BRITAIN’S LABOUR PARTY STARES INTO THE ABYSS IN ITS WELSH HEARTLAND In the old coalfields of south Wales, Britain’s center-left establishment faces being crushed by a nationalist left and populist right. POLITICO went to find out why. By DAN BLOOM and SASCHA O’SULLIVAN in Newport, South Wales Photo-Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO Eluned Morgan, the Welsh first minister, stood in a sunbeam at Newport’s Victorian market and declared: “Wales is ready for a new chapter.” Many voters agree. The problem for Morgan is: few think she’ll be the one to write it. This nation of 3 million people, with its coalfields, docks, mountains and farms, is the deepest heartland of Morgan’s center-left Labour Party. Labour has topped every U.K. general election here for 104 years and presided over the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, since establishing it 27 years ago. Yet Senedd elections on May 7 threaten not only to end this world-record winning streak, but leave Welsh Labour fighting for a reason to exist. One YouGov poll in January put the party joint-fourth with the Conservatives on 10 percent, behind Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru on 37 percent, Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK on 23 percent and the Greens on 13 percent. Other polls are less dramatic (one last week had Reform and Plaid equal, and Labour a closer third), but the mood remains stark.  The most common projection for the 96-seat Senedd is a Plaid minority government propped up by Labour — blowing a hole in Labour’s status as the default governing party and safe vote to stop the right, and echoing recent by-elections in Caerphilly (won by Plaid) and Manchester (won by Greens). POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across Labour, Plaid and Reform. | Dan Bloom/POLITICO It would raise the simple question, said a senior Welsh Labour official granted anonymity to speak frankly: “What is the point in this party?’” POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across Labour, Plaid and Reform, including interviews with all three of their Welsh leaders, for this piece and an episode of the Westminster Insider podcast. The conversations painted a vivid picture of a center-left establishment fighting for survival in an election that could echo far beyond Wales. While in the 1980s Welsh Labour could unite voters against Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives, now it is battling demographic changes, a decline in unionized heavy industry and an anti-incumbent backlash. All have killed old loyalties and habits. Squeezed by Plaid and Greens to their left and Reform to their right, some in Labour see parallels with other mainstream postwar parties facing a reckoning across Europe. This week, Germany’s conservative Christian Democrats and center-left Social Democrats lost to the Greens in the car production region of Baden-Württemberg; the latter barely scraped 5 percent. In the recent Manchester by-election, the Conservatives lost their deposit. Welsh Labour MPs fear a reckoning. One said: “We will have to start again. We rebuild. We figure out, what does Welsh Labour mean in 2026? What do we stand for?” NEW CHAPTER, SAME AUTHOR It takes Morgan 20 minutes to walk the 500 meters from Newport Market to our interview. Some passers-by flag her down; others she ambushes. We pass a baked goods shop (“Ooh, Gregg’s! That’s what I want!”) and Morgan emerges with a latte, though not with one of the chain’s famous sausage rolls. She introduces herself to one woman as “Eluned Morgan, first minister of Wales.” Her target looks vaguely bemused.  After the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame when things go wrong. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’ Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal. “I didn’t have a mandate really, because I was just kind of thrown in,” she tells POLITICO midway up the high street. “I thought, right, I need a program, so I went out on the streets and took my program directly from the public without any filter.”  She is selling a nuts-and-bolts offer of new railway stations, a £2 bus fare cap and same-day mental health care. Morgan casts herself as the experienced option to beat what she calls the “separatists” of Plaid and the “concerning” rise of populism. She means Reform, which wants to scrap net zero targets and cut 580 Welsh civil service jobs. Yet paradoxically, she also paints herself as a vessel for change. “[People] want to see change faster,” she said in John Frost Square, named after the leader of an 1839 uprising that demanded voting rights for all men. She wants to show “delivery” and “hope.” Dimitri Batrouni, Newport Council’s Labour leader, suggested an Amazonification of politics is under way. “Our lives commercially are instant,” he said. “I want something, I order it, it’s delivered to my house … people quite naturally want that in their governments.” But after 27 years, many voters are rolling the dice on delivery elsewhere. Welsh Labour is promising to end homelessness by 2034, but previously made the same pledge by 2026. Around 6,900 people are still waiting two years or more for NHS treatment (though this figure was 10 times higher during the Covid-19 pandemic). Education rankings slumped in 2023. At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel Farage.” ‘SHIT, WELL, HE DIDN’T CALL ME’ Much of this anger is pointed at Westminster — which is why Labour has long tried to show a more socialist face to Wales.  It was the seat of Labour co-founder Keir Hardie as well as of Nye Bevan, who launched Britain’s National Health Service in 1948. “Welsh Labour” was born out of the first Senedd-style elections in 1999, when Plaid surged in south Wales heartlands while Tony Blair’s New Labour appealed to the middle classes. For years, this deliberate rebranding worked; Labour pulled through with the most seats even when the Tories ruled Westminster. Yet in 2024, the party boasted of “two Labour governments at both ends of the M4” — in London and in Cardiff — working in harmony. The emphasis soon flipped back when things went wrong in No. 10; Morgan promised a “red Welsh way” last May. She is “trying to find our identity again,” said the MP quoted above. Morgan appeared to disown the “both ends of the M4” approach, while declining to call it a mistake. “Look, that was a decision before I became first minister,” she said. A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’ Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images She tries to be playful in distancing herself from Keir Starmer. “He came down a couple of weeks ago and I was very clear with him, if you’re coming you need to bring something with you. Fair play, he brought £14 billion of investment,” she said. “If he wants to come again, he’ll have to bring me more money.” But she has also hitched herself to Starmer for now — unlike Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who has called for the PM to go. As we sat down, Morgan professed surprise at news that Sarwar called several Cabinet ministers beforehand. “Did he! Shit, well, he didn’t call me,” she said. “Look at the state of the world at the moment; actually what we need is stability,” she added. “We need the grown-ups in the room to be in charge, and I do think Keir Starmer is a grown-up.” ‘ELUNED WASN’T HAPPY’ Morgan has mounted a fightback since Plaid won October’s Caerphilly by-election.  