Want to get a sense of how the next French presidential vote will play out? Then pay attention to the upcoming local elections. They start in 50 days, and voters in more than 35,000 communes will head to the polls to elect city councils and mayors. Those races will give an important insight into French politics running into the all-important 2027 presidential contest that threatens to reshape both France and the European Union.  The elections, which will take place over two rounds on March 15 and March 22, will confirm whether the far-right National Rally can cement its status as the country’s predominant political force. They will also offer signs of whether the left is able to overcome its internal divisions to be a serious challenger. The center has to prove it’s not in a death spiral. POLITICO traveled to four cities for an on-the-ground look at key races that will be fought on policy issues that resonate nationally such as public safety, housing, climate change and social services. These are topics that could very well determine the fortunes of the leading parties next year. FRANCE IN MINIATURE Benoit Payan, Franck Allisio, Martine Vassal and Sébastien Delogu | Source photos via EPA and Getty Images MARSEILLE — France’s second city is a microcosm of the nationwide electoral picture. Marseille’s sprawl is comprised of poorer, multicultural areas, middle-to-upper-class residential zones and bustling, student-filled districts. All make up the city’s unique fabric. Though Marseille has long struggled with crime, a surge in violence tied to drug trafficking in the city and nationwide has seen security rocket up voters’ priority list. In Marseille, as elsewhere, the far right has tied the uptick in violence and crime to immigration. The strategy appears to be working. Recent polling shows National Rally candidate Franck Allisio neck-and-neck with incumbent Benoît Payan, who enjoys the support of most center-left and left-wing parties. Trailing them are the center-right hopeful Martine Vassal — who is backed by French President Emmanuel Macron’s party Renaissance — and the hard-left France Unbowed candidate Sébastien Delogu, a close ally of three-time presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Those four candidates are all polling well enough to make the second round. That could set up an unprecedented and unpredictable four-way runoff to lead the Mediterranean port city of more than 850,000 people. A National Rally win here would rank among the biggest victories in the history of the French far right. Party leader Marine Le Pen traveled to Marseille herself on Jan. 17 to stump for Allisio, describing the city as a “a symbol of France’s divisions” and slamming Payan for “denying that there is a connection between immigration and insecurity.” Party leader Marine Le Pen traveled to Marseille herself on Jan. 17 to stump for Allisio. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images The center-right candidate Vassal told POLITICO said she would increase security by recruiting more local police and installing video surveillance. But she also regretted that Marseille was so often represented by its struggles. “We’re always making headlines on problems like drug trafficking … It puts all the city’s assets and qualities to the side and erases everything else which goes on,” Vassal said. Payan, whose administration took over in 2020 after decades of conservative rule, has tried to tread a line that is uncompromising on policing while also acknowledging the roots of the city’s problems require holistic solutions. He’s offered to double the number of local cops as part of a push for more community policing and pledged free meals for 15,000 students to get them back in school. Marseille’s sprawl is comprised of poorer, multicultural areas, middle-to-upper-class residential zones and bustling, student-filled districts. All make up the city’s unique fabric. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images Delogu is the only major candidate not offering typical law-and-order investments. Though he acknowledges the city’s crime problems, he proposes any new spending should be on poverty reduction, housing supply and the local public health sector rather than of more security forces and equipment. Crime is sure to dominate the debate in Marseille. This election will test which of these competing approaches resonates most in a country where security is increasingly a top concern. LATEST POLLING: Payan 30 percent – Allisio 30 percent- Vassal 23 percent – Delogu 14 percent CAN A UNITED LEFT BLOCK A FAR-RIGHT TAKEOVER? Julien Sanchez, Franck Proust and Julien Plantier | Source photos via Getty Images NÎMES — Nîmes’ stunningly well-preserved second-century Roman amphitheater attracts global superstars for blockbuster concerts. But even the glamour of Taylor Swift or Dua Lipa can’t hide the recent scares in this city of more than 150,000 people. Nîmes has in recent years suffered from violence tied to drug trafficking long associated with Marseille, located just a short train ride away. Pissevin, a high-rise neighborhood just a 15-minute streetcar ride from the landmark amphitheater, seized national headlines in 2024 when 10-year-old was killed by a stray bullet in a case that remains under investigation but which prosecutors believe was linked to drug trafficking. “Ten to 15 years ago, a lot of crime came from petty theft and burglaries. But some of the population in underprivileged areas, looking for economic opportunities, turned to the drug trade, which offered a lot more money and the same amount of prison time if they were caught,” said Salim El Jihad, a Nîmes resident who leads the local nongovernmental organization Suburban. The Nimes amphitheatre and Pissevin / Source photos via Getty Images The National Rally is betting on Nîmes as a symbolic pickup. The race is shaping up to be a close three-way contest between Communist Vincent Bouget, the National Rally’s Julien Sanchez and conservative Franck Proust, Nîmes’ deputy mayor from 2016 to 2020. Bouget — who is backed by most other left-wing parties, including moderate forces like the Socialist Party — told POLITICO that while security is shaping up to be a big theme in the contest, it raises “a broader question around social structures.” “What citizens are asking for is more human presence, including public services and social workers,” Bouget said. Whoever wins will take