Tag - Defense budgets

EU agrees €90B lifeline for cash-strapped Ukraine
BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia, the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday. “The new financing will help ensure the country’s fierce resilience in the face of Russian aggression,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a statement. Without the loan Ukraine had risked running out of cash by April, which would have been catastrophic for its war effort and could have crippled its negotiating efforts during ongoing American-backed peace talks with Russia. EU lawmakers still have some hurdles to clear, such as agreeing on the conditions Ukraine must satisfy to get a payout, before Brussels can raise money on the global debt market to finance the loan — which is backed by the EU’s seven-year budget. A big point of dispute among EU countries was how Ukraine will be able to spend the money, and who will benefit. One-third of the money will go for normal budgetary needs and the rest for defense. France led efforts to get Ukraine to spend as much of that as possible with EU defense companies, mindful that the bloc’s taxpayers are footing the €3 billion annual bill to cover interest payments on the loan. However, Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian nations pushed to give Ukraine as much flexibility as possible. The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, will allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from third countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need, while also strengthening the oversight of EU states over such derogations. The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike capabilities. If the U.K. or other third countries like South Korea, which have signed security deals with the EU and have helped Ukraine, want to take part in procurement deals beyond that, they will have to contribute financially to help cover interest payments on the loan. The European Parliament must now examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images The text also mentions that the contribution of non-EU countries — to be agreed in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional to how much their defense firms could gain from taking part in the scheme. Canada, which already has a deal to take part in the EU’s separate €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons scheme, will not have to pay extra to take part in the Ukraine program, but would have detail the products that could be procured by Kyiv. NEXT STEPS Now that ambassadors have reached a deal, the European Parliament must examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text before approving the measure. If all goes well, Kyiv will get €45 billion from the EU this year in tranches. The remaining cash will arrive in 2027. Ukraine will only repay the money if Moscow ends its full-scale invasion and pays war reparations. If Russia refuses, the EU will consider raiding the Kremlin’s frozen assets lying in financial institutions across the bloc. While the loan will keep Ukrainian forces in the fight, the amount won’t cover Kyiv’s total financing needs — even with another round of loans, worth $8 billion, expected from the International Monetary Fund. By the IMF’s own estimates, Kyiv will need at least €135 billion to sustain its military and budgetary needs this year and next. Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are working on a plan to rebuild Ukraine that aims to attract $800 billion in public and private funds over 10 years. For that to happen, the eastern front must first fall silent — a remote likelihood at this point. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.
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EU ambassadors near deal on Ukraine loan
BRUSSELS — EU ambassadors are close to a deal on a €90 billion loan to finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia thanks to a draft text that spells out the participation of third countries in arms deals, three diplomats said Wednesday. The ambassadors are scheduled to meet on Wednesday afternoon to finalize talks after a week of difficult negotiations. The final hurdle was deciding how non-EU countries would be able to take part in defense contracts financed by the loan. The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, would allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from such countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need. The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike capabilities. If the U.K. wants to take part in procurement deals beyond that, it will have to contribute financially to help cover interest payments on the loan. The text also mentions that the British contribution — to be agreed in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional with the potential gains of its defense firms taking part in the scheme.  France led the effort to ensure that EU countries — which are paying the interest on the loan — gain the most from defense contracts. In an effort to get Paris and its allies on board, the draft circulated late Tuesday includes new language which says that “any agreement with a third country must be based on a balance of rights and obligations,” and also that “a third country should not have the same rights nor enjoy the same benefits,” as participating member states. The draft also strengthens the control of EU countries over whether the conditions to buy weapons for Ukraine outside the bloc have been met, saying Kyiv will have to “provide the information reasonably available to it demonstrating that the conditions for the application of this derogation are met.” That will then be checked  “without undue delay” by the European Commission after consultation with a new Ukraine Defence Industrial Capacities Expert Group. The new body will include representatives from EU members countries, according to diplomats. The European Commission will raise €90 billion in debt to fund Ukraine’s war effort before Kyiv runs out of cash in April. After facing intense pressure from national capitals, the Commission agreed to deploy unused funds in its current seven-year budget to cover the borrowing costs. If that is not enough, member countries will have to pay the difference. Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin will meet the European Parliament and the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU on Thursday in an attempt to solve disagreements on the repayment of the borrowing costs, said one official.
