LONDON — Donald Trump loves to make deals, and one of his closest confidants in Europe believes a pact might be within reach that could help solve both the Gulf oil crisis and the war in Ukraine in one go.  Finland’s President Alexander Stubb says he can see real potential in offering Trump what he wants: European military support to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial oil shipping route that Iran has effectively blockaded in response to American and Israeli bombing.  Europe’s condition for providing such assistance? That the U.S. president delivers all the help Ukraine needs to reach an acceptable peace deal with Russia.  The idea of bargaining with Trump was put to Stubb during a question-and-answer session at London’s Chatham House think tank on Tuesday. The Finnish leader seemed surprised — and impressed. “I think it’s a really good idea,” he said, adding after a pause: “No, I think it’s actually a really good idea.” Stubb said he’d consider it further and discuss options with his team.  Finland itself doesn’t have any assets to contribute to securing the Strait of Hormuz, and it’s still far from clear what role European forces could play there. But the question of how to bolster Ukraine — and get Trump on board — is an urgent one for Europe.  Officials — including Stubb — fear the longer Trump’s war against Iran continues, the more it could constrain Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces. Soaring global energy prices — and Washington’s decision to loosen sanctions on Russia’s oil industry — will significantly boost Vladimir Putin’s income from Russian fossil fuel sales. At the same time, American forces are using hundreds of interceptor missiles to shoot down Iranian rockets and drones, leaving fewer available for Ukraine. Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities rely on air defenses for protection against an ongoing barrage of ballistic missiles from Russia.  And Trump has again recently pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree a deal with Putin, without clarifying what — if any — security guarantees America would provide to keep the peace. Stubb told his audience he feared that peace talks in Ukraine are fast approaching a moment of truth, which could force Kyiv to accept a a bad settlement that involves ceding territory to Putin. The negotiations could even collapse, leaving Europe on the hook — without American help — obliging European powers to step in to help Ukraine with more intelligence, weapons and other support, he said.  Stubb said he takes a realistic view of how much he is able to influence Trump, after the two bonded over a seven-hour golf and lunch meeting last year. Finland has just bought 64 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. and hosts thousands of American troops training in Arctic conditions. “I have no illusions about who can convince President Trump on anything,” Stubb said. “If I get one idea out of 10 in on Ukraine, I think it’s good.” The implications of the war in Iran are “negative” for Ukraine, mainly because the price of oil favors Russia’s war machinery, Stubb said. “The Russian economy was actually doing extremely badly a couple of weeks back, now it’s bouncing back.” It’s also taking air defense systems away from where they are needed in Ukraine.  Finally, it has shifted the focus from the peace talks on Ukraine. “I hope the peace negotiations on Ukraine don’t collapse like the negotiations between Iran and the U.S. did,” Stubb said. “But time will tell.” 

STRASBOURG — European and American officials are scrambling to avoid a return to their transatlantic trade war, amid increasing frustration in Washington over the EU’s failure to implement the transatlantic trade deal they agreed last summer. A trio of senior European lawmakers will travel to Washington next week, hoping to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who accuses the EU of implementing “zero percent” of the trade accord reached at President Donald Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland last July 27. The mission to the U.S. comes amid of flurry of diplomatic contacts between EU and U.S. officials ahead of a high-stakes vote by European lawmakers expected on March 26 that will determine whether Brussels can implement last year’s accord. That vote is at risk of being delayed, yet again, after a series of previous hold ups. U.S. patience is wearing thin, raising the prospect that the tariff conflict could flare up again. “The EU has done approximately zero percent of what they were supposed to do for their trade deal with us. We quickly after the Turnberry deal came into compliance with that deal,” Greer said during a press call on Wednesday.  “The European Union has had their legislation for their tariffs pending for many, many, many, many months,” he added.  Top EU parliamentary negotiators will meet on March 17 to decide whether to push back their vote again. The Turnberry agreement is widely seen in Europe as a one-sided pact. In it, the EU accepted a 15 percent U.S. tariff on most exports, while itself pledging to scrap all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods. Many EU lawmakers fear that Trump could yet renege on the deal to make more tariff threats, as he has done over Greenland and Spain.  