The center-right European People’s Party is eyeing “better implementation” of
the Lisbon Treaty to better prepare the EU for what it sees as historic shifts
in the global balance of power involving the U.S., China and Russia, EPP leader
Manfred Weber said on Saturday.
Speaking at a press conference on the second day of an EPP Leaders Retreat in
Zagreb, Weber highlighted the possibility of broadening the use of qualified
majority voting in EU decision-making and developing a practical plan for
military response if a member state is attacked.
Currently EU leaders can use qualified majority voting on most legislative
proposals, from energy and climate issues to research and innovation. But common
foreign and security policy, EU finances and membership issues, among other
areas, need a unified majority.
This means that on issues such as sanctions against Russia, one country can
block agreement, as happened last summer when Slovakian Prime Minister Robert
Fico vetoed a package of EU measures against Moscow — a veto that was eventually
lifted. Such power in one country’s hands is something that the EPP would like
to change.
As for military solidarity, Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty obliges countries
to provide “aid and assistance by all the means in their power” if an EU country
is attacked. For Weber, the formulation under European law is stronger than
NATO’s Article 5 collective defense commitment.
However, he stressed that the EU still lacks a clear operational plan for how
the clause would work in practice. Article 42.7 was previously used when France
requested that other EU countries make additional contributions to the fight
against terrorism, following the Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015.
Such ideas were presented as the party with a biggest grouping in the European
Parliament — and therefore the power to shape EU political priorities —
presented its strategic focus for 2026, with competitiveness as its main
priority.
Keeping the pulse on what matters in 2026
The EPP wants to unleash the bloc’s competitiveness through further cutting red
tape, “completing” the EU single market, diversifying supply chains, protecting
economic independence and security and promoting innovation including in AI,
chips and biotech, among other actions, according to its list 2026 priorities
unveiled on Saturday.
On defense, the EPP is pushing for a “360-degree” security approach to safeguard
Europe against growing geopolitical threats, “addressing state and non-state
threats from all directions,” according to the document.
The EPP is calling for enhanced European defense capabilities, including a
stronger defense market, joint procurement of military equipment, and new
strategic initiatives to boost readiness. The party also stressed the need for
better protection against cyberattacks and hybrid threats, and robust measures
to counter disinformation campaigns targeting EU institutions and societies.
On migration and border security, the EPP backs tougher asylum admissibility
rules, faster returns, and strengthened external borders, including reinforced
Frontex operations and improved digital systems like the Entry/Exit System.
The party also urged a Demographic Strategy for Europe amid the continent’s
shrinking and aging population. The text, initiated by Croatian Democratic Union
(HDZ), member of the EPP, wants to see demographic considerations integrated
into EU economic governance, cohesion funds, and policymaking, while boosting
family support, intergenerational solidarity, labor participation, skills
development, mobility and managed immigration.
Demographic change is “the most important issue, which is not really intensively
discussed in the public discourse,” Weber said. “That’s why we want to highlight
this, we want to underline the importance.”
Tag - Hybrid threats
Germany and Italy on Friday backed an organization dedicated to fighting hybrid
threats and disinformation, weeks after the United States exited it and called
it “wasteful.”
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has hammered Europe with hybrid
attacks ranging from cyberattacks, destruction of property and transport links,
disinformation, drone incursions and even attempted assassinations. Analysts
argue the aim of the hybrid campaign is to reduce European support for Ukraine.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met
in Rome to adopt a “plan of action for strategic bilateral and EU cooperation.”
In the joint plan, the two countries committed to “strengthening” the European
Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats.
The center was one of dozens of organizations from which U.S. President Donald
Trump withdrew in early January on the grounds that they were “wasteful,
ineffective, and harmful.”
Meloni and Merz committed to “exchange on hybrid threats, information resilience
and strategic communications,” as well as prioritizing a wide range of
cybersecurity policies such as the protection of critical infrastructure, cyber
capacity building projects and tackling cybercrime. They also said they will
“prioritize disruptive and dual-use technologies” for cyber defense.
