FRENCH FAR RIGHT CLAIMS MOMENTUM FOR PRESIDENCY AFTER LOCAL ELECTIONS Marine Le Pen’s National Rally failed to win big target cities such as Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes, but the party still thinks it has the upper hand nationwide. By CLEA CAULCUTT in Paris POLITICO illustration. The far-right National Rally may not have won the string of big target cities it was hoping for in France’s local election on Sunday, but its leaders said they had still built up a grassroots momentum that would propel them to victory in next year’s presidential contest. The 2027 presidential election is seen as a decisive moment for the EU as the Euroskeptic and NATO-skeptic National Rally is the current favorite to win the race for the Elysée. This week’s municipal elections are being closely scrutinized to gauge whether Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration party is still France’s predominant political force. All in all, it was a mixed night for the far right. Its biggest victory came on the Riviera, where one of its allies won Nice, France’s fifth-biggest city. The National Rally had also campaigned hard in other significant southern cities such as Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes. It performed well in all of them but was beaten into second place. The races were close in Toulon and Nîmes, and Le Pen’s party won 40 percent of the vote in Marseille — a considerable share in France’s diverse and cosmopolitan second city. Putting a positive spin on the results, the party leaders stressed that they had won numerous smaller and mid-sized cities and towns, particularly in their southern heartlands, such as Carcassonne, Agde and Menton — adding to the first-round victory in Perpignan last week. National Rally President Jordan Bardella told supporters in Paris the far right had achieved the “biggest breakthrough of its history,” and was seizing “a strong momentum” that signaled “the end of an old world running out of steam.” National Rally mayoral candidate Laure Lavalette casts her ballot during the second round of France’s 2026 municipal elections in Toulon on March 22, 2026. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images National Rally leader Le Pen meanwhile hailed “dozens” of regional victories and “a strategy of local implantation” that was working. STRONG NATIONWIDE, WEAKER IN BIG CITIES The National Rally’s argument is that traditional parties, particularly on the left, are strong in the big cities but that these do not fully reflect the wider national political currents, which are running toward the right. In Paris, for example, the National Rally candidate and MEP Thierry Mariani scored a dismal 1.6 percent of the vote in the first round on March 15, but nationwide Bardella is still the favorite for next year’s presidential election.   A Harris Interactive poll conducted after Sunday’s municipal elections confirmed Bardella’s position as frontrunner ahead of the 2027 race. Bardella would get 35 percent of the vote in the first round of voting, the survey said, 17 points ahead of the center-right contender, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. Still, the municipal election results will definitely reignite concerns among National Rally strategists about whether they really can win in a second round next year, given that the tradition of uniting against the far right in runoffs — something that helped crush Le Pen’s presidential bids in 2017 and 2022 — was on full display on Sunday. In the Mediterranean port city of Toulon, Laure Lavalette, a high-profile National Rally politician and close Le Pen ally, had a promising start in the first round of voting, winning 42 percent of the vote, 13 points ahead of the incumbent conservative mayor Josée Massi. But in Sunday’s runoff, Massi pulled ahead, benefitting from the withdrawal of a conservative candidate. The National Rally had hoped that its swell of support could break that second-round Achilles heel in these municipal elections but this perennial electoral vulnerability — that it is the party everyone gangs up against — looks set to persist. NO RESPITE FOR BARDELLA’S RIVALS The National Rally’s rivals are certainly not dismissing the far right because of its losses in the bigger cities on Sunday. Gabriel Attal, presidential hopeful and leader of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, said Sunday’s results showed a rise of the extremes, referring to not just the far-right National Rally but also the far-left France Unbowed, which won in the northeastern city of Roubaix and in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis. “It’s a warning signal,” he said. “More and more citizens, who voted for them, want things to change, and to change more quickly.” For the conservative Les Républicains, Sunday’s elections were bittersweet. The right won the mayoral jobs in several mid-sized cities including Limoges, Tulle, Brest and Clermont-Ferrand. In France’s fourth city, Toulouse, a former conservative Jean-Luc Moudenc saw off a far-left challenger from France Unbowed, backed by a left-wing coalition. Les Républicains leader Bruno Retailleau on Sunday claimed the right was “the Number One local political force” in France. Les Républicains candidate Rachida Dati at a campaign rally after the announcement of her defeat in the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal elections on March 22, 2026. | Ian Langsdon/AFP via Getty Images But the right was wiped out in Paris, where former Culture Minister Rachida Dati lost to the Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire. And in France’s second-largest city Lyon, the conservative candidate Jean-Michel Aulas, a former football club owner, lost by a narrow margin to the Green incumbent mayor. Retailleau sought to cast the conservatives as the force that could appeal to voters wanting to shut out the extremes, and slammed the National Rally as “demagogues.” There is “a French way, expressed by millions of fellow citizens who want neither the social chaos of [France Unbowed] or the budgetary disorder that the [National Rally’s] economic manifesto would bring about,” he said.  