BRUSSELS — The EU needs to change its rules to enable a new wave of countries to
join, the bloc’s enlargement chief said Tuesday, calling on capitals to present
their own plans after they rejected proposals by the Commission to streamline
the process.
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the EU’s executive arm had already
presented three options to countries and “without … the decision of the member
states, we cannot move on,” speaking at POLITICO’s Competitive Europe Summit.
Those three options include maintaining the status quo, changing the current
system to ensure candidate countries don’t languish for years, or the reverse
enlargement proposal put forward by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
and her team, where applicants would join before completing key reforms.
The accession process has been complicated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
Orbán’s persistent refusal to ensure the unanimous support needed for Ukraine to
proceed in its candidacy. Reverse enlargement was envisioned by Brussels as a
way for Kyiv and others to begin to get access to the single market and
investment schemes before becoming a full EU member.
“From the first exchange with the member states [it’s clear] the number three
option is not okay … this would be a revolution,” Kos said in an onstage
interview, adding that “the number one option, the status quo, is also not an
option.”
While a redesign of the system is likely, the Slovenian commissioner went on,
“now we are debating into [which] direction. How can we make the process faster
in the sense of enhanced gradual integration?”
At a dinner with ambassadors earlier this month, von der Leyen’s chief of staff
Björn Seibert was warned that the reverse enlargement proposal was seen as
unworkable by capitals. Envoys cite both arduous legal requirements around how
new countries can join and fears that new countries could backslide
democratically and end up blocking the EU agenda, as Hungary has done.
“We think only one or two countries are supportive of the proposals from the
Commission so it’s not a great success,” said one of the diplomats, cautioning
that capitals want to ensure enlargement proceeds in a way that fits their own
legal requirements.
“There is great support for accession of Ukraine to the European Union,” said a
second diplomat. “But it is also true that almost no member state supports
accession before the negotiations will have been finished in a regular way.”
A DIFFERENT WAY
Four diplomats, granted anonymity to speak frankly about the sensitive talks,
told POLITICO that countries are now in the process of developing their own
proposals to share with the Commission. These would set out alternative
mechanisms, likely focusing on how candidate countries can feel the benefits of
alignment with the EU’s market and access to its investment schemes.
“If member states don’t like ‘reverse enlargement,’ that is fine,” said one EU
official, “but they can put their proposals on the table too.”
In a rare show of unity last month, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian
President Aleksandar Vučić penned an op-ed in Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung that bemoaned the slow pace of efforts to get the benefits of closer
alignment with the bloc. This was the result of “internal reforms, geopolitical
tensions, institutional constraints, and legitimate concerns within member
states,” they wrote.
Instead, they said, their countries want to join the Single Market, as well as
the borderless Schengen area, without getting the political rights and veto
power of full members. The plan, which would create a two-tier EU of rule makers
and rule takers, has been backed by some smaller candidate countries, and met
with skepticism from Moldova and Ukraine which aim to be admitted on an equal
basis as others have.
However, Kos dismissed the call, saying she was unsure if the leaders “know how
much you have to deliver if you want to be a part of Schengen or common market,”
and that the process of reforms is arduous for economic integration as well as
EU membership. No country has become a member since Croatia in 2013.
Ukraine’s aspiration to join the bloc by Jan. 1, 2027, she went on, would be
“impossible.” Iceland, by contrast, could be a “special case” and “really go
quick” if voters decide to reopen negotiations in a referendum to be held this
summer amid geopolitical insecurity and tensions with the United States.
President Donald Trump repeatedly mistook Iceland for Greenland in a speech in
January, as he insisted his country should take control of Arctic territories.
“Iceland is so much integrated already through the EEA that the Common Market is
there. Schengen is there,” Kos said. “So the most difficult topics, if I speak
about the necessary reforms or, being integrated in the EU, they already are
[there]. If we speak about the development of democracy, they are very high.
European values, they are very high.”
Tag - Negotiations
Danes head to the polls on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen having
called early parliamentary elections after her ruling Social Democrats received
a big boost from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Frederiksen could have waited until October 2026 to call the vote, but moved
early after standing up to Trump’s aggressive threats to annex Greenland earlier
this year. Her defiance generated a surge of support for the party just months
after it suffered a historic defeat in local elections last October.
But foreign policy won’t carry the day in this election. Voters are focused on
domestic issues, while Denmark’s fracturing coalition government — with two
other party leaders challenging the prime minister — has turned Tuesday’s vote
into a cliffhanger.
WHAT WILL DECIDE THE VOTE?
While Denmark may have come together to resist the pressure from the White
House, voters are most concerned about what’s happening at home. Ahead of the
vote Danish parties debated a plethora of divisive issues, none of which proved
decisive. A poll published by Epinion on Monday suggested almost one in five
Danes still didn’t know who they’d vote for.
