EUROPE’S VANISHING CARS ARE JEOPARDIZING ITS RAW MATERIALS SECURITY Used cars are a treasure trove of metals essential in energy technology, but the EU is letting them vanish without a trace. By MARIANNE GROS in Brussels Illustration by Natália Delgado/ POLITICO EU decision-makers don’t have to look far to find cheap critical raw materials: Just 5 kilometers away from the EU quarter, car dealers up and down Heyvaert Street are scooping them up and shipping them to Africa. Dealerships in this industrial precinct in southwest Brussels send European used vehicles — many too polluting to be allowed on the continent’s roads — to African countries like Senegal, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, where the market for Europe’s unwanted automobiles is thriving. That one street intimately connects the capital of the EU — where some 10 million new cars hit the roads each year — to a global supply chain of used vehicles that sustains road transport in developing markets. One day these cars will end up in junkyards far away, and with them tons of valuable metals that the EU could recycle and reuse to run its economy. But Europe’s age-old habit of exporting unwanted goods is coming back to bite it as the bloc looks to recycle its way out of its reliance on raw materials imported from China.  The EU is scrambling to secure new sources of critical metals and minerals necessary for clean energy and military technology — a task of increasing urgency as geopolitical tensions disrupt traditional supply chains. For a small continent like Europe that is poor in natural resources but rich in consumer goods, old cars are a promising source of these materials. The vehicles are full of metals such as copper, platinum and steel that are essential in a long list of critical industries such as clean energy and military technology. And they’ll become even more valuable as early generations of electric vehicles — full of battery metals like lithium, cobalt and nickel — reach the end of their lifespans. But the EU isn’t close to taking advantage of this prospect. Along with those that are legally exported, between 3 million and 4 million end-of-life cars disappear without a trace from the EU each year. That’s a third of all cars that get deregistered. Some go missing because of a gap in the paper trail. Others get exported through obscure trade routes. Many are dismantled illegally, with the more valuable parts sold online or in non-compliant dealerships — while the rest are dumped, creating a pollution risk. “We see big and currently unused potential in recycling, reuse and also substitution” of critical raw materials, said Keit Pentus-Rosimannus, a member of the European Court of Auditors who last month co-authored a report on the EU’s difficulties in securing a supply of critical raw materials.  But that recycling and reuse can only happen if the waste products, e.g. cars, make it to recycling hubs in the first place.  The market for Europe’s unwanted automobiles is thriving in cities like Lagos in Nigeria. | Olympia De Maismont/AFP via Getty Images “The illegal dismantling and export of [end-of-life vehicles] is mainly motivated by profits from the sale of spare parts and metals,” the German Environment Agency wrote in a study on the topic back in 2020. Unauthorized dismantlers are “neglecting proper depollution, to avoid additional costs,” the study explained.  In a separate paper published in 2022, the agency estimated that 20 percent of all German vehicles that “go missing” — over 72,000 cars — are exported illegally.  According to Interpol data, nearly 3.6 million vehicles and vehicle parts from Europe — not just EU countries — were registered in the Stolen Motor Vehicles database as of Dec. 31, 2025. EUROPE’S MISSED OPPORTUNITY  The EU has made materials recycling a strategic pillar of its mission to reduce reliance on imports from China in an increasingly hostile geopolitical environment. Europe’s economy runs on importing critical raw materials, such as nickel, copper and lithium, as well as rare earths and so-called platinum group metals like palladium or platinum. It needs them to build car engines, weapons and products that contribute to the bloc’s green tech transition, including batteries, chips and solar panels.   While the metals are mined all over the world, China overwhelmingly dominates the processing and refining of these critical raw materials.  To address this, the European Commission says it wants to launch new mining projects, sign deals with other countries to diversify its supply, and promote recycling projects.  With the introduction of the Critical Raw Materials Act in 2024, EU governments are required to adopt national circularity measures to boost the recovery of critical raw materials and simplify permitting processes for recycling and recovery projects. The law says that 25 percent of the EU’s annual strategic raw material consumption should come from domestic recycling by 2030. Last December, the Commission announced additional measures as part of a new plan called RESourceEU.  But many argue that progress is too slow. “Most EU targets that are in place do not incentivize the recycling of specific individual materials. High processing costs, limited availability of materials, technical and regulatory issues also make the use of the recycling sector less competitive,” the Court of Auditors’ Pentus-Rosimannus said. Others say the EU is doing little to reduce consumption in the first place. Policymakers need to be “addressing [materials] consumption aspects to accelerate this process in addition to everything else that is being done on the recycling part” said the European Environment Agency’s head of the clean and circular economy group, Daniel Montalvo. EU policies should tackle “how we can change this upstream part of the material cycle so that we use products more intensively and for longer,” he added. RECYCLERS NEED HELP  End-of-life vehicles should all end up in one of Europe’s 13,000 authorized treatment facilities like the one in Menen, Belgium, which straddles the country’s border with France and is run by recycling company Galloo.   