. Both have now returned, as Farage rides a wave of headlines about irregular migrants landing in small boats from France.   From January to May this year, there were a record 14,800 small boat crossings, 42 percent more than in the same period in the previous year, according to Oxford University’s Migration Observatory.   For Laurence, in the Never Say Die pub, the small boats represent the biggest issue of all. “What’s going to happen in 10 years’ time? What’s going to happen in 20 years’ time when the boat people are still coming over?” he asked.   A decade ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the doors to hundreds of thousands of refugees arriving into Europe from Syria, as well as Afghanistan and Iraq. The AfD surged in the months that followed, permanently changing German politics. At February’s election, the AfD won a record 21 percent of the vote, finishing in second place behind Merz’s conservative bloc.  “The fundamental failure that is common to the whole [centrist] transatlantic community is on immigration,” said Marshall from the Progressive Policy Institute. “All of the far-right movements have made it their top issue.”   It is the perceived threat that waves of migration pose to traditional national cultures which drives much of the support for the far right. Trump’s White House is now primed to join the European nationalists’ fight. According to a new U.S. National Security Strategy document released in December, Europe is facing “civilisational erasure” from unrestricted immigration, as well as falling birthrates. The analysis draws on the so-called great replacement theory, a racist conspiracy theory. Free speech — in the MAGA definition, at least — is another casualty of conventional centrist rule in Europe, as political correctness veers into “censorship,” the U.S. document said. Protesters demostrate under the motto “Loud against Nazis” in early February in Berlin. After years of decline, The Left party  pulled off a stunning revival in the general election later that month. | John MacDougall via AFP/Getty Images In his interview with POLITICO earlier this week, Trump aligned himself fully with the strategy paper. European nations are “decaying” and their “weak” leaders can expect to be challenged by rivals with American support, he said. “I’d endorse,” he added. In Brussels, the double-punch of the president’s interview and the strategy document left diplomats and officials feeling bruised and alarmed all over again, after a period in which they allowed themselves to hope that the transatlantic alliance wasn’t dying. One EU diplomat was blunt in assessing Trump’s new method: “It’s autocracy.” THE STOLEN JEWELS  Sometimes, it takes a random news event — ostensibly unconnected to politics — to crystalize the national mood. In Paris, the theft of France’s priceless crown jewels from the Louvre provided just such an opportunity, morphing into an indictment of an establishment that can’t get the job done, even when the job simply involves thoroughly locking the windows at the world’s most famous museum. National Rally leader Jordan Bardella called the incident a “humiliation” before asking: “How far will the breakdown of the state go?”   In Britain, just a month after Starmer’s victory last year, riots broke out across the country, fueled by far-right extremists. The catalyst was the murder of three young girls aged 6, 7 and 9, in Southport, northwest England, by a Black teenager wrongly identified at the time on social media — in posts amplified by the far-right — as a Muslim.   At the time, Farage suggested the police were withholding the truth about the suspect, earning him the fury of mainstream politicians. While stressing he did not support violence, Farage railed against what he called “two-tier policing,” a phrase popular among far-right commentators who claim police treat right-wing protesters more harshly than those on the left.  It’s an opinion that resonates in Jaywick. Chennelle Rutland, 56, is walking her two dogs along the beachfront, admiring the view as the sun sets, flaring the sky orange, then purple. The colors catch the surface of the flat sea. “It’s one rule for one and one rule for the other,” she says. “The whites have got to shut up because if you do say anything, you’re ‘racist’ and ‘far right.’”   Far-right activist Tommy Robinson invited his supporters to attend the “Unite The Kingdom” rally in September. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images It would be wrong to characterise residents of Jaywick as simply ignorant or full of rage. Many who spoke to POLITICO there were cheerful, happy with their community and up to speed with the news. But, just as they’d soured on their country’s centrist establishment, they were also tuning out its favored news sources.   