PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron’s wife Brigitte apologized for being caught calling feminist activists sales connes — which roughly translates to “stupid bitches”— but said she should be able to speak her mind away from the cameras. Interviewed by online news outlet Brut, Macron insisted that her remarks were made in private — she was attending a show by comedian Ary Abittan, who had been accused of rape in a case which was later dismissed — and that she would not have used these words in public. “I’m sorry if I hurt female victims [of sexual assault],” Macron said. She then added: “I’m the president’s wife, but I’m also myself, and in a private context, I can let myself loose in a way which isn’t appropriate … people have the right to [freely] speak and think.” In a since-deleted clip published by gossip outlet Public, Macron is seen asking comedian Abittan, before his performance, how he is doing, to which he responds that he is “afraid,” likely referring to the possibility of protesters interrupting his show. The French first lady then responds: “If there are stupid bitches, we’ll toss them out.” A small group of activists wearing cardboard masks with Abittan’s face attempted to interrupt a show in Paris, yelling “Abittan rapist” while being pushed back by security, video published by French outlet Le Média showed. Macron’s comments drew outrage from French politicians, feminist organizations and film industry celebrities alike. The hashtag #JeSuisUneSaleConne (#IAmAStupidBitch), launched in solidarity with the protesters, was shared by several high-profile figures, including Judith Godrèche — a French actress who has played a central role in confronting sexual violence in the film industry — and Oscar winner Marion Cotillard. Abittan is on his first tour since investigating judges decided not to charge him with a crime after he was accused of rape. While the plaintiff was found to have suffered post-traumatic stress, justice officials said they could not establish sufficient grounds to determine that the sexual encounter had been forced. Abittan has denied wrongdoing and said the act was consensual.

PARIS — Far-right presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen has criticized France’s participation in European defense programs, arguing they’re a waste of money that should be spent on the country’s military instead. “[French President Emmanuel] Macron has consistently encouraged European institutions to interfere in our defense policy,” she told French lawmakers on Wednesday. Slamming the European Defence Fund and the European Peace Facility — two EU-level defense funding and coordination initiatives — and industrial defense projects between France and Germany, she said: “A great deal of public money has been wasted and precious years have been lost, for our manufacturers, for our armed forces and for the French people.” Le Pen was speaking in the National Assembly during a debate about boosting France’s defense budget. Some 411 MPs of the 522 lawmakers present voted in favor of increasing military expenditures — although the Greens and the Socialists warned they won’t let social spending suffer as a result. The far-right National Rally has an anti-EU agenda and is wary of defense industrial cooperation with Germany. Le Pen criticized Macron’s proposal this past summer to enter into a strategic dialogue with European countries on how France’s nuclear deterrent could contribute to Europe’s security. She also slammed the Future Air Combat System, a project to build a next-generation fighter jet with Germany and Spain, describing it as a “blatant failure.” She hinted she would axe the program if she won power in France’s next presidential elections, scheduled for 2027, along with another initiative to manufacture a next-generation battle tank with Berlin, known as the Main Ground Combat System. Le Pen claimed that France’s military planning law was contributing to EU funds that were, in turn, being spent on foreign defense contractors. “Cutting national defense budgets to create a European defense system actually means financing American, Korean or Israeli defense companies,” she said. Marine Le Pen criticized Emmanuel Macron’s proposal this past summer to enter into a strategic dialogue with European countries on how France’s nuclear deterrent could contribute to Europe’s security. | Pool Photo by Sebastien Bozon via Getty Images The French government has long pushed for Buy European clauses to be attached to the use of EU money, with mixed results. “[European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen did not hear you, or perhaps did not listen to you, promising to purchase large quantities of American weapons in the unfair trade agreement with President [Donald] Trump,” Le Pen declared. In reality, the EU-U.S. trade deal agreed earlier this year contains no legally binding obligation to buy U.S. arms.

