Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberals lead by a narrow margin in Sunday’s national election over former right-wing populist leader Janez Janša, according to exit polls.  The preliminary results show Golob’s governing Freedom Movement party securing 29.9 percent of the vote, good for 30 seats in the country’s 90-seat chamber, ahead of Janša’s conservative Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) on 27.5 percent, equaling 27 seats. If those results hold, it would represent a substantial step back for Golob’s party, which won 41 seats in the last election in 2022. The Slovenian vote has been seen as a mood-check of the bloc’s electorate, with the EU tilting right since the 2024 European Parliament elections gave a boost to right-wing populist parties. A nationalist-populist government took power in the Czech Republic last year, adding to a pro-Moscow bloc that includes Slovakia and Hungary, while the far-right RN leads polling in France ahead of key 2027 presidential elections. If Janša, who has expressed admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump, were to lead the country again, it would give Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán another ally in the European Council. In remarks Sunday night at his party headquarters, Janša said the results show Slovenia has two choices: Either the incumbent liberal-left coalition could continue to govern, or a new right-wing coalition under SDS could take the reins. LIBERALISM VS. ILLIBERALISM Slovenes went to the polls after a dramatic campaign that in its final stretch was less about bread-and-butter issues than allegations of election interference.  Janša, a veteran politician who has served multiple terms as prime minister, campaigned on lower taxes and stronger governance, while Golob sought to frame the election in an interview with POLITICO as a choice between liberal democratic values and Janša’s Hungary-style illiberalism.  Leaked audio and video recordings published earlier this month and apparently designed to tie Golob’s government to corruption showed prominent Slovenian figures, including a former minister, apparently discussing illegal lobbying and the misuse of state funds.   Slovenian authorities said Israeli private intelligence firm Black Cube had carried out illegal surveillance and wiretapping and has visited SDS headquarters in December. Janša acknowledged he had been in contact with a figure linked to the firm, but denied hiring them to dig up dirt on the government.  In a letter sent earlier this week and obtained exclusively by POLITICO, Golob urged European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to investigate the alleged election interference, calling it “a clear hybrid threat against the European Union.”  Both parties sought to turn the scandal to their advantage ahead of the vote, with the SDS arguing the recordings were proof of high-level corruption while Golob’s supporters said it was evidence Janša was willing to collaborate with foreign entities to retake power.    The political row spilled over into Brussels, with the European People’s Party group, to which Janša’s party belongs, pushing last week for a European Parliament hearing on fresh allegations that Slovenia’s EU commissioner, Marta Kos — who hails from Golob’s party — had collaborated with Yugoslavia’s secret police decades ago.  Kos has denied the claims, and an official close to her cabinet described the accusations to POLITICO as politically motivated.  The first official results of Sunday’s election will be declared later in the evening.  Ali Walker contributed to this report.

ROME — Giorgia Meloni is running Italy’s most stable government in years, but her political future now appears closely tied to a major referendum on Sunday and Monday. The plebiscite will address the bitter and complex question of judicial reform — something right-wingers such as Meloni have pursued for decades, accusing judges of political interference and left-wing bias. The changes sought by the referendum are highly technical, but the vote will be viewed as a wider test of confidence in the prime minister and her government. If Meloni wins, the victory will cement her power before a general election expected next year. But if she loses, the opposition will smell blood. Voters will be asked to support the reforms by voting “yes,” or reject them by crossing “no” on their ballots. Here’s everything you need to know about the referendum, and what happens next. THE LOGISTICS Booths will be open on Sunday from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. and on Monday from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m., while expats should have mailed their ballots by March 19. Exit polls will be published at 3 p.m. on Monday and official results will be confirmed later in the day. The constitutional referendum is binding No matter what the turnout WHAT POLLS SAY Italian law prevents the media from polling citizens within two weeks of the vote, but the latest numbers published March 7 identified a “growing trend” toward the “no” campaign. Still, the race looks finely balanced, with much depending on turnout. Turnout data — released throughout the day Sunday and at close of polls on Monday — could give an early indication of the results: A lower turnout is expected to favor the opposition, while higher figures should help Meloni. A man works next to a giant poster reading “Vote No to the law of the strongest”, ahead of the upcoming referendum on Justice reform, on March 20, 2026. | Stefano Rellandini / AFP via Getty Images The Iran war poses a risk to Meloni that may have ramped up since the last polls. Italian voters greatly dislike her ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, and are worried about rises in their already high energy bills thanks to the Middle East conflict. WHAT REFORMS ARE BEING PROPOSED? The government says it wants to break the judiciary into different career tracks to prevent groupthink and to stop cases being sewn up between judges and prosecutors from the same background. The reform suggests separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors — who currently share the same entrance exams and training programs — and adding a second prosecutors’ governing body to the existing one for personnel matters as well as a higher court in charge of discipline. Most members of the three courts will be selected by a lottery system rather than elected. HOW DID WE GET HERE? The Italian justice system has often been the center of political debates. Meloni’s government argues the reform is needed to fix an overly politicized and unaccountable judiciary, but the “no” campaign — led by the opposition — sees it as an authoritarian move to muzzle judges and reduce their independence.  In the 1990s, following the Mani Pulite (“Clean Hands”)corruption scandal that broke the Christian Democrats’ decades-long hold on power, politicians were discredited, while prosecutors were hailed as heroes and gained moral authority. This triggered lasting grievances on the right and a conviction that the judiciary has become a political force.  Things have not always been so binary. The idea of separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors was also previously supported by the left: Massimo D’Alema, who was secretary of the left-wing Partito Democratico di Sinistra and would soon become prime minister, proposed the reform as chair of a bipartisan parliamentary commission in 1997. But everything changed when Silvio Berlusconi came to power. The late prime minister took a more antagonistic stance toward the judiciary, alleging he was being prosecuted because of political interests. He nicknamed judges toghe rosse (“red robes”), accusing them of being Communist sympathizers and indulging a personal vendetta against him. He repeatedly attempted to rein in prosecutorial power, including curbing the use of wiretaps, instituting parliamentary immunity and shortening the statute of limitations.  