She has hired Matt Greenough, a strategist who worked on London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s re-election campaign last year, said three people with knowledge of the appointment. One of the people said: “During Caerphilly, it became quite clear there were a lot of problems. Eluned wasn’t happy with Welsh Labour or the way the campaign was running. She did a lot of lobbying and got the Welsh executive to basically give her complete power over the campaign.” Morgan “was angry that the central party [in London] took control of the Caerphilly by-election,” another of the people added. (A Morgan ally disputed this reading of events, saying she would always take a bigger role as the election drew near, and that a wide range of Labour figures are involved in the campaign committee such as a Westminster MP, Torsten Bell.) Morgan also has more support these days from Labour’s MPs — who pushed last year for her to focus less on Plaid and more on Reform. That lobbying may have been a mistake, the MP quoted above admits now. “We were quite naive in thinking that the progressives would back us,” this MP said. Privately, Labour politicians and officials in Wales say the mood and prospects are better than the start of 2026. Though asked if Labour would win the most seats in the Senedd, Batrouni said: “Let’s look and see. It’s not looking good in the polls but … politics changes so quickly.” IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT KEIR STARMER The harsh reality is that Labour’s base in Wales began slipping long before Starmer, rooted in deindustrialization since the 1970s and 80s. Newport, near England on the M4 corridor, has a measure of prosperity that other parts of Wales do not. The 137-year-old market has had a makeover, Microsoft is building data centers and U.S. giant Vishay runs Britain’s biggest semiconductor plant. Here Labour is mostly expecting a fight between itself and Reform. At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel Farage.” | Jon Rowley/Getty Images Wales’ west coast and north west are more Plaid-dominated, with more Welsh speakers and independence supporters. But support for nationalists is spreading in the southern valleys. “All across the valleys you’re seeing places where Labour has dominated for 100 years plus but is now in deep, deep crisis,” said Richard Wyn Jones, professor of Welsh politics at Cardiff University. “It has long been the case that a lot of Labour supporters have had a very positive view of Plaid Cymru — they just didn’t have a reason to vote for them until now.” Wyn Jones attributes the change to trends across northern Europe, where traditional left-wing parties have been “unmoored” from working-class occupations. A growing service sector has brought more white-collar voters with socially liberal values. Carmen Smith, a 29-year-old Plaid campaigner who is the House of Lords’ youngest-ever peer, said Brexit had unhitched young, left-leaning voters from the idea of British patriotism: “There are a lot more young people identifying as Welsh rather than British.”  And after the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame when things go wrong.  All the while, a left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour voters is turning to Reform UK. At the Tumble Inn, a Wetherspoons chain pub in the valley town of Pontypridd, retired gas engineer Paul Jones remembered: “You could leave one job, walk a couple of hundred yards and start another job … it was a totally different world. I wish we could get it back, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.” He hasn’t voted for years but plans to back Reform. THEY’VE BLOWN UP THE MAP All these changes will be turbocharged by a new electoral map. A previous Labour first minister, Mark Drakeford, introduced a more proportional voting system which will see voters elect six Senedd members in each of 16 super-constituencies. The results will reflect the mood better than U.K. general elections (Labour won 84 percent of Wales’ seats on a 37 percent vote share in 2024), but create a volatile outcome. In the mega-constituency for eastern Cardiff, Wyn Jones believes the six seats could be won by six parties: Labour, Plaid, Reform, the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats. Ironically, said the Labour MP quoted above, Welsh Labour is now polling so badly that it could actually win more seats under the new system than the old one. Trying to win the sixth seat in each super-constituency will hoover up many resources. The size of each patch changes how parties campaign, said Plaid’s Westminster leader Liz Savile Roberts: “We’ve had to go to places that I’ve never been to.” And the scale means activists have a weaker connection to the candidates they campaign for — compounded in Labour by many Senedd members stepping down. Just six people turned up to one recent Labour door-knocking session in a heartland seat. A left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour voters is turning to Reform UK. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images After May 8, the new system will make coalitions or informal support deals more necessary to command a Senedd majority. Morgan declined to say if she would support Plaid’s £400 million-a-year offer to expand free childcare (which Labour says is unfunded), rather than see it voted down. “I’m certainly not getting into hypotheticals,” she said. “I’m in this to win it.”  Her rivals have other ideas. THE PRESIDENT IS COMING On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words: “New leadership for Wales.” The former BBC presenter, who took over Plaid’s leadership in 2023, strained not to make his February conference look like a premature victory lap. Members could’ve been fooled. They struggled to find parking. There were more lobbyists; more journalists. It is a slow burn for a party founded in 1925, which won its first Westminster seat in 1966. Ap Iorwerth ramped up the anti-establishment rhetoric in his conference speech while Lindsay Whittle, who won Caerphilly for Plaid in October’s by-election, bellowed: “Rich men from London, we are waiting for you!” Yet he insists his success is more than a protest vote, a trend sweeping Europe or a mirror of Reform’s populism. “I’d like to think that we’re doing something different,” Ap Iorwerth told POLITICO. While Morgan accuses him of “separatism,” he said: “We have a growing sense of Welsh nationhood and Welsh identity, at a time when there’s deep disillusionment in the old guard of U.K. politics and a sense of needing to keep at bay that populist right wing.” Ap Iorwerth said there is a “very real danger” that Labour vanishes entirely as a serious force in the Senedd. “The level of support that they have collapsed to is a level that most people, probably myself included, could never have imagined would happen so quickly,” he said. INDEPENDENCE DAY? But Plaid faces three big challenges to hold this pole position. The first is its ground game, stretched thin to cover the new world of mega-seats. On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words: “New leadership for Wales.” | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images The second is to remain distinct from Labour and the insurgent Greens while running a broad left-leaning platform focused on energy costs, childcare and the NHS. The third is to convince unionist voters that Plaid is not simply a Trojan horse for Welsh independence. Independence is Plaid’s core belief, yet Ap Iorwerth did not mention the word once in his speech, instead promising a “standing commission” to look at Wales’ future. He told POLITICO he would rather have a “sustained, engaging, deep discussion … than try to crash, bang, wallop, towards the line.”  But opponents suggest Plaid will push hard for independence if they win a second term in 2030 — like the Scottish National Party did after topping elections in 2007 then 2011. One conference attendee, Emyr Gruffydd, 36, a member for 19 years, said independence “is going to be part of our agenda in the future, definitely. But I think nation-building has to be the approach that we take in the first term.” Savile Roberts accepted that shelving talk of independence (which is still supported by less than half the Welsh population) is part of a deliberate strategy to broaden the party’s reach and keep a wide left-leaning appeal. “I mean, we know the people that we need to appeal to — it is the disenchanted Labour voters,” she said. For some shoppers in Newport — not Plaid’s home turf — it may be working. One ex-Labour voter, Rose Halford, said of Plaid: “All they want to do is make everybody speak Welsh.” But she’ll consider backing them: “They’re showing a bit more gumption, aren’t they?” TAXING QUESTIONS FOR PLAID If Plaid does win, that’s when the hard part begins. Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. And Plaid has vowed not to hike income tax, one of the few (blunt) tax instruments available to the Welsh government. Strategists looked at the issue before and feared it would prompt taxpayers to flee over the border to England. So Plaid promises vague financial “efficiencies” in areas such as child poverty, where spending exceeded £7 billion since 2022, and health. Whittle said: “There’s an awful lot of people pen-pushing in the health service. We don’t need pen-pushers.” Labour’s attack machine argues that Plaid and Reform UK alike would cut services. Ap Iorwerth insists his and Farage’s promises are different: “We’re talking about being effective and efficient.” But he admitted: “You don’t know the detail until you come into government.”  Ap Iorwerth jettisoned any suggestion that Plaid would introduce universal basic income, saying it is “not a pledge for government.” He added: “It’s something that I believe in as a principle. I don’t think we’re in a place where we have anything like a model that could be put in place now.” Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images The blame game between Cardiff and Westminster will run hot. Ap Iorwerth voiced outrage this week at a leaked memo from Starmer in December, ordering his Cabinet to deliver directly in Wales and Scotland “even when devolved governments may oppose this.” FARAGE’S WELSH SURGE And then there’s Reform. Farage’s party has rocketed in the polls since 2024; typical branch meetings have swelled from a dozen members to several dozen. Since February, Reform has even had its own leader for Wales — Dan Thomas, a former Tory councillor in London who says he recently moved back to the area of Blackwood, in the south Wales valleys. Some party figures have observed a dip after the Caerphilly by-election, where Reform came second. Thomas insists: “I don’t think we’ve plateaued” — and even said there is room to increase a 31 percent vote share from one (optimistic) poll. “There’s still a Labour vote to squeeze,” he told POLITICO.  “We’re targeting all of Wales.” It is a measure of Plaid’s success that Reform UK often now presents the nationalist party as its main competition. “It’s a two-horse race [with Plaid], that’s what I say on the doors,” said Leanne Dyke, a Reform canvasser who was drinking in the Pontypridd Wetherspoons. James Evans, who is now one of Reform’s two Senedd members after he was thrown out of the Conservative group in January on suspicion of defection talks, argues his supporters are underrepresented in polling because they are “smeared” as bigots. Evans added: “Very similarly to what happened in America when Donald Trump was elected, I think there is a quiet majority of people out there who do not want to say they’re voting Reform, who will vote Reform.”  Reform has its own custom-built member app, ReformGo, as it canvasses data on where its supporters live for the first time. It sent a mass appeal by post to all registered Welsh voters in late 2025 (before spending limits kicked in). Welsh campaign director David Thomas is recruiting a brand new slate of 96 candidates, booking hotels for training days with interviews, written exercises and team-building. Daytime TV presenter Jeremy Kyle has helped with media training. English officials cross the border to help; Reform still only has three paid officials in Wales. FARAGE HAS AN NHS PROBLEM Lian Walker, a postal worker from the village of Pen-y-graig, would be a prime target for Reform. “There’s people who I see on the databases, they don’t work,” she said in Pontpridd’s Patriot pub, “but they get everything; new windows, earrings, T-shirts, shorts.” She supports Reform’s plans to deport migrants. But on the NHS, she says of Reform: “They want it to go private like America.” Labour and Plaid drive this attack line relentlessly. The full picture is more nuanced — but still exposes a tension between Farage and Thomas. But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. | Ben Birchall/PA Images via Getty Images While Reform emphasizes it would keep the NHS free at the point of use, Farage has not ruled out shifting its funding from general taxation to a French-style insurance model, saying that would be “a national decision ahead of a general election.” Thomas, however, broke from this stance. He told POLITICO: “No, no. We rule out any kind of insurance system or any kind of privatization.” He added: “Nigel’s also said that devolved issues are down to the Welsh party, and I wouldn’t consider any kind of insurance-based or private-based system for the Welsh NHS.” Labour and Plaid are relying on an anti-Reform vote to keep Farage’s party out of power. Opponents have also highlighted the jailing of Nathan Gill, Reform’s former Welsh leader, for taking bribes to give pro-Russia interviews and speeches. But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. In Evans’ sprawling rural seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, two people with knowledge of the Conservative association said its membership had fallen catastrophically from a recent peak of around 400. On the other hand, the sheer number of defections makes Reform look more like a copycat Conservative Party. A former Tory staffer works for Evans; Thomas’ press officer is the Welsh Conservatives’ former media chief. Evans said last year that 99 percent of Reform’s policies were “populist rubbish,” but was allowed to see the policy platform in secret before he agreed to join (and has since contributed to it). While the long-time former UKIP and Brexit Party politician Mark Reckless led a policy consultation in the first half of 2025, former Conservative Welsh Secretary David Jones — who defected without fanfare last year — played a hands-on role behind the scenes working up manifesto policies, two people with knowledge of his work said. THE NIGEL SHOW Then there is Reform’s reliance on Farage himself.  The party deliberately left it late before unveiling a Welsh leader, said a Reform figure in Wales, and chose in Thomas a Welsh figure who would not “detract from Nigel’s overall umbrella and brand.” While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans, including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia Yusuf. Thomas said: “Ultimately, it’s my decision to sign off the manifesto. Of course, Nigel was consulted because he’s our U.K. leader, and we want to ensure that what’s going on in Wales is aligned to the broader picture in the UK.” Reform’s Welsh manifesto promises to cut a penny off every band of income tax by 2030, end Wales’ “nation of sanctuary” plan to support asylum seekers, scrap 20mph road speed limits and upgrade the M4 and A55 highways. But costings have not been published yet — Reform has sent them to be assessed by the Institute for Fiscal studies, a nonpartisan think tank — and like other parties, Reform faces questions about how it will all be paid for. Asked if Reform would begin work on the M4 and A55 upgrades by 2030, Thomas replied: “We’d like to. But we all know in this country, infrastructure projects take a long time.” While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans, including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia Yusuf. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images ‘I’VE GOT TO FOCUS ON WHAT I CAN CONTROL’ These harsh realities facing Wales’ would-be rulers are a silver lining for Labour. Morgan avoided POLITICO’s question about whether she believes the polls — “I’ve got to focus on what I can control” — but insisted many voters remain persuadable. “People will scratch the surface and say [our rivals] are not ready,” she said. Alun Michael, who led the first Welsh Labour administration in 1999, said the idea that the Labour vote has “collapsed completely” is wrong. “It’s always dangerous to go on opinion polls as a decider of what will happen in an election,” he said. Whoever does win will deserve a moment of levity. If Ap Iorwerth wins the most seats on May 7, he will drink an Aperol spritz; Thomas will have a glass of Penderyn Welsh whisky.  As for Morgan? She would like a cup of tea — milk, no sugar. Perhaps survival would be sweet enough.