PARIS — How do you celebrate a major anniversary of the world’s most significant climate treaty while deprioritizing the fight against climate change?   That’s the quandary in Paris heading into Friday, when the landmark Paris Agreement turns 10.   With budgets strapped and the fight against climate change losing political momentum, the only major celebration planned by the French government consists of a reception inside the Ministry of Ecological Transition hosted by the minister, Monique Barbut, according to the invitation card seen by POLITICO.  Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu won’t be there, and it’s unclear if President Emmanuel Macron will attend.  Lecornu will be talking about health care in the region of Eure, where he’s from. Macron’s plans for Friday are not yet public, but the day before he’ll address the “consequences of misinformation on climate change” as part of a nationwide tour to speak with French citizens about technology and misinformation.  According to two ministerial advisers, the Elysée Palace had initially planned to organize an event, details of which were not released, but it was canceled at the last minute. When contacted about the plans, the Elysée did not respond.  Even if Macron ends up attending the ministerial event, the muted nature of the celebration is both a symptom of the political backlash against Europe’s green push and a metaphor for the Paris Agreement’s increasingly imperiled legacy — sometimes at the hands of France itself, which had been supposed to act as guarantor of the accord.  “France wants to be the guardian of the Paris Agreement, [but] it also needs to implement it,” said Lorelei Limousin, a climate campaigner at Greenpeace. “That means really putting the resources in place, particularly financial resources, to move away from fossil fuels, both in France and internationally.”  PARIS AGREEMENT’S BIRTHDAY PLANNER  Before being appointed to government, Barbut was Macron’s special climate envoy and had been tasked with organizing the treaty’s celebration. She told POLITICO in June that she hoped to use the annual Paris Peace Forum to celebrate the anniversary, then bring together hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists in late November and welcome them at the Elysée.   Those events, which have already come and gone, were supposed to be followed by a grand finale on Friday.   According to one of the ministerial advisers previously cited, the moratorium on government communications spending introduced in October by the prime minister threw a wrench in those plans.   “We’d like to do something more festive, but the problem is that we have no money,” the adviser said.   Environmentalists say the muted plans point to a government that remains mired in crisis and shows little interest in prioritizing climate change. Lecornu is laser-focused on getting a budget passed before the end of the year, whereas Macron’s packed agenda sees him hopscotching across the globe to tackle geopolitical crises and touring France to talk about his push to regulate social media.  Anne Bringault, program director at the Climate Action Network, accused the government of trying to minimize the anniversary of the treaty “on the sly” because there “is no political support” for a celebration. Some hope the government will use the occasion to present an update of its climate roadmap, the national low-carbon strategy, which is more than two years overdue.  They also still hope that Lecornu will change his plans and show up to mark the occasion. Apart from his trip to his fiefdom in the Eure, the prime minister’s schedule shows no appointments. His office told POLITICO that Lecornu has no plans to change his schedule for the time being.  As for Macron, it’s still unclear what he’ll be doing on Friday. This story is adapted from an article published by POLITICO in French.

President Donald Trump’s pursuit of an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly being driven by his own impatience — with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders who Trump believes are standing in the way of both peace and future economic cooperation between Washington and Moscow. Trump, who has called for Russia’s return to the G7 and spoken repeatedly about his eagerness to bring Russia back into the economic fold, laid bare his frustrations Monday at the White House with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns for a special episode of “The Conversation.” He derided European leaders as talkers who “don’t produce” and declared that Zelenskyy has “to play ball” given that, in his view, “Russia has the upper hand.” Zelenskyy, who Trump grumbled hadn’t read the latest peace proposal, spent Monday working with the leaders of France, Germany and Britain on a revision of the Americans’ 28-point proposal that he said has been shaved down to 20 points. “We took out openly anti-Ukrainian points,” Zelenskyy told a group of reporters in Kyiv, emphasizing that Ukraine still needs stronger security guarantees and that he isn’t ready to give Russia more land in the Donbas than its military currently holds. With Russia unlikely to budge from its demands, the White House-driven peace talks appear stalled. And as Trump’s irritation deepens, pressure is mounting on the Europeans backing Zelenskyy to prove Trump wrong. “He says we don’t produce, and I hate to say it, but there’s been some truth to that,” said a European