BRUSSELS ― When Ursula von der Leyen returned for a second term as European Commission president late last year, her advisers identified reforming the EU’s next long-term budget as one of her toughest missions. Full of hidden landmines, competing demands and squabbles from Lisbon to Latvia, it was clear it wouldn’t take much for it to blow up in her face. Most governments don’t want to give the EU a penny more than they already do ― the European Parliament demands the opposite. The Ukraine conflict has sparked a rapid need for defense investment ― yet the EU takes cash away from farmers at its peril. While those sort of tensions aren’t new, the bloc is more polarized than ever and, despite a return to power that looked more like a coronation than an election, von der Leyen’s political support is fragile, and looking increasingly frayed. The muddled and opaque way the budget for the seven-year period from 2028 was announced on Wednesday didn’t help. BICKERING OVER FIGURES Planning had started early. Anticipating a brutal negotiation, von der Leyen and her chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, kicked off talks with member countries as far back as 18 months ago, before she even knew she’d have a second term in power, according to an EU official. The idea was to gather input, avoid a messy fight down the line and be able to present a budget that had considerable buy-in. Merely on the evidence of the past 48 hours or so, that strategy appears shaky. At the time Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin was scheduled to present the plan to the European Parliament on Wednesday at midday, officials were still bickering over final figures. They had burned the midnight oil on Tuesday night, with top officials from the teams of the 27 commissioners locked in talks in the Berlaymont ― the Commission’s HQ in Brussels ― until 2am Wednesday, resuming at 8am. Then the commissioners themselves, whose weekly meeting is usually a mere rubber-stamping exercise, met on Wednesday lunchtime, and it turned into a political dogfight almost right up until Serafin finally appeared for the launch. To the annoyance of MEPs and parliamentary officials, Serafin arrived four hours late. The presentation was riddled with confusion about what the numbers exactly meant and how they’d be calculated, and lawmakers were outraged for not having received the figures beforehand. “We hope you brought some document with you as well, as this distinguished house has not been informed,” lawmaker Siegfried Mureșan sniped at Serafin, who hails from the same center-right group. In fact, even von der Leyen’s team of commissioners weren’t aware of the overall figures until a few hours earlier. Explaining the murky process, one official close to a commissioner said: “She told us how much she would cut from our program but we didn’t know how much she would cut from those of our peers.” For everyone apart from the small close-knit group that the president confides in, it made working out the exact overall policy incredibly difficult to comprehend. RAMSHACKLE ALLIANCE In recent months, criticism of von der Leyen and her centralized way of decision-making has increased but, for the first time, simmering internal opposition burst to the surface. Commissioners, mainly those from different political colors, forced her to back down. Von der Leyen’s big idea had been to merge a plethora of different pots of the budget into plans for each country that would only pay out when governments carry out reforms. In her view, this system would have encouraged recalcitrant countries to step up their game while increasing Brussels’ leverage over capitals. But as the weeks have gone by, a ramshackle alliance of farmers, regions and lawmakers coalesced to push back against her big vision. Inside the Commission, an unlikely union between a Romanian Socialist, an Italian right-winger and a Luxembourgish moderate whose brother is a farmer demanded major concessions. “They all managed to save face,” said a Commission official close to the discussion. Another said they “fought hard and did all they could to protect their policies.” Faced with threats of major cuts to the EU’s giant farming budget, Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen managed to safeguard €300 billion that goes directly in the pockets of farmers. For the Common Agricultural Policy, “it’s not a revolution but an evolution,” Hansen told reporters, in an effort to reassure angry farmers who protested on Brussels streets on Wednesday. Another open front for von der Leyen was Social Rights Commissioner Roxana Mînzatu, who fought a rearguard battle to preserve the European Social Fund which caters for the training of the unemployed and other vulnerable groups. While she failed to secure an amount for the ESF, she obtained a commitment that 14 percent of the overall budget must account for social spending. Meanwhile, Cohesion and Reforms Commissioner Raffaele Fitto pushed back against the plan to expand the power of national governments to the detriment of regions. He feared that such a project would have eroded his power within the Commission and undermined the EU’s regional policy, which he oversees. This was one of the thorniest issues during the two days of back-to-back meetings between heads of cabinets of commissioners. In Fitto’s team’s meetings with Seibert “it was all about this,” an official said. He secured a commitment to ringfence €218 billion of funding directly for less-developed regions. Von der Leyen has had a tricky start to her second term as Commission president. She’s faced a European Parliament no-confidence vote and warned it was her “absolute last chance.” She’s been confronted with accusations that she’s teamed up with far-right lawmakers to push through legislation, ignoring the centrist groups who helped her secure a second term. And she lost a court ruling over her “Pfizergate” exchange of text messages with a Covid-19 vaccine maker. The next two years of negotiations over the budget were never going to be easy. The way it has started has made a tough job even tougher. Nicholas Vinocur contributed reporting.

