‘Not very optimistic:’ Finnish president downplays prospects of Ukraine ceasefire this year

The president of Finland, Alexander Stubb, said a ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before the end of the year, pointing to the spring as a more plausible time for progress in ending the war.

His remarks, in an interview with the Associated Press, come as Europe scrambles to unlock financing for Kyiv’s war effort and the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tries to limit the damage from a major corruption scandal in the country.

“I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,” Stubb told the AP. He said it would be good to “get something going” on a ceasefire by March, when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s all-out invasion will have entered a fifth year.

As Ukraine and the EU try to maintain American support for Kyiv, Stubb is one of the European leaders with the best relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. The two have played golf together and Stubb has participated in group meetings with Trump and Zelenskyy.

The Finnish president said he can “explain to President Trump what Finland went through [in its wars with Russia] or how I see the situation on the battlefield, or how do you deal with Putin.” If Trump “accepts one out of 10 ideas, that’s good,” Stubb added.

The U.S. has pivoted in its stance on Ukraine, moving last month to sanction Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Stubb said Trump did “an excellent job,” but he also called for Russia’s “military or defense industry” to be hit.

Stubb said the reason Washington canceled a planned Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest was because the U.S. realized “the Russians haven’t moved an inch.” There was “no point in taking President Trump into a situation whereby he doesn’t get a deal or anything,” he said.

The failed Budapest summit is “another example of a strategic mistake by the Russians. They had an opportunity and they blew it,” Stubb said.

Ukraine’s goodwill with Western governments has taken a hit over an alleged $100 million kickback scheme in the energy sector which implicated current and former top officials and some of Zelenskyy’s allies.  

The corruption scandal has rocked Kyiv as Ukraine is urging EU partners to take a huge risk and agree on a €140 billion reparation loan taken from frozen Russian state assets. The country needs financial assistance to shore up its budget and continue the war effort ahead of a financing cliff-edge in 2026.