BRUSSELS — Denmark is holding the line and pressing ahead with plans to schedule a crucial vote of EU ambassadors on the EU-Mercosur trade deal next week, in a tug-of-war splitting countries across the bloc. “In the planning of the Danish presidency, the intention is to have the vote on the Mercosur agreement next week to enable the Commission President to sign the agreement in Brazil on Dec. 20,” an official with the Danish presidency of the Council of the EU told POLITICO. This is the first official confirmation from Copenhagen that it will go ahead with scheduling the vote over the deal with the Latin American countries in the coming days, despite warnings from France, Poland and Italy that the texts as they stand would not garner their support.  This risks leaving the Danish presidency of the Council short of the supermajority needed to get the deal over the line. Under EU rules, this would require the support of a “qualified” majority of EU member countries — meaning 15 of the bloc’s 27 members representing 65 percent of its population. The outcome of the vote will determine whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen can fly, as is now planned, to Brazil on Dec. 20 for a signing ceremony with her Mercosur counterparts. France however has been playing for time in an effort to delay its approval of the accord, which has been more than 25 years in the making — a strategy several diplomats warn could ultimately kill the trade deal.  They cite fears that further stalling could embolden opposition in the European Parliament or complicate the next steps when Paraguay, which is more skeptical of the agreement, takes over the presidency of the Mercosur bloc. “If we can’t agree on Mercosur, we don’t need to talk about European sovereignty anymore. We will make ourselves geopolitically irrelevant,” said a senior EU diplomat. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, are expected to descend on Brussels on Thursday for a high-stakes EU summit. While not formally on the agenda, the trade deal with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay is expected to loom large. A farmers demonstration is also expected in Brussels on the same day.  Countries backing the deal, including Germany and Sweden, argue that France has already been accommodated, pointing to proposed additional safeguards designed to protect European farmers in the event of a surge in Latin American beef or poultry imports. The instrument, which still requires validation by EU institutions, was a proposal from the Commission to placate Poland and France, whose influential farming constituencies worry they would be undercut by Latin American beef or poultry.  The texts submitted for the upcoming vote were published last week and include a temporary strengthened safeguard, committing to closely monitor market disruptions — one of the key conditions for Paris to back the deal.

BRUSSELS — The international world order is beyond repair and Europe should adapt to the law of the jungle — or else come up with new rules. That’s the bleak message the European Commission is set to give on Tuesday in a text detailing major challenges ahead. “We are witnessing the erosion of the international rules-based order,” several drafts of its annual Strategic Foresight Report, seen by POLITICO, say. Since taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump has consistently shown contempt for institutions like the United Nations by withdrawing funding or pulling out of key U.N. bodies like the UNHCR, its refugee agency, and UNESCO, which works in education and science. Trump’s global tariff threats have further undermined the authority of the World Trade Organization. The European Union’s executive will acknowledge that these institutions likely won’t recover from the breakdown of the global order. In fact, Europe should prepare for it not to come back. “A return to the previous status quo seems increasingly unlikely,” the draft warns. The EU could be particularly affected by this development. Key features of the bloc, such as its internal market, trade flows, international partnerships, and technical standards, all depend on a functioning multilateral system. “The instability and partial disfunction of the international order and the partial fracturing of global economies have a destabilising effect on the EU’s ability to act in the interest of its economy and the well-being of its people,” it adds. The final text of the report presented on Tuesday could still differ significantly from the drafts. EMBRACING CHANGE The Commission report aims to steer broader EU policies ranging from trade to technology, climate and other areas. It will call for Europe to be ready for the advent of artificial intelligence that matches human thinking; for regulation of technologies to dim the power of the sun; and to consider mining outer space and the deep sea for critical minerals. Instead of clinging to the old rules-based order, Europe should lead an international effort to reform it, the document will say. “The EU should actively and with a coherent approach shape the discussion about a new rule-based global order and a reform of multilateralism,” the draft reads, singling out the U.N. and the WTO, the Geneva-based trade club, as key institutions of focus. The bloc also shouldn’t shy away from forming “new alliances based on common interests,” it advises.