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Update: Streit um Zahnarztkosten — Klingbeil in Polen
Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Zum Amtsantritt reist Lars Klingbeil nach Polen und setzt auf den europäischen Schulterschluss. In Warschau spricht er mit dem polnischen Finanzminister Andrzej Domański über Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Verteidigungs- und Wachstumsfinanzierung, den stärkeren Euro und neue Formate jenseits von Brüssel und Eurogruppe. Doch auch die Innenpolitik reist mit. Klingbeil positioniert sich deutlich gegen den Vorstoß des CDU-Wirtschaftsrats, Zahnarztleistungen aus dem Katalog der gesetzlichen Krankenkassen zu streichen. Die Debatte um GKV-Finanzen, Gerechtigkeit und Reformtempo spitzt sich zu. Simone Borchardt, gesundheitspolitische Sprecherin der Unionsfraktion, erklärt im 200-Sekunden-Interview, warum sie Leistungskürzungen ablehnt und stattdessen auf Effizienz, Steuerung und Digitalisierung setzt. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna
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EPP urges EU to gear up for shifts in global balance of power
The center-right European People’s Party is eyeing “better implementation” of the Lisbon Treaty to better prepare the EU for what it sees as historic shifts in the global balance of power involving the U.S., China and Russia, EPP leader Manfred Weber said on Saturday. Speaking at a press conference on the second day of an EPP Leaders Retreat in Zagreb, Weber highlighted the possibility of broadening the use of qualified majority voting in EU decision-making and developing a practical plan for military response if a member state is attacked. Currently EU leaders can use qualified majority voting on most legislative proposals, from energy and climate issues to research and innovation. But common foreign and security policy, EU finances and membership issues, among other areas, need a unified majority. This means that on issues such as sanctions against Russia, one country can block agreement, as happened last summer when Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico vetoed a package of EU measures against Moscow — a veto that was eventually lifted. Such power in one country’s hands is something that the EPP would like to change.  As for military solidarity, Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty obliges countries to provide “aid and assistance by all the means in their power” if an EU country is attacked. For Weber, the formulation under European law is stronger than NATO’s Article 5 collective defense commitment. However, he stressed that the EU still lacks a clear operational plan for how the clause would work in practice. Article 42.7 was previously used when France requested that other EU countries make additional contributions to the fight against terrorism, following the Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015.  Such ideas were presented as the party with a biggest grouping in the European Parliament — and therefore the power to shape EU political priorities — presented its strategic focus for 2026, with competitiveness as its main priority.  Keeping the pulse on what matters in 2026  The EPP wants to unleash the bloc’s competitiveness through further cutting red tape, “completing” the EU single market, diversifying supply chains, protecting economic independence and security and promoting innovation including in AI, chips and biotech, among other actions, according to its list 2026 priorities unveiled on Saturday. On defense, the EPP is pushing for a “360-degree” security approach to safeguard Europe against growing geopolitical threats, “addressing state and non-state threats from all directions,” according to the document. The EPP is calling for enhanced European defense capabilities, including a stronger defense market, joint procurement of military equipment, and new strategic initiatives to boost readiness. The party also stressed the need for better protection against cyberattacks and hybrid threats, and robust measures to counter disinformation campaigns targeting EU institutions and societies. On migration and border security, the EPP backs tougher asylum admissibility rules, faster returns, and strengthened external borders, including reinforced Frontex operations and improved digital systems like the Entry/Exit System.  The party also urged a Demographic Strategy for Europe amid the continent’s shrinking and aging population. The text, initiated by Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), member of the EPP, wants to see demographic considerations integrated into EU economic governance, cohesion funds, and policymaking, while boosting family support, intergenerational solidarity, labor participation, skills development, mobility and managed immigration.  Demographic change is “the most important issue, which is not really intensively discussed in the public discourse,” Weber said. “That’s why we want to highlight this, we want to underline the importance.” 