The two European leaders also pushed to boost the EU’s intelligence-sharing
capacities, in particular the “hybrid fusion cell” within the EU Intelligence
and Situation Centre (EU INTCEN).
In the desolate Arctic desert of Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, Europeans are
building defenses against a new, up-and-coming security threat: space hacks.
A Lithuanian company called Astrolight is constructing a ground station, with
support from the European Space Agency, that will use laser beams to download
voluminous data from satellites in a fast and secure manner, it announced last
month.
It’s just one example of how Europe is moving to harden the security of its
satellites, as rising geopolitical tensions and an expanding spectrum of hybrid
threats are pushing space communications to the heart of the bloc’s security
plans.
For years, satellite infrastructure was treated by policymakers as a technical
utility rather than a strategic asset. That changed in 2022, when a cyberattack
on the Viasat satellite network coincided with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Satellites have since become popular targets for interference, espionage and
disruption. The European Commission in June warned that space was becoming “more
contested,” flagging increasing cyberattacks and attempts at electronic
interference targeting satellites and ground stations. Germany and the United
Kingdom warned earlier this year of the growing threat posed by Russian and
Chinese space satellites, which are regularly spotted spying on their
satellites.
EU governments are now racing to boost their resilience and reduce reliance on
foreign technology, both through regulations like the new Space Act and
investments in critical infrastructure.
The threat is crystal clear in Greenland, Laurynas Mačiulis, the chief executive
officer of Astrolight, said. “The problem today is that around 80 percent of all
the [space data] traffic is downlinked to a single location in Svalbard, which
is an island shared between different countries, including Russia,” he said in
an interview.
Europe’s main Arctic ground station sits in Svalbard and supports both the
navigation systems of Galileo and Copernicus. While the location is strategic,
it is also extremely sensitive due to nearby Russian and Chinese activities.
Crucially, the station relies on a single undersea cable to connect to the
internet, which has been damaged several times.
“In case of intentional or unintentional damage of this cable, you lose access
to most of the geo-intelligence satellites, which is, of course, very critical.
So our aim is to deploy a complementary satellite ground station up in
Greenland,” Mačiulis said.
THE MUSK OF IT ALL
A centerpiece of Europe’s ambitions to have secure, European satellite
communication is IRIS², a multibillion-euro secure connectivity constellation
pitched in 2022 and designed to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system.
“Today, communications — for instance in Ukraine — are far too dependent on
Starlink,” said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the founding chairman of political
consultancy Rasmussen Global, speaking at an event in Brussels in November.
“That dependence rests on the shifting ideas of an American billionaire. That’s
too risky. We have to build a secure communications system that is independent
of the United States.”
The European system, which will consist of 18 satellites operating in low and
medium Earth orbit, aims to provide Europe with fast and encrypted
communication.
“Even if someone intercepts the signal [of IRIS² ], they will not be able to
decrypt it,” Piero Angeletti, head of the Secure Connectivity Space Segment
Office at the European Space Agency, told POLITICO. “This will allow us to have
a secure system that is also certified and accredited by the national security
entities.”
The challenge is that IRIS² is still at least four years away from becoming
operational.
WHO’S IN CHARGE?
While Europe beefs up its secure satellite systems, governments are still
streamlining how they can coordinate cyber defenses and space security. In many
cases, that falls to both space or cyber commands, which, unlike traditional
military units, are relatively new and often still being built out.
Clémence Poirier, a cyberdefense researcher at the Center for Security Studies
at ETH Zurich, said that EU countries must now focus on maturing them.
“European states need to keep developing those commands,” she told POLITICO.
“Making sure that they coordinate their action, that there are clear mandates
and responsibilities when it comes to cyber security, cyber defensive
operations, cyber offensive operations, and also when it comes to monitoring the
threat.”
Industry, too, is struggling to fill the gaps. Most cybersecurity firms do not
treat space as a sector in its own right, leaving satellite operators in a blind
spot. Instead, space systems are folded into other categories: Earth-observation
satellites often fall under environmental services, satellite TV under media,
and broadband constellations like Starlink under internet services.