PARIS — Emmanuel Grégoire should have had an easy campaign to succeed his former boss, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo. But the pair’s very public political breakup is creating a major obstacle for the Socialist front-runner in the lead-up to the race to lead the French capital, which begins on Sunday. Since their clash, Grégoire has conspicuously distanced himself from Hidalgo, and that has meant losing the opportunity to win votes by boasting about the successful Paris Olympics or the transformation of the banks of the Seine into a popular pedestrian area with cafés and restaurants.   If Grégoire fails to extend the Socialists’ quarter-century rule of Paris, it would be a disaster for his party and further evidence of its weakness before the country’s presidential election next year. “She did everything she could to torpedo my candidacy. I’m not her candidate and I am not her heir,” Grégoire said in a February interview with franceinfo. That’s a spectacular rupture for the man who was her principal deputy from 2018 to 2024. The race is going to be close, giving the right its best opportunity in years to take control of the City of Lights — if it can unite around one candidate. Grégoire and conservative former Culture Minister Rachida Dati are running neck-and-neck for the top spot in the polls. But an unprecedented five candidates could make the runoff on March 22, which would trigger a mad scramble for alliances.  PARIS LOCAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS All 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Smooth Kalman For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls. A BUNGLED SUCCESSION So what happened between Hidalgo, the chief architect of the French capital’s green revolution, and Grégoire, her once-presumed heir?    Over the summer, Hidalgo spurned his candidacy to support a lesser-known senator to succeed her as mayor.  Grégoire still wound up winning the Socialist Party’s nomination, but the damage was done after Hidalgo publicly claimed that “the left would lose” Paris if her former deputy was its candidate.  Three people familiar with their relationship, all granted anonymity to speak candidly, said things started to turn sour after Hidalgo’s failed 2022 presidential bid, in which she won a dismal 1.75 percent of the vote.  With Hidalgo’s fortunes waning and Grégoire seemingly tapped as her replacement, things started to get “complicated,” an official in the Socialist Party said.   The pace of change and Anne Hidalgo’s disregard for her critics has not helped her popularity. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images “She has an authoritarian streak and was really hard on him,” the official said.  This is a trait that has widely been remarked upon, and it earned her the nickname “Queen-Mayor.” It helped with short-term implementation of projects but now looks like it could have undermined her party in the long run, given some of the bad blood it has fomented.   “You need toughness to succeed in Paris and transform the city,” said Gaspard Gantzer, a former Paris City Hall advisor. “Her style was a bit brutal, a bit cutting with others.”  Hidalgo was then furious when Grégoire ran for and won a parliamentary seat representing Paris during the 2024 election, according to two of the three people familiar with the relationship. One of Hidalgo’s allies said “they were both at fault,” as Grégoire became less supportive of her political ambitions and started pursuing his own agenda after the last presidential race.  “It was a classic leader versus heir situation,” the Hidalgo supporter said.   ‘A DIFFERENT MAYOR’ Asked about the feud by POLITICO when unveiling his platform to reporters last month, Grégoire said he has fond memories of working with Hidalgo but stressed he would be “a different mayor” who would address “the new expectations” of Paris residents.  Grégoire has instead tried to take a page out of Zoran Mamdani’s New York playbook, focusing his message on housing shortages and bringing down the cost of living. He’s also promised to “break with [Hidalgo’s] method.”  While Grégoire hasn’t exactly broken through in the polls, the strategy could reap benefits given the Europe-wide anti-green backlash and Hidalgo’s reputation among resident of the capital.  A poll from Ipsos published in December found that Hidalgo leaves office with a legacy that splits Parisians, even if they have come to love biking to work or enjoying more open space.   The pace of change and Hidalgo’s disregard for her critics has made her divisive, even losing some support among those proud of the Olympics and Paris becoming a global showcase for urban transformation. Hidalgo’s missteps added to the resentment, whether that focused on ill-designed bike lanes, several abandoned urban forests or the endless redevelopment of the Eiffel Tower gardens.  “She would make a huge announcement and then wait for her teams to comply,” said Paris urban policy expert Stephane Kirkland, who has worked for firms involved in Paris city projects. “It was a my-way-or-the-highway approach.” Rachida Dati has tried to seize on public dissatisfaction with City Hall by linking Grégoire to Hidalgo. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images Kirkland said that Grégoire’s campaign has clearly “internalized the new dynamic” against green issues and exasperation with Hidalgo.  Grégoire “isn’t talking about anything green, even if his coalition includes green parties. He is really focused on social issues, security and cleanliness,” Kirkland said.  Dati, the conservative challenger, has tried to seize on public dissatisfaction with City Hall by linking Grégoire to Hidalgo and accusing the duo of turning Paris into a dirty, disorganized, never-ending construction site.  There are limits to that strategy, though. Not even Dati wants to reverse course on pedestrian zones like those on the banks of the Seine.   Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed to this report. 