Running a recycling center is expensive and illegal dismantlers create unfair competition because they avoid regulatory and compliance costs. | Sebastian Kahnert/picture alliance via Getty Images “We can dismantle 17 cars at once here. Usually, we treat 10 to 15 thousand cars a year, but this year we’re around 3 or 4 thousand on this site,” said Emmanuel Katrakis, the company’s director of public and regulatory affairs. Galloo set up Valorauto, a joint venture with French-Italian automaker Stellantis, in 2023. Valorauto runs a vehicle take-back and recycling service through 300 authorized treatment facilities in Western Europe. The low turnover in Europe’s car fleet — a result of stagnating sales since the Covid pandemic due to Europe’s weaker economy — means fewer cars end up in recycling centers. Once the vehicles reach what can only be described as a cemetery for cars, the vehicles get scrubbed of polluting substances and taken apart. Most of the plastic, rubber, glass and iron can be recycled. Crucially, the more precious resources in their engines, catalytic converters and electrical systems can be collected. Two thirds of vehicles that reach end-of-life status end up in this system.  But running a recycling center is expensive. Illegal dismantlers create unfair competition because they avoid regulatory and compliance costs, which drives the price down, while also diverting some of the end-of-life-vehicle flow — and therefore revenue — away from authorized centers.  “We’re tired of having bad actors in our sectors who are willing to work with a completely illegal market,” Katrakis said.  Cars also get dropped off with missing parts.”We’re going to buy their car for €150, maybe €200, but they know they can sell their catalytic converter separately for €60. They do the math,” he added.  For Valorauto’s general manager, Thomas Delgado, online marketplaces should be held responsible for enabling the car dismantling grey market, saying they don’t monitor the sellers properly. “There are several marketplaces that should do their part to help [us] fight this system” he said, by preventing individual sellers from selling a car part unless they can prove they are registered as an authorized treatment facility.   Then there are Europe’s faulty registration systems. A lot of these cars go missing because they are sold second-hand in another country but are never deregistered in their country of origin. “Today we have national computer systems that are supposed to track things, but they’re totally overwhelmed,” Delgado said.  There are also gaps between the car registries and the database of insured vehicles. Responsibility for monitoring these systems is often shared by several national ministries.  National governments have tried to address the issue by creating incentives for car owners to drop their vehicles off at authorized centers. In Denmark, for example, owners can get a “scrapping premium” when their vehicle is dropped off at an approved dealer.  A new regulation on end-of-life vehicles aims to clarify when a car is legally considered waste.  | Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images At the EU level, a new regulation on end-of-life vehicles aims to address the issue with “clearer rules on the distinction between a used vehicle and an end-of-life vehicle” and “a strict framework for transfers of ownership,” but some of the technical aspects of the law are still being discussed. The law also aims to clarify when a car is legally considered waste.  The automotive sector is glad to see the EU will “implement an EU-wide registration/deregistration system and regulate the export of ELVs outside the EU, preventing valuable raw materials from leaving the European market,” according to ACEA, the sector’s main lobby.  GETTING A SECOND LIFE  Over 800,000 used vehicles are exported from the EU each year, mainly to African countries, according to EU data. The revised end-of-life vehicle regulation states that only roadworthy cars can be exported from the EU.   Just because a car isn’t allowed on the streets of a European city doesn’t mean it should be dismantled immediately, however.   “It’s important to make the distinction because they are not necessarily at the end of life everywhere,” said Pierre Hajjar, chief executive officer of Socar Shipping Agencies, a vehicle shipping company on Brussels’ Heyvaert St. Last December local police raided the street, seizing 45 vehicles and forcing several dealerships to close for not complying with national rules on cash payments or for not having the right environmental permits.   With the revised end-of-life-vehicle regulation, the EU wants to increase traceability so “only high-quality, technically fit European vehicles will be exported.” But for African markets, Hajjar says that’s already the case.  “For Africa, everything goes by boat, everything is extremely traceable,” he said, because port authorities and maritime shipping companies have high thresholds for the kind of vehicles that can be exported. “Whereas in Eastern countries it’s road transport … there isn’t really any traceability, they cross the borders quite easily,” he added.  

