Only a few days ago, President Donald Trump lashed out at Europe in an interview
with POLITICO as a “decaying” group of countries with “weak” leaders. In public
at least, it didn’t ruffle European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“I have always had a very good working relationship with the presidents of the
United States, and this is also the case today,” von der Leyen said in an
interview at this year’s POLITICO 28 event. “From the bottom of my heart, I’m a
convinced transatlanticist.”
Now in her second term leading the EU’s lawmaking body, von der Leyen also
acknowledged that Europe’s relationship with the United States is in flux, and
not just because of Trump.
“Of course, our relationship to the United States has changed. Why? Because we
are changing,” she said. “And this is so important that we keep in mind: What is
our position? What is our strength? Let’s work on these. Let’s take pride in
that. Let’s stand up for a unified Europe.”
The question of European unity is front of mind as Russia’s war on Ukraine
grinds on and Trump pushes harder for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to
accept a peace deal.
In her interview with POLITICO, von der Leyen emphasized the need for a “just
and lasting peace” with real security guarantees. “This peace agreement should
be such a solid peace agreement that it does not sow the seeds for the next
conflict immediately,” she said.
The Russian threat also goes beyond Ukraine, of course. How long until Europe is
fully able to defend itself? “That’s a good question,” von der Leyen said. “We
have not the luxury of time.”
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
I want to start with a question very much on the minds of the people in this
room: Will there be a funding agreement by next week for Ukraine to keep the
fight up against Russia?
We’re working intensively towards a just and lasting peace. And I emphasize
“just and lasting” because this peace agreement should be such a solid peace
agreement that it does not sow the seeds for the next conflict immediately.
In a new interview, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discusses
Russia’s war on Ukraine and Trump’s challenge to Europe.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gestures as she delivers a
major state of the union speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg,
France, earlier this month.
Only a few days ago, President Donald Trump lashed out at Europe in an interview
with POLITICO as a “decaying” group of countries with “weak” leaders. In public
at least, it didn’t ruffle European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“I have always had a very good working relationship with the presidents of the
United States, and this is also the case today,” von der Leyen said in an
interview at this year’s POLITICO 28 event. “From the bottom of my heart, I’m a
convinced transatlanticist.”
Now in her second term leading the EU’s lawmaking body, von der Leyen also
acknowledged that Europe’s relationship with the United States is in flux, and
not just because of Trump.
“Of course, our relationship to the United States has changed. Why? Because we
are changing,” she said. “And this is so important that we keep in mind: What is
our position? What is our strength? Let’s work on these. Let’s take pride in
that. Let’s stand up for a unified Europe.”
The question of European unity is front of mind as Russia’s war on Ukraine
grinds on and Trump pushes harder for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to
accept a peace deal.
In her interview with POLITICO, von der Leyen emphasized the need for a “just
and lasting peace” with real security guarantees. “This peace agreement should
be such a solid peace agreement that it does not sow the seeds for the next
conflict immediately,” she said.
The Russian threat also goes beyond Ukraine, of course. How long until Europe is
fully able to defend itself? “That’s a good question,” von der Leyen said. “We
have not the luxury of time.”
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
I want to start with a question very much on the minds of the people in this
room: Will there be a funding agreement by next week for Ukraine to keep the
fight up against Russia?
We’re working intensively towards a just and lasting peace. And I emphasize
“just and lasting” because this peace agreement should be such a solid peace
agreement that it does not sow the seeds for the next conflict immediately.
Tag - State of the Union
BRUSSELS — The European Commission is in talks with eight of Europe’s top
investors to involve them in a fund to support homegrown companies working on
critical technologies.
Representatives from the private investors are in Brussels on Tuesday to discuss
their involvement, according to a planning note seen by POLITICO.
The fund has been in the works since the spring and will combine EU money with
private investment to fill a late-stage financing gap for European tech startups
— buying stakes to support companies ranging from artificial intelligence to
quantum.
It could range from €3 billion to €5 billion, depending on how much investors
contribute.
The investors invited to meet with the Commission on Tuesday are Danish
investment company Novo Holdings, the Export and Investment Fund of Denmark,
Spanish CriteriaCaixa and Santander, Italian Intesa Sanpaolo, Dutch pension fund
APG Asset Management, Swedish Wallenberg Investments, and Polish Development
Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, according to the planning note.
