Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music In dieser Wochenendausgabe spricht Rixa Fürsen mit dem ⁠stellvertretenden Chefredakteur der ZEIT, Holger Stark⁠, über sein neues Buch. Darin legt er dar, warum die USA sich zwar unter Trump verändert haben, dies aber kein reines Trump-Phänomen ist und warum diese Entwicklung auch nach seiner Amtszeit nicht mehr verschwinden wird. Stark hat mit Politikerinnen und Politikern in den USA und der EU gesprochen und zeigt auf, warum der Niedergang der transatlantischen Beziehungen auch das Ergebnis einer gewissen Sorglosigkeit und fehlender Weitsicht seit Beginn der 2000er-Jahre ist. Holger Stark liest dazu auch Passagen aus seinem Buch „Das erwachsene Land: Deutschland ohne Amerika – eine historische Chance“, in dem es auch darum geht, wie eine Zukunft jenseits des bisherigen starken Partners aussehen könnte. ⁠Das Buch ist im Propyläen Verlag erschienen und unter anderem hier erhältlich.⁠ Außerdem blicken Rixa und Holger Stark auf die kommende Woche. Dann reist der Bundeskanzler nach Washington. Was er dort erreichen kann, unter anderem, wenn es um Zölle und die Ukraine geht, ist ein weiteres Thema in dieser Folge. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His new book, “Braver New World,” will be published in April. He is a regular POLITICO columnist. “The old order is unraveling at breathtaking pace,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking to the great and good at Davos as they frantically assessed the multitude of storms whipped up by U.S. President Donald Trump. The world has entered a new era built on brute force, and “it’s not a cozy place,” he declared. As far as appearances go, the speech was pretty good, delivered in the near-impeccable English of a man who spent many years with U.S. financial institutions. Yet Merz was still overshadowed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose own speech about the West’s “rupture” was hailed as epoch-making. Not to be outdone, a few weeks later Merz insisted to the Munich Security Conference’s organizers that he wanted to break with convention and give the opening address. With everyone fearing a repeat of U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s menace the year before, the chancellor took it upon himself to try and galvanize. His message: The world order is over; European complacency is over; but at the same time, Europe won’t apologize for its values. It was a speech that stiffened the sinews for what was to come. Make no mistake, Merz doesn’t have the charisma of other leaders. But as Germany approaches the first anniversary of the elections that ushered out the anemic Social Democrat-led government of Olaf Scholz, it may well be that in this new chancellor, the country has found the leader Europe needs for these darkened, hardened times. Merz is no Carney — but the two may have more in common than they realize. A former central banker, Carney certainly looks the part of the leader he’s become, but that wasn’t always the case. In early 2025, staring into an abyss, Canada’s Liberals decided to dump then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Then, just weeks after taking over, Carney called a general election and, against the odds, defeated populist conservative Pierre Poilievre.  The person he really had to thank, however, was the incoming president south of the border who, after just a few months in office, had already vowed to absorb Canada as the 51st U.S. state. These are trying times for those who refuse to kowtow to Trump, but for Carney, they appear to be paying dividends — his approval ratings are now at their highest since he took office in March 2025. So, might the same happen to fellow centrist and ally Merz?  Unfortunately, there are a lot of things working against the German leader. For one, his party’s polling ratings remain doggedly low. The first poll of 2026 showed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) extending its overall lead to 27 percent of the vote, while Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came in at 24 percent. The chancellor’s personal popularity remains in the doldrums as well, as only 23 percent satisfied with him, and even among CDU supporters, only just over half approve of their own leader. Then, there is the fact that steadfastness in dealing with Trump’s vagaries — not to mention Russian President Vladimir Putin’s and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s — doesn’t necessarily insulate one from disenchantment back home. Something British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are finding out to their cost. For sure, Merz faces headwinds: Economic growth is forecast at around 1 percent in 2026 — which is better than the anaemic 0.2 percent of 2025 but still a far cry from the powerhouse of old. Consumer spending remains stubbornly low, and insolvencies are at their highest in a decade. In a letter to his party at the start of the year, Merz wrote that the economy was in a “very critical state.” The coalition, he said, would “have to concentrate on making the right political and legal decisions to drastically improve the economic conditions,” and that labor costs, energy costs, bureaucratic hurdles and