BRUSSELS — The European Commission has done everything in its power to
accommodate the concerns of member countries over the EU’s trade deal with the
Latin American Mercosur bloc and get it over the finish line, Trade Commissioner
Maroš Šefčovič told POLITICO.
“I hope we will pass the test this week because we really went to unprecedented
lengths to address the concerns which have been presented to us,” Šefčovič said
in an interview on Monday.
“Now it’s a matter of credibility, and it’s a matter of being strategic,” he
stressed, explaining that the huge trade deal is vital for the European Union at
a time of increasingly assertive behavior by China and the United States.
“Mercosur very much reflects our ambition to play a strategic role in trade, to
confirm that we are the biggest trader on this planet.”
The commissioner’s remarks come as time is running short to hold a vote among
member countries that would allow Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to
fly to Brazil on Dec. 20 for a signing ceremony with the Mercosur countries —
Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
“The last miles are always the most difficult,” Šefčovič added. “But I really
hope that we can do it this week because I understand the anxiety on the side of
our Latin American partners.”
The vote in the Council of the EU, the bloc’s intergovernmental branch, has
still to be scheduled.
To pass, it would need to win the support of a qualified majority of 15 member
countries representing 65 percent of the bloc’s population. It’s not clear
whether France — the EU country most strongly opposed to the deal — can muster a
blocking minority.
If Paris loses, it would be the first time the EU has concluded a big trade deal
against the wishes of a major founding member.
France, on Sunday evening, called for the vote to be postponed, widening a rift
within the bloc over the controversial pact that has been under negotiation for
more than 25 years.
Several pro-deal countries warn that the holdup risks killing the trade deal,
concerned that further stalling it could embolden opposition in the European
Parliament or complicate next steps when Paraguay, which is skeptical toward the
agreement, takes over the presidency of the Mercosur bloc from current holder
Brazil.
Asked whether Brussels had a Plan B if the vote does not take place on time,
Šefčovič declined to speculate. He instead put the focus on a separate vote on
Tuesday in the European Parliament on additional farm market safeguards proposed
by the Commission to address French concerns.
“There are still expectations on how much we can advance with some of the
measures which are not yet approved, particularly in the European Parliament,”
he stressed.
“If you look at the safeguard regulation, we never did anything like this
before. It’s the first [time] ever. It’s, I would say, very, very far
reaching.”
Tag - Mercosur
BRUSSELS — The French government called on Sunday to postpone a crucial vote by
countries on the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, widening a rift within the bloc
over the controversial pact.
“France is asking for the December deadlines to be pushed back so we can keep
working and get the legitimate protections our European agriculture needs,” the
office of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said Sunday evening.
The statement confirmed a POLITICO report on Thursday that Paris was pushing for
a delay. It comes within sight of the finish line for the European Union to
finally close the agreement with Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay that
has been in negotiations for over 25 years and would create a common market of
over 700 million people.
Denmark, which holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, has vowed to hold
the vote in time for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to fly
to Brazil on Dec. 20 to sign the deal.
Several countries warn that the holdup risks ultimately killing the trade deal,
concerned that further stalling it could embolden opposition in the European
Parliament or complicate next steps when Paraguay, which is skeptical toward the
agreement, takes over the presidency of the Mercosur bloc from current holder
Brazil.
Pro-deal countries, including Germany, Sweden and Spain, argue that France’s
concerns have already been accommodated, pointing to proposed additional
safeguards designed to protect European farmers in the event of a surge in Latin
American beef or poultry imports.
But with those safeguards still not finalized, France says it still can’t back
the deal, wary that it could enrage the country’s politically powerful farming
community.
Brussels also announced this month it was planning to strengthen its border
controls on food, animal and plant imports.
“These advances are still incomplete and must be finalized and implemented in an
operational, robust and effective manner in order to produce and appreciate
their full effects,” Lecornu’s office said.
Denmark, which holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, has vowed to hold
the vote in time for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to fly
to Brazil on Dec. 20 to sign the deal. | Wagner Meier/Getty Images
Despite Denmark’s resolve to hold the vote in time, final talks among EU member
countries may not be wrapped up before a summit of European leaders on Thursday
and Friday this week. A big farmers’ protest is planned in Brussels on Thursday.
The Commission declined to comment.
BRUSSELS — Denmark is holding the line and pressing ahead with plans to schedule
a crucial vote of EU ambassadors on the EU-Mercosur trade deal next week, in a
tug-of-war splitting countries across the bloc.
“In the planning of the Danish presidency, the intention is to have the vote on
the Mercosur agreement next week to enable the Commission President to sign the
agreement in Brazil on Dec. 20,” an official with the Danish presidency of the
Council of the EU told POLITICO.
This is the first official confirmation from Copenhagen that it will go ahead
with scheduling the vote over the deal with the Latin American countries in the
coming days, despite warnings from France, Poland and Italy that the texts as
they stand would not garner their support.
This risks leaving the Danish presidency of the Council short of the
supermajority needed to get the deal over the line. Under EU rules, this would
require the support of a “qualified” majority of EU member countries — meaning
15 of the bloc’s 27 members representing 65 percent of its population.
