BRUSSELS — Spanish center-right lawmakers have quietly pulled back from their once-robust public support for the EU–Mercosur trade deal, sending jitters through the European People’s Party as backers warn the agreement could now be in serious trouble. The mammoth trade deal, which has been in the making for 25 years, will be formally sealed when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen flies to Paraguay on Saturday to sign it. But the accord still requires a formal green light from the European Parliament before it can enter into force. The shift by the Spanish center right will deliver a first test for the Mercosur accord by as early as next week. MEPs are due to vote on Wednesday on motions calling to refer the text to the Court of Justice of the European Union to review whether it complies with the bloc’s treaties — a process that could take up to two years. Only if the deal receives the necessary backing would it then go forward for a consent vote later this year, where a majority would again be needed for it to go into effect. With support breaking along national, rather than party lines, a defection by the Spanish center right threatens to turn next week into a cliffhanger. Spanish People’s Party (PP) president, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, telegraphed the shift in position at a party rally last weekend, when he declared Spain’s “farmers are right.” His statement reflected broader concerns that farmers could be undercut by an influx of produce from the South American bloc. While stopping short of rejecting the deal outright, Feijóo said Spanish farmers were right to demand “more control over what comes from abroad,” and “fair trade agreements with guarantees — guarantees that will be honored.” “We are the party of the countryside, the party of farmers,” Feijóo added. “The one that defends them, the one that listens to them, and the one that makes real policy for them.” Alberto Nadal, the PP’s vice-secretary for economic affairs, was more explicit in a post on X in which he said the party will “only support the EU-Mercosur agreement if safeguards are guaranteed and border controls are strengthened.” The PP’s press departments in Brussels and Madrid did not respond to repeated requests to clarify what these statements mean for the party’s voting intentions in the European Parliament. Direct requests for comment to the party’s top EU lawmakers went similarly unanswered. SPANISH PIVOT The pivot from the Spanish lawmakers, traditionally the staunchest supporters of deepening ties with Latin America, reflects the sky-high pressure building upon the European Parliament.  In the Parliament’s hallways, EPP lawmakers from other countries have noticed the shift. “We always thought they were rock solid, but then lately there was some nervousness,” said one senior MEP, who was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive situation. They added that the Spaniards had not expressed themselves directly to the group yet but expressed confidence they will ultimately support the deal. “It seems they have a heated internal debate ongoing,” one EPP official said. “Members of the group are feeling the heat of farmers and the Spaniards have three elections upcoming.” French, Polish, and Austrian center-right lawmakers are opposed to the deal over concerns it will hurt farmers.  A second center-right MEP warned that a Spanish rejection of the deal “would be the end” of Mercosur, adding that Madrid’s backing is as instrumental as that of Germany’s, which both countries described as the “motor” of the agreement. Were they to turn against the deal, the Spaniards — who are the second biggest national delegation within the EPP, with 22 seats in the hemicycle — could blow the deal as a whole. The vote is expected to be tight, with four Parliament officials from the EPP, S&D, and Renew groups agreeing the result will be “50-50,” with a margin of just a few votes.  DOMESTIC PRESSURES The PP’s doubts about the Mercosur deal are driven by electoral considerations at home. Regional elections are set to be held in Aragón on Feb. 8, in Castille and León on March 15, and in Andalucía later this spring, and the rural vote is decisive. The Aragonese economy depends on livestock,  Castille and León is Spain’s breadbasket and Andalucía is the country’s largest agricultural producer. Ever since Brussels announced the Mercosur deal, farmers and ranchers in all three regions have taken part in major protests, and even larger mobilizations are planned for the coming weeks. The far-right Vox party — which is already the third-largest group in the Spanish parliament, and which continues to grow in the polls — is actively campaigning against the agreement, which it argues “turns its back on thousands of Spanish producers [by allowing]  the massive influx of foreign products.” It is also using the issue to characterize the PP as a mainstream political force that is virtually identical to the governing Socialist Party, and that does not fight for the interests of average voters. That’s a big problem for the PP, which is desperate to score governing majorities in Aragón, Castille and León, and Andalucía and deal fresh defeats to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s weak minority government. Spain’s left-wing coalition is in dire straits, lacking sufficient support to pass legislation or a fresh budget, and there are doubts that it will remain in power until national elections scheduled to be held in July 2027. Major Socialist losses in Aragón, Castille and León, and Andalucía would increase pressure on Sánchez to call snap elections, but the PP is itself under pressure to score decisive majority wins in both regions. The party is wary of having to form coalition governments with Vox, as it did in the Balearic Islands, Extremadura, Aragon, Valencia and Murcia following nationwide regional elections in 2023. That summer, that partnership became a major liability when Sánchez called snap elections and based his successful campaign on the fear that a vote for the PP amounted to a vote for a far-right national government. Aitor Hernández-Morales reported from Madrid.