Piglia piede in tutta Europa l’esecuzione di crimini da parte di minorenni reclutati in un Paese diverso dal luogo del delitto. E così in aprile è stata creata la task force operativa (OTF) di Europol Grimm, che oggi annovera funzionari investigativi di undici Paesi, esperti interni e la collaborazione di fornitori di servizi on line, per contrastare un sistema che pare inarrestabile. Colonia, nel 2024 è stata teatro di una guerra di droga, diversi ragazzi o tutt’al più giovani adulti, tedeschi e olandesi, sono stati incaricati di esplosioni, sparatorie e torture. I modelli sono i rapper che nei loro testi idealizzano i soldi facili fatti nel mondo criminale. I giovani vengono adescati col passaparola, ma anche con annunci diretti sui social media. Ci sono canali Telegram di spaccio con promesse di entrate fino a 4.500 euro al mese e poi gli algoritmi di Instagram e TikTok che a chi vede un video con violenza, droghe e criminalità ne offre ancora altri. E lo portano presto a offerte “di lavoro” nei commenti. Pure Snapchat dà spazio a messaggi che invitano a mettere il proprio conto a disposizione per riciclare del denaro associati a video con una mano colma di banconote. Altro veicolo di contatto sono le piattaforme di gioco, come Fortnite o Counter-Strike. I social cancellano milioni di annunci e collaborano con gli inquirenti, ma i gestori non spiegano come sia possibile trovarne sempre di nuovi. Europol chiama il fenomeno “crimine come servizio”. La violenza ordinata come una prestazione secondo una struttura in quattro fasi: il cliente commissiona e finanzia il reato ad un organizzatore, responsabile di procurare armi e logistica e che funge da intermediario con il reclutatore che ricerca gli esecutori, per lo più minorenni. L’autore effettivo sta in fondo alla catena. La squadra Grimm vuole sovvertire questo modello in ogni fase. In sei mesi di attività ha fermato 63 autori di reati, 40 compici, 84 reclutatori e 6 clienti istigatori. Fulcro per garantire un’azione tempestiva e coordinata sono la condivisione di intelligence transfrontaliera e una più stretta collaborazione con le aziende tecnologiche per individuare e bloccare le attività di reclutamento sui social media. Non c’è solo la Germania nell’occhio del ciclone. Anche a Marsiglia nel novembre 2024 la guerra alla droga sfuggiva completamente al controllo. Gli omicidi più raccapriccianti commessi da adolescenti, assoldati tramite i social dai narcotrafficanti in carcere. Nello stesso periodo la polizia spagnola ha smantellato ad Alicante una gang svedese che, utilizzava il servizio di messaggistica Telegram per reclutare minorenni per omicidi e attentati in Scandinavia. In Svezia in cinque anni i giovani incarcerati sono raddoppiati. Diamant Salihu, della rete svedese SVT, conosce i casi: offerte di lavoro via Telegram, un milione di corone svedesi per un assassinio in Danimarca, ti pagano viaggio, vitto, alloggio, “li fanno sentire di essere qualcuno”. La criminalità mira a giovani influenzabili, vuoi per cattive amicizie, vuoi per insoddisfazione; devono spedire una copia del loro documento di identità per assicurare di non essere investigatori in incognito. A quel punto scatta la trappola: la gang sa chi sono, se si ritirano si ritrovano con una taglia sui social. Passo, passo le istruzioni e si deve poi fare un video come prova dell’esecuzione effettiva del crimine: il mandante viene informato quasi in diretta. Le riprese rilanciate sui social assolvono poi anche come avvertimento a non sgarrare. L’ex capo dell’Interpol Jürgen Stock, che adesso insegna criminologia all’Università di Gießen, ha confermato alla tv tedesca come i giovani siano “strumenti” adatti per le gang, creano una distanza tra “l’esecuzione del crimine e la persona che lo pianifica che non si sporca le mani”. Giornalisti del programma tedesco “strg_F” di ARD sono entrati in contatto con un organizzatore olandese che si è definito apertamente “mediatore di omicidi”. Il listino prezzi varia dai 3.000 ai 7.000 euro per un attentato e dai 15.000 ai 25.000 euro per un assassinio su commissione. Per l’omicidio in gruppo di un giornalista famoso, come Peter de Vries, il budget parte però da centomila euro. È una mossa calcolata: “Se c’è un lavoro da svolgere ad Amburgo, spesso si fanno arrivare persone dal Belgio o dai Paesi Bassi … molto più difficile rintracciare il colpevole”. L’età: “Si possono incaricare anche i dodicenni. Possono fare qualsiasi cosa, assolutamente qualsiasi cosa”. Le ricompense in questo caso misere, un adolescente riceve 500 euro per un attentato; altri aspirano solo ad una Playstation. “Alcuni lo fanno addirittura gratis. A volte praticamente implorano per questo tipo di lavori”. Sperano che questo conferisca loro un certo status nel mondo criminale, consentendogli di ottenere altri contratti. “Credo che nel 2025-2026 questi lavori criminali gireranno per lo più attraverso i social media, è semplicemente come ordinare una pizza”, dichiara il