PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron’s wife Brigitte apologized for being caught calling feminist activists sales connes — which roughly translates to “stupid bitches”— but said she should be able to speak her mind away from the cameras. Interviewed by online news outlet Brut, Macron insisted that her remarks were made in private — she was attending a show by comedian Ary Abittan, who had been accused of rape in a case which was later dismissed — and that she would not have used these words in public. “I’m sorry if I hurt female victims [of sexual assault],” Macron said. She then added: “I’m the president’s wife, but I’m also myself, and in a private context, I can let myself loose in a way which isn’t appropriate … people have the right to [freely] speak and think.” In a since-deleted clip published by gossip outlet Public, Macron is seen asking comedian Abittan, before his performance, how he is doing, to which he responds that he is “afraid,” likely referring to the possibility of protesters interrupting his show. The French first lady then responds: “If there are stupid bitches, we’ll toss them out.” A small group of activists wearing cardboard masks with Abittan’s face attempted to interrupt a show in Paris, yelling “Abittan rapist” while being pushed back by security, video published by French outlet Le Média showed. Macron’s comments drew outrage from French politicians, feminist organizations and film industry celebrities alike. The hashtag #JeSuisUneSaleConne (#IAmAStupidBitch), launched in solidarity with the protesters, was shared by several high-profile figures, including Judith Godrèche — a French actress who has played a central role in confronting sexual violence in the film industry — and Oscar winner Marion Cotillard. Abittan is on his first tour since investigating judges decided not to charge him with a crime after he was accused of rape. While the plaintiff was found to have suffered post-traumatic stress, justice officials said they could not establish sufficient grounds to determine that the sexual encounter had been forced. Abittan has denied wrongdoing and said the act was consensual.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Die europäische Sicherheitslage steht heute im Mittelpunkt. Mark Rutte, der NATO-Generalsekretär, kommt nach Berlin und trifft den Kanzler. Für Friedrich Merz ist dieses Gespräch zentral, denn es hängt die Frage über allem, wie sich Europa verteidigen soll, wenn Washington sich weiter zurückzieht. Gordon Repinski ordnet ein, welche Erwartungen an das Treffen geknüpft sind und welche Rolle eingefrorene russische Vermögen für die Ukraine dabei spielen Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht Franziska Brantner, Co-Vorsitzende der Grünen, über die Verteidigungsfähigkeit Europas. Sie erklärt, warum die Europäer Sicherheitsgarantien für die Ukraine vorbereiten müssen und weshalb eine kleinere Gruppe schneller vorangehen sollte. Im Anschluss berichtet Marion Soletty von POLITICO in Frankreich zu den Gesprächen zwischen Verteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius und seiner neuen französischen Amtskollegin Catherine Vautrin. Das FCAS-Projekt, ein gemeinsamer Kampfjet, steckt fest. Es geht um industrielle Führungsansprüche zwischen Dassault und Airbus und um die Frage, ob noch in diesem Jahr eine Einigung möglich ist. Am Ende ein Blick in die SPD, wo Generalsekretär Tim Klüssendorf mit einer wirtschaftsfreundlichen Rede überrascht und bei Arbeitgebern Zustimmung findet. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. Legal Notice (Belgium) POLITICO SRL Forme sociale: Société à Responsabilité Limitée Siège social: Rue De La Loi 62, 1040 Bruxelles Numéro d’entreprise: 0526.900.436 RPM Bruxelles info@politico.eu www.politico.eu

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. It all looked rather bleak for France a little over a week ago, as President Emmanuel Macron’s former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe seemingly wrecked his successor’s deficit-cutting strategy. While Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was working toward a deal with the Socialists in his country’s fractured National Assembly, the 34 centrist lawmakers of Philippe’s Horizons party unceremoniously announced they would abstain or oppose the government in a key vote on the social security budget set to be held Tuesday evening. The eventual narrow win in favor of a relatively generous social security budget, covering pensions, health and welfare, is thus a godsend for Macron’s embattled prime minister — turns out, he may just survive. However, it doesn’t guarantee an agreement on the main state budget before the Dec. 23 deadline, and Lecornu will likely struggle to deliver another surprise victory over the next two weeks. Ahead of Tuesday evening’s final tally, the prime minister made a string of last-minute concessions to the Socialists and the Greens on health spending to get their votes or abstentions. And he eventually succeeded in securing a small majority by 247 to 234 votes. However, to keep next year’s welfare