official, one of three interviewed for this report who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. “We are doing it now, but we have been slow to realize we are the solution to our problem.” The official pointed to NATO’s increased defense spending commitments and the PURL initiative, through which NATO allies are buying U.S. weapons to send to Ukraine, as evidence that things have started to shift. But in the near term, the European Union is struggling to convince Belgium to support a nearly $200 billion loan to Ukraine funded with seized Russian assets. “If we fail on this one, we’re in trouble,” said a second European official. Trump’s mounting pressure on Ukraine makes clear that months of careful management of the president through private texts, public flattery and general deference has gotten Europe very little. But Liana Fix, a senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the leaders on the other side of the Atlantic “know very well that they can’t just stand up to Trump and tell him courageously that, you know, this is not how you treat Europe, because [of] the existential dependence that is still there between Europe and the United States.” Still, some in Europe continue to express shock and revulsion over Trump’s lopsided diplomacy in favor of Russia, disputing the president’s assessment during his POLITICO interview that Putin’s army has the upper hand despite its slow advance across the Donbas, more than half of which is now in Russian control. “Our view is not that Ukraine is losing. If Russia was so powerful they would have been able to finish the war within 24 hours,” a third European diplomat said. “If you think that Russia is winning, what does that mean — you give them everything? That’s not a sustainable peace. You’ll reward the Russians for their aggression and they will look for more – not only in Ukraine but also in Europe.” Trump has refused to approve additional defense aid to Ukraine, while blasting his predecessor for sending billions in aid — approved by Democrats and many Republicans in Congress — to help the country defend itself following Russia’s Feb. 2022 invasion. Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, said Trump’s brief that Russia is prevailing on the battlefield doesn’t match the reality. “Russia has not achieved its strategic objectives in Ukraine. It has completely failed in its initial objective to take Kyiv and subjugate the country, and it has even failed in its more limited objective in taking all of the Donbas and neutering Ukraine from a security perspective,” Sullivan said, adding that he thinks Ukraine could prevail militarily with stronger U.S. support. “But if the United States throws Ukraine under the bus and essentially takes Russia’s side functionally, then things, of course, are much more difficult for Ukraine, and that seems to be the direction of travel this administration is taking.” The White House did not respond to a request for additional comment. Clearly eager to normalize relations with Moscow, Trump appears to be motivated more by the prospect of cutting deals with Putin than maintaining a transatlantic alliance built on shared democratic principles. Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who served on Trump’s national security council in his first term, noted that the U.S.-Russia diplomacy involves three people with business backgrounds and investment portfolios: special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner on the U.S. side and Russia’s Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign investment fund. “Putin’s always thinking about what’s the angle here? How do I approach somebody? He’s got the number of President Trump,” Hill said Monday on a Brookings Institution podcast. “He knows he wants to make a deal, and he’s emphasizing this, and all the context is business, not really as diplomacy.” Additionally, Trump is eager to end Europe’s decades-long dependence on the U.S., which he believes has been saddled with the burden of its continental security for far too long. Ending the war with a deal that largely favors Putin would not only burnish Trump’s own self-conception as a global peacemaker — it would serve final notice to Europe that many of America’s oldest and most steadfast allies are truly on their own. Trump’s new national security strategy, released last week, made that point explicit, devoting more words to the threat of Europe’s civilizational decline — castigating the entire continent over its immigration and economic policies — than to threats posed by China, Russia or North Korea. Asked by POLITICO if European countries would continue to be U.S. allies, Trump demurred: “It depends,” he said, harshly criticizing immigration policies. “They want to be politically correct, and it makes them weak.” Europe, despite years of warnings from Trump and their own growing awareness about the need for what French President Emanuel Macron has called “strategic autonomy,” has been slow to mobilize its defenses to be able to defend the continent — and Ukraine — on its own. At Trump’s behest, NATO members agreed in June to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP over the coming decade. And NATO is now purchasing U.S. weapons to send to Ukraine through a new NATO initiative. But it may be too little, too late as the war grinds into a fourth winter with Ukraine’s military low on ammunition, weapons and morale. “That is why they