Kristen Hopewell is a professor and Canada research chair in global policy at the University of British Columbia. She is the author of “Clash of Powers” and “Breaking the WTO.” With U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to jack up tariffs to massive heights starting July 9 — including 50 percent tariffs on nearly all goods from the EU — the global economy hangs on a cliff edge. Last week, the bloc floated the idea of creating an alternative to the World Trade Organization (WTO), cooperating with like-minded countries to maintain the rule of law in trade. But there is a better option: Keep the WTO, but kick out the U.S. Since his reelection, Trump has essentially launched a full-scale assault on the global trading system, terrorizing countries around the world with a seemingly endless barrage of tariffs and threats. The U.S. leader isn’t even pretending to abide by WTO rules anymore. Moreover, his tariffs threaten to send the world back to the 1930s, when the spread of trade protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies — spurred by America’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act — exacerbated the Great Depression. Under these circumstances, allowing the U.S. to remain a member makes a mockery of the institution and its principles. And countries committed to preserving a rules-based trading order need to fight back and defend the system, punishing his blatant violation of WTO rules. Today, the U.S. accounts for only about one-tenth of world trade. The global trade regime can survive without it — but only if the rest of the world continues to follow the rules. | Olivier Hoslet/EFE VIA EPA The international legal order governing trade can only be sustained if countries face penalties for noncompliance. But by disabling the WTO Appellate Body, the U.S. has made it impossible to enforce global trade rules. Now, any country that loses a WTO dispute can block the ruling by simply filing an appeal to the defunct body. And by doing this in repeated disputes challenging its WTO-illegal policies, the U.S. has been able to break the rules with impunity. In addition to the substantial harm caused by Trump’s policies, the broader danger here is that rule violation will spread, leading to the collapse of global trade. If his brazen rule-breaking goes unpunished, why should other countries abide by the rules? Today, the U.S. accounts for only about one-tenth of world trade. The global trade regime can survive without it — but only if the rest of the world continues to follow the rules. It won’t, however, survive other countries imitating Trump’s rule-breaking, tariffs and other protectionist measures. This risk of contagion represents a grave threat to global economic security. This is why WTO members must come together in a clear rejection of Trump’s trade aggression and show that it won’t be tolerated. What once would have been inconceivable has now become a necessity: The only way to preserve the rules-based system is to expel or suspend the U.S. The mechanism to do this exists. Although the WTO has no specific procedures for expelling a member, it is possible under Article X, which sets out procedures for amending the WTO agreement. The U.S. could be expelled from the organization by a two-thirds majority vote to alter the agreement. If it refuses to accept the changes, then a three-fourths majority would be required. The U.S. shouldn’t be allowed to continue enjoying the benefits of membership without any responsibility to uphold its obligations. And denying it the rights of WTO membership could finally create the necessary leverage and force Trump to abandon his destructive tariffs. The U.S. president has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the WTO — it’s time to call his bluff.  The economic harm would be considerable: The U.S. would lose its access to global markets at favorable WTO tariff rates and could be subject to tariffs without limit. It would also lose market access for its services exports and protections for its intellectual property, which are the foundation of America’s contemporary economic success and its dominance in leading high-tech sectors. It would lose the WTO’s protections against trade discrimination too, which would allow other countries to impose export restrictions that could cut off its supply of vital goods. Trump has made the U.S. a rogue state on trade, showing a total disregard for international law — and even the notion that trade should be governed by the rule of law. Casting the U.S. out would make clear its status as an international pariah. It’s true, no country has been expelled from the WTO before. But the magnitude of Trump’s rule violation is entirely without precedent, and thus demands an unprecedented response. Without a functional Appellate Body, there’s now no other way to enforce WTO rules against the U.S. Supporters of the rules-based trading order should come together and seek broad support for an amendment to suspend or revoke the U.S.’s membership. If the U.S. comes to its senses and abandons Trump’s tariffs, showing that it’s willing to abide by the rules, the rest of the world would happily welcome it back to the rules-based trading system with open arms. Until then, the WTO must take steps to counter and contain the disastrous effects of his misguided policies. To combat Trump, we must be prepared to construct a WTO without the U.S.