The fund will focus on “strategic and enabling technologies,” the note read,
including advanced materials, clean energy, artificial intelligence,
semiconductors, quantum technology, robotics, space and medical technologies.
The Commission is seeking to address the issue of companies struggling to scale
in Europe. Many turn to investors from the U.S. or elsewhere for late-stage
financing, after which they often relocate.
The goal of the fund is to make sure that startups that have completed their
early funding rounds can “secure scaleup financing while maintaining their
headquarters and core activities in Europe,” the note said.
The fund follows an earlier effort to take direct equity stakes in companies
through the European Innovation Council Fund. Investments under the EIC Fund are
capped at €30 million, while the new fund would invest €100 million or more.
The fund will launch in April. Other investors could still come in at a later
date.
In November, the Commission plans to begin the search for an investment adviser
— a process that should be wrapped up by January, according to the planning
note.
BRUSSELS — An EU plan to sanction Israel’s government ministers and cut back on
trade ties has been put on ice as a leading group of member countries believes
it’s no longer necessary in light of the U.S.-brokered peace agreement to end
the war in Gaza.
The original push is now unlikely to find sufficient support at meetings of
foreign ministers and EU leaders this month, according to four European
diplomats, granted anonymity to speak to POLITICO about the closed-door talks.
An agreement among all 27 capitals would be needed to impose the penalties, and
despite growing pressure on the EU to act, the deal announced by U.S. President
Donald Trump has divided national governments on the way forward. Separate
measures to restrict trade could be introduced with the backing of a smaller
group of countries, but this too now looks unlikely, according to the diplomats.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used her State of the Union
address in September to announce she would move to blacklist “extremist
ministers,” impose restrictions on violent West Bank settlers and pause
bilateral payments to Israel.
Those proposals are due to be discussed at a Foreign Affairs Council in
Luxembourg on Oct. 20 and a summit of leaders in Brussels on Oct. 23. Despite
that, draft documents reveal that no consensus has yet been achieved.
In comments to POLITICO, Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot — whose country
has been pushing for a tougher stance on Israel — said it was “regrettable” the
EU had taken more than two years to present measures.
“The credibility of the EU’s foreign policy has been seriously shaken,” he said.
“For many citizens, it is still difficult to understand why the EU is incapable
of taking firm decisions.”
Germany, Hungary and a handful of other delegations have consistently opposed
the implementation of sanctions, even though there has been broad agreement at
the political level and a joint EU declaration backing steps against settlers
accused of human rights breaches.
In the wake of the announcement that Hamas and Israel had “signed off on the
first phase” of a pact to end the war, European Commission spokesperson Paula
Pinho this week hinted the bloc could change its stance.
The sanctions were “proposed in a given context, and if the context changes,
that could eventually lead to a change of the proposal,” she said.
According to the diplomats who spoke to POLITICO, the Commission currently
doesn’t intend to withdraw the plan even if the prospect of a lasting ceasefire
has cast it into uncertainty.
The European Commission floated the possibility of withdrawing or amending its
proposal to partially suspend the EU–Israel Association Agreement and sanction
two ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
The measures were “proposed in a given context, and if the context changes, that
could eventually lead to a change of the proposal,” Commission spokesperson
Paula Pinho said Monday, adding that the goal of the measures was to bring about
a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war.
A ceasefire began in Gaza on Friday as part of the “first phase” of a peace
deal agreed by Israel and Hamas.
In September, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to
restrict trade with Israel and sanction “extremist ministers” in Netanyahu’s
cabinet. Brussels also suspended EU funding that supports cooperation with
Israel, worth a total of around €14 million, and floated freezing participation
in parts of the Horizon Europe research program.
“We are very, very pleased, as everybody across the world is, to see that we now
have a ceasefire, and we want to really see this peace implemented,” the
spokesperson said, but cautioned that when it comes to changing planned
measures, “we are not there yet.”
BALL IN EU MINISTERS’ COURT
The Commission said it will now assess whether there is a need to revise its
proposals based on how the next stage of the peace process unfolds, and the
topic will be raised at the next meeting of EU foreign ministers on Oct. 20.
