BRUSSELS — The European Union needs to draft in Mario Draghi, the mastermind behind reforms to revive its single market, to ensure that member countries rally behind efforts to boost growth and prosperity, a senior European lawmaker said Tuesday. Member countries should “mandate Draghi” to build political consensus for reform and pierce through national “deep state” resistance to force a radical rethink of the single market project, Pascal Canfin, a French Renew MEP, told POLITICO’s Competitive Europe Summit in Brussels. “We need somebody that could do so at the very top level, with heads of state and government and quite deep state level,” Canfin said, arguing that the bloc has reached a “historical crossroads” where it must choose between deeper integration or economic irrelevance. In 2024, the former Italian Prime Minister and head of the European Central Bank delivered a report on Europe’s competitiveness deficit that one commissioner has referred to as the “bible” for Ursula von der Leyen’s second Commission. EU leaders backed a plan to relaunch the 30-year old single market — with its freedoms in the movement of goods, capital, services and people — at a summit earlier this month. According to Canfin, Draghi’s work is not yet done, and the former Italian leader could build a “coalition of the willing” of member states willing to integrate their economies. Canfin also suggested that the requirement for consensus among all 27 member states has become a challenge.  “It’s not an objective not to do it at 27, but maybe at the end, we will not be able to do it for political reasons,” Canfin said, specifically citing the frequent vetoes and disruptions caused by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.  The move toward a multi-speed Europe is increasingly viewed by proponents of integration as the only way to compete with the massive industrial subsidies and streamlined decision-making of the United States and China. Canfin described a recurring cycle of political failure where national leaders travel to Brussels and make commitments, only to see them disassembled at home. “They go to Brussels … then they go back home, and there are all the people locally, in Paris, in Berlin, in Rome, in Madrid, saying the opposite,” Canfin said. “Including in the deep state, including in some companies that have built the knowledge to manage and navigate complexity.” Canfin identified three obvious candidates for accelerated integration: defense, energy, and finance.  “The political will has always been in the hands of the capitals,” Canfin said. “Technical, yes, but today, would we be politically able?”

LONDON — The House of Lords has struck down the government’s controversial proposal to direct where pension schemes invest, handing Rachel Reeves’ Treasury a significant defeat. The government had sought to give itself a controversial “reserve power” in the Pension Schemes Bill, which would allow it to direct where pension schemes invest, in a bid to boost U.K. and private assets. That provision was met with fury by the pensions industry, and Thursday’s amendment shows enough peers feel the same way. An amendment to the Pension Schemes Bill — tabled by Liberal Democrat peer Sharon Bowles, Conservative peers Deborah Stedman-Scott and Thérèse Coffey, and independent peer Ros Altmann — won a vote in the upper chamber Thursday by 217 to 113. It removes the provision on the asset allocation condition in the legislation. The defeat is a blow to Pensions Minister Torsten Bell, who only last week tried to reassure industry and peers by telling POLITICO that he would table “clarifications” to the bill outlining that the power would only align to Mansion House Accord signatories and targets. It means ministers will now be required to reconsider the proposed law. “This power must be removed,” said Stedman-Scott. “It is a massive overstep from the government, and despite the assurances of the minister, no one is yet convinced that this can remai.” The amendment removing the threat of a mandate will now go back to the House of Commons, where Bell will need to decide whether to include new changes to reinstate the power.  Altmann got another victory in the report stage debate on Thursday by winning a vote on her amendment to extend the time limit defining an unused pension pot as “dormant” from 12 months to two years.  Under government plans, all “dormant” small pots worth under £1,000 will be consolidated into larger schemes.