Everything suggests that Frederiksen’s center-left party, the Social Democrats,
will prevail in the vote. Her big talking point has been the revival of a wealth
tax that hasn’t been enforced in Denmark for 30 years, and whose reinstatement
would thrill left-wing voters. But her main challenger, Deputy Prime Minister
Troels Lund Poulsen, leader of the center-right Venstre party, argues the
measure will prompt the richest Danes to emigrate, weakening the country’s
competitiveness.
Politicians have also debated whether to reinstate the country’s “Great Prayer
Day” holiday that Frederiksen’s government abolished in 2024, or to step up
efforts to clean polluted drinking water, improve animal welfare, lift the ban
on nuclear power, increase defense spending, and tighten migration rules.
RED OR BLUE?
Denmark’s political spectrum has long been divided between a red bloc of
left-leaning parties and a blue bloc on the right. In 2022, however, Frederiksen
broke with tradition by forming a broad centrist government. The current
coalition brings together her Social Democrats with the conservative
Venstre party and the liberal Moderates led by former Prime Minister Lars Løkke
Rasmussen.
Polls suggest the red and blue blocs are running almost even, with Rasmussen’s
Moderates poised to play kingmaker. Support for the red bloc currently
translates into 83 seats, while the blue bloc would get 80 — with 90 seats
needed for a parliamentary majority. With Frederiksen and Poulsen heading in
different directions politically, a repeat of the current coalition government
appears unlikely.
That means Rasmussen will likely decide which direction the country goes in if
the elections transpire as forecast. Frederiksen has warned that if Rasmussen
doesn’t decide to work with her, “then we will, with a very high possibility,
get a right-wing government in Denmark.”
Rasmussen has removed himself from contention to become the next prime minister,
and has offered instead to mediate the formation of the incoming government.
COCAINE-GATE
In the leadup to the vote, the blue bloc’s largest party, the Liberal
Alliance, sparked a media frenzy after leader Alex Vanopslagh — a candidate for
PM — admitted to using cocaine during his early days as party leader in the
mid-2010s. Some 42 percent of Danes said the 34-year-old politician’s drug use
had left them less able to see him as the country’s leader.
The parties in the blue bloc have thrown their support
behind Venstre’s Poulsen. But with the Liberal Alliance primed to win the most
votes on the right, Vanopslagh is insisting the party should be the one to lead
if Denmark ends up with a conservative government.
Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh arrives for a debate in Copenhagen on
Feb. 26, 2026. | Ida Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images
At the same time, he says, he won’t stand in Poulsen’s way. “It won’t be me who
ends up derailing a right-wing alliance after the election,” Vanopslagh said on
Sunday.
GREENLAND IN THE SPOTLIGHT
For all the domestic focus, Greenland still has a key role to play in Denmark’s
election — just not the one you might expect. Greenland and Denmark’s other
autonomous territory, the Faroe Islands, each hold two seats in the country’s
parliament, and those could prove decisive given how tight the race is.
That could prove a major obstacle for a right-leaning government. According
to Lasse Lindegaard, Greenland correspondent at public broadcaster DR, those who
represent the islands would be highly unlikely “to back a government that
includes or relies on support from the [far-right] Danish People’s Party,” whose
leader Morten Messerschmidt has dismissed the idea of Greenland’s
independence as “immature and absurd.”
Then there’s the Faroe Islands, which will hold their own parliamentary election
just two days after Denmark. Politicians in both self-governing territories are
questioning whether to scrap the requirement that they send representatives to
the Danish parliament.
“We should enter negotiations with Denmark on an equal partnership — and at that
point, we would no longer need our seats in the Danish parliament,” said Beinir
Johannesen, leader of the Fólkaflokkurin party and a likely contender for prime
minister of the Faroe Islands.
THE LOGISTICS
Polls in Denmark open at 8 a.m. on Tuesday and close at 8 p.m. The country uses
a proportional representation system, meaning the number of seats that parties
win is proportional to their share of the national vote. Exit polls will be
published shortly after the polls close, but given how close the race is a
definitive outcome may not be clear until late Tuesday evening after all votes
have been counted, or even early Wednesday morning.
Then comes the hard part: forming a government. With the two sides so closely
matched, the process will almost certainly take weeks. Denmark’s next government
is certain to be a coalition, but whether it commands majority or minority
support in the parliament remains to be seen.
The latter scenario has been the norm in Denmark for decades, but often produces
weak prime ministers who must constantly seek the support of other parties under
the threat of no-confidence motions.
BRUSSELS — The United States wants to engage in a meaningful dialogue with
Brussels on reducing European tech regulation, its Ambassador to the EU Andrew
Puzder told POLITICO.
The U.S. administration and its allies have been vocal critics of the EU’s tech
rules, saying they unfairly target American companies and hurt freedom of
speech. The European Commission has repeatedly denied such allegations, saying
it is merely trying to rein in Big Tech and protect the online space from
harmful behavior.