Asked by POLITICO, another Commission spokesperson said that “the ball is now in
the [foreign ministers’] court,” and the EU executive will wait until after that
discussion before taking any further action on the package.
Although the Commission can technically withdraw its own proposal, two EU
spokespersons told POLITICO that doing so may now be politically difficult, as
the measures were adopted in a formal College meeting and publicly announced by
von der Leyen during her State of the Union address — making a unilateral
reversal unlikely without first consulting EU ministers.
Speaking to POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook, Israel’s newly appointed ambassador to
the EU, Avi Nir-Feldklein, said that for a reset of EU–Israel relations, the EU
should restore funding for cooperation with Israeli institutions that von der
Leyen had suspended, in addition to reconsidering the proposed restrictions on
joint projects.
BRUSSELS ― Ursula von der Leyen has a fresh strategy for convincing opponents to
back her: Listen more, talk to them, and even give a little ground.
Her tactics have been in evidence in the run-up to this week’s two European
Parliament no-confidence votes ― and critics from rival parties have already
signaled it’s working.
The European Commission president “has shown lately more willingness for
consultation, cooperation and a stronger commitment to bring people together
around the table, including [on] the 2026 [Commission] work program,” Valérie
Hayer, the leader of the liberal Renew Europe group, told POLITICO. “It’s a long
and overdue step in the right direction.”
Von der Leyen will rely on votes from Hayer’s group, as well as from her own
center-right European People’s Party and the Socialists and Democrats, when MEPs
vote on Thursday. The three centrist parties have traditionally supported the
Commission president and voted her into office for a new term that started Dec.
1.
But it’s the second time in three months she’s faced a no-confidence vote, and
these groups haven’t been happy with her decisions on trade policy, on the EU’s
next seven-year budget, and — for the Socialists and liberals in particular — on
her drive to cut back on red tape, which they see as dialing back green
commitments.
No one seriously expects her to fall ― the two motions have been brought by the
far left and far right, and even together, their votes aren’t nearly enough to
topple her. This time round, her team didn’t even ask Commission staff to carry
out an assessment of the likely outcome like they did in July, two Commission
officials said.
But the numbers do matter, particularly since von der Leyen will rely on support
from across the center to push through her agenda in the coming months.
Her approach has now shifted away from the more combative style she
demonstrated before the summer and which seemed to alienate many whose support
she needs.
Her new three-step strategy underscores a more cooperative tone and a
willingness to engage rather than confront, according to conversations with five
officials from the Commission, von der Leyen’s party and the Parliament, who all
spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of
the deliberations.
STEP 1: TALK MORE, LISTEN MORE
The shift started before her State of the Union speech in September, two
Parliament officials told POLITICO. That was when von der Leyen’s cabinet pushed
to wrap up a long-stalled revision of the Framework Agreement — the rulebook
defining how the Commission and the Parliament work together.
Talks had dragged on for months, bogged down by the Parliament’s demands, which
the Commission felt were too ambitious.
In the end, a deal emerged — modest because the two institutions differ greatly
on how they should cooperate, but politically useful for them both. The
Commission’s main goal was to defuse criticism that von der Leyen wasn’t doing
enough to rebuild trust with MEPs.
The shift started before Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech in
September, two Parliament officials told POLITICO. | Sebastien Bozon/AFP via
Getty Images
She has since made visible gestures. In the State of the Union address she made
a point of mentioning the horrors in Gaza — a sign she was willing to listen to
socialist, green and leftist MEPs.
She also slipped in a reference to the Green Deal, once her favorite slogan for
the climate rules she wanted to introduce, but largely ignored during last
year’s European election campaign.
Both moves were aimed squarely at MEPs who felt their calls on these issues had
long been ignored.
“There’s more contact at different levels since July,” said one Commission
official close to von der Leyen’s team, pointing to outreach not just from von
der Leyen but also from her top aides, including other commissioners.
On Tuesday, the Commission’s executive vice presidents will join the
Parliament’s Conference of Committee Chairs — the internal body coordinating
committee work. Von der Leyen won’t attend, but the EU executive will be “in
listening mode” for the Parliament’s demands, according to the Commission
official.
“Phone calls, meetings, dinners — there’s talk, negotiation, and finally
compromise,” said an official from von der Leyen’s EPP group in the Parliament.