mediatore, ma aggiunge, tirarsi indietro è pericoloso, si sconta “dieci volte tanto”. Alcuni esponenti della CDU e dell’AfD in Germania hanno chiesto di abbassare l’età della responsabilità penale, ma l’ex capo dell’Interpol Stock ha dichiarato alla rete tedesca che “questi problemi non possono essere risolti solo attraverso il diritto penale… l’obiettivo è quello della prevenzione”, perseguire i reclutatori può essere solo uno dei pilastri di una strategia globale, le strutture all’interno delle reti criminali possono essere facilmente sostituite. È fondamentale raggiungere invece prima i giovani a rischio. I tre ministeri tedeschi competenti: Giustizia, Interno e della Famiglia, rimandano i reporter a uno studio sulle cause della violenza contro bambini e adolescenti, annunciato nell’accordo di coalizione, ma ancora in fase di progettazione. Il lavoro di prevenzione è principalmente responsabilità decentrata dei Länder e dei Comuni, le associazioni giovanili e le organizzazioni civiche segnalano però tagli e riduzioni dei servizi. L'articolo In Europa la criminalità organizzata arruola i minorenni on-line: dai social ai giochi di ruolo, come vengono adescati proviene da Il Fatto Quotidiano.

ROME — Three top Italian officials in Giorgia Meloni’s government helped a Libyan warlord escape justice earlier this year and concealed secret meetings about his case from parliament, according to a report to the legislature summarizing the prosecution’s case. The events surrounding the arrest and prompt release of Osama Al-Masri Njeem, wanted by the International Criminal Court, have become a national scandal. The government’s critics argue he was repatriated to avoid retaliation from Libya, which could have targeted Italian energy interests or allowed more migrant boats to cross the Mediterranean. Al-Masri, a long-time enforcer in Tripoli’s notorious Mitiga prison, had been arrested in January in Turin after attending a Juventus football match, but was released after only 48 hours. The ICC accuses him of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including torture, murder and sexual violence. He is accused of 22 rapes and 36 murders. The role of two Italian government ministers and a cabinet secretary in letting him go is now under investigation, and the parliament will take a final vote on Oct. 9 as to whether their parliamentary immunity from prosecution should be lifted. Ahead of the vote, Federico Gianassi, an MP for the opposition Democratic Party and parliamentary rapporteur to the committee that oversees cases against ministers, summarized the prosecutors’ case in a report. POLITICO saw a copy. SAFE MAJORITY While Meloni has a majority in the parliament that will likely shield her ministers from standing trial, the proceedings still threaten to embarrass her and leave her vulnerable to accusations that her government brushes aside international law under pressure over hot-button issues such as migration.   Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi and Cabinet Secretary Alfredo Mantovano are accused by prosecutors of helping a criminal escape justice from the ICC, and abuse of office after Al-Masri’s arrest on an Interpol warrant on Jan. 19. A spokesman for Nordio said that as minister of justice he had been “obliged to carry out a preliminary political and legal assessment before forwarding requests,” which took two days, leading to Al-Masri’s release after a procedural error. The documents received from the ICC contained “doubts and inaccuracies” that rendered them void, the spokesman added. Regarding his part in authorizing Al-Masri’s removal on a state flight, Interior Minister Piantedosi said Al-Masri “was released and expatriated for urgent security reasons” and “because of the danger posed by the subject.” Mantovano’s office did not reply to a request for comment. FEAR OF RETALIATION According to Gianassi’s report, the ministers held online meetings on the days following the arrest in January where they were warned by the intelligence services that holding Al-Masri could lead to “retaliation” against Italy’s “economic interests linked to the [state-owned oil giant] ENI gas plant in Melliah and its immigration interests, given that the RADA militia is the entity that exercises security powers in the relevant areas indicated and that relations with it have strengthened over the last year.” Al-Masri was a leading figure in RADA, Libya’s “Special Deterrence Force for the Countering of Terrorism and Organized Crime.”  