deficit below €20 billion — already up from the €17.5 billion originally proposed — Lecornu transferred an extra subsidy of at least €4.5 billion from the main budget, which covers everything from education to defense. And it remains unclear where exactly this money will be found, while still meeting the government’s promise to reduce France’s overall deficit from 5.4 percent of gross domestic product to “below 5 percent” next year. Still, Lecornu hopes his unlikely success with the social security budget in the National Assembly will create momentum for a deal on the main budget. Moreover, Tuesday’s victory — though limited and hard fought — is without precedent. No previous budget in France’s Fifth Republic has been negotiated and agreed on by an ad hoc coalition of government and opposition. So, as attention now turns to the main state budget, Lecornu’s balancing act will prove even trickier. | Julien De Rosa/AFP via Getty Images The problem is, the prime minister’s concessions to the moderate left — abolishing a planned freeze on pensions and welfare payments, boosting a 2 percent planned increase in health spending to 3 percent, and suspending pension reform — infuriated two of the four parties in his fragile centrist coalition. So, as attention now turns to the main state budget, Lecornu’s balancing act will prove even trickier. Upon its first reading in the National Assembly, this budget was rejected by 404 votes to one. And the French leader will be hard-pressed to find concessions for the moderate left, appease his coalition and keep his promise to reduce the deficit. As France’s third prime minister in the last 12 months, Lecornu has no majority in a National Assembly that’s currently split into 11 groups. In order to avoid a censure motion, he has also promised not to use his government’s special constitutional powers (Article 49.3) to impose legislation without a parliamentary vote, and has so far rejected pressure from within his own camp to reverse that decision. Simply put, using this power and facing censure is not a risk Lecornu is likely to take — especially since he wouldn’t resign if he lost the upcoming budget vote. He would instead argue the rejected budget deal was an attempted compromise and not his responsibility alone. Paradoxically, part of Lecornu’s problem is that he’s now expected to survive. Previously, the center, center right and Socialists agreed to abstain from voting, as they feared a government collapse and snap parliamentary elections in January, right before the important municipal elections in March. But now that this fear has subsided, Philippe and the center right can take the risk of wrecking the budget deal. To that end, Lecornu and his government are now preparing emergency legislation to roll over this year’s budget to keep the French state operational, and lawmakers have been warned they may be called in for a special session to pass such a stopgap budget in late December. According to the ministry of finance, though, if a rolled-over 2025 budget were to last throughout next year, it would push France’s deficit beyond 6 percent of GDP. In fact, even a delay of two or three months could, in theory, significantly weaken efforts to reduce the budget deficit, as under French law, authorities can’t retroactively apply any tax increases that lawmakers eventually approve. Still, it would at least allow Lecornu to hang on and fight another day. But the outlook for France is looking no brighter than before.

National Rally leader Jordan Bardella is insisting he doesn’t need help from U.S. President Donald Trump to shape France’s political future as his far-right party guns for the presidency in 2027. “I’m French, so I’m not happy with vassalage, and I don’t need a big brother like Trump to consider the fate of my country,” he said in an interview with The Telegraph published late Tuesday. Concern over potential U.S. involvement in European far-right politics has spiked since last week’s publication of America’s National Security Strategy, in which Washington advocates “cultivating resistance” to boost the nationalist surge in Europe. That puts Bardella in a tricky spot. Broadly he agrees with Trump’s anti-migrant vision, as mapped out in the strategy, but is wary of direct U.S. involvement in a country where polling suggests Trump is very unpopular. The National Rally is not directly embracing U.S. Republicans, as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is doing. Bardella said he “shared [Trump’s] assessment for the most part” in an interview with the BBC’s Political Thinking podcast. “It is true that mass immigration and the laxity of our leaders … are today disrupting the power balance of European societies,” Bardella said. Bardella’s interview came during a trip to London in which he met Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who once tied Bardella’s party to “prejudice and anti-Semitism.” “I think that Farage will be the next prime minister,” Bardella told the Telegraph, praising “a great patriot who has always defended the interests of Britain and the British people.”