“It’s simply politics.”
STEP 2: GIVE (A LITTLE BIT) MORE
The contacts between von der Leyen’s team and those of the EPP, Socialist and
liberal chairs are ramping up ahead of the presentation of the Commission’s
annual work program for 2026 — the document that lays out the EU’s legislative
priorities.
The program is being used by centrist parties to stabilize the situation over
the year to come, by signing off on a common program they can all support.
It also doubles as a bargaining chip because it means von der Leyen can more
likely count on better support from MEPs when legislation is proposed next year.
By Thursday, when MEPs hold the no-confidence vote in Strasbourg, von der Leyen
will be back in Brussels to speak at the Global Gateway Forum — an annual event
organized by the EU executive to boost secure infrastructure investments
worldwide. It’s notable that she won’t be in the room when the votes are being
cast ― so all the horse-trading will have to happen in the next few hours before
she leaves Strasbourg.
Von der Leyen has packed her Strasbourg schedule with meetings with political
groups, a Commission official said.
“The aim is to discuss the Commission work program, and these meetings will also
be an enabler ahead of the vote, as groups will likely ask for political wins,”
the official explained.
Another Commission official, however, played down the idea of last-minute
giveaways. “There’s a lot of communication between the Commission and Parliament
in the run-up to the work program — but it’s the same every year,” they said.
STEP 3: CLASH LESS
If in July her counter-attack was blunt ― anyone voting against her was
essentially doing Russia’s work ― then three months on it’s clear she’s decided
that the side-with-me-or-side-with-Moscow approach doesn’t work.
“I know there are some of you who are still unsure how to vote later this week,”
she told MEPs during Monday night’s parliamentary debate. “This is why I want to
renew my pledge that this College [of the 27 commissioners] will engage with you
in whatever format is needed to try to find the answers together.”
Her tone throughout was noticeably more measured. “This is a trap, and we must
not fall for it,” she said, referring to those she said were trying to divide
the EU.
She even acknowledged that many criticisms “come from a place of genuine and
legitimate concern,” citing Gaza, Ukraine, trade, and U.S. relations.
Even the delivery was lighter. She spoke for just seven minutes — less than half
her speaking time in July.
And while the debate was still going on, she checked with Parliament President
Roberta Metsola whether it was OK to leave the chamber with a thumbs-up sign.
Metsola allowed it ― in stark contrast to when von der Leyen walked out midway
through a Parliamentary debate in January on her controversial decision to
disburse billions of euros in EU funds to Hungary, drawing the ire of lawmakers
on all sides.
It was a subtle change of approach. But it didn’t go unnoticed.
BRUSSELS ― Ursula von der Leyen can’t get too comfortable. Around every corner
there will be another referendum on her leadership.
When she appears before the European Parliament on Monday evening ― to defend
her reputation three days ahead of a second set of no-confidence votes in three
months ― it’s in the knowledge that even if her centrist opponents are keeping
her in post for now, there’s always a next time.
From trade deals and the bloc’s looming seven-year budget to questions about the
European Commission’s commitment to transparency or even how she navigates the
EU’s place in an increasingly competitive world, opportunities that allow
members of the Parliament to pass judgement on von der Leyen’s performance will
keep on coming. This week ― according to POLITICO research ― she’s almost
certainly safe. But beyond that?
“We will judge her against her implementation efforts but that won’t be in
October,” said René Repasi, head of the German set of MEPs in the Socialists and
Democrats, the second-largest group in the Parliament after von der Leyen’s. She
“has made clear that she has understood where Europe’s problems lie. Now she
must implement her proposals.”
With European Council President António Costa playing second fiddle to von der
Leyen on the world stage as she burnishes her relationship with U.S. President
Donald Trump, and the leaders of France and Germany struggling to be as powerful
as their predecessors, the Commission chief’s role is coming under the
microscope more than it ever used to. The days of consensual EU politics seem
over.
The S&D, the liberal Renew group, the Greens and even some of von der Leyen’s
center-right European People’s Party are dismayed at her record. None are ready
to move against her in any meaningful way right now, but few rule out the
possibility of challenges down the line.
“We don’t exclude” playing the censure card “if we see the need,” a spokesperson
for Iratxe García, chair of the S&D group, told Brussels Playbook, on condition
of anonymity in line with policy.