the reins from Jean-Paul Fournier, the 80-year-old conservative mayor who has kept Nîmes on the right without pause for the past quarter century. But Fournier’s decision not to seek another term and infighting within his own party, Les Républicains, have sharply diminished Proust’s chances of victory. Proust may very well end splitting votes with Julien Plantier, another right-leaning former deputy mayor, who has the support of Macron’s Renaissance. Sanchez, meanwhile, is appealing to former Fournier voters with pledges to bolster local police units and with red scare tactics. “Jean-Paul Fournier managed to keep this city on the right for 25 years,” Sanchez said in his candidacy announcement clip. “Because of the stupidity of his heirs, there’s a strong chance the communists and the far left could win.” LATEST POLLING: Bouget 28 percent – Sanchez 27 percent- Proust 22 percent THE LAST GREEN HOPE That was also a clear swipe at Pierre Hurmic’s main opponent — pro-Macron centrist Thomas Cazenave — who spent a year as budget minister from 2023 to 2024. | Source photos via Getty Images BORDEAUX — Everyone loves a Bordeaux red. So can a Green really last in French wine country? Pierre Hurmic rode the green wave to Bordeaux city hall during France’s last nationwide municipal elections in 2020. That year the Greens, which had seldom held power other than as a junior coalition partner, won the race for mayor in three of France’s 10 most populous cities — Strasbourg, Lyon and Bordeaux — along with smaller but noteworthy municipalities including Poitiers and Besançon. Six years later, the most recent polling suggests the Greens are on track to lose all of them. Except Bordeaux. Green mayors have faced intense scrutiny over efforts to make cities less car-centric and more eco-friendly, largely from right-wing opponents who depict those policies as out of touch with working-class citizens who are priced out of expensive city centers and must rely on cars to get to their jobs. The view from Paris is that Hurmic has escaped some of that backlash by being less ideological and, crucially, adopting a tougher stance on crime than some of his peers. Notably, Hurmic decided to arm part of the city’s local police units — departing from some of his party’s base, which argues that firearms should be reserved for national forces rather than less-experienced municipal units. In an interview with POLITICO, Hurmic refused to compare himself to other Green mayors. He defended his decision to double the number of local police, alongside those he armed, saying it had led to a tangible drop in crime. “Everyone does politics based on their own temperament and local circumstances,” he said. Hurmic insists that being tough on crime doesn’t mean going soft on climate change. He argues the Greens’ weak polling wasn’t a backlash against local ecological policies, pointing to recent polling showing 63 percent of voters would be “reluctant to vote for a candidate who questions the ecological transition measures already underway in their municipality.” Pursuing a city’s transition on issues like mobility and energy is all the more necessary because at the national level, “the state is completely lacking,” Hurmic said, pointing to what he described as insufficient investment in recent budgets. That was also a clear swipe at his main opponent — pro-Macron centrist Thomas Cazenave — who spent a year as budget minister from 2023 to 2024. Cazenave has joined forces with other center-right and conservative figures in a bid to reclaim a city that spent 73 years under right-leaning mayors, two of whom served as prime minister — Alain Juppé and Jacques Chaban-Delmas. But according Ludovic Renard, a political scientist at the Bordeaux Institute of Political Science, Hurmic’s ascent speaks to how the city has changed. “The sociology of the city is no longer the same, and Hurmic’s politics are more in tune with its population,” said Renard. LATEST POLLING: Hurmic 32 percent – Cazenave 26 percent – Nordine Raymond (France Unbowed) 15 percent – Julie Rechagneux (National Rally) 13 percent – Philippe Dessertine (independent) 12 percent GENTRIFICATION AND THE FUTURE OF THE LEFT Mayor Karim Bouamrane, a Socialist, has said the arrival of new, wealthier residents and the ensuing gentrification could be a net positive for the city, as long as “excellence is shared.” | Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images SAINT-OUEN-SUR-SEINE — The future of the French left could be decided on the grounds of the former Olympic village. The Parisian suburb of Saint-Ouen-sur-Seine, which borders the French capital, is a case study in the waves of gentrification that have transformed the outskirts of major European cities. Think New York’s Williamsburg, London’s Hackney or Berlin’s Neukölln. Saint-Ouen, as it’s usually called, has long been known for its massive flea market, which draws millions of visitors each year. But the city, particularly its areas closest to Paris, was long seen as unsafe and struggled with entrenched poverty. The future of the French left could be decided on the grounds of the former Olympic village. | Mustafa Yalcin/Anadolu via Getty Images That changed over time, as more affluent Parisians began moving into the well-connected suburb in search of cheaper rents or property. A 2023 report from the local court of auditors underlined that “the population of this rapidly growing municipality … has both a high poverty rate (28 percent) and a phenomenon of ‘gentrification’ linked to the rapid increase in the proportion of executives and higher intellectual professions.” Mayor Karim Bouamrane, a Socialist, has said the arrival of new, wealthier residents and the ensuing gentrification could be a net positive for the city, as long as “excellence is shared.” Bouamrane has also said he would continue pushing for the inclusion of social housing when issuing building permits, and for existing residents not to be displaced when urban renewal programs are put in place. His main challenger, France Unbowed’s Manon Monmirel, hopes to build enough social housing to make it 40 percent of the city’s total housing stock. She’s also pledged to crack down on real estate speculation. The race between the two could shed light on whether the future of the French left lies in the center or at the extremes. In Boumrane, the Socialists have a charismatic leader. He is 52 years old, with a beat-the-odds