The outcome of the vote will determine whether European Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen can fly, as is now planned, to Brazil on Dec. 20 for a
signing ceremony with her Mercosur counterparts.
France however has been playing for time in an effort to delay its approval of
the accord, which has been more than 25 years in the making — a strategy several
diplomats warn could ultimately kill the trade deal.
They cite fears that further stalling could embolden opposition in the European
Parliament or complicate the next steps when Paraguay, which is more skeptical
of the agreement, takes over the presidency of the Mercosur bloc.
“If we can’t agree on Mercosur, we don’t need to talk about European sovereignty
anymore. We will make ourselves geopolitically irrelevant,” said a senior EU
diplomat.
European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, are expected to
descend on Brussels on Thursday for a high-stakes EU summit. While not formally
on the agenda, the trade deal with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay is
expected to loom large. A farmers demonstration is also expected in Brussels on
the same day.
Countries backing the deal, including Germany and Sweden, argue that France has
already been accommodated, pointing to proposed additional safeguards designed
to protect European farmers in the event of a surge in Latin American beef or
poultry imports.
The instrument, which still requires validation by EU institutions, was a
proposal from the Commission to placate Poland and France, whose influential
farming constituencies worry they would be undercut by Latin American beef or
poultry.
The texts submitted for the upcoming vote were published last week and include a
temporary strengthened safeguard, committing to closely monitor market
disruptions — one of the key conditions for Paris to back the deal.
BRUSSELS — France is playing for time over a crucial vote on the EU’s trade mega
deal with the Latin American Mercosur bloc, three EU diplomats told POLITICO, in
a strategy that one warned could kill the long-awaited accord.
With U.S. President Donald Trump having slammed Europe as “weak” and “decaying,”
the European Commission is racing to prove otherwise — by rushing before
Christmas to lock in the trade deal with Mercosur, which groups Argentina,
Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Now, just over a week before Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hopes to
fly to Brazil for a signing ceremony, France is raising the alarm that its
longstanding demands haven’t been met. Paris warns it won’t be able to support
the pact in a looming vote by member countries, suggesting it be held in January
instead, according to the diplomats.
That could leave the Danish presidency of the Council short of the supermajority
needed to get the deal over the line. Under EU rules this would require the
support of a “qualified” majority of EU member countries — meaning 15 of the
bloc’s 27 member countries representing 65 percent of its population.
The French government reiterated on Thursday that it wasn’t satisfied with the
agreement and that its final decision will depend on the progress made toward
its demands.
“France is a big agricultural power, we defend our agricultural interests very
firmly in these negotiations … We continue working on this agreement, which is
not acceptable as it stands on the day I am speaking to you,” Foreign Ministry
spokesperson Pascal Confavreux told POLITICO.
Confavreux declined to say when asked whether France was pushing to delay the
vote to January.
A senior EU diplomat warned that the long-awaited trade deal — which has been a
quarter century in the making and would create a common market of over 700
million people — would not survive another delay.
“If [von der Leyen] does not sign it, if we do not allow her to sign it on the
20th, it’s dead,” said the diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss the
sensitive matter. “And then we really need to think about whether that’s where
we want to be in the world.”
COALITION OF THE UNWILLING
Ireland, which remains one of the more skeptical countries due to its large
farming constituency, said Thursday it was “working with like-minded countries”
on its position on the agreement — referring to a so-called coalition of the
unwilling that has varied over time and included countries like Poland and
Austria.
“The key question now is whether a blocking minority still exists. And I think
the jury is still a little out on that,” said Deputy Prime Minister Simon
Harris.
The stalling tactics will infuriate pro-Mercosur nations led by Germany, which
argue that the French have already been accommodated, including by the proposal
of additional safeguards to protect European farmers in case Latin American beef
or poultry flood EU markets.
Paris is adamant that its three core conditions — the inclusion of “mirror
clauses,” stronger sanitary controls, and the agricultural safeguards — have
still not been met.
A separate plenary vote still needs to be held in the European Parliament this
coming Tuesday on the farm safeguards. The chamber’s trade committee last week
approved compromise amendments to tighten the protections. Yet a late flood of
new amendments could complicate matters just two days before EU leaders are due
to hold their year-end summit in Brussels.
A diplomat from one Mercosur country said the signing date was still on: “We are
still talking about Dec. 20.”
“Nobody has abandoned that yet,” said the diplomat, who was also granted
anonymity to discuss the extremely sensitive matter.
Bloomberg first reported on the delay.
Giovanna Faggionato and Kathryn Carlson contributed to this report.
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Brussels was jolted this week by dawn raids and an alleged fraud probe involving
current and former senior EU diplomats.
Host Sarah Wheaton speaks with Zoya Sheftalovich — a longtime Brussels Playbook
editor who has just returned from Australia to begin her new role as POLITICO’s
chief EU correspondent — and with Max Griera, our European Parliament reporter,
to unpack what we know so far, what’s at stake for Ursula von der Leyen, and
where the investigation may head next.