FRANKFURT — Europeans will feel the pain of the war on Iran in their wallets this year, even if things don’t get any worse from here on, the European Central Bank warned on Thursday. The ECB’s new forecasts show that inflation is set to rise to 2.6 percent this year—well above the 1.9 percent forecast as recently as December, while growth will slow as businesses and households have to divert more of their spending power to essentials such as energy. “The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth,” the ECB said, drawing on new quarterly forecasts for the eurozone outlook. The forecasts were published after its policy-making Governing Council left the Bank’s official interest rates unchanged, as expected. The renewed hit comes just as purchasing power was starting to recover from the last surge in prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That pushed headline inflation up to 10 percent within a year. On the upside, this forecast suggests that the ECB expects the problem to correct itself without it needing to raise interest rates aggressively. It sees inflation easing back towards the ECB’s 2 percent target within a couple of years, the time horizon that the ECB uses to guide its policy decisions. The economy is forecast to grow, albeit slightly less than previously expected: the Bank trimmed its forecast to 0.9 percent from 1.2 percent for this year, and to 1.3 percent from 1.4 percent for next year. Central banks are generally reluctant to respond to so-called supply shocks because their main policy tool — control over interest rates — only works with long and often uncertain time lags, while the geopolitical situation behind the supply shock can change at very short notice. However, they have to balance that against the risk of appearing complacent and letting expectations of high inflation become self-fulfilling, as constant price increases by retailers lead to more aggressive pay demands from workers. In its regular policy statement, the ECB stressed that it is “closely monitoring the situation” and will set monetary policy as appropriately. Investors have bet that this means raising the key deposit rate twice this year, to 2.5 percent. But policymakers around the globe have cautioned against rushing to such conclusions. “The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters following the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. “It is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.”  ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to echo that message at her press conference later on Thursday. However, the Bank did say that it had looked at the possible consequences of an extended disruption of global oil and gas supplies, and warned that this “would in the supply of oil and gas “would result in inflation being above, and growth being below, the baseline projections.” There is broad consensus among central bankers and private-sector economists that the longer the conflict lasts, the more likely it is to create so-called “stagflation” — a combination of economic stagnation and inflation. While the ECB, like other central banks around the world, was content to adopt a “wait-and-see” policy on Thursday, analysts don’t expect its patience to last very long. A clearer picture is expected to emerge as soon as next month. “If the current situation persists through to the April meeting, a hike becomes a distinct possibility,” according to ABN AMRO’s chief economist Nick Kounis.

President Donald Trump is demanding that the Federal Reserve immediately lower borrowing costs. But the war in the Middle East has now made any interest rate cuts much less likely in 2026 — not just in the U.S. but around the world. With oil prices surging past $100 a barrel and Gulf shipping routes disrupted by Iran, governments and investors are bracing for a repeat of the 2022 energy shock from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And from Washington to Frankfurt, and London to Tokyo, the world’s central banks are likely to strike a more wary tone on inflation while assessing the fallout during a flurry of policy meetings taking place this week. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a channel through which roughly a fifth of global oil passes, is pushing up costs not only for energy and transportation, but also for other key goods that are shipped through the waterway. The result could be a toxic mix for central banks: higher prices and lower employment, two problems they’re not equipped to address simultaneously. “My best guess, but spoken with no conviction at all, is that this gets sorted out somehow in the next few weeks, and by the middle of the year, oil prices have come back down a fair amount,” said William English, a former top staffer at the Fed who is now a professor at Yale University. “But there’s a real risk, of course, that things go on for longer and are more damaging. And in that case, all bets are off.” The specter of a prolonged global energy crunch could dash the hopes of consumers, businesses and investors worldwide for rate cuts this year — and in some cases, throw those plans in reverse. No immediate moves are likely except in Australia, which raised its target rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday. But markets have already repriced their bets on what comes next from monetary policymakers. Indeed, if the Fed does cut rates later this year, it might be one of the few major central banks that does so, given that other economies like Europe are more exposed to higher energy costs than the U.S. Before the war, investors saw a chance of cuts from the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Now they’re pricing in an altogether tighter policy stance: at least one ECB rate hike this year, a 60 percent chance of a BoE increase, fewer and later cuts from the Fed and more urgency in raising rates from the Bank of Japan. Central bankers will prefer to wait until they get a better gauge of the economic repercussions from the conflict because “the shock could turn out to be negligible or very large,” said EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach. But few doubt the need for strong messaging as central banks are wary of repeating 2022, when energy price shocks combined with the after-effects from Covid and fiscal stimulus to morph into the worst inflation spike in half a century. “There will be a significant contingent worrying about upside inflation risks in light of the 2022 experience,” J.P. Morgan economist