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — We had been laughing about a dismal performance in this year’s edition of the Italian Sanremo song contest — when we heard a big bang outside. The boom triggered an alarm in our modernist apartment block beside Dubai’s towering Burj Khalifa, and the phones all began buzzing with an emergency government notification: “Please remain indoors in safe areas.” We grabbed our passports, bolted down the staircase and hunkered down in the garage. There are no air raid shelters in Dubai. During an almost sleepless night, I checked my phone every hour — giving me a slight glimpse of what ordinary Ukrainians have endured for more than four years. Until now, none of us — presumably not even Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, who rushed back to Rome in a military plane from Dubai on Sunday — could have imagined having to seek shelter in this glitzy resort town, which has monetized its reputation as a safe harbor from tensions in the Middle East.   My plans on Saturday to fly to Nicosia, Cyprus to cover an upcoming meeting of EU ministers after stopping over in Dubai to visit a friend were suddenly obliterated by Iran’s unprecedented strikes on Gulf countries including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The UAE’s Ministry of Defense said that within 24 hours the country was attacked by 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 541 drones — most of which were destroyed by their air defenses. Debris from those intercepts hit Dubai Airport and two luxurious hotels, Fairmont The Palm and Burj Al Arab. It soon became clear that Dubai’s Western expats — an exotic mix of high-flying corporates, influencers and holiday-goers like me — were poorly equipped to handle a crisis. Few people chose to take the stairs — a no-brainer when drones and missiles are flying above the city. Several residents waited in the reception area with their chihuahuas and cats — the sound of barking and meows being drowned out by the roar of sports cars heading for nearby highways. “Where on earth are they going?” I wondered. We had dismissed the well-intended advice of an acquaintance to drive for more than two hours to Oman — a theoretical safe haven, until it was targeted by Iranian strikes the following morning. On Sunday, Dubai’s usually choked highways were empty as ominous blasts continued to echo throughout the city. Buzzy Kite Beach — which had been bustling with bulked-up joggers before the conflict erupted — emptied the following day. Any unexpected noise drew panicked reactions from the few beach-goers who continued to order avocado toasts. Buzzy Kite Beach — which had been bustling with bulked-up joggers before the conflict erupted — emptied the following day. | Andrew Aitchison/AFP via Getty Images Despite the unease, the legions of people who deliver food on tiny mopeds never stopped working and continued to supply the homebound population. They reminded me of the nurses and doctors who kept the medical system afloat during the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s too early to tell whether Iran’s attack will permanently damage Dubai’s image as a safe and trendy melting pot. “Iran did not strike a military base in Dubai. It struck the idea of Dubai,” the analyst and author Shanaka Anslem Perera wrote on X. “Dubai is a financial thesis. It is the proposition that you can build a global city at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and insulate it from the region’s violence.” But as in every crisis, Dubai’s sharky financiers, at least, see an opportunity. “It’s the right time to buy property, prices will massively go down after the attacks,” a young consultant enthused to me as I tried to blink away the sleepless night.

BRASÍLIA — Brazilian lawmakers are pushing a historic rollback of environmental rules that would strip protections from the Amazon — less than a week after the country wraps up hosting the U.N. climate talks. Since last week, Brazil has welcomed representatives from almost 200 countries to this year’s U.N. climate talks in the Amazonian city of Belém. The country has used the conference to showcase President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s success in slashing deforestation rates in the world’s most important rainforest. But 1,600 kilometers farther south in the capital Brasília, Lula’s opponents have a different agenda — and they are planning to use the moment after the summit ends to push through a series of changes to the law that Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva told POLITICO would amount to a “severe weakening of Brazil’s environmental rules.” The move exposes the balance of power in Brazil, where the leftist president is faced with a Congress dominated by politicians aligned with industrial interest groups, particularly the agriculture sector. Lula’s opponents are seeking to use their majority in the Congress to ram through changes that would hand companies the power to conduct their own environmental checks to gain the licenses needed to operate potentially destructive new projects designated “medium impact.” This could include dams, mines, industrial plants and oil and gas production. The licensing of large infrastructure projects could be authorized by a different process, called “special environmental licensing.” Projects deemed as strategic would be fast tracked, bypassing environmental checks. Also, the farming sector would largely be exempted from environmental planning oversight. Another proposal would strip Indigenous oversight of projects that affect their traditional lands. This change would affect Brazil’s Amazon region, around a quarter of which is managed by Indigenous people. Silva said that passing these into law “would be a setback that dismantles policies consolidated over decades … creating loopholes that would allow high-impact projects to bypass essential technical analyses, putting at risk entire river basins, biomes and the communities that depend on these territories for their livelihoods.” LULA’S VETO Both houses have already passed the law once, with large majorities. But in August, Lula struck down 63 of the most environmentally damaging aspects of the bill, which include the aforementioned provisions, while signing the rest into law. The Congress can overturn some or all of Lula’s vetoes with a majority in both houses and he would not be able to veto again. On Wednesday, senators indicated they wanted to hold a vote in both houses of Congress on Nov. 27 on the vetoes — only six days after diplomats are scheduled to leave Belém. The Congress is likely to repeat its previous vote and overturn the president’s vetoes, said Suely Araújo, the former president of Brazil’s government forest protection agency, now a public policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory NGO. “I really don’t think that Lula has power enough to stop this,” she said, adding:“I’m sure that we will have problems of deforestation increasing” if the vetoes are struck down. This view was echoed in a report by two of Brazil’s leading experts in environmental management who said it would “generate significant environmental degradation.” Araújo said environmental groups were planning to take the issue to the Supreme Court. Mauricio Guetta, legal policy director at the campaign group Avaaz, said it would be “the worst environmental setback in our history.” POLITICO contacted two lawmakers who support agribusiness, plus the Instituto Pensar Agropecuária, a non-profit group that represents the sector. None responded to requests to comment for this article. Mato Grosso do Sul Governor Eduardo Riedel, from one of Brazil’s center-right opposition parties, reportedly told an event at the COP30 climate conference that the General Environmental Permitting Law, as it is known, reformed the planning system in a way that was vital for delivering projects at speed. “Society increasingly demands increasingly agile responses due to the magnitude of development and growth so it is also not an obstacle to development,” said Riedel. AMAZON ON THE BRINK The stakes are global. Large scale deforestation and climate change are pushing the Amazon toward a tipping point that scientists warn could see the forest’s rain cycle collapse. This would lead to increased fires and, eventually, replacement of the trees that store huge quantities of carbon, with grasslands. This would, in turn, accelerate global warming with consequences everywhere. Coming just days after Brazil’s Amazon climate conference, passing the reforms wholesale would show Brazil had “regressed,” said Nilto Tatto, a member of Congress from Lula’s Workers Party. “It’s very bad for Brazil’s image. It’s very bad because of everything that the COP here in Belém represents.” Silva said the potential rollback “undermines the international commitments Brazil has assumed, including those related to the Paris Agreement.” Tatto added that it could have implications for trade with the European Union, which has sought to regulate its supply chains to discourage environmental harms. The government could try to delay the vote, which has already been pushed back once, partly to avoid colliding with the U.N. talks. Lula arrived at COP30 with a strong record on stamping out deforestation that soared under his rightwing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro. But the current administration has needed to balance Lula’s promises of environmental protection in Belém and the political and economic reality of Brazil. Next year, Lula will stand for a fourth term as president against an as yet unknown candidate, who will likely be drawn from the hard right and would almost certainly walk away from efforts to protect the environment. Just ahead of COP30, Lula’s government approved new oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River, while Lula has backed a 900-kilometer highway redevelopment that environmental and Indigenous groups say would provide access for extractive industries and threaten huge new areas of forest. “They are very weak,” Araújo said of the government. Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed reporting from Brussels.