Then, with Zoya staying in the studio, we’re joined by Senior Climate
Correspondent Karl Mathiesen, Trade and Competition Editor Doug Busvine and
Defense Editor Jan Cienski to take stock of the Commission’s first year — marked
by this very bumpy week. We look at competitiveness, climate, defense and the
fast-shifting global landscape — and our panel delivers its score for von der
Leyen’s team.
BRUSSELS — A jolt of optimism that Brussels and the Latin American countries of
Mercosur can finally seal their mammoth trade deal this year has given way to
trepidation that everything could fall apart just before the finish line.
The biggest hurdle that remains is approving a workaround to protect European
farm markets in the event of a sudden influx of produce from the Mercosur bloc,
which groups Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
The safeguards, calibrated in consultation with Paris and presented in early
October, seemed enough at first to reassure skeptical politicians and farmers in
France and Poland.
But the mood in the European Parliament and in some capitals has turned
volatile.
And with the clock ticking down to a tentative Dec. 20 date for European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to fly to Brazil for a formal signing
ceremony, the path to that successful outcome is narrowing.
Brazil’s ambassador to the EU, Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva, is bullish that
the agreement, which has been 25 years in the making and would create a
free-trade area spanning nearly 800 million people, can still be done.
“What will happen will be exactly what happened with other agreements that the
EU negotiated with other countries: In the beginning there was a lot of
backlash, but then suddenly people discovered that it was a mutual benefit
equation,” da Costa e Silva said at an event in Brussels last week.
To close the deal in time, everything needs to go right. European lawmakers must
first approve the additional safeguards, after which the Council, the
intergovernmental branch of the EU, then needs to sign off on the broader deal.
Finally, the Commission must sign it.
PARLIAMENT UNCHAINED
The Parliament has witnessed chaotic scenes in recent days as pro-Mercosur
lawmakers tried, and failed, to fast-track a vote to approve the safeguards.
Although seemingly only a technical measure, the safeguard text is a crucial
political condition for President Emmanuel Macron of France — the EU’s
second-largest country — to back the overall agreement.
The Council has concluded its work on the safeguards, and is waiting for the
Parliament to move forward.
The text will now tentatively be put to a committee vote in the Parliament on
Dec. 8, followed by a Dec. 16 vote in the plenary — just four days before the
planned signing ceremony.
Although seemingly only a technical measure, the safeguard text is a crucial
political condition for President Emmanuel Macron of France. | Thierry
Nectoux/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images
“We have been negotiating this agreement for 25 years and now we are being told
that we must act quickly,” said Céline Imart, a French MEP from the European
People’s Party group and a farmer herself.
Adding to the headaches, over 140 lawmakers have called for a resolution seeking
a legal opinion from the Court of Justice of the European Union on whether the
overall deal is compatible with the European treaties.
That would paralyze the Parliament’s approval of the safeguards until the court
— known for its lengthy procedures — rules on the issue.
Parliament President Roberta Metsola rejected the request on the grounds that
the Council had not yet weighed in on the agreement. Those lawmakers have
criticized the decision and are now pushing for further explanations from the
Parliament’s own legal service on whether Metsola overstepped her powers.
THE HOME STRETCH
With U.S. President Donald Trump breathing down Europe’s neck, fence-sitters
like the Netherlands and Italy have come to terms with the fact that the deal
would offer a welcome boost for the bloc’s struggling exporters.
Even Macron struck a conciliatory tone after meeting Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula
da Silva in early November.
Still, in the Council, where a qualified majority of EU countries is needed to
approve the deal, the battle is not yet won.
Poland — one of the countries Brussels had hoped to soothe with the new
safeguard rules — this week restated its opposition. “Our position is clearly
defined: We will vote against, despite the agreement on safeguards that has been
reached,” Michal Baranowski, Poland’s undersecretary of state in the Ministry of
Economic Development, said Monday.
Confusion at the highest level hasn’t helped either.
At the last European leaders’ summit in October, German Chancellor Friedrich
Merz prematurely announced that EU leaders had unanimously backed the
contentious deal.
That forced European Council President António Costa to clarify that he had
merely sought to assess next steps with European leaders. France followed up by
seeking fresh reassurances that the European market would be protected from
agricultural products that don’t meet the bloc’s standards.
If the approval process hasn’t already gone off track by then, the EU leaders’
summit on Dec. 18-19 in Brussels could still deliver some last-minute drama
before von der Leyen can catch that flight to Brazil.
“Ursula von der Leyen already has her tickets to Brazil. It is up to us to
ensure that she only goes there for a holiday,” added Imart, the French MEP.
BELÉM, Brazil — The European Union is under pressure to defend its new carbon
tariff scheme as trade tensions swamp this year’s global climate talks.
Long-simmering diplomatic frictions over the upcoming levy are reaching boiling
point in the tropical heat of Belém, with some developing countries pushing for
the COP30 conference to effectively condemn the bloc’s green trade measures as
protectionist.