Greg Fuzesi said ahead of the ECB’s policy-making council’s meeting on Thursday. The Iran conflict is further complicating efforts by Trump to demonstrate to voters that the GOP is addressing cost-of-living concerns before this year’s midterm elections. Already, the war has caused a surge in politically salient gas prices and erased some of the progress toward more affordable mortgage rates. And it’s further muddied the picture for a central bank that the president has been pressing hard to take decisive action toward rate cuts. Now, when Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials meet on Wednesday, they’re expected to be more open to the idea of rate increases later this year, though that’s still not the likeliest outcome. As Yale’s English pointed out, higher costs might ultimately increase the case for rate cuts if they slow the economy significantly. “With the higher oil prices and the shock to the global economy, the likelihood of overheating seems reduced now, so that’s one of the reasons you might be comfortable waiting through some period of higher inflation,” rather than hiking rates in response, English said. “This might be enough to push the economy into real weakness, and in that case, they might well have to cut.” But if households and businesses start to worry about a new acceleration in inflation and start expecting higher prices, that dynamic can be self-fulfilling and might call for rate hikes. Hawkish policymakers are already signaling the ECB won’t hesitate this time. “A reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than many people think,” Peter Kažimír, Slovakia’s central bank governor, told Bloomberg last week. “We will be ready to act if needed.” President Christine Lagarde pledged to ensure that consumers “don’t suffer the same inflation increases like those we saw in 2022 and 2023.” Back then, the ECB was slow to react, helping inflation surge past 10 percent. Economists say today’s backdrop looks very different: In 2022, rates were near or below zero, balance sheets were bloated and fiscal policy was highly expansionary. “When inflation rose, it did so in an environment of strong demand supported by both fiscal and monetary stimulus,” said Gerlach. Now, tighter monetary and fiscal policy should limit the risk of energy shocks spilling through the economy into second-round effects. Still, Barclays analyst Silvia Ardagna says that if medium-term inflation expectations “deteriorate significantly,” she expects “the ECB to act more swiftly than in 2022, but to tighten policy gradually.” Nick Kounis, of Dutch bank ABN AMRO, also sees a more hawkish tone. “Uncertainty on the conflict is high, but if the current situation persists through to the April meeting, a hike becomes a distinct possibility,” he said. Many analysts say the first obvious central bank casualty of the war is likely to be the Bank of England, which was widely expected to cut this week but is now seen firmly on hold. That’s because the U.K. still hasn’t quite gotten on top of the inflation that was unleashed four years ago. Andrew Benito, an economist with hedge fund Point72 in London, reckons that the inevitable increase in fuel prices and household energy bills alone will add a full percentage point to headline inflation by summer, with “second-round” impacts on other prices pushing it even further away from the BoE’s target. That, says Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja, will force the bank into some “uncomfortable trade-offs”: The U.K. economy has already slowed over the last year due to global trade uncertainty and various government tax hikes to close the budget deficit. Hiking rates when the economy is already struggling could risk needlessly making things worse. But any sign of complacency could be disproportionately punished by the markets, given that the BoE performed worse than any other major central bank during the last inflation shock (the headline rate peaked at over 11 percent). Raja expects BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to highlight the differences with 2022 — when inflation was accelerating rather than slowing — as one reason not to overreact to today’s price spike. However, he expects that Bailey, like the ECB and others, will talk tough about not letting business and households develop an inflationary mindset again. More important will be the Bank of Japan’s decisions and press conference on Thursday, due to the outsized influence of Japanese interest rates on global financial markets. For decades, Japan kept interest rates low and printed money furiously to escape deflation. As long as it did so, Japanese and foreign investors borrowed yen cheaply to throw at higher-yielding markets such as the U.S. Now, however, the BoJ’s concerns have finally switched from deflation to inflation, and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is now in a hurry to “normalize” policy. Its key interest rate, at 0.75 percent, is the lowest in the developed world outside Switzerland. But Japan, too, faces a big headwind from higher energy prices because of its dependence on imports, and Gregor Hirt, chief investment officer for Multi Asset at Allianz Global Investors, argues that the BoJ will hesitate before raising rates again. The trouble with waiting and seeing is that the yen has already lurched lower, prompting alarm in Washington and sparking rumors of possible intervention to support it. “In order to stop further weakness, the BoJ may have to move up a rate hike to stabilize the currency,” Hirt said. Meanwhile, the war has presented the Swiss National Bank, which has kept interest rates at zero since June 2025, with a different kind of conundrum. One risk is that a global “flight to safety” drives the Swiss franc to even greater heights against the euro and others. That could make so many imports cheaper that the overall inflation rate could turn negative. Alternatively, the boost in energy prices could have the same malign impact on inflation as it will elsewhere. “The SNB will probably prefer to wait and see which of the two effects will have the greater impact on inflation prospects before acting in one direction or the other,” said ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier, who expects the Swiss central bank to stay on hold. That response, shot through with varying degrees of nervousness, looks likely to be the dominant one this week. But things will look very different if the war situation hasn’t improved by the next round of meetings.