In an interview Monday, Puzder said he hoped that this week’s vote in the
European Parliament to advance last year’s transatlantic trade deal would set
the scene for talks to loosen constraints on business.
“I’ve had talks with individuals within the EU about moving this discussion
forward. I haven’t, as yet, experienced the concrete steps we need to make that
happen,” Puzder said. He was referring to the EU’s tech rulebook — and the
Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act in particular — that Washington
sees as barriers to trade.
“Hopefully, we’ll continue to talk. Once this trade agreement is approved, in
the spirit of moving forward with these non-tariff trade barriers, we’ll be able
to break down some of these walls,” he added.
Discussions are still in their very early stages and “there’s nothing formal,”
Puzder clarified. The next steps between Brussels and Washington should be
“diplomatic engagement followed by political engagement,” he added.
RECALIBRATION NEGOTIATION
The envoy’s comments follow a heated series of exchanges between senior American
and European officials over whether the EU’s tech rules should even be part of
the transatlantic trade discussion.
In November 2025, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tied a potential easing of
U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs to a “recalibration” by the EU of the bloc’s
digital regulations.
European Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera responded that tying
tariff relief to European tech rules amounted to “blackmail.”
Ribera, the EU’s top competition official, told POLITICO at the time that the EU
would not accept such attempts to strong-arm it on a topic that it considers to
be a matter of sovereignty. She is currently visiting the U.S. and is due to
meet tech industry bosses in San Francisco this week.
Transatlantic ties took another turn for the worse when the Donald Trump
administration in December barred former Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton
from traveling to the U.S. over his role in creating and implementing the EU’s
tech rules.
Puzder explained that Washington doesn’t think “that Europe shouldn’t have
regulation,” but that it shouldn’t be “regulating in such an extreme manner that
companies feel they can’t innovate — which is why … most of the tech startups in
Europe end up moving to Silicon Valley.”
European Commission Vice President Teresa Ribera attends a press conference in
Brussels on Feb. 25, 2026. | Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images
Responding, the European Commission stressed there is “continued engagement”
between the EU and the U.S.
“Executive Vice President [Henna] Virkkunen has held several meetings with U.S.
Representatives, both in Europe and in the U.S. At technical level, our teams
also engage on a continuous basis with their American counterparts,”
spokesperson Thomas Regnier said in a statement to POLITICO.
Virkunnen’s remit covers technology policy.
Before Trump’s return to the White House, the two sides held held a structured
dialogue under the auspices of the now-defunct EU-U.S. Trade and Technology
Council.
The occasional forum, launched by former U.S. President Joe Biden, sought to
establish a structured dialogue around regulatory cooperation. Yet in the view
of observers it under-delivered, failing for instance to resolve a long-running
steel dispute. The TTC has not met since Trump returned to the White House in
early 2025.
President Donald Trump said Monday the United States would pause “any and all
military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure” for
five days as Tehran and Washington engage in diplomatic negotiations.
In a social media post, Trump wrote that the U.S. and Iran have had “very good
and productive conversations” in the past two days and that the pause on strikes
against energy infrastructure came as a direct result of the “in depth,
detailed, and constructive conversations.” Trump added that the talks “will
continue throughout the week.”
The move indicates that a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict between the U.S.
and Iran could be in reach. It also followed increasing unease from the U.S.’s
allies in the Middle East and Europe over the conflict continuing to spiral.
Ferdinand Knapp contributed to this report. This is a breaking news story that
will be updated.
Many describe our geopolitical moment as one of instability, but that word feels
too weak for what we are living through. Some, like Mark Carney, argue that we
are facing a rupture: a break with assumptions that anchored the global economic
and political order for decades. Others, like Christine Lagarde, see a profound
transition, a shift toward a new configuration of power, technology and societal
expectations. Whichever perception we adopt, the implication is clear: leaders
can no longer rely on yesterday’s mental models, institutional routines or
governance templates.
Johanna Mair is the Director of the Florence School of Transnational Governance
at the European University Institute in Florence, where she leads education,
training and research on governance beyond the nation state.
Security, for example, is no longer a discrete policy field. It now reaches
deeply into energy systems, artificial intelligence, cyber governance, financial
stability and democratic resilience, all under conditions of strategic
competition and mistrust. At the same time, competitiveness cannot be reduced to
productivity metrics or short-term growth rates. It is about a society’s
capacity to innovate, regulate effectively and mobilize investment toward
long-term objectives — from the green and digital transitions to social
cohesion. This dense web of interdependence is where transnational governance is
practiced every day.
The European Union illustrates this reality vividly. No single member state can
build the capacity to manage these transformations on its own. EU institutions
and other regional bodies shape regulatory frameworks and collective responses;
corporations influence infrastructure and supply chains; financial institutions
direct capital flows; and civic actors respond to social fragmentation and
governance gaps. Effective leadership has become a systemic endeavour: it
requires coordination across these levels, while sustaining public legitimacy
and defending liberal democratic principles.
