BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU
envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia,
the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday.
“The new financing will help ensure the country’s fierce resilience in the face
of Russian aggression,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a
statement.
Without the loan Ukraine had risked running out of cash by April, which would
have been catastrophic for its war effort and could have crippled its
negotiating efforts during ongoing American-backed peace talks with Russia.
EU lawmakers still have some hurdles to clear, such as agreeing on the
conditions Ukraine must satisfy to get a payout, before Brussels can raise money
on the global debt market to finance the loan — which is backed by the EU’s
seven-year budget.
A big point of dispute among EU countries was how Ukraine will be able to spend
the money, and who will benefit. One-third of the money will go for normal
budgetary needs and the rest for defense.
France led efforts to get Ukraine to spend as much of that as possible with EU
defense companies, mindful that the bloc’s taxpayers are footing the €3 billion
annual bill to cover interest payments on the loan.
However, Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian nations pushed to give
Ukraine as much flexibility as possible.
The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, will allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from
third countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent
product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need, while also
strengthening the oversight of EU states over such derogations.
The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and
missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike
capabilities.
If the U.K. or other third countries like South Korea, which have signed
security deals with the EU and have helped Ukraine, want to take part in
procurement deals beyond that, they will have to contribute financially to help
cover interest payments on the loan.
The European Parliament must now examine the changes the Council has made to the
legal text. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images
The text also mentions that the contribution of non-EU countries — to be agreed
in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional
to how much their defense firms could gain from taking part in the scheme.
Canada, which already has a deal to take part in the EU’s separate €150 billion
SAFE loans-for-weapons scheme, will not have to pay extra to take part in the
Ukraine program, but would have detail the products that could be procured by
Kyiv.
NEXT STEPS
Now that ambassadors have reached a deal, the European Parliament must examine
the changes the Council has made to the legal text before approving the measure.
If all goes well, Kyiv will get €45 billion from the EU this year in tranches.
The remaining cash will arrive in 2027.
Ukraine will only repay the money if Moscow ends its full-scale invasion and
pays war reparations. If Russia refuses, the EU will consider raiding the
Kremlin’s frozen assets lying in financial institutions across the bloc.
While the loan will keep Ukrainian forces in the fight, the amount won’t cover
Kyiv’s total financing needs — even with another round of loans, worth $8
billion, expected from the International Monetary Fund.
By the IMF’s own estimates, Kyiv will need at least €135 billion to sustain its
military and budgetary needs this year and next.
Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are working on a plan to rebuild Ukraine that
aims to attract $800 billion in public and private funds over 10 years. For that
to happen, the eastern front must first fall silent — a remote likelihood at
this point.
Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.
Tag - Defense budgets
BRUSSELS — EU ambassadors are close to a deal on a €90 billion loan to finance
Ukraine’s defense against Russia thanks to a draft text that spells out the
participation of third countries in arms deals, three diplomats said Wednesday.
The ambassadors are scheduled to meet on Wednesday afternoon to finalize talks
after a week of difficult negotiations.
The final hurdle was deciding how non-EU countries would be able to take part in
defense contracts financed by the loan. The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, would
allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from such countries — including the U.S. and
the U.K. — either when no equivalent product is available in the EU or when
there is an urgent need.
The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and
missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike
capabilities.
If the U.K. wants to take part in procurement deals beyond that, it will have to
contribute financially to help cover interest payments on the loan.
The text also mentions that the British contribution — to be agreed in upcoming
negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional with the
potential gains of its defense firms taking part in the scheme.
France led the effort to ensure that EU countries — which are paying the
interest on the loan — gain the most from defense contracts.
In an effort to get Paris and its allies on board, the draft circulated late
Tuesday includes new language which says that “any agreement with a third
country must be based on a balance of rights and obligations,” and also that “a
third country should not have the same rights nor enjoy the same benefits,”
as participating member states.
The draft also strengthens the control of EU countries over whether the
conditions to buy weapons for Ukraine outside the bloc have been met, saying
Kyiv will have to “provide the information reasonably available to it
demonstrating that the conditions for the application of this derogation are
met.”