will continue to engage this administration despite the strategy,” Fix said. And while Trump sees Ukraine and European stubbornness as the primary impediment to peace, many longtime diplomats believe that it’s his own unwillingness to ratchet up pressure on Moscow — Trump imposed new sanctions on Russian oil last month, only to pull some of them back — that is rendering his peacemaking efforts so fruitless. “It’s not enough to want peace. You’ve got to create a context in which the protagonists are willing to compromise either enthusiastically or reluctantly,” said Richard Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations who served as a senior adviser to Secretary of State Colin Powell in the George W. Bush administration. “The president has totally failed to do that, so it’s not a question of wordsmithing. In order to succeed at the table, you have to succeed away from the table. And they have failed to do that.” Veronika Melkozerova, Ari Hawkins and Daniella Cheslow contributed to this report.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s wife Brigitte sparked outrage after calling feminist protesters sales connes — roughly translated as “stupid bitches” — backstage at a comedy show. In a since-deleted clip published by gossip outlet Public, Brigitte Macron is seen asking comedian Ary Abittan before his performance how he is doing, to which the former responds that he is “afraid,” likely referencing the possibility of protesters interrupting his show. Abittan is on his first tour since investigating judges decided not to charge him with a crime after he was accused of rape. While the plaintiff was found to have suffered post-traumatic stress, justice officials said they could not establish sufficient grounds to determine that the sexual encounter had been forced. Abittan has denied wrongdoing and said the act was consensual. After Abittan said he was afraid, the French first lady responded: “if there are stupid bitches, we’ll toss them out.” Abittan’s return was protested by the feminist group Nous Toutes, whose members disrupted the show to denounce what they called a “communication campaign aimed at portraying him as a traumatized person while humiliating and belittling the victim.” In a statement to French newswire AFP published Monday, Macron’s office said the remark should be understood as “criticism of the radical methods used by those who disrupted and obstructed Ary Abittan’s show.” Condemnation came from political figures across party lines, as well as activists and film industry professionals. Marine Tondelier, head of the French Greens, called the remark “extremely grave” and conservative Senator Agnès Evren described it as “very sexist.” Prisca Thévenot, a lawmaker from the president’s party and former government spokesperson, deemed the comment “inelegant.” “When it comes to women fighting against violence against women, we don’t speak that way,” former President François Hollande said Tuesday on RTL. Judith Godrèche, the French actress who has played a central role in confronting sexual violence in the film industry, took to Instagram to criticize Macron. “I too am a stupid bitch. And I support all the others,” she wrote.

European industry is facing a “life or death” moment, says French President Emmanuel Macron, squeezed between an ultra-competitive China and a protectionist America — and Beijing should ride to its rescue with long overdue foreign investment. “The Chinese have to do in Europe what the Europeans did 25 years ago by investing in China,” Macron told the Les Echos financial newspaper upon returning from his fourth official trip to Beijing since 2018. The continent’s trade deficit with China was €306 billion in 2024, on some €213 billion in exports against €519 billion in imports. “I am trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is untenable and that they are killing their own customers, mainly by not importing much from us,” the French leader said. A similar imbalance exists between Europe’s €232 billion investment stock in China — the total value of accumulated portfolio investments and FDI — and China’s €65 billion in Europe, according to data for 2023. “We recognize that they are very good in some areas. But we can’t be constantly importing,” Macron said. “Chinese businesses have to come to Europe, just like EDF and Airbus previously went to China, and create value and opportunities for Europe.” He added, however, that “Chinese investments in Europe must not be predatory, by which I mean in pursuit of hegemony and creating dependencies.” France takes up the 2026 presidency of the G7 group of major advanced economies on Jan. 1 and will host the G7 summit in Evian, France, in June. Bloomberg reported last month that Macron is considering inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping to the summit and intends to use its presidency to restore the G7 to its former global standing. Macron warned in the Les Echos interview that Europe might be forced to slap customs duties on Chinese imports, as the U.S. has done under Donald Trump, and accused Beijing of “hitting the heart of Europe’s innovation and industrial model.” But rather than more confrontation, the French president proposed a truce with Beijing — “the mutual dismantling of our aggressive policies, such as restrictions on the export of semiconductor machines on the European side and limitations on the export of rare earths on the Chinese side.”