> Our mission is to teach and train current and future leaders, equipping them
> with the knowledge, skills and networks to tackle global challenges in ways
> that are both innovative and grounded in democratic values.
The Florence School of Transnational Governance (STG) at the European University
Institute was created precisely to respond to this need. Located in Florence and
embedded in a European institution founded by EU member states, the STG is a hub
where policymakers, business leaders, civil society, media and academia meet to
work on governance beyond national borders. Our mission is to teach and train
current and future leaders, equipping them with the knowledge, skills and
networks to tackle global challenges in ways that are both innovative and
grounded in democratic values.
What makes this mission distinctive is not only the topics we address, but also
how and with whom we address them. We see leadership development as a practice
embedded in real institutions, not a purely classroom-based exercise. People do
not come to Florence to observe transnational governance from a distance; they
come to practice it, test hypotheses and co-create solutions with peers who work
on the frontlines of policy and politics.
This philosophy underpins our portfolio of programs, from degree offerings to
executive education. With early career professionals, we focus on helping them
understand and shape governance beyond the state, whether in international
organizations, national administrations, the private sector or civil society. We
encourage them to see institutions not as static structures, but as arrangements
that can and must be strengthened and reformed to support a liberal, rules-based
order under stress.
At the same time, we devote significant attention to practitioners already in
positions of responsibility. Our Global Executive Master (GEM) is designed for
experienced professionals who cannot pause their careers, but recognize that the
governance landscape in which they operate has changed fundamentally. Developed
by the STG, the GEM convenes participants from EU institutions, national
administrations, international organizations, business and civil society —
professionals from a wide range of nationalities and institutional backgrounds,
reflecting the coalitions required to address complex problems.
The program is structured to fit the reality of leadership today. Delivered part
time over two years, it combines online learning with residential periods in
Florence and executive study visits in key policy centres. This blended format
allows participants to remain in full-time roles while advancing their
qualifications and networks, and it ensures that learning is continuously tested
against institutional realities rather than remaining an abstract exercise.
Participants specialize in tracks such as geopolitics and security, tech and
governance, economy and finance, or energy and climate. Alongside this subject
depth, they build capabilities more commonly associated with top executive
programs than traditional public policy degrees: change management,
negotiations, strategic communication, foresight and leadership under
uncertainty. These skills are essential for bridging policy design and
implementation — a gap that is increasingly visible as governments struggle to
deliver on ambitious agendas.
Executive study visits are a core element of this practice-oriented approach. In
a recent Brussels visit, GEM participants engaged with high-level speakers from
the European Commission, the European External Action Service, the Council, the
European Parliament, NATO, Business Europe, Fleishman Hillard and POLITICO
itself. Over several days, they discussed foreign and security policy,
industrial strategy, strategic foresight and the governance of emerging
technologies. These encounters do more than illustrate theory; they give
participants a chance to stress-test their assumptions, understand the
constraints facing decision-makers and build relationships across institutional
boundaries.
via EUI
Throughout the program, each participant develops a capstone project that
addresses a strategic challenge connected to a policy organization, often their
own employer. This ensures that executive education translates into
institutional impact: projects range from new regulatory approaches and
partnership models to internal reforms aimed at making organizations more agile
and resilient. At the same time, they help weave a durable transnational network
of practitioners who can work together beyond the programme.
Across our activities at the STG, a common thread runs through our work: a
commitment to defending and renewing the liberal order through concrete
practice. Addressing the rupture or transition we are living through requires
more than technical fixes. It demands leaders who can think systemically, act
across borders and design governance solutions that are both unconventional and
democratically legitimate.
> Across our activities at the STG, a common thread runs through our work: a
> commitment to defending and renewing the liberal order through concrete
> practice.
In a period defined by systemic risk and strategic competition, leadership
development cannot remain sectoral or reactive. It must be interdisciplinary,
practice-oriented and anchored in real policy environments. At the Florence
School of Transnational Governance, we aim to create precisely this kind of
learning community — one where students, fellows and executives work side by
side to reimagine how institutions can respond to global challenges. For
policymakers and professionals who recognize themselves in this moment of
rupture, our programs — including the GEM — offer a space to step back, learn
with peers and return to their institutions better equipped to lead change. The
task is urgent, but it is also an opportunity: by investing in transnational
governance education today, we can help lay the foundations for a more resilient
and inclusive order tomorrow.
Moscow proposed a quid pro quo to the U.S. under which the Kremlin would stop
sharing intelligence information with Iran, such as the precise coordinates of
U.S. military assets in the Middle East, if Washington ceased supplying Ukraine
with intel about Russia.
Two people familiar with the U.S.-Russia negotiations said that such a proposal
was made by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev to Trump administration envoys Steve
Witkoff and Jared Kushner during their meeting last week in Miami.