In Jaywick, some of Farage’s voters prefer GB News, Britain’s answer to Fox News, which launched in 2021, or learn about current affairs from YouTube and other social media. The BBC — for decades the mainstay of the British media landscape — has lost a portion of its audience here. Right-wing commentators and politicians attack it as biased. Trump has lately joined in, threatening to sue over a BBC edit that he said deceptively made it look as if he was explicitly inciting violence. The BBC’s director general and head of news both resigned. In the process, another piece of Britain’s onetime centerground was giving way.   WHAT NEXT?   There are reasons for centrists to hope. In Rome, Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right Brothers of Italy party has become less extreme in power, and the worst fears of moderates about a group with its historic roots in neo-fascism have not come to pass. She remains popular, and while pushing a culture war at home, she has avoided the wrath of the EU leadership and kept Trump onside.   Populists and nationalists don’t always win. Trump lost in 2020. In the Netherlands, Wilders lost in October this year, though only by a whisker. Romania’s Nicușor Dan won the presidency as a centrist in May, but again only narrowly defeating his far-right opponent.   Structural obstacles may also slow the radicals’ progress. The U.K.’s first-past-the-post voting system makes it hard for new parties to do well. The two-round French system has so far stopped Le Pen’s National Rally from gaining power as centrists combine to back moderates. In Germany, a similar “firewall” exists under which center parties keep the far-right out.   After the Brexit vote in 2016, immigration slid from the top of the priority list for British voters and Farage himself took a step back. Both have now returned. | Tolga Akmen/EPA Even as he enjoys a sustained lead in the polls and wins local elections in the U.K., Farage has not convinced voters that Reform would do a good job. Even some of his supporters worry he will be out of his depth in government.   The problem, for the centrists who are in power, is that a lot of voters seem to think they, too, are out of their depth. And, whether that involves dealing with migration, combatting inequality, or just boosting the security around the Mona Lisa, it’s a reputation they’ll need to fix in order to survive — no easy task given the intractability of the challenges facing the rich world.  The next year will see more elections at which the centrists — and their populists rivals — will be tested. In Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long seen as the far-right bad boy of EU politics, is fighting to keep power at an election expected in April. There are regional votes in Germany where the AfD is on track to prosper. France may require yet another snap election to end its political paralysis. Trump’s diplomats and officials will be ready to intervene. Farage’s party, too, will be on the ballot in 2026: It is expected to make gains in Wales, Scotland and local votes elsewhere next spring. After that, his sights will be on the U.K. general election expected in 2029, by which time European politics may look very different.   “Of course I know Mr. Orban and of course I know Giorgia Meloni, of course I know these people,” Farage told POLITICO at a recent Reform rally. “I suspect that after the next election cycle in Europe there will be even more that I know.” Natalie Fertig in Washington, Clea Caulcutt in Paris and James Angelos in Berlin contributed to this report.  

LONDON — Donald Trump has launched a crusade to convert European politics to his cause, mobilizing the full force of American diplomacy to promote “patriotic” parties, stamp on migration, destroy “censorship” and save “civilization” from decay.  The question is whether Europe’s embattled centrists have the power, or the will, to stop him. In its newly released National Security Strategy document, the White House set out for the first time in a comprehensive form its approach to the geopolitical challenges facing the U.S. and the world. While bringing peace to Ukraine gets a mention, when it comes to Europe, America’s official stance is now that its security depends on shifting the continent’s politics decisively to the right. Over the course of three pages, the document blames the European Union, among others, for raising the risk of “civilizational erasure,” due to a surge in immigrants, slumping birth rates and the purported erosion of democratic freedoms.  “Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,” it says. “As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.” With its talk of birth rates declining and immigration rising, the racial dimension to the White House rhetoric is hard to ignore. It will be familiar to voters in Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany, where far-right politicians have articulated the so-called “great replacement theory,” a racist conspiracy theory falsely asserting that elites are part of a plot to dilute the white population and diminish its influence. “We want Europe to remain European,” the document says. “Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,” the document reads — making it “an open question” whether such countries will continue to view an alliance with the U.S. as desirable. The policy prescription that follows is, in essence, regime change. “Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory,” the strategy document says. That will involve “cultivating resistance” within European nations. In case there is any doubt about the political nature of the message, the White House paper celebrates “the growing influence of patriotic European parties” as a cause for American optimism. In other words: Back the far right to make Europe great again. FIGHTING SHY Since Trump returned to the White House in January, European leaders have kept up a remarkable performance of remaining calm amid his provocations, so far avoiding an open conflict that would sever transatlantic relations entirely. But for centrist leaders currently in power — like Emmanuel Macron in Paris, Keir Starmer in London and Germany’s Friedrich Merz — the new Trump doctrine poses a challenge so existential that they may be forced to confront it head-on.  “We are facing the same challenges, or versions of the same challenges, and we do talk about it,” Starmer said. | Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images That confrontation could come sooner rather than later, with high-stakes elections in parts of Britain and Germany next year and the possibility of a snap national vote ever-present in France. In each case, MAGA-aligned parties — Reform U.K., the Alternative for Germany and the National Rally — are poised to make gains at the expense of establishment centrists currently in power. America, it is now clear, may well intervene to help.  On current evidence, European officials whose job it is to protect their elections from foreign interference have little appetite for a fight with Trump. The European Commission recently unveiled its plans for a “democracy shield” to protect elections from disinformation and foreign interference. Michael McGrath, the commissioner responsible for the policy, told POLITICO recently that the shield should be drawn widely as Russia is “not the only actor” that may have “a vested interest” in influencing elections. “There are many actors who would like to damage the fabric of the EU, and ultimately undermine trust in its institutions,” he said.  In light of the new National Security Strategy, Trump’s America must now surely count among them.  But McGrath played the diplomat when asked, before the strategy was published, if he would rather U.S. leaders stopped campaigning in European elections and criticizing European democracy.  “They’re entitled to their views, but we have our own standards and we seek to apply our own values and the European approach to international affairs and international diplomacy,” McGrath replied. “We don’t comment or interfere on the domestic matters of a close partner like the United States.” PATHETIC FREELOADERS Even before the strategy was published, Trump administration figures had already provided ample evidence of its disdain for Europe’s political center ground. So far this year, Vice President JD Vance launched a broadside against Europe over free speech and democracy; Elon Musk intervened in the German election to back the far-right Alternative for Germany; and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth privately savaged “pathetic” Europeans for “freeloading” on security.  The difference this time is that Trump’s National Security Strategy is official. “It was one thing for them to think it and say it to each other (or in a speech in Munich),” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s something else to put it into a policy document.” What is worse for leaders like Macron, Merz and Starmer is that the Trumpian analysis — that a critical mass of voters want their own European MAGA — may, ultimately, be right.  These leaders are all under immense pressure from the populist right in their own backyards. In Britain, Nigel Farage’s Reform U.K. is on track to make major gains at next year’s regional and local elections, potentially triggering a leadership challenge in the governing Labour Party that could force Starmer out.  In Paris, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally tortures Macron’s struggling administrators in parliament, while the Alternative for Germany breathes down Merz’s neck in Berlin and pushes him to take ever harder positions on migration.  The British prime minister disclosed in an interview with The Economist this week that he spoke to Merz and Macron at a recent private dinner in Berlin about the shared threat they all face from the right. “We are facing the same challenges, or versions of the same challenges, and we do talk about it,” Starmer said.  If America makes good on Trump’s new strategy, private dinner party chats among friends may not be enough.

