Mercosur gamble shows von der Leyen thinks she can go over France’s head

Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to provisionally implement the EU-Mercosur trade deal has unleashed a wave of outrage in Paris.

It has also shown the European Commission president is increasingly prepared to take decisions without factoring France into the equation, with the end of French President Emmanuel Macron’s term at the Elysée only 14 months away.

Von der Leyen announced Friday that the EU would provisionally implement its trade deal with the South American Mercosur bloc, even after the European Parliament voted last month to send the accord for review by the Court of Justice of the European Union, effectively freezing its final ratification for up to two years.

The Commission chief said she consulted widely with countries and lawmakers. However, shortly after the announcement, Macron said that “for France, it’s a surprise, and an unpleasant one.” A chorus of French ministers and lawmakers also slammed the decision, accusing officials in Brussels of ignoring the will of EU citizens.

Two French officials confirmed to POLITICO that the government in Paris was not informed in advance of von der Leyen’s decision to force through a deal that France has been fighting against for years, amid an overwhelming backlash from the country’s political parties, influential farmers and public opinion.

Diplomats and officials from other EU members, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly on a sensitive issue, were quick to draw the conclusion that France’s influence in Brussels is fading and that the European Commission chief now thinks she can deliberately ignore the opposition of a French president who will leave power next year.

“I don’t know which of the two is worse for the French: not having been informed or not having been able to block the Commission. I think the former,” said one EU government official.

“Macron must have been the only person in Europe to be surprised,” joked one EU diplomat.

While von der Leyen had long made clear that she wanted the deal to enter into force soon, uncertainty loomed over whether the Commission was ready to sideline the European Parliament and go for an early implementation of an agreement that would create a free-trade area among between the EU and Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, spanning 720 million people.

“French officials were confident this would not happen,” said a second EU diplomat.

Trade tensions

French Trade Minister Nicolas Forissier, in an interview with POLITICO on Thursday, said France was aiming to use the time of the judicial review to obtain reassurances from the Commission on French requests to protect farmers.

Forissier vowed “to use the additional time granted by the European Court of Justice to continue discussions with the Commission and arrive at specific answers on all issues, particularly on the question of mirror measures and [sanitary] checks.”

But things went differently as von der Leyen decided there was no need to wait for the court verdict.

Von der Leyen had already raised tensions with Macron in January, when she signed the Mercosur trade deal in Paraguay after a majority of EU countries backed it against France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary.

Political instability at home and the rise of transatlantic trade tensions hindered French efforts to block or to substantially change the deal during years-long negotiations with the Commission.

The EU executive received the go-ahead from EU countries to implement the deal once Mercosur countries complete their own approvals. Both Argentina and Uruguay ratified the agreement Thursday.

To become final, after the court review the agreement still needs the final nod of the Parliament, which might now be harder to get after the European Commission skirted EU lawmakers.

Von der Leyen didn’t want to waste time. She announced the provisional application the following day, ignoring once again the French call to wait until the end of the judicial review.

In return Macron, who cannot run for a third consecutive term and is set to leave the Elysée in spring 2027, slammed von der Leyen’s Commission, saying “European citizens and their representatives [had] not been duly respected.” The dispute marks an unprecedented clash between the two.

“I will never defend an agreement that is lax on imports and tough on domestic production, because it is inconsistent for European consumers and criminal for European sovereignty,” Macron said.