French President Emmanuel Macron’s wife Brigitte sparked outrage after calling feminist protesters sales connes — roughly translated as “stupid bitches” — backstage at a comedy show. In a since-deleted clip published by gossip outlet Public, Brigitte Macron is seen asking comedian Ary Abittan before his performance how he is doing, to which the former responds that he is “afraid,” likely referencing the possibility of protesters interrupting his show. Abittan is on his first tour since investigating judges decided not to charge him with a crime after he was accused of rape. While the plaintiff was found to have suffered post-traumatic stress, justice officials said they could not establish sufficient grounds to determine that the sexual encounter had been forced. Abittan has denied wrongdoing and said the act was consensual. After Abittan said he was afraid, the French first lady responded: “if there are stupid bitches, we’ll toss them out.” Abittan’s return was protested by the feminist group Nous Toutes, whose members disrupted the show to denounce what they called a “communication campaign aimed at portraying him as a traumatized person while humiliating and belittling the victim.” In a statement to French newswire AFP published Monday, Macron’s office said the remark should be understood as “criticism of the radical methods used by those who disrupted and obstructed Ary Abittan’s show.” Condemnation came from political figures across party lines, as well as activists and film industry professionals. Marine Tondelier, head of the French Greens, called the remark “extremely grave” and conservative Senator Agnès Evren described it as “very sexist.” Prisca Thévenot, a lawmaker from the president’s party and former government spokesperson, deemed the comment “inelegant.” “When it comes to women fighting against violence against women, we don’t speak that way,” former President François Hollande said Tuesday on RTL. Judith Godrèche, the French actress who has played a central role in confronting sexual violence in the film industry, took to Instagram to criticize Macron. “I too am a stupid bitch. And I support all the others,” she wrote.

Paul Dallison writes Declassified, a weekly satirical column. Looking for a Christmas gift for someone who is a) interested in French politics and b) loves often poor writing? Then fear not, because Nicolas Sarkozy’s prison memoir is here! The former French president’s “Diary of a Prisoner” comes to all good prison libraries and bookstores on Dec. 10, but POLITICO has an advance copy and has read it despite common sense dictating it was a terrible idea. As a reminder, Sarkozy (prison number 320535) spent 20 days in prison, and his book is 216 pages long — that’s just under 11 pages per day of incarceration. Sarkozy, 70, was imprisoned after being found guilty of allowing “close collaborators” and “unofficial intermediaries” to try to obtain funding from Moammar Gadhafi’s regime in Libya for his 2007 presidential run. That made him the first former French head of state to end up behind bars since Nazi collaborator Philippe Pétain. “I want to make it clear that this is not a novel,” Sarkozy writes in the intro, thereby dashing any lingering hope that the book might have an interesting narrative arc rather than being an account of one man’s stay in jail for less than three weeks with two bodyguards in the cell next door. In terms of suspense, there’s little, as Sarkozy describes his prison cell as being like a “low-end hotel.” Although that, of course, relies on the reader’s believing that Sarkozy has ever stayed in an Ibis budget hotel (breakfast not included, with a view of the car park). Sarkozy’s acclimation to life behind bars provides quite an insight into a man who has enjoyed the wealth and trappings of fame. Early on he tries to open a window and “immediately regretted it” because of the noise it caused. “A prisoner was relentlessly striking the bars of his cell with a metal object. This racket lasted several minutes. It seemed endless to me. The atmosphere was threatening. Welcome to hell!” It’s unclear if the bar-striking prisoner was also the “neighboring inmate [who] spent part of his time singing ‘The Lion King’ and the other part pounding on the bars of his cell with a spoon.” Here’s hoping it wasn’t a soup spoon, as that would have been a massive faux pas. Thankfully, despite the noise and the inadequacy of the bed — “I had never felt a harder mattress, not even during my military service” while “the pillows were made of a strange