The U.S. rejected the proposal, the people added. They, like all other officials
cited in this article, were granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the
discussions.
Nevertheless, the sheer existence of such a proposal has sparked concern among
European diplomats, who worry Moscow is trying to drive a wedge between Europe
and the U.S. at a critical moment for transatlantic relations.
U.S. President Donald Trump has voiced anger over the refusal of allies to send
warships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, he lambasted his NATO allies as
“COWARDS“ and said: “we will REMEMBER!”
The White House declined to comment. The Russian Embassy in Washington did not
respond to a request for comment.
One EU diplomat called the Russian proposal “outrageous.” The suggested deal is
likely to fuel growing suspicions in Europe that the Witkoff-Dmitriev meetings
are not delivering concrete progress toward a peace agreement in Ukraine, but
are instead seen by Moscow as a chance to lure Washington into a deal between
the two powers that leaves Europe on the sidelines.
On Thursday, the Kremlin said that the U.S.-mediated Ukraine peace talks were
“on hold.”
Russia has made various proposals about Iran to the U.S., which has rejected
them all, another person familiar with the discussions said. This person said
the U.S. also rejected a proposal to move Iran’s enriched uranium to Russia,
which was first reported by Axios.
Russia has expanded intelligence-sharing and military cooperation with Iran
since the war started, a person briefed on the intelligence said. The Wall
Street Journal first reported the increase and wrote that Moscow is providing
satellite imagery and drone technology to help Tehran target U.S. forces in the
region. The Kremlin called that report “fake news.”
Trump hinted at a link between the intelligence-sharing with Iran and Ukraine
during a recent interview with Fox News, saying that Russian President Vladimir
Putin “might be helping them [Iran] a little bit, yeah, I guess, and he probably
thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right?”
The U.S. continues to share intelligence with Ukraine, even as it has reduced
other support. Washington briefly paused the exchanges last year after a
disastrous Oval Office meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy. That abrupt halt to U.S. intelligence sharing triggered a chaotic
scramble among allies and exposed deep tensions in the partnership with Kyiv.
One European diplomat sought to downplay the risk of the Russian proposal,
noting that French President Emmanuel Macron had said in January that
“two-thirds” of military intelligence for Ukraine is now provided by France.
Still, intelligence-sharing remains a last crucial pillar of American support
for Ukraine after the Trump administration stopped most of its financial and
military aid for Kyiv last year. Washington is still delivering weapons to
Ukraine but under a NATO-led program where allies pay the U.S. for arms.
Deliveries of critical air defense munitions, however, are under strain amid the
U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
Most recently, the Trump administration decided to ease sanctions on Russian oil
to alleviate pressure on oil markets, causing strong concern and criticism from
European leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Hans von der Burchard reported from Berlin, Felicia Schwartz and Diana Nerozzi
from Washington and Jacopo Barigazzi from Brussels.
LONDON — Britain will reduce its aid sent to Africa by more than half, as the
government unveils the impact of steep cuts to development assistance for
countries across the world.
On Thursday the Foreign Office revealed the next three years of its overseas
development spending, giving MPs and the public the first look at the impact of
Labour’s decision to gut Britain’s aid budget in order to fund an increase in
defense spending.
Government figures show that the value of Britain’s programs in Africa will fall
by 56 percent from the £1.5 billion in 2024/25 when Labour took office to £677
million in 2028/9. It follows the move to reduce aid spending from 0.5 to 0.3
percent of gross national income.
However, the government did not release the details of the funding for specific
countries, giving Britain’s ambassadors and diplomats time to deliver the news
personally to their counterparts across the world ahead of any potential
backlash from allies.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told MPs that affected countries want Britain
“to be an investor, not just a donor” and “want to attract finance, not be
dependent on aid,” as she pointed to money her department had committed to
development banks and funds which will help Africa raise money.
The decision shows a substantial shift in the government’s focus, moving away
from direct assistance for countries, and funneling much of the remaining money
into international organizations and private finance initiatives.
Chi Onwurah, chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group for Africa, told
POLITICO that she was “dismayed at the level and extent of the cuts to
investment in Africa and the impact it will have particularly on health and
economic development.”
She added: “I hope the government recognizes that security of the British people
is not increased by insecurity in Africa and increased migration from Africa,
quite the opposite.”
Ian Mitchell from the Center for Global Development think tank noted the move
was “a remarkable step back from Africa by the U.K.”
NEW PRIORITIES
Announcing the cuts in the House of Commons, Cooper stressed that the decision
to reduce the aid budget had been “hugely difficult,” pointing to similar moves
by allies such as France and Germany following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s
decision to dramatically shrink America’s aid programs after taking office in
January 2025.
She insisted that it was still “part of our moral purpose” to tackle global
disease and hunger, reiterating Labour’s ambition to work towards “a world free
from extreme poverty on a livable planet.”