BRUSSELS — The EU’s announcement that Ukraine has accepted its offer to help repair the Druzhba oil pipeline gives Viktor Orbán a chance to end his showdown with Brussels over a loan to Kyiv, according to two EU officials. Two days before EU leaders meet for crunch talks in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa said that “the Ukrainians have welcomed and accepted” an offer of “technical support and funding” to help repair the damaged pipeline, in a bid to restore Russian oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia. Orbán has refused to back a €90 billion loan to fund Ukraine’s war effort unless the oil starts flowing. The agreement gives Orbán a way out of the standoff with the EU as he attempts to overturn a nine-point polling deficit ahead of Hungary’s April 12 election, according to the two officials, who granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive diplomacy, as were others in this article. In a video posted to social media after Tuesday’s pipeline news, Orbán doubled down, saying that “if there is no oil, there is no money” for Ukraine. But a diplomat familiar with Budapest’s thinking hinted there could be room for a breakthrough ahead of Thursday’s summit, given the movement from the EU and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Brussels wants Orbán to lift his veto on the delayed 20th package of sanctions against Russia and on the loan to Ukraine, which EU leaders, including the Hungarian prime minister, agreed to in December. Orbán later changed his mind, taking the unprecedented step backtracking on a decision agreed at a European Council meeting. Two senior EU officials said Brussels believed Orbán was looking for an off-ramp. Orbán has used the spat with Ukraine over the Druzhba pipeline to score political points against his rival, Tisza party leader Péter Magyar. Orbán accused Kyiv of intentionally delaying repairs to the pipeline, which was damaged during a Russian drone attack in late January, to help Magyar in the election — a claim Tisza and Kyiv strongly deny. Zelenskyy has denied he has been slow-walking repairs to the pipeline for political reasons. He said he didn’t want to fix Druzhba both because Russia has repeatedly attacked it, including during repair works, and because doing so would help fill the Kremlin’s coffers and allow Moscow to continue its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He has decried the pressure placed on him by his EU allies, accusing them at the weekend of “blackmail.” But on Tuesday, Zelenskyy finally agreed to the request. In a letter sent to von der Leyen and Costa, Zelenskyy said, “We are undertaking all possible efforts to repair the damage and restore operations” of the pipeline. “Ukraine is a reliable energy partner for the European Union and honours fully its commitments,” he added. In their response to Zelenskyy, von der Leyen and Costa said his acquiescence “would allow [the EU] to move forward in a timely manner with the EU Ukraine Support Loan funding for your own macro-economic stability and for the purchase of defence equipment, as well as the final adoption of the 20th package of sanctions.” The Council and Commission presidents also said their priority “is to ensure energy security for all European citizens,” while working on “alternative routes for the transit of non-Russian crude oil” to Central and Eastern Europe. Speaking to POLITICO on Monday, before the announcement, Hungary’s EU Minister János Bóka said: “I see that the mood has changed after the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East. I think now that most member states do understand that the Ukrainian decision to cut off access to the Druzhba pipeline undermines energy security and security of supply in the Central European region, and this will have implications for the European Union as a whole.” “I think that this understanding is slowly but surely sinking in and my feeling is that the Commission can no longer pretend that it is OK not to do anything in order to help two member states in securing their energy supplies through Ukraine via the Druzhba pipeline,” Bóka added. The episode has been a bruising one for Brussels and for Ukraine, which needs the EU cash to keep afloat through this year and was meant to start receiving the money from April. A previous bid to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine collapsed at the last minute in December amid opposition from Belgium. Any EU country can block the €90 billion loan, because one of the bills that needs approval before the cash can be disbursed requires a unanimous yes from all member countries. Kyiv was expected to run out of money by April, but the urgency eased somewhat after the International Monetary Fund approved an $8.1 billion loan late last month. Ukraine should have enough money to stay solvent until early May, POLITICO reported last week. The EU now appears cautiously optimistic that Orbán may climb down from blocking the loan and sanctions — but potentially not until after the Hungarian election next month. Costa expects Orbán to follow through on the commitment he made at the December EU leaders’ summit “in the very short run,” said one of the EU officials above. But while a German official conceded there is now “some momentum” to resolve the issues over Druzhba, whether a deal on the €90 billion loan will be done at Thursday’s leaders’ summit “remains to be seen.” Nette Nöstlinger, Sebastian Starcevic, Gabriel Gavin and Gerardo Fortuna contributed reporting.