STRASBOURG, France — Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday survived a no-confidence vote in her leadership of the European Commission. A majority of members of the European Parliament, who voted on a motion submitted by the hard-right, backed the Commission president. If she had lost the vote, von der Leyen and the rest of her Commission would have had to stand down, throwing the EU into chaos. 360 MEPs voted against the motion, with 175 in favor and 18 abstaining. Out of 720 MEPs, 553 showed up to cast a ballot. The motion would have needed 357 votes to pass. While von der Leyen, as expected, lives to fight another day, her troubles are far from over. The vote — the first such no-confidence attempt since 2014 — exposes increasing political opposition to a Commission president who, like much of Europe, seems to have drifted to the right, putting her at odds with two of the major parties that brought her to power. Von der Leyen may have survived but political families from across the spectrum used the procedure to air their grievances against the Commission, whether on transparency and the over-centralization of power, backtracking on the Green Deal, or accusations of violating the EU’s institutional procedures. It has also shaken up the coalition of parties that support von der Leyen’s second term, with the Socialists and liberals increasingly at odds with the Commission president. In the run-up to the vote, both groups threatened to abstain over their concerns that the Commission is drifting to the right.   However, the liberals backed down, saying they did not want to take part in the extreme right’s “games” with Europe’s stability, according to a Renew spokesperson. The Socialists followed suit on Thursday evening after securing a concession from von der Leyen on the EU’s long-term budget, which the Commission is slated to present next week. The Commission president promised the center-left she would keep the European Social Fund, which is meant to tackle poverty and support vulnerable groups, as part of the budget, despite earlier indications that it would be dropped. Among Socialists and Democrats, said Parliament Vice President Katarina Barley, many are determined that this will be the “absolute last chance.” Gheorghe Piperea, a Romanian lawmaker from the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), who brought the motion against von der Leyen, told POLITICO that he expected the motion to fail, but that the exercise was healthy for the EU. He added that he expects the move to “open Pandora’s box” by showing that “it is possible” to challenge the Commission president. Von der Leyen should brace for “several” more censure efforts, Piperea said. The EPP disagrees. “The day we return from holidays, we would almost have forgotten about this,” predicted EPP vice-chair Siegfried Mureșan. This article has been updated.

Center-left lawmakers will not support Thursday’s motion of no confidence in Ursula von der Leyen, giving a timely boost to the beleaguered European Commission president. In a U-turn, the European Parliament’s Socialists and Democrats dropped its abstention threats, according to two group officials. To win their support, von der Leyen promised to keep funds dedicated to social spending in the EU’s seven year budget from 2028, which is currently being drawn up. Had the Socialists abstained, von der Leyen would still almost certainly have won Thursday’s vote, but it would have raised doubts about the Commission’s support in Parliament and ability to push through legislation. “S&D has achieved the inclusion of ESF+ [European Social Fund] in next MFF [the EU’s long-term budget, known as the multiannual financial framework] ― a major win for people across Europe,” said a group spokesperson. “Yesterday the ESF+ was out of the MFF. Today it is in it, thanks to the firmness of the S&D family,” the spokesperson added. The motion of no confidence is expected to fail to meet the two-thirds majority threshold, given the centrist groups, comprising von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party, the Socialists, and the liberals of Renew Europe, have now all confirmed they will vote against. “Von der Leyen has made a major concession on a topic that is dear to the S&D,” said MEP René Repasi, leader of the German SPD in the Parliament. “I think that she finally understood what is happening in the Parliament after Monday‘s debate and she saw the need to act,” he added. “We recognize this effort and we take it into consideration when taking our final decision how to vote tomorrow.” Ahead of the presentation of the next EU seven year long budget slated for next week, the Socialists, the second-largest group in the European Parliament, linked their support to the preservation of the European Social Fund, which is supposed to tackle poverty and support vulnerable groups.  