BERLIN — U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to restore “European greatness” by bolstering the continent’s nationalist parties is already being put into action. Trump administration officials and European far-right leaders from Paris to Washington have taken part in a flurry of meetings in the days since the release of the U.S. National Security Strategy, underscoring that the U.S. president’s desire to bolster “patriotic European parties” is not an abstract vision but rather a manual for change that is being pursued from the ground up. Last week, U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah Rogers met with far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party politician Markus Frohnmaier in Washington. Frohnmaier said the two discussed the recently released National Security Strategy, which asserted that Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to migration and the loss of national identity, a message that AfD politicians embrace. “Washington is looking for a strong German partner who is willing to take on responsibility,” Frohnmaier wrote in an online post following the meeting. “Germany should re-establish itself as a capable leading power through a decisive shift in migration policy and the independent organization of European security.” Frohnmaier was one of about 20 AfD politicians who travelled to Washington and New York last week to meet with sympathizers and Trump administration officials. AfD leaders have increasingly sought to forge links with MAGA Republicans, viewing the Trump administration’s backing as a way to secure domestic legitimacy and end their political ostracization. Frohnmaier, the deputy chair of the AfD’s parliamentary group, was also an “honored guest” at the annual gala of the the New York Young Republican Club on Saturday. The New York City-based group has openly backed the AfD, declaring “AfD über alles” (AfD above all) — an adaptation of a nationalist phrase associated with Germany’s Nazi past. “The alliance between American and German patriots is the nightmare of the liberal elites, and it is the hope of the free world,” Frohnmaier said in a speech during the event. The recent meetings are a continuation of ongoing outreach efforts between Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement and ideologically aligned European parties. British Reform leader Nigel Farage, a longtime Trump ally, stopped off at the Oval Office during a U.S. visit in September. In November Trump political adviser Alex Brusewitz met with AfD leaders in Berlin, where he proclaimed that the MAGA movement in the U.S. had common cause with the German party. AfD leaders have increasingly sought to forge links with MAGA Republicans. | Jan-Philipp Strobel/Getty Images Trump has also long expressed support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, although he told POLITICO’s Dasha Burns in an interview last week for a special edition of “The Conversation” that he had not promised an Argentina-style bailout to boost Orbán’s election chances next year. In Paris, U.S. Ambassador to France Charles Kushner met with French far-right leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella days after the publication of the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy. Kushner said he “appreciated the chance” to learn about the far-right leaders’ “economic and social agenda and their views on what lies ahead for France.” As the father of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and diplomatic adviser, the elder Kushner has a direct line to the White House. In his POLITICO interview last week Trump said he could move to endorse political candidates aligned with his own vision for Europe. Kushner has also met the heads of at least two other French parties in recent weeks, but a spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in France suggested the meetings weren’t part of a coordinated effort to support the far right in Europe: “As a matter of standard practice, the U.S. Mission in France engages regularly with a broad range of political parties and leaders, and we will continue to do so.” Yet unlike Germany’s AfD leaders, Le Pen and Bardella — as well as other politicians in their far-right National Rally — have been reluctant to fully embrace Trump given his unpopularity in France, even among many members of their own party. As for the AfD, its outreach to willing partners in the U.S. is set to continue. Frohnmaier said he would invite U.S. lawmakers to a Berlin congress in February aimed at deepening ties with MAGA Republicans. Pauline von Pezold contributed to this report.

Czech President Petr Pavel on Monday officially swore in the country’s new right-wing coalition government led by populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, which could join ranks with Hungary and Slovakia in opposing aid to Ukraine. The appointment ends weeks of uncertainty over whether the president would approve Babiš as Czechia’s new leader. Pavel said last week he would name Babiš prime minister after the tycoon pledged to divest his ownership of Agrofert, an agricultural conglomerate and a major recipient of EU subsidies. Babiš’ comeback (he previously served as PM from 2017 to 2021) poses a fresh headache for Europe as it struggles to finance aid to war-ravaged Ukraine. Over the weekend Babiš came out against a proposal to finance Kyiv via a loan based on Russia’s frozen assets, joining the growing list of countries that have rejected the instrument. “The European Commission must find other ways to finance Ukraine,” Babiš announced Saturday on Facebook. “Our coffers are empty, and we need every crown [unit of Czech currency] we have for our citizens.” The billionaire’s previous term in power was marked by clashes with Brussels over his conflict of interest related to Agrofert. Since then Babiš has steered his ANO party firmly to the right, joined the far-right European Parliament grouping Patriots for Europe, and threatened to cancel a Prague-led ammunition initiative that has delivered over 1 million rounds to Kyiv. Babiš won a parliamentary election in October and proceeded to clinch a coalition deal with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and right-wing Motorists. All three parties share a commitment to rolling back support for climate measures such as the ETS2 emissions trading system, and to opposing Brussels’ plans to ban combustion engines. ANO will hold nine ministerial posts in the new Cabinet, including the premiership, with the Motorists taking four and the SPD three. Speaking at the inauguration ceremony Pavel promised to closely monitor how the incoming government safeguards democratic institutions, including the media, the judiciary and the country’s security forces. Babiš earlier raised concerns about media freedom with his plan to reform public broadcasting by abolishing license fees and funding it through the state budget. The president also noted that Czechia’s key safety and economic guarantees stem from its EU and NATO membership. “That is why we should approach membership in these institutions with the utmost responsibility and be responsible, constructive members rather than rejecters,” Pavel said.