FRANKFURT —  Germany’s government has redirected the bulk of funds originally earmarked for infrastructure into covering budget gaps, according to new reports from two leading research institutes — raising fresh doubts about Berlin’s ability to deliver on its long-promised investment drive. The findings — coming a year after German lawmakers approved historic constitutional reforms to unlock hundreds of billions of euros in borrowing — could expose Chancellor Friedrich Merz to fresh criticism that his government has failed to harness a €500 billion infrastructure and climate fund to revive Germany’s stagnating economy. The scale of the misallocation is striking, according to the reports. The Cologne-based German Economic Institute (IW) calculates that 86 percent of the funds were diverted, while the Ifo Institute puts the figure at an even more damning 95 percent. “We have found that policymakers have used almost all of the debt-financed funds for other purposes, namely, to cover budget shortfalls. This is a major problem,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. After two consecutive years of recession, Germany’s economy barely grew in 2025. It was widely expected to pick up speed in 2026, helped by public investment. But a rebound appears to have failed to materialize thus far.  New headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East will make any recovery even more contingent on effective government spending, analysts warn. The IW report calculated that, last year, the governing coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Berlin tapped just 42 percent of funds originally earmarked. The conservatives and SPD “had the chance to clear the investment backlog. So far, they have not taken it,” said Tobias Hentze of the German Economic Institute. According to Ifo, borrowing from the €500 billion fund increased by €24.3 billion in 2025. Actual federal investments, however, rose by only €1.3 billion overall from 2024. The reason, says Ifo, is that Berlin shifted investment commitments from the current budget into the special fund — known as the Special Fund for Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality, or SVIK — in order to make room for higher day-to-day spending. As such, the net increase in actual overall investment has been minuscule. “There were shifts of individual items from the core budget into the debt-financed [special fund] SVIK, particularly grants in the transport sector, which meant that less was invested in the core budget than in previous years,” said Ifo researcher Emilie Höslinger. “A large part of the special fund’s investments is therefore not truly additional.” Germany’s Bundesbank has previously called on the government to use the SVIK’s borrowing capacity “more purposefully” to ensure that the borrowed money actually creates the potential for faster growth in future, which will in turn make it easier to service the debt that has been taken on. Before the fund was launched, critics including the Federation of German Industries (BDI) warned that the potentially beneficial effects of the SVIK risked being diluted unless the money was put to use properly.