tax burdens are all too high. “We will need to work on this together,” he concluded. But his coalition is struggling to do so, turning the much-vaunted “Autumn of Reforms” into a damp squib. Yet Merz was still overshadowed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose own speech about the West’s “rupture” was hailed as epoch-making. | Andrej Ivanov/AFP via Getty Images Moreover, many of the changes Merz would like to introduce — his latest bugbears are part-time work and Germans’ propensity to call in sick — are fiercely opposed by his coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), which continue to cling to the welfarist view of yesteryear. In any case, Germany’s problems go even deeper: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine exposed an overreliance on Russian gas, which has proven rather expensive to move away from. Trump’s tariffs compromised Germany’s export-driven model. And now China’s overtaking Germany in several sectors it once provided a willing market for — notably cars. One thing working in Merz’s favor, however, is that compared to the far more embattled Starmer and Macron, he at least has money to spend. Of course, it’s not all perfect: Statistics for 2025 show the government’s been struggling to implement its plans to inject half-a-trillion euros into infrastructure over the long term, and there’s considerable concern over how this money will be spent. The Council of Economic Experts, which provides independent advice to ministers, has warned the government is at risk of “squandering” its investment, as it’s been using too much of the new funds to pay for pensions and social spending. But that’s a nice problem to have compared to others in Europe.  Finally, one date in the diary is filling Merz — and the leaders of Germany’s other mainstream parties — with trepidation: Sept. 6, when voters in the eastern state of Saxony Anhalt cast their ballots. One of the quirks of German politics is that the country’s in a permanent state of electioneering, with several regional elections per year. And ahead of the Saxony Anhalt vote, the AfD is currently at around 39 percent, with the CDU trailing at 26 percent, followed by the Left Party at11 percent, and the once-mighty SPD hitting rock bottom at 8 percent. One thing working in Merz’s favor, however, is that compared to the far more embattled Starmer and Macron, he at least has money to spend. | Pool photo by Stefan Rousseau/Getty Images If the eventual results broadly reflect current predictions, one of two options will come to pass: Either the CDU will be forced to cobble together an unwieldy coalition with parties it has almost nothing in common with, or the AfD will secure an outright majority, and in so doing, control its first regional parliament and get a seat in the Bundesrat upper house. This would, in turn, rekindle the fraught debate over the “firewall” — i.e. the main parties’ refusal to include the AfD from government at any level. Still, these elections are seven months away, and seven months in MAGA mayhem is a long time. Trump’s threats to take over Greenland even caused far-right parties across Europe disquiet, impelling some to criticize him, and nonetheless discomfiting those who didn’t. So, might voters begin to tire of all the disruption as the economy slowly cranks into gear? That’s his hope. It’s a distant one, but there’s a chance that what helped Carney could help him too.

John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book “In Search of Berlin” is published by Atlantic. He is a regular POLITICO columnist. One of the most common headlines in the German newspapers used to be a reassuringly long compound noun: Koalitionsverhandlungen. Coalition and negotiations — these were the two words Germany’s postwar democracy was based on, as mainstream parties would come together to forge deals to run the country and the Länder. No group or individual would ever again get close to untrammeled power — a rule that applied not only to the formation of governments but to each and every measure, requiring committees to pore over details, cabinet meetings to discuss the big picture and compromise, and then gain parliamentary approval. Plus, if politicians overstepped, the courts could always restrain them. This system of multiple checks and balances provided reassurance and stability since the establishment of the Federal Republic in 1949. But now, all this is under threat. In today’s new age, deliberative politics is regarded as the antithesis of what is needed. It’s a reappraisal that’s affecting many liberal democracies in Europe — but none more so than Germany, which long advertised the virtues of compromise that are now denounced as vices. Some Germans, particularly those on the right, now negatively compare their government’s approach to domestic and foreign policy to that of U.S. President Donald Trump, asking why Christian Democrat (CDU) Chancellor Friedrich Merz can’t be more like the American leader. Why can’t he bulldoze his way to get what he wants and then bask in the glory, rather than wheeling and dealing with his coalition partners over everything from aid for Ukraine to unemployment benefits. It’s not just the politicians who complain