FORGET THE FAR RIGHT. THE KIDS WANT A ‘UNITED STATES OF EUROPE.’  On social media, the upcoming generation is expressing more European solidarity than the continent has seen in decades. By NICHOLAS VINCOUR Illustration by Joanne Joo for POLITICO A futuristic EU soldier stands guard, laser blaster at the ready. European fighter jets zoom through the sky over thumping Eurodance beats. An imaginary map shows a vastly enlarged EU, swallowing everything from Greenland to the Caucasus.  Welcome to the wild world of pro-Europe online propaganda, where the EU isn’t a fractious club of 27 countries but a juiced-up superpower on par with China or the United States, only wiser and more cultured.  This type of content, which re-imagines the EU as a pan-European empire, a European Federation or the United States of Europe — take your pick — has flooded social media platforms over the past two years, garnering billions of views collectively on X, TikTok and Instagram as the EU has reeled from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a U.S.-EU trade deal decried as “humiliation” for Brussels in many parts of Europe. In the face of withering attacks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who called European leaders “weak” in an interview with POLITICO, as well as anti-EU tirades from X owner Elon Musk, such pro-EU memes are flowing thicker and faster than ever. Its mainstays are Soviet-style propaganda posters featuring the EU’s ring of stars emblem, video montages with soaring drone shots of European monuments and memes where the EU’s strengths — from its laid-back work culture to rich cultural heritage — are favorably compared to other parts of the world, namely Donald Trump’s America.  Scrolling through these posts, it can be tempting to shrug off the entire trend as meaningless “AI slopaganda” (AI-generated content does loom large). Indeed the hyper-confident Europe envisioned by accounts with names like “European propagandist” or “Ave Europa” bears little resemblance to the actual EU, where leaders remain divided over everything from how to finance Ukraine’s war next year to what reforms should be undertaken to reverse a long trend of economic decline.  But for the people behind these accounts, the point isn’t to stick too closely to the day-to-day reality of EU politics. It’s to generate a sense of agency, vision and possibility at a time when bullying from Trump, expansionism from Russia and competition between U.S. and China have left young Europeans feeling powerless. POLITICO reached out to 11 of the users behind the accounts and learned that they were real people with widely differing political views ranging from left-wing to the hard-right, and used different terms to describe where they stood on Europe. Some called their beliefs “Eurofed,” short for European federalist. Others described themselves as pan-European imperialist, emphasizing the notion of a European “civilization” to defend rather than any existing political setup.   One thing they all had in common: They were under the age of 35. “People are looking to escape powerlessness… to regain action and sovereignty and act on things,” said Christelle Savall, president of the Young Federalists Association Europe, a non-profit advocacy group that has existed since 1972 but has recently seen a surge in membership  For years, Europe’s dominant political narrative has been that the far right is ascendant and the only question is how much further it will rise and how much more it will corrode the eighty-year-old project that grew out of the ashes of World War II to become the European Union. These online warriors believe that is flat-out wrong and that the future lies with a stronger Europe, a view reflected in a growing swell of opinion in the real world. Just as the MAGA online movement mirrored and fueled the rise of Trump before the 2016 presidential election, Europe’s online glowup is reflected in polls showing support for the EU at an all-time high.   Strong majorities of Europeans across all age groups now favor more deeply integrated security and defense, according to the 2025 Eurobarometer survey. Another poll across nine European countries showed that most Germans — 69 percent — favor the creation of an EU army, a prospect often scoffed at by sitting leaders as a pipe dream.  And there are hints that, far from existing in an online vacuum, this youth-driven burst in pro-EU feelings can also help to win elections. Rob Jettens, the 38-year-old centrist who recently won the most votes in Dutch elections, is one of the gang as far as some young federalists are concerned. A pan-European party called Volt Europa, which defines itself as centrist or center-left, has grown its footprint significantly since its launch in 2017, including a foothold in the European Parliament.  “The center right Eurofed group is more and more turning from an online phenomenon to a real-life movement… They try to create something akin to a centrist to right-wing alternative to Volt,” wrote the holder of the X account European Challenges, who described himself as a 25–35-year-old STEM graduate in high-tech. I agreed to grant him anonymity due to concern about being “doxxed” or harassed by other social media users and not wanting users to focus on his nationality, which would be evident from his name.  For Joseph de Weck, a foreign policy analyst and author of a biography on French President Emmanuel Macron, this surge in youthful patriotism is being missed by leaders and many media outlets who are obsessively focused on the far-right. “It’s a fundamental mistake… Public opinion has changed,” he said.   The reality, he argues, is that Europe’s far-right itself is no longer, for the most part, anti-European but merely critical of certain policies emanating from Brussels, like its push for net zero carbon emissions. The big political fight in coming years won’t be over whether to dismantle the European Union, he argues, but over which version of a more federalist bloc will prevail. “No one is putting into question the existence of the EU anymore, but they fundamentally disagree [on] what they should do,” he added.  A FRAGILE UNION  The idea that Europe — ground zero for two world wars — should abolish national borders and form up into a unified polity isn’t new. In 1849, speaking to the International Peace Congress in Paris, French author Victor Hugo predicted that “a day will come when you France, you Russia, you Italy, you England, you Germany, you all, nations of the continent, without losing your distinct qualities and your glorious individuality will be merged closely within a superior unit and you will form the European brotherhood.”   That idea was forgotten at the outset of a 20th century marked by savage nationalism. But it reemerged forcefully in the aftermath of World War II, when a group of European countries formed the European Economic Community in 1957. Six years later, in a speech to the Irish Dáil, former U.S. President John F. Kennedy called for a “United States of Europe,” urging leaders to form a “political federation of Europe, not as a rival to the United States but as a partner.”  In subsequent decades the European Union, which was formally created in 1992, massively expanded its membership to 28 countries and more than 500 million citizens, and even after Brexit it has 27 countries and 450 million citizens. The union made the huge leap of abolishing border controls between some countries in 1995, introduced a single currency, the euro, in 1999, and over time created the Schengen free travel zone.   But that’s about as far as things got. Kennedy’s vision of a “United States of Europe” ran headlong into the nationalism of leaders like France’s Charles de Gaulle, who famously poured cold water on the prospect of a European federalism. “States, once created, have their own existence that cannot be dissolved. They are irreversibly individual,” he wrote in his “Memoir of Hope” published in 1970.  A group of young girls sit in the European Parliament chamber in Brussels. | Michael Currie/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images While endorsing expansion, European leaders have consistently resisted taking any steps that would turn the EU into a real federation — namely an integrated army and a fiscal transfer union where tax resources are seamlessly redistributed. Even after the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw EU capitals centralize aspects of health policy in Brussels, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has led to some centralization of defense policy, the mood that now prevails among Europe’s leaders is one of “euro-realism” — code for, don’t try anything crazy, it will only help the far-right.   