WARSAW — President Karol Nawrocki said Thursday evening he intends to veto government legislation that lays out the how Poland should spend its €43.7 billion allocation under the EU’s loans-for-weapons scheme known as SAFE. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government lacks the necessary votes in the country’s parliament to override the veto. The standoff will inevitably escalate the political feud between Tusk and the president over Poland’s political orientation. Nawrocki, like the nationalist-populist opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party that supports him, views Brussels with skepticism, unlike the pro-EU Tusk administration. Poland is the only country where SAFE has become a political issue. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in December that EU countries had already gobbled up the whole €150 billion from SAFE and were clamoring for more. “The President has lost the chance to act like a patriot. Shame!” Tusk posted on X shortly after Nawrocki announced his decision. The PM said the government will convene for an extraordinary session Friday morning to prepare a response. GOVERNMENT ALLEGES “NATIONAL TREASON” The EU program provides low-interest, long-term loans with a 10-year grace period for principal repayments. The funds are raised by Brussels on capital markets and offer significant savings compared to national borrowing — a crucial issue for Poland, which plans to devote 4.8 percent of its GDP to defense this year. Following Nawrocki’s veto decision, Poland’s SAFE allocation will remain guaranteed, but the rules for spending it will likely be less flexible than they would have been under the legislation Nawrocki blocked. The government had planned to use the money to boost financing for the Border Guard and the police or to upgrade infrastructure. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said before the decision: “If the President vetoes SAFE and we still implement it … I will propose that a plaque with the inscription be placed on every rifle, tank, gun, drone, and anti-drone: ‘Dear soldier of the Polish Army, [President] Nawrocki did not want to give you this.’” Key figures in the Tusk government hammered Nawrocki in the media and online following the decision, calling it “national treason.” The veto also defies the military, whose top brass have spoken out in favor of the SAFE loans. Chief of the General Staff Wiesław Kukuła in February described SAFE as a “game changer” for the military. PRESIDENT RAISES SPECTER OF “MASSIVE FOREIGN LOANS” In his speech, Nawrocki reiterated the arguments he has been rolling out against SAFE for weeks now, claiming the Security Action for Europe loans would saddle Poland with long-term debt and expose the country to exchange-rate risks.  “The SAFE mechanism is a massive foreign loan taken out for 45 years in a foreign currency, with interest costs that could reach as much as PLN180 billion [€42 billion]. Poland would therefore have to repay an amount roughly equal to the value of the loan itself in interest, with Western banks and financial institutions standing to profit from it,” Nawrocki said. The president also argued the scheme could allow Brussels to attach political conditions to Poland’s defense financing and would benefit foreign arms-makers disproportionately.  “SAFE is a mechanism under which Brussels, through the so-called conditionality principle, could arbitrarily suspend financing while Poland would still have to continue repaying the debt. That’s why it must be said clearly: Security subject to conditions is not security. Poland’s security cannot depend on decisions taken elsewhere,” Nawrocki declared. “I have decided that I will not sign the law that would allow Poland to take out a SAFE loan. I will never sign legislation that strikes at our sovereignty, independence, and economic and military security.” Instead, Nawrocki renewed his proposal for a domestic alternative to SAFE that would mobilize money to finance arms purchases without loans or interest payments — by involving the National Bank of Poland’s vast gold reserves. With 550 tons of gold stored in domestic and foreign vaults, the NBP is one of Europe’s top gold hoarders. Central bank chief Adam Glapiński said last week that the NBP holds around 197 billion złoty in “unrealized gains resulting from the increase in the value of the bank’s gold reserves,” and is considering using part of that to support defense spending. The operations would involve transferring the profits generated by the NBP to a dedicated vehicle, the Polish Defense Investment Fund. Glapiński also said the gains would be realized by transactions reducing the share of gold in the bank’s portfolio. 2027 ELECTIONS ON HORIZON Tusk and his ministers have lambasted the gold idea as highly speculative and said it was inconsistent with the central bank’s role as the guardian of Poland’s financial stability. The government has also said that nearly all of Poland’s SAFE money will go to domestic manufacturers, creating jobs and stimulating economic growth. The clash over SAFE comes as Poland prepares for a parliamentary election next year in which PiS hopes to defeat Tusk’s pro-EU coalition. Polls suggest that Tusk’s party, the liberal Civic Coalition, might come first but could lack the votes to form a majority.  The PiS, meanwhile, could secure a majority if it allies with the far-right Confederation party and with the even-more-extreme, antisemitic Confederation of the Polish Crown.