In the Parliament, the center-right European People’s Party — the political family of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — wants to see the deal approved to avoid retaliation by Trump and bring stability to businesses.  The Socialists & Democrats, liberals and Greens have voted against moving forward, however, after balking at the U.S. president’s latest tariff menaces against Spain, his strikes on Iran and his threats to stage a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. CRACKS IN TRUST Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sought to reassure the Europeans that the U.S. will stick by the deal. Yet skepticism persists. “How can we get clarity with Trump [who] doesn’t respect the deals? I think that, for now, what we would need is some public statement on the willingness to respect the deal,” Brando Benifei, an Italian Socialist who is the Parliament’s point person for relations with the U.S., said on Tuesday.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sought to reassure the Europeans that the U.S. will stick by the deal. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Benifei will be one of the three MEPs traveling to meet Greer. The others are Bernd Lange, the German Social Democrat who chairs the European Parliament’s trade committee, and Polish center-right lawmaker Michał Szczerba, who sits on the foreign and security committees. They hope to meet Greer on March 20, but the EU lawmakers could already have delayed the vote by then. “I hope that we can find some common ground,” Lange said. Karin Karlsbro, a Swedish liberal who is skeptical on the trade pact, is also expected to meet with representatives of the U.S. mission to the EU, her office said. And Željana Zovko, the top negotiator on the file from the EPP, the biggest grouping in Parliament, will meet with U.S. Ambassador Andrew Puzder on Monday, she told POLITICO. Despite the worries from the U.S. side, Anna Cavazzini, the lead lawmaker on the file in the Greens group who is spearheading opposition to the deal, said she had not been contacted by the Americans. UNRELIABLE PARTNER Despite Bessent’s pledge on the Turnberry pact, the EU remains wary over what Trump will do next. The U.S. has, only this week, launched new investigations into unfair trade practices that could trigger more tariffs against the EU. That has redoubled concerns in Brussels that Trump plans to plow on with his aggressive trade agenda against Europe, undeterred by a Supreme Court ruling last month that substantially overturned his original tariff agenda. On top of the latest investigations, people close to the file say the White House will not shy away from imposing tariffs on national security grounds, such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Washington’s double-sided approach is not lost on European lawmakers.  “‘We’ll stick to the deal.’ And less than 24 hours later, they are already threatening us with new tariffs. It is impossible to work with the Trump administration like this,” the Socialist group’s vice president for trade policy, Kathleen Van Brempt, said in a post on X Thursday.  The EPP’s top trade lawmaker, Jörgen Warborn, last week pitched a “sunrise clause,” meaning the deal would only finally kick in if Washington upheld its side of the bargain. “That would give clarity because what the sunrise clause is doing, it’s making sure that the deal doesn’t kick in before it is confirmed that all the elements of the deal are upheld,” Warborn told POLITICO on Tuesday. Željana Zovko, the top negotiator on the file from the EPP, the biggest grouping in Parliament, will meet with U.S. Ambassador Andrew Puzder on Monday, she told POLITICO. | Martin Bertrand/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images Benifei said the sunrise clause could enable his group to support the pact. Still, he explained, this would require provisions allowing the Commission not to implement the EU-U.S. agreement until Washington stops threatening the EU’s digital rules, and until the U.S. lowers tariffs on EU steel derivatives. “We are not there,” he said, expressing skepticism that the EPP would be willing to place such tough demands on the Commission. “They [EPP lawmakers] are a bit worried about the situation that is not moving,” he said. “I need to see what they are actually ready to do, because to be frank, my impression is that they are a bit in the mood [of saying] …‘Just let’s not make Trump angry.’” Carlo Martuscelli contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — The EU will respond “firmly and proportionately” to any breach of its trade deal with the U.S. reached last year, European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said Thursday. Gill was responding to probes into unfair trade practices launched by the U.S. overnight against the EU and other countries. The broad-spectrum investigations could result in the imposition of new tariffs, raising concerns in Brussels that this would breach the terms of the deal struck at President Donald Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. “We have not received any indication that the U.S. administration intends to deviate from those commitments,” Gill told a press conference. He added that the Commission would reach out to its U.S. counterparts to clarify how the investigations would affect the Turnberry deal. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that his department was looking into whether countries’ policies are fueling excess manufacturing capacity — producing far more goods than demand supports — which officials say can flood global markets and squeeze U.S. manufacturers. The so-called Section 301 probes come after the U.S. Supreme Court last month struck down Trump’s original wide-ranging tariffs. The White House subsequently imposed blanket 10 percent tariffs in the interim as it works to enact new duties. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week gave private assurances to EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič that the U.S. intends to stick to the transatlantic trade deal, which sets a tariff ceiling of no higher than 15 percent on most EU exports.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Der Iran-Krieg droht auch die deutsche Wirtschaft mit voller Wucht zu erreichen. Die Preise für Energie und Logistik gehen nach oben, und die Politik in Berlin muss sich fragen: Wie resilient ist der Standort gegen diesen neuen globalen Schock? Joana Lehner und Jürgen Klöckner analysieren, welche Krisenmechanismen jetzt wirklich greifen und warum das neue Heizungsgesetz der Bundesregierung plötzlich zum geopolitischen Risiko wird. Im Policy Talk spricht Martin Kröger, Hauptgeschäftsführer des Verbandes Deutscher Reeder, über die dramatische Lage in der Straße von Hormus. Seit Beginn der Offensive ist die wichtigste Meerenge der Welt faktisch unpassierbar. Kröger erklärt, warum deutsche Schiffe im Persischen Golf festsitzen, wie die Versorgung der Crews gesichert wird und warum staatliche Versicherungsgarantien, wie sie von Donald Trump ins Spiel gebracht wurden, allein keine Lösung für ein mögliches globales Logistik-Chaos sind. Außerdem ist Romanus Otte vom „⁠POLITICO Pro“-Newsletter „Industrie und Handel“⁠ zu Gast in „Off the Record“. Er hat Wirtschaftsministerin Katherina Reiche bei Veranstaltungen in Halle und München beobachtet. Romanus ordnet ein, wie sich Reiche beim Krisenmanagement schlägt, warum sie dabei ihre Komfortzone verlassen muss und wie ihr Auftreten insgesamt bei Vertretern aus Industrie und Handwerk ankommt. „Power & Policy“ zeigt jede Woche, wo und wie die Entscheidungen in der Wirtschaftspolitik fallen. ⁠Jürgen Klöckner⁠ und ⁠Joana Lehner⁠ von POLITICO sprechen mit Top-Entscheidern und liefern Off-the-Record-Einblicke aus der Redaktion und Machtzentren. Präzise Analysen, lange bevor Gesetze beschlossen sind. Der Podcast für alle in Wirtschaft und Politik, die einen Wissensvorsprung brauchen — immer donnerstags. Für Policy-Profis: Abonnieren und die Pro-Newsletter ⁠Industrie & Handel⁠, ⁠Energie & Klima ⁠und ⁠Gesundheit⁠. Jetzt kostenlos testen. Fragen und Feedback gern an ⁠powerandpolicy@politico.eu⁠ **(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht von Fuchs & Cie.: Bei Fuchs & Cie. zählen Leistung und Erfolg. Im Interesse unserer Klienten und ihrer Themen. Deswegen jetzt bewerben. Gerne mit einem Hintergrund aus den Bereichen Defence, Finance, Data oder Energy. Bewerbung per Mail an karriere@fuchs-cie.de. Wir verstärken unsere Teams in Berlin, München und Frankfurt.** POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

PARIS — The European Union should stop raging at Donald Trump and learn its lessons from the U.S. president’s saber-rattling on tariffs, France’s trade minister told POLITICO. “The European Union, the European countries, should not get angry at America’s positions, but should try to better understand America’s logic — which, by the way, began well before Donald Trump,” Nicolas Forissier said in an interview on Thursday.  Forissier, who said riding a Harley-Davidson motorbike down the iconic Chicago-to-California Route 66 highway had given him a feel for American culture, argued Trump’s approach should motivate the EU to fix its own shortcomings.  The U.S. president’s erratic trade policy, along with a glut of Chinese exports, has triggered deeper reflection within the 27-nation bloc about how to regain industrial competitiveness — including by diversifying trade partners, cutting red tape for businesses, and rewriting public procurement rules to include a “Made in Europe” preference.  “It’s also a way of asking us to take responsibility, to step out of our comfort zone. Before criticizing or getting angry at each other, we need to look at what we haven’t done well and where we can improve,” the 65-year-old minister added. The U.S. Supreme Court last week struck down the “reciprocal tariffs” that had underpinned the trade deal Trump struck with the EU at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland last July. Despite the ruling, the European Commission wants to finalize ratification of the deal, which is now stuck in the European Parliament. Forissier convened G7 trade ministers for a virtual call on Monday, at which U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made it clear that Washington was aiming to reinstate the tariffs that were struck