That will then be checked “without undue delay” by the European Commission
after consultation with a new Ukraine Defence Industrial Capacities Expert
Group. The new body will include representatives from EU members countries,
according to diplomats.
The European Commission will raise €90 billion in debt to fund Ukraine’s war
effort before Kyiv runs out of cash in April.
After facing intense pressure from national capitals, the Commission agreed to
deploy unused funds in its current seven-year budget to cover the borrowing
costs. If that is not enough, member countries will have to pay the difference.
Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin will meet the European Parliament and the
Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU on Thursday in an attempt to solve
disagreements on the repayment of the borrowing costs, said one official.
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Zum Amtsantritt reist Lars Klingbeil nach Polen und setzt auf den europäischen
Schulterschluss. In Warschau spricht er mit dem polnischen Finanzminister
Andrzej Domański über Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Verteidigungs- und
Wachstumsfinanzierung, den stärkeren Euro und neue Formate jenseits von Brüssel
und Eurogruppe.
Doch auch die Innenpolitik reist mit. Klingbeil positioniert sich deutlich gegen
den Vorstoß des CDU-Wirtschaftsrats, Zahnarztleistungen aus dem Katalog der
gesetzlichen Krankenkassen zu streichen. Die Debatte um GKV-Finanzen,
Gerechtigkeit und Reformtempo spitzt sich zu. Simone Borchardt,
gesundheitspolitische Sprecherin der Unionsfraktion, erklärt im
200-Sekunden-Interview, warum sie Leistungskürzungen ablehnt und stattdessen auf
Effizienz, Steuerung und Digitalisierung setzt.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski
und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international,
hintergründig.
Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis:
Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und
Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.
Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski:
Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.
POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH
Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin
Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0
information@axelspringer.de
Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B
USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390
Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna
The center-right European People’s Party is eyeing “better implementation” of
the Lisbon Treaty to better prepare the EU for what it sees as historic shifts
in the global balance of power involving the U.S., China and Russia, EPP leader
Manfred Weber said on Saturday.
Speaking at a press conference on the second day of an EPP Leaders Retreat in
Zagreb, Weber highlighted the possibility of broadening the use of qualified
majority voting in EU decision-making and developing a practical plan for
military response if a member state is attacked.
Currently EU leaders can use qualified majority voting on most legislative
proposals, from energy and climate issues to research and innovation. But common
foreign and security policy, EU finances and membership issues, among other
areas, need a unified majority.
This means that on issues such as sanctions against Russia, one country can
block agreement, as happened last summer when Slovakian Prime Minister Robert
Fico vetoed a package of EU measures against Moscow — a veto that was eventually
lifted. Such power in one country’s hands is something that the EPP would like
to change.
As for military solidarity, Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty obliges countries
to provide “aid and assistance by all the means in their power” if an EU country
is attacked. For Weber, the formulation under European law is stronger than
NATO’s Article 5 collective defense commitment.
However, he stressed that the EU still lacks a clear operational plan for how
the clause would work in practice. Article 42.7 was previously used when France
requested that other EU countries make additional contributions to the fight
against terrorism, following the Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015.
Such ideas were presented as the party with a biggest grouping in the European
Parliament — and therefore the power to shape EU political priorities —
presented its strategic focus for 2026, with competitiveness as its main
priority.
Keeping the pulse on what matters in 2026
The EPP wants to unleash the bloc’s competitiveness through further cutting red
tape, “completing” the EU single market, diversifying supply chains, protecting
economic independence and security and promoting innovation including in AI,
chips and biotech, among other actions, according to its list 2026 priorities
unveiled on Saturday.
On defense, the EPP is pushing for a “360-degree” security approach to safeguard
Europe against growing geopolitical threats, “addressing state and non-state
threats from all directions,” according to the document.
The EPP is calling for enhanced European defense capabilities, including a
stronger defense market, joint procurement of military equipment, and new
strategic initiatives to boost readiness. The party also stressed the need for
better protection against cyberattacks and hybrid threats, and robust measures
to counter disinformation campaigns targeting EU institutions and societies.