But the Les Républicains party has several presidential hopefuls and no clear path to decide which one will represent them in the presidential race. On Sunday, conservative heavyweights were already calling for the right to agree on a candidate against Bardella. This race for a single candidate to emerge in the middle ground is also likely to accelerate because former Prime Minister Philippe, buoyed by his victory against a strong Communist challenger in Le Havre in Normandy, will now be looking to promote his candidacy. Bardella, by contrast, simply tried to present the National Rally’s onward progression toward the Élysée as inevitable. Borrowing a phrase from former President François Mitterrand’s campaign in 1981 to end the right’s dominance in France, Bardella said the National Rally was now “a tranquil force.” “Our successes are not an achievement, but a beginning,” he said. Laura Kayali contributed reporting.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. France’s municipal elections were never meant to be a dress rehearsal for its next presidential race. And yet, the first round of voting on March 15 was exactly that, offering a revealing and deeply paradoxical snapshot of a politically fractured country. At first glance, the results seemed to confirm the prevailing narrative: That Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) remains the dominant force in French politics, with national opinion polls giving the party a commanding 19-point lead ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. But the reality beneath these headlines is more complicated — and perhaps more fragile. First, the RN’s first-round performance was uneven at best. It did make some advances: It remains competitive in Marseille, leads in Toulon, and most importantly is poised to capture Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, in the second round this coming Sunday. However, analysts have pointed out that the city’s mayoral candidate Eric Ciotti — a former president of the center-right Republicans — only recently joined the RN and made a point of distancing himself from the far-right party throughout his campaign. Furthermore, these gains fell short of both the party’s and pollsters’ expectations. In fact, in most of France’s major urban centers like Paris, Lyon, Toulouse, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg and Bordeaux, the RN scored less than 8 percent. The party’s struggles in these big cities suggest that for all its national appeal, it still encounters resistance when voters are asked to entrust it with an actual mandate to govern. French voters may flirt with the far right in theory, but in practice many remain cautious. The most surprising development, meanwhile, was the performance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard-left France Unbowed movement, which exceeded expectations across the country. The party captured Saint-Denis, is likely to win Roubaix, and gave a strong performance in cities like Toulouse and Lille. It appears this surge was driven, at least in part, by geopolitical developments — specifically the war in Iran. Based on impressions on the ground, heightened anti-war sentiment seems to have mobilized both the Muslim and young hard-left voters who form the party’s base. The implications of this are significant: Many had written Mélenchon off after a series of scandals and a dip in national polling. But these successes suggest he may yet play an important role in shaping the presidential elections — again — making it difficult for a more moderate left candidate to emerge and possibly even reaching the final run-off alongside the far right. Meanwhile, France’s traditional parties — the center-left Socialists and center-right Republicans — continue to display an unexpected resilience at the local level, despite being nationally sidelined since 2017. Together they dominated a majority of towns, including many of the country’s largest cities, remaining deeply embedded in municipal politics. By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist movement remains conspicuously weak, having failed to establish a meaningful municipal base after nearly a decade in power. It’s an absence that helps explain the lack of a clear anti-incumbent wave, as voters had limited opportunities to express dissatisfaction with the government at the local ballot box given the relatively few centrist mayors they could unseat. Finally, amid this fragmented field, the one figure that stands out is former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. Philippe’s strong showing in Le Havre — where he secured 43 percent of the vote in the first round — comfortably positions him for reelection. And out of the large pack of candidates trailing behind the far right in the presidential polls, he now looks to be the strongest (though marginally) and most experienced contender. Philippe had previously said he would abandon his national ambitions if he lost the mayoral race, but a good win on Sunday could easily relaunch his flagging national campaign. The second round of municipal elections will, of course, be crucial. A strong showing by the RN — particularly if the party is able to capture Marseille and Toulon — could restore its momentum and reinforce its performance at the national level. But in such an uncertain environment, next year’s race is far from decided. And what the first round of municipal results really reveal isn’t so much a country marching in one direction as one pulled in several at once, searching — perhaps uneasily — for a new political equilibrium.