That fragmentation makes it harder for space companies to assess risk, update
threat models or understand who they need to defend against. It also complicates
incident response: while advanced tools exist for defending against cyberattacks
on terrestrial networks, those tools often do not translate well to space
systems.
“Cybersecurity in space is a bit different,” Poirier added. “You cannot just
implement whatever solution you have for your computers on Earth and just deploy
that to your satellite.”
Alleged cigarette smugglers — not hybrid threat agents — were behind the
mysterious Belarusian weather balloons that recently spooked Lithuania into
shutting its border and declaring a national emergency.
Lithuanian authorities said Tuesday they had detained 21 people, allegedly
members of a criminal group, on suspicion of smuggling cigarettes from Belarus
with the use of GPS-equipped balloons.
The general prosecutor’s office said in a statement that the alleged network was
“characterized by a very strict conspiracy and distribution of roles,” and that
“the organizers may have had direct contacts with accomplices operating in the
Republic of Belarus, from where, under favorable weather conditions, balloons
with smuggled cigarettes were launched.”
Lithuanian authorities said GPS tracking had allowed the balloons to be
monitored “and the exact coordinates of their landing in Lithuania were
transmitted to the executors.”
The country declared a nationwide state of emergency last week over the balloons
after closing its border with Belarus in October. Lithuanian Foreign Minister
Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO at the time that the car-sized balloons carrying
smuggled cigarettes into the country’s airspace constituted “hybrid activities,”
even if they were not direct security threats.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also condemned the balloon
incursions from Belarus, saying on Dec. 1 that “Such hybrid attack by the
Lukashenko regime is completely unacceptable.”
According to Lithuanian Interior Ministry data, at least 600 balloons and 200
drones have entered Lithuania’s airspace so far in 2025, disrupting more than
300 flights, affecting 47,000 passengers and leading to around 60 hours of
airport closures.
The arrests of the alleged cigarette smugglers come as frontline countries on
the EU’s eastern flank with Russia plead with Brussels to accelerate its
upcoming border defense initiatives in the face of opposition from some European
capitals.
Denmark’s military intelligence service has for the first time classified the
U.S. as a security risk, a striking shift in how one of Washington’s closest
European allies assesses the transatlantic relationship.
In its 2025 intelligence outlook published Wednesday, the Danish Defense
Intelligence Service warned that the U.S. is increasingly prioritizing its own
interests and “using its economic and technological strength as a tool of
power,” including toward allies and partners.
“The United States uses economic power, including in the form of threats of high
tariffs, to enforce its will and no longer excludes the use of military force,
even against allies,” it said, in a pointed reference to Washington trying to
wrest control of Greenland from Denmark.
The assessment is one of the strongest warnings about the U.S. to come from a
European intelligence service. In October, the Dutch spies said they had stopped
sharing some intelligence with their U.S. counterparts, citing political
interference and human rights concerns.
The Danish warning underscores European unease as Washington leverages
industrial policy more aggressively on the global stage, and highlights the
widening divide between the allies, with the U.S. National Security Strategy
stating that Europe will face the “prospect of civilizational erasure” within
the next 20 years.
The Danish report also said that “there is uncertainty about how China-U.S.
relations will develop in the coming years” as Beijing’s rapid rise has eroded
the U.S.’s long-held position as the undisputed global power.
Washington and Beijing are now locked in a contest for influence, alliances and
critical resources, which has meant the U.S. has “significantly prioritized” the
geographical area around it — including the Arctic — to reduce China’s
influence.
“The USA’s increasingly strong focus on the Pacific Ocean is also creating
uncertainty about the country’s role as the primary guarantor of security in
Europe,” the report said. “The USA’s changed policy places great demands on
armaments and cooperation between European countries to strengthen deterrence
against Russia.”
In the worst-case scenario, the Danish intelligence services predict that
Western countries could find themselves in a situation in a few years where both
Russia and China are ready to fight their own regional wars in the Baltic Sea
region and the Taiwan Strait, respectively.
Lithuania on Tuesday declared a nationwide state of emergency over a surge in
contraband-carrying balloons flying over the border from Belarus.
