Exit poll: Slovenia’s ruling liberals edge populists, but election still too close to call

Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberals lead by a narrow margin in Sunday’s national election over former right-wing populist leader Janez Janša, according to exit polls. 

The preliminary results show Golob’s governing Freedom Movement party securing 29.9 percent of the vote, good for 30 seats in the country’s 90-seat chamber, ahead of Janša’s conservative Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) on 27.5 percent, equaling 27 seats. If those results hold, it would represent a substantial step back for Golob’s party, which won 41 seats in the last election in 2022.

The Slovenian vote has been seen as a mood-check of the bloc’s electorate, with the EU tilting right since the 2024 European Parliament elections gave a boost to right-wing populist parties. A nationalist-populist government took power in the Czech Republic last year, adding to a pro-Moscow bloc that includes Slovakia and Hungary, while the far-right RN leads polling in France ahead of key 2027 presidential elections.

If Janša, who has expressed admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump, were to lead the country again, it would give Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán another ally in the European Council.

In remarks Sunday night at his party headquarters, Janša said the results show Slovenia has two choices: Either the incumbent liberal-left coalition could continue to govern, or a new right-wing coalition under SDS could take the reins.

Liberalism vs. illiberalism

Slovenes went to the polls after a dramatic campaign that in its final stretch was less about bread-and-butter issues than allegations of election interference. 

Janša, a veteran politician who has served multiple terms as prime minister, campaigned on lower taxes and stronger governance, while Golob sought to frame the election in an interview with POLITICO as a choice between liberal democratic values and Janša’s Hungary-style illiberalism. 

Leaked audio and video recordings published earlier this month and apparently designed to tie Golob’s government to corruption showed prominent Slovenian figures, including a former minister, apparently discussing illegal lobbying and the misuse of state funds.  

Slovenian authorities said Israeli private intelligence firm Black Cube had carried out illegal surveillance and wiretapping and has visited SDS headquarters in December. Janša acknowledged he had been in contact with a figure linked to the firm, but denied hiring them to dig up dirt on the government. 

In a letter sent earlier this week and obtained exclusively by POLITICO, Golob urged European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to investigate the alleged election interference, calling it “a clear hybrid threat against the European Union.” 

Both parties sought to turn the scandal to their advantage ahead of the vote, with the SDS arguing the recordings were proof of high-level corruption while Golob’s supporters said it was evidence Janša was willing to collaborate with foreign entities to retake power.   

The political row spilled over into Brussels, with the European People’s Party group, to which Janša’s party belongs, pushing last week for a European Parliament hearing on fresh allegations that Slovenia’s EU commissioner, Marta Kos — who hails from Golob’s party — had collaborated with Yugoslavia’s secret police decades ago. 

Kos has denied the claims, and an official close to her cabinet described the accusations to POLITICO as politically motivated. 

The first official results of Sunday’s election will be declared later in the evening. 

Ali Walker contributed to this report.