PARIS — Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon is emerging from this month’s municipal elections as France’s chief political disrupter, building momentum he hopes will turn him into the leading contender against the far right in next year’s presidential race. The nightmare scenario for France’s beleaguered center left, however, is that Mélenchon would make for a highly divisive presidential candidate, and polling suggests he could ultimately gift a win to the far-right National Rally in 2027. The 74-year-old former teacher took a highly abrasive, confrontational approach to the local elections — stoking controversy with his unapologetic response to the killing of a far-right activist, and later with comments that were condemned as antisemitic. But this pugnacious strategy — slammed by his critics as a “brutalization” of politics — seems to have paid off, with his France Unbowed party winning big in key target areas like working-class and immigrant communities in Sunday’s first round. Mélenchon has hailed his results as a “magnificent breakthrough.” France Unbowed won the poor, diverse city of Saint-Denis in the suburbs of Paris outright, and he looks well-placed to win mayoral contests in the northeastern city of Roubaix and in France’s fourth-largest city, Toulouse. DIVISIVE LEADER Mélenchon’s performance now looks set to have major consequences across France’s political landscape. He is anathema to France’s centrists, and his political rise only heightens the perception that the country’s leftist camp will be rudderless and riven by internal feuds, just as the country faces its most momentous election in years, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from the far-right National Rally as the current favorites for the presidency. For now, it also looks highly improbable that such an inflammatory figure as Mélenchon can stop the far right if he qualifies for the second round of the presidential vote next year. While he describes French politics as an “us-against-them” battle on the extremes, and sees France Unbowed as the only party that can lead a “single front” against the far right, polling suggests the French electorate is extremely wary of him. If Mélenchon were to make it to a runoff in 2027, a poll in November suggested he would be smashed by Bardella. According to the survey by Odoxa, 74 percent would pick the National Rally leader for the Elysée. “It’s not at all certain that France Unbowed can widen its electorate to the [centrist] Macron-backing voters,” said Ipsos pollster Mathieu Gallard. French far-right Rassemblement National party’s President Jordan Bardella speaks after the first round of France’s 2026 municipal elections in Beaucaire, south-eastern France on March 15, 2026. | Gabriel Bouys/AFP via Getty Images “Mélenchon is a great political machine that mobilizes the left-wing electorate … but he is also a machine that scares away more moderate voters,” he said. DISARRAY ON THE LEFT Not everyone agrees that France Unbowed’s results on Sunday were as emphatic as Mélenchon is making them out to be. The center-left Socialist Party and its allies are still on track to hold onto many more cities and towns, including Marseille and Montpellier. And the hard left’s combative messaging has not been successful everywhere. “There are towns where their results are quite disappointing,” said pollster Gallard, pointing to suburbs in Paris and Lyon. But even if the hard left’s victories turn out to be less impressive on closer inspection, they are still sending shockwaves through the rest of the left. The Socialist Party, which has been hoping for a comeback after a decade of center-right politics under Macron, is the first and most obvious of Mélenchon’s victims. The moderate left very publicly condemned France Unbowed when Mélenchon refused to distance himself from the ultra-left group that was involved in the death of far-right activist Quentin Deranque. Shock then turned to horror last month when Mélenchon was accused of antisemitism after mocking the pronunciation of Jewish names and playing up the Jewishness of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Marine Le Pen (L) and Jordan Bardella arrive at the Hotel Matignon to attend a meeting of party leaders on the conflict in Iran, hosted by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, in Paris on March 11, 2026. | Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images “He’s the Jean-Marie Le Pen of our times,” said Raphaël Glucksmann, a Jewish politician from the center left who was targeted by Mélenchon. Glucksmann was referring to Marine Le Pen’s father, who founded the National Front and downplayed the Holocaust. In the wake of Sunday’s results, Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure tried to hold the line against France Unbowed, pledging there would be no “national alliance.” But within hours the Socialists were striking deals at the local level, including in France’s third-largest city, Lyon.  “We’ll get attacked all week,” warned Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, a Socialist former lawmaker, who slammed the “lack of clarity” over the party’s position. “What we’ll win now, we’ll lose in the presidential election because we won’t be credible,” he said. In another sign of division, the Socialists and the Greens have also been at each other’s throats over whether to team up with France Unbowed. GAMING THE TWO-ROUND ELECTION For Mélenchon, such divisions are good news. Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party, during a press conference in Lyon. France on March 10, 2026. | Albin Bonnard/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images After blowing up France’s traditional parties, President Emmanuel Macron has left a fragmented political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election, along with a weakened centrist coalition. With the French president unable to run for a third consecutive term, there’s a surplus of presidential hopefuls on the starting line. This could lower the threshold of votes needed to qualify for the runoff vote against the far right. Candidates such as Mélenchon, who have a dedicated and loyal voter base, may be able to pull past more consensual candidates who could cancel each other out. “That’s his strategy,” said a Socialist Party adviser who, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to discuss party politics. “We are capable of taking a dive in elections, but France Unbowed never takes a dive, they never go under 10 percent” in national elections, the adviser said. “But there isn’t a scenario in which he wins in a runoff vote against Bardella.” The difficulty for the moderate left is compounded by the fact that Mélenchon is one of the most charismatic politicians on the left. He has even drawn the reluctant admiration of Le Pen’s niece, Marion Maréchal, who called him “the most cultured” politician around. But what’s true of the left is also to some extent true of the conservatives and the center right, which are enmeshed in internal squabbling to see who can assume Macron’s mantle. “What are the political offers on the table and who is there to embody them?” asked a close ally of the French president. “I can see what the extremes are offering, but in between, it’s really not clear,” he said. That’s a gap Mélenchon is trying to exploit.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music After a weekend of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — Brussels is moving to coordinate its diplomatic response. EU ambassadors convened, foreign ministers met online and Ursula von der Leyen called the Defense College. But as tensions escalate across the region, is Europe shaping events — or reacting to them? Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack the EU’s balancing act: condemning Iran’s retaliation, avoiding direct criticism of Washington and trying to remain strategically relevant in a crisis unfolding beyond its borders. Plus: Emmanuel Macron unveils his vision for Europe’s nuclear future from France’s submarine base — and in Brussels, a debate over whether 250,000 EU citizens living in the Belgian capital should get the right to vote in regional elections. You can reach us on our WhatsApp at: +32 491 05 06 29. **A message for Amazon: Today's episode is presented by Amazon. Sixty percent of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers. Across Europe, over two hundred and eighty thousand Small and Medium Enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Learn more at Aboutamazon.eu. **

KYIV — Ukraine sees a narrow window to secure its future within the EU: between the Hungarian election this April and the French presidential vote in April 2027, according to officials in Brussels and Kyiv. Kyiv wants to have a reference to EU membership in 2027 written into the peace deal being negotiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, and it sees the interval between the two key European elections as the best time to join the bloc. The EU is working on a plan that could give Ukraine partial membership next year. This would see Ukraine gaining an observer-like status during European Council summits and in European Parliament committees, while it completes the reforms needed for full membership privileges. “It’s true we want [a] fast track for membership,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. “2027 is very important for us and, I hope, realistic so that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin cannot block our membership for decades,” Zelenskyy said. He added that Kyiv was trying to avoid the fate of its bid to join NATO, which is now effectively off the table as a result of Washington’s opposition. The thinking is that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will not allow Kyiv’s bid to progress before April’s ballot because he has made opposition to Ukraine a key element of his reelection campaign. But Orbán may dial back his opposition if he manages to win another term, particularly if pushed to do so by Trump, according to one EU diplomat and a Ukrainian official. Both were granted anonymity to speak freely. If Orbán loses the Hungarian ballot, both Brussels and Kyiv perceive an opening under Péter Magyar, the opposition leader who is ahead in the polls. The EU diplomat said that while Magyar has made critical statements about Ukraine, he nonetheless appears to want to work more “constructively” with Brussels and could be motivated by the desire to have frozen EU funds for Hungary released. That could be enough of an incentive for him to lift Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU bid. If it isn’t, the U.S. administration could be called on to exert pressure — if Trump still wants to play dealmaker. “You can rely on the European Union — we will be on your side as long as it takes,” European Council President António Costa told Zelenskyy at Tuesday’s press conference. “We are committed to building a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine within the European Union.” THE PROBLEM WITH ‘AS LONG AS IT TAKES’ The worry in Kyiv is that, if talks drag out and Trump loses interest in a peace deal, “as long as it takes” could mean Ukraine is locked out of the bloc until after the next EU election in 2029, or even later, according to the Ukrainian official. Brussels and Kyiv are also looking ahead to the April 2027 French presidential election, in which the far-right National Rally, which has been Kremlin-friendly in the past, is ahead in the polls. The fear is that if Marine Le Pen’s party wins the presidency before Ukraine is offered a place inside the EU, it could block membership for Kyiv. However, full EU membership for Ukraine before 2027 is off the table, a senior EU official said. Speaking on Tuesday alongside Zelenskyy and Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that while she understood that “a clear date” is “important” for Zelenskyy, when it comes to the EU, “dates by themselves [without completing reforms] are not possible.” Full EU membership for Ukraine before 2027 is off the table, a senior EU official said. | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images As Ukraine continues trying to convince member countries that it will meet the criteria to join the EU imminently, talk is also turning to ways for Brussels to update the process to match the current geopolitical moment. “I have had many meetings where we have been discussing now how we could accelerate the Ukrainian path to the European Union,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told POLITICO, before cautioning: “Without doing the reforms, nothing will be possible.” But, Kos added: “We have to have a broader discussion with the European Union among the member states about the methodology of the accession process, which is not suitable anymore for the times we are living in. You know this methodology is good for peace, it is good when we have time.” If the EU fails to adapt, it risks pushing potential EU members toward the Kremlin and its allies, she said. “If we will not be able to integrate our candidates into the EU shortly, then there is a danger that someone else will be more influential in those countries and using them against us, weaponizing [them],” Kos said.