down via other legal tools. Greer has also said that the U.S. wants to stick to the terms of deals it has already struck. “The European Parliament’s wait-and-see approach and suspension of the vote is quite logical,” Forissier said. “It’s now up to the Americans to clarify things, to calm things down. I don’t think it’s in the United States’ interest to take a stance of high tariffs, toughening measures.” HOLDING THE (15 PERCENT) LINE Forissier, a veteran who hails from the conservative Les Républicains party, said the EU should focus on strengthening its own foundations, also by building a real capital markets union. “That may also enable us to provide concrete answers to the questions raised by Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta. Because we know full well that the European Union really needs to make a huge investment effort, particularly in innovation,” Forissier said, referring to landmark strategy recommendations from the two former Italian PMs.  “Basically, the Americans are doing us a favor by forcing us to take action, make decisions, and step outside our comfort zones or areas of uncertainty that suited us just fine.” Forissier’s comments were a departure from the usually more hawkish French position toward Washington. As recently as January, President Emmanuel Macron called for the EU to use its strongest trade weapon in response to Trump’s threats to annex Greenland.  France has been the fiercest supporter of making the EU economically less dependent on the rest of the world, with Macron for years pushing for more public investment in the EU economy and for more trade defense and “Made in Europe” measures to ensure European firms can compete with their Asian and U.S. rivals.  The trade minister stressed that the deal with Washington — which foresees an “all-inclusive” tariff of 15 percent on most EU exports and exempts aircraft and pharmaceuticals — should remain the baseline of the EU’s relationship to Washington.  He urged, however, that Brussels keep negotiating further exemptions — something the U.S. has so far been reluctant to do given the EU still hasn’t completed its side of the bargain on the deal struck last July at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. Legislation to scrap duties on imports of U.S. industrial goods remains stuck in the European Parliament. “I would like us not simply to revert to the Turnberry agreement. We must also continue the process, ensure that the conversation is constructive, and move forward,” he said.  “Frankly, is it in the interest of American consumers to have a 15 percent tariff on French spirits?”

Ha dell’incredibile quanto accaduto ad Andrea Pavan, golfista due volte vincitore nel DP World Tour, nel corso del South African Open di questa settimana. L’italiano è precipitato nel vano di un ascensore dopo averlo chiamato al proprio piano: le porte si sono aperte regolarmente, ma la cabina non era presente. Il giocatore è così caduto per due piani, riportando ferite gravissime. Non sarebbe però in pericolo di vita. Le prime informazioni diffuse indicano che, pur non essendo oggi in pericolo di vita, Andrea Pavan si è sottoposto a un delicatissimo intervento chirurgico ed è rimasto per sei ore in sala operatoria. Adesso sono attesi aggiornamenti ufficiali utili a chiarire con maggiore precisione la dinamica dell’incidente e le sue condizioni di salute, ma il golfista è vigile e muove le gambe. L’incidente è avvenuto in un condominio dove alloggiano diversi giocatori, lontano dallo Stellenbosch Golf Club, campo che ospita il torneo. Come riportato da Il Messaggero, Pavan era in ritardo per recarsi al campo. Dopo essersi accorto di aver dimenticato le chiavi dell’armadietto dello spogliatoio, è tornato di fretta in camera per prenderle. Poi però ha chiamato l’ascensore per riscendere e quando le porte si sono aperte è entrato di corsa, non accorgendosi dell’assenza della cabina. Un incidente assurdo, sul quale ovviamente occorrerà fare piena chiarezza soprattutto per quanto riguarda la questione sicurezza dell’impianto. Un portavoce del DP World Tour ha confermato che Pavan “si è ritirato a causa di un infortunio” dal South African Open, ma non ha potuto dare ulteriori dettagli “per motivi di riservatezza medica”. CHI È ANDREA PAVAN Nato a Roma il 27 aprile 1989, Pavan è uno dei golfisti italiani che ha ottenuto i migliori risultati negli ultimi anni, impegnato sul DP World Tour. Pavan ha infatti conquistato due vittorie nel massimo circuito europeo, vincendo sia al D+D Real Czech Masters nel 2018, sia al BMW International Open nel 2019. Vittorie che gli hanno consentito anche l’ingresso in top 100, confermandosi tra i migliori giocatori del panorama mondiale. Prima di affermarsi sul DP World Tour, si era già messo in evidenza nel Challenge Tour, circuito dove aveva conquistato quattro vittorie. Anche negli ultimi mesi ha confermato la propria qualità con risultati importanti, come per esempio una top 10 al Bahrain Championship nel febbraio 2026 e un piazzamento di vertice al Genesis Championship in Corea del Sud nell’ottobre 2025. L'articolo Incidente choc per Andrea Pavan: precipita per due piani nel vano ascensore, non è in pericolo di vita proviene da Il Fatto Quotidiano.