Trade has taken center stage at this summit, alongside traditional sticking
points such as finance, as exporting countries fret over the carbon levy’s
looming enforcement on Jan. 1 —together with other new EU policies seeking to
combat global deforestation or methane pollution, as well as tariffs on
climate-relevant products such as Chinese electric vehicles.
“All parties need to cooperate to avoid unilateral measures that might damage
international collaboration,” Liu Zhenmin, China’s climate envoy, told POLITICO
on Monday. “The world needs a very climate-friendly environment for investment.”
While he did not specifically mention the EU, diplomats and civil society
observers say there is no question that trade discussions at COP30 have largely
targeted the bloc’s measures, particularly the levy, officially known as the
carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).
To resolve the issue, the Brazilian hosts of this year’s conference on Tuesday
put forward a number of suggestions that includes an option to regularly assess
measures such as CBAM at United Nations climate talks — anathema to the EU,
which is putting up a fight.
EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said at a press conference on Monday he was
“more than happy” to discuss CBAM, but would “not be lured into the suggestion”
that the measure is aimed at restricting trade.
European negotiators in Belém said they fiercely reject any attempt at using
U.N. climate talks to settle trade disputes, and expressed discomfort at being
singled out.
With an eye on China’s decision to curb exports of raw materials, they have also
suggested that doing so would not be in the interest of other countries that
have put up barriers on goods essential to the global energy transition.
“This is a legitimate question for partners to ask each other,” a French
negotiator said of trade concerns. “But there are also other questions about
which trade mechanisms are blocking or slowing down the transition. For example,
wouldn’t a more open market for critical minerals be more effective in
developing a transition away from fossil fuels?”
Perhaps for that reason, China has been more careful than India, Saudi Arabia
and African countries in pushing hard on trade in the negotiation rooms, said
two European diplomats and one civil society observer, who were granted
anonymity to discuss diplomatic issues.
“I don’t think that linking trade with climate is a good idea. That’s why we are
encouraging trade issues [to] be addressed in trade channels,” said Liu, the
Chinese envoy. “We are encouraging the EU to resolve their concerns and their
problems with their respective partners bilaterally.”
But Liu did express concern that as a result of green trade measures, “the cost
for cooperation for the energy transition might be driven up.” One European
diplomat and one civil society observer also said Beijing had raised the EU’s
tariffs on Chinese EVs at COP30.
THE BRUSSELS EFFECT, CLIMATE EDITION
The EU maintains that CBAM is a climate measure, not a trade tool.
“In order to engage in this process of decarbonisation, you also have to make
sure that an open market isn’t driving the deindustrialization of your own
economy. You have to make sure that the terms of trade around clean tech and
clean energy are free but also fair,” Jake Werksman, the EU’s chief negotiator,
said last week at a press conference.
Heavy-polluting manufacturers based in the EU, such as steel and cement
factories, have to pay around €80 for every ton of carbon they emit. That’s
meant to encourage a switch to climate-friendly methods of production, but
raises the risk that EU companies will be outcompeted by dirtier, cheaper
products from elsewhere.
To balance these competition concerns, the EU’s CBAM will gradually impose a fee
on certain goods from countries where companies don’t face similar carbon costs,
starting on Jan. 1 next year.
But the EU also sees CBAM as a tool to press other countries to set up a carbon
price.
The bloc prides itself on being able to leverage its economic weight into global
regulatory power, sometimes dubbed the “Brussels effect.” The levy is only one
of several green measures targeting trading partners, with other policies
seeking to stop imports of goods linked to deforestation or high methane
emissions.
This effort has pushed other countries toward stepping up climate action. Turkey
has cited CBAM as a key reason for introducing legislation to cut emissions,
while a provision in the Mercosur trade agreement effectively prevents Argentina
from exiting the Paris Agreement.
Still, that approach doesn’t sit well with everyone.
“We remain deeply concerned by the growing use of unilateral, manipulated trade
measures which impose undue burdens … climate ambition must be built on
partnership, not protectionism,” Mohammad Navid Safiullah, an official at
Bangladesh’s climate ministry, told a press conference this week.
“There’s a lot of pressure on the EU because it added a lot of new [policies]
affecting trade in past years. Deforestation, CBAM, all very harsh measures. We
feel a conversation needs to be had,” said one Latin American negotiator, while
cautioning that dispute resolution should remain a matter for the World Trade
Organization, not the U.N. climate body.
The EU says it’s willing to have that conversation — up to a point.
“We recognize this challenge exists, that this response to climate change … does
produce friction in the trading system. And we need to address these frictions,”
Werksman said. “What we aren’t prepared to create is some kind of proxy dispute
settlement system.”
TRADE TACTICS
European negotiators also complain that while some countries have voiced
legitimate concerns, some of those who have brought up CBAM at COP30 are doing
so in bad faith.
The Like-Minded Developing Countries, a negotiating bloc that includes India and
China, as well as the Arab Group led by Saudi Arabia are using trade as a
“tactical token” to gain leverage in the broader negotiations in Belém, said one
European diplomat.