The officials were also warned of the danger that Italian citizens could be arrested in a tit-for-tat act of revenge for Al-Masri’s detention. Cabinet Secretary Alfredo Mantovano’s office did not reply to a request for comment. | Fabio Frustaci/EPA During the meetings, the ministers decided on a “strategy of non-intervention” that led to his release on a procedural error, the report to MPs said. This inertia permitted Al-Masri’s release and the loss of potentially important evidence on phones and in documents. His return to Libya on an Italian state jet to be greeted by cheering crowds “facilitated the continuation of similar conduct,” the report said. The flight “was not justified by security reasons” and “assured Al-Masri an immediate and protected return, without the possibility of being arrested,” Gianassi said. Accounting to parliament on Feb. 5, the week after Al-Masri’s release, the two ministers failed to disclose the ministerial meetings where the case was discussed and where the strategy of not pushing ahead with the case in Italy was adopted, the report noted. The ministers and cabinet secretary acted on “mere political opportunism, based on generic fears and not backed up by concrete evidence, which shows the Italian government’s weakness in front of armed gangs that operate abroad and violate human rights,” Gianassi told the committee deciding on ministerial prosecutions on Wednesday. If the ministers are protected from standing trial as expected because of Meloni’s majority, Al-Masri’s alleged victims could then appeal to the European Court of Human Rights. Prosecutors at the ICC have also called on judges to open infraction proceedings against the Italian government that would refer Italy to the U.N. Security Council for violating its international obligations. A ruling is expected in the next few months. 

LONDON — In the beating sun of the Downing Street garden last summer — weeks after winning an historic landslide — a downbeat Keir Starmer warned Brits “things will get worse before they get better.” His MPs — and voters — are still waiting desperately for the upturn. As the U.K. prime minister marks his first year in office this week, he’s beset by huge problems that show no signs of easing. This was on stark display Tuesday night. His Labour government, which has a huge working House of Commons majority, was forced to fillet a plan to reform social security after enraging Labour MPs. The affair raised serious questions about Starmer’s grip on his own party. It only gets harder from here on out. With populists breathing down Starmer’s neck, undocumented migrants continue to reach U.K. shores in record numbers. Economic growth remains elusive. And squeezed public sector workers — despite sizable pay hikes — are getting restless. A year ago Starmer was elected on a platform of “change” by voters furious with the Conservatives, who burned through leaders as public services creaked. But after 12 months of major political missteps and screeching U-turns, voters and Labour MPs alike are now turning on the prime minister. “I think this year is going to be bumpy, choppy,” one long-serving Labour MP predicted of Starmer’s second year in office. This, they warned, will be the “crunch” year for his leadership. “Year two is the real test of: Come on, can you deliver?” agreed Luke Tryl, executive director of progressive polling think tank More in Common. Starmer could yet prove his doubters wrong, but to do that he needs to show he is really making progress. FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES Tuesday’s welfare debacle highlights an immediate problem for Starmer as year two looms: party management. MPs have now got a taste of rebellion — and have forced major concessions they won’t soon forget. “There is now a new core of MPs who are going to be permanently or very often on the naughty step,” the MP, a welfare rebel, who was quoted above predicted. Tuesday’s welfare debacle highlights an immediate problem for Keir Starmer as year two looms: party management. | Andy Rain/EPA They said the “baseline” of rebels had now increased. “I think they’ve sucked up so much so diligently they are now kind of beginning to look around and think that this isn’t what it’s meant to be like,” the MP added. Gavin Barwell, a former chief of staff to Tory Prime Minister Theresa May as she lost her authority over Brexit, warned that “once backbenchers think a government can be pushed into U-turns, they’re more likely to try. You can’t undo that. “Everyone is now going to think this is a government that, if enough of us call out a policy, they’re going to be forced into listening to us, essentially, so that is a problem.” Starmer has thrown his arms around his Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney as the welfare crisis deepened, with the Times reporting that he told his Cabinet: “We will not resile from our record of achievement and we will not turn on our staff — including our chief of staff, without whom none of us would be sitting around this cabinet table.” But the scale of the climbdown on Tuesday night means questions will continue to swirl about the makeup of Starmer’s top team. Meanwhile, ministerial frustrations about the slow pace of change in Whitehall abound. But a former Labour Cabinet minister from the Tony Blair era said: “It’s a weak minister who makes that excuse. Only weak ministers blame the officials.” AUTUMN