PARIS — Newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will have to hit the ground running, taking the reins of government just as protesters seek to bring France to a grinding halt. Authorities are bracing for demonstrations and blockades on highways, train stations, airports and refineries as part of an online movement called “Block Everything.” Paris Police Chief Laurent Nuñez said an “exceptional” deployment of close to 80,000 security forces across the country is planned for Wednesday and that authorities will “intervene systematically” to remove any blockades. The shutdown campaign began gaining steam after outgoing Prime Minister François Bayrou unveiled his plans to squeeze the 2026 French budget by €43.8 billion in July. Lawmakers on Monday torpedoed Bayrou’s government over those spending plans, which the longtime centrist argued were necessary to rein in excessive public spending. The French president appointed Lecornu a day after Bayrou’s downfall, responding to calls quickly replace the outgoing prime minister at a time of deep political tension. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau himself called on the president to fill “the power vacuum.” The scale of the unrest will be a major test for Lecornu, one of Macron’s closest allies since he came to power, and the former armed forces minister will see his authority and popularity tested on his first day on the job. A discreet political operator, Lecornu has earned plaudits for shepherding France’s rearmament in the wake of the war in Ukraine, but will be thrust in the limelight like never before. In addition to responding to any violence during Wednesday’s protests, Lecornu will have to jumpstart budget talks through a paralyzed parliament without a majority. And even more widespread strikes are planned for next week. ‘NO ORGANIZERS, NO ONE WE CAN TALK TO’ In addition to its big security rollout on Wednesday, the French government is also investigating whether foreign agitators attempted to amplify the movement, though one official said the effect had so far been “marginal.” While comparisons have been drawn between “Block Everything” and the Yellow Jackets, an analysis by the Jean Jaurès Foundation concluded that the two movements are “profoundly different,” with Wednesday’s plans driven in large part by the radical left. Wednesday’s campaign, however, is supported by 46 percent of the French, according to a recent survey by pollster Ipsos. The shutdown campaign began gaining steam after outgoing Prime Minister François Bayrou unveiled his plans to squeeze the 2026 French budget by €43.8 billion in July. | Remon Haazen/Getty Images Unlike the Yellow Jackets, which began online in opposition to a fuel tax hike before entering the mainstream and bringing the country to a standstill, the “Block Everything” crusade’s goal is much more nebulous. Online accounts claiming to belong to the Sept. 10 movement are calling for a range of things, from an end to political parties to a boycott of the banking system and Macron’s resignation. Nuñez said that the leaderless nature of the movement has fueled concerns about its unpredictability. “It’s not like a demonstration, there are no organizers, no one we can talk to, just calls to block everything,” said Nuñez. “And more worryingly, the calls have been relayed by radical extreme-left [groups] who are calling for hardcore, sometimes violent acts.” Authorities also fear that whatever happens on Wednesday will inflame protests next week, which are organized by French trade unions.

A Cabinet member in a council run by Reform UK accused colleagues of sacking him in an “ambush” hours after national leader Nigel Farage came to visit. Bill Barrett lasted less than two months overseeing transport on Kent County Council, where Farage’s right-wing populist party won 57 out of 81 seats at May’s local elections. Farage visited the council on Monday and gave an interview saying Kent’s £98 million-a-year budget for home-to-school transport was “beyond belief.” Later that day, council leader Linden Kemkaran issued a statement saying she had “made changes to my Cabinet team” and Barrett had left his role.  Her chief whip Maxwell Harrison told KentOnline on Monday: “Bill wasn’t sacked. He agreed to leave — it was an agreement. Bill was doing a good job and there was no bad blood.” Speaking to POLITICO Wednesday, however, Barrett said that story was “completely false.” He added: “It’s a complete lie. There was no mutual arrangement that we left. I walked into an office basically to an ambush, where they basically spent 50 minutes saying how shit I was.”  ‘I WALKED IN TO AN AMBUSH’ Farage met members of Kent’s Cabinet on Monday morning, a meeting in which Barrett spoke at length about transport and potholes on the county’s roads. “He walked over to me, shook my hand, and he smiled, and he said, well done,” said Barrett of Farage. Barrett said after lunch he went to a meeting with Kemkaran to find her deputy Brian Collins and Harrison also in the room. He said Collins questioned him about why he was not visiting highways inspectors in person to examine their work. Barrett also said that Kemkaran gave him one month to find cuts from a dossier on the highways department which officials had drawn up in recent weeks. Barrett, who accused his senior colleagues of being “conniving” and running a “toxic environment,” said he eventually walked out of the meeting after being warned that if he left, he would be gone. Barrett added: “My opinion is 100 percent that I’ve been sacked. I did not resign in paper, email or any other form. I walked out of her office. They were abusing me and bullying me.” He made no suggestion that Farage was responsible for his sacking. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage attends a meeting alongside the Head of Kent County Council, Linden Kemkaran, during his visit to the Reform UK group at Kent at Kent County Council at County Hall, Maidstone. | Gareth Fuller/PA Images via Getty Images ‘DISAPPOINTING’ Kemkaran pushed back at Barrett’s criticism, saying in a statement Wednesday evening: “Naturally it’s always slightly disappointing when a colleague who’s been given every chance to step up and improve their performance declines the opportunity and instead walks out of a meeting, knowing that it would mean they’d lose their position.” The council leader added: “We have a new cabinet member for highways and transport firmly in place and as far as we are concerned it’s business as usual, serving the people of Kent. “What I’m not going to do is give a running commentary on the Members’ positions here at KCC. We’re simply getting on with the job.” The incident shines a spotlight on Reform’s push to cut home-to-school transport costs, many of which are spent on children with special educational needs. More broadly, it comes as Reform gets to grips with running 10 councils in England where it gained overall control in the May local elections. Farage’s nascent party has only four MPs — a fifth, James McMurdock, gave up the whip this week after seeking legal advice about business loans during the COVID pandemic — but is leading U.K. national opinion polls. Barrett said he has filed a formal complaint to Reform’s National Chairman David Bull and to Kent County Council Chief Executive Amanda Beer.