On migration and border security, the EPP backs tougher asylum admissibility
rules, faster returns, and strengthened external borders, including reinforced
Frontex operations and improved digital systems like the Entry/Exit System.
The party also urged a Demographic Strategy for Europe amid the continent’s
shrinking and aging population. The text, initiated by Croatian Democratic Union
(HDZ), member of the EPP, wants to see demographic considerations integrated
into EU economic governance, cohesion funds, and policymaking, while boosting
family support, intergenerational solidarity, labor participation, skills
development, mobility and managed immigration.
Demographic change is “the most important issue, which is not really intensively
discussed in the public discourse,” Weber said. “That’s why we want to highlight
this, we want to underline the importance.”
After months of tight-lipped talks, the Netherlands’ new minority government
unveiled a blueprint for the country’s future on Friday, promising to move
beyond political squabbling and return to the long-standing Dutch tradition of
consensus politics.
The 67-page coalition agreement laid out a series of ambitious goals to be
spearheaded by Rob Jetten and his liberal D66 party alongside his coalition
partners — the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the liberal
People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).
“Today we’re embarking on a new course,” Jetten, told journalists in The Hague
on Friday, promising “real breakthroughs.” Jetten, at age 38, is set to become
the youngest Dutch prime minister.
Those hoping for a dramatic shift after years of right-wing politics, however,
could be disappointed.
“Ultimately, we see relatively little of D66’s progressive agenda reflected in
the agreement,” said Sarah de Lange, a professor of Dutch politics at Leiden
University, pointing to the program’s emphasis on higher defense budgets and
deregulation at the expense of social spending.
Here are five things you need to know about what Jetten’s government has in
store:
1. IT WANTS US TO BELIEVE IN POLITICS AGAIN
The new government is keen to signal it is making a clean break from years of
political paralysis, rolling out its new Cabinet slogan: “Let’s get to work!”
The not-so-subtle message here is that the three coalition members want to show
they are serious about delivering on tackling the country’s main challenges,
ushering in the end of an era of polarization and political clashes and
returning full-force to the Netherlands’ long-standing tradition of compromise
politics.
After the conflict-ridden and gloomy-toned Schoof government, expect a
“yes-we-can” vibe from The Hague.
2. IT’S SPLURGING ON …
— Defense, allocating an extra €19 billion to meet the new NATO spending target
of 5 percent of gross domestic product — 3.5 percent on core military
expenditure and 1.5 percent on defense-related areas — and to facilitate the
country’s transition from being a “peace dividend to combat power.”
“The Netherlands is at the forefront of building a European pillar within NATO,”
the coalition document reads.
— Solving the Netherlands’ housing crisis and phasing out nitrogen emissions
through buyouts will also require large investments. Planned cuts to education
and international aid will be put in the freezer — a win for the D66, for whose
electorate those are core concerns.
… AT THE EXPENSE OF …
— Social spending will take a big hit, with Dutch citizens expected to shoulder
more of the burden for health costs.
“We’re preventing a huge explosion of the health care budget, which creates room
to invest in defense and national security,” Jetten explained on Friday.
— The coalition document also stipulates a “freedom contribution,” a tax of
about €184 per citizen per year which is meant to raise some €3.4 billion toward
defense.
3. IT WILL STAY FIRM ON MIGRATION
The previous government fell over migration, which remained a major campaign
issue in the run-up to the election. Jetten positioned himself as the antithesis
to far-right firebrand Geert Wilders, whose Party for Freedom has long claimed
the topic.
In the coalition text, the new government walks the tightrope of promising a
strict immigration policy while trying not to echo Wilders too closely and
alienate more progressive voters.
The plan singles out the EU’s migration reforms, including its plans to bolster
deportations, as a “first big step toward gaining more control over who comes to
the Netherlands.” The Dutch government will take a leading role in pushing for
changes to international refugee law, including by hosting an asylum summit,
according to the program.
