Could von der Leyen really lose confidence vote? Here’s what the numbers say.

BRUSSELS ― Ursula von der Leyen faces her second round of no-confidence votes in less than three months next week. Opposition is mounting, but centrist lawmakers are expected to choose stability over ousting her.

While MEPs ― including some from her center-right European People’s Party ― are increasingly critical of the Commission president’s leadership, they are more likely to use Monday’s European Parliament debate to air their grievances than join with the extremes of right and left to fire her in Thursday’s votes.

“There are many good reasons to criticize Ursula von der Leyen,” said the Parliament’s German Greens chief, Erik Marquardt. But “we do not believe that a successor would necessarily be any better than the current Commission president.” 

It’s unprecedented for the EU’s leadership to be faced with no-confidence votes in such quick succession. (The last one was in July.) As well as underscoring how the Parliament contains, for the first time, sizable blocs from the political extremes that have found calling such motions a useful tool to make noise, it reveals the increasing unease ― in Brussels and across Europe ― about the direction of von der Leyen’s Commission. 

There will be two separate no-confidence votes on Oct. 9, one submitted by the far-right Patriots for Europe group and another by The Left (which is further to the left than the mainstream Socialists & Democrats). 

The Parliament is made up of 719 MEPs. Two-thirds of the MEPs who cast a vote have to vote against von der Leyen for her to fall. Combined, the Patriots, The Left and the ESN (a separate far-right group) have 158 lawmakers — so they would still need a sizable number from the center to move against her. 

While there is some evidence that the center is turning against von der Leyen, it’s not anywhere serious enough to bring about her downfall, according to POLITICO’s conversations with  11  lawmakers and parliamentary officials.

The two groups that have called the no-confidence vote — held in Strasbourg — accuse her variously of weakening the EU, lack of transparency, poor judgement in trade agreements with the U.S. and Latin America, her stance on Gaza, abandoning farmers and weakening climate rules.  

The S&D, the liberal Renew group, the Greens and even the EPP ― all of whom voted her into office ― all have their pet peeves.

Many in her own party are still sore about her announcement that the EU would cut ties with Israel and propose sanctions in response to its invasion of Gaza, which was not communicated ahead of time.

“Sometimes her actions are hard to stomach,” said an EPP official who, like others in this piece, was granted anonymity to be candid about their own party. An EPP lawmaker said von der Leyen faces “growing opposition” within national delegations of her party. 

What some in all political groups share is a feeling that von der Leyen is pushing through an agenda with national capitals that circumvents the European Parliament. 

POLITICO research suggests that the growing opposition is likely to be reflected in the final numbers. But MEPs from von der Leyen’s centrist allies say there’s so far no appetite for the nuclear option of voting her out of office. 

 The no-confidence motion before the summer, submitted by the Polish and Romanian delegations of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group, fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass but highlighted the lukewarm support for the Commission: Only 553 of the Parliament’s 719 lawmakers cast a vote, with 175 of them voting against von der Leyen.  

In July, though many centrist lawmakers expressed frustration at von der Leyen’s leadership, they either did not show up to vote (86, counting EPP, S&D, Renew and Greens), abstained (11) or voted in her favor (355) because they believed the no-confidence vote was a far-right plot to create chaos. Only two from the centrist groups voted against her.

This time, however, a greater number of MEPs feel comfortable voting against von der Leyen on the motion put forward by The Left, according to POLITICO’s conversations.

That even includes MEPs from the Patriots, whose leader Jordan Bardella, a protegé of France’s Marine Le Pen, has said his group would support it despite ideological divides.   

Relying on the positions of lawmakers in the previous censure vote and early signals from MEP delegations, POLITICO’s projection for the next vote also assumes the support of a significant share of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group for the motion.   

What could be von der Leyen’s worst-case scenario also includes Socialist, Renew and Greens lawmakers who didn’t cast a vote in support of the Commission in July ending up in the pool of MEPs who could now bolster the anti-von der Leyen camp.  

Under this scenario, von der Leyen would see up to 305 votes against her ― still short of the  480 needed for the two-thirds majority to topple her, if all lawmakers were to turn up and vote. 

Green and Socialist dismay

An example of the shifting sands is the French section of MEPs in the Greens group.

They did not show up to the July vote but this time around will vote in favor of bringing the Commission down, its head, Marie Toussaint, told POLITICO. For them the complaint is von der Leyen’s approach to trade deals with the U.S. and Latin American countries, which the Greens say runs counter to protecting the environment. 

“We absolutely must find a way to stop this policy that is being pursued, which involves both the abandonment of sovereignty and major ecological setbacks,” said Toussaint. 

Among the Socialists, too, there is wide discontent. Despite a statement by the group that it would stand behind von der Leyen, some national delegations ― or individual MEPs ― could break ranks and move against the Commission over von der Leyen’s handling of trade policy, the Gaza conflict, and backtracking on the so-called Green Deal because of “simplification” plans they say are watering down climate laws.  

“When it comes to the motion coming from The Left, there are some issues that were heavily debated in the European Parliament,” Socialist Parliament vice-president Victor Negrescu said. “Some of them could mobilize and convince some of the S&D members to vote for that respective motion.” 

POLITICO contacted many of the Socialists national delegation chairs to ask what they would vote for and received no response.

After the last motion, in which the S&D leadership pressured von der Leyen up to the last minute, this time around they have already signaled they will stand behind her more than a week in advance.

‘Destabilizing games’

 Many lawmakers believe that if von der Leyen were to be pushed out, EU governments would likely settle on, in their view, a worse candidate.  

For the liberals and Socialists, removing von der Leyen from office would also mean bringing down their own commissioners, potentially reducing their own influence. While the Commission is dominated by the center right, those commissioners work with four from the Socialists and  five  from the liberals. 
 
That’s why some parts of the liberal Renew Europe group  that openly dislike von der Leyen, such as the German FDP, which opposed her second term, will vote in her favor for the sake of stability.  

“We will not participate in such deliberately destabilizing games,” the head of the FDP in the Parliament and defense committee chair Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmerman told POLITICO.  

“Despite all the mistakes she has made, her continued misguided trade and economic policies, and her failure to reduce bureaucracy as she promised, we will not support such attempts in the current climate.”

At odds with von der Leyen is also the Irish liberal delegation, some of whose lawmakers abstained or voted against von der Leyen. This time they will only take a final decision during the week of the vote, said MEP Barry Andrews. 

The German Socialist delegation head, René Repasi , told POLITICO they will vote in favor of von der Leyen and criticized the use of no-confidence motions by the extremes of the Parliament “in an inflammatory manner.”