The European diplomat and the Latin American negotiator also said Saudi Arabia
has sought to inject the trade dispute into unrelated negotiations to block
progress. Riyadh often plays spoiler at climate talks to prevent any agreements
that might affect its lucrative fossil fuel exports.
“We do see some countries using this issue as a bit of a bargaining chip to seek
concessions elsewhere in the negotiations. Some of the countries complaining
about CBAM actually won’t face a significant economic impact” from the levy,
said Ellie Belton, a senior advisor at think tank E3G who sat in on last week’s
trade negotiations in Belém.
Still, she said, “there is more that the EU can do to demonstrate that it is
open to testing new approaches and finding different ways to collaborate with
developing countries.”
While the EU may be feeling the heat, Belton thinks the trade talks at COP are
showing promise. COP30 host Brazil, which in past years has also taken issue
with CBAM, has sought to play a more constructive role, setting up a discussion
forum on trade and climate.
With more countries developing measures similar to the EU’s — the United Kingdom
is introducing a CBAM in 2027 — such spaces are sorely needed, Belton said.
“We need to start having real conversations about what that means in terms of
practical outcomes when we have different CBAMs operating across different
jurisdictions — the trade disruptions this will cause and the climate impact
that could have in terms of the cost it places on developing countries that are
exporting to those markets,” she said.
Some Europeans, at least, agree.
“All countries that introduce a relevant carbon price will realize that sooner
or later they will have to protect their industries from those that don’t have
such price standards,” Jochen Flasbarth, Germany’s state secretary for the
environment, told reporters last week.
“I believe this conflict will ultimately only be resolved when we agree on
international standards … a discussion that the Brazilians have started here,”
he said.
Zack Colman contributed reporting.
BRUSSELS — The EU Parliament is set to fast-track a vote on one of the final
hurdles in front of the trade agreement with the Latin American Mercosur bloc,
three parliament officials told POLITICO.
The rushed timeline comes as lawmakers come under massive political pressure to
finalize legislative work over the additional instrument in time for European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to fly to Brazil on Dec. 20 to
sign the long-awaited accord.
The “cows for cars” deal, which has been in the works for a quarter century,
would create a free-trade area spanning nearly 800 million people. In Europe,
resistance to the accord has melted under pressure from U.S. President Donald
Trump’s tariff offensive — along with the pledge from Brussels to implement
safeguards to protect European farmers from cheaper South American competition.
Once the Parliament’s trade committee approves proposed safeguards, which could
happen by Monday, the plenary will vote on the issue as soon as Tuesday on
whether to submit them to an urgent procedure. And if a majority of lawmakers
approve the accelerated procedure, the safeguards are expected to be put to a
vote on Thursday, the officials explained, on condition of anonymity
Under the safeguards, proposed forward in October, the European Commission would
commit to closely monitor imports of sensitive farm products such as beef,
poultry and sugar. This was perceived as an olive branch to assuage concerns
from countries skeptical towards the massive trade deal, such as France and
Poland.
The safeguards are set to be approved on Wednesday by the Council of the EU.
After that, EU institutions would need to rubber-stamp legislative work on the
instrument, which was a key condition for France and others to support the
overall agreement at a vote in the coming days.
In another crucial decision, the Conference of Presidents is expected Wednesday
to reject a motion for a resolution requesting a court opinion on the
EU-Mercosur trade agreement.
A large group of European lawmakers — counting between 140 and 150 MEPs —
proposed a motion last week to ask the Court of Justice of the European Union to
assess whether the accord with the Mercosur trade bloc is compatible with the
European treaties.
The Conference of Presidents, chaired by Roberta Metsola of the European
People’s Party and composed of all political group leaders, will reject the
motion on the grounds that it’s not up to the Parliament to weigh on the texts
yet, one of the officials said, as the Council of the EU still needs to vote on
the pact.
The motion, if it had gone through, would have derailed efforts to get the
long-awaited trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay over the
finish line in time for the deal to be signed this year.
The text of the motion, supported by lawmakers from the EPP, Socialists and
Democrats, Renew, the Greens and The Left group, seeks a legal opinion on
a rebalancing mechanism baked into the deal. This provision, a first in EU trade
agreements, foresees that either party can seek redress if it considers the
other party has introduced a measure that “nullifies or substantially impairs”
the benefits of the deal.
This story has been updated.
BRUSSELS — A large group of European lawmakers is joining forces in a bid to
derail efforts to get a long-awaited trade deal with Latin American countries
over the finish line.
The group — counting more than 100 MEPs — plans to propose a motion on Friday
calling for a resolution to ask the Court of Justice of the EU to assess
whether the accord with the Mercosur trade bloc is compatible with the European
treaties.
Should the resolution be adopted at the European Parliament’s next plenary
session, from Nov. 24 to 27, it risks thwarting the European Commission’s bid to
sign the deal before Christmas to create one of the largest free-trade areas in
the world. Mercosur groups Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
The text would show that “it is still possible to work constructively across our
groups,” said Belgian Green MEP Saskia Bricmont.