OTTAWA — President Donald Trump abruptly halted “all trade negotiations” with Canada late Thursday night over an ad that enlisted the voice of Ronald Reagan to oppose U.S. tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford predicted earlier this week that the president would not be “too happy” with the 60-second spot his province produced to warn Americans that Trump’s tariffs could ultimately kill their jobs. “The Ronald Reagan Foundation has just announced that Canada has fraudulently used an advertisement, which is FAKE, featuring Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about Tariffs,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts. TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A. Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.” Earlier in the evening, The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation hit back at the ad, saying it “misrepresents” Reagan’s presidential radio address on April 25, 1987, which was focused on free and fair trade. The foundation said the Government of Ontario “did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks” and that it is reviewing its legal options. “We encourage you to watch President Reagan’s unedited video on our YouTube channel.” The offices of Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said they would not be commenting on Thursday, but they would likely have more to say on Friday. “The commercial uses an unedited excerpt from one of President Reagan’s public addresses, which is available through public domain,” a spokesperson for Ford said in an email to CBC News. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “The quote of former President Ronald Reagan was recognizing that ultimately somebody pays the tariff — and it’s the consumer,” Carney said when asked about it during an interview last week with Toronto’s RED-FM. “The company passes it on, the price goes up eventually, and you pay the cost of the tariff.” Trump has imposed double-digit tariffs on Canada’s steel, aluminum, auto, lumber and copper sectors. The president has said he is open to renegotiating the United States–Mexico–Canada Free Trade Agreement, but has also left open the possibility of abandoning the framework altogether. Carney, a former central bank governor in Canada and Britain, continued: “As an economist, I say that if somebody is trading fairly, it’s better not to have tariffs between those countries.” The prime minister noted that Trump’s White House is committed to tariffs. “I don’t agree with their policy, but I recognize that is their policy, and I don’t expect it to change.”LeBlanc and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had a meeting scheduled for this week, an official familiar with the trade negotiations told POLITICO. They were granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter. It’s unclear if the two had met, or if the Liberal government received a heads-up. Carney was previously blindsided by the president in June when Trump halted trade negotiations over Canada’s then-Digital Services Tax. Negotiations resumed days later when Carney’s government agreed to rescind the tax, which would have cost U.S. tech companies like Amazon and Google billions of dollars. Carney said earlier in the day Thursday that he speaks “frequently” with Trump, but couldn’t reach him to bet on the World Series, which kicks off Friday with the Toronto Blue Jays up against the Los Angeles Dodgers. “I think he’s afraid to make a bet,” Carney said, smiling while attending a Jays practice in Toronto. “He hasn’t returned my call yet on the bet. I’m ready. We’re ready to make a bet with the U.S.”White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that Trump isn’t a big gambler. The Ontario ad has aired in major markets, including D.C., and during the Toronto Blue Jays’ games. “We’re going to repeat that message to every Republican district there is right across the entire country,” Ford said last week before the ad launched. Reagan’s address warned of the long-term economic perils of tariffs on foreign imports sold to Americans as a protectionist policy and explained they were imposed to sort a particular problem — not to begin a trade war. “But over the long run, such trade barriers hurt every American, worker and consumer,” Reagan narrates in the ad. “High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. Then the worst happens. Markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industries shut down and millions of people lose their jobs.” China’s embassy in Washington notably used the same Reagan clip to troll Trump’s global tariffs when the China-U.S. trade war heated up in the spring. “I do believe that everybody’s too smart for that,” Trump said Tuesday after catching the anti-tariffs spot. Carney and Trump will both be in Malaysia and South Korea to attend ASEAN and APEC, with Carney scheduled to leave for Asia Friday morning.

President Donald Trump released a second wave of letters sent to U.S. trading partners in Asia, Africa and Europe on Wednesday, continuing the administration’s roll-out of new tariff rates on imports from nearly every country in the world that are due to go into force Aug. 1. The Philippines is the largest, economically, of the six countries that received a letter Wednesday, sending $14.1 billion in goods to the U.S. last year. But that still pales in comparison to top U.S. trading partners like the European Union and China. The new tariff rates threatened in the letters Trump shared Wednesday are similar to those he announced on what the White House dubbed “Liberation Day” in early April, with small adjustments. The Philippines’ tariff rate, for instance, increased from 17 percent to 20 percent, while Moldova’s decreased from 31 percent to 25 percent and Iraq’s from 39 percent to 30 percent. The other recipients of the letters Trump shared Wednesday include Brunei, Algeria and Libya. In a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trump told the reporters his tariff-setting letters were in lieu of negotiating deals with many countries. “I just want you to know a letter means a deal. We can’t meet with 200 countries. … You have to do it in a more general way. “ The release of the latest batch of letters came after Trump signed an executive order Monday officially extending the deadline — again — for his “reciprocal” tariffs on nearly 60 trading partners, with rates ranging between 10 and 50 percent. Those duties briefly went into effect April 9 before the president suspended them until July 9. Monday’s order pushed that date to Aug. 1. Trump said Monday that the new deadline is “firm, but not 100 percent firm.” But the following day he vowed in a post on Truth Social that the Aug. 1 deadline is final. “TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change,” Trump wrote. “No extensions will be granted.” The latest update comes after Trump unveiled letters to 14 foreign governments Monday — 10 of them from Asia, triggering frustration and disbelief among recipients in the region. The Philippines, which received a letter on Wednesday, is another Southeast Asian country that is central to U.S. efforts to expand its economic influence and counter China. The 20 percent rate Trump is threatening to impose on exports from the Philippines is the same level Vietnam received as the result of a framework deal it struck with the Trump administration. Hanoi, which exported $136 billion worth of goods to the United States last year, initially faced a potential tariff of 46 percent, per Trump’s April announcement. The United States imported $7.5 billion worth of goods from Iraq last year; $2.4 billion from Algeria; $1.5 billion from Libya; $238 million from Brunei; and $136 million from Moldova.