LISBON — Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission should continue to enforce its digital rules with an iron fist despite the outcry from U.S. officials and big tech moguls, co-chair of the Greens in the European Parliament Bas Eickhout told POLITICO. As Green politicians from across Europe gather in the Portuguese capital for their annual congress, U.S. top officials are blasting the EU for imposing a penalty on social media platform X for breaching its transparency obligations under the EU’s Digital Services Act, the bloc’s content moderation rule book. “They should just implement the law, which means they need to be tougher,” Eickhout told POLITICO on the sidelines of the event. He argued that the fine of €120 million is “nothing” for billionaire Elon Musk and that the EU executive should go further. The Commission needs to “make clear that we should be proud of our policies … we are the only ones fighting American Big Tech,” he said, adding that tech companies are “killing freedom of speech in Europe.” The Greens have in the past denounced Meta and X over their content moderation policies, arguing these platforms amplify “disinformation” and “extremism” and interfere in European electoral processes. Meta and X did not reply to a request for comment by the time of publication. Meta has “introduced changes to our content reporting options, appeals process and data access tools since the DSA came into force and are confident that these solutions match what is required under the law in the EU,” a Meta spokesperson said at the end of October. Tech mogul Musk said his response to the penalty would target the EU officials who imposed it. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the fine is “an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments,” and accused the move of “censorship.” “It’s not good when our former allies in Washington are now working hand in glove with Big Tech,” blasted European Green Party chair Ciarán Cuffe at the opening of the congress in Lisbon. Eickhout, whose party GreenLeft-Labor alliance is in negotiations to enter government in the Netherlands, said “we should pick on this battle and stand strong.” The Commission’s decision to fine X under the EU’s Digital Services Act is over transparency concerns. The Commission said the design of X’s blue checkmark is “deceptive,” after it was changed from user verification into a paid feature. The EU’s executive also said X’s advertising library lacks transparency and that it fails to provide access to public data for researchers as required by the law.  Eickhout lamented that European governments are slow in condemning the U.S. moves against the EU, and argued that with its recent national security strategy, the Americans have made clear their objective is to divide Europe from within by fueling far-right parties. “Some of the leaders like [French President Emmanuel] Macron are still desperately trying to say that that the United States are our ally,” Eickhout said. “I want to see urgency on how Europe is going to take its own path and not rely on the U.S. anymore, because it’s clear we cannot.”

French President Emmanuel Macron stressed the need for “unity” between Europe and the United States on Ukraine when asked about reports that he said Washington could be about to “betray” Kyiv in a private call with European leaders.  “I’ve seen all the rumors in the last few days,” Macron told reporters on a trip to Chengdu alongside Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “Unity between Americans and Europeans on the Ukrainian issue is essential … We need to work together. We must work together.” Macron was responding to questions about an alleged leaked transcript obtained by Der Spiegel of a call on Monday between Macron and other European leaders. The German magazine reported that the French president warned of “a great danger” for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid U.S.-brokered peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.   When asked about the story, an Elysée official, granted anonymity to adhere to standard professional protocol in France, stressed Thursday that Macron’s office released its own summary of the exchange “in which this word [betray] does not figure.” Macron struck a more sanguine note on Friday, saying Washington was a welcome partner in the ongoing peace talks and that Europe and the U.S. “must not give in to any spirit of division” on Ukraine.  “We welcome and support the peace efforts made by the United States of America,” he added. “The United States of America needs Europeans to lead its peace efforts because this is happening on the European continent.” Monday’s call took place after the Trump administration circulated a 28-point peace plan — reportedly drafted with input from the Kremlin, along with Washington envoys Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner — that was criticized by Ukraine and European allies for being too favorable to Russia.  Subsequent talks in Geneva, attended by European, Ukrainian and American officials, yielded an updated 19-point plan, which Russia has yet to agree to. 