material, perhaps plastic, and the blankets were blankets in name only” — Sarkozy managed to sleep until 7 a.m. his first night behind bars. That’s despite knowing that “my future neighbors would be, depending on the case, Islamist terrorists, rapists, murderers, or drug traffickers. A delightful prospect!” There are some lovely details in the book, including that Sarkozy’s cell had been adapted for “inmates with reduced mobility, for example, people in wheelchairs.” As a result, “the mirror was firmly fixed to the wall at a height that allowed me to clearly see all the details of the belt of my trousers. On the other hand, I had to bend double to comb my hair or trim my beard.” Thank goodness Sarkozy is only 1.65 meters tall (or 5 feet 5 inches, if you prefer), quite a bit below the average in France. We also get details of the daily routine. “Wake up early. Make the bed immediately. Wash, shave, dress properly. No pajamas, no negligence.” That would make a great Sarkozy family motto: Sine pyjamatibus, sine negligentia. Lunch is delivered at a scandalously early 11:30 a.m., “and I truly had no appetite. I don’t think I missed much by declining the meal offered in small plastic trays, which, without meaning any offense to whoever had prepared them, were not very appealing.” He later says the smell of the food trays made him feel “nauseous” and decries the “soggy baguette” offered at lunchtime. To be fair, that does sound awful. Sarkozy’s wife Carla Bruni’s “first words upon waking were: ‘What a nightmare! What have we done to deserve all this horror?'” — which is definitely how ordinary people speak. | Henrique Campos/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images He spends the day reading. Before his incarceration Sarkozy told Le Figaro that he would be taking with him a copy of Alexandre Dumas’ “The Count of Monte Cristo” — the story of a man who escapes prison after being falsely accused of treason and locked up without trial — along with a biography of Jesus Christ by Jean-Christian Petitfils (which tells the story of, well, you probably know how that one goes). But there is the customary exercise break. “The walks in the courtyard were surreal,” Sarkozy writes. “There were few words exchanged. Each man remained locked in his own thoughts, his own story. Pain has a way of making people silent. Suffering rarely likes noise.” Unless you’re banging a spoon against the bars of the cell while singing “Circle of Life.” He uses the gym equipment daily, imagining himself running in the forest of Saint-Léger-en-Yvelines or the seashore of Cap Nègre. Alas, the post-workout shower was a challenge. “Perhaps out of fear that an inmate might hang himself, there was no showerhead, only a thin trickle of water.” He adds: “The worst part was that this thin stream of water stopped very quickly, like a timer. You constantly had to find the button and press it” — which sounds like the showers in any given public swimming pool. Before we get to the time in prison, there are precious moments of pre-prison life. His wife Carla Bruni’s “first words upon waking were: ‘What a nightmare! What have we done to deserve all this horror?'” — which is definitely how ordinary people speak. Sarkozy also writes about his meeting with current President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace, days before he headed to jail. “I had nothing to say to him and had little desire for a friendly chat.” Macron, however, told Sarkozy that he would have him transferred to another, supposedly safer, prison. Sarkozy was having none of it and refused “preferential treatment” — apart from the bodyguards next door. Bruni is a regular visitor, of course, but Sarkozy reveals that former Prime Minister Michel Barnier also requested a visit. Having been the EU’s point man on Brexit, Barnier is used to dealing with impossibly grim conditions. Lots of other political figures get a mention. Sarkozy thanks far-right leader Marine Le Pen for her support, and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon for not saying anything. But he slams his electoral opponent Ségolène Royal for “claiming, without a hint of irony, that she lost the 2007 election because of Gadhafi’s money!” and says former Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau “called me regularly, but did nothing more publicly.” Thankfully, after these 20 days of “hell,” Sarkozy’s appeal is held and he is released from prison and able to start penning his jailhouse diaries — just in time for them to become a Christmas best-seller (maybe).