story that lends itself well to a national campaign. His journey from child of Moroccan immigrants growing up in a rough part of Saint-Ouen to city leader certainly caught attention of the foreign press in the run-up to the Olympics. Bouamrane’s moderate politics include a push for his party to stop fighting Macron’s decision to raise the retirement age in 2023 and he supports more cross-partisan work with the current center-right government. That approach stands in sharp contrast to the ideologically rigid France Unbowed. The party’s firebrand leader Mélenchon scored 51.82 percent of the vote in Saint-Ouen during his last presidential run in 2022, and France Unbowed landed over 35 percent — more than three times its national average — there in the European election two years later, a race in which it usually struggles. Mélenchon and France Unbowed’s campaign tactics are laser-focused on specific segments that support him en masse despite his divisive nature: a mix of educated, green-minded young voters and working-class urban populations, often of immigrant descent. In other words: the yuppies moving to Saint-Ouen and the people who were their before gentrification. France Unbowed needs their continued support to become a durable force, or it may crumble like the grassroots movements born in the early 2010s, including Spain’s Podemos or Greece’s Syriza. But if the Socialists can’t win a left-leaning suburb with a popular incumbent on the ballot, where can they win?

PARIS — A court appeal begins on Tuesday that will determine whether Marine Le Pen or her protégé Jordan Bardella will head into next year’s presidential election as favorite from the far-right National Rally party. While Le Pen has been a decisive force in making the anti-immigration party the front-runner for the presidency in 2027, she is currently unable to succeed Emmanuel Macron herself thanks to a five-year election ban imposed over her conviction last year for embezzling European Parliament funds. She is now appealing that decision in a case that is expected to last one month, although a verdict is not due until the summer. Le Pen looks set to fight her appeal on technical legal objections and an argument that the ban is disproportionate, rather than going out all-guns blazing and insisting she is the victim of a political hit job. If she does overcome the very steep hurdles required to win her case, she will still have to deal with the political reality that the French electorate are leaning more toward Bardella. The party’s supposed Plan B is starting to have the air of a Plan A. A poll from Ipsos in December showed the 30-year-old overtaking Le Pen as the French politician with the highest share of positive opinions. And a survey from pollster Odoxa conducted in November showed Bardella would win both rounds of the presidential contest.  The National Rally continues to insist that Le Pen is their top choice, but getting her on the ballot will likely require her to win her fast-tracked appeal by setting aside her personal grievances and perhaps even showing a measure of uncustomary contrition to ensure this trial does not end the way the embezzlement case did.  Le Pen is not famous for being low-key and eating humble pie. Shortly after her conviction, she said her movement would follow the example of civil rights’ icon Martin Luther King and vowed: “We will never give in to this violation of democracy.” That’s not the playbook she intends to deploy now. Her lawyers will pursue a less politicized strategy to win round the judges, according to three far-right politicians with direct knowledge of the case, who were granted anonymity to discuss it freely.  “We’ll be heading in with a certain amount of humility, and we’ll try not to be in the mindset that this is a political trial,” said one of trio, a French elected official who is one of the codefendants appealing their conviction.  LINE BY LINE Le Pen and 24 other codefendants stood trial in late 2024 on charges they illicitly used funds from the European Parliament to pay party employees by having them hired as parliamentary assistants. But those assistants, the prosecution argued, rarely if ever worked on actual parliamentary business.  The National Rally’s apparent defense strategy back then was to paint the trial as politicized, potentially winning in the court of public opinion and living with the consequences of a guilty verdict.  The attorneys representing the defendants could did little to rebut several pieces of particularly damning evidence, including the fact that one assistant sent a message to Le Pen asking if he could be introduced to the MEP he had supposedly been working with for months.  Given how severely the defense miscalculated the first time around, lawyers for many of the 14 codefendants in court this week will pursue more traditional appeals, going through the preliminary ruling “line by line” to identify potential rebuttals or procedural hiccups, the trio with direct knowledge of the case explained.   A survey from pollster Odoxa conducted in November showed Bardella would win both rounds of the presidential contest.  | Telmo Pinto/NurPhoto via Getty Images Defense lawyers also plan to tailor their individual arguments more precisely to each client to avoid feeding the sentiment that decisions taken at the highest levels of the National Rally leadership are imposed on the whole party. The prosecution during the initial trial successfully argued that National Rally bigwigs hand-picked assistants at party headquarters to serve the leadership rather than MEPs.  Le Pen’s lawyers will also argue that her punishment — barring a front-running presidential candidate from standing in a nationwide election — was disproportionate to the crime for which she was convicted.  The appeals’ court ruling will have seismic consequences for French politics and Europe ahead of one of the continent’s most important elections. The path toward the presidency will be nearly impossible for Le Pen if her election ban is upheld. Le Pen has indicated in past interviews that she would throw in the towel if she received the same election ban, given that she wouldn’t have enough time to appeal again to a higher court.   Should Bardella replace her and win, the consequences for the French judicial system could be profound. One of the codefendants floated the possibility of a response along the lines of what U.S. President Donald Trump did to those who prosecuted him before his reelection.   “The lingering sense of injustice will remain and can eventually evolve into a quest for revenge,” the codefendant said.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. 2026 is here, and Europe is under siege. External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the U.S. — now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally — is undermining the EU’s multilateral rule book, which appears increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world. And none of this shows signs of slowing down. In fact, in the year ahead, the steady erosion of the norms Europe has come to rely on will only be compounded by the bloc’s weak leadership — especially in the so-called “E3” nations of Germany, France and the U.K. Looking forward, the greatest existential risks for Europe will flow from the transatlantic relationship. For the bloc’s leaders, keeping the U.S. invested in the war in Ukraine was the key goal for 2025. And the best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the ad-hoc diplomacy and transactionalism that has defined the last 12 months. However, if new threats emerge in this relationship — especially regarding Greenland — this balancing act may be impossible. The year also starts with no sign of any concessions from Russia when it comes to its ceasefire demands, or any willingness to accept the terms of the 20-point U.S.-EU-Ukraine plan. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin is calculating that Ukraine’s military situation will further deteriorate, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to capitulate to territorial demands. I believe Putin is wrong — that backed by Europe, Zelenskyy will continue to resist U.S. pressure on territorial concessions, and instead, increasingly target Russian energy production and exports in addition to resisting along the frontline. Of course, this means Russian aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase in kind. Nonetheless, Europe’s growing military spending, purchase of U.S. weapons, financing for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia — which also target sources of energy revenue — could help maintain last year’s status quo. But this is perhaps the best case scenario. Activists protest outside Downing street against the recent policies of Donald Trump. | Guy Smallman/Getty Images Meanwhile, European leaders will be forced to publicly ignore Washington’s support for far-right parties, which was clearly spelled out in the new U.S. national security strategy, while privately doing all they can to counter any antiestablishment backlash at the polls. Specifically, the upcoming election in Hungary will be a bellwether for whether the MAGA movement can tip the balance for its ideological affiliates in Europe, as populist, euroskeptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is currently poised to lose for the first time in 15 years. Orbán, for his part, has been frantically campaigning to boost voter support, signaling that he and his inner circle actually view defeat as a possibility. His charismatic rival Péter Magyar, who shares his conservative-nationalist political origins but lacks any taint of corruption poses a real challenge, as does the country’s stagnating economy and rising prices. While traditional electoral strategies — financial giveaways, smear campaigns and war fearmongering — have so far proven ineffective for Orbán, a military spillover from Ukraine that directly affects Hungary could reignite voter fears and shift the dynamic. To top it all off, these challenges will be compounded by the E3’s weakness. The hollowing out of Europe’s political center has already been a decade in the making. But France, Germany and the U.K. each entered 2026 with weak, unpopular governments besieged by the populist right and left, as well as a U.S. administration rooting for their collapse. While none face scheduled general elections, all three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst. And at least one leader — namely, Britain’s Keir Starmer — could fall because of an internal party revolt. The year’s pivotal event in the U.K. will be the midterm elections in May. As it stands, the Labour Party faces the humiliation of coming third in the Welsh parliament, failing to oust the Scottish National Party in the Scottish parliament and losing seats to both the Greens and ReformUK in English local elections. Labour MPs already expect a formal challenge to Starmer as party leader, and his chances of surviving seem slight. France, meanwhile, entered 2026 without a budget for the second consecutive year. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that his Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government will probably achieve a budget deal targeting a modest deficit reduction by late February or March. And with the presidential election only 16 months away and local elections due to be held in March, the opposition’s appetite for a snap parliamentary election has abated. However, this is the best he can hope for, as a splintered National Assembly will sustain a mood of slow-motion crisis until the 2027 race. Finally, while Germany’s economy looks like it will slightly recover this year, it still won’t overcome its structural malaise. Largely consumed by ideological divisions, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will struggle to implement far-reaching reforms. And with the five upcoming state elections expected to see increased vote shares for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, pressure on the government in Berlin will only mount A historic truth — one often forgotten in the quiet times — will reassert itself in 2026: that liberty, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always brittle. The holiday from history, provided by Pax Americana and exceptional post-World War II cooperation and integration, has officially come to an end. Moving forward, Europe’s relevance in the new global order will be defined by its response to Russia’s increased hybrid aggression, its influence on diplomacy regarding the Ukraine war and its ability to improve competitiveness, all while managing an increasingly ascendant far right and addressing the existential threats to its economy and security posed by Russia, China and the U.S. This is what will decide whether Europe can survive.