Even Macron, who swept to power in 2017 in France with a staunchly pro-European campaign, seems to have given in to the prevailing mood.  Mario Draghi, a former Italian prime minister and ex-central bank chief whom many federalists hold up as their mascot, has acknowledged as much. Given widespread reluctance to rock the boat, he argued in an October speech that Europe should embrace “pragmatic federalism,” i.e. coalitions of like-minded countries acting in concert on specific areas of interest instead of any big leaps forward.  Czechia’s outgoing foreign minister, Jan Lipavsky, described the current attitude among EU leaders as “not idealistic” in a recent POLITICO interview. A few days later, Belgium’s defense minister brushed off the idea of a European army. “Anyone who believes in a European army is selling castles in the air,” he told local outlet Humo.  REDDIT SUB-GROUP BATTLES   Yet it so happens that castles in the air — i.e. big jumps forward — is exactly what Europe’s young boosters want, and they’re tired of hearing that they’re too idealistic. “A direct election of the commission president… is absolutely necessary. As long as that doesn’t happen, the EU will not get more trust,” the European Challenges account holder wrote to me in a DM.  Savall says young Europeans yearn for politicians who can articulate a strategic view of where Europe is headed, rather than fighting out the domestic political battle of the day. “There’s long-term [vision], but no one is selling it,” she said, noting that membership in her group grew 6 percent in 2024 to 10,000. In October, with other pro-federalist groups, it relaunched the Action Committee for a United States of Europe which had been dormant for decades. A key driver for new adherents was the EU-U.S. trade deal inked by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Turnberry, Scotland, which was widely panned as a humiliation for the bloc. “It was disappointing because Europe’s power was its trade mandate. Soft power was commerce,” said Savall.  Other pro-federalist or pan-European groups report a similar jump in membership. Membership in Ave Europa, a federalist group founded in March of this year which describes itself as “center-right”, has gained 400–500 members since its launch. Board member Nikodem Skrobisz wrote that the tense Oval Office meeting last February between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump, in which Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated their guest, had spurred the group’s launch. “A wave of Europatriotism swept the continent in defiance to the Trumpist attempts to humiliate our continent,” he wrote in a message to me. “The subsequent trade and tariff disputes further demonstrated that Europe can no longer rely on others to defend its interests; and with every MAGA attack against Europe, we saw a new wave of recruits boost our ranks.”   Not all pro-Europeans share the same roadmap, however. “I think the term ‘European federalism’ is just misplaced for this day and age… Europe will probably head towards greater centralization and will more closely resemble a confederation of some sorts,” said Alex Asgari, a Czech-American 25-year-old lobbyist in Washington, D.C., who previously worked as a Republican aide in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Indeed, federalists are far from being a politically homogenous group. Several meme warriors told me that there is an ideological battle ongoing in the dank recesses of federalist Reddit subgroups and chatrooms between broadly centrist people who believe in boosting the power of existing Brussels institutions, and far-right people who hate Brussels but nonetheless want Europe to assert itself on the world stage. The big divider is identity politics and migration policy: far-right groups tend to envision Europe as a culturally and ethnically homogenous “empire” — read, white and Christian, preferably Catholic — that keeps foreigners out.  “I limit potential membership to countries that have a Latin-European model of social life… only a Civilisationally homogeneous state has the right to function stably,” said the user of an account named Sacrum Imperium, a 30-year-old law student whom I agreed not to identify by name because they said expressing political views in public could be detrimental to their career. The user also voiced skepticism about Brussels, advocating limited competences for EU institutions. “The optimal division of competences… should provide for tasks at European level only those that are necessary and cannot be carried out at national level,” they added.  EUROPE OR BUST   For de Weck, the point is not that these young Europeans don’t see eye to eye, but that their frame of reference is Europe — not the domestic political debate of France, Germany or any other EU member country. This marks a profound shift compared to 2016, when Britain’s vote to leave the European Union was widely seen as heralding other EU exits, and euroskeptic politicians ranging from France’s Marine Le Pen to Austria’s Sebastian Kurk and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders dominated headlines.  Indeed, a big factor linking pro-Europe online users is their youth. With all reporting their age as under 35, these Europeans may or may not have witnessed the last big surge of euro-idealism around the turn of the century, when the euro currency was introduced in several countries and the overtly pro-EU movie “The Spanish Apartment” (L’Auberge Espagnole” originally) promoted Europe’s Erasmus student program as an ideal way to find love. But they have all been through what came after this period of optimism: terrorism, a surge in migration, the rise of far-right parties across Europe and, more recently, Russia’s aggressive expansionism and the collapse of a U.S.-led post-World War II order.   A giant EU flag is unfurled during Europe Day celebrations in Milan in May. | Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty Images Such upheavals, combined with other problems — like grinding economic decline and an ageing population — have painted Europe as a victim, or at least a losing party, in the minds of many youths. It’s a feeling that these people are rebelling against — and one that may well fuel the rise of a new generation of much more Europe-minded, if not overtly federalist, politicians in coming years.  For now, it’s still populists and their favorite rivals, centrists such as France’s Macron, who continue to occupy headlines. In the past decade hard-right leaders have won elections, becoming prime ministers in Austria and Italy, or political kingmakers, as was the case with Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders in 2023. The prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, has been in power since 2010, positioning himself as an arch-opponent of Brussels-based EU institutions.  But the reality is that, unlike in 2016 when Europe feared a wave of Brexit-style “-exits,” none of these leaders now advocates pulling their country out of the bloc. In a recent chat with POLITICO, Orbán’s political director said that despite virulent criticism of the EU as currently configured, Budapest still sees its place firmly within the EU. “We want to be inside. We are part of the club,” said the aide, Balasz Orbán (no relation). Similarly, Czechia’s populist incoming prime minister Andrej Babiš, though no fan of Brussels, has gone so far as to rule out a referendum on his country’s membership in the EU or NATO in his government manifesto.  Could this be the first hint of a tectonic shift in European politics? Ave Europa, the group founded in March, plans to run candidates in the next EU elections. Volt Europa, a pan-European, federalist party, won five seats in the most recent European Parliament elections, and now has 30 national chapters both inside and outside the EU. To grow much bigger, such parties would benefit from a change to the European Parliament’s rules that would allow candidates to compete for a number of EU-wide seats in transnational campaigns, versus the current system whereby campaigns are nationally bound — a change that Savall of the Young Federalists points to as her group’s “No. 1” policy priority.  But to become a reality, it would have to be embraced by the EU’s current leaders, who haven’t shown much interest in recent years. The United States of Europe may not become a reality in the next few months, or even years. But its online cheerleaders are determined to bring that horizon closer — one “EU soldier” meme at a time. 