DUBLIN — Donald Trump has won permission to build a ballroom at his golf resort in Ireland — but only if he can protect the tiny snails that live next door. Tuesday’s planning approval from Clare County Council clears the way for the U.S. president to build a 320-seat ballroom beside his remote Doonbeg hotel and golf club on Ireland’s Atlantic coast. The decision and its timing carry particular weight for Ireland’s government, which enjoys exceptional access to the White House each St. Patrick’s Day — an annual opportunity that, in the age of Trump, has become a political minefield. When Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin visited Trump last year, the U.S. leader complained of the difficulty of building anything at his Irish resort — a problem he mistakenly attributed to Brussels, not Dublin. Next month, Martin can expect warm words from Trump over the Irish ballroom go-ahead. A spokesperson for Martin welcomed the decision but stressed it was a matter for local Clare councilors, not the central government. The largest party on the Clare council, the center-ground Fianna Fáil, is led by Martin. The planning decision is conditional on Trump’s advisers producing a credible plan to safeguard a threatened species that is almost invisible to the eye, the narrow-mouthed whorl snail. The dark brown creatures, barely 2 millimeters in height, were once endemic to Irish coastal dunes and grasslands, but today seem to be in terminal decline, including on the watery edge of Trump’s resort. He and his sons have been battling Irish planning and environmental interests for a decade over whether the resort poses an existential threat to the gastropod. Last September, Eric Trump — Donald Trump’s son, who has overseen the family’s business interests at Doonbeg since its 2014 purchase — boasted that the ballroom would be “the best you’ve ever seen.” He followed that up with a below-the-radar lobbying trip last month to Ireland, during which he pushed for the Doonbeg investment and for government support for the Irish Open, Ireland’s top golf tournament. Doonbeg is due to host the Irish Open this September. The Irish government, which will hold the rotating presidency of the European Union later this year, is already bracing for a potential Trump visit coinciding with the premium competition. Donald Trump hasn’t visited Doonbeg since 2023, when he used a round of golf to launch a long-distance attack on the author E. Jean Carroll, who subsequently won a civil judgment that he had sexually abused her. The approved plan for Doonbeg allows the Trumps to bulldoze the hotel’s existing events building, which has a 260-guest capacity, in favor of a larger facility that will feature new roads and parking, a partially covered terrace, a bridal suite, multiple bars and “champagne and tea stations.” Snails, presumably, will not be on the menu.

BRUSSELS — America’s trade partners expressed quiet relief at the Supreme Court’s rebuke of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Friday, but they are already bracing for his next trade salvo. In a bombshell 6-3 ruling, the top U.S. court struck down the sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs Trump imposed on trading partners last year, when he imposed a 15 percent baseline tariff on most EU goods and a 10 percent duty on U.K. exports.  The decision — which applies to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — does not affect sector-specific duties on sectors like steel, aluminium and automotive. The European Union rushed to appeal for trade stability in the wake of the ruling, calling for “predictability in the trading relationship.”  Brussels said it was in touch with the Trump administration as it seeks “clarity on the steps they intend to take in response to this ruling,” European Commission Deputy Chief Spokesperson Olof Gill said in a statement. The U.K. — which, together with Australia, was hit by the lowest reciprocal tariff rate — downplayed the impact, saying it expected its “privileged trading position with the U.S. to continue,” despite the ruling.  “This is a matter for the U.S. to determine but we will continue to support U.K. businesses as further details are announced,” a U.K. government spokesperson said, adding that it was working with the Trump administration to “understand how the ruling will affect tariffs for the U.K. and the rest of the world.” Initial reactions from other capitals reflected a common desire to avoid any fresh escalation after Trump’s tariff offensive upended the postwar trade order and shook the trust of America’s closest allies. TRUMP’S PLAN B Trading partners, however, broadly expect that Trump will find a way to impose replacement tariffs by the legal means at his disposal — for instance via so-called Section 232 investigations, which in the past were used to impose tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. “We were indeed monitoring this decision. However, we expect the U.S. administration to use other legal instruments to reinstate its tariffs,” a French diplomat told POLITICO. A Washington-based Asian diplomat said their government was eyeing warily the possibility that the administration will pivot to impose fresh tariffs under Sections 301 and 232. That view was shared by Bernd Lange, the top trade lawmaker in the European Parliament. “I’m sure that the administration is now looking for Plan B, so that they use other legal bases like Sections 232 or 301,” said the German Social Democrat, who chairs the chamber’s trade committee.  “I’m sure that the administration is now looking for Plan B, so that they use other legal bases like Sections 232 or 301,” said Bernd Lange, who chairs the chamber’s trade committee. | Jean-Christophe Verhaegen/AFP via Getty Images European negotiators, aware the sweeping tariffs imposed by Trump on “Liberation Day” last April were open to legal challenge, sought to make the trade deal struck at his Scottish golf resort last July resilient to legal jeopardy. This included a maximum, “all-inclusive” U.S. tariff of 15 percent on most exports. But uncertainty persists over the deaI, under which the EU would scrap duties on U.S. industrial goods. It is still stuck in the European Parliament — with a high-stakes vote expected early next week.  For Canada, the ruling reinforces its position that Trump’s tariffs are “unjustified,” said Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc. “While Canada has the best trade deal with the United States of any trading partner, we recognize that critical work lies ahead to support Canadian businesses and workers who remain affected by Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive sectors,” LeBlanc said in a statement.  He added Canada’s relationship with America is currently going through a “period of transformation.” BUSINESS UNCERTAINTY For companies doing business in the United States, the greatest concern is uncertainty. For Canada, the ruling reinforces its position that Trump’s tariffs are “unjustified,” said Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc. | Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, which represents over 50,000 British businesses, said the ruling “does little to clear the murky waters for business,” pointing out that the president could theoretically use the 1974 Trade Act to impose even higher tariffs on the U.K. “The court’s decision also raises questions on how U.S. importers can reclaim levies already paid and whether U.K. exporters can also receive a share of any rebate depending on commercial trading terms,” he added. A lobby group representing the German engineering industry — a major exporter to the United States — welcomed the Supreme Court ruling but said uncertainty remained. “President Trump has several alternative legal bases at his disposal to impose global tariffs,” said Oliver Richtberg, head of foreign trade at the German Engineering Federation (VDMA).  “We therefore fear that a 15 percent tariff on EU imports will be reintroduced soon.” Camille Gijs reported from Brussels, Sophie Inge from London, Giorgio Leali from Paris, Zi-Ann Lum from Ottawa, Phelim Kine from Washington and Thorsten Mumme from Berlin.

STRASBOURG — The European Parliament’s top trade lawmakers on Tuesday agreed a common position on the EU-U.S. trade deal, in a move that will be met with relief both in Washington and in Brussels. The agreement, struck by the centrist groups in the chamber, comes after weeks of wrangling between European lawmakers over whether to attach new strings to the deal struck by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last summer. The meeting broke a weeks-long deadlock over the removal of tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and lobster. It was resolved after the top trade lawmakers ironed out specific safeguards to address the risk that Trump turns hostile again after his threats last month to annex Greenland. Among difficult items, lawmakers agreed to a clause mandating the European Commission to review the deal six months after its entry into force if the U.S. has not lowered tariffs to a 15 percent baseline level on EU products containing steel, instead of the current 50 percent. “If the United States is not reducing the tariffs for these products — more than 400 products — in six months, we will re-establish the tariffs for steel and steel relevant products inside the EU, automatically,” said Bernd Lange, a German Social Democrat who chairs the Parliament’s trade committee. Lawmakers also settled on a sunset clause that would put an effective expiry date of March 2028 on the trade deal — while Trump is still in office — meaning that Washington and Brussels would need to negotiate new terms.  A suspension clause that would void the deal, should Trump threaten Europe’s territorial integrity again, was already agreed prior to Tuesday’s meeting.  “Once the agreement is in place, the EU will also have a new tool to respond if we are once again subjected to tariff blackmail,” said Karin Karlsbro of the liberal Renew Group.  The compromise, backed by the European People’s Party, the Socialists & Democrats, Renew and the Greens, comes after Washington voiced frustration over the slow pace of the EU in making good on its side of the bargain struck at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland last July. “I welcome the Parliament strengthening the Commission proposal to give more tools to the EU side to be able to react in case of US non-compliance,” said Anna Cavazzini, lead lawmaker for the Greens. “However, the Turnberry deal as such remains unbalanced and includes extremely problematic parts like massive LNG imports or deregulation provisions,” she told POLITICO.  The trade committee is now expected to vote on the position on Feb. 24. After a plenary vote confirming the agreement, expected in March, EU institutions would enter into negotiations before the bill can become law. The changes worked into the Parliament’s position set the stage for difficult talks with EU capitals — which in their own deliberations proposed few changes to the European Commission’s proposal.  Lange predicted that EU countries will agree to a version of the suspension trigger, but the sunset clause and steel provisions may be a bigger pill to swallow, as capitals are keen to avoid angering Washington.  “I hope that we can find a proper solution,” Lange said.