“Beyond the sometimes divergent views on the pros and cons of the agreement with
Mercosur, we must ensure that it is fully compatible with our European
treaties,” she told POLITICO.
If a majority of lawmakers supports the resolution, the Parliament would then
have to wait until the court issues its opinion before it can vote to approve
the agreement. That would risk delaying the process as judicial proceedings in
Luxembourg are typically lengthy.
Should the Court issue an opinion against the legality of the agreement, this
would put the EU executive in an impossible spot, given how divisive the issue
is across the bloc. While it might not crash the whole deal, any required
amendments could easily delay the process by a year.
The lawmakers — spanning the EPP, S&D, Renew, the Greens and the Left group —
want the Court of Justice to issue an opinion on a rebalancing mechanism baked
into the deal. This provision, a first in EU trade agreements, foresees that
either party can seek redress in the form of tariffs or quotas if they consider
the other party has introduced a measure that “nullifies or substantially
impairs” the benefits of the deal.
The MEPs also want the court to rule on the legal basis for splitting the deal’s
trade and partnership sections. Such splits have been introduced to ensure that
the main trade provisions can go through a streamlined ratification process that
only requires the approval of the European Parliament — but not national or
regional parliaments.
In addition, the lawmakers want the court to review whether the EU-Mercosur deal
is compatible with the EU’s right to apply the so-called precautionary
principle, fearing that it could weaken or override this principle when the EU
tries to act on environmental or health risks. The principle foresees preventive
action in the face of foreseeable environmental harms.
The signatories mostly come from countries that have traditionally opposed the
behemoth deal — such as Poland, France, Belgium and Ireland.
The EPP, the biggest group in the European Parliament, is represented by its
Polish and French members, such as Krzysztof Hetman, Marta Wcisło and
François-Xavier Bellamy, among others. Other MEPs include Renew’s Pascal Canfin
and S&D’s Raphaël Glucksmann, as well as the Greens’ Majdouline Sbaï.
The Parliament is also set to decide next week which of the trade and
agriculture committees will lead work on the Commission’s proposal to introduce
safeguards in case a surge of imports of sensitive agricultural produce hurts
European markets.
Camille Gijs and Antonia Zimmermann reported from Brussels, and Judith Chetrit
from Paris. Max Griera Andreu and Koen Verhelst contributed to this report.
BRUSSELS — Heard the one about the 12-and-half-hour meeting of 27 national
leaders that succeeded in agreeing very little apart from coming up with quite a
lot of “let’s decide in a couple of months” or “let’s just all agree on language
that means absolutely nothing but looks like we’re united” or “let’s at least
celebrate that we got through this packed agenda without having to come back on
Friday”?
No? Well let us enlighten you.
And if that makes you question how we’ve managed to squeeze 29 things out of
this, well let’s just say one of these is about badly functioning vending
machines…
1 . STRAIGHT OUT OF THE BOX WITH A QUICK WIN ON SANCTIONS …
The day was off to a flying start when Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico lifted
his veto over the latest raft of Russia sanctions on the eve of the summit —
allowing the package to get formally signed off at 8 a.m. before leaders even
started talking.
Fico rolled over after claiming to achieve what he set out to do: clinch support
for Slovakia’s car industry. He found an unusual ally in German Chancellor
Friedrich Merz who he met separately to discuss the impact of climate targets on
their countries’ automotive sectors.
2. … BUT AGREEMENT ON FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS WAS LESS FORTHCOMING
There was a moment earlier in the week where the EU looked to be on the cusp of
a breakthrough on using Russian frozen assets to fund a €140 billion loan for
Ukraine. Belgium, the main holdout, appeared to be warming to the European
Commission’s daring idea to crack open the piggy bank.
But Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever stuck by his guns , saying he feared
taking the assets, which are held in a Brussels-based financial depository,
could trigger Moscow to take legal action.
3. BELGIUM DIDN’T MOVE ON ITS BIG THREE BIG DEMANDS
The Flemish right-winger’s prerequisites were threefold: the “full mutualization
of the risk,” guarantees that if the money has to paid back, “every member state
will chip in,” and for every other EU country that holds immobilized assets to
also seize them.
Leaders eventually agreed on that classic EU summit outcome: a fudge. They
tasked the European Commission to “present options” at the next European Council
— effectively deciding not to decide.
“Political will is clear, and the process will move forward,” said one EU
official. But it’s uncertain whether a deal can be brokered by the next summit,
currently set for December.
4. DE WEVER REJECTS THE ‘BAD BOY’ LABEL
After POLITICO ranked the Belgian leader among its list of “bad boys” likely to
disrupt Thursday’s summit (rightfully, might we add), he protested the branding.
“A bad boy! Me? … If you talk about the immobilized assets, we’re the very, very
best,” he said.
The day was off to a flying start when Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico lifted
his veto over the latest raft of Russia sanctions on the eve of the summit. |
Olivier Hoslet/EPA
5. URSULA VON DER LEYEN ALSO CONCEDED THEY’RE NOT QUITE THERE YET
The high-level talks “allowed us to identify points we need to clarify,” the
Commission president said tactfully.