But the text also states that the Netherlands will take a stance in EU talks
about return and transit hubs to make sure that migrants are never sent to
countries where they risk persecution, and put on hold a controversial deal with
Uganda to use the African country as a transit point for rejected asylum
seekers.
4. IT’S RETURNING TO BRUSSELS’ EMBRACE
After a Euroskeptic tilt under the last Dutch government, Jetten is bringing the
Netherlands back on a Brussels course, arguing for closer cooperation.
That applies to defense, with the agreement setting a goal of 40 percent of
procurement to be carried out “jointly with European partners,” as well as to
migration.
Still, the new government remains loyal to the Netherlands’ reputation as one of
the frugals, rejecting eurobonds. “Member states are primarily responsible for
their own budgets,” the document reads.
The country will also continue to support Ukraine militarily and financially and
push to use Russian frozen assets, according to the agreement.
When it comes to the United States, the program struck a stricter tone, pledging
to “speak out when their actions undermine our values and interests, always with
an eye to maintaining the relationship and preserving critical security
interests.”
5. NONE OF THIS IS EVEN REMOTELY A DONE DEAL
Perhaps the most important thing to know is that all of the above should be
taken with a massive grain of salt.
Over the past weeks, the three coalition parties have made a show of presenting
a united front. But internal cohesion is by no means a guarantee of success.
In Dutch parliament, the three parties combined only have 66 out of 150 seats.
In the Netherlands’ upper chamber they hold 22 out of 75 seats.
That means that the coalition will need to seek external support for every
separate issue. Considering that the two largest opposition parties — the
leftist GreenLeft-Labor alliance (GL-PvdA) and far-right Party for Freedom (PVV)
— hold diametrically opposed views, that is a recipe for political acrobatics.
In Jetten’s words: “This will be a cooperation government.”
In practice, Leiden University’s de Lange said, the framework laid out in the
coalition agreement already hints the government will have to swerve even
further to the right.
“When you look at the plans that are on the table right now as a whole, it looks
more likely that the decisive support will come from the far right,” de Lange
said. “GL-PvdA has said from the beginning that they would not agree with
funding defense by cutting social spending.”
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Dutch parliament is expected to discuss the coalition agreement on Tuesday.
That will be a first bellwether of the mood within various opposition parties
and their willingness to help Jetten make good on his promise of getting things
done.
The divvying up of ministries and Cabinet posts is the next big step. If all
goes well, the final team will line up on the steps of the Dutch king’s palace
for the traditional photo by late February.
And then the work can begin.
Czechia will go ahead with the purchase of 24 American F-35 fighter jets but is
seeking to improve the conditions of the deal, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš
said on Thursday.
“We will definitely want to work on this and improve the contract, because the
project is at such a stage that it must continue,” Babiš told journalists
following a visit to Čáslav air base.
“I certainly see a great opportunity to improve the terms of the contract,
especially in terms of financing and, of course, in terms of budgeting regarding
exchange rate differences,” he added.
The deal to purchase the jets was agreed to by Czechia’s previous government,
led by Petr Fiala, in 2023. Babiš and his right-wing populist party ANO
campaigned on criticism of deal, calling the jets “useless and overpriced,” and
vowed to reconsider the agreement. His post-election statements, however,
indicated a more pragmatic approach.
The decision is likely to come as good news to U.S. President Donald Trump, who
pressured Babiš to move ahead with the deal shortly after his inauguration in
December.
“Andrej knows how to get deals done, and I expected incredible things from him,
including on F-35s. Congratulations Andrej!” Trump said in a Dec. 17 post on
social media.
Switzerland will raise its value-added tax rate for a decade to boost defense
spending, its government announced today.
“In view of the deteriorating geopolitical situation, the Federal Council wants
to substantially strengthen Switzerland’s security and defense capabilities,”
the statement reads. “To this end, additional resources in the order of 31
billion Swiss francs [€33 billion] are required.”
The Council plans to temporarily raise VAT by 0.8 percent from the current 8.1
percent for 10 years, as of 2028. The additional revenues will be allocated to
an armament fund that will also have borrowing capacity.