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music He’s not even European — yet Donald Trump has topped POLITICO’s annual P28 ranking of the most powerful people who will shape Europe in 2026. EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton takes you inside the gala in Brussels — where commissioners, MEPs, diplomats, lobbyists and journalists packed into a glittering room, even as the mood underneath the sparkle felt unusually tense. At the event, Ursula von der Leyen sat down with Carrie Budoff Brown, POLITICO’s executive editor, for an exclusive on-stage conversation — offering one of her first public reactions to Trump’s sharp criticism of EU leaders as “weak,” and Washington’s dramatic new security strategy, which seeks to undermine them. Be sure to check out the full 2026 ranking here. Plus, we bring you Sarah’s conversation with Balázs Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister’s political director, who offers a perspective far outside the Brussels mainstream — on Ukraine, on Europe’s political direction, and on where he believes the EU keeps going wrong. And finally, we have a taste of Anne McElvoy’s interview with Nick Thomas-Symonds, the U.K.’s minister for European relations (for more, head to: Politics at Sam and Anne’s ). And if you haven’t yet, listen to the exclusive interview our colleague Dasha Burns did with Donald Trump on our sister podcast The Conversation.

EUROPE’S CENTER ISN’T HOLDING ANYMORE Despite recent election wins for moderates in the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K., the far right is stronger than ever. By TIM ROSS in Jaywick, England Illustration by Merijn Hos for POLITICO In recent elections, voters in Europe have given hope to embattled centrist politicians across the Western world.   Donald Trump may have romped back into the White House, but the international movement of MAGA-aligned populists has run into trouble across the Atlantic. At elections in the U.K., France, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania — and in a sprawling vote across 27 EU countries for the European Parliament — mainstream candidates defeated populist hardliners and far-right nationalists.  “There remains a majority in the center for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, after the EU Parliament elections last year. “In other words, the center is holding.”   Sixteen months later, that hold is looking anything but secure.    Hard-right and far-right politicians are now leading the polls in France, the U.K. and even Germany. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval rating is a dire 21 percent. His French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, is even lower, at 11 percent — and the mood is so grim that this fall’s spectacular theft at the Louvre is being treated by some as a giant metaphor for a country unable to manage its challenges.   Even von der Leyen’s own EU conservatives now rely on the votes of far right lawmakers to get her plans approved in Brussels. One outraged centrist likened the shift to those German politicians who enabled Adolf Hitler to take power. Populists at the extremes, meanwhile, cast themselves as the obvious alternative for populations that want change. And now they can expect Trump to help: In a brutal rupture of transatlantic norms, a new U.S. National Security Strategy aims to use American diplomacy to cultivate “resistance” to political correctness in Europe — especially on migration — and to support parties it describes as “patriotic.” Trump himself told POLITICO he would endorse candidates he believed would move Europe in the right direction. On that rightward trajectory, in the next four years the political map of the West faces its most dramatic upheaval since the Cold War. The implications for geopolitics, from trade to defense, could be profound.   “What [Europeans are] getting from Trump is the strategy of maximum polarization that hollows out the center,” said Will Marshall from the Progressive Policy Institute, the centrist American think tank that backed Bill Clinton in the 1990s. “The old established parties of left and right that dominated the post war era have gotten weaker,” he said. “The nationalist or populist right’s revolt is against them.”  Nowhere is this recent transformation more dramatic than in the U.K.   As the sun sinks toward the horizon over a calm sea one Thursday evening in November, half a dozen regulars huddle around the bar in the Never Say Die pub, a few yards from the beach at Jaywick Sands, on the east coast of England.   Built in the 1930s as a resort 70 miles from London, Jaywick is now the most deprived neighborhood in the country. The area had such a bad image that in 2018 a U.S. MAGA ad used a photograph of a dilapidated Jaywick street to warn of the apocalyptic future facing America if Trump’s candidates were not elected.   Jaywick was named England’s most deprived neighbourhood in October — for the fourth time since 2010. | Tolga Akmen/EPA It is here among the pebbledashed bungalows and England flags hanging limp from lampposts that a new political force — Nigel Farage’s rightwing Reform UK — has built its heartland.   At the bar, Dave Laurence, 82, says he doesn’t vote, as a rule, but made an exception for Farage, who was elected to represent the area last year. “I quite like him. He’s doing the best he can,” Laurence says as he sips his pint of lager, with ’80s pop hits playing in the background. “I’ll vote for him again.”  Laurence freely describes himself as “racist” and says he would never vote for a Black person, such as the center-right Conservative Party’s leader Kemi Badenoch. What troubles him most, he says, is the number of immigrants who have arrived in the U.K. during his lifetime, especially those crossing the Channel in small boats. Soon, Laurence fears, the country will be “full of Muslims and they’ll fucking rebel against us.”  With its anti-establishment, immigration-fighting agenda, Farage’s Reform UK offers voters a program tightly in tune with far-right parties that have gained ground across the West. According to opinion polls, Farage now has a real chance of becoming the U.K.’s next prime minister if the vote were held today. (A general election is not due until 2029).   It’s startling to note that as recently as July 2024, Starmer’s Labour Party won a historic landslide and some of his triumphant election aides traveled to the U.S. to advise Democrats on strategy. Today, Starmer is derided as “First Gear Keir” as he fights off leadership rivals rumored to be trying to oust him. And Reform isn’t the only force remaking British party politics. To the left of Labour, the Greens have also made recent gains in the polls under a new leader calling himself an “eco-populist.”   Farage’s stunning rise from the sidelines to the front of a political revolution carries lessons well beyond Britain’s borders. Europeans raised in the old school of mainstream politics fear that the traditional centerground — their home turf — will not hold.   ‘DURABLY UNSTABLE’   Macron, for his part, tried to counter the rise of the hard right by calling a snap election for the French National Assembly last year. The gamble backfired, delivering a hung parliament that has been unable to agree on key economic policies ever since. Macron is now historically unpopular.   