Cooper set out three new priorities for Britain’s remaining budget: funding for
unstable countries with conflict and humanitarian disasters, funneling money
into “proven” global partnerships such as vaccine organizations, and a focus on
women and girls, pledging that these will be at the core of 90 percent of
Britain’s bilateral aid programs by 2030.
A box with the Ukrainian flag on it awaits collection in Peterborough, U.K. on
March 10, 2022. | Martin Pope/Getty Images
Only three recipients will see their aid spending fully protected: Ukraine, the
Palestinian territories and Sudan. Lebanon will also see its funding protected
for another year. All bilateral funding for G20 countries will end.
Despite the government’s stated priorities, the scale of the cuts mean that even
the areas it is seeking to protect will not be protected fully.
An impact assessment — which was so stark that ministers claimed they had to
rethink some of the cuts in order to better protect focus areas such as
contraception — published alongside the announcement found that there will
likely be an end to programs in Malawi where 250,000 young people will lose
access to family planning, and 20,000 children risk dropping out of school.
“These steep cuts will impact the most marginalized and left behind
communities,” said Romilly Greenhill, CEO of Bond, the U.K. network for NGOs,
adding: “The U.K. is turning its back on the communities that need support the
most.”
Last-minute negotiations did see some areas protected from more severe cuts,
with the BBC World Service seeing a funding boost, the British Council set to
receive an uplift amid its financial struggles, and the Independent Commission
for Aid Impact (ICAI) — the aid spending watchdog that had been at risk of being
axed — continuing to operate with a 40 percent budget cut.
GREEN THREAT
Though the move will not require legislation to be confirmed — after Prime
Minister Keir Starmer successfully got the move past his MPs last year — MPs
inside his party and out have lamented the impact of the cuts, amid the ongoing
threat to Labour’s left from a resurgent Green Party under new leader Zack
Polanski.
Labour MP Becky Cooper, chair of the APPG on global health and security said
that her party “is, and always has been, a party of internationalism” but
today’s plans would “put Britain and the world at risk.”
Sarah Champion, another Labour MP who chairs the House of Commons international
development committee said that the announcement confirmed that there “will be
no winners from unrelenting U.K. aid cuts, just different degrees of losers,”
creating a “desperately bleak” picture for the world’s most vulnerable. “These
cuts do not aid our defense, they make the whole world more vulnerable,” she
added.
Her Labour colleague Gareth Thomas, a former development minister, added: “In an
already unsafe world, cutting aid risks alienating key allies and will make
improving children’s health and education in Commonwealth countries more
difficult.”
The announcement may give fresh ammunition to the Greens ahead of May’s local
elections, where the party is eyeing up one of its best nights in local
government amid a collapse in support for Labour among Britain’s young,
progressive, and Muslim voters.
Reacting to the news that Britain will cut its aid to developing countries aimed
at combatting climate change, Polanski said: “Appalling and just unbelievably
short-sighted. Our security here in the U.K. relies on action around the world
to tackle the climate crisis.”
Talks between Russia and Ukraine on ending their war have stalled, the Kremlin
said, appearing to confirm Kyiv’s fears that the war in Iran could derail the
peace process.
“The three-way group is on hold,” Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s spokesperson, told the Izvestia newspaper Thursday, referring to
U.S.-mediated negotiations between the two sides.
He added, however, that the economic cooperation talks happening in parallel
between Moscow and Washington are still ongoing. The Kremlin’s envoy Kirill
Dmitriev has previously suggested the two sides were eyeing joint projects worth
up to $14 trillion. Russia has also long been lobbying for the United States to
lift economic sanctions.
Negotiations on prisoner swaps would also continue, Peskov said.
He did not provide a reason for why the peace negotiations, which U.S. President
Donald Trump launched soon after he entered the White House, have hit a
roadblock.
The last time the three parties met was in February in Geneva. A new round of
talks scheduled for March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed indefinitely, days after
the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran, which has spilled over into the
wider region.
In an interview with the BBC earlier this week, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy said he had a “very bad feeling” about the effect of the events in
Iran on the war in Ukraine.
Negotiations, he said, were “constantly being postponed. There is one reason:
[the] war in Iran.”
The Ukrainian president was backed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer who,
after hosting Zelenskyy in London earlier this week, cautioned that, as the
conflict in Iran and the Middle East unfolds, “we can’t lose focus on what’s
going on in Ukraine and the need for our support.”
Russia, meanwhile, is already reaping some benefits from the Iran crisis, as
higher oil prices are boosting its energy revenues while shifting international
attention away from its onslaught against Ukraine.
BRUSSELS — An EU summit once billed as a chance to boost the bloc’s economy is
now a full-blown stress test. Leaders gathering Thursday face a combustible
agenda: Ukraine’s financial survival, Middle East escalation, transatlantic
tensions, and deep internal rifts over energy and climate policy.