“Nobody vetoed nothing today,” European Council President António Costa chimed
in. “The technical and legal aspects of Europe’s support need to be worked
upon.”
Translation in case you didn’t understand the double negative: The EU needs to
come up with a better plan to reassure Belgium — and fast.
6. UKRAINE: EVER THE OPTIMIST
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ― a guest of the summit ― told reporters
Russia must pay the price for its invasion, calling on the EU to follow through
with its frozen assets proposal, adding he thought the leaders were “close” to
an agreement.
“If Russia brought war to our land, they have to pay for this war,” he said.
7. AND ZELENSKYY IS STILL HOLDING OUT FOR TOMAHAWKS
“We will see,” was Zelenskyy’s message on the topic of acquiring the long-range
missiles from the U.S., which Donald Trump has so far ruled out selling to Kyiv.
“Each day brings something … maybe tomorrow we will have Tomahawks,” Zelenskyy
said. “I don’t know.”
8. UKRAINE WANTS GERMANY TO SEND MORE WEAPONS TOO
Merz held a meeting with Zelenskyy about “the situation in Washington and the
American plans that are now on the table,” a German official said, adding
Zelenskyy made “specific requests” to the chancellor about helping Ukraine with
its “defense capabilities.”
After the summit, the German leader said Berlin would review a proposal on how
German technologies could help to protect Ukrainian’s energy and water
infrastructure.
9. THUMBS UP TO DEFENSE ROADMAP!
EU leaders endorsed the Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030 presented last week by
the Commission, which aims to prepare member countries for war by 2030.
One of its main objectives is to fill EU capability gaps in nine areas: air and
missile defense, enablers, military mobility, artillery systems, AI and cyber,
missile and ammunition, drones and anti-drones, ground combat, and maritime. The
plan also mentions areas like defense readiness and the role of Ukraine, which
would be heavily armed and supported to become a “steel porcupine” able to deter
Russian aggression.
As leaders deliberated, a Russian fighter jet and a refueling aircraft briefly
crossed into Lithuanian airspace from the Kaliningrad region, underscoring the
need for the EU to protect its skies.
10. KYIV IS PROMISING TO BUY EUROPEAN — MOSTLY
Ukraine will prioritize domestic and European industry when spending cash from
the proposed reparation loan funded by Russia’s frozen assets, Zelenskyy told
leaders at the summit — but wants to be able to go across the pond when
necessary.
11. MUCH THE SAME FOR SPAIN
Spanish leader Pedro Sánchez said the country had committed to contributing cash
to a fund organized by NATO to buy weapons for Ukraine from the U.S. | Nicolas
Tucat/Getty Images
Spanish leader Pedro Sánchez said the country had committed to contributing cash
to a fund organized by NATO to buy weapons for Ukraine from the U.S.
“Today, most of the air defense components, such as Patriots or Tomahawks …
which Ukraine clearly needs, are only manufactured in the United States,” he
said. Madrid has been a thorn in Washington’s side over its lax defense
spending.
12. THERE WAS A MERCOSUR SURPRISE
Merz stunned trade watchers when he announced the leaders had backed a
controversial trade agreement with Latin American countries.
“We voted on it today: The Mercosur agreement can be ratified,” the German
chancellor told reporters, adding that he was “very happy” about that. “All 27
countries voted unanimously in favor,” Merz added on Mercosur. “It’s done.”
The remark sparked confusion amongst delegations, as the European Council
doesn’t usually vote on trade agreements — let alone one as controversial as the
mammoth agreement with the countries of the Latin American bloc of Mercosur,
which has been in negotiations for over 25 years.
One EU diplomat clarified that it’s because European Council President António
Costa sought confirmation from EU leaders that they would agree to take a stance
on the deal by the end of this year — and no formal vote was taken yet.
13. CLIMATE TALKS PASSED WITHOUT A HITCH
One of the hotter potatoes ahead of the summit passed surprisingly smoothly.
Leaders ultimately refrained from bulldozing the EU’s climate targets, agreeing
to a vaguely worded commitment to a green transition, though without committing
to a 2040 goal, which proposes cutting emissions by 90 percent compared to 1990
levels.
In the words of one diplomat: “Classic balance, everyone equally unhappy.”
14. AT LEAST ONE LEADER SEEMED PLEASED, THOUGH
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the summit a “turning point” in
Europe’s approach to green policy, adding he succeeded in inserting a “revision
clause” into the EU’s plan to extend its carbon-trading system to heating and
transport emissions that will give member countries the option to delay or
adjust the rollout.
“We’ve defused a threat to Polish families and drivers,” he declared, calling
the change a signal that “Europe is finally speaking our language.”
15. BUT THE ISSUE WON’T STAY BURIED FOR LONG
Ministers are set to reconvene and cast a vote on the 2040 goal on Nov. 4,
described by one diplomat as “groundhog day.”
16. MEANWHILE, THERE WAS NOTHING ON MIGRATION …
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the summit a “turning point” in
Europe’s approach to green policy. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images
Aside from promising to make migration a “priority,” the EU’s leaders failed to
make any kind of breakthrough on a stalled proposal for burden-sharing.