French lawmakers’ clashes over the budget have toppled three of Macron’s picks as prime minister since the summer of 2024. A backlash against his plan to raise the pension age has forced ratings agencies to mull a damaging downgrade. Macron, who himself became president by launching a new centrist movement to rival the political establishment, now has no traditional party machinery to help bolster his position. “He’ll leave a political landscape that is perhaps durably unstable. It’s unforgivable,” said Alain Minc, an influential adviser and former mentor to the French president.  The chaos gives populists their chance. The main politicians making any running in conversations about the next presidential election belong to the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen and its youthful party president Jordan Bardella, who are riding high in the polls at 34 percent.   In Germany, too, the center ground is steadily eroding.   Though Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won a snap election in February, his ideologically uneasy coalition, which consists of his own conservative bloc and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), holds one of the slimmest parliamentary majorities for a government since 1945, with just 52 percent of seats. That leaves the Merz coalition vulnerable to small defections within the ranks and makes it hard for him to achieve anything ambitious in government. The far-left Die Linke party and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) both surged at the last election, too, with AfD winning the best result in a national election for any far-right party since World War II.  Merz’s attempt to defang the AfD by moving his conservatives sharply to the right on the issue of migration seems to have backfired. The AfD has only continued its rise, surpassing Merz’s conservatives in many polls.   The rise of the far-right is a cultural shock to many centrist Germans, given the country’s deeply entrenched desire to avoid repeating its past. “For a long time in Germany we thought with our history, and the way we teach in our schools, we would be a bit more immune to that,” one concerned German official said. “It turned out we are not.”   Even in the Netherlands, where centrist Rob Jetten won a famous but narrow victory over the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders in October, there are reasons for mainstream politicians to worry. Wilders’ Freedom Party is still one of the biggest forces in the land, winning the same number of seats as Jetten’s D66. He could well return next time, just as Trump did in the U.S.   WHERE DID ALL THE VOTERS GO?   According to polling firm Ipsos, a large proportion of voters in many Western democracies now have little faith in the political process. While they still believe in democratic values, they are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working for them.   A large survey questioning around 10,000 voters across nine countries found 45 percent were dissatisfied, fueling support for the extremes. Among voters on the far left (57 percent) and the far right (54 percent), levels of dissatisfaction were highest of all.   The countries with the highest rates of dissatisfaction in the Ipsos study were France and the Netherlands, where political upheaval has taken its toll on faith in the system.   Anti-riot police officers stand next to a demonstration called by far-right activist Els Rechts against the Netherlands’ current asylum policy, in September in The Hague. | Josh Walet/ANP via Getty Images Alongside the coronavirus pandemic and the aftermath of lockdowns, the biggest drivers of dissatisfaction were the cost of living, immigration and crime, according to Gideon Skinner from Ipsos. Trust in politics fell in the 90s and took another hit in the late 2000s at the time of the financial crash, he said.   “There may be specific things that have made it worse over the last couple of years but it’s also a long-term condition,” Skinner told POLITICO. “It’s something we do need to worry about and there is not a silver bullet that can fix it all.”  Perhaps the greatest problem for incumbent centrists is that in most cases their economies are so moribund that they lack the fiscal firepower to spend money addressing the issues disillusioned voters care about most — like high living costs, ailing public services and migration.  THE INEQUALITY EMERGENCY   The financial crisis of 2008 and the coronavirus lockdowns of 2020-21 left many governments strapped for cash. In the U.K., for example, the economy was 16 percent smaller than it should have been a decade after the 2008 crash if prior growth trends had continued, according to Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London.   “Crucially, the impact of the financial crisis, like the impact of so much else in our politics, was massively unequal,” Menon said. “Prosperous places with high productivity, with well-educated workforces suffered far, far less than poorer parts of the country.”   Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz submitted a study to the G20 in November warning that the world was facing an “inequality emergency.” Fueled by war, pandemic and trade disruptions, the crisis risks preparing the ground for more authoritarian leaders, his report said.   In many Western countries, the centerground is more than just a metaphor. It is in capital cities like London, Paris and Washington that power and money accumulate and the economic and political elites seek to maintain their grip on the status quo.   The further you travel from these centers out to areas in decline, the more likely you are to find support for radical politics.   As Menon notes, Britain’s 2016 revolution — the referendum vote to leave the European Union after almost half a century of membership — can be mapped onto the culinary geography of the country.   “Pret a Manger” is a smart national chain of sandwich and coffee shops, catering for hungry commuters and office workers in wealthy, successful British cities. “Places that had a Pret voted Remain,” Menon said. Parts of the U.K. where median wages were lower were disproportionately likely to vote to leave the EU.   IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION   After the Brexit vote in 2016, immigration slid from the top of the priority list for British voters and Farage himself took a step back. Both have now returned, as Farage rides a wave of headlines about irregular migrants landing in small boats from France.   From January to May this year, there were a record 14,800 small boat crossings, 42 percent more than in the same period in the previous year, according to Oxford University’s Migration Observatory.   For Laurence, in the Never Say Die pub, the small boats represent the biggest issue of all. “What’s going to happen in 10 years’ time? What’s going to happen in 20 years’ time when the boat people are still coming over?” he asked.   A decade ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the doors to hundreds of thousands of refugees arriving into Europe from Syria, as well as Afghanistan and Iraq. The AfD surged in the months that followed, permanently changing German politics. At February’s election, the AfD won a record 21 percent of the vote, finishing in second place behind Merz’s conservative bloc.  “The fundamental failure that is common to the whole [centrist] transatlantic community is on immigration,” said Marshall from the Progressive Policy Institute. “All of the far-right movements have made it their top issue.”   It is the perceived threat that waves of migration pose to traditional national cultures which drives much of the support for the far right. Trump’s White House is now primed to join the European nationalists’ fight. According to a new U.S. National Security Strategy document released in December, Europe is facing “civilisational erasure” from unrestricted immigration, as well as falling birthrates. The analysis draws on the so-called great replacement theory, a racist conspiracy theory. Free speech — in the MAGA definition, at least — is another casualty of conventional centrist rule in Europe, as political correctness veers into “censorship,” the U.S. document said. Protesters demostrate under the motto “Loud against Nazis” in early February in Berlin. After years of decline, The Left party  pulled off a stunning revival in the general election later that month. | John MacDougall via AFP/Getty Images In his interview with POLITICO earlier this week, Trump aligned himself fully with the strategy paper. European nations are “decaying” and their “weak” leaders can expect to be challenged by rivals with American support, he said. “I’d endorse,” he added. In Brussels, the double-punch of the president’s interview and the strategy document left diplomats and officials feeling bruised and alarmed all over again, after a period in which they allowed themselves to hope that the transatlantic alliance wasn’t dying. One EU diplomat was blunt in assessing Trump’s new method: “It’s autocracy.” THE STOLEN JEWELS  Sometimes, it takes a random news event — ostensibly unconnected to politics — to crystalize the national mood. In Paris, the theft of France’s priceless crown jewels from the Louvre provided just such an opportunity, morphing into an indictment of an establishment that can’t get the job done, even when the job simply involves thoroughly locking the windows at the world’s most famous museum. National Rally leader Jordan Bardella called the incident a “humiliation” before asking: “How far will the breakdown of the state go?”   In Britain, just a month after Starmer’s victory last year, riots broke out across the country, fueled by far-right extremists. The catalyst was the murder of three young girls aged 6, 7 and 9, in Southport, northwest England, by a Black teenager wrongly identified at the time on social media — in posts amplified by the far-right — as a Muslim.   At the time, Farage suggested the police were withholding the truth about the suspect, earning him the fury of mainstream politicians. While stressing he did not support violence, Farage railed against what he called “two-tier policing,” a phrase popular among far-right commentators who claim police treat right-wing protesters more harshly than those on the left.  It’s an opinion that resonates in Jaywick. Chennelle Rutland, 56, is walking her two dogs along the beachfront, admiring the view as the sun sets, flaring the sky orange, then purple. The colors catch the surface of the flat sea. “It’s one rule for one and one rule for the other,” she says. “The whites have got to shut up because if you do say anything, you’re ‘racist’ and ‘far right.’”   Far-right activist Tommy Robinson invited his supporters to attend the “Unite The Kingdom” rally in September. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images It would be wrong to characterise residents of Jaywick as simply ignorant or full of rage. Many who spoke to POLITICO there were cheerful, happy with their community and up to speed with the news. But, just as they’d soured on their country’s centrist establishment, they were also tuning out its favored news sources.   In Jaywick, some of Farage’s voters prefer GB News, Britain’s answer to Fox News, which launched in 2021, or learn about current affairs from YouTube and other social media. The BBC — for decades the mainstay of the British media landscape — has lost a portion of its audience here. Right-wing commentators and politicians attack it as biased. Trump has lately joined in, threatening to sue over a BBC edit that he said deceptively made it look as if he was explicitly inciting violence. The BBC’s director general and head of news both resigned. In the process, another piece of Britain’s onetime centerground was giving way.   WHAT NEXT?   There are reasons for centrists to hope. In Rome, Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right Brothers of Italy party has become less extreme in power, and the worst fears of moderates about a group with its historic roots in neo-fascism have not come to pass. She remains popular, and while pushing a culture war at home, she has avoided the wrath of the EU leadership and kept Trump onside.   Populists and nationalists don’t always win. Trump lost in 2020. In the Netherlands, Wilders lost in October this year, though only by a whisker. Romania’s Nicușor Dan won the presidency as a centrist in May, but again only narrowly defeating his far-right opponent.   Structural obstacles may also slow the radicals’ progress. The U.K.’s first-past-the-post voting system makes it hard for new parties to do well. The two-round French system has so far stopped Le Pen’s National Rally from gaining power as centrists combine to back moderates. In Germany, a similar “firewall” exists under which center parties keep the far-right out.   After the Brexit vote in 2016, immigration slid from the top of the priority list for British voters and Farage himself took a step back. Both have now returned. | Tolga Akmen/EPA Even as he enjoys a sustained lead in the polls and wins local elections in the U.K., Farage has not convinced voters that Reform would do a good job. Even some of his supporters worry he will be out of his depth in government.   The problem, for the centrists who are in power, is that a lot of voters seem to think they, too, are out of their depth. And, whether that involves dealing with migration, combatting inequality, or just boosting the security around the Mona Lisa, it’s a reputation they’ll need to fix in order to survive — no easy task given the intractability of the challenges facing the rich world.  The next year will see more elections at which the centrists — and their populists rivals — will be tested. In Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long seen as the far-right bad boy of EU politics, is fighting to keep power at an election expected in April. There are regional votes in Germany where the AfD is on track to prosper. France may require yet another snap election to end its political paralysis. Trump’s diplomats and officials will be ready to intervene. Farage’s party, too, will be on the ballot in 2026: It is expected to make gains in Wales, Scotland and local votes elsewhere next spring. After that, his sights will be on the U.K. general election expected in 2029, by which time European politics may look very different.   “Of course I know Mr. Orban and of course I know Giorgia Meloni, of course I know these people,” Farage told POLITICO at a recent Reform rally. “I suspect that after the next election cycle in Europe there will be even more that I know.” Natalie Fertig in Washington, Clea Caulcutt in Paris and James Angelos in Berlin contributed to this report.  