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5 things to know about the new Dutch government’s plans
After months of tight-lipped talks, the Netherlands’ new minority government unveiled a blueprint for the country’s future on Friday, promising to move beyond political squabbling and return to the long-standing Dutch tradition of consensus politics. The 67-page coalition agreement laid out a series of ambitious goals to be spearheaded by Rob Jetten and his liberal D66 party alongside his coalition partners — the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). “Today we’re embarking on a new course,” Jetten, told journalists in The Hague on Friday, promising “real breakthroughs.” Jetten, at age 38, is set to become the youngest Dutch prime minister. Those hoping for a dramatic shift after years of right-wing politics, however, could be disappointed. “Ultimately, we see relatively little of D66’s progressive agenda reflected in the agreement,” said Sarah de Lange, a professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, pointing to the program’s emphasis on higher defense budgets and deregulation at the expense of social spending.  Here are five things you need to know about what Jetten’s government has in store: 1. IT WANTS US TO BELIEVE IN POLITICS AGAIN The new government is keen to signal it is making a clean break from years of political paralysis, rolling out its new Cabinet slogan: “Let’s get to work!” The not-so-subtle message here is that the three coalition members want to show they are serious about delivering on tackling the country’s main challenges, ushering in the end of an era of polarization and political clashes and returning full-force to the Netherlands’ long-standing tradition of compromise politics. After the conflict-ridden and gloomy-toned Schoof government, expect a “yes-we-can” vibe from The Hague.  2. IT’S SPLURGING ON … — Defense, allocating an extra €19 billion to meet the new NATO spending target of 5 percent of gross domestic product — 3.5 percent on core military expenditure and 1.5 percent on defense-related areas — and to facilitate the country’s transition from being a “peace dividend to combat power.” “The Netherlands is at the forefront of building a European pillar within NATO,” the coalition document reads.  — Solving the Netherlands’ housing crisis and phasing out nitrogen emissions through buyouts will also require large investments. Planned cuts to education and international aid will be put in the freezer — a win for the D66, for whose electorate those are core concerns. … AT THE EXPENSE OF …  — Social spending will take a big hit, with Dutch citizens expected to shoulder more of the burden for health costs.  “We’re preventing a huge explosion of the health care budget, which creates room to invest in defense and national security,” Jetten explained on Friday.   — The coalition document also stipulates a “freedom contribution,” a tax of about €184 per citizen per year which is meant to raise some €3.4 billion toward defense.  3. IT WILL STAY FIRM ON MIGRATION The previous government fell over migration, which remained a major campaign issue in the run-up to the election. Jetten positioned himself as the antithesis to far-right firebrand Geert Wilders, whose Party for Freedom has long claimed the topic. In the coalition text, the new government walks the tightrope of promising a strict immigration policy while trying not to echo Wilders too closely and alienate more progressive voters. The plan singles out the EU’s migration reforms, including its plans to bolster deportations, as a “first big step toward gaining more control over who comes to the Netherlands.” The Dutch government will take a leading role in pushing for changes to international refugee law, including by hosting an asylum summit, according to the program.  But the text also states that the Netherlands will take a stance in EU talks about return and transit hubs to make sure that migrants are never sent to countries where they risk persecution, and put on hold a controversial deal with Uganda to use the African country as a transit point for rejected asylum seekers. 4. IT’S RETURNING TO BRUSSELS’ EMBRACE  After a Euroskeptic tilt under the last Dutch government, Jetten is bringing the Netherlands back on a Brussels course, arguing for closer cooperation. That applies to defense, with the agreement setting a goal of 40 percent of procurement to be carried out “jointly with European partners,” as well as to migration.  Still, the new government remains loyal to the Netherlands’ reputation as one of the frugals, rejecting eurobonds. “Member states are primarily responsible for their own budgets,” the document reads.  The country will also continue to support Ukraine militarily and financially and push to use Russian frozen assets, according to the agreement.  When it comes to the United States, the program struck a stricter tone, pledging to “speak out when their actions undermine our values and interests, always with an eye to maintaining the relationship and preserving critical security interests.”  5. NONE OF THIS IS EVEN REMOTELY A DONE DEAL Perhaps the most important thing to know is that all of the above should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Over the past weeks, the three coalition parties have made a show of presenting a united front. But internal cohesion is by no means a guarantee of success.  In Dutch parliament, the three parties combined only have 66 out of 150 seats. In the Netherlands’ upper chamber they hold 22 out of 75 seats.  That means that the coalition will need to seek external support for every separate issue. Considering that the two largest opposition parties — the leftist GreenLeft-Labor alliance (GL-PvdA) and far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) — hold diametrically opposed views, that is a recipe for political acrobatics. In Jetten’s words: “This will be a cooperation government.”  In practice, Leiden University’s de Lange said, the framework laid out in the coalition agreement already hints the government will have to swerve even further to the right. “When you look at the plans that are on the table right now as a whole, it looks more likely that the decisive support will come from the far right,” de Lange said. “GL-PvdA has said from the beginning that they would not agree with funding defense by cutting social spending.” WHAT’S NEXT?  The Dutch parliament is expected to discuss the coalition agreement on Tuesday. That will be a first bellwether of the mood within various opposition parties and their willingness to help Jetten make good on his promise of getting things done. The divvying up of ministries and Cabinet posts is the next big step. If all goes well, the final team will line up on the steps of the