However, raising the VAT requires a change in the constitution and a public
consultation will open in the spring.
Switzerland has been rethinking its defense stance since Russia’s attack on
Ukraine almost four years ago. It is looking for more military cooperation with
European nations and ramping up its rearmament, although it still has no
intention of joining NATO.
Switzerland spends about 0.7 percent of its GDP on defense, one of the lowest
rates in Europe. The current goal of boosting that to 1 percent by 2032 is now
out of date, the Federal Council said.
“Due to the savings made in recent decades, the armed forces are also
insufficiently equipped, particularly to effectively repel the most likely
threats, namely long-range attacks and hybrid conflicts,” the statement added.
Priorities for the country’s armament push include short- and medium-range air
defense systems, cybersecurity and electromagnetic capabilities.
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Die Bundeswehr steht vor einer folgenreichen Beschaffungsentscheidung: Für rund
900 Millionen Euro sollen neue Kampf- und Kamikaze-Drohnen angeschafft werden.
Doch kurz vor der Entscheidung im Haushaltsausschuss wachsen die Zweifel, vor
allem an der Helsing HX-2 Drone. Ein interner Bericht aus der Ukraine stellt die
Trefferquote und Sicherheit eines Systems massiv infrage.
Im Gespräch mit Lars Petersen Leiter der National Investigation Premium-Gruppe
geht es um technische Schwächen, Preisunterschiede von 20.000 bis 60.000 Euro
pro Drohne und das Risiko von Fehlzündungen. Außerdem: Warum die Bundeswehr
diesmal auf mehrere Hersteller setzt, wie die Qualifizierungsphase ablaufen soll
und was passiert, wenn ein System durchfällt.
Zum Artikel von Lars Petersen bei Business Insider hier.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski
und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international,
hintergründig.
Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis:
Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und
Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.
Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski:
Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.
POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH
Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin
Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0
information@axelspringer.de
Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B
USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390
Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna
BRUSSELS — Europe must build its own military power to survive a more dangerous
world and a less reliable U.S., top EU officials warned on Wednesday, sharpening
a public split with NATO chief Mark Rutte over the continent’s security future.
“We live now in a world where might is right,” European Defense Commissioner
Andrius Kubilius said at a conference marking the European Defence Agency’s 21st
anniversary.
“Our answer to deal with this dangerous world … European independence. European
autonomy. More European responsibility for our own defense,” he said, calling
for building a “European pillar in NATO.”
He was echoed by the EU’s top diplomat and EDA boss Kaja Kallas, who warned that
what is happening with the U.S. marks “a structural, not temporary” shift.
“NATO needs to become more European to maintain its strength,” she said.
That’s a direct challenge to Rutte, who on Monday branded a European arm of NATO
an “empty word” given his immediate focus is keeping the U.S. inside the
alliance.
“If anyone thinks here … that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend
itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming,” Rutte told the European Parliament.
But the EU’s top officials are hammering home a very different message: The
United States is no longer the lynchpin of European security and the continent
has to build its own military potential using its own resources. That’s part of
the EDA’s job — to better coordinate the bloc’s military potential.
Neither Kallas nor Kubilius mentioned Donald Trump, but it’s clear that the U.S.
president’s challenge to the status quo by demanding the annexation of Greenland
— a Danish territory — and undercutting NATO’s common defense provisions, are
top-of-mind in Brussels.
“The biggest change in the fundamental reorientation is going on across the
Atlantic: a rethinking that has shaken the transatlantic relationship to its
foundation,” Kallas said, adding: “These developments put a severe strain on the
international norms, rules and institutions enforcing them that we have built
over 80 years. The risk of a full-blown return to coercive power politics,
spheres of influence and a world where might makes right, is very real.”
She did underline that “The U.S. will remain Europe’s partner and ally,” but
added: “Europe needs to adapt to the new realities. Europe is no longer
Washington’s primary center of gravity.”
That’s why the EU has signed defense cooperation deals with nine countries — the
most recent being with India this week. The bloc “must also turbocharge our
collaboration with the selected like-minded partners,” Kallas said.