National Rally leader Jordan Bardella is insisting he doesn’t need help from U.S. President Donald Trump to shape France’s political future as his far-right party guns for the presidency in 2027. “I’m French, so I’m not happy with vassalage, and I don’t need a big brother like Trump to consider the fate of my country,” he said in an interview with The Telegraph published late Tuesday. Concern over potential U.S. involvement in European far-right politics has spiked since last week’s publication of America’s National Security Strategy, in which Washington advocates “cultivating resistance” to boost the nationalist surge in Europe. That puts Bardella in a tricky spot. Broadly he agrees with Trump’s anti-migrant vision, as mapped out in the strategy, but is wary of direct U.S. involvement in a country where polling suggests Trump is very unpopular. The National Rally is not directly embracing U.S. Republicans, as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is doing. Bardella said he “shared [Trump’s] assessment for the most part” in an interview with the BBC’s Political Thinking podcast. “It is true that mass immigration and the laxity of our leaders … are today disrupting the power balance of European societies,” Bardella said. Bardella’s interview came during a trip to London in which he met Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who once tied Bardella’s party to “prejudice and anti-Semitism.” “I think that Farage will be the next prime minister,” Bardella told the Telegraph, praising “a great patriot who has always defended the interests of Britain and the British people.”

BERLIN — U.S. President Donald Trump’s overtures to the European far right have never been more overt, but the EU’s biggest far-right parties are split over whether that is a blessing or a curse.  While Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has welcomed Trump’s moral support, viewing it as a way to win domestic legitimacy and end its political ostracization, France’s National Rally has kept its distance — viewing American backing as a potential liability. The differing reactions from the two parties, which lead the polls in the EU’s biggest economies, stem less from varying ideologies than from distinct domestic political calculations. AfD leaders in Germany celebrated the Trump administration’s recent attacks on Europe’s mainstream political leaders and approval of “patriotic European parties” that seek to fight Europe’s so-called “civilizational erasure.” “This is direct recognition of our work,” AfD MEP Petr Bystron said in a statement after the Trump administration released its National Security Strategy — which, in parts, sounds like it could have been a manifesto of a far-right European party — warning that Europe may be “unrecognizable” in two decades due to migration and a loss of national identities. “The AfD has always fought for sovereignty, remigration, and peace — precisely the priorities that Trump is now implementing,” added Bystron, who will be among a group of politicians in his party traveling to Washington this week to meet with MAGA Republicans. One of the AfD’s national leaders, Alice Weidel, also celebrated Trump’s security strategy. “That’s why we need the AfD!” Weidel said in a post after the document was released. By contrast, National Rally leaders in France were generally silent. Thierry Mariani, a member of the party’s national board, explained Trump hardly seemed like an ideal ally. “Trump treats us like a colony — with his rhetoric, which isn’t a big deal, but especially economically and politically,” he told POLITICO. The party’s national leaders, Mariani added, see “the risk of this attitude from someone who now has nothing to fear, since he cannot be re-elected, and who is always excessive and at times ridiculous.”  AFD’S AMERICAN DREAM It’s no coincidence that Bystron is part of a delegation of AfD politicians set to meet members of Trump’s MAGA camp in Washington this week. Bystron has been among the AfD politicians increasingly looking to build ties to the Trump administration to win support for what they frame as a struggle against political persecution and censorship at home. This is an argument members of the Trump administration clearly sympathize with. When Germany’s domestic intelligence agency declared the AfD to be extremist earlier this year, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the move “tyranny in disguise.” During the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President JD Vance urged mainstream politicians in Europe to knock down the “firewalls” that shut out far-right parties from government. “This is direct recognition of our work,” AfD MEP Petr Bystron said in a statement after the Trump administration released its National Security Strategy. | Britta Pedersen/Picture Alliance via Getty Images AfD leaders have therefore made a simple calculation: Trump’s support may lend the party a sheen of acceptability that will help it appeal to more voters while, at the same time, making it politically harder for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives to refuse to govern in coalition with their party. This explains why AfD polticians will be in the U.S. this week seeking political legitimacy. On Friday evening, Markus Frohnmaier, deputy leader of the AfD parlimentary group, will be an “honored guest” at a New York Young Republican Club gala, which has called for a “new civic order” in Germany. NATIONAL RALLY SEES ‘NOTHING TO GAIN’ In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally has distanced itself from the AfD and Trump as part of a wider effort to present itself as more palatable to mainstream voters ahead of a presidential election in 2027 the party believes it has a good chance of winning. As part of the effort to clean up its image, Le Pen pushed for the AfD to be ejected from the Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament last year following a series of scandals that made it something of a pariah. At the same time, National Rally leaders have calculated that Trump can’t help them at home because he is deeply unpopular nationally. Even the party’s supporters view the American president negatively. An Odoxa poll released after the 2024 American presidential election found that 56 percent of National Rally voters held a negative view of Trump. In the same survey, 85 percent of voters from all parties described Trump as “aggressive,” and 78 percent as “racist.”  Jean-Yves Camus, a political scientist and leading expert on French and international far-right movements, highlighted the ideological gaps separating Le Pen from Trump — notably her support for a welfare state and social safety nets, as well as her limited interest in social conservatism and religion.  “Trumpism is a distinctly American phenomenon that cannot be transplanted to France,” Camus said. “Marine Le Pen, who is working on normalization, has no interest in being linked with Trump. And since she is often accused of serving foreign powers — mostly Russia — she has nothing to gain from being branded ‘Trump’s agent in France.’” 