BRUSSELS — Only a few days ago, EU diplomats and officials were whispering furtively about the idea they might one day need to think about how to push back against Donald Trump. They’re not whispering anymore.  Trump’s attempt, as EU leaders saw it, to “blackmail” them with the threat of tariffs into letting him take the sovereign Danish island of Greenland provoked a howl of outrage — and changed the world.  Previous emergency summits in Brussels focused on existential risks to the European Union, like the eurozone crisis, Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This week, the EU’s 27 leaders cleared their diaries to discuss the assault they faced from America.  There can be little doubt that the transatlantic alliance has now been fundamentally transformed from a solid foundation for international law and order into a far looser arrangement in which neither side can be sure of the other.  “Trust was always the foundation for our relations with the United States,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk as he arrived for the summit in Brussels on Thursday night. “We respected and accepted American leadership. But what we need today in our politics is trust and respect among all partners here, not domination and for sure not coercion. It doesn’t work in our world.”  The catalyst for the rupture in transatlantic relations was the U.S. president’s announcement on Saturday that he would hit eight European countries with tariffs of 10 percent for opposing his demand to annex Greenland.  That was just the start. In an avalanche of pressure, he then canceled his support for the U.K. premier’s decision to hand over the Chagos Islands, home to an important air base, to Mauritius; threatened France with tariffs on Champagne after Macron snubbed his Board of Peace initiative; slapped down the Norwegian prime minister over a Nobel Peace Prize; and ultimately dropped his threats both to take Greenland by military force and to hit countries that oppose him with tariffs.  Here was a leader, it seemed to many watching EU officials, so wild and unpredictable that he couldn’t even remain true to his own words.  But what dismayed the professional political class in Brussels and beyond was more mundane: Trump’s decision to leak the private text messages he’d received directly from other world leaders by publishing them to his 11.6 million followers on social media.  Trump’s screenshots of his phone revealed French President Emmanuel Macron offering to host a G7 meeting in Paris, and to invite the Russians in the sidelines. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who once called Trump “daddy,” also found his private text to Trump made public, in which he praised the president’s “incredible” achievements, adding: “Can’t wait to see you.”  Leaking private messages “is not acceptable — you just don’t do it,” said one senior diplomat, like others, on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive. “It’s so important. After this, no one can trust him. If you were any leader you wouldn’t tell him anything. And this is a crucial means of communication because it is quick and direct. Now everything will go through layers of bureaucracy.”  Mark Carney had been one of the classic Davos set and was a regular attendee: suave, a little smug, and seeming entirely comfortable among snow-covered peaks and even loftier clientele. | Gian Ehrenzeller/EPA The value of direct contact through phone texts is well known to the leaders of Europe, who, as POLITICO revealed, have even set up their own private group chat to discuss how to respond when Trump does something inflammatory. Such messages enable ministers and officials at all levels to coordinate solutions before public statements have to be made, the same senior diplomat said. “If you don’t have trust, you can’t work together anymore.”  NO MORE NATO Diplomats and officials now fear the breakdown in personal trust between European leaders and Trump has potentially grave ramifications.  Take NATO. The military alliance is, at its core, a promise: that member countries will back each other up and rally to their defense if one of them comes under attack. Once that promise looks less than solid, the power of NATO to deter attacks is severely undermined. That’s why Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that if Trump invaded the sovereign Danish territory of Greenland it would be the end of NATO.  The fact he threatened to do so has already put the alliance into intensive care, another diplomat said.  Asked directly if she could still trust the U.S. as she arrived at the Brussels summit, Frederiksen declined to say yes. “We have been working very closely with the United States for many years,” she replied. “But we have to work together respectfully, without threatening each other.”  European leaders now face two tasks: To bring the focus back to the short-term priorities of peace in Ukraine and resolving tensions over Greenland; and then to turn their attention to mapping out a strategy for navigating a very different world. The question of trust, again, underpins both.  