BECOMING ROUTINE
The two motions of no confidence this week and the one von der Leyen fought in
July were proposed separately by groups on the relative fringes. The far-right
Patriots and The Left are following a path trodden by the right-wing European
Conservatives and Reformists.
There’s little evidence they will stop trying. With only 72 signatures out of
720 MEPs required, no-confidence motions might start becoming routine. The tool
isn’t new in the EU treaty, it’s just that lawmakers seem to have woken up to
using it.
While The Left said there was no plan to keep coming with ever more motions to
challenge her position, right-wing lawmakers remain noncommittal, saying they’re
waiting to assess how this week’s vote unfolds.
In any case, it’s not just the formal confidence votes. Other prominent issues
in von der Leyen’s second term could well end up as referendums on her
leadership. Even if the Parliament votes don’t remove her from office, they
could hamstring her.
These include trade deals with the U.S. and Latin America and the Commission’s
first “simplification” package aimed at removing red tape, which has been
plagued by disagreements between von der Leyen’s EPP and the S&D.
The two motions of no confidence this week and the one von der Leyen fought in
July were proposed separately by groups on the relative fringes. The far-right
Patriots and The Left are following a path trodden by the right-wing European
Conservatives and Reformists. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty
Images
And last week, those two largest political groups in the Parliament signaled
they are ready to topple the EU’s proposed long-term budget as they oppose a
change that von der Leyen pushed for.
“There are many other votes coming that will test her leadership,” said an EPP
MEP granted anonymity to speak candidly about their party’s most senior figure.
The MEP pointed at “the U.S. trade deal, which is directly associated with her
after Scotland [where she signed it at Trump’s Turnberry golf course], the
budget, which everyone in Parliament seems to dislike, and the Mercosur [Latin
America trade] deal.”
CHANGE THE RULES?
The Parliament does have the right to change its rules to demand a higher number
of signatures to force a no-confidence vote.
“It would be great if they raised the threshold and bring the dignity back for
the motion,” an official from the Commission said on condition of anonymity to
allow discussion of confidential matters, suggesting that the more the
Parliament uses the tool, the less impact it would have.
The official said there had been no talks with the Parliament, however, and it
remained “a Parliament prerogative.”
“There is a clear frustration in Parliament toward this Commission, to von der
Leyen namely, you never know when the political tides will change,” the official
said.
BRUSSELS ― Ursula von der Leyen faces her second round of no-confidence votes in
less than three months next week. Opposition is mounting, but centrist lawmakers
are expected to choose stability over ousting her.
While MEPs ― including some from her center-right European People’s Party ― are
increasingly critical of the Commission president’s leadership, they are more
likely to use Monday’s European Parliament debate to air their grievances than
join with the extremes of right and left to fire her in Thursday’s votes.
“There are many good reasons to criticize Ursula von der Leyen,” said the
Parliament’s German Greens chief, Erik Marquardt. But “we do not believe that a
successor would necessarily be any better than the current Commission
president.”
It’s unprecedented for the EU’s leadership to be faced with no-confidence votes
in such quick succession. (The last one was in July.) As well as underscoring
how the Parliament contains, for the first time, sizable blocs from the
political extremes that have found calling such motions a useful tool to make
noise, it reveals the increasing unease ― in Brussels and across Europe ― about
the direction of von der Leyen’s Commission.
There will be two separate no-confidence votes on Oct. 9, one submitted by the
far-right Patriots for Europe group and another by The Left (which is further to
the left than the mainstream Socialists & Democrats).
The Parliament is made up of 719 MEPs. Two-thirds of the MEPs who cast a vote
have to vote against von der Leyen for her to fall. Combined, the Patriots, The
Left and the ESN (a separate far-right group) have 158 lawmakers — so they would
still need a sizable number from the center to move against her.
While there is some evidence that the center is turning against von der Leyen,
it’s not anywhere serious enough to bring about her downfall, according to
POLITICO’s conversations with 11 lawmakers and parliamentary officials.
The two groups that have called the no-confidence vote — held in Strasbourg
— accuse her variously of weakening the EU, lack of transparency, poor judgement
in trade agreements with the U.S. and Latin America, her stance on Gaza,
abandoning farmers and weakening climate rules.