Commissioner for social rights Roxana Mînzatu, herself a Socialist, also led a push inside the EU executive to save the fund. The EPP’s budget lead negotiator, Siegfried Mureșan, shrugged at the Socialists’ victory chants. This was always the S&D’s main demand, he said, adding that regardless of the vote the Parliament was always going to demand the Social Fund be included. PAYMENTS TO REGIONS Von der Leyen already conceded key Parliament demands on Tuesday evening to secure the support of centrist MEPs. The EPP’s budget lead negotiator, Siegfried Mureșan, shrugged at the Socialists’ victory chants. | Teresa Suarez/EPA During a high-stakes meeting with party chairs in Strasbourg on Tuesday, von der Leyen said that payments to regions — which currently make up a third of the EU’s multi-year budget — will continue to be handed out to local authorities as opposed to national governments in the new budget. Supporters of the move said that von der Leyen’s about-face is a “gamechanger” as it will make it harder for autocratic leaders, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, to cut EU funding to regions governed by political rivals. Von der Leyen’s plan to dramatically increase the power of national governments in handling regional funds has been criticized by lawmakers from across the spectrum and by several of her own commissioners. They argue that it would undermine local democracy and widen the gap between the richer and poorer parts of Europe. Sarah Wheaton contributed to this report.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised more power for EU regions in an effort to quell a brewing parliamentary revolt before Thursday’s no-confidence vote. Socialists and Liberals are threatening to abstain during the vote in an attempt to squeeze political commitments from von der Leyen on the bloc’s next seven-year budget, which she will unveil next Wednesday. Von der Leyen extended an olive branch to critics on the eve of a crucial no-confidence vote in the European Parliament that could severely dent her leadership. During a high-stakes meeting with party chairs in Strasbourg on Tuesday, von der Leyen said that payments to regions — which currently make up a third of the EU’s multi-year budget — will continue to be handed out to local authorities as opposed to national governments in the new budget, two people in the room told POLITICO. Von der Leyen’s offer, however, was not enough to quell concerns from the Socialists and Democrats, who have been increasingly critical of her leadership in recent weeks. “We missed clarity and commitment … If nothing changes, it will be difficult for the S&D to decide not to abstain on Thursday,” a spokesperson for the group told POLITICO after Tuesday’s meeting.  Von der Leyen is expected to survive the vote even if the Socialist and Liberal parliamentary groups abstain, as the motion would need a two-thirds majority in Parliament to pass. But it would send a strong message that she can’t count on Parliament to back her unconditionally. The Socialists, the second-largest group in the European Parliament, are linking their support to the preservation of the European Social Fund, which is supposed to tackle poverty and support vulnerable groups.  Commissioner for social rights Roxana Mînzatu, herself a Socialist, is leading a push inside the EU executive to save the fund. “If you cut this out of the budget, you hit Europe at its heart, and what will remain is a Europe without a soul,” Socialist lawmaker Mohammed Chahim said in the European Parliament. CONCESSION TO REGIONS Supporters say that von der Leyen’s about-face is a “gamechanger” as it will make it harder for autocratic leaders, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, to cut EU funding to regions governed by political rivals. Yet von der Leyen’s plan to dramatically increase the power of national governments in handling regional funds has been criticized by lawmakers from across the spectrum and by several of her own commissioners. They argue that it will undermine local democracy and widen the gap between the richer and poorer parts of Europe. In a major concession, however, von der Leyen on Tuesday guaranteed that regions will continue to directly receive amounts that are determined in Brussels. She had previously announced the move in a private meeting with Polish Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin, who is also campaigning for a stronger role for regions. “This is an important demand for the European Parliament,” said Siegfried Mureșan, the budget negotiator for the center-right European People’s Party. Lawmakers and Italian regions commissioner Raffaele Fitto, however, are pressuring von der Leyen to go one step further. They support maintaining a mechanism ― known as the Berlin formula ― that allocates a major share of the cohesion cash to underdeveloped regions across the bloc. Discussions over this sensitive issue are expected to be resolved over the weekend during high-stakes talks between von der Leyen and several commissioners.