BRUSSELS — EU countries on Monday signed off on sweeping new plans to reform how the bloc deals with migration. The measures, approved at a meeting of EU justice and home affairs ministers in Brussels, will give capitals the power to remove people who don’t have the right to live and work in the bloc, to set up asylum processing centers overseas and to create removals hubs outside their borders. It comes amid growing public unrest over migration, in a move designed to counter the far right and overhaul the way capitals deal with new arrivals. “We are at a turning point of the European migration and asylum reform,” European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook. “These are all measures that will help process claims more effectively and reduce pressure on asylum systems. And they all send the same signal: Europe will not tolerate any abuse of its systems.” The draft legislation includes a new “solidarity pool” in which countries — apart from those already facing high levels of migratory pressure — will be asked to resettle migrants or pay for other countries to support them. In addition, a new list of “safe countries” has been drawn up, from which asylum applications will be rapidly rejected unless there are extenuating circumstances. Additional rules, still to be agreed by ministers on Monday, would mean countries are able to set up asylum processing centers in non-EU countries, as well as “return hubs” from where people whose claims are unsuccessful can be removed. The changes have been pushed by Denmark, which holds the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, with the country’s center-left government setting out a hard-nosed approach to irregular migration both at home and in Brussels. “We have a very high influx of irregular migrants, and our European countries are under pressure,” said Danish Minister for Immigration and Integration Rasmus Stoklund. “Thousands are drowning in the Mediterranean Sea or are abused along the migratory routes, while human smugglers earn fortunes.” “This shows that the current system creates unhealthy incentive structures and a strong pull-factor, which are hard to break.” There had been dissent from countries such as Spain, which worry the new rules go too far, and Slovakia, which claimed they don’t go far enough. Despite that, negotiators managed to strike a deal before the legislative agenda grinds to a halt during the winter break. “To get the migration challenge under control has been a key demand from European leaders for years. For many, this is perceived as paramount to keep the trust of European citizens,” said one European diplomat, granted anonymity to speak frankly. Migration is high on the list of public priorities and has been capitalized on by right-wing parties in elections from France to Poland in recent years. In her State of the Union address in September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said tackling irregular migration was key to maintaining the perception “that democracy provides solutions to people’s legitimate concerns.” “The people of Europe have proven their willingness to help those fleeing war and persecution. However, frustration grows when they feel our rules are being disregarded,” von der Leyen said. The EU has also come under fire from U.S. President Donald Trump in recent days, whose administration claimed in an explosive new strategy document that Brussels’ migration policies “are transforming the continent and creating strife.”

Center-right politician Ciprian Ciucu will be Bucharest’s new mayor after defeating a far-right candidate in Sunday elections. Ciucu, the candidate of the center-right National Liberal Party and a close ally of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, won roughly 36 percent of the vote. Ciucu defeated Anca Alexandrescu, a TV presenter backed by Romania’s largest far-right party (AUR), who finished second with about 22 percent. The Social Democratic Party’s candidate Daniel Băluță came third, despite being projected to win in many opinion polls. Ciucu’s victory could help ease the pressure on Bolojan, who has been trying to pass unpopular austerity measures — including higher taxes and cutting public sector jobs — to reduce a budget deficit that has reached 9 percent of GDP. Opposition parties have filed a no-confidence motion in Bolojan over plans to reform the pension system, which will take place on Dec. 15. “Beyond this victory, it’s probably a good thing that this coalition will continue. The government has promised reforms, and it’s time to implement them,” Ciucu said on Sunday. “From my political position, I will help ensure these reforms are carried out,” he added. Bucharest was previously led by independent liberal Nicușor Dan, who left the role to become Romanian president in May. Romania’s politics was thrown into chaos after an ultranationalist TikTok candidate came out of obscurity to win the first round of the presidential race in November 2024. The election was ultimately cancelled on suspicion of Russian interference, with a court ordering a do-over.

U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration blame the EU and migration for what they say is imminent, total cultural unravelling in Europe.  The explosive claim is made in the U.S. National Security Strategy, which notes Europe has economic problems, but says they are “eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure” within the next 20 years.  “The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence,” the Trump administration says in the 33-page document released overnight.  That narrative is likely to resonate deeply among most of Europe’s far-right parties, whose electoral programs are primarily based on criticism of the EU, demands for curbs on migration from Muslim-majority and non-European nations, and a patriotic push to overturn their countries’ perceived declines.  The new security strategy offers a clear ideological alignment between U.S. President Donald Trump’s populist MAGA movement and Europe’s nationalist parties. The U.S. administration — which has developed increasingly closer ties with far-right parties in countries such as Germany and Spain — appears to hint it could help ideologically allied European parties. “America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism,” the strategy states. The document is a rare formal explanation of Trump’s foreign policy worldview by his administration. Such strategies, which presidents typically release once each term, can help shape how parts of the U.S. government allocate budgets and set policy priorities. In an introductory note to the strategy, Trump called it a “roadmap to ensure that America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history, and the home of freedom on earth.” The Trump administration does concede that “Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the United States,” but its views on the continent are aligned with the administration’s past negative public statements. Vice President JD Vance shocked the mainstream political class at the Munich Security Conference in February by attacking Europe over migration and free speech. The document also echoes the racist “great replacement” conspiracy theory, which asserts that elites are plotting to diminish the voting power of white Europeans by opening their countries’ doors to immigration from the African continent, specifically Muslim countries. “Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,” the document states. The war in Ukraine is mentioned, in a brief departure from discussing Europe’s “civilizational erasure.” The U.S. stresses that it’s in America’s interest for the Kremlin’s war to stop, including in order to restore “strategic stability” with Russia. However, the U.S. administration claims that “unstable minority governments” in Europe have “unrealistic expectations for the war,” while also hinting they are hindering the peace process. The comments come as European leaders privately warn that Washington could “betray” Ukraine during peace negotiations with Moscow. In contradiction to NATO’s open-door policy for candidate countries, the U.S. administration also wants to “end the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” While it’s no secret that Trump doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO, that was also Washington’s position under his predecessor Joe Biden.