Reminder: The EU missed a deadline last week to agree on a new way of deciding
which member countries are under stress from receiving migrants and ways of
sharing the responsibility more equally across the bloc.
17. … BUT THE ANTI-MIGRANT BREAKFAST CLUB LIVES ON
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and the Netherlands’ Dick
Schoof have kept up their informal pre-summit “migration breakfasts” since last
June, swapping innovative ideas on tougher border and asylum policies.
They met again on Thursday with von der Leyen, who updated them on the EU’s
latest plans for accelerating migrant returns, and the trio agreed an informal
summit will take place next month in Rome.
18. NOR DID THE EU’S SOCIAL MEDIA BAN GET MUCH OF A LOOK IN
As expected, the leaders endorsed a “possible” minimum age for kids to use
social media, but failed to commit to a bloc-wide ban, with capitals divided on
whether to make the age 15 or 16, as well as on the issue of parental consent.
19. THERE WAS A WHOLE LOT OF WAITING FOR NEWS…
Journalists were frantically pressing their sources in the Council and national
delegations to find out what was happening at the leaders’ table as the meeting
dragged into the late hours. It eventually finished at 10.30 p.m. ― 12 and a
half hours after it began.
20. … AND THE GREENS SEIZED THEIR MOMENT
The EU Parliament’s Greens group co-chair Bas Eickhout wandered the hallways of
the Justus Lipsius building ready to brief bored journalists about the wonders
of the Green Deal — while leaders debated how to unravel it in the other room.
21. THE COMBUSTION ENGINE BAN FELL FLAT
One of the pillars of the EU’s green transition, its 2035 de facto combustion
engine ban, was set to play a major role in the competitiveness and climate
discussions, with Merz and Fico spoiling for a fight over the proposal — yet it
barely registered as a footnote.
Slovakia used the climate talks to oppose the ban, and the Czech Republic chimed
in to agree, but in the end the summit’s official conclusions welcomed the
Commission’s proposed ban without mentioning how it should be watered down.
22. THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL’S VENDING MACHINES AREN’T VERY, ER, COMPETITIVE
Officials and journalists alike found that the vending machines in the EU’s
Justus Lipsius building, which incidentally is due for a €1 billion renovation,
about as efficient as a roundtable of 27 national leaders lasting 12 and a half
hours.
23. THE BLOC IS WORRIED ABOUT CHINA…
Beijing’s export controls on rare earths came up in the talks on
competitiveness, according to two EU officials, with some leaders expressing
their concerns.
24. … BUT THEY’RE NOT READY TO GO NUCLEAR — YET
One of the officials said the EU’s most powerful trade weapon, the Anti-Coercion
Instrument, was mentioned, but didn’t garner much interest around the table.
25. HOUSING GETS 40 MINUTES — NOT BAD FOR A FIRST RUN
Leaders spent a chunk of time discussing the continent’s housing crisis. A solid
start for the topic, which made it onto the agenda for the first time at Costa’s
behest.
The EU executive “is ready to help,” von der Leyen said after the summit,
announcing a European Affordable Housing Plan is in the pipeline and the first
EU Housing Summit in 2026. | Dursun Aydemir/Getty Images
During talks, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called on the Commission
to create a database tracking which housing policies work — and which don’t —
across Europe. Most leaders agreed that, while housing remains a national
competence, the EU still has a role to play.
26. AND THE COMMISSION WANTS TO ROLL UP ITS SLEEVES
The EU executive “is ready to help,” von der Leyen said after the summit,
announcing a European Affordable Housing Plan is in the pipeline and the first
EU Housing Summit in 2026.
27. LEADERS ENJOYED A FEAST OR TWO
For lunch, langoustine with yuzu, celeriac and apple, fillet of veal with
artichokes and crispy polenta, and a selection of fresh fruit. For dinner,
cannelloni with herbs, courgette velouté, fillet of brill with chorizo and
pepper, and fig meringue cake. Yum.
28. THOUGH A FEW COULDN’T MAKE IT
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the most notable absence, rocking up
several hours late due to a national holiday in Budapest. Portugal and
Slovenia’s leaders were also absent at one point.
29. AND COSTA KEPT HIS PROMISE … JUST
The European Council president pledged to streamline summits under his watch,
making them one-day affairs instead of two. And with just a couple hours to
spare, he was successful.
Okay, breathe. Did we miss anything? (Don’t answer that.)
Gerardo Fortuna, Max Griera Andrieu, Jordyn Dahl, Gabriel Gavin, Hanne
Cokelaere, Clea Caulcutt, Hans von der Burchard, Kathryn Carlson, Tim Ross,
Jacopo Barigazzi, Gregorio Sorgi, Eliza Gkritsi, Carlo Martuscelli, Nicholas
Vinocur, Saga Ringmar, Sarah Wheaton, Louise Guillot, Zia Weise, Camille Gijs,
Bartosz Brzezinski and Giedre Peseckyte contributed to this report.