Kosovo is heading toward a snap election after political parties failed to agree on a governing majority Wednesday, leading to the dissolution of parliament. President Vjosa Osmani announced that the election will take place on Dec. 28, bringing Kosovo back to the polls for the seventh time since its independence from Serbia in 2008. More than nine months have passed since Kosovo held its latest parliamentary election, in which Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s ruling Self-Determination party (VV) won the most votes but fell short of securing the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. Parties have been engaged in talks but failed to meet the Nov. 19 constitutional deadline to form a government. “Once again, the opposition chose obstruction over responsibility, blocking the will of the majority and preventing Kosovo from moving forward,” Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Liza Gashi, a member of VV, told POLITICO. Kurti offered to step aside and let his VV colleague, Glauk Konjufca, speaker of the Assembly, take the mandate of prime minister, proposing to serve as deputy PM and foreign minister instead — after Kurti himself failed to form a government on Oct. 26. In a last-ditch effort, President Osmani gave Konjufca the mandate to propose a Cabinet, which he presented to MPs on Wednesday. But Konjufca’s proposal won only 56 votes in the 120-seat Assembly — falling short of the 61 needed. The Western Balkan country applied for EU membership in 2022, but remains only a potential candidate: Five member countries still do not recognize Kosovo, and an unresolved, EU-mediated dialogue with Serbia has left Pristina’s accession prospects effectively frozen. “The reality right now is we don’t even have our application looked at,” Osmani told POLITICO in a recent interview. “It’s somewhere in the drawers of the European Union, but it’s not moving forward.” The EU and the U.S. have also imposed political sanctions on Kosovo following tension in the northern part of the country where the Serb-minority resides, after Kurti installed Albanian mayors, which was largely seen as provocative. “The EU is aware of Wednesday’s developments in the Kosovo Assembly and expresses regret over the failure of the political parties, which were unable to overcome the prolonged political deadlock following the February 2025 parliamentary elections,” a Commission spokesperson said. “The EU stands ready to work with Kosovo authorities and to continue supporting Kosovo on its path towards the EU,” the spokesperson added.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats suffered heavy losses in Tuesday’s nationwide local elections, losing key cities including Copenhagen for the first time since 1903. “We had expected losses, but the decline appears to be greater than we had expected,” Frederiksen told supporters at a party event in the Danish capital. “That is, of course, not satisfactory.” Although the Social Democrats remain Denmark’s most popular political group, securing around 23 percent of all votes, support for the party declined in 87 of the country’s 98 municipalities. The prime minister said she took “responsibility” for the electoral debacle, and said that she would “carefully consider what is behind it.” With Denmark required to hold general elections within the next year, the losses in Copenhagen and other Danish cities are likely to put pressure on Frederiksen to change course on some of her signature policies during the coming months. The liberal Venstre group now controlling the largest number of mayoralties in Denmark underscores the political disaster suffered by Frederiksen’s party, whose electoral base is supposed to be made up of urban voters. The high cost of housing dominated the campaign in Denmark’s largest municipalities, with voters exasperated by the national government’s response. In Copenhagen, where home prices have risen by 20 percent over the past year, just 12.7 percent of electors backed the prime minister’s party. After 122 years of Social Democrat rule in Copenhagen, the party’s candidate, Pernille Rosenkrantz–Theill, was not even invited to attend negotiations to form the capital’s next government. Sisse Marie Welling — whose Socialists made the largest gains in the election — will be Copenhagen’s new lord mayor, leading a “green and progressive majority.” Welling has tapped Line Barfod, whose Red-Green Alliance secured 1 out of every 5 votes cast in the capital, to be Copenhagen’s environment czar. That poses a major threat to the government’s controversial Lynetteholm artificial island project, which is meant to protect the city from flooding and create space for new housing. Barfod is a longtime opponent of the €2.7 billion scheme and she’s likely to make much of a new report showing the project is leaking cyanide into Copenhagen’s waters. Beyond the capital, the Social Democrats suffered dramatic reversals in traditional bastions like Frederikshavn, where support for the party fell by half. The far-right Danish Democrats performed well in rural municipalities in Jutland, and won more seats than the number of candidates they had running for office in places such as Lolland. While the prime minister — whose birthday is Wednesday — said that local factors had contributed to the defeat, she acknowledged that there were “also trends that transcend local conditions.” Beyond debates over classic urban issues like mobility policies and access to green spaces, the local elections were seen as a referendum on the rightward turn the Social Democrats have taken at the national level. Based on the results, voters in major cities appear to be souring on Frederiksen’s tough stance on migration and her willingness to ally with economic liberal parties.