BJOERN SEIBERT, THE POWER BEHIND QUEEN URSULA’S THRONE Von der Leyen’s chief of staff is the man to call to get things done in Brussels. But for a growing number of critics, he has too much control. By NICHOLAS VINOCUR, MAX GRIERA and NETTE NÖSTLINGER Photo-illustration by Daniel Benneworth-Gray for POLITICO He’s known as the man to call to get things done in Brussels. He leans on party bosses to exert his sway over the European Parliament. And he manages the European Commission, an institution of 32,000 employees, like an extension of his brain, watching over everything from social media posts to mid-level staff appointments. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s right-hand man, Bjoern Seibert, is the ultimate behind-the-scenes Brussels power broker. Never heard of him? That’s exactly how he likes it. At von der Leyen’s side for about a decade, the soft-spoken 45-year-old has built up a reputation as a tireless worker, astute political strategist and ruthlessly efficient operator who delivers on promises. Advertisement For top officials in Paris, Berlin and Washington, it’s a dream come true. Finally, they have someone who can pick up the phone and deliver, a huge asset at a time when Europe was being buffeted by crises. “He is incredibly influential,” said Phil Gordon, former national security adviser to Kamala Harris when she was U.S. vice president. “No one was seen as better understanding the EU and how to get things done.” Others agree, praising Seibert as “very clever” and a “strategic thinker.” “He is the most powerful official in Brussels by some distance,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe at the Eurasia Group, a think tank. OVERMIGHTY ADJUTANT More comfortable behind the scenes than in the limelight, Seibert is intensely private. Publicly known facts about him include that he is married with two children and works incredibly long hours. That’s about it. But as he embarks on his second five-year term as von der Leyen’s head of Cabinet, Seibert — at times referred to as the Commission’s unofficial “co-president” — faces increasing criticism from those who think his power has grown too large. In an interview with POLITICO in early June, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier lamented what he called an “authoritarian drift” in Brussels under von der Leyen and her “powerful chief of staff.” That chimes with what six current and former Commission staffers told POLITICO, namely that Seibert’s insistence on signing off on everything from the public speaking points of his commissioners to the the names of individual Cabinet picks leads to bottlenecks, delays and demoralization. In person, Seibert is a discreet if physically imposing figure — tall, a speaker of perfect English with traces of dry humor. | Olivier Hoslet/EFE via EPA Another effect is fear. Out of the 25 EU officials, diplomats, lawmakers and experts in total we spoke to for this article, just three agreed to speak on the record and only one of those voiced any criticism. Several people cited fear of professional reprisals as their reason for wanting to remain anonymous. Others say his German conservative leanings are overbearing in a town that is already preponderantly German and conservative. They point to when Seibert insisted on backing a German conservative for a top EU business envoy post, only to see the appointment lead to a major political backlash. Still others point to his close working relationship with the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden, which they say became a liability after Donald Trump’s election. “He derived a lot of his power from his direct line to the White House,” said a former Commission official. “That’s not the case anymore with Trump. Everything needs to be rebuilt.” Advertisement A Commission official pushed back on this characterization, underscoring regular continuing contacts with the White House. A spokesperson for the Commission declined to comment for this piece. Seibert himself declined to be interviewed. Other Commission officials pushed back against criticism saying he has generous time for debate — amounting to hundreds of hours, according to a tally shared with POLITICO — and that centralization has made the EU far more efficient. Bottlenecks and delays, Seibert’s defenders argue, are partly due to staffers seeking input on files where more senior direction is not necessarily warranted. But this account is disputed by others who say that only Seibert and von der Leyen can be held responsible for a system they have created. “This Commission is very hierarchical with nothing passing Bjoern without his consent,” said Bas Eickhout, co-chair of the Greens group in the European Parliament. Seibert, wearing New Balance sneakers, looks at papers while von der Leyen talks to the media at the European Commission headquarters in Brussels. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images Indeed, Seibert isn’t the first EU civil servant to prompt fear and fascination in Brussels. Before him, there was Martin Selmayr, another German who held sway under ex-President Jean-Claude Juncker and was known as the “Monster of the Berlaymont.” But most people agreed Seibert is now the more formidable figure — a merciless T-1000 liquid metal Terminator versus the laconic, clunkier older generation T-800 model played by Arnold Schwarzenegger. “He’s far more powerful today than Selmayr ever was,” said a former French government official. I DON’T REMEMBER ANYTHING Anyone seeking insight into Seibert from his personal history is in for disappointment: Little from his youth has filtered into the public domain, and a Wikipedia entry offers as many clues as a broken Babylonian tablet. In person, Seibert is a discreet if physically imposing figure — tall, a speaker of perfect English with traces of dry humor, he can be spotted in the vicinity of his boss, wearing New Balance sneakers and clutching a packet of files. He’s quieter than Selmayr, but also wields a bigger stick: One Commission official described him as a “quiet killer.” Seibert graduated with a degree in social science from Erfurt University in the eastern German state of Thuringia in 2005, per the university, then went on to pursue a string of research fellowships at U.S. academic institutions including MIT focusing mostly on defense and security. Advertisement Upon his return to Germany, he moved to the German defense ministry where he initially worked at the politics department, according to a former colleague, who also said he impressed colleagues by going against Bundeswehr orthodoxy. At the time, his ability to work seemingly inhumane hours made an impression — and helped win him promotion to the office of von der Leyen, who was then defense minister. That was the beginning of the “Bjoern and Ursula” double act that would come to rule over Brussels. An episode from 2019, after von der Leyen had been picked by EU leaders to be the next head of the Commission, reveals a key ingredient in their partnership. Seibert had been called upon to testify in front of an investigative committee of the German parliament looking into how lucrative contracts from the defense ministry while von der Leyen was in charge were awarded to outside consultants without proper oversight, and whether a network of informal personal connections facilitated those deals. At the center of the committee’s investigations was Katrin Suder, a former McKinsey consultant who became von der Leyen’s deputy in charge of the defense ministry’s arms department. In 2014, she brought Seibert into her department, quickly promoted him to be her chief of staff and later recommended him to do the same job for their common boss, von der Leyen. His performance before the investigative committee would have pleased the most demanding of mafia bosses. “Seibert declared in an endless loop that he could not remember anything, absolutely nothing,” according to a German media account of his performance from the time. ‘HIS RESPONSIBILITY’ Seibert’s loyalty would soon be tested again. After von der Leyen won the nod from EU leaders to become Commission president, she needed a two-thirds majority in the European Parliament to be confirmed in the role. Normally, the task of cobbling together a majority would fall to Manfred Weber, a powerful German conservative who oversees the umbrella group of center-right European parties. But Weber was licking his wounds from having been passed up for the top EU job in favor of von der Leyen. So the task fell to Seibert who, despite