RENEWAL With MPs heading off on their summer break in a matter of weeks, it will be Labour’s autumn party conference, swiftly followed by the setting of the U.K.’s budget, which offer the first big tests of whether Starmer can turn things around. His team are already eyeing the conference as a chance for a “reset.” “What that reset moment looks like, I don’t think even the government knows, but I think they’ve now realized that they need one,” said one Labour figure who speaks regularly to No. 10. They were granted anonymity, like others in this piece, to speak candidly about internal party discussions. A second Labour figure close to No. 10 framed the conference and the autumn budget as natural opportunities to “redefine what you are and where you are going.” Yet those efforts to reclaim the narrative could be quickly overshadowed if the government’s spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, downgrades its U.K. economic forecast. The U.K. chancellor has pledged that the government’s budget should be on course to be balanced or in surplus by 2029-2030, with debt falling as a share of the economy. The rules — meant to shore up market confidence and to show that Labour can cut its cloth accordingly — severely restrain Reeves’ room for maneuver. The rules — meant to shore up market confidence and to show that Labour can cut its cloth accordingly — severely restrain Rachel Reeves’ room for maneuver. | Andy Rain/EFE via EPA Helen Miller, incoming director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, says reopening the Pandora’s box of departmental spending “seems unlikely” so soon after Reeves’ Treasury carried out a wide-ranging government spending review. The huge U-turns on welfare — yet to be costed in full — make things tougher still. “That leaves tax rises,” Miller says. But this would be a hugely tricky moment for Reeves, who pledged not to increase taxes on working people in Labour’s manifesto and already stretched that definition with a controversial hike in employer taxes in the government’s first few months. “If she needed a big tax increase, like a large amount of money, it would be genuinely hard to do without touching one of the big tax bases,” Miller added. Pressure on Reeves’ budget could also come from public sector workers desperate for higher pay awards. Ministers swiftly settled pay disputes last July shortly after coming into office. But the British Medical Association, a trade union representing doctors, is currently balloting members for strike action that could last six months. If other unions follow their lead, some services could grind to a halt — hindering Labour’s aspiration for high economic growth. “What they did last year in terms of accepting the [pay review body] recommendations is absolutely a step in the right direction,” said Paul Nowak, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress. “Do I think it is in the medium, long term, enough to resolve those recruitment and retention issues in public services? Absolutely not.” STOP THE BOATS After reckoning that the battered Tories are a sideshow for now, Starmer has identified Nigel Farage’s populist-right Reform UK party as Labour’s key opponent. Local elections at which Reform stormed to a host of victories nationwide only bolstered that theory. Yet on a hot-button issue that animates Reform UK voters, the stakes are high. Labour MPs in Reform-facing seats are growing anxious about what they see as little visible progress in their constituencies on either stemming the flow of small boats boarded by irregular migrants across the English Channel — or curbing the use of hotels housing asylum seekers. “The biggie is boats where we haven’t made progress quickly enough,” a second MP said. Starmer’s more collegial approach — working with Interpol, amping up cooperation with other European countries, and investing in intelligence — must “start to have real impact,” the second MP said. If the numbers remain high “it might be that that turns out to be really, really tough, and we don’t really know how to solve this problem,” they warned. STOP THE WAR Addressing these issues may not even end up at the top of Starmer’s priority list. The attritional war between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East will also continue to vie for his attention. In a weekend interview, Starmer admitted only having turned his attention “fully” to the growing welfare rebellion when he returned from the June 24-25 NATO summit in The Hague and after being “heavily focused” on foreign affairs.  