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he’s not afraid to lose the next election, as he faces a rare challenge to his two-decade grip on power in Budapest. Polls show the Fidesz party of Orbán, who has served as prime minister for almost 20 years and uninterrupted for the last 15, trailing Hungary’s opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar. In an interview with Mathias Döpfner, CEO of German media group Axel Springer, which owns POLITICO, Orbán said he had “practice” in opposition and wasn’t concerned about his political survival, in response to a question about whether he would accept the result if he lost. Magyar is flying high in the polls on promises to root out corruption and revitalize Hungary’s stagnating economy. The election is set to take place in the spring, likely April. “I am not just the record holder of being prime minister, but I’m a record holder of being the leader of opposition as well,” Orbán said. “I have an experience. I spent 16 years in politics as leader of the opposition,” he added. “Don’t be afraid. I know how to continue.” Orbán’s 15-year rule has seen Budapest be criticized for backsliding on democracy and rule of law, with the populist-nationalist prime minister frequently clashing with the EU on support for Ukraine, LGBTQ+ rights and Russian sanctions. “The European Union is a danger to us. They are blackmailing us,” he said. “They try to suffocate us economically and financially.” Magyar is not his “main opponent” in the election, Orbán argued, but Brussels. “Brussels would like to change the government in Hungary. They would like a government here in Hungary, as they have done in Poland, which is following the instructions coming from Brussels on migration, on economy, on war,” he said. “But I’m not that guy.”

Andrej Babiš, the right-wing populist who on Monday formed Czechia’s next government, wants to derail EU plans on curbing emissions, according to the government’s coalition program, seen by POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook. Babiš and his ANO movement formed a coalition with the right-wing Motorists for Themselves party and the nationalist Freedom and Direct Democracy. Babiš is expected to make his return to the European Council table at the next gathering of EU leaders in Brussels on Dec. 18-19. Critics fear that Czechia could become a new bête noire for the EU alongside Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia. “I believe that if we look at his statements and his allies in Europe — like Viktor Orbán and what he has done with Hungary — he [Babiš] will start pushing the Czech Republic toward the margins,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told POLITICO. While Babiš still needs to be formally nominated as prime minister by the Czech president, he already has grand plans for his EU comeback: unraveling the bloc’s green policies. “The Green Deal is unsustainable in its current form, which is why we will promote its fundamental revision,” the draft coalition program reads.   The new government plans to push back against the implementation of a new market that would put a price on heating and fuel emissions (dubbed ETS2). The new emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the EU’s efforts to slash planet-warming emissions from the building and transport sectors and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The Czech plan also states the government “will initiate a European-level reassessment” of the original emissions trading scheme, ETS1, which covers pollution from heavy industries and the energy sector. EU governments have already voted in favor of ETS2 and it is due to come into effect in 2027. However, the draft Czech government program includes a threat not to enact the rules: “In the case of ETS2 emission allowances for households and transport, we are prepared not to implement this system into Czech legislation and to prevent highly negative social impacts on society.” The draft also reveals that a future Babiš government views an EU ban on the sale and production of cars with combustion engines from 2035 as “unacceptable.” “The European Union has its limits — it does not have the right to impose decisions on member states that interfere with their internal sovereignty,” the draft reads. The ban was approved in 2023 by all member countries (despite last-minute resistance from Germany) but has proven controversial. Babiš is not alone in wanting to challenge EU Green Deal rules. The previous Czech government also requested a delay in ETS2 implementation, and Estonia called for it to be scrapped. Babiš may find an ally in Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who trumpeted his success in inserting a “revision clause” into the EU plans to extend a carbon-trading system at a leaders’ gathering last month.  While the revision clause demanded by EU leaders does not explicitly call for a weaker ETS2, Tusk believes it will open the door to a delay of the measure. Babiš intends to personally oversee EU policy — abolishing the role of minister for European affairs and placing responsibility for EU matters in a department “subordinate” to the prime minister. The parties in the coalition will be expected to sign off on the government program. Then comes a period of wrangling as Babiš is expected to try to install Filip Turek, the controversial honorary president of the Motorists’ party, as foreign minister — a move President Petr Pavel may oppose, according to an EU diplomat.  Czech news outlet Deník N reported last month that Turek — a former member of the European Parliament and racing driver — had made racist, sexist and homophobic comments on Facebook before entering politics. Turek denied being behind the posts in a video posted on Facebook.