The S&D, the liberal Renew group, the Greens and even the EPP ― all of whom
voted her into office ― all have their pet peeves.
Many in her own party are still sore about her announcement that the EU would
cut ties with Israel and propose sanctions in response to its invasion of Gaza,
which was not communicated ahead of time.
“Sometimes her actions are hard to stomach,” said an EPP official who, like
others in this piece, was granted anonymity to be candid about their own party.
An EPP lawmaker said von der Leyen faces “growing opposition” within national
delegations of her party.
What some in all political groups share is a feeling that von der Leyen is
pushing through an agenda with national capitals that circumvents the European
Parliament.
POLITICO research suggests that the growing opposition is likely to be reflected
in the final numbers. But MEPs from von der Leyen’s centrist allies say there’s
so far no appetite for the nuclear option of voting her out of office.
The no-confidence motion before the summer, submitted by the Polish and
Romanian delegations of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists
group, fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass but highlighted the
lukewarm support for the Commission: Only 553 of the Parliament’s 719 lawmakers
cast a vote, with 175 of them voting against von der Leyen.
In July, though many centrist lawmakers expressed frustration at von der Leyen’s
leadership, they either did not show up to vote (86, counting EPP, S&D, Renew
and Greens), abstained (11) or voted in her favor (355) because they believed
the no-confidence vote was a far-right plot to create chaos. Only two from the
centrist groups voted against her.
This time, however, a greater number of MEPs feel comfortable voting against von
der Leyen on the motion put forward by The Left, according to POLITICO’s
conversations.
That even includes MEPs from the Patriots, whose leader Jordan Bardella, a
protegé of France’s Marine Le Pen, has said his group would support it despite
ideological divides.
Relying on the positions of lawmakers in the previous censure vote and early
signals from MEP delegations, POLITICO’s projection for the next vote also
assumes the support of a significant share of the right-wing European
Conservatives and Reformists group for the motion.
What could be von der Leyen’s worst-case scenario also includes Socialist, Renew
and Greens lawmakers who didn’t cast a vote in support of the Commission in July
ending up in the pool of MEPs who could now bolster the anti-von der Leyen
camp.
Under this scenario, von der Leyen would see up to 305 votes against her ― still
short of the 480 needed for the two-thirds majority to topple her, if all
lawmakers were to turn up and vote.
GREEN AND SOCIALIST DISMAY
An example of the shifting sands is the French section of MEPs in the Greens
group.
They did not show up to the July vote but this time around will vote in favor of
bringing the Commission down, its head, Marie Toussaint, told POLITICO. For them
the complaint is von der Leyen’s approach to trade deals with the U.S. and Latin
American countries, which the Greens say runs counter to protecting the
environment.
“We absolutely must find a way to stop this policy that is being pursued, which
involves both the abandonment of sovereignty and major ecological setbacks,”
said Toussaint.
Among the Socialists, too, there is wide discontent. Despite a statement by the
group that it would stand behind von der Leyen, some national delegations ― or
individual MEPs ― could break ranks and move against the Commission over von der
Leyen’s handling of trade policy, the Gaza conflict, and backtracking on the
so-called Green Deal because of “simplification” plans they say are watering
down climate laws.
“When it comes to the motion coming from The Left, there are some issues that
were heavily debated in the European Parliament,” Socialist Parliament
vice-president Victor Negrescu said. “Some of them could mobilize and convince
some of the S&D members to vote for that respective motion.”
POLITICO contacted many of the Socialists national delegation chairs to ask what
they would vote for and received no response.
After the last motion, in which the S&D leadership pressured von der Leyen up to
the last minute, this time around they have already signaled they will stand
behind her more than a week in advance.
‘DESTABILIZING GAMES’
Many lawmakers believe that if von der Leyen were to be pushed out, EU
governments would likely settle on, in their view, a worse candidate.
For the liberals and Socialists, removing von der Leyen from office would also
mean bringing down their own commissioners, potentially reducing their own
influence. While the Commission is dominated by the center right, those
commissioners work with four from the Socialists and five from the liberals.
That’s why some parts of the liberal Renew Europe group that openly dislike von
der Leyen, such as the German FDP, which opposed her second term, will vote in
her favor for the sake of stability.