In 2002 Berlusconi proposed a similar constitutional amendment to Meloni’s, but was forced to retreat after a fierce backlash. Since then most governments, like Mario Draghi’s in 2021, have focused on passing more targeted laws to improve efficiency. THE AYES HAVE IT: WHAT’S NEXT? If she wins, Meloni will take her victory lap, celebrating the reform and adding an arrow to her political quiver ahead of next year’s general election. She could attempt to ride the momentum and force an early vote before economic headwinds pick up, fueled by the energy crisis and the end of Italy’s EU-funded Covid recovery assistance. But she has said publicly that she wants to serve out her full term. THE NAYS HAVE IT: WHAT’S NEXT? Meloni has tried her best to avoid former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum mistake: making it personal. When Renzi lost the vote on his constitutional reform in 2016 he was forced to step down, after running a campaign that tied his name and fate to the outcome. The current Italian leader has insisted she won’t resign if her proposals fail.  But she won’t come out of it unscathed, either. Meloni has presented herself as a strong and stable leader, untouched by scandals and internal party squabbles, something unseen in Italy’s modern history. Losing the referendum would amount to the first real dent in her political armor and would hand a significant win to the opposition, putting her on a bumpy track before next year’s general election.

Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob has urged European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to investigate accusations that Israeli spy firm Black Cube interfered in the country’s election campaign, according to a letter obtained by POLITICO. “Such interference by a foreign private company poses a clear hybrid threat against the European Union and its Member States, which negatively impacts or potentially threatens our common values, procedures and political processes,” Golob wrote.  “It is troubling that such a pattern of coordinated deceptive behavior by a foreign non-state actor again occurred just days before the national parliamentary elections, thus presenting systemic risks to Slovenia’s democratic processes,” he added. Slovenia goes to the polls Sunday in an election pitting the liberal Golob against right-wing populist Janez Janša, who currently has a narrow lead according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. Leaked audio and video recordings, published earlier this month and apparently designed to tie Golob’s government to corruption, showed prominent Slovenian figures apparently discussing illegal lobbying and the misuse of state funds. Slovenian authorities this week announced that four operatives of Black Cube, a private intelligence firm founded by former members of the Israel Defense Forces, had visited the country and conducted “illegal surveillance” and “wiretapping.” Representatives for Black Cube did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story. In his letter, Golob pointed to previous operations carried out by Black Cube, including in Romania and Hungary in the last decade, to highlight its ongoing interference. “Given the continuous, systemic operations performed by Black Cube and the recent reported operations, they pose a direct challenge to the newly established European Democracy Shield,” Golob said. “As the European Centre for Democratic Resilience began its operational work in February 2026, this case provides a critical test of its mandate to protect Member States against foreign interference.” “I urge the Commission to investigate the reports and refer the matter to the European Centre for Democratic Resilience for an immediate threat assessment,” he added.  The European Democracy Shield is an EU initiative aimed at protecting member countries from foreign interference and hybrid threats by strengthening monitoring, coordination and rapid response to disinformation and covert influence operations.

BLACK CUBE, LEAKED TAPES AND CORRUPTION: ISRAELI SPY FIRM CRASHES SLOVENIA’S ELECTION  Foreign interference looms over the vote after accusations that a private intelligence company meddled in the campaign.   By ALI WALKER, SEBASTIAN STARCEVIC and ANTOANETA ROUSSI in Ljubljana Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO Slovenia’s election campaign was already steeped in acrimony.   Then operatives from a notable private intelligence company, founded by former members of the Israel Defense Forces, flew to Ljubljana in the depths of winter, Slovenian law enforcement authorities say.  The private jet that landed on a freezing December day was carrying Dan Zorella, CEO of Black Cube; Giora Eiland, former head of Israel’s National Security Council; and two other men, according to the authorities, who allege they were engaged in “covert surveillance and wiretapping.”  The Black Cube operatives now stand accused by Slovenian law enforcement of helping to leak recordings designed to undermine Prime Minister Robert Golob’s government by linking it to corruption, days before a knife-edge national election. The tapes show prominent Slovenian figures apparently discussing corruption, illegal lobbying and the misuse of state funds. Representatives for Black Cube did not respond to POLITICO’s requests for comment on the allegations. Slovenia goes to the polls Sunday for a vote that pits liberal Golob against the right-wing populist Janez Janša, who currently has a narrow lead according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. Golob has warned that victory for Janša — a pro-MAGA, four-time former premier — would threaten the fabric of the EU. For its part, Janša’s party routinely depicts Golob as a corrupt former energy tycoon.  The Black Cube allegations land at a moment of heightened anxiety in Europe over covert foreign interference in democratic elections, from influence operations to political sabotage. In Slovenia, they risk further polarizing a race that has come to symbolize a broader clash between liberal, pro-EU forces and an emboldened right-wing populist movement.  Golob’s left-liberal coalition and Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) are currently looking to utilize the leaked tape scandal to buttress attacks on each other. The SDS says the recordings — which feature a former minister, a top lawyer and other prominent figures — are proof of corruption at the highest levels of Slovenian society; while Golob’s supporters say the scandal is evidence that Janša is collaborating with foreign entities to retake power.   “The fact that covert surveillance and wiretapping in this case involve a private intelligence agency from Israel points to something deeply troubling. This is not just another incident, it raises serious concerns about the integrity of democratic processes in Slovenia,” Golob said this week.   “Any attempt by foreign actors to interfere in elections in a democratic member state of the European Union is unacceptable,” he added.   