French President Emmanuel Macron warned the U.S. could be about to “betray” Ukraine, according to a leaked transcript of a call between European leaders strategizing about how to protect Kyiv.   The details of the phone call — which took place Monday and involved Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and others — were published by German newspaper Der Spiegel and saw the leaders discussing U.S.-led peace negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow.   “There is a possibility that the U.S. will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Macron said, according to Spiegel, adding there was “a great danger” for Zelenskyy. The Élysée did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s request for comment. Spiegel reported the Élysée denied in a statement to the German outlet that Macron spoke of any betrayal. “The president did not use those words,” Macron’s office said, per Spiegel.  Merz chimed in that Zelenskyy had to be “extremely careful in the coming days.”  “They are playing games, both with you and with us,” Merz said, seemingly referring to Washington’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — the son-in-law of American President Donald Trump — who spent five hours locked in talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Merz’s spokesperson Stefan Kornelius told POLITICO: “As a matter of principle, I do not confirm or comment on snippets of conversation.”  Finland’s Stubb seemed to agree with Merz, according to the transcript. “We cannot leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys,” he said, apparently referring to Witkoff and Kushner, which attracted agreement from Rutte.  “I agree with Alexander — we must protect Volodymyr [Zelenskyy],” the NATO chief said. NATO declined to comment when reached by POLITICO. The call took place after the Trump administration circulated a 28-point peace plan — reportedly drafted by the Kremlin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, Witkoff and Kushner — that was criticized by Ukraine and European allies for being too favorable to Russia, and triggered frenzied negotiations in Geneva.  Those subsequent talks, attended by European, Ukrainian and American officials, yielded an updated 19-point plan, which Russia has yet to agree to. Moscow has not backed down from its maximalist demands, namely that Kyiv give up vast swathes of unoccupied territory in its east, limit the size of its military and hold new elections. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and European Council President António Costa also participated in Monday’s call, according to Spiegel. The call also saw the issue of Russia’s frozen assets discussed, Spiegel reported, with some leaders insisting that seizing Moscow’s billions to fund a massive tranche of financial and military aid for Ukraine was a matter for the EU to decide, not the U.S. Victor Jack and Joshua Berlinger contributed reporting.

PARIS — Two polar opposite personalities from France’s fractured left are fighting to emerge as the candidate to stop the dominant far right under Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella from winning the presidency in 2027. It’s still about 17 months until an election that threatens to upend the European Union, but a very public battle is already raging between the old-school radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the polished pro-NATO more center-leaning Raphaël Glucksmann. It’s a bruising clash, and several observers tracking the presidential race predict the depth of animosity between the two men could further split the left — sapping the possibility of victory in 2027 — rather than establishing a consensus candidate for the crucial second round of the race for the Elysée. Unless one manages to completely overshadow the other, the left will be locked in a civil war for the coming year. “Past presidential elections have shown that two candidates can’t coexist on the left without causing trouble for each other,” said Erwan Lestrohan, research director at French polling institute Odoxa. The two men could hardly be more different. Mélenchon is a 74-year-old hardliner who has run for president three times, nearly making the runoff in 2022 with a campaign calling for hiking the minimum wage, lowering the retirement age to 60 and pulling out of NATO. Glucksmann, 46, is an MEP and staunch supporter of bolstering Europe’s military power. He is also open to billions of euros worth of spending cuts to bring France’s messy public finances into line and believes the country’s contentious pension system should be rebuilt. Given those ideological fault lines, the tone of the contest has unsurprisingly descended into mudslinging. On his preferred communication outlet — his blog — Mélenchon has described Glucksmann as a “fanatic warmonger” and “the darling child of media vacuity.” Punching back on social media and in interviews, Glucksmann has called Mélenchon “a phony patriot who prefers the Kremlin’s spin” and has framed their showdown as a struggle for “a vision of democracy,” accusing the leader of the hard-left France Unbowed party of rose-tinted views of authoritarian regimes in Moscow and Beijing. PERIL IN THE POLLS Over recent weeks, poll after poll has suggested the far right could well have to face a leftist in a run-off in the spring of 2027. “There’s a solid prospect of having a left-wing candidate make the second round,” Lestrohan said. For Mélenchon or Glucksmann, reaching the run-off would be a huge moment. They would have a shot not only at taking the Elysée, but also at