“We will not participate in such deliberately destabilizing games,” the head of
the FDP in the Parliament and defense committee chair Marie-Agnes
Strack-Zimmerman told POLITICO.
“Despite all the mistakes she has made, her continued misguided trade and
economic policies, and her failure to reduce bureaucracy as she promised, we
will not support such attempts in the current climate.”
At odds with von der Leyen is also the Irish liberal delegation, some of whose
lawmakers abstained or voted against von der Leyen. This time they will only
take a final decision during the week of the vote, said MEP Barry Andrews.
The German Socialist delegation head, René Repasi , told POLITICO they will vote
in favor of von der Leyen and criticized the use of no-confidence motions by the
extremes of the Parliament “in an inflammatory manner.”
COPENHAGEN ― The presidents of the European Commission and the European Council
have one thing in common ― their ideas aren’t flying.
That much became pretty obvious even before a summit of EU leaders in Copenhagen
on Wednesday stretched beyond its scheduled finishing time. Presidents and prime
ministers used the platform to insist that something must be done about Russian
aggression, but without really coming to much consensus on exactly what it
should be.
The proposals of both Commission boss Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa,
president of the European Council, faced strong resistance. Von der Leyen from
the biggest and most powerful EU countries like Germany, France and Italy, which
are naturally cautious about Commission overreach, and Costa from Hungary,
underscoring that, when it comes down to it, the bloc’s 27 nations still pull
the strings.
Von der Leyen, increasingly the face of the EU ― at least as far as Donald Trump
is concerned ― made a push to get support in Copenhagen on the establishment of
a “drone wall” that would detect and shoot down drones flying across Europe’s
eastern flank. But the concept as such was rejected by the biggest countries.
“I’m wary,” said French President Emmanuel Macron, adding “things [need to be] a
little more sophisticated.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed his
opposition in the summit room too, three officials said. The anti-drone idea is
expected to morph into something else, very likely with a different name.
The president of the European Council, which is made up of the bloc’s 27
governments, wanted to use the summit to push for agreement on scrapping the
need for all members to assent to new countries joining the EU. The idea was to
make it easier for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession, getting past countries
like Hungary who want to stop it happening.
But that didn’t get far off the ground either. In the summit room, Hungarian
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shot down the idea, according to three diplomats
with knowledge of the discussions in Copenhagen. Expectations are not high that
much will change on voting rules any time soon, they said.
Leaders did decide they should continue their work on finding a way to use €140
billion worth of Russian assets frozen in Europe since Moscow’s invasion in 2022
to fund Ukraine. They also reiterated their determination to find a way to
tackle Russian drone incursions in European airspace ― but neither of those
ideas found concrete solutions.
LEADERSHIP ROLE
One of the reasons the two presidents wanted to make a splash was because they
are vying for relevancy, and to make the point that they, personally, are doing
everything they can to help Ukraine, according to the three diplomats.
While von der Leyen has made many proposals to boost EU defense, this remains a
core part of national governments’ individual powers. The bloc’s biggest
countries don’t want the Commission to take away their authority. Smaller
countries are more sanguine, particularly those in the East, because they feel
more vulnerable to the Russian threat.
Costa wanted to show that he, too, could play a leadership part, two diplomats
said. Up until now he’s played mainly a supporting role, leaving von der Leyen
to bask in the spotlight. As a center-left chief presiding over a group of
leaders, most of whom are center-right, that’s meant Costa has had to pick his
battles.
Yet, officials were still unclear why the enlargement issue was a hill he wanted
to die on, given the low chances of success. There’s still the likelihood he has
a plan B, one official with knowledge of EU discussions said.
SOUNDS LIKE POPULISM
Officials rejected criticism that von der Leyen and Costa were pushing for badly
conceived proposals. “It’s just called leadership,” said another EU official,
implying that ideas are floated and gradually get pushed and evolve before they
become real.
The “drone wall” didn’t muster enough support. “I’m wary,” said French President
Emmanuel Macron. | Emil Helms/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images
The summit showed that Europe’s most powerful national leaders still have the
final word. That sometimes can be unsettling for those who operate the bloc’s
machinery in Brussels — particularly when they hear a leader like Germany’s Merz
start talking like there’s political capital in criticizing the EU.