“It’s clear that this emergency is being declared not only because of
disruptions to civil aviation, but also due to national security concerns and
the need for closer coordination among institutions,” Lithuanian Interior
Minister Vladislav Kondratovič said during a government meeting Tuesday.
Kondratovič added that the government had asked the parliament to grant the
military additional powers to work with the law enforcement authorities during
the state of the emergency.
“By introducing a state of emergency today, we are legitimizing the
participation of the military … and indeed, every evening, a number of crews go
out together with the police, conduct patrols, monitor the territory, and detect
cargo,” he said.
Lithuania has accused its neighbor Belarus of repeatedly smuggling contraband
cigarettes into the country using balloons, prompting air traffic disruptions
and a border closure with Belarus. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has
called Vilnius’ response “petty.”
According to Lithuanian Interior Ministry data, at least 600 balloons and 200
drones entered Lithuania’s airspace this year, disrupting more than 300 flights,
affecting 47,000 passengers and leading to around 60 hours of airport closures.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė said the state emergency will help
coordination between joint response teams to better intercept the balloons,
which both Lithuania and the EU consider to be hybrid attacks.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO in an interview in
October that the EU must prepare new sanctions against Belarus to deprive it of
the ability to wage hybrid war.
BERLIN — Germany will launch a new federal counter-drone unit as concerns mount
over a surge of suspicious drones overflying military sites and critical
infrastructure, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said Tuesday.
The formation will be part of the federal police’s national special operations
arm, and will be trained and certified specifically for drone detection and
neutralization, Dobrindt said at an event outside Berlin.
The unit will eventually grow to 130 officers, deployed across Germany and moved
quickly to hot spots when needed.
Germany has over €100 million budgeted this year and next for counter-drone
technology, the minister said. The systems include sensors and jammers designed
to disrupt hostile drone signals, with the capability to intercept or shoot them
down if necessary.
“It is an important signal that we are confronting hybrid threats,” Dobrindt
said. “We are creating a clear mission to detect, intercept and, yes, also shoot
down drones when necessary. We cannot accept that hybrid threats, including
drones, become a danger to our security.”
Dobrindt said Germany will procure systems from both German and Israeli
manufacturers, with further purchases expected in the coming months.
This week, Germany’s state interior ministers are also due to decide whether to
establish a joint federal-state counter-drone center, bringing together federal
and state police forces and the military to coordinate detection and response.
Berlin’s new unit marks its most significant move so far toward a standing
national counter-drone capability. German security agencies have tracked
hundreds of suspicious drone flyovers this year, including near barracks, naval
facilities and critical infrastructure.
Officials warn that small, commercially available drones are increasingly
deployed in Europe for espionage, probing defenses and hybrid operations. Some
European governments have pointed the finger of blame at Russia, but so far
proof is lacking.
Airports across Europe have also been forced to close thanks to overflying
drones. Last month, the U.K., France and Germany sent staff and equipment to
help Belgium counter drone incursions around sensitive facilities.
Many countries are trying to figure out how to deal with the drones in a safe
and legal way, as shooting them down could endanger people on the ground.
Europe’s security does not depend solely on our physical borders and their
defense. It rests on something far less visible, and far more sensitive: the
digital networks that keep our societies, economies and democracies functioning
every second of the day.
> Without resilient networks, the daily workings of Europe would grind to a
> halt, and so too would any attempt to build meaningful defense readiness.
A recent study by Copenhagen Economics confirms that telecom operators have
become the first line of defense in Europe’s security architecture. Their
networks power essential services ranging from emergency communications and
cross-border healthcare to energy systems, financial markets, transport and,
increasingly, Europe’s defense capabilities. Without resilient networks, the
daily workings of Europe would grind to a halt, and so too would any attempt to
build meaningful defense readiness.
This reality forces us to confront an uncomfortable truth: Europe cannot build
credible defense capabilities on top of an economically strained, structurally
fragmented telecom sector. Yet this is precisely the risk today.