French President Emmanuel Macron stressed the need for “unity” between Europe and the United States on Ukraine when asked about reports that he said Washington could be about to “betray” Kyiv in a private call with European leaders.  “I’ve seen all the rumors in the last few days,” Macron told reporters on a trip to Chengdu alongside Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “Unity between Americans and Europeans on the Ukrainian issue is essential … We need to work together. We must work together.” Macron was responding to questions about an alleged leaked transcript obtained by Der Spiegel of a call on Monday between Macron and other European leaders. The German magazine reported that the French president warned of “a great danger” for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid U.S.-brokered peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.   When asked about the story, an Elysée official, granted anonymity to adhere to standard professional protocol in France, stressed Thursday that Macron’s office released its own summary of the exchange “in which this word [betray] does not figure.” Macron struck a more sanguine note on Friday, saying Washington was a welcome partner in the ongoing peace talks and that Europe and the U.S. “must not give in to any spirit of division” on Ukraine.  “We welcome and support the peace efforts made by the United States of America,” he added. “The United States of America needs Europeans to lead its peace efforts because this is happening on the European continent.” Monday’s call took place after the Trump administration circulated a 28-point peace plan — reportedly drafted with input from the Kremlin, along with Washington envoys Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner — that was criticized by Ukraine and European allies for being too favorable to Russia.  Subsequent talks in Geneva, attended by European, Ukrainian and American officials, yielded an updated 19-point plan, which Russia has yet to agree to. 

French President Emmanuel Macron warned the U.S. could be about to “betray” Ukraine, according to a leaked transcript of a call between European leaders strategizing about how to protect Kyiv.   The details of the phone call — which took place Monday and involved Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and others — were published by German newspaper Der Spiegel and saw the leaders discussing U.S.-led peace negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow.   “There is a possibility that the U.S. will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Macron said, according to Spiegel, adding there was “a great danger” for Zelenskyy. The Élysée did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s request for comment. Spiegel reported the Élysée denied in a statement to the German outlet that Macron spoke of any betrayal. “The president did not use those words,” Macron’s office said, per Spiegel.  Merz chimed in that Zelenskyy had to be “extremely careful in the coming days.”  “They are playing games, both with you and with us,” Merz said, seemingly referring to Washington’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — the son-in-law of American President Donald Trump — who spent five hours locked in talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Merz’s spokesperson Stefan Kornelius told POLITICO: “As a matter of principle, I do not confirm or comment on snippets of conversation.”  Finland’s Stubb seemed to agree with Merz, according to the transcript. “We cannot leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys,” he said, apparently referring to Witkoff and Kushner, which attracted agreement from Rutte.  “I agree with Alexander — we must protect Volodymyr [Zelenskyy],” the NATO chief said. NATO declined to comment when reached by POLITICO. The call took place after the Trump administration circulated a 28-point peace plan — reportedly drafted by the Kremlin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, Witkoff and Kushner — that was criticized by Ukraine and European allies for being too favorable to Russia, and triggered frenzied negotiations in Geneva.  Those subsequent talks, attended by European, Ukrainian and American officials, yielded an updated 19-point plan, which Russia has yet to agree to. Moscow has not backed down from its maximalist demands, namely that Kyiv give up vast swathes of unoccupied territory in its east, limit the size of its military and hold new elections. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and European Council President António Costa also participated in Monday’s call, according to Spiegel. The call also saw the issue of Russia’s frozen assets discussed, Spiegel reported, with some leaders insisting that seizing Moscow’s billions to fund a massive tranche of financial and military aid for Ukraine was a matter for the EU to decide, not the U.S. Victor Jack and Joshua Berlinger contributed reporting.