In recent days he has attacked the Commission for an excess of red tape and
bureaucracy. EU officials and diplomats think that sounds like populism. They
also think they know what lies beneath it: He’s telling them to get back in
their box.
For von der Leyen and Costa, it means they still have an uphill battle.
Nette Nöstlinger, Giorgio Leali, Gerardo Fortuna and Gabriel Gavin contributed
to this article.
Ursula von der Leyen’s drone wall proposal to help protect Europe from Russia
now faces skepticism from both France and Germany.
“I’m wary of [those kinds of] terms. Things are a little more sophisticated and
complex,” French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters Wednesday before a
meeting with EU leaders in Copenhagen, pointing to his more pressing defense
priorities.
“In reality, we need to have advanced warning systems to better anticipate
threats, we need to deter with European long-range fire capabilities, and we
need to have more surface-to-air defense and counter-drone systems,” he said.
In recent weeks, drones have
violated Polish, Romanian, Danish and Norwegian airspace, with Europe casting
blame on Russia in many of the cases. Those incidents gave new momentum to a
so-called drone wall — an initiative first pitched by frontline countries last
year and backed by von der Leyen in her State of the Union address last month.
Earlier this week, however, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said there
were more urgent priorities to tackle. “Drone defense, of course, but not by a
drone wall,” he told an audience at the Warsaw Security Forum.
The drone wall debate also underscores how geography often leads to
disagreements among European leaders regarding how best to protect the continent
from external threats, including Russia — and those divisions were on show in
Copenhagen as leaders entered the summit.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni warned about not forgetting Europe’s
southern flank, a message echoed by her Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
“Any common European defense project concerning Europe cannot be limited to the
continent’s eastern borders,” he told reporters.
Meanwhile, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa and Lithuanian President Gitanas
Nausėda praised the project ahead of the Copenhagen meeting, highlighting a
clear divide between frontline nations and countries further from the Russian
and Ukrainian borders.
According to Macron, Europeans should focus instead on jointly developing early
warning systems (France and Germany are currently cooperating on the matter);
procure local “deterrent” deep-strike capabilities, including ballistic
missiles; and buy more air defense systems.
The French president also mentioned nuclear deterrence as playing a part.
That doesn’t mean drones are not important, Macron added. “We are moving forward
at a forced march pace to have drone and counter-drone capabilities,” he said.
The drone wall is one of four EU defense projects pitched by Brussels ahead of
Wednesday’s European Council meeting.
Elena Giordano and Nektaria Stamouli contributed to this report.
Talks are intensifying about a so-called drone wall to protect Europe’s eastern
borders from the Kremlin after a series of airspace violations by Russian
warplanes and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Seven EU member countries will meet Friday with the European Commission and
Ukraine to discuss the drone wall proposal, a spokesperson for the EU executive
confirmed Monday.
The online gathering will include seven front-line countries — Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania, Finland, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria — alongside Ukraine and
European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius.
“This is a concrete follow-up to President [Ursula] von der Leyen’s
announcement, as recent attacks and incursions have already [occurred] in
Romania and Poland,” European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said.
Von der Leyen had used her State of the Union speech earlier this month to
support demands for an EU-backed “drone wall,” arguing the bloc must “heed the
call of our Baltic friends” to defend its eastern borders.
The Commission president is expected to propose funding options for the drone
wall during an Oct. 1 informal meeting of EU leaders in Copenhagen, two
diplomats told POLITICO.
The new round of talks on the proposal will take place days after an
“unprecedentedly brazen” incident on Sept. 19 when three Russian military jets
violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes before being intercepted by Italian
F-35s. An incursion by Russian drones into Poland earlier this month also rocked
NATO countries.
“Member states remain in the driving seat,” Regnier stressed at the Monday press
briefing.
“We will see what their interest is, how we can help them, what their
capabilities are, what their needs are. Following this discussion, we will
decide on potential next steps hand in hand with these member states and
Ukraine,” he added.
The new development comes after Lithuania said the Commission had previously
rejected a joint €12 million drone wall funding request from Tallinn and Vilnius
during the summer — though Russia’s recent belligerence has added urgency to
revisiting the plan.
Laura Kayali contributed to this report.