The Dutch GreenLeft-Labor alliance has elected Jesse Klaver as its new leader to succeed Frans Timmermans after slumping to defeat in last week’s election. Timmermans resigned on election night immediately after exit polls put his party in fourth place with a loss of five seats — a major setback for a party that had been an election favorite ahead of the vote. “Sometimes, leadership means taking a step back,” Klaver, in a nod to his predecessor’s decision, said following his appointment Monday. “But sometimes you also have to take a step forward when the situation calls for it. That’s what I did today,” Klaver added, according to a local media report. Timmermans, a former European commissioner, quit Brussels politics in 2023 to return to the Dutch political scene and take the reins of the newly formed alliance between the GreenLeft and Labor parties. Klaver, who is 39, previously led the GreenLeft party and was Timmermans’ second-in-command over the past two years.  The centrist liberal D66 party is in pole position to form a new Dutch coalition after its narrow victory in the election. One possible coalition would include GreenLeft-Labor, as well as the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal and the conservative liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). That’s far from a done deal, however, as VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz had repeatedly ruled out governing with GreenLeft-Labor.

Catherine de Vries is Generali chair in European policies and professor at Bocconi University in Milan. Last week, Dutch voters rewarded the political center. The centrist-liberal D66 and center-right Christian Democratic Appeal benefited from a gowing appetite for stability, while the race for the largest party ended in a photo finish between D66 and Geert Wilders’s far-right Freedom Party. With no group receiving more than a fifth of the vote, upcoming coalition talks promise to be complicated, and a majority government before the holidays looks unlikely. As with so many recent elections across the continent, the EU was again the elephant in the room. Bloc-wide issues barely featured in the campaign ahead of the vote, yet the result could have far-reaching consequences for the Netherlands’ role in Brussels. What is already clear is that the Dutch electorate voted far more pro-European than it did in 2023. Indeed, it seems the Euroskepticism that once dominated the political mood has given way to a quiet mandate for cooperation and reform — an unmistakably pro-EU signal to The Hague. And if D66 leader Rob Jetten can succeed in becoming the party’s first prime minister, it would mark a decisive shift in the country’s policy toward the bloc. D66 has long been the most outspokenly pro-EU party across the Dutch political spectrum. Speaking to POLITICO after the election, Jetten argued that the Netherlands should use its veto power far less often and instead “say yes to cooperation more often.” “Europe risks stagnation if we fail to deepen integration. The Netherlands helped found the Union, now we should help shape its future,” he said. These words signal a clear break from the previous government of technocrat Dick Schoof, which had been largely invisible in Brussels. As Dutch broadcaster NOS recently reported, the country’s influence in the EU has “withered.” Or, as one senior EU diplomat bluntly put it: “No one listens to the Dutch anymore.” Schoof’s administration had begun with high expectations — exemptions on asylum, nitrogen and nature rules, and a lower contribution to the EU budget — but the reality in Brussels proved unforgiving. The Netherlands often found itself isolated, and its attempts to secure “opt-outs” were quietly abandoned. A Jetten premiership could reverse this pattern. Though similarly pragmatic, even Schoof’s predecessor Mark Rutte was ultimately cautious, wary of treaty reform and collective borrowing. But Jetten signals a readiness to go further, as D66 sees the Netherlands as a natural bridge-builder and a key player in European integration. Moreover, part of the Schoof government’s weakness was its lack of European experience. A technocrat without party backing, he struggled to build political capital in Brussels. Jetten, by contrast, is well-connected. Like Rutte, he belongs to Renew Europe group, the liberal alliance associated with French President Emmanuel Macron — a link that once amplified Dutch influence beyond its size. And if D66 leader Rob Jetten can succeed in becoming the party’s first prime minister, it would mark a decisive shift in the country’s policy toward the bloc. | Pierre Crom/Getty Images Of course, today even this network has become fragile. Macron’s domestic troubles have diminished his clout in Brussels, and with it, the gravitational pull of the liberal camp. Meanwhile, Brussels itself is more fragmented than ever. European politics has become a patchwork of