having no experience as a political operator, managed to pull off a nine-vote majority for von der Leyen by reaching outside the normal circle of so-called governing parties to the right-wing populists. It was thanks to Seibert’s “significant contribution” that von der Leyen was confirmed, a German colleague said at the time. Seibert isn’t the first EU civil servant to prompt fear and fascination in Brussels. | Olivier Hoslet/EFE via EPA Once installed at the Commission, the pair faced a wall of skepticism. “When the Commission started there was lots of skepticism about whether von der Leyen and Bjoern would be able to control the institution, as they didn’t know how it worked,” a former French official said. “They disproved this within days.” Seibert, in particular, impressed counterparts. “He was exceptionally well-prepared,” the same official said. “He would always show he knew exactly what was going on in French politics. It was clear that this was someone you could trust, but who is also about control, about power.” Working in a tight unit with a small cadre of mainly German-speaking advisers, von der Leyen and Seibert used the Covid-19 pandemic to consolidate power. When the time came to negotiate vaccine contracts, they split the work among several sections of the Commission, giving Single Market Commissioner Thierry Breton oversight of vaccine supply chains. Advertisement But the negotiation of contracts itself was given to Sandra Gallina, a senior health official in the Commission. In reality, according to two former Commission officials, it was Seibert and von der Leyen who steered negotiations, culminating in the president’s December 2020 announcement of a deal to buy millions of doses of vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech and a subsequent New York Times interview in which she said she’d agreed on the deal via text message exchange with Pfizer’s chief executive. In the ensuing “Pfizergate” scandal, von der Leyen faced criticism — and a judgment from the Court of Justice of the European Union — for having failed to conserve the messages. But some of that criticism should have been directed at Seibert, the former officials said. “It was his responsibility,” said one of the two ex-officials. “He is the reason for monumental mistakes committed by his president.” A spokesperson for the Commission declined to comment. LOYAL TO A FAULT Loyalty would once again come into play in the final months of von der Leyen and Seibert’s first Commission term. As von der Leyen prepared for a reelection bid (with Seibert as her campaign manager), their decision to nominate a German conservative loyalist to the role of EU envoy for small and medium businesses sparked a revolt. Four commissioners, including Breton, questioned the decision to nominate Markus Pieper over two women who had reportedly scored higher in the selection process. Advertisement Two former officials recall that Seibert had defended the nomination internally, saying he had “no flexibility” in the matter. That argument didn’t go down well. The leadership duo would end up having to retract Pieper’s nomination. Critics argued that the episode underscored a lack of political sensitivity, as Seibert had failed to anticipate the blowback which came primarily from Breton along with then-top diplomat Josep Borrell; Luxembourgish Socialist ex-Commissioner Nicolas Schmit and Italian Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. “The problem is a lack of management experience,” the same former official said. “It leads to a tendency to do things in an authoritarian way.” EVERYTHING GOES THROUGH BJOERN Von der Leyen and Seibert had learned their lesson. When it was time to choose commissioners after von der Leyen was reelected in 2024, they forced out the rebellious Breton and stocked the College with less-experienced candidates. Here again, Seibert was on the front line, negotiating with political bosses in the European Parliament who needed to sign off on nominations during hearings. One senior Parliament official described Seibert as someone who is “very professional” but also quick to use pressure when things aren’t going his way. “I’m noticing more and more that he doesn’t deal well with contradiction … He is not used to be contradicted in this sense.” Once the hearings were over, Seibert got to work name-checking nominations of individual Cabinet members based on criteria of gender and nationality. Each commissioner had to send their list of Cabinet picks to the 13th floor, where the president’s chief of staff would personally approve or reject the names. Seibert, behind the table, listens to von der Leyen speak to commissioners-designate in September 2024. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images “This is a taste of the Seibert style,” said a current senior Commission official who pointed out that Seibert was the first head of Cabinet to have his name posted on a panel, right below the president’s name, in front of the elevator on the Berlaymont’s 13th floor. “He is not leaving anything to chance.” Since then, Seibert’s grip on power in the Commission has only tightened further. A case in point: the recent restructuring of the Commission’s Secretary General office, planned and submitted for approval in January. A green light came three months later not due to any problem but because Seibert hadn’t been able to look at it yet. A Cabinet member of a European prime minister quipped: “I know that he is a guy who does not know how to delegate, and that this inability to delegate and obsession to co-govern the commission with Ursula has caused bottlenecks and frustrations in the cabinets.” MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY In other cases, critics chafed at Seibert’s tendency to steamroll opposition. A senior Parliament official echoed the concern about Seibert’s power: “He’s in such a stage of full power that he speaks directly with the commissioners. He speaks directly with politicians. He is forgetting a little bit what his place is.” Even as he wields his power in Brussels, Seibert now has to rebuild his relationship with Washington. Identified as “Biden’s man” due to his relationship with ex-national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Seibert played a key role in building the tightest transatlantic relationship in decades. Advertisement He and Sullivan would issue joint communiqués and worked in lockstep on rolling out sanctions against Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. When Biden’s announcement of the Inflation Reduction Act threatened to fray ties between Brussels and Washington, it was Seibert’s behind-the-scenes diplomacy with the White House that led to a rare Rose Garden joint press conference by von der Leyen and Biden, according to a former high-ranking Commission official. But this closeness hasn’t helped Seibert under Trump, who refused to speak to von der Leyen or any other EU official for months after his election. Seibert has recently accompanied top trade negotiator Maroš Šefčovič on negotiation trips to Washington D.C., but any hint of the old special relationship appears to be gone as Europe faces sky-high tariffs. The Commission’s approach has been to tread carefully to avoid irking Trump, avoiding action — such as imposing a fine on Elon Musk’s X for violating the Digital Services Act — that might prompt a furious tweet or sudden retaliation. Seibert’s reputation reflects the town he lives in: bureaucratic, power-mad, largely opaque. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images But this approach, which now includes potential far-reaching concessions on Europe’s digital rulebook to clinch a trade deal, is undermining European sovereignty, according to critics who say the EU should defend its rules no matter the cost. “This is all due to fear: fear of offending the Americans,” the former official said. A Commission official who declined to be named underscored what they called regular contacts between Seibert and members of the Trump administration as well as in-person engagement, including Seibert’s trips to Washington. FEAR OF THE BEAR All in all, Seibert’s reputation reflects the town he lives in: bureaucratic, power-mad, largely opaque. It generates myths around powerful civil servants who operate in the shadows, first Selmayr, now Seibert. Few people interviewed for this piece voiced serious alarm about Seibert’s influence. But it’s telling that only one person out of 25 — a Dutch lawmaker no less — was willing to share a critical thought on record.