When it comes to Ukraine, European leaders like Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz and the U.K.’s Keir Starmer have spent endless hours trying to persuade Trump and his team that providing Kyiv with an American military element underpinning security guarantees is the only way to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from attacking again in future.  Given how unreliable Trump has been as an ally to Europe, officials are now privately asking what those guarantees are really worth. Why would Russia take America’s word seriously? Why not, in a year or two, test it to make sure?  THE POST-DAVOS WORLD Then there’s the realignment of the entire international system.  There was something ironic about the setting for Trump’s assaults on the established world order, and about the identities of those who found themselves the harbingers of its end.  Among the snow-covered slopes of the Swiss resort of Davos, the world’s business and political elite gather each year to polish their networks, promote their products, brag about their successes, and party hard. The super rich, and the occasional president, generally arrive by helicopter.  As a central bank governor, Mark Carney had been one of the classic Davos set and was a regular attendee: suave, a little smug, and seeming entirely comfortable among snow-covered peaks and even loftier clientele.  Now prime minister of Canada, this sage of the centrist liberal orthodoxy had a shocking insight to share with his tribe: “Today,” Carney began this week, “I’ll talk about the rupture in the world order, the end of a nice story, and the beginning of a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any constraints.”  “The rules-based order is fading,” he intoned, to be replaced by a world of “great power rivalry” in which “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.”  “The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”  Carney impressed those European officials watching. He even quoted Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has enjoyed outsized influence in recent months due to the connections he forged with Trump on the golf course.  NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who once called Donald Trump “daddy,” also found his private text to Donald Trump made public, in which he praised the president’s “incredible” achievements, adding: “Can’t wait to see you.” |  Jim lo Scalzo/EPA Ultimately, Carney had a message for what he termed “middle powers” — countries like Canada. They could, he argued, retreat into isolation, building up their defenses against a hard and lawless world. Or they could build something “better, stronger and more just” by working together, and diversifying their alliances. Canada, another target of Trump’s territorial ambitions, has just signed a major partnership agreement with China. As they prepared for the summit in Brussels, European diplomats and officials contemplated the same questions. One official framed the new reality as the “post-Davos” world. “Now that the trust has gone, it’s not coming back,” another diplomat said. “I feel the world has changed fundamentally.”  A GOOD CRISIS It will be up to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her team to devise ways to push the continent toward greater self-sufficiency, a state that Macron has called “strategic autonomy,” the diplomat said. This should cover energy, where the EU has now become reliant on imports of American gas.  The most urgent task is to reimagine a future for European defense that does not rely on NATO, the diplomat said. Already, there are many ideas in the air. These include a European Security Council, which would have the nuclear-armed non-EU U.K. as a member. Urgent efforts will be needed to create a drone industry and to boost air defenses.  The European Commission has already proposed a 100,000-strong standing EU army, so why not an elite special forces division as well? The Commission’s officials are world experts at designing common standards for manufacturing, which leaves them well suited to the task of integrating the patchwork of weapons systems used by EU countries, the same diplomat said.  Yet there is also a risk. Some officials fear that with Trump’s having backed down and a solution to the Greenland crisis now apparently much closer, EU leaders will lose the focus and clarity about the need for change they gained this past week. In a phrase often attributed to Churchill, the risk is that EU countries will “let a good crisis go to waste.”  Domestic political considerations will inevitably make it harder for national governments to commit funding to shared EU defense projects. As hard-right populism grows in major regional economies, like France, the U.K. and Germany, making the case for “more Europe” is harder than ever for the likes of Macron, Starmer and Merz. Even if NATO is in trouble, selling a European army will be tough.  While these leaders know they can no longer trust Trump’s America with Europe’s security, many of them lack the trust of their own voters to do what might be required instead.