BRUSSELS — The European Union’s rules on content moderation, digital competition and artificial intelligence are not up for negotiation with the U.S., the European Commission’s tech chief Henna Virkkunen says. Virkkunen drew a line in the sand in an interview with POLITICO just ahead of a new round of talks between EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday. The two sides were reported to be inching closer to a deal that includes how U.S. tech companies are treated under the EU’s Digital Markets Act. “The [Digital Services Act], the [Digital Markets Act] and the AI Act of course, these are very important rules for us to make sure that we have trustworthy technologies,” Virkkunen said. “So, this is not part of trade negotiations from our side.” The rules are not up for negotiation because they are “based on our European values,” Virkkunen underlined. The Trump administration and U.S. tech executives have pushed back strongly against the EU’s tech rules in recent months, arguing that the Digital Services Act would allow Americans to be censored, and that the Digital Markets Act unfairly targets U.S. companies. Washington has also called for the EU’s AI Act to be paused, a demand that is now gaining traction among European government officials and several EU tech executives. Virkkunen also rebuffed the framing of EU tech fines as “tariffs,” saying the Commission is not “looking for fines” and that the penalties are meant to force companies to comply. The EU’s tech chief also indicated that the Commission is proceeding full steam ahead with its ongoing probes under the bloc’s Digital Services Act, and promised that several of them will reach fruition soon. “There are so many investigations in the pipeline that we are also able to come to conclusions with many of them in the coming weeks and months,” she said. The most anticipated probe concerns Elon Musk’s X. The platform was found last summer to be in preliminary breach of the EU’s content moderation rules regarding dark patterns, advertising transparency and data access for researchers. Virkkunen declined to comment on whether it would now be easier for the Commission to wrap up the probe and issue a fine against X and Musk, given that the tech billionaire has fallen out of favor with U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump didn’t rule out deporting Musk on Tuesday. “When we are investigating the platforms, it’s based [on] evidence and based [on] our Digital Services Act, and not [on] who’s the owner,” Virkkunen said.

LONDON — In a world blighted by tariffs and increasing protectionism, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is starting to realize that teamwork really is the only way to make his free trade dream a reality. “I do think that it’s [a] difficult environment, but there are significant opportunities if we’re agile about it, if we understand the world we’re living in, and get ahead of the curve,” Starmer told businesses in Westminster on Thursday as he set out the U.K.’s first Trade Strategy since Brexit. While underscoring the importance of trade deals with the likes of India and the U.S., Starmer hinted at a more multilateral approach to trade policy. “I think we should also talk to like-minded countries, because they recognize that the world is changing,” he said. “I’ve been talking to the leaders in Japan, in Singapore, in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, about how we, the U.K., can trade in an easier and better way with them and whether we as a group of countries can trade with other countries in an easier and better way.” The countries mentioned are all members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), an Asia-Pacific trading bloc which the U.K. joined in December. ASIA-PACIFIC BLOC ‘MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER’ Starmer’s words were borne out in the government’s new trade strategy, where the U.K. committed to working alongside partners and allies to negotiate and agree an “ambitious agenda for future plurilateral agreements.” It describes the role of groupings such as CPTPP as “more important than ever in the current global context.” “We will use CPTPP as a platform to support the wider multilateral and plurilateral system, and to encourage deeper trading relationships between countries and groupings committed to liberal rules-based trade,” the strategy said. At a recent meeting in Korea, CPTPP members committed to work with the EU and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — a regional grouping of 10 states in Southeast Asia — to liberalize global trade in light of “significant challenges” facing the international trading environment.   This could include discussions on areas such as tariffs, digital trade, rules of origin, supply chains, customs administration and innovation, the Trade Strategy said, adding that these dialogues could “create a platform for other trade-focused economies to participate, so broadening our network of collaborative partnerships.” In another sign of the U.K.’s commitment to a multilateral trading system, the U.K. announced it would join the World Trade Organization’s Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), an alternative system for resolving WTO disputes. The U.K. had previously dragged its heels on signing up to the mechanism. “Joining MPIA sends a clear signal that the U.K. is committed to the principles of free and fair trade and that we will champion progress wherever and whenever necessary,” the strategy said.