During a press conference Wednesday afternoon, Vojko Volk, Slovenia’s state secretary for national and international security, said that Black Cube representatives visited the country four times and that on Dec. 11 a team, including Zorella, spent time on the street that is home to SDS headquarters — though he stopped short of saying they went into the building.   Janša has threatened to sue activist Nika Kovač — from the Institute 8 organization that lobbies on social issues — who helped publish the initial report alleging that Black Cube operatives had made repeated visits to Slovenia and met with SDS officials.  Former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša attends a meeting in Brussels, Belgium on May 31, 2022. | Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images “Janez Janša will probably be surprised, but we are happy that the Slovenian Democratic Party will file lawsuits over revelations about the activities of the Israeli intelligence agency Black Cube in Slovenia,” Kovač told POLITICO. “We welcome all proceedings in which it can be revealed and clarified what this ‘Private Mossad’ was doing in Slovenia and with whom.”  Janša’s party said that “a monument should be erected in the middle of Ljubljana” in tribute to the Black Cube officials, if they had “truly uncovered all this corruption of unimaginable proportions.” On Wednesday night, Janša admitted that he had met with Black Cube’s Eiland, but said he could not recall on which date. ‘THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY’  Black Cube, a private intelligence firm founded in 2010, has offices in Tel Aviv, London and Madrid. It was started by Zorella and Avi Yanus, both of whom served in the Israel Defense Forces.   The firm’s methods — often rooted in human intelligence and undercover operations — have drawn sustained scrutiny, most notably in the case of convicted sex offender and Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein.  He was accused of hiring Black Cube to monitor journalists and female accusers, using operatives with fabricated identities to extract information in what became a defining example of private espionage deployed with the aim of suppressing allegations. A Black Cube board member later apologized. Black Cube’s advisory orbit has included prominent former Israeli intelligence officials such as Meir Dagan and Efraim Halevy, reinforcing its image as part of a broader ecosystem in which statecraft techniques migrate into the private sector.  In 2022, Romanian prosecutors convicted Black Cube operatives, including Zorella, in absentia of spying on anti-corruption chief Laura Kövesi. The men struck a plea deal with prosecutors. The firm also targeted critics of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán using fake LinkedIn profiles; while recordings later surfaced in pro-government media. A company spokesperson said at the time that it “always operates in full compliance of the law.” Slovenia’s Intelligence and Security Agency (SOVA) delivered a report to the National Security Council this week, which endorsed the claims about Black Cube’s meddling in the campaign.  The agency’s director “briefed us on facts indicating direct foreign interference with the Slovenian elections,” Volk said Wednesday morning. According to the SOVA director, “this interference was most likely commissioned from within Slovenia. Based on the available data, representatives of the company Black Cube have visited Slovenia four times in the last six months.”  “Black Cube is known for releasing fabricated material at precisely planned times, in this case, just before the elections,” Volk added. “These activities are intended to discredit individuals politically, which may pose a threat to national security and influence democratic elections.”  OPPOSITION ATTACKS  Beyond the espionage claims, the polarized campaign has been marked by a familiar pattern of political attacks.  Member of the European Parliament Romana Tomc is pictured at a meeting in Brussels on Jan. 27, 2025. | Martin Bertrand/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images If the opposition gets into power, its first order of business is lowering taxes, said SDS MEP Romana Tomc, as she took aim at the governing coalition on finances.  “What we have now after four years of Golob’s government is economic decline,” Tomc told POLITICO. “He [Golob] raised taxes a lot, and we will do what we can to lower them, because we would like people to have more in their pockets, and not only in the state budget.”  Tomc, who is also vice president of the European People’s Party group, hit out at Golob’s recent assertion to POLITICO that Janša, along with Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán, “will try to break up the European Union itself.”  SDS wants to reform the bloc rather than destroy it, she argued. “Our party, with the leadership of Janša, we are really pro-, pro-, pro-European,” Tomc said.  “We are really trying to make Europe better, to make it more functional. And we have, of course, no intention of destroying Europe,” she added. “Being critical to some policies within Europe, I think this is completely normal.”  With days to go before the election, Tomc launched a campaign against the EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, who hails from Golob’s party, arguing Kos misled the European Parliament when she denied collaborating with Yugoslavia’s secret police in her youth.  Europe’s biggest political group, the EPP, on Wednesday called for a special hearing in the European Parliament to grill Kos. ‘HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY’  During an interview at his party office in Ljubljana last month, Golob told POLITICO the election marked a “historic opportunity” for Slovenia to return the left-liberal coalition to power, which will “bring more stability to the country and most probably also to the neighborhood.”  Golob said he is determined to use a potential second mandate to drive forward a health care reform and boost the country’s economic competitiveness, after a first term that was marked by enduring troubles: Russia’s war on Ukraine; an energy crisis; and high inflation.  On Janša, Golob was scathing, accusing him of wasting public money and weaponizing law enforcement during his previous term in office. He also said that Janša would likely be inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies.   “We have a far-right leader who has been in power for three terms already, every time was worse. So the first time he didn’t do the things that we are discussing, but every term he comes, it gets worse when it comes to civil rights and the misuse of the law enforcement,” he added.  Golob leads a left-liberal coalition that includes his Freedom Movement, the Social Democrats and The Left, but he said that he’s willing to expand the tent for a second term. “We are open to include any other party or partner that is willing to support the extension and completion of our reforms,” he said.   According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls,Janša’s SDS leads the Freedom Movement by five percentage points, though Golob can remain in power by teaming up against him with other parties.  During the interview, before the Black Cube allegations, Golob had flagged what appeared to be increased online bot activity making its presence felt in the election campaign.  “Organized hybrid war started on social media, but we cannot attribute it yet to any state or political party — even though our right-populists are enjoying it very much and supporting it when it comes to sharing the information,” he said.  Ali Walker reported from Ljubljana. Seb Starcevic reported from Strasbourg. Antoaneta Roussi reported from Prague.  

BUDAPEST — If Brussels claws back €10 billion of EU funds controversially disbursed to Hungary, it will also have to recover as much as €137 billion from Poland too, Budapest’s EU affairs minister told POLITICO. The European Commission made a highly contentious decision in December 2023 to free up €10 billion of EU funds to Hungary that had been frozen because of weaknesses on rule of law deficiencies and backsliding on judicial independence. Members of the European Parliament condemned what looked like a political decision, offering a sweetener to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán just before a key summit where the EU needed his support for Ukraine aid. On Feb. 12, Court of Justice of the European Union Advocate General Tamara Ćapeta recommended annulling the decision, meaning Hungary may have to return the funds if the court follows in its final ruling in the coming months. Orbán has slammed the idea of a repayment as “absurd.” János Bóka, Hungary’s EU affairs minister, told POLITICO that clawing back the €10 billion from the euroskeptic government in Budapest would mean that Brussels should also be recovering cash from Poland, led by pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “We believe that the Commission’s decision was lawful … the opinion, I think, it’s legally excessive,” Bóka said. He warned that “if the Advocate General’s opinion is followed then the Commission would be legally required to freeze all the EU money going to Poland as well, which I think in any case the Commission is not willing to do.” The legal opinion on Hungary states the the Commission was wrong in unfreezing the funds “before the required legislative reforms had entered into force or were being applied,” Ćapeta said in February. Bóka said that would seem to describe the situation in Poland too. In February 2024, the EU executive released €137 billion in frozen funds to Tusk’s government in exchange for promised judicial reforms. But these have since been blocked by President Karol Nawrocki as tensions between the two worsen — spelling trouble for Poland’s continued access to EU cash. “It’s very easy to get the EU funds if they want to give it to you, as we could see in the case of Poland, where they could get the funds with a page-and-a-half action plan, which is still not implemented because of legislative difficulty,” Bóka said. Fundamentally, that is why Bóka said he believed “the court will not issue any judgment that would put Poland in a difficult position.” Bóka risks leaving office with Orbán after the April 12 election, with opposition leader Péter Magyar leading in the polls on a platform of unlocking EU funds, tackling corruption, and improving healthcare and education. The Commission is, separately, withholding another €18 billion of Hungarian funds — €7.6 billion in cohesion funds and €10.4 billion from the coronavirus recovery package. “I think Péter Magyar is right when he says that the Commission wants to give this money to them … in exchange, like they did in the case of Poland, they want alignment in key policy areas,” he said, “like support for Ukraine, green-lighting progress in Ukraine’s accession process, decoupling from Russian oil and gas, and implementing the Migration Pact.” “Just like in the case of Poland, they might allow rhetorical deviation from the line, but in key areas, they want alignment and compliance.” Poland’s Tusk has been vocal against EU laws, such as the migration pact and carbon emission reduction laws. Bóka also accused the Commission of deciding “not to engage in meaningful discussions [on EU funds] as the elections drew closer.” He added that if Orbán’s Fidesz were to win the election, “neither us nor the Commission will have any other choice than to sit down and discuss how we can make progress in this process.” Legal experts are cautious about assessing the potential impact of such a ruling, noting that the funds for Poland and Hungary were frozen under different legal frameworks. However, there is broad agreement that the case is likely to set some form of precedent over how the Commission handles disbursements of EU funds to its members. If the legal opinion is followed, “there could be a strong case against disbursing funds against Poland,” said Jacob Öberg, EU law professor at University of Southern Denmark. He said, however, that it is not certain the court will follow Ćapeta’s opinion because the cases assess different national contexts. Paul Dermine, EU law professor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles agreed the court ruling could “at least in theory, have repercussions on what happened in the Polish case,” but said that he thought judges would follow the legal opinion “as the wrongdoings of the Commission in the Hungarian case are quite blatant.”

LONDON — U.K. staff at the collapsed lobbying firm co-founded by Peter Mandelson were not given a paid consultation period before they lost their jobs, the company’s administrators have confirmed to POLITICO. Former employees of Global Counsel say that they are each thousands of pounds out of pocket after their roles and salaries ended last month. Some former staff, granted anonymity to talk about internal matters, have compared their situation unfavorably with that of Mandelson, who received a payout after Keir Starmer sacked him last year as Britain’s ambassador to the U.S. over his links with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The U.K. government handed Mandelson a £75,000 severance payment after he left his job as ambassador, according to documents released by the U.K. government. He had initially requested the remainder of his contracted salary, which would have totaled £547,201, and was paid out the smaller sum in an effort to prevent potential litigation over his severance, the documents showed. Mandelson separately transferred his 1.2 million remaining shares in Global Counsel to three people on Feb. 6, two weeks before the firm collapsed. It is not clear whether Mandelson was paid for the shares or how much, but they could potentially have been worth hundreds of thousands of pounds. Around 80 London-based staff lost their jobs when Global Counsel, which Mandelson co-founded in 2010, called in administrators on Feb. 19. Some former staff have compared their situation unfavorably with that of Mandelson, who received a payout after Keir Starmer sacked him last year as Britain’s ambassador to the U.S. | Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images Representatives for the administrators, Interpath Ltd, told staff the next day that their paid employment would end with immediate effect, said two former staff members, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal matters. However, the administrators did not provide a paid consultation period for staff who were being made redundant. PLANS TO FILE While it is common not to provide such a consultation period when firms go into insolvency, one is legally required in the U.K. for large-scale redundancies and must run for at least 30 days. This means former staff are entitled to file a mass legal claim in the form of applying for a “protective award,” compensating them for the lack of a consultation period through the U.K. employment tribunal system.  A spokesperson for the joint administrators at Interpath confirmed: “As the exit of customers left the company facing insolvency, the U.K. business was unable to continue to trade while the statutory notice periods be run.” Dozens of former U.K. staff are now planning to apply for a protective award, the same two former staff members told POLITICO. When a claim is successful against an insolvent firm, employees are able to receive a maximum of £5,752 each from the Insolvency Service. However, Interpath representatives warned in the Feb. 20 meeting that this process could take up to nine months, the same two former staff members said. ‘LET DOWN’ One of the two former staff members complained that they had suffered financial repercussions while watching Mandelson receive severance from the government. The other complained the situation had been “dealt with very, very badly” and staff had felt “let down.” However, a third person praised Global Counsel for running payroll before the firm’s collapse to ensure staff were paid up until the final day they had worked. Companies House records show Mandelson transferred his remaining 1,192,137 shares in Global Counsel on Feb. 6. Mandelson’s legal representatives did not respond to a request for comment. The firm said at the time that his shares had been fully acquired by three individuals — the firm’s then-Managing Director Rebecca Park plus “an existing board member [and] shareholder.” The firm did not disclose who those people were. Global Counsel has not announced how much, if anything, Mandelson was paid for his shares. Until the scandal, Global Counsel — from which Mandelson resigned as a director in May 2024 — had been boasting “significant progress.” Operating profit exceeded £1 million in 2024 thanks to what the company called a “significant market opportunity arising from increasing geopolitical uncertainty.”

BUDAPEST — As Hungarians awoke to a sunny national day on March 15, a question overshadowed the celebrations: Who would draw the larger crowd to the streets of Budapest? Would it be incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, still a formidable force after 16 years of uninterrupted rule? Or Péter Magyar, a less prickly opposition wild card who is bidding to bring down Orbán’s government? With less than a month to go until the April 12 election — and with Magyar’s opposition Tisza party polling about 10 points ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz — the national day festivities offered both parties a final chance to show off their strength and sway public opinion as the campaign enters its final stretch. “Everything is ready for the biggest event ever,” Magyar had said the evening before. “This will be the day when size truly matters,” he added Sunday morning. Meanwhile, as followers started gathering after 9 a.m. to march for Orbán, the Fidesz-aligned Magyar Nemzet newspaper said that “the crowd is huge.” Small wonder, then, that the two sides disputed who had attracted the bigger crowd. The Fidesz “peace march” rally at Kossuth Square, next to the Hungarian Parliament building. | Max Griera/POLITICO Fidesz shared data from the Hungarian Tourism Agency, which reported that Orbán’s “peace march” had drawn 180,000 people to the opposition’s 150,000; the agency, which is controlled by the government, based its estimate on how many cell phones had been connected to antennas near the respective rallies. But people close to Tisza estimated for POLITICO that their party had mobilized 350,000 attendees. DEFENDING HUNGARY AGAINST BRUSSELS, KYIV Hungary’s March 15 national day commemorates its revolution and war of independence to escape the rule of Austria’s Habsburg monarchy from 1848-1849. Both parties used the occasion to drive home their campaign slogans and espouse patriotism and national identity. Orbán’s Fidesz has focused on the war in Ukraine and Iran, portraying itself as the party of security but avoiding domestic issues. Tisza has campaigned on a platform of complete regime change. The competing events both featured national anthems and folk songs, most prominently “Nemzeti Dal” by Sándor Petőfi — an iconic poem and a cornerstone of Hungarian literature that is widely credited with helping spark the Hungarian Revolution in 1848. And both Orbán and Magyar called on Hungarians to rise and defend the country just like they did in 1956 against the Soviet occupation — the former invoking Ukraine as the threat, the latter another Orbán government after 16 years of uninterrupted rule. Orbán addressed his supporters beside the parliament in Kossuth Square, where they had marched from the Buda quarter of the capital across the Danube River. “We will not be a Ukrainian colony,” was the motto on the placards protesters carried, a slogan that Orbán had echoed on social media the day before. Budapest is embroiled in a furious dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the cessation of Russian oil flows across Ukraine and a stalled €90 billion EU loan to fund Kyiv’s war effort. Orbán has framed his rival Magyar as a Brussels proxy who will do as the EU and Ukraine say. “I said no to the Soviets,” Orbán told the rally. “I said no to Brussels, to the war, and I’m standing before the vote now, together with you, saying no to the Ukrainians.” Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó took the stage to claim that Brussels, Kyiv and Berlin “want to bring Europe to war” and “want the money of Europeans to be given to the Ukrainians.” Near Kossuth Square, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky Boulevard was at a standstill with dozens of buses still disgorging supporters from the countryside, who had been brought in to offset Budapest’s predominantly opposition voters. High school student Mikolt, 16, and her stay-at-home mother Daniela, 42, were arriving from the village of Eger in the northeast of the country. They said they supported Orbán because he is keeping Hungary out of the war in Ukraine and because he supports Christianity, the family and Hungarians. Tisza volunteers Balázs and Zsigmund on Andrássy Avenue before the march starts. | Max Griera/POLITICO Magyar is a “narcissist,” Daniela said, who “behaves like a wounded little child who no longer has any power” since leaving Fidesz in February 2024. “RUSSIANS GO HOME” A 20-minute walk away, the Tisza marchers were beginning to assemble. Volunteers Zsigmund and Balázs, both 18, agreed to talk with POLITICO, despite having received a caution from their team leader not to speak with media, as Orbán’s “propagandists” could use what they said against the party. Describing themselves as “patriots,” the two students are counting on Magyar to improve the country’s health care and education systems, which they said have been battered by years of misrule. “Orbán replaced skilled people with loyalists. Tisza has many professionals and they have a program, Fidesz hasn’t had a program for years,” Zsigmund said. For Balazs, who plans to study economics at a foreign university, the election is existential — he says he may not come back if Orbán wins. “I would prefer to come back, definitely, but let’s see what happens.” Once it gets going, the Tisza march fills the 2.5 kilometer-long Andrassy Avenue, heading for Heroes Square, where Magyar is due to speak at 17:00. On stage, the opposition leader promises to fix Hungary’s health care system, restore billions of euros in EU funding that has been frozen due to rule-of-law concerns regarding Orbán’s government, improve pensions and child support, boost the economy and fight corruption. Evoking Hungary’s “other” revolution — the 1956 uprising that killed 3,000 civilians — Magyar said Hungarians need to rise up again to regain their “freedom” and protect their rights. Framing the current government as an occupier that represses its “subjects,” he accused Orbán of allowing Russian agents in the country to meddle in the election. “Russians go home!” the crowd chanted, repeating: “It’s over!”

NYÍREGYHÁZA, Hungary — Hungarian Prime Viktor Orbán’s political dominance is in question for the first time in 16 years. And in his ruling party’s rural stronghold, younger voters are complaining their elderly relatives are still spellbound by him. Capitalizing on voter frustration over record inflation, economic malaise and endemic corruption, opposition figure Péter Magyar’s campaign has turned his once small center-right Tisza party into a strong anti-Orbán bloc that now holds a national lead in the polls. His promises of building a “modern, European Hungary” are resonating — particularly with the young. But not so much with the older generation who are more resistant to Magyar’s call for change. And that generational divide, younger voters worry, may be a decisive factor in what’s shaping up to be the country’s most consequential election since the end of Communism. The northeastern town of Nyíregyháza, where more than half the population is over 50 years old, is a prime example of this. Long a Fidesz fortress, town residents were hesitant to talk to media or share their last names for fear of online reprisal, particularly the older generation of ruling party supporters. However, some Tisza voters were willing to speak and lament their Orbán-supporting elders — like 27-year-old actor and former Fidesz voter Benji. Asking not to share his family name for fear of trolling on social media, “I’m rooting for Tisza, and I’m hoping there will be some change. The country is heading in the wrong direction, culturally and business-wise,” he told POLITICO. But, he added, in a conversation interrupting his short walk to the theater, “my mom is voting for Orbán because of the war. And her friends as well.” According to Benji, Orbán’s laser-like campaigning about the risks of being sucked into the war in neighboring Ukraine, and his relentless portrayal of Magyar as a Brussels stooge, is working like a spell on the elderly in Nyíregyháza, which is just 70 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. So, too, is his argument that the country needs political stability and that his is the safest pair of hands to navigate these highly dangerous times. Péter Magyar’s promises of building a “modern, European Hungary” are resonating — particularly with the young. | Ferenc Isza/AFP via Getty Images It’s not just in Nyíregyháza that the generational divide spells trouble for Magyar either. Tisza faces a similar problem in other eastern and southern towns, as Fidesz’s traditional heartland has seen a near-constant exodus of the young in search of jobs and opportunities in Budapest or overseas. This youthful flight has only buttressed Fidesz’s regional dominance over the years, and if Tisza is to oust the long-serving Hungarian leader, it will have to win at least some of these towns. And given Orbán’s incumbent advantages, dominance over government-owned airwaves and the largely obliging press controlled by his business allies, Tisza will only have a chance of unseating him if it can erode his party’s traditional vote. Nyíregyháza’s older population is particularly tight-lipped, but Katalin, a 70-year-old semi-retired credit advisor, was happy speak. Once a loyal Fidesz voter, she’s now doing her best to cajole her peers toward Tisza, though she admits whipping up support among her peers in her hometown has been tough, particularly because of the war. “I’m trying to convince everyone that I can to vote for the opposition. But, unfortunately, I have Fidesz voters in my circle. I can’t believe they’re not seeing what this filth is doing,” she said. Dotted around the town are Fidesz billboards depicting Magyar as Janus-like, with half his face transformed into the EU flag. Others group together portraits of Magyar, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, implying they’re all one and the same. “When I talk to my mom about politics, I feel like she’s brainwashed. I try to speak with her to raise her awareness and to encourage her to question things, so she could see behind what’s in the news. My mom is 64. But she and her friends are going to vote for Fidesz,” Benji similarly complained. Tisza will only have a chance of unseating Viktor Orbán if it can erode his party’s traditional vote. | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images Tibor, an IT worker, is encountering the same with his grandmother. “She’s a big fan of the ruling party. And one of my relatives is working for Fidesz, so they are, of course, voting for Orbán,” he explained. “I have no clue why anyone would vote for Fidesz. I feel like they’re just old and glued to watching the government TV channels. They have tunnel vision.” The last time Hungary held parliamentary elections in 2022, opposition hopes were similarly high, but that’s not how things turned out: Fidesz secured the highest vote share of any party in Hungary since the fall of Communism in 1989. “We won a victory so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels,” boasted an ebullient Orbán. And in the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg region, where Nyíregyháza is the county capital, Fidesz crushed the opposition with a 61 percent vote share — 7 percent higher than the party’s national take. Yet, Tisza is sure this time will be different, partly because it’s fielding local star László Gajdos as its main candidate here. Hungarians cast two votes — one for the national party list and another for their preferred candidate in single-member district constituencies. Of the 199 seats in the National Assembly, 106 are filled by winners of the district races, while the remaining 93 seats are distributed among winners of the party lists. And Gajdos, a highly popular director of the Nyíregyháza Zoo, is running on both. Even pro-Fidesz observers like Mráz Ágoston Sámuel, director of the research consultancy Nézőpont Institute, expect Tisza to win more national list seats “because opposition voters are very much concentrated in the cities, especially in Budapest. From the party list, we estimate Fidesz will get about 40 seats,” he told POLITICO. But the real fight will be in the districts, and Fidesz will still win the majority there, he said. Tisza disagrees. Péter Lajos Szakács, one of the party’s candidates in Nyíregyháza, told POLITICO he’s confident the party will win. “In Nyíregyháza, we will win with a landslide. I’m in the second district and Gajdos is in the first. He’ll have a historic win. With me, what I can say is that right now, I’m in a tie with my opponent. But we’re working hard, so we can send him into retirement, and he can then spend time with his grandkids,” he said confidently. But local supporters POLITICO spoke to weren’t quite so convinced the electoral struggle in Nyíregyháza is over. “I wouldn’t dare make any predictions,” cautioned Benji. However, most of them did say they thought the election outcome would be close. And that in itself suggests Fidesz isn’t likely to scale the heights it did in 2022. Dotted around the town are Fidesz billboards depicting Magyar as Janus-like, with half his face transformed into the EU flag. | Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images Ultimately, in the districts outside Budapest, much will depend on whether Fidesz can once again mobilize its supporters and get out the vote. In the past, the party was highly efficient in doing so, but in a video of party workers gathered for “warrior training” in October, Orbán was seen fuming about the state of the party’s databases, complaining they were in bad shape. Even so, according to 76-year-old retail store owner Júlia, soothsaying might be a mistake. Unlike most of her contemporaries, Júlia thinks Hungary desperately needs change: “I don’t want to say who I’m voting for. My main criterion is that my kids and my grandkids get to stay here. And that they can make a living, and I don’t think that will happen unless things change. Life will then get easier here,” she mused. In the meantime, with political tensions running high, her business is being impacted. Gesturing to the empty street in downtown Nyíregyháza, she said: “Everything is so quiet. We can really feel it. People are saving up their money. They’re scared of what the future will bring.”

Albania’s parliament on Thursday voted against lifting immunity for its former Deputy Prime Minister Belinda Balluku, who is facing corruption charges, prompting warnings from Brussels about the implications for the country’s EU membership bid. Prime Minister Edi Rama and his ruling Socialist Party shielded Balluku, who is targeted for arrest by Albania’s special prosecutor, SPAK, for interfering with infrastructure projects totaling more than €200 million. Balluku was dismissed by Rama in late February, both as deputy prime minister and as minister for infrastructure and energy. She denies any wrongdoing. “The EU takes note of the results of today’s vote in the Albanian parliament. Commitment to the rule of law and the fight against corruption are of paramount importance for the EU accession process,” a European Commission spokesperson told POLITICO Thursday. “Ensuring a conducive environment for SPAK to effectively carry out its work is essential to credibly sustain Albania’s progress towards EU membership,” the spokesperson added. The embassies of Germany, the U.K. and the Netherlands also reacted to the vote, echoing Brussels’ sentiment calling for the judicial process not to be tampered with. For Albania to join the EU, “the effective prosecution of corruption, even in high-profile cases, is an essential prerequisite,” Germany’s embassy in Tirana said in a statement, calling for Albania’s government to respect the rule of law. “It is our clear expectation that the judiciary will be able to prosecute these cases swiftly and without hindrance,” it added. Rama responded with a statement on X, saying that “we all agree 100 percent” with the “expressed principles.” He insisted on Albania’s path into the EU by 2030 and that the government in Tirana fully supports SPAK. “The governing majority today did exactly what any democratic parliament in Europe would do,” the prime minister wrote. He argued that approving prosecutors’ requests to arrest an MP must follow the constitution and cannot be treated like “crossing Schengen borders without checks.” Balluku’s predecessor, Arben Ahmetaj, is also wanted by SPAK on corruption and money-laundering charges. The Albanian Ministry of Justice filed a request for Swiss authorities to extradite him in late 2025. Tirana Mayor Erion Veliaj, another member of Rama’s party, has been in pre-trial detention since his 2025 arrest on similar charges.

Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar is accusing the Kremlin of supporting the election campaign of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán with a new barrage of disinformation videos that are supposed to appear on Thursday. Orbán is the EU leader closest to Russian President Vladimir Putin — and a persistent obstacle to Brussels’ support for Ukraine — but he now faces the toughest fight of his political career in Hungary’s April 12 election, where polls put him about 10 points behind Magyar.   Magyar — a former member of Orbán’s Fidesz party, who understands its playbook — said on Tuesday he’d received information that the attack would take the form of “14 AI-generated smear videos,” and complained that the disinformation campaign had been produced “with the help of Russian intelligence services.” People in Magyar’s Tisza party and analysts in Budapest have long expected the race to get dirty as it enters the final stretch. Magyar’s tactic is to sound the alarm on the alleged impending smear attacks against Tisza before they land, hoping to blunt their impact. That’s the same strategy he adopted in mid-February, when faced with the prospect that his opponents could release a sex tape featuring him. He went public and accused Fidesz of planning to release a tape “recorded with secret service equipment and possibly faked, in which my then-girlfriend and I are seen having intimate intercourse.”   For now, that intervention seems to have worked, and such a video has not yet been released. BLOWING THE WHISTLE On Thursday, just as Magyar arrives to campaign in a constituency on the Danube close to Budapest, his team expects Fidesz to target the local candidate and her family with AI-generated videos which will be promoted via fake accounts. Magyar announced his concerns on social media, and called on Orbán “to immediately halt the planned election fraud and order Russian agents out of Hungary.” “By advancing what’s going to happen, we hope to neutralize it … whenever we had any information, [Magyar] made it public right away,” Zoltan Tarr, Tisza’s No. 2 and a long-time Magyar confidant, told POLITICO. “The system is not 100 percent waterproof or leakproof. And we always get some hints of what will be Fidesz’s next move,” he added. It’s too early to assess whether this strategy of going public will be successful for the sex tape and future smear campaigns, said Péter Krekó, executive director of Political Capital, an independent policy research consultancy. But he added that anticipating Fidesz’s moves had worked “really well” to build Magyar’s “Teflon image” because no scandals had yet “burnt” him. Tisza has also raised the specter of foreign interference, openly accusing Orbán of inviting Russian spies to meddle in the election, following reports by independent media VSquare and journalist Szabolcs Panyi. Fidesz denies the allegations. “The left-wing allegation linked to journalist Szabolcs Panyi, claiming Russian interference in the elections, is false,” the Hungarian government’s international communications office told POLITICO in a statement. “No information supports the presence or activities in Hungary of the specific individuals named by Szabolcs Panyi, or of any other persons allegedly engaged in such activities. Other countries’ intelligence services also have no concrete information regarding this matter.” Fidesz members insist Magyar is financed by Ukraine with the aim of installing a puppet government that will be loyal to Kyiv and Brussels. They accuse Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of interfering in the election by blocking Russian oil imports via the Druzhba pipeline and threatening the life of Orbán. The latter allegation came after the Ukrainian leader insinuated he would refer Orbán to Ukrainian troops for a direct talk “in their own language.” The leading Fidesz lawmaker in the European Parliament, Tamás Deutsch, turned the tables and accused Tisza of spreading false information. “As part of this serious interference, the pro-Ukrainian and pro-Brussels Tisza party is spreading disinformation through sympathetic media outlets in Brussels and Hungary,” he told POLITICO. “Hungary and its government will not accept pressure or interference in its democratic processes and will do their utmost to stand up for the interests of the Hungarian people.” FORCING RESIGNATIONS Because the deadline to register candidates for the April 12 vote has passed, the names on the party lists can’t be changed. For this reason, analysts say, Fidesz may now try to dig up dirt on Tisza candidates in the 106 constituencies to knock them out of the race with no hope of replacement. “There are some people who have had certain issues in their lives in the past. Nothing criminal, but perhaps they had a company that had to be closed down, or they went through a divorce, or something similar. These things then can be used as hooks to try to infiltrate the psyche of the candidate, creating false narratives around them,” said Tisza’s Tarr. The campaign that Magyar alleges will be launched on Thursday targets a candidate for the fifth district in Pest, Orsolya Miskolczi. He has not given further details, but Kontroll, a media platform close to Tisza whose publisher is Magyar’s brother, suggested in an article that Fidesz will try to link Miskolczi to a high-level corruption scandal in the Hungarian National Bank, where her husband worked as a legal advisor. The Financial Times on Wednesday reported the Kremlin had endorsed a plan by a communications agency under western sanctions to support Fidesz in the election, including by targeting controversial Tisza candidates. The objective of such smear campaigns “is to push us as far as possible and break us, or force us to give up,” Tarr said, adding the muckraking also targets family members and takes a psychological toll. “They are singling out some of us in the hope that one might resign,” he added.