The EU also has to respond by revamping its structures to make coordinated
action easier; currently a lot of security action needs unanimous consent,
giving pro-Kremlin countries like Hungary a veto. “It cannot be that the one
country’s veto defines the policy for others,” Kallas said.
EU countries will also have to spend more on defense and better coordinate their
procurement to avoid wasting money, Kubilius warned. He called the recently
approved €150 billion loans-for-weapons Security Action for Europe program a
“big bang,” but noted that the bulk of defense spending remains with national
capitals.
“Most new money for defense will be national, so the temptation will be to spend
only national. That would be a big mistake. That would only increase
fragmentation,” Kubilius said, warning that without such an effort, EU countries
would continue to undermine their defense potential by buying arms from outside
the bloc.
The U.S. is Europe’s largest weapons supplier, but there is a concerted push to
keep more defense spending at home, especially for projects financed by EU
money.
André Denk, a German military official who is the EDA’s chief executive, warned
that the EU “cannot forever rely on U.S intelligence, on their logistic support,
on their strategic enablers.”
Kallas and Kubilius also underlined that the bloc’s own defense industries need
to step up and produce more weapons faster.
“Show us your lean and mean side,” said Kallas.
The challenges posed by the U.S., Russia and China mean that Europe has to learn
to stand up for itself, Kubilius said. “In a world of giants, we too must become
giants. A gentle giant that promotes international law and cooperation. But a
strong giant all the same.”
BRUSSELS — Mark Rutte has one overriding mission as NATO secretary-general: Stop
Donald Trump from blowing up the alliance.
That focus is now putting the former Dutch prime minister on a collision course
with the very European capitals he once worked alongside — and has left NATO
bruised even after he successfully talked Trump down from his threats to annex
Greenland.
The strain was on full display Monday in the European Parliament, where Rutte
bluntly defended the superpower’s primacy in the alliance. “If anyone thinks
here … that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without
the U.S., keep on dreaming,” he told lawmakers. “You can’t.”
The reaction was swift — and angry. “No, dear Mark Rutte,” France’s Foreign
Minister Jean-Noël Barrot shot back on X. “Europeans can and must take charge of
their own security. This is the European pillar of NATO.”
“It was a disgraceful moment,” said Nathalie Loiseau, a former French Europe
minister and now an MEP. “We don’t need a Trump zealot. NATO needs to rebalance
between U.S. and European efforts.”
Spain’s Nacho Sánchez Amor was even more direct. “Are you the [U.S.] ambassador
to [NATO],” the Socialist MEP asked Rutte in a heated exchange, “or the
secretary-general representing the alliance and its members?”
The clash is also exposing a growing fault line inside NATO: Rutte’s conviction
that keeping Trump onside is the only way to keep the alliance intact — and
Europe’s rising alarm that this strategy is hollowing it out.
As the secretary-general strains to keep the Americans as close as possible,
those efforts are opening up a rift with his EU counterparts who are
increasingly calling for European security bodies and a continental army beyond
NATO.
POLITICO spoke to more than a dozen NATO insiders, diplomats and current and
former Rutte colleagues, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak candidly.
They described a leader admired as a skilled crisis manager who recently pulled
off a win on Greenland, but at the cost of deepening European unease about
NATO’s long-term future.
But Rutte’s defenders say he has delivered on keeping the alliance together, a
task so difficult he cannot always ensure all 32 members of the alliance are
satisfied. Officials familiar with how he works also insist he talks more
frankly to Trump in private.
Still, the Greenland standoff “did a lot of damage,” said one NATO diplomat.
Rutte’s approach is a “band-aid” that has “alienated allies,” they added. “We’re
an alliance of 32, not a U.S.-plus-31 club.”
MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS
Although Rutte insists that he represents all NATO allies, it’s clear that his
overriding priority is to keep the United States under Trump from walking away
from Europe. That’s opening him to criticism that the focus is now overshadowing
the rest of his job.