about this supposed weakness either. Much of the German media fulminates about it every day, as opposed to how they embraced compromise before. As a result, Merz has found himself wading through in the worst of both worlds. When recently challenged by one of Germany’s top television hosts about watering down so many of his party’s election promises, he responded: “I am no longer the representative of the CDU. I am the representative of the government. And that government is a coalition of two parties.” That, alas, is no longer enough. Instead, everyone must fight to get their own way in a new form of public disputatiousness that took root during the last government’s three-party “traffic light” coalition. Leading members battled over everything: The Social Democrats (SPD) , then the largest party, pursued their welfare agenda; the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), which had barely scraped into parliament, controlled the purse strings; and the only thing they could agree on was ganging up on the Greens’ agenda. It was dispiriting to watch, and it came crashing down when then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his minister of finance, FDP leader Christian Lindner, with ostentatious acrimony. All three parties were subsequently punished in last February’s general election, ushering in the new era under Merz. But even before he took the seals of office, Merz was being undermined by all sides — including within his own ranks. Both the CDU and SPD already agree on the reintroduction of military service in some form, and the details being haggled over are just that — details. | Clemens Bilan/EPA The players might be different, but the fighting remains the same. Right before parliament went into recess in July, for instance, several CDU MPs signaled they’d vote against a judge nominated to the Constitutional Court — an unprecedented break with protocol — prompted by a far-right storm portraying the moderately liberal candidate as dangerously left-wing. The vote was postponed, and the judge eventually withdrew her candidacy. Amid fears that a Rubicon had been crossed, both ruling parties then vowed to behave and better cooperate when the Bundestag resumed in September. But have they? Yes and no. In the age of social media, with its onus on brevity and bombast, German politicians are having to relearn their craft. Dogged and discreet participation in committees is no longer the route to success. Therefore, the negotiations required for two or more parties to come together and strike a deal are inevitably being portrayed in an argumentative manner. And it’s a shift that’s taking place across pretty much all areas of government business. For example, both the CDU and SPD already agree on the reintroduction of military service in some form, and the details being haggled over are just that — details. The fundamental question is what happens if the required threshold isn’t met through voluntary recruitment. Is it a form of lottery — absurd, but under consideration — or something else? And yet, the discussions led to a public row between senior politicians. What Merz promised was an “autumn of reforms,” and these are gradually being rolled out. But instead of hailing what is being achieved, all sides are publicly complaining they haven’t got what they wanted, and it’s taking up all the oxygen. Indeed, that is politics — but as ever, there’s also the looming specter of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to consider. Still riding high in the polls, the party has five regional elections to look forward to in 2026, including one in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where polls predict it might even win an overall majority — an extraordinary prospect. And the AfD’s promises, such as those to slash immigration, point to a wider phenomenon — the simplification of political solutions — which, again, brings us back to Trump. By riding roughshod over constitutional and societal norms, the U.S. president has changed both the American and global landscape in less than a year. The German political system, which is nearly 80 years old now, was built to withstand the exercise of muscular power. But if the very type of politics that it introduced — the politics of compromise — is now scorned by so many, the onus is on Merz and his ministers not just to deliver on policy but to clearly demonstrate that all isn’t lost for the painstaking politics of reason.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Wer regiert die Welt – und was treibt sie an? In unserem Sommer-Spezial geht es um die mächtigsten und umstrittensten Politikerinnen und Politiker unserer Zeit. Wir zeigen, wie sie denken, entscheiden – und was das für uns bedeutet. Ein Politiker pro Tag, ein Blick hinter die Kulissen der Macht. In der Machthaber-Serie: 04.08.2025 – Wladimir Putin 05.08.2025 – Marine Le Pen 06.08.2025 – Javier Milei 07.08.2025 – Xi Jinping 08.08.2025 – Giorgia Meloni 11.08.2025 – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 12.08.2025 – Benjamin Netanjahu 13.08.2025 – Friedrich Merz 14.08.2025 – Narendra Modi 15.08.2025 – Mohammed bin Salman 16.08.2025 – Ursula von der Leyen Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.