A threat landscape outpacing Europe’s defenses
The challenges facing Europe are evolving faster than our political and
regulatory systems can respond. In 2023 alone, ENISA recorded 188 major
incidents, causing 1.7 billion lost user-hours, the equivalent of taking entire
cities offline. While operators have strengthened their systems and outage times
fell by more than half in 2024 compared with the previous year, despite a
growing number of incidents, the direction of travel remains clear: cyberattacks
are more sophisticated, supply chains more vulnerable and climate-related
physical disruptions more frequent. Hybrid threats increasingly target civilian
digital infrastructure as a way to weaken states. Telecom networks, once
considered as technical utilities, have become a strategic asset essential to
Europe’s stability.
> Europe cannot deploy cross-border defense capabilities without resilient,
> pan-European digital infrastructure. Nor can it guarantee NATO
> interoperability with 27 national markets, divergent rules and dozens of
> sub-scale operators unable to invest at continental scale.
Our allies recognize this. NATO recently encouraged members to spend up to 1.5
percent of their GDP on protecting critical infrastructure. Secretary General
Mark Rutte also urged investment in cyber defense, AI, and cloud technologies,
highlighting the military benefits of cloud scalability and edge computing – all
of which rely on high-quality, resilient networks. This is a clear political
signal that telecom security is not merely an operational matter but a
geopolitical priority.
The link between telecoms and defense is deeper than many realize. As also
explained in the recent Arel report, Much More than a Network, modern defense
capabilities rely largely on civilian telecom networks. Strong fiber backbones,
advanced 5G and future 6G systems, resilient cloud and edge computing, satellite
connectivity, and data centers form the nervous system of military logistics,
intelligence and surveillance. Europe cannot deploy cross-border defense
capabilities without resilient, pan-European digital infrastructure. Nor can it
guarantee NATO interoperability with 27 national markets, divergent rules and
dozens of sub-scale operators unable to invest at continental scale.
Fragmentation has become one of Europe’s greatest strategic vulnerabilities.
The reform Europe needs: An investment boost for digital networks
At the same time, Europe expects networks to become more resilient, more
redundant, less dependent on foreign technology and more capable of supporting
defense-grade applications. Security and resilience are not side tasks for
telecom operators, they are baked into everything they do. From procurement and
infrastructure design to daily operations, operators treat these efforts as core
principles shaping how networks are built, run and protected. Therefore, as the
Copenhagen Economics study shows, the level of protection Europe now requires
will demand substantial additional capital.
> It is unrealistic to expect world-class, defense-ready infrastructure to
> emerge from a model that has become structurally unsustainable.
This is the right ambition, but the economic model underpinning the sector does
not match these expectations. Due to fragmentation and over-regulation, Europe’s
telecom market invests less per capita than global peers, generates roughly half
the return on capital of operators in the United States and faces rising costs
linked to expanding security obligations. It is unrealistic to expect
world-class, defense-ready infrastructure to emerge from a model that has become
structurally unsustainable.
A shift in policy priorities is therefore essential. Europe must place
investment in security and resilience at the center of its political agenda.
Policy must allow this reality to be reflected in merger assessments, reduce
overlapping security rules and provide public support where the public interest
exceeds commercial considerations. This is not state aid; it is strategic social
responsibility.
Completing the single market for telecommunications is central to this agenda. A
fragmented market cannot produce the secure, interoperable, large-scale
solutions required for modern defense. The Digital Networks Act must simplify
and harmonize rules across the EU, supported by a streamlined governance that
distinguishes between domestic matters and cross-border strategic issues.
Spectrum policy must also move beyond national silos, allowing Europe to avoid
conflicts with NATO over key bands and enabling coherent next-generation
deployments.
Telecom policy nowadays is also defense policy. When we measure investment gaps
in digital network deployment, we still tend to measure simple access to 5G and
fiber. However, we should start considering that — if security, resilience and
defense-readiness are to be taken into account — the investment gap is much
higher that the €200 billion already estimated by the European Commission.