Even the secretary-general’s successful effort in helping to get Trump to back
off his Greenland threats at the Jan. 19-23 Davos summit in Switzerland is
raising questions about whether it’s just a temporary reprieve and if the U.S.
will still attempt to take control of parts of the Arctic island.
“What supposed deal have you made with President Trump?” Greens MEP and former
Danish Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal asked on Monday. “Did you have a mandate
as a secretary-general to negotiate on behalf of Greenland and Denmark?”
Rutte denied he went outside his remit. “Of course, I have no mandate to
negotiate on behalf of Denmark, so I didn’t and I will not,” he said in
Parliament.
Lionizing Trump also risks creating a credibility problem for the alliance.
Last year, NATO agreed to dramatically step up military spending to 5 percent of
GDP by 2035 — a result many in the alliance also see as helping Europe stand on
its own two feet. | Pool photo by Nicolas Tucat/EPA
NATO is well known for its collective defense commitment — Article 5 — but the
alliance is also bound by Articles 2 and 3, which ask countries to promote
economic cooperation and mutual rearmament. With his threats to impose tariffs
on Europe and seize Greenland, Trump has violated both, the same NATO diplomat
said.
Adding to that unease, Trump has previously cast doubt on his support for
Article 5, and belittled the military commitments of other allies, falsely
claiming last week that Europeans had stayed “a little off the front lines” in
the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.
Responding to the criticism, a NATO official said: “As secretaries-general
before him, NATO Secretary-General Rutte is convinced that our collective
security is best served by Europe and North America working together through
NATO.”
TRUMP CARD AT THE READY
Despite that, Rutte has been sticking firmly to his strategy of buttering up
Trump in public, insisting he is a positive for the alliance.
Last year, NATO agreed to dramatically step up military spending to 5 percent of
GDP by 2035 — a result many in the alliance also see as helping Europe stand on
its own two feet. The secretary-general on Monday said there was “no way” that
would have happened without pressure from the U.S. president.
The White House is in full agreement with that characterization.
“President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone,” White House Deputy Press
Secretary Anna Kelly told POLITICO. “America’s contributions to NATO dwarf that
of other countries, and his success in delivering a five percent spending pledge
from NATO allies is helping Europe take greater responsibility for its own
defense.”
Kelly said that Trump has “a great relationship” with Rutte, and then added:
“The United States is the only NATO partner who can protect Greenland, and the
President is advancing NATO interests in doing so.”
His hard-nosed approach is honed by 14 years of managing often fractious
coalitions as the Netherlands’ longest-serving prime minister. “He’s anything
but an idealist,” said a former colleague. “He’s pragmatic.”
Immediately striking up a good rapport with Trump during his first term in the
White House, Rutte realized that public flattery was the key to keeping the U.S.
president onside.
“He can make himself very small and humble to reach his goal,” said Petra de
Koning, who wrote a 2020 biography on Rutte. That’s often taken to extremes: The
Dutchman described Trump as “daddy” during last year’s NATO summit in The Hague,
and lavished praise on him in messages leaked by the U.S. president.
But in private, he is more forthright with Trump, according to a person familiar
with Rutte’s thinking. “The relationship is trustful,” they said, but “if
pushed, he will be direct.” Meanwhile, keeping all 32 NATO members aligned with
every decision is “nearly impossible,” the person insisted.
Although the deal to get Trump to back off his Greenland threats may have left a
bad taste in Europe, NATO wasn’t destroyed.
“The reality is, Rutte is delivering,” said a senior NATO diplomat. “Unlike some
other leaders, he never doubted the alliance — I chalk it up to experience,”
added a second senior alliance diplomat.
But keeping Trump sweet risks emboldening the U.S. president to be still bolder
in future. “Politicians around the world and in this country ignore Trump’s ego
at their peril,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at Virginia’s
University of Mary Washington.
That could also create issues for the alliance down the line. “For the benefit
of the alliance, [he’s] sucking up” to Trump, the first NATO diplomat said. “But
the question is, where does it end?”
Esther Webber and Laura Kayali contributed to this report.