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Europe marked four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion with a high-profile show of solidarity in Kyiv on Tuesday. Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa stood alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy — but the absence of some key leaders raised quiet questions in Ukraine about who showed up, and who didn’t. Zoya Sheftalovich was on the ground in Kyiv for the anniversary events. She joins Ian Wishart to describe the mood in the city, what was said behind closed doors, and how European leaders are discussing ways to deal with attempts by Hungary and Slovakia to block a vital EU loan for Ukraine and the next package of sanctions against Russia. You can reach us on our WhatsApp at +32 491 05 06 29. **A message from Amazon: Across Europe, businesses are growing with the AWS Cloud to build innovative, scalable products. From Europe’s largest enterprises and government agencies to the continent’s fastest growing startups, learn more about how AWS Cloud is helping businesses across Europe grow at AWS.eu.**

The European Central Bank on Wednesday said Christine Lagarde has not made a decision on when to stand down as president, following a media report suggesting that she was considering an early resignation. According to the Financial Times report, Lagarde is expected to leave her position before her eight-year term expires in October 2027, allowing outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron to plan the succession for one of the EU’s most important institutions, ahead of France’s presidential elections in April next year. Macron cannot run again and the far-right National Rally is consistently polling ahead of rivals, which would shake up French and European politics. “President Lagarde is totally focused on her mission and has not taken any decision regarding the end of her term,” an ECB spokesperson said. The statement is less forceful than previous denials and appears to allow Lagarde some leeway in managing her departure. Following rumors last summer that she may leave the Bank early to take over the World Economic Forum, Lagarde said: “I can very firmly say that I have always been fully determined to deliver on my mission and I’m determined to complete my term.” The decision by Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau earlier this month to quit his job a year before the end of his mandate is also said to have been influenced by succession considerations, ensuring Macron can manage the process.

PARIS — The leader of the French conservatives, Bruno Retailleau, announced Thursday that he will run in next year’s presidential election as campaign season gets underway particularly early. The former interior minister joins what is expected to be a crowded field to replace President Emmanuel Macron, who cannot run because of term limits. The far-right National Rally is currently ahead in the polls, though whether the party will be represented by the up-and-coming Jordan Bardella or longtime leader Marine Le Pen cannot be decided until after July 7, when a verdict will be rendered on Le Pen’s appeal of the five-year election ban she was handed after being convicted of embezzlement. After spending most of his political career in relative anonymity, the 65-year-old Retailleau burst onto the scene two years ago after being named interior minister by former Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Retailleau’s political savvy and hard-line, unapologetic stance on hot-button issues such as immigration electrified supporters of his seemingly moribund political party, Les Républicains, and prompted speculation that he could parlay his high-profile ministerial role into a presidential campaign. But Retailleau’s role in bringing down Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s first government after just 14 hours — the then-minister argued it included too many people close to Macron — has cost him political capital. The conservative leader exited government after the debacle and has since appeared to lose momentum, struggling to make headlines. Retailleau’s favorability ratings dropped 11 percentage points from 35 percent last March to 24 percent just before the new year, according to a poll from the firm Elabe. A November survey on the presidential election conducted by reputable pollster Odoxa showed Retailleau finishing fifth in the first round of the contest with 8 to 10 percent of the projected vote. Retailleau joins former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, Greens leader Marine Tondelier and Socialist MP Jérôme Guedj among politicians who have formally declared their intentions for the 2027 election. They’re expected to be joined in the coming months by former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann and three-time hard-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin has said he is also considering entering the race. Retailleau is expected to face some competition from within his own party as well. Michel Barnier, the former prime minister and Brexit negotiator; Xavier Bertrand, the president of the northern French region of Hauts-de-France; and Laurent Wauquiez, the conservative lawmaker Retailleau handily defeated in last year’s race to lead Les Républicains, have all publicly mapped out plans to run. The party has not said whether it will hold a primary election to choose a candidate, as it did during the last presidential election. Retailleau has publicly pushed back against calls to hold a primary featuring candidates from the center-right to the far-right of France’s political spectrum.