Europe’s strategic choice
The momentum for stronger European defense is real — but momentum fades if it is
not seized. If Europe fails to modernize and secure its telecom infrastructure
now, it risks entering the next decade with a weakened industrial base, chronic
underinvestment, dependence on non-EU technologies and networks unable to
support advanced defense applications. In that scenario, Europe’s democratic
resilience would erode in parallel with its economic competitiveness, leaving
the continent more exposed to geopolitical pressure and technological
dependency.
> If Europe fails to modernize and secure its telecom infrastructure now, it
> risks entering the next decade with a weakened industrial base, chronic
> underinvestment, dependence on non-EU technologies and networks unable to
> support advanced defense applications.
Europe still has time to change course and put telecoms at the center of its
agenda — not as a technical afterthought, but as a core pillar of its defense
strategy. The time for incremental steps has passed. Europe must choose to build
the network foundations of its security now or accept that its strategic
ambitions will remain permanently out of reach.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT
* The sponsor is Connect Europe AISBL
* The ultimate controlling entity is Connect Europe AISBL
* The political advertisement is linked to advocacy on EU digital, telecom and
industrial policy, including initiatives such as the Digital Networks Act,
Digital Omnibus, and connectivity, cybersecurity, and defence frameworks
aimed at strengthening Europe’s digital competitiveness.
More information here.
BRUSSELS — Russia’s drones and agents are unleashing attacks across NATO
countries and Europe is now doing what would have seemed outlandish just a few
years ago: planning how to hit back.
Ideas range from joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, and faster and
more coordinated attribution of hybrid attacks by quickly pointing the finger at
Moscow, to surprise NATO-led military exercises, according to two senior
European government officials and three EU diplomats.
“The Russians are constantly testing the limits — what is the response, how far
can we go?” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže noted in an interview. A more
“proactive response is needed,” she told POLITICO. “And it’s not talking that
sends a signal — it’s doing.”
Russian drones have buzzed Poland and Romania in recent weeks and months, while
mysterious drones have caused havoc at airports and military bases across the
continent. Other incidents include GPS jamming, incursions by fighter aircraft
and naval vessels, and an explosion on a key Polish rail link ferrying military
aid to Ukraine.
“Overall, Europe and the alliance must ask themselves how long we are willing to
tolerate this type of hybrid warfare … [and] whether we should consider becoming
more active ourselves in this area,” German State Secretary for Defense Florian
Hahn told Welt TV last week.
Hybrid attacks are nothing new. Russia has in recent years sent assassins to
murder political enemies in the U.K., been accused of blowing up arms storage
facilities in Central Europe, attempted to destabilize the EU by financing
far-right political parties, engaged in social media warfare, and tried to upend
elections in countries like Romania and Moldova.
But the sheer scale and frequency of the current attacks are unprecedented.
Globsec, a Prague-based think tank, calculated there were more than 110 acts of
sabotage and attempted attacks carried out in Europe between January and July,
mainly in Poland and France, by people with links to Moscow.
“Today’s world offers a much more open — indeed, one might say creative — space
for foreign policy,” Russian leader Vladimir Putin said during October’s Valdai
conference, adding: “We are closely monitoring the growing militarization
of Europe. Is it just rhetoric, or is it time for us to respond?”
Russia may see the EU and NATO as rivals or even enemies — former Russian
President and current deputy Kremlin Security Council head Dmitry Medvedev last
month said: “The U.S. is our adversary.” However, Europe does not want war with
a nuclear-armed Russia and so has to figure out how to respond in a way that
deters Moscow but does not cross any Kremlin red lines that could lead to open
warfare.
That doesn’t mean cowering, according to Swedish Chief of Defense Gen. Michael
Claesson. “We cannot allow ourselves to be fearful and have a lot of angst for
escalation,” he said in an interview. “We need to be firm.”
So far, the response has been to beef up defenses. After Russian war drones were
shot down over Poland, NATO said it would boost the alliance’s drone and air
defenses on its eastern flank — a call mirrored by the EU.
Even that is enraging Moscow.
Europeans “should be afraid and tremble like dumb animals in a herd being driven
to the slaughter,” said Medvedev. “They should soil themselves with fear,
sensing their near and agonizing end.”
SWITCHING GEARS
Frequent Russian provocations are changing the tone in European capitals.