shaping the future of the French left — joining the likes of Jean Jaurès and François Mitterrand in the country’s pantheon of progressive icons. More likely for now, however, is the prospect of becoming the first presidential candidate in modern French history to lose to the far right. Neither looks on course to win a second round against the National Rally’s Bardella — seen as a probable runner because of a ban on Le Pen. . Mélenchon is a 74-year-old hardliner who has run for president three times, nearly making the runoff in 2022. | Jerome Gilles/Getty Images A year and a half ahead of the vote, Glucksmann appears to be a stronger second-round candidate. According to an Odoxa poll released last week he is seen as losing by a margin of 42 percent to 58 percent to Bardella, while Mélenchon is seen as losing in a 26 percent to 74 percent landslide. All prospective candidates from the center-right coalition currently in power look set to be wiped out in the first round, except for Édouard Philippe — President Emmanuel Macron’s first prime minister after his 2017 election — though his polling numbers have steadily declined over the past year. SUBSTANCE AND STRATEGY With radically different views come radically different strategies. Glucksmann is convinced the left can win by luring back moderates and former Socialists who ditched the party for Macron’s centrist movement in 2017. An Ipsos survey showed that Glucksmann managed to attract 17 percent of voters who had previously voted for Macron when he led a joint list with the center-left Socialist Party and finished a convincing third in the last European election in 2024. Mélenchon, meanwhile, believes the decisive votes lie in working-class urban areas where turnout is low, but where those who do cast ballots have rallied behind him en masse over the last several electoral cycles. True to his slow-and-steady philosophy — Mélenchon likes to call himself an “electoral turtle” and keeps figurines of the hard-shelled reptile in his office — he has increased his vote share in each Elysée run despite a cantankerous temper. Both approaches have their merits and shortcomings.  Mélenchon could be dragged down by his image as a divisive firebrand, Lestrohan said. “As for Raphaël Glucksmann, his vulnerability stems more from the fact that he is still relatively unknown, and that we do not yet know how capable he is of campaigning, promoting ideas, and, above all, asserting himself in the face of opposition,” said Lestrohan. That concern about Glucksmann has already begun to spread within the Socialist Party’s ranks. While the party backed the MEP in the last two European races, the idea of promoting a candidate from outside their party — Glucksmann leads his own political platform, Place Publique — has drawn skepticism from some Socialists. After a weeks-long media absence, Glucksmann reemerged into the public eye last month when he faced off in a debate with far-right former presidential candidate Éric Zemmour. Glucksmann’s performance was widely viewed as a disappointment — including by Glucksmann himself, who acknowledged he “could have done better.” Raphael Glucksmann, 46, is an MEP and staunch supporter of bolstering Europe’s military power. | Laurent Coust/Getty Images “There’s a scenario in which this all turns into a nightmare,” a Socialist adviser opposed to Glucksmann’s candidacy, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO. “Glucksmann will get crushed by a political beast like Mélenchon. But there’s no chance Mélenchon can come out ahead against Bardella.” US VS. THEM Indeed, although Mélenchon enjoys the support of a loyal core, he garners the highest share of negative opinions of any French politician — even more than Macron — and is vilified by opponents, who accuse him of pushing antisemitic tropes in the context of his pro-Palestinian rhetoric and of defending extremist views. High-ranking members of Mélenchon’s France Unbowed have brushed off his weakness in recent polls, insisting their electorate only tends to mobilize later in campaigns and that the National Rally tends to lose support when the prospect of a far-right victory becomes concrete. “It is impossible to predict what will happen in the second round. Voters never want to decide on scenarios that do not suit them,” said France Unbowed lawmaker and national coordinator Manuel Bompard. “Only when the choice becomes mandatory” do actual voting intentions emerge, he added. Bompard and other party leaders point to last summer’s snap general election in France, which the National Rally was expected to win before finishing an underwhelming third as voters mobilized across party lines to block its path. Back in January 2012, when he launched his first presidential bid, Mélenchon predicted that “in the end, it’ll be between us and them,” with “them” being the far right. Danièle Obono, a prominent France Unbowed lawmaker, said that prophecy still looked likely to come true. “There’s an opposition between our left and the far right … it’s class warfare expressed through the ballot box. This is a moment when the people want a major shake-up that leaves space for either us [the hard left] or them [the far right],” Obono said. Glucksmann’s troops beg to differ. After the release of last week’s poll showing Bardella winning the presidential election, Aurélien Rousseau, a Place Publique lawmaker, took to X. “We knew it, but now it’s clear politically: the RN can win the presidential election,” he said. “On the left, the line held by [Glucksmann] is currently the only one capable of leading the fight.”