PARIS — Marine Le Pen and her troops are making it clear that they’re not jumping into bed with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration despite their shared ideology. The far-right National Rally has in recent days gone out of its way to tamp down any hint of a political romance with the White House after German news outlet Der Spiegel reported that team Trump considered sanctioning the French judges who convicted Marine Le Pen of embezzlement and handed her a five-year election ban, effectively barring her from next year’s presidential race. After the verdict was handed down, U.S. President Donald Trump likened Le Pen’s judicial woes to his own and said her conviction was an example of “using Lawfare to silence Free Speech.” Le Pen will be back in court next week to appeal the verdict. Though the State Department has since denied the Spiegel report as “stale and false,” the mere hint of a National Rally-MAGA liaison was enough to quickly put the party on the defensive — especially given that Washington sanctioned a French judge at the International Criminal Court that issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a press release dated Wednesday, the National Rally said it condemned the sanctions against the ICC judge and watches closely for “any pressure of unacceptable nature on the judicial branch.” In the same statement, it slammed the initial Spiegel report as “fake news” and chastised the press for picking it up. Three National Rally officials contacted by POLITICO also expressed unease at the unconfirmed report. “We have always rejected foreign interference from one side or the other,” Renaud Labaye, a close adviser to Le Pen and high-ranking member of her party, the National Rally, said Thursday. “We stand by that.” Alexandre Sabatou, a member of the France-U.S. friendship group in the National Assembly who traveled across the Atlantic for Trump’s inauguration, said Tuesday that “as a staunch defender of France as a sovereign nation, it bugs me.” The National Rally has been forced to play a delicate dance when it comes to support from Trump, whose administration last month hinted that it was ready to throw its weight between “patriotic European parties” in its bombshell national security strategy. However, Trump is largely unpopular in France, even among the far-right party’s supporters, and many voters recognize that his administration is pursuing economic and geopolitical policies that aren’t in France’s interest. Overtures from the White House to intervene in French and European politics also run counter to the National Rally’s pledge to protect French geostrategic independence — especially from American hegemony — rooted in the politics of legendary Gen. Charles De Gaulle. The debate around potential foreign interference comes as the country’s judicial branch is already under intense political pressure over high-profile cases, including the trial of former President Nicolas Sarkozy and Le Pen’s appeal.

PARIS — Marine Le Pen is trying to quash mounting speculation that she could get sidelined by National Rally President Jordan Bardella on her road to the Elysée after a series of flattering polls for her protégé.  Le Pen, who is currently banned from running in the 2027 presidential election pending an appeal of her embezzlement conviction, is in an increasingly awkward situation after two recent polls showed that 30-year-old Bardella is gaining traction as a presidential candidate at Le Pen’s expense. Asked Tuesday on TV station BFMTV why Bardella was only a plan B candidate considering his favorable polling, Le Pen said: “Because we decided as much.”   “We are the ones who decide, Jordan and me,” she said. Le Pen was found guilty last year of embezzling European Parliament funds and sentenced to an immediate five-year ban from running for public office. She will return to court in January after appealing all charges, which she has repeatedly denied and framed as politically motivated. She has said Bardella will run in her place if the appeal court upholds the election ban, but a decision won’t be known before spring.  SHIFTING DYNAMIC But while Bardella is officially his party’s plan B, polls show he is starting to outshine his boss. In an IFOP-Fiducial poll unveiled Tuesday, 44 percent of respondents said they wanted Bardella to run in the 2027 presidential election against 40 percent for Le Pen. Last week, a survey from pollster Odoxa showed Bardella winning against all the other candidates polled, beating the likes of center-right Edouard Philippe to leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Le Pen wasn’t even polled. While polls this early before an election have to be taken with a serious grain of salt, the dynamic hasn’t gone unnoticed. Renaud Labaye, the National Rally group’s secretary-general in the National Assembly and a close adviser to Le Pen, said the poll was good news for the party, showing “the dynamic was on [their] side.”  Privately, party heavyweights say they don’t doubt Bardella’s loyalty but admit his rise raises uncomfortable questions for their camp.  While Le Pen must constantly face off questions over her viability as a candidate, Bardella is triumphantly touring the country to promote his newest book, drawing crowds in what many see as an ideal launching pad for a presidential run.  A National Rally lawmaker close to Le Pen, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Le Pen’s truly believes Bardella supports her. But, the lawmaker admitted, the book tour can also be seen as Bardella laying the groundwork for his own presidential candidacy.  