After deploying 10,000 troops to protect Poland’s critical infrastructure
following the sabotage of a rail line linking Warsaw and Kyiv, Polish Prime
Minister Donald Tusk on Friday accused Moscow of engaging in “state terrorism.”
After the incident, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said such threats
posed an “extreme danger” to the bloc, arguing it must “have a strong response”
to the attacks.
Last week, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto slammed the continent’s
“inertia” in the face of growing hybrid attacks and unveiled a 125-page plan to
retaliate. In it he suggested establishing a European Center for Countering
Hybrid Warfare, a 1,500-strong cyber force, as well as military personnel
specialized in artificial intelligence.
“Everybody needs to revise their security procedures,” Polish Foreign Minister
Radosław Sikorski added on Thursday. “Russia is clearly escalating its hybrid
war against EU citizens.”
WALK THE TALK
Despite the increasingly fierce rhetoric, what a more muscular response means is
still an open question.
Part of that is down to the difference between Moscow and Brussels — the latter
is more constrained by acting within the rules, according to Kevin Limonier, a
professor and deputy director at the Paris-based GEODE think tank.
“This raises an ethical and philosophical question: Can states governed by the
rule of law afford to use the same tools … and the same strategies as the
Russians?” he asked.
So far, countries like Germany and Romania are strengthening rules that would
allow authorities to shoot down drones flying over airports and militarily
sensitive objects.
National security services, meanwhile, can operate in a legal gray zone. Allies
from Denmark to the Czech Republic already allow offensive cyber operations. The
U.K. reportedly hacked into ISIS’s networks to obtain information on an
early-stage drone program by the terrorist group in 2017.
Allies must “be more proactive on the cyber offensive,” said Braže, and focus on
“increasing situational awareness — getting security and intelligence services
together and coordinated.”
In practice, countries could use cyber methods to target systems critical to
Russia’s war effort, like the Alabuga economic zone in Tatarstan in east-central
Russia, where Moscow is producing Shahed drones, as well as energy facilities or
trains carrying weapons, said Filip Bryjka, a political scientist and hybrid
threat expert at the Polish Academy of Sciences. “We could attack the system and
disrupt their functioning,” he said.
Europe also has to figure out how to respond to Russia’s large-scale
misinformation campaigns with its own efforts inside the country.
“Russian public opinion … is somewhat inaccessible,” said one senior military
official. “We need to work with allies who have a fairly detailed understanding
of Russian thinking — this means that cooperation must also be established in
the field of information warfare.”
Still, any new measures “need to have plausible deniability,” said one EU
diplomat.
SHOW OF FORCE
NATO, for its part, is a defensive organization and so is leery of offensive
operations. “Asymmetric responses are an important part of the conversation,”
said one NATO diplomat, but “we aren’t going to stoop to the same tactics as
Russia.”
Instead, the alliance should prioritize shows of force that illustrate strength
and unity, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and fellow with
London’s Royal United Services Institute think tank. In practice, that means
rapidly announcing whether Moscow is behind a hybrid attack and running
‘no-notice’ military exercises on the Russian border with Lithuania or Estonia.
Meanwhile, the NATO-backed Centre of Excellence on Hybrid Threats in Helsinki,
which brings together allied officials, is also “providing expertise and
training” and drafting “policies to counter those threats,” said Maarten ten
Wolde, a senior analyst at the organization.
“Undoubtedly, more should be done on hybrid,” said one senior NATO diplomat,
including increasing collective attribution after attacks and making sure to
“show through various means that we pay attention and can shift assets around in
a flexible way.”
Jacopo Barigazzi, Nicholas Vinocur, Nette Nöstlinger, Antoaneta Roussi and Seb
Starvecic contributed reporting.
BRUSSELS — European Parliament members this week rubbished the EU executive’s
Democracy Shield plan, an initiative aimed at bolstering the bloc’s defenses
against Russian sabotage, election meddling and cyber and disinformation
campaigns.
The Commission’s plan “feels more like a European neighborhood watch group
chat,” Kim van Sparrentak, a Dutch member of the Greens group, told a committee
meeting on Monday evening.