Thursday’s meeting has been dramatically reshaped in recent days by the
U.S.-Israeli war in Iran and a standoff with Hungary over a €90 billion lifeline
for Kyiv — turning what had been meant to be a forward-looking discussion into a
scramble to manage multiple crises at once.
Leaders will still try to push ahead on plans to strengthen Europe’s
competitiveness, from deepening the single market to easing the burden on
businesses. But those longer-term ambitions risk being overshadowed by more
immediate geopolitical fires, alongside intense discussions on continent’s
energy, defense and migration policies, according to a draft version of the
post-summit joint statement obtained by POLITICO.
Expect a packed — and likely fractious — day in Brussels. Here’s POLITICO’s
cheat sheet of the five biggest clashes to look out for at the European Council.
THE €90B QUESTION: HUNGARY VS. EVERYONE
A €90 billion lifeline for Ukraine — which will determine Kyiv’s ability to
continue defending itself against Russian aggression — hangs on whether Hungary
lifts its veto.
EU leaders agreed in December to provide the funding. But Hungarian Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán later reneged and blocked the deal over a dispute with
Ukraine about a damaged pipeline carrying Russian oil to Central Europe.
Budapest has accused Kyiv of trying to engineer an energy crisis in Hungary by
cutting off Russian oil supplies and says it won’t approve the cash disbursement
until flows resume. The European Commission said Tuesday it had offered to help
repair the pipeline and that Ukraine had accepted, raising hopes of a
breakthrough.
The move could prompt Hungary to lift its veto, one diplomat familiar with
Budapest’s thinking said, speaking on condition of anonymity like others in this
article to discuss sensitive negotiations. But Orbán struck a defiant tone in a
video posted after the Commission’s announcement, saying: “If there is no oil,
there is no money.”
That leaves him isolated from almost all other leaders, aside from Slovakia’s
Robert Fico. “The behavior from Hungary is a new low,” Sweden’s Europe Minister
Jessica Rosencrantz told POLITICO ahead of the meeting.
Another diplomat said that “if we fail on the loan, [Ukrainian leader Volodymyr]
Zelenskyy will rightly be furious.” The latest draft conclusions still point to
disbursement by early April — a timeline leaders will be endeavoring to rescue
in their negotiations.
HORMUZ DILEMMA: IRAN’S THREATS VS. A RELUCTANT EUROPE
Tehran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz — a vital oil transit point —
have jacked up the global price of oil and forced Europe to weigh whether to get
involved.
One idea was to expand the mandate of the EU’s Middle East naval mission,
Aspides, to allow European warships to patrol the waterway. That was quickly
ruled out by the bloc’s foreign ministers on Monday.
“Nobody wants to go actively in this war,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas,
said after the foreign envoys met.
Instead, leaders will call for the reinforcement of existing naval missions,
Aspides and Atalanta, with “more assets” (read: ships) — while stopping short of
extending their reach to Hormuz, according to the draft summit conclusions. The
text stresses that operations must remain “in line with their respective
mandates.”
A diplomat from the Gulf region said they were watching closely but did not
expect any major shift from EU leaders, such as expanding the Aspides mandate or
launching joint operations with third countries.
TRANSATLANTIC TREMORS: TRUMP VS. EUROPEAN CAPITALS
Europe’s refusal to step in around the Strait of Hormuz has angered U.S.
President Donald Trump, who said it would be “very bad for the future of NATO”
if EU countries failed to act.
That frustration is only growing. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said he had
spoken to Trump about Europe’s unwillingness to provide assets to keep the
strait open and had “never heard him so angry in my life.”
The flare-up comes with EU-U.S. ties already under strain. Spain has openly
defied Trump over the Iran conflict, refusing to allow the U.S. to use its bases
and drawing threats of trade retaliation from Washington. French President
Emmanuel Macron has stepped in to back Madrid and signal European solidarity,
while other leaders have taken a more cautious or mixed line on how far to push
back.
Trump may not be on the formal agenda, but his pressure will loom over the
summit — and sharpen already fraught debates over defense, trade and Europe’s
reliance on the U.S.
ETS BRAWL: ITALY, POLAND AND OTHERS VS. THE COMMISSION
A major brawl is brewing over the EU’s Emissions Trading System between a cadre
of member countries and the EU’s executive.
Ten EU member countries sent a letter to the Commission ahead of Thursday’s
summit asking to speed up a planned review of the ETS, a cornerstone
of the bloc’s climate policy that forces big polluters to cough up.
Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Hungary, Italy,
Bulgaria, Austria and Croatia are urging the EU executive to reexamine the
scheme by the end of May at the latest, arguing it harms their industries and is
contributing to rising energy prices.
But not everyone agrees, with two EU officials from
ETS-supporting countries saying the cap-and-trade system must remain in place.