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Der fünfte Premierminister binnen drei Jahren – und ein Präsident, der am Scheideweg steht: Emmanuel Macron kämpft in Paris um seine politische Zukunft. In Berlin wächst die Sorge, was der französische Regierungschaos für Europa bedeutet. Hans von der Burchard analysiert, wie sich die Krise in Frankreich auf Brüssel, die Märkte und das deutsch-französische Verhältnis auswirkt. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht Roland Theis (CDU) über das Vertrauen zwischen Paris und Berlin und die Zukunft der deutsch-französischen Achse. Zudem: Konflikte in der Koalition um die Wehrpflicht. Rixa Fürsen erklärt, was die Union mit ihrer „Kontingent-Wehrpflicht“ plant und wie es in diesem neuerlichen Streit zwischen Union und SPD weitergehen wird. Und ein politischer PR-Flop: Podcast-Marketing aus Baden-Württemberg, das mehr kostet als gehört wird. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.

BRUSSELS — EU countries are racing to secure a deal on the bloc’s next seven-year budget before French presidential elections in April 2027, which they fear could hand power to the far right. A seismic political shift in the EU’s second-largest country could disrupt the politically sensitive budget negotiations, which must be unanimously approved by national capitals and are driven by domestic priorities.   The president of the European Council, António Costa — who will broker the final stage of the talks — is working to secure a deal in the Council by the end of 2026, his spokesperson, Maria Tomasik, told reporters on Friday. “At the European Council in December 2026, there will be blood on the walls,” said a senior EU diplomat, anticipating fierce negotiations. The diplomat, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely. While French far-right National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from running for public office after a French court found her guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds, she has challenged the ruling. Even if the decision is confirmed, the party’s second in command, Jordan Bardella, is seen as a serious contender to win the next election. The risk of a far-right victory in France is the main reason why budget negotiations are being fast-tracked, five officials and EU diplomats told POLITICO. That’s because National Rally’s far-right platform — which includes slashing France’s contributions to the EU budget and downsizing military aid to Ukraine — could throw a spanner in the Council negotiations. Jordan Bardella, is seen as a serious contender to win the next election. | Adnan Farzat/Getty Images Fueling the sense of urgency, other major EU countries, including Spain and Italy, are also set to go to the polls in 2027, adding a further layer of uncertainty to the budget talks. This rapid timeline has caused some annoyance among some, such as Italy and Poland, which are critical of the Commission’s €1.816 trillion proposal. They argue that fast-tracking negotiations makes it harder for them to make substantial changes — and plays into the hands of fiscally disciplined Northern countries, who support the Commission’s blueprint.   Costa’s timeline, however, would leave enough time for the European Parliament to make its changes before the budget comes into force on Jan. 1, 2028. BUDGET FAST-TRACK Negotiations on the EU’s next common fund are notoriously torturous. During the last round, a deal was only sealed at the end of a four-night meeting between EU leaders. But veterans of that summit, including Costa, are keen to do things differently this time. For the time being, the Danish Council presidency is fast-tracking technical talks, much to the chagrin of several EU countries that would like more time to review the Commission’s proposal. “We need time to understand better what’s been put on the table and all its implications,” said a second EU diplomat. Earlier this week, Italy and six other EU countries urged a slower pace of negotiations during a meeting of deputy ambassadors. Critics argue that the current deadlines for submitting amendments are unreasonable. Tensions are expected to come to a head next Wednesday during a budget-focused meeting of EU ambassadors. The Danish presidency wants to agree on a counterproposal for the budget — a so-called negotiating box — in time for a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels in December. Three EU diplomats said that Denmark is fast-tracking talks to bring forward the work before the Cypriot presidency, which has a very different set of priorities, takes over in January 2026. CLARIFICATION: This article was updated on Sept. 19 to make the quotation by Maria Tomasik more precise.

PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron has just turned to one of his most trusted lieutenants — Sébastien Lecornu — to break the political impasse paralyzing France. Lecornu, appointed as prime minister last week, is “the guy [Macron] drinks whiskey with at 3 a.m.,” said one government adviser, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. The former armed forces minister also often spends his holidays with Macron at the seaside bastion of Fort de Brégançon. Turning to one of the devoted inner circle has the air of a last desperate throw of the dice. If Lecornu can’t save Macron, it’s hard to see who can. Lecornu is the fifth French prime minister in less than two years and it still seems highly unlikely that he will succeed in forcing the bitterly divided National Assembly to accept the tens of billions of euros of budgetary belt-tightening that are needed to ward off a debt crisis in the EU’s second-largest economy. Even Macron knows it’s a big ask. In comments obtained by POLITICO, the president insisted the task ahead was not impossible, but admitted it was “unprecedented.” So why does Macron think Lecornu might just be the man to strike a deal? In short, the president views him as a fixer who can bridge the political divide. Lecornu got into the president’s good books by building a wide parliamentary consensus over increasing the military budget in 2023, and by helping him defuse the grassroots Yellow Vest protests that gripped the nation in 2018 and 2019. As a former conservative, he has “good relations with Les Républicains party” and represents “continuity” with the president’s past governments, Macron said. On the other hand he has “earned the respect of leftwing forces” by the way he handled France’s rearmament in the wake of the war in Ukraine. And during defense budget talks in 2023 Lecornu was seen as having listened to the opposition and taken their views on board. Sebastien Lecornu is the fifth French prime minister in less than two years. | Pool Photo by Ludovic Marin via Getty Images The key point is that Macron might not send Lecornu into battle unarmed in the way that he did his previous two prime ministers, EU veteran Michel Barnier and the centrist François Bayrou. This time, he could allow his premier to make some meaningful concessions on the core economic agenda. Until now, Macron has battled to keep his key achievements untouched, notably his controversial pension reforms and long-running opposition to tax hikes, despite election defeats in 2022 and 2024. “We’ll have to backtrack on some things, on [canceling two] bank holidays,” Macron said, referring to Bayrou’s draft budget that included removing two bank holidays. “We must be able to find a compromise.” THE MAN FOR THE JOB France’s new prime minister may not be well known to the general public, but while still only 39 years old he has notched a few political successes in his eight years by Macron’s side, honing skills that will be much needed in the weeks ahead. As armed forces minister, Lecornu managed to overcome divisions in a highly fractured parliament and get more than 400 lawmakers to pass his seven-year military programming budget in 2023, which saw increased spending for the military. “Some say it’s easy to negotiate budget increases,” said a close ally of the president. “He will tell you it wasn’t.” Unlike political grandees Bayrou and Barnier, Lecornu has spent the last years in the political trenches at the National Assembly and in local politics. “He knows how mercurial the National Assembly is, he’ll be maneuvering, he’ll be immersed in the debate,” said the same ally. “He knows how to negotiate.” Less well known, but equally important in these politically volatile times, Lecornu was instrumental in helping Macron quell the Yellow Vest protests. As minister for local territories he helped organize a debate between the French president and local representatives in his Normandy constituency. This first successful meeting with the French public led to others, and to a tour of France that helped bring the protests to an end. OFF ON THE WRONG FOOT The true test of Lecornu’s worth still lies ahead and depends on whether he can strike a deal with the Socialists without alienating the conservatives, who look set to continue in government. The risk for Lecornu is he’ll get caught in a bidding war he can’t win: The more he needs a deal, the more concessions opposition parties will demand. There’s disappointment among the Socialists from the outset. The moderate left wanted to see a prime minister appointed from their ranks, and instead will have to deal with one of Macron’s closest allies. As a former conservative, he has “good relations with Les Républicains party” and represents “continuity” with the president’s past governments, Emmanuel Macron said. | Nicolas Economou/Getty Images This week, Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure warned that no Socialist would join Lecornu’s government and “if nothing changes” they would not shy from toppling the government. If the moderate left remains outside the government, they will want to extract a high price for their tacit support. And on budget talks, there’s a massive gap to bridge. The Socialists want to suspend Macron’s flagship reform of pensions, a red line for the president. They also want a tax on France’s ultra-rich individuals, the so-called Zucman tax, which has been slammed by Macron’s centrists as a futile proposal that will just encourage France’s wealthiest to move abroad. Macron, however, has signaled some room for maneuver on the scale of the budget cuts needed. Bayrou’s plans to squeeze the 2026 French budget by €43.8 billion may well be shelved. The president “prefers structural reform to lopping €3 billion off the budget,” said the ally quoted above. There might be a way. “If he refuses the Zucman tax but increases the minimum wage, we’ll take a look,” said a Socialist official. Ultimately, Lecornu’s secret weapon could turn against him. The man who has Macron’s full confidence may have to extract uncomfortable concessions from his own boss — if he wants to survive as prime minister.

PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron’s escape route out of the political and economic crisis gripping France now looks almost impossibly narrow. On Monday, his key ally Prime Minister François Bayrou was toppled in a bloodbath of a no-confidence vote, with 364 lawmakers voting to oust him and only 194 coming out in support. Macron’s office promptly said he would move in “the next few days” to appoint the country’s fifth prime minister in less than two years, but there are grave doubts that the new appointee will prove any more successful than Bayrou in forcing through the tens of billions of euros of budget cuts needed to save the EU’s second-biggest economy from a ballooning debt crisis. Macron is now squarely in the line of public fire, ahead of threats of a national shutdown on Sept. 10 and major protests planned by trade unions on Sept. 18. The president’s popularity has dropped to an all-time low, with polls showing he is more unpopular today than at the peak of the Yellow Vest protests in 2018 and 2019, one of the gravest crises of his tenure. Ever confident in his ability to wriggle, Houdini-like, out of the worst of tangles, Macron is still holding out for a deal with the moderate left, the centrists and the conservative Les Républicains party to form a minority government that can finally reach an agreement over the budget. But Macron is almost certainly clutching at straws in a country that looks increasingly ungovernable. The scale of Bayrou’s defeat in parliament on Monday and the signals emerging from lawmakers already suggest his efforts are doomed from the outset. MACRON TRIES TO HOLD THE CENTER During a day of high drama in parliament, opposition parties rounded on Macron as the protagonist responsible for the stalemate engulfing France. “There is only one person responsible for the crisis, for the fiasco and instability, it’s the president of the Republic,” said Boris Vallaud, the Socialist Party’s parliamentary leader. Communist parliamentary leader Stéphane Peu likened the crisis to “Saving Private Ryan” with Bayrou being “the fourth prime minister to fall to save President Macron.” After the vote, many called for Macron to step down. “The president doesn’t want to change his policies? Well, we’ll have to change president,” said Mathilde Panot, parliamentary head of the far-left France Unbowed party. Macron faces an intense challenge in keeping the center together, while the far-right National Rally — the party that tops the polls — and the far left are on an anti-establishment blitz, threatening to bring down any future administrations that slash public spending. Consolidating the middle ground is difficult because the center-left Socialists and center-right Les Républicains disagree fundamentally on economic policy aims, despite growing fears that France’s inability to put its books in order could ultimately put a strain on the EU’s finances. ALL EYES ON THE SOCIALISTS In his valedictory speech before the National Assembly, Bayrou warned against complacency about the depths of France’s financial mess, saying the nation suffers from a “life-threatening” level of debt. “You have the power to overthrow the government” but not “to erase reality,” he told lawmakers. In his valedictory speech before the National Assembly, François Bayrou warned against complacency about the depths of France’s financial mess, saying the nation suffers from a “life-threatening” level of debt. | Yoan Valat/EPA But very quickly, opposition leaders were already looking to the post-Bayrou scenarios. Sensing an opportunity for the left, the Socialist Vallaud called on the liberal President Macron to “do his duty” and appoint a prime minister from their ranks. “We are ready, come and get us,” he said. He touted “another path” for France that would include what he described as a fairer tax policy, and said the Socialists would row back on Bayrou’s proposed cancellation of two bank holidays. By Monday evening, all sorts of scenarios involving the Socialist Party were being floated. These included a grand coalition running from the conservatives to the Socialists (which is the least likely) and a non-aggression pact that would see the Socialists refraining from toppling a center-right government, led by a left-leaning centrist, in exchange for budget concessions. Also being discussed is a similar arrangement with Les Républicains, which would see the latter refrain from toppling a government from the left in return for concessions on the budget. THE LEFT-RIGHT TIGHTROPE Theoretically, a government backed by both the Socialists and Les Républicains would have wider support in parliament than Bayrou’s outgoing center-right government. But why would the Socialists and Les Républicains — generally at daggers drawn — actually work together? There is a glimmer of a chance that they might see it makes sense to compromise now to keep their parliamentary seats rather than push France into more chaos and risk losing them in a snap election. In reality, though, the risks of failure are high. Laurent Wauquiez, Les Républicains’ parliamentary leader, warned on Monday his party would not support a Socialist government that is too deeply inspired by other more radical left-wing parties with which they stood in last year’s election, as part of a pan-leftist grouping called the New Popular Front. “We would never accept the nefarious political platform of the New Popular Front,” said Wauquiez. “And that obviously applies to any Socialist government that carries the ideas of the New Popular Front.” Additionally, with local elections set for March 2026, no opposition parties will really want to ally themselves with a president surround by an aura of fin de règne. And even if the party top brass in the center parties agreed to cooperate on a budget, there is no guarantee the rank and file lawmakers would follow. Take the Bayrou vote as an example. On Monday, Les Républicains, were conspicuously divided on the no-confidence vote, with 27 voting to support Bayrou and 13 against, despite calls from Les Républicains’ head and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau to back the government. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen also cast doubt on Macron’s ability to hold the center, and to get any left-right alliance to agree on a budget. The only option, as she saw it, was to call an election. “Dissolving parliament will not be option, but an obligation,” she said. But that election would also probably do little to heal the divisions at the heart of the crippling national impasse.

PARIS — French lawmakers toppled Prime Minister François Bayrou’s minority government on Monday evening, thrusting the country deeper into a political crisis that will force President Emmanuel Macron to name a fifth premier in less than two years.   Macron’s office hasn’t said whether he will speak tonight. But Macron has limited options to steer France out of this crisis. He is reportedly leaning toward appointing another prime minister — the fifth since January 2024 — but a new premier would face the same intractable parliament. So too would a technical government made up of civil servants.   Another snap election looks unappetizing, though, as it could easily deliver another hung parliament.   In an extreme scenario, Macron could even resign, but that’s highly unlikely given his past statements.