On Tuesday, EU Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath faced the brunt of that
censure before the full Parliament plenary, as centrist and left-leaning
lawmakers panned the plan for its weaknesses and far-right members warned that
Brussels is rolling out a propaganda machine of its own.
“We want to see more reform, more drive and more actions,” Swedish center-right
lawmaker Tomas Tobé, who leads the Parliament’s report on the matter, told
McGrath.
The European Democracy Shield was unveiled Nov. 12 as a response to Russia’s
escalating meddling in the bloc. In past months, Europe has been awash in hybrid
threats. Security services linked railway disruptions in Poland and the Baltics
to Russian-linked saboteurs, while unexplained drone flyovers have crippled
public services in Belgium and probed critical infrastructure sites across the
Nordics.
At the same time, pro-Kremlin influence campaigns have promoted deepfake videos
and fabricated scandals and divisive narratives ahead of elections in Moldova,
Slovakia and across the EU, often using local intermediaries to mask their
origins.
Together these tactics inform a pressure campaign that European security
officials say is designed to exhaust institutions, undermine trust and stretch
Europe’s defenses.
The Democracy Shield was a key pledge President Ursula von der Leyen made last
year. But the actual strategy presented this month lacks teeth and concrete
actions, and badly fails to meet the challenge, opponents said.
While “full of new ways to exchange information,” the strategy presents “no
other truly new or effective proposals to actually take action,” said van
Sparrentak, the Dutch Greens lawmaker.
EU RESPONSE A WORK IN PROGRESS
Much of the Shield’s text consists of calls to support existing initiatives or
proposed new ones to come later down the line.
One of the pillars of the initiative, a Democratic Resilience Center that would
pool information on hybrid warfare and interference, was announced by von der
Leyen in September but became a major sticking point during the drafting of the
Shield before its Nov. 12 unveiling.
The final proposal for the Center lacks teeth, critics said. Instead of an
independent agency, as the Parliament had wanted, it will be a forum for
exchanging information, two Commission officials told POLITICO.
The Center needs “a clear legal basis” and should be “independent” with “proper
funding,” Tobé said Tuesday.
Austrian liberal Helmut Brandstätter said in a comment to POLITICO that “some
aspects of the center are already embedded in the EEAS [the EU’s diplomatic
service] and other institutions. Instead of duplicating them, we should strive
to consolidate and streamline our tools.”
EU countries also have to opt into participating in the center, creating a risk
that national authorities neglect its work.
RIGHT BLASTS EU ‘CENSORSHIP’
For right-wing and far-right forces, the Shield reflects what they see as EU
censorship and meddling by Brussels in European national politics.
“The stated goals of the Democracy Shield look good on paper but we all know
that behind these noble goals, what you actually want is to build a political
machinery without an electoral mandate,” said Csaba Dömötör, a Hungarian MEP
from the far-right Patriots group.
“You cannot appropriate the powers and competence of sovereign countries and
create a tool which is going to allow you to have an influence on the decisions
of elections” in individual EU countries, said Polish hard-right MEP Beata
Szydło.
Those arguments echo some of the criticisms by the United States’ MAGA movement
of European social media regulation, which figures like Vice President JD Vance
have previously compared to Soviet-era censorship laws.
The Democracy Shield strategy includes attempts to support European media
organizations and fact-checking to stem the flood of disinformation around
political issues.
Romanian right-wing MEP Claudiu-Richard Târziu said her country’s 2024
presidential elections had been cancelled due to “an alleged foreign
intervention” that remained unproven.
“This Democracy Shield should not create a mechanism whereby other member states
could go through what Romania experienced in 2024 — this is an attack against
democracy — and eventually the voters will have zero confidence,” he said.
In a closing statement on Tuesday at the plenary, Commissioner McGrath defended
the Democracy Shield from its hard-right critics but did not respond to more
specific criticisms of the proposal.
“To those who question the Shield and who say it’s about censorship. What I say
to you is that I and my colleagues in the European Commission will be the very
first people to defend your right to level robust debate in a public forum,” he
said.