PARIS — As the French presidential election campaign kicks into gear unusually early ahead of the 2027 ballot, the far-right National Rally will be stuck the sidelines until summer waiting to find out if their candidate will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. Clarity on timing emerged Thursday when a court announced it would deliver a verdict on July 7 in Le Pen’s ongoing appeal of a five-year election ban that knocked her out of the race. The situation is becoming increasingly awkward, as Le Pen has spent the past month confined to the courtroom while her protégé Jordan Bardella, the party’s “Plan B” candidate, tackles the interviews, meetings and public appearances expected of a frontline contender. “I’m more than walking on eggshells,” one of Bardella’s closest advisers said last week. The adviser, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to discuss internal party dynamics. He said he was “balancing each one of [Bardella’s] words” to avoid giving the impression that the party was already ruling Le Pen out as a candidate, for all that her prospects of a successful appeal appear to be diminishing. Le Pen has pledged to make a final call on her candidacy as soon as the appeal decision is in, and in recent days has hinted she’s unlikely to fight a ban if the court upholds it. “I’m not going to risk killing the presidential election,” Le Pen told a group of reporters in the courtroom last week. A close Le Pen ally admitted that the party knows “the waiting period will be trying.” “But that’s no excuse not to start preparing for the campaign,” the ally said. A NEW SET OF CHALLENGES Le Pen formally launched her previous presidential campaign in April 2021, 11 months before the 2022 election. The National Rally likely won’t be able to announce a 2027 campaign that early again unless the court dramatically expedites its work. The prolonged uncertainty appears to be working against Le Pen, whose was found guilty last year of illicitly using European Parliament funds to pay for assistants who solely did domestic political work. A recent survey by pollster Odoxa found that 69 percent of National Rally supporters now believe Bardella would be a stronger candidate than Le Pen. According to the same poll, Bardella also enjoys higher approval ratings than his mentor across party lines — and, unlike Le Pen, is viewed positively by a majority of voters backing the conservative Les Républicains party, whose support the far right would need to win the race. Over the weekend, as Bardella traveled to southern France to support a candidate in a mayoral race ahead of nationwide local elections next month, he was greeted by a dense crowd chanting “Jordan [Bardella] at the Elysée,” French media reported. In an interview during the trip with broadcaster BFMTV, Bardella said he would “always remain entirely loyal to Marine Le Pen,” adding that his party would be competitive in the next presidential election “no matter what happens, even though everything is being done to stop us.” The French far right has long complained that the system is stacked against it, and sees the case against Le Pen as an example of this. The National Rally faces the added challenge of having to prepare two separate presidential campaigns at the same time. The Le Pen ally quoted above said the party’s strategy for Le Pen’s fourth bid at the Elysée would look significantly different from its approach to the 30-year-old Bardella, who would be taking his first shot at the presidency. “A new candidate means new storytelling, a new pitch,” the Le Pen ally said. “You can’t just go off what was previously decided upon.”

Want to get a sense of how the next French presidential vote will play out? Then pay attention to the upcoming local elections. They start in 50 days, and voters in more than 35,000 communes will head to the polls to elect city councils and mayors. Those races will give an important insight into French politics running into the all-important 2027 presidential contest that threatens to reshape both France and the European Union.  The elections, which will take place over two rounds on March 15 and March 22, will confirm whether the far-right National Rally can cement its status as the country’s predominant political force. They will also offer signs of whether the left is able to overcome its internal divisions to be a serious challenger. The center has to prove it’s not in a death spiral. POLITICO traveled to four cities for an on-the-ground look at key races that will be fought on policy issues that resonate nationally such as public safety, housing, climate change and social services. These are topics that could very well determine the fortunes of the leading parties next year. FRANCE IN MINIATURE Benoit Payan, Franck Allisio, Martine Vassal and Sébastien Delogu | Source photos via EPA and Getty Images MARSEILLE — France’s second city is a microcosm of the nationwide electoral picture. Marseille’s sprawl is comprised of poorer, multicultural areas, middle-to-upper-class residential zones and bustling, student-filled districts. All make up the city’s unique fabric. Though Marseille has long struggled with crime, a surge in violence tied to drug trafficking in the city and nationwide has seen security rocket up voters’ priority list. In Marseille, as elsewhere, the far right has tied the uptick in violence and crime to immigration. The strategy appears to be working. Recent polling shows National Rally candidate Franck Allisio neck-and-neck with incumbent Benoît Payan, who enjoys the support of most center-left and left-wing parties. Trailing them are the center-right hopeful Martine Vassal — who is backed by French President Emmanuel Macron’s party Renaissance — and the hard-left France Unbowed candidate Sébastien Delogu, a close ally of three-time presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Those four candidates are all polling well enough to make the second round. That could set up an unprecedented and unpredictable four-way runoff to lead the Mediterranean port city of more than 850,000 people. A National Rally win here would rank among the biggest victories in the history of the French far right. Party leader Marine Le Pen traveled to Marseille herself on Jan. 17 to stump for Allisio, describing the city as a “a symbol of France’s divisions” and slamming Payan for “denying that there is a connection between immigration and insecurity.” Party leader Marine Le Pen traveled to Marseille herself on Jan. 17 to stump for Allisio. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images The center-right candidate Vassal told POLITICO said she would increase security by recruiting more local police and installing video surveillance. But she also regretted that Marseille was so often represented by its struggles. “We’re always making headlines on problems like drug trafficking … It puts all the city’s assets and qualities to the side and erases everything else which goes on,” Vassal said. Payan, whose administration took over in 2020 after decades of conservative rule, has tried to tread a line that is uncompromising on policing while also acknowledging the roots of the city’s problems require holistic solutions. He’s offered to double the number of local cops as part of a push for more community policing and pledged free meals for 15,000 students to get them back in school. Marseille’s sprawl is comprised of poorer, multicultural areas, middle-to-upper-class residential zones and bustling, student-filled districts. All make up the city’s unique fabric. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images Delogu is the only major candidate not offering typical law-and-order investments. Though he acknowledges the city’s crime problems, he proposes any new spending should be on poverty reduction, housing supply and the local public health sector rather than of more security forces and equipment. Crime is sure to dominate the debate in Marseille. This election will test which of these competing approaches resonates most in a country where security is increasingly a top concern. LATEST POLLING: Payan 30 percent – Allisio 30 percent- Vassal 23 percent – Delogu 14 percent CAN A UNITED LEFT BLOCK A FAR-RIGHT TAKEOVER? Julien Sanchez, Franck Proust and Julien Plantier | Source photos via Getty Images NÎMES — Nîmes’ stunningly well-preserved second-century Roman amphitheater attracts global superstars for blockbuster concerts. But even the glamour of Taylor Swift or Dua Lipa can’t hide the recent scares in this city of more than 150,000 people. Nîmes has in recent years suffered from violence tied to drug trafficking long associated with Marseille, located just a short train ride away. Pissevin, a high-rise neighborhood just a 15-minute streetcar ride from the landmark amphitheater, seized national headlines in 2024 when 10-year-old was killed by a stray bullet in a case that remains under investigation but which prosecutors believe was linked to drug trafficking. “Ten to 15 years ago, a lot of crime came from petty theft and burglaries. But some of the population in underprivileged areas, looking for economic opportunities, turned to the drug trade, which offered a lot more money and the same amount of prison time if they were caught,” said Salim El Jihad, a Nîmes resident who leads the local nongovernmental organization Suburban. The Nimes amphitheatre and Pissevin / Source photos via Getty Images The National Rally is betting on Nîmes as a symbolic pickup. The race is shaping up to be a close three-way contest between Communist Vincent Bouget, the National Rally’s Julien Sanchez and conservative Franck Proust, Nîmes’ deputy mayor from 2016 to 2020. Bouget — who is backed by most other left-wing parties, including moderate forces like the Socialist Party — told POLITICO that while security is shaping up to be a big theme in the contest, it raises “a broader question around social structures.” “What citizens are asking for is more human presence, including public services and social workers,” Bouget said. Whoever wins will take the reins from Jean-Paul Fournier, the 80-year-old conservative mayor who has kept Nîmes on the right without pause for the past quarter century. But Fournier’s decision not to seek another term and infighting within his own party, Les Républicains, have sharply diminished Proust’s chances of victory. Proust may very well end splitting votes with Julien Plantier, another right-leaning former deputy mayor, who has the support of Macron’s Renaissance. Sanchez, meanwhile, is appealing to former Fournier voters with pledges to bolster local police units and with red scare tactics. “Jean-Paul Fournier managed to keep this city on the right for 25 years,” Sanchez said in his candidacy announcement clip. “Because of the stupidity of his heirs, there’s a strong chance the communists and the far left could win.” LATEST POLLING: Bouget 28 percent – Sanchez 27 percent- Proust 22 percent THE LAST GREEN HOPE That was also a clear swipe at Pierre Hurmic’s main opponent — pro-Macron centrist Thomas Cazenave — who spent a year as budget minister from 2023 to 2024. | Source photos via Getty Images BORDEAUX — Everyone loves a Bordeaux red. So can a Green really last in French wine country? Pierre Hurmic rode the green wave to Bordeaux city hall during France’s last nationwide municipal elections in 2020. That year the Greens, which had seldom held power other than as a junior coalition partner, won the race for mayor in three of France’s 10 most populous cities — Strasbourg, Lyon and Bordeaux — along with smaller but noteworthy municipalities including Poitiers and Besançon. Six years later, the most recent polling suggests the Greens are on track to lose all of them. Except Bordeaux. Green mayors have faced intense scrutiny over efforts to make cities less car-centric and more eco-friendly, largely from right-wing opponents who depict those policies as out of touch with working-class citizens who are priced out