While all prime ministers find themselves consumed by international affairs to some extent, Keir Starmer has an enormous amount on his plate. | Sem Van der Wal/EPA While all prime ministers find themselves consumed by international affairs to some extent, Starmer has an enormous amount on his plate. The PM is also playing a pivotal role in post-Brexit talks with the EU following his much-vaunted “reset” with the bloc agreed in May. Starmer has so far held these negotiations close rather than delegating to his foreign ministers, and they will be another drag on his time away from domestic matters. Some members of Rishi Sunak’s former administration argue Starmer could take a leaf out of his Conservative predecessor’s book. Sunak effectively delegated foreign policy to former Prime Minister David Cameron, who was brought back into the Tory fold as a big hitter. Starmer, however, is unlikely to loosen his grip on his international role. With the help of National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell — a Blair-era veteran — it’s the sphere where he has been seen to enjoy real success, keeping up European support for Ukraine and managing relations with the ever-unpredictable Donald Trump. “The election of Trump in November sharpened so many of the challenges the U.K. is facing,” said Olivia O’Sullivan, director of the UK in the World program at the Chatham House foreign policy think tank. Britain is also in a bind on China. It wants to drum up foreign investment in its pursuit of growth — but must rely on a deeply China-skeptical U.S. as its key security and defense partner. A planned Starmer visit to China in the coming year could collide with efforts to keep Trump onside — not to mention tough-on-China language in the U.K.-U.S. trade deal the two sides agreed earlier this year. “The big question is whether that language is actually going to mean anything in practice, because Trump is very unpredictable,” O’Sullivan said.   Starmer will also face renewed calls to take a tougher stance with Israel amid its continued campaign in Gaza — a galvanizing subject among many of his MPs, some of whom face losing their seats at the next election because of it. A third Labour MP, who is campaigning for the British government to recognize Palestine as a state, said “the pressure will continue from the backbenches” despite international efforts being stalled for now. “Keir has been consistently behind the curve on this, and it’s a serious problem,” the MP said. “My voters want to know why he hasn’t done more.” VOTER ANGER Britain’s next general election should still be years away. But after a local elections drubbing earlier this year, two big tests are coming up that will keep Starmer’s government in campaign mode. Votes for the devolved administrations in Wales and Scotland will be closely watched to see if Starmer is recovering lost ground — or opening up new vulnerabilities. A YouGov poll in May put Plaid Cymru, the center-left Welsh nationalist party, in the lead for next year’s Welsh Senedd election, while Ipsos polling put the Scottish National Party in pole position in Scotland this week. Both votes take place amid real frustration among voters. “We won the election because voters were furious. We had a short grace period after coming into office. But almost immediately that fury transferred straight onto us,” a Labour staffer said. “Sure the government has made mistakes, but the level of patience among voters is just non-existent,” they added. “People want simple and immediate-sounding answers. And Nigel Farage and Reform are good at capitalizing on that.” Tryl of More in Common said that “levels of anger are off the charts in focus groups. I keep telling people I’m slightly worr[ied] that I’m coming across as hysterical, but it is quite deeply unhealthy.”  “The forthcoming 2024 election concealed a lot of the anger,” Tryl said. “Then Labour having come in and not met expectations, that has really bubbled up.” THE FIGHTBACK A spate of interviews around Starmer’s first anniversary as PM have shown him to be in a reflective mood. He admitted his Downing Street garden warning had “squeezed the hope out,” adding: “We were so determined to show how bad it was that we forgot people wanted something to look forward to as well.” The second Labour figure close to No. 10 quoted above also reckons Starmer’s team now know their enemy: “It’s not the Tories anymore — it’s the forces of populism, and not just Reform.” “The PM can be a bulwark against populism and division. If the next election is going to be populism versus delivery, competence versus protest, I can’t think of a better person to do that than Keir,” they said. Allies also point out that Starmer’s first year as Labour leader almost culminated in his resignation after a drubbing in a crucial by-election, but he battled on to prove the doubters wrong, see off multiple Tory leaders, and win a landslide. Starmer has said that having cleared up the Conservative mess, people will “see the difference that the Labour government made.”  Others are going to need much more convincing. “If you asked Keir Starmer to sit down and write on a piece of paper the three things he’d be remembered for in 50 years, what would he say? I bet he couldn’t do it,” said the former Labour Cabinet minister. Noah Keate and Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting.