Trio of Spanish regional elections spells trouble for Sánchez

MADRID — Spain’s conservatives hope a trio of impending regional elections will collapse the government of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the EU’s only remaining heavyweight national leader from the center left.

First up this Sunday is the northeastern region of Aragón, dubbed the “Spanish Ohio” thanks to its track record as a barometer of the national mood. The center-right People’s Party (PP) appears to be heading for victory, but a surging far right is likely to make the biggest gains.

Aragón will be followed by two more elections in PP-held regions — Castilla y León in March and Andalusia in June. For the conservatives, the goal is to seize on the corruption scandals in the Socialist party, which have severely weakened Sánchez, to confirm the PP’s regional dominance and dial up pressure on the government in Madrid.

Speaking to supporters on the campaign trail in the town of Calatayud, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the PP, called on Aragón’s voters “to be the spokespeople of all Spaniards on Sunday at the ballot box.”

“Friends, vote to stop the lies, to stop the corruption, to stop the arrogance and to stop the discredit into which national politics has fallen,” he said.

Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at Barcelona’s Autonomous University, said the key across these regional elections was to build momentum at the national level.

“The [PP’s] intention is to convert all these elections into a national story,” he said. “If the PP wins and the Socialists suffer a bad defeat, that will be used to say that Sánchez must step down because his party is in freefall.”

Piling on the pressure

Sánchez’s coalition is already on the ropes following a storm of scandals.

Probes into a kickback scheme implicating two former senior Socialists, as well as sexual harassment allegations concerning other figures in the party, have been hogging headlines in recent months. An ongoing investigation into the business dealings of Sánchez’s wife and the upcoming trial of his brother on charges of influence peddling have given the opposition further ammunition.

Meanwhile, two January train crashes that killed a combined 47 people and triggered rail chaos in some parts of Spain have added to the government’s woes.

A ballot held in the western region of Extremadura in December handed the PP electoral momentum: The party made modest gains while the Socialists lost 10 of their 28 seats.

The Aragón election is a snap ballot called by regional president Jorge Azcón amid a parliamentary impasse that followed a decision by the far-right Vox to withdraw support for the conservatives.

“Friends, vote to stop the lies, to stop the corruption, to stop the arrogance and to stop the discredit into which national politics has fallen,” Alberto Núñez Feijóo said. | ZIPI/EPA

Polls suggest Aragón is heading for a similar result to Extremadura, with the PP clearly ahead and possibly making slight gains. The Socialists, meanwhile, are left hoping to avoid their worst-ever result in the region. Polls have the PP on track to win about 28 seats in the 67-seat assembly, with Vox taking 12 to 14 and the Socialists 17 or 18.

In every general election since the country’s return to democracy in 1977, the winning party in Aragón has been the national overall victor, earning it the “Spanish Ohio” nickname — although analysts say its capital Zaragoza and the province that surrounds it currently provide a more reliable measure of the national vote.

With a surface area slightly greater than that of Switzerland, the region borders Catalonia to the east and France to the north, encompassing vast rural areas. But it has also developed a reputation as a technological hub, and Zaragoza is Spain’s fifth-largest city.

Warnings about Vox

The Socialists have also given the election a national dimension by deploying the former minister of education, training and sport, Pilar Alegría, as their candidate.

The warning from the Socialists is that Vox — which triggered the regional election in a clash with the PP over the acceptance of unaccompanied migrant children — could still ultimately agree to form a majority with the PP after extracting concessions.

The Aragón election is a snap ballot called by regional president Jorge Azcón amid a parliamentary impasse that followed a decision by the far-right Vox to withdraw support for the conservatives. | Chema Moya/EPA

Prime Minister Sánchez has campaigned alongside Alegría, urging voters to mobilize against the prospect of a consolidated PP-Vox majority, which he casts as part of an international radical right-wing tide.

“The question we have to ask ourselves here in Aragón is: What you don’t want for the rest of the world, do you want that for Europe, for Spain and for Aragón?” the prime minister said at a campaign rally in the city of Teruel. He condemned the “misogyny and hate” of Vox, which he warned could form part of a coalition with the PP if they secured a majority.

Tomás Guitarte, the leading candidate for Aragón Exists, which seeks to represent voters in rural areas, said such debates have distracted from more pressing concerns.

“Sixty percent of the population of Aragón lives in two percent of its territory, while the rest are suffering serious problems related to depopulation,” he told POLITICO. 

“They should be talking about this but instead the national leaders come here and turn the campaign into a national debate, focused on what concerns them in Madrid more than the real concerns of Aragón,” he said.

Guitarte also pointed to housing as a serious concern for voters. Describing itself as cutting across party lines, Aragón Existe presents itself as a potential coalition partner for the PP, which is unlikely to secure an outright majority.

However, Vox is likely to be the PP’s only viable partner and the one set to make the most substantial gains. The national conservative party has been courting the region’s farming sector with attacks on EU agricultural policy while condemning the central government’s willingness to welcome migrants. Polls show Vox could come close to doubling its seven seats, echoing its strong performance in national polls.

The Socialists have also given the election a national dimension by deploying the former minister of education, training and sport, Pilar Alegría, as their candidate. | Mariscal/EPA

Bartomeus said the PP was struggling to fend off the electoral threat posed by Vox, which divides the right.

“The more Vox’s support increases, the worse the PP will perform,” he said. “The PP doesn’t go up substantially because part of its voter base is going to Vox.”

Political analysts don’t generally believe the Aragón result alone could force Sánchez to bring forward the general election, scheduled for 2027. But the cumulative effect of defeats there, in Castilla y León and, above all, in the former Socialist stronghold of Andalusia could make it very hard for Sánchez to hang on.