of expensive city centers and must rely on cars to get to their jobs. The view from Paris is that Hurmic has escaped some of that backlash by being less ideological and, crucially, adopting a tougher stance on crime than some of his peers. Notably, Hurmic decided to arm part of the city’s local police units — departing from some of his party’s base, which argues that firearms should be reserved for national forces rather than less-experienced municipal units. In an interview with POLITICO, Hurmic refused to compare himself to other Green mayors. He defended his decision to double the number of local police, alongside those he armed, saying it had led to a tangible drop in crime. “Everyone does politics based on their own temperament and local circumstances,” he said. Hurmic insists that being tough on crime doesn’t mean going soft on climate change. He argues the Greens’ weak polling wasn’t a backlash against local ecological policies, pointing to recent polling showing 63 percent of voters would be “reluctant to vote for a candidate who questions the ecological transition measures already underway in their municipality.” Pursuing a city’s transition on issues like mobility and energy is all the more necessary because at the national level, “the state is completely lacking,” Hurmic said, pointing to what he described as insufficient investment in recent budgets. That was also a clear swipe at his main opponent — pro-Macron centrist Thomas Cazenave — who spent a year as budget minister from 2023 to 2024. Cazenave has joined forces with other center-right and conservative figures in a bid to reclaim a city that spent 73 years under right-leaning mayors, two of whom served as prime minister — Alain Juppé and Jacques Chaban-Delmas. But according Ludovic Renard, a political scientist at the Bordeaux Institute of Political Science, Hurmic’s ascent speaks to how the city has changed. “The sociology of the city is no longer the same, and Hurmic’s politics are more in tune with its population,” said Renard. LATEST POLLING: Hurmic 32 percent – Cazenave 26 percent – Nordine Raymond (France Unbowed) 15 percent – Julie Rechagneux (National Rally) 13 percent – Philippe Dessertine (independent) 12 percent GENTRIFICATION AND THE FUTURE OF THE LEFT Mayor Karim Bouamrane, a Socialist, has said the arrival of new, wealthier residents and the ensuing gentrification could be a net positive for the city, as long as “excellence is shared.” | Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images SAINT-OUEN-SUR-SEINE — The future of the French left could be decided on the grounds of the former Olympic village. The Parisian suburb of Saint-Ouen-sur-Seine, which borders the French capital, is a case study in the waves of gentrification that have transformed the outskirts of major European cities. Think New York’s Williamsburg, London’s Hackney or Berlin’s Neukölln. Saint-Ouen, as it’s usually called, has long been known for its massive flea market, which draws millions of visitors each year. But the city, particularly its areas closest to Paris, was long seen as unsafe and struggled with entrenched poverty. The future of the French left could be decided on the grounds of the former Olympic village. | Mustafa Yalcin/Anadolu via Getty Images That changed over time, as more affluent Parisians began moving into the well-connected suburb in search of cheaper rents or property. A 2023 report from the local court of auditors underlined that “the population of this rapidly growing municipality … has both a high poverty rate (28 percent) and a phenomenon of ‘gentrification’ linked to the rapid increase in the proportion of executives and higher intellectual professions.” Mayor Karim Bouamrane, a Socialist, has said the arrival of new, wealthier residents and the ensuing gentrification could be a net positive for the city, as long as “excellence is shared.” Bouamrane has also said he would continue pushing for the inclusion of social housing when issuing building permits, and for existing residents not to be displaced when urban renewal programs are put in place. His main challenger, France Unbowed’s Manon Monmirel, hopes to build enough social housing to make it 40 percent of the city’s total housing stock. She’s also pledged to crack down on real estate speculation. The race between the two could shed light on whether the future of the French left lies in the center or at the extremes. In Boumrane, the Socialists have a charismatic leader. He is 52 years old, with a beat-the-odds story that lends itself well to a national campaign. His journey from child of Moroccan immigrants growing up in a rough part of Saint-Ouen to city leader certainly caught attention of the foreign press in the run-up to the Olympics. Bouamrane’s moderate politics include a push for his party to stop fighting Macron’s decision to raise the retirement age in 2023 and he supports more cross-partisan work with the current center-right government. That approach stands in sharp contrast to the ideologically rigid France Unbowed. The party’s firebrand leader Mélenchon scored 51.82 percent of the vote in Saint-Ouen during his last presidential run in 2022, and France Unbowed landed over 35 percent — more than three times its national average — there in the European election two years later, a race in which it usually struggles. Mélenchon and France Unbowed’s campaign tactics are laser-focused on specific segments that support him en masse despite his divisive nature: a mix of educated, green-minded young voters and working-class urban populations, often of immigrant descent. In other words: the yuppies moving to Saint-Ouen and the people who were their before gentrification. France Unbowed needs their continued support to become a durable force, or it may crumble like the grassroots movements born in the early 2010s, including Spain’s Podemos or Greece’s Syriza. But if the Socialists can’t win a left-leaning suburb with a popular incumbent on the ballot, where can they win?