BRUSSELS — The European Commission has proposed sending a fact-finding mission to a contested Soviet-era pipeline in an attempt to resolve a bitter row between Kyiv and Budapest and unlock a major tranche of financial support for Ukraine. “We have proposed a mission to inspect the pipeline to Ukraine,” Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told reporters Thursday, adding that Ukraine had yet to respond to the request. For weeks, Hungary has refused to approve a €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine over the Druzhba pipeline, which transports oil from eastern Russia to Central Europe and has been offline since early January. Kyiv has argued the pipeline was damaged in a Russian strike and is difficult to repair, but Budapest has accused Ukraine of deliberately slow-walking the repairs and engineering an energy crisis in Hungary by refusing to turn on the Russian oil tap. Hungary announced earlier this week that it too had dispatched a fact-finding mission to assess the level of damage to the pipeline. A Kyiv spokesperson dismissed the delegates as “tourists” and said Ukraine would refuse them access. The Commission previously endorsed a proposal by Hungary and Slovakia — which also received Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline — to inspect the site.  Ben Munster contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — The EU’s six largest economies have thrown their weight behind plans to centralize oversight of some of Europe’s biggest financial companies under a single supervisor, according to a document obtained by POLITICO. The finance ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain — the so-called “E6” group — backed the idea in a six-page letter addressed to the European Commission, the Eurogroup and the Council of the European Union. The letter outlined multiple initiatives and deadlines that Brussels should pursue this year. The goal is to create a deeper financial market to “strengthen Europe’s growth potential, enhance its economic sovereignty and provide a stronger foundation for financing common priorities,” the letter said. Among the most contentious initiatives is introducing EU supervision of “the most systemic, relevant, cross-border financial market infrastructures” amid firm resistance from a group of small countries, led by Ireland and Luxembourg, which rely on their outsized finance sectors and are reluctant to cede control to the EU level. EU leaders are set to discuss how best to speed up Brussels’ decade-long plans to create a U.S-style financial market next week after years of lackluster results amid vying national interests. Ireland has already sounded the alarm of the E6 group, as smaller countries fret that their views will be sidelined if countries club together to integrate their financial markets. In the letter, the E6 ministers said creating a “savings and investments union … has become an urgent strategic necessity” and that they commit to “taking action at European as well as at national level.” Other targets in the letter include reviving the bloc’s market for resold debt, or securitization, minting virtual euro banknotes, and introducing an EU-wide one-stop shop for founding companies, dubbed the 28th regime. There are also calls for greater transparency in stock markets and a push for a legislative package this year to streamline the EU’s financial rules. SEEKING A MAJORITY The idea of a single market watchdog, which would play a role similar to the European Central Bank’s supervisory arm for banking, has long been blocked at EU level due to the opposition of small countries and the lack of Germany’s backing. The support of the major economies is a breakthrough in the likelihood of agreeing to the plan, which the European Commission officially proposed in December but has been informally discussed since the financial crisis. The E6 countries wouldn’t be able to do it alone. They would first have to seek a “qualified majority” across the bloc to pass the proposal. That threshold requires the support of 15 countries that represent at least 65 percent of the EU. Should that fail, nine countries can pursue “enhanced cooperation” together to achieve their aims. The supervision plan would centralize oversight of large, cross-border financial plumbing firms, such as stock exchanges and clearinghouses, under the Paris-based European Securities and Markets Authority. The six countries stop short of fully endorsing the Commission’s December proposal, instead saying it “provides a solid basis for further discussion and allows us to work out the best possible solutions in the coming weeks.” The ministers call for EU countries to reach a political deal on the Commission’s plan by this summer.

President Donald Trump said Wednesday the U.S. will release crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, its boldest attempt yet to bring down oil prices that have spiked since the U.S. launched its war against Iran. “We’ll do that, and then we’ll fill it up,” Trump told Cincinnati news station Local 12 in an interview Wednesday afternoon. “I filled it up once, and I’ll fill it up again. But right now, we’ll reduce it a little bit, and that brings the prices down.” Trump did not specify how much oil his administration would release or the timing of the move. It comes after the International Energy Agency announced earlier Wednesday it would coordinate the largest release of reserves in the body’s history, consisting of 400 million barrels of oil, from its 32 members, which include the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K. and France. It was not immediately clear whether Trump’s announcement is a part of the IEA release or in addition to it. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said earlier Wednesday afternoon that Trump had yet to decide whether to join the international effort. The Trump administration has initially ruled out tapping the reserve, a series of underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana. But Iranian attacks against oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have sent crude prices spiraling to four-year highs as vessels stop traversing the key waterway connecting Middle Eastern oil fields to the global market. Still, relief might be limited. The SPR currently holds 415 million barrels, according to the Energy Department, making it less than 59 percent full. The Trump administration only added modest amounts of oil back into the reserve after the Biden administration tapped it to calm markets after Russia invaded Ukraine. A part of the storage caverns also suffered damage as a result of those Biden-era drawdowns, which has challenged the effort to refill it. The reserve is designed to be able to release up to 4.4 million barrels of oil per day within 13 days of a presidential decision, according to the Energy Department. But analysts have said the actual flow rate may be far lower — perhaps 2 million barrels a day — due to physical constraints.