PARIS — France is at risk of ending the year without a budget deal as former French Prime Minister and current presidential candidate Edouard Philippe shapes up to be a major obstacle to the current government, despite their nominal alliance. One French minister couldn’t hold back their shock when they found out Tuesday that Philippe’s Horizons party and its 34 lawmakers would either abstain or vote against the social security budget next week — a dangerous sign that the risk of France going into 2026 without a proper fiscal plan is increasing by the day. “What an asshole,” muttered the minister, a conservative granted anonymity to candidly share views on the state of French politics. “It’s insane … we’re not going to have a budget.” Lawmakers must get serious about shaving the deficits of next year’s social security budget and the state budget, a separate piece of legislation, if they want to convince markets that the European Union’s second-largest economy has not become an ungovernable nation hurtling toward a debt crisis. France is currently sitting on €3.4 trillion in debt and is seeking to bring down a budget deficit expected to come in at 5.4 percent of gross domestic product this year. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said that next year’s budget that next year’s budget will reduce that figure to no more than 5 percent. Someone close to Lecornu’s team, also granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the head of government knows Philippe is staking out a political position and was not willing to give the PM free rein, but “that doesn’t mean [Philippe] has to ruin the budget.” Philippe, President Emmanuel Macron’s first prime minister, announced Tuesday that Horizons had unanimously agreed it could not support the social security bill because it did not do enough to cut the budget deficit. Edouard Philippe said that Horizons had unanimously agreed it could not support the social security bill because it did not do enough to cut the budget deficit. | Christophe Archambault/Getty Images Though the party controls only 34 of the National Assembly’s 577 seats, that small bloc could prove decisive in a vote in France’s fractured parliament. Lecornu’s ability to shape legislation is hampered by both those divisions and his vow not to use a constitutional backdoor to pass his budget, a promise he made in October to ensure his government was not toppled. Now, however, rumblings are growing louder that Lecornu has made a strategic error depriving him of a key tool needed to avert budgetary chaos — even if at the time it helped ensured his survival. Conservative leader Bruno Retailleau, a former minister who served in previous minority governments during Macron’s second term, urged Lecornu in a radio interview to go back on his word and trigger the constitutional clause, Article 49.3, to pass “a budget aligned with our nation’s interest.” Such a move would be risky too, as lawmakers are allowed to respond to the triggering of Article 49.3 by putting forward a motion of no confidence. That’s what they did last year when then–Prime Minister Michel Barnier tried to ram through his own social security legislation, and Barnier was ousted. Whatever happens in the coming days, the risk of a U.S.-style shutdown is minimal. Lawmakers can pass legislation to roll over the 2025 state budget into next year. To keep the country’s social safety net solvent, MPs can pass ad hoc legislation approving short-term borrowing and treasury advances until a proper bill is adopted. Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon insisted that each individual MP would be responsible for the outcome of the vote, not just political groups. “There’s is no plan B,” Bregeon said at a press conference on Tuesday.

PARIS — Two polar opposite personalities from France’s fractured left are fighting to emerge as the candidate to stop the dominant far right under Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella from winning the presidency in 2027. It’s still about 17 months until an election that threatens to upend the European Union, but a very public battle is already raging between the old-school radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the polished pro-NATO more center-leaning Raphaël Glucksmann. It’s a bruising clash, and several observers tracking the presidential race predict the depth of animosity between the two men could further split the left — sapping the possibility of victory in 2027 — rather than establishing a consensus candidate for the crucial second round of the race for the Elysée. Unless one manages to completely overshadow the other, the left will be locked in a civil war for the coming year. “Past presidential elections have shown that two candidates can’t coexist on the left without causing trouble for each other,” said Erwan Lestrohan, research director at French polling institute Odoxa. The two men could hardly be more different. Mélenchon is a 74-year-old hardliner who has run for president three times, nearly making the runoff in 2022 with a campaign calling for hiking the minimum wage, lowering the retirement age to 60 and pulling out of NATO. Glucksmann, 46, is an MEP and staunch supporter of bolstering Europe’s military power. He is also open to billions of euros worth of spending cuts to bring France’s messy public finances into line and believes the country’s contentious pension system should be rebuilt. Given those ideological fault lines, the tone of the contest has unsurprisingly descended into mudslinging. On his preferred communication outlet — his blog — Mélenchon has described Glucksmann as a “fanatic warmonger” and “the darling child of media vacuity.” Punching back on social media and in interviews, Glucksmann has called Mélenchon “a phony patriot who prefers the Kremlin’s spin” and has framed their showdown as a struggle for “a vision of democracy,” accusing the leader of the hard-left France Unbowed party of rose-tinted views of authoritarian regimes in Moscow and Beijing. PERIL IN THE POLLS Over recent weeks, poll after poll has suggested the far right could well have to face a leftist in a run-off in the spring of 2027. “There’s a solid prospect of having a left-wing candidate make the second round,” Lestrohan said. For Mélenchon or Glucksmann, reaching the run-off would be a huge moment. They