competing national priorities, with southern members demanding more collective investment, northern countries — including the Netherlands — still preaching fiscal discipline, eastern members prioritizing defense and security, and western governments focused on industrial policy and competitiveness. Then, there are the external pressures to consider: The U.S. expects Europe to shoulder more of its own defense, while China is forcing the bloc to rethink its economic dependencies. In such a fragmented landscape, speaking with one European voice is hard enough — acting in unison is harder still. Ultimately, though, how the next Dutch government positions itself in this European maze, and Jetten’s ability to deliver, will largely depend on domestic politics and the coalition he can forge. The irony here is that if the center-left Green–Labor alliance or the Christian Democrats had emerged as the largest party, alignment with Europe’s dominant political currents might have been easier, finding natural allies in Spain’s Pedro Sánchez or German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But with D66 securing less than 20 percent of the vote, Jetten will have to govern in a broad coalition that includes parties far less enthusiastic about Europe. Still, even a Jetten-led coalition could boost Dutch influence precisely because it would span multiple European party families at once. In Brussels, where informal networks often matter just as much as votes, that could give the Netherlands renewed diplomatic weight. Facing the strategic dilemma of reconciling domestic compromise with European ambition, Jetten’s political style — pragmatic, conciliatory and consensus-driven — may also prove to be an asset here. During election-night coverage, one journalist even called him “the new Rutte” due to their shared instinct for timing and coalition-building. But Jetten couples this with a much clearer European vision. In his post-election remarks to POLITICO, the D66 leader left little room for doubt: “Europe must evolve into a serious democratic world power, with the means and authority to do what citizens expect — protect our borders from Putin, grow our economy and safeguard the climate,” he said. For years now, Dutch politics have been oscillating between pragmatic euro-realism and latent Euroskepticism. But this election may finally signal the pendulum’s slow return toward a more pro-Europe center, rooted in the quiet understanding that the Netherlands and the EU rise and fall together.

The centrist liberal D66 party has won the Dutch election, according to the national press agency ANP. Rob Jetten’s D66 and Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) emerged as the equal largest in Wednesday’s election with 26 parliament seats each, but with almost all votes counted, ANP said Friday that D66 could not be caught for first place. It’s a narrow victory, with the party just 15,155 votes ahead of the PVV, with 99.7 percent counted. The result means Jetten is in pole position to piece together a coalition government — a right typically reserved for the largest party — and to become the Netherlands’ prime minister if he succeeds.  D66 and the PVV finished ahead of the center-right liberals of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), which won 22 seats in Wednesday’s vote; the left-wing GreenLeft-Labor alliance, which secured 20 seats; and the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), which collected 18. Conservative JA21 is the largest of the smaller parties, with nine seats. Jetten has already made clear he sees the need for a broad coalition, as D66 is a “small large party” by Dutch standards, though caretaker Prime Minister Dick Schoof said Friday that the process won’t be quick. Forging a coalition could become tricky if it involves convincing the center-right VVD and the left-wing GreenLeft-Labor alliance to join the same government, after bitterly campaigning against one another. “Twenty-six seats after all, just like D66. Nobody beats the PVV. Absolutely nobody!” Wilders posted defiantly on X on Thursday. On Friday, he added that, “Whatever the outcome will be nationally, the PVV is once again the largest party in many provinces, including Limburg” — Wilders’ own province. His PVV was the largest party in the Netherlands’ previous coalition government. It was a Cabinet marked by infighting, which collapsed when Wilders withdrew his party over a dispute over asylum policy. The far-right firebrand has next to no chance of entering the next government as parties have ruled out joining forces with him. With the exception of the VVD, Wilders’ former coalition partners took a beating in Wednesday’s election: The populist Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) lost three of its seven seats; while the centrist New Social Contract was decimated, going from 20 seats in 2023 to zero now. This story has been updated.