The first official argued it is not contributing to the energy crisis and
is actually helping Europe’s economy, with its revenues needed for the green
transition.
On the topic of energy, the Commission’s proposed gas price cap is also likely
to be raised, though not all countries are likely to get on board with that
either, according to a senior German government official. According to the draft
conclusions, EU leaders will instruct the Commission to “present without delay a
toolbox of targeted temporary measures” to bring down energy prices.
COMPETITIVENESS, ANYONE? EU VS. ITSELF
Despite the crises crowding the agenda, leaders will still try to push forward
plans to revive Europe’s economy, building on talks at a February summit at
Alden Biesen in Belgium.
Most of the proposals fall under the “One Europe, One Market” push to deepen the
single market — easing the movement of goods, services, capital and people
across the bloc. The draft conclusions say leaders will back new corporate
rules, dubbed “EU Inc.,” to help startups scale across borders, as well as a
“simple, unified and voluntary e-declaration system” to make it easier to work
across countries.
The aim is to move from talk to delivery, with concrete steps and deadlines,
another EU diplomat said. But while there is broad agreement on the need for
reform, divisions persist over whether EU energy and climate policies —
particularly the Emissions Trading System — are holding back growth.
That split, with Central, Eastern and Southern European countries pushing for
changes and others, including the Nordics, resisting, will likely be the main
battleground on competitiveness.
Nick Vinocur contributed reporting.
BRUSSELS — The Trump administration has reassured the EU’s top trade lawmaker
that it plans to shorten a list of items containing steel that are subject to
high U.S. tariffs, in a concession that could finally persuade the European
Parliament to back last year’s transatlantic trade deal.
The offer came in a call between U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer with
Bernd Lange, the chair of the European Parliament’s Trade Committee. It has
helped win the support of Lange’s fellow socialists, enabling a key committee
vote to go ahead on Thursday.
But the fix is not yet fully in, with caucus leaders still to debate exactly
when to schedule a final plenary vote on the accord reached at President Donald
Trump’s Turnberry golf club in Scotland last July.
One sticking point has been the subsequent addition by Washington of hundreds of
items that contain steel — from cranes to furniture — to a list of products
subject to a 50 percent U.S. tariff. That, in the view of the Europeans,
violates the spirit of the Turnberry accord.
In their call last Saturday, Greer assured Lange that many of these items would
go, said the German MEP, who is also steering the enabling legislation on the
deal.
“Not everything, but a lot of them,” Lange told POLITICO’s Morning Trade
newsletter, saying that there was “some movement” on that front.
The enabling legislation, which would remove tariffs on U.S. industrial goods,
has been stalled for weeks in the EU chamber, as lawmakers balked at approving a
deal following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last month to strike down
President Donald Trump’s original tariffs.
The Turnberry deal had set an “all-inclusive” tariff of 15 percent on most
goods. Trump quickly replaced that with a temporary 10 percent global duty.
With Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, cut off all trade with Spain, and his
military campaign against Iran further undermining any vestigial confidence on
the part of EU lawmakers that he will abide by his commitments, the path to
final approval of the Turnberry accord is both rocky and narrow.
NOT THE END OF THE ROAD
The next hurdle is holding a final plenary vote on the Turnberry deal, with
political groups in the European Parliament still divided.
Lange’s Socialists & Democrats, the Left, Greens and Renew are in favor of
scheduling it in April, arguing they still require clarity from Washington. The
center-right, pro-business European People’s Party (EPP) is pushing to hold it
next week, as currently scheduled.
A decision is expected this week. Political group chairs representing a majority
of MEPs would be needed to change the plenary agenda.
“We need to finish this in March because then we would have much more certainty
for everything. We have promises from the White House on steel and aluminum
derivatives,” said Željana Zovko, the EPP top negotiator on the file.
Lange is meanwhile due to fly — after the Trade Committee vote on Thursday — to
Washington and is expected to meet with Greer.
Only after the text is approved by the plenary can the European Parliament enter
negotiations with EU capitals and the European Commission on a compromise to
finally implement the deal.
BEYOND EU
People close to the White House say officials have spent weeks exploring ways to
streamline how the U.S. steel tariffs apply to downstream products that hit the
EU and other trading partners, following industry pushback after the list of
steel and aluminum derivatives expanded to cover hundreds of items last year.
The exchange between Greer and Lange marks the clearest signal yet that the
administration may adjust its approach to derivatives tariffs — changes that
could extend well beyond the EU.
But the Trump administration has not publicly confirmed any changes, or
clarified what that plan would entail.
“We are always examining ways to ensure our sectoral tariffs are most
effectively safeguarding our country’s national and economic security, but
unless announced by the Administration, discussion about tariff or derivative
adjustments is baseless speculation,” said a White House official.
Camille Gijs reported from Brussels and Ari Hawkins reported from Washington.
Max Griera contributed to this report.