would have a shot not only at taking the Elysée, but also at shaping the future of the French left — joining the likes of Jean Jaurès and François Mitterrand in the country’s pantheon of progressive icons. More likely for now, however, is the prospect of becoming the first presidential candidate in modern French history to lose to the far right. Neither looks on course to win a second round against the National Rally’s Bardella — seen as a probable runner because of a ban on Le Pen. . Mélenchon is a 74-year-old hardliner who has run for president three times, nearly making the runoff in 2022. | Jerome Gilles/Getty Images A year and a half ahead of the vote, Glucksmann appears to be a stronger second-round candidate. According to an Odoxa poll released last week he is seen as losing by a margin of 42 percent to 58 percent to Bardella, while Mélenchon is seen as losing in a 26 percent to 74 percent landslide. All prospective candidates from the center-right coalition currently in power look set to be wiped out in the first round, except for Édouard Philippe — President Emmanuel Macron’s first prime minister after his 2017 election — though his polling numbers have steadily declined over the past year. SUBSTANCE AND STRATEGY With radically different views come radically different strategies. Glucksmann is convinced the left can win by luring back moderates and former Socialists who ditched the party for Macron’s centrist movement in 2017. An Ipsos survey showed that Glucksmann managed to attract 17 percent of voters who had previously voted for Macron when he led a joint list with the center-left Socialist Party and finished a convincing third in the last European election in 2024. Mélenchon, meanwhile, believes the decisive votes lie in working-class urban areas where turnout is low, but where those who do cast ballots have rallied behind him en masse over the last several electoral cycles. True to his slow-and-steady philosophy — Mélenchon likes to call himself an “electoral turtle” and keeps figurines of the hard-shelled reptile in his office — he has increased his vote share in each Elysée run despite a cantankerous temper. Both approaches have their merits and shortcomings.  Mélenchon could be dragged down by his image as a divisive firebrand, Lestrohan said. “As for Raphaël Glucksmann, his vulnerability stems more from the fact that he is still relatively unknown, and that we do not yet know how capable he is of campaigning, promoting ideas, and, above all, asserting himself in the face of opposition,” said Lestrohan. That concern about Glucksmann has already begun to spread within the Socialist Party’s ranks. While the party backed the MEP in the last two European races, the idea of promoting a candidate from outside their party — Glucksmann leads his own political platform, Place Publique — has drawn skepticism from some Socialists. After a weeks-long media absence, Glucksmann reemerged into the public eye last month when he faced off in a debate with far-right former presidential candidate Éric Zemmour. Glucksmann’s performance was widely viewed as a disappointment — including by Glucksmann himself, who acknowledged he “could have done better.” Raphael Glucksmann, 46, is an MEP and staunch supporter of bolstering Europe’s military power. | Laurent Coust/Getty Images “There’s a scenario in which this all turns into a nightmare,” a Socialist adviser opposed to Glucksmann’s candidacy, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO. “Glucksmann will get crushed by a political beast like Mélenchon. But there’s no chance Mélenchon can come out ahead against Bardella.” US VS. THEM Indeed, although Mélenchon enjoys the support of a loyal core, he garners the highest share of negative opinions of any French politician — even more than Macron — and is vilified by opponents, who accuse him of pushing antisemitic tropes in the context of his pro-Palestinian rhetoric and of defending extremist views. High-ranking members of Mélenchon’s France Unbowed have brushed off his weakness in recent polls, insisting their electorate only tends to mobilize later in campaigns and that the National Rally tends to lose support when the prospect of a far-right victory becomes concrete. “It is impossible to predict what will happen in the second round. Voters never want to decide on scenarios that do not suit them,” said France Unbowed lawmaker and national coordinator Manuel Bompard. “Only when the choice becomes mandatory” do actual voting intentions emerge, he added. Bompard and other party leaders point to last summer’s snap general election in France, which the National Rally was expected to win before finishing an underwhelming third as voters mobilized across party lines to block its path. Back in January 2012, when he launched his first presidential bid, Mélenchon predicted that “in the end, it’ll be between us and them,” with “them” being the far right. Danièle Obono, a prominent France Unbowed lawmaker, said that prophecy still looked likely to come true. “There’s an opposition between our left and the far right … it’s class warfare expressed through the ballot box. This is a moment when the people want a major shake-up that leaves space for either us [the hard left] or them [the far right],” Obono said. Glucksmann’s troops beg to differ. After the release of last week’s poll showing Bardella winning the presidential election, Aurélien Rousseau, a Place Publique lawmaker, took to X. “We knew it, but now it’s clear politically: the RN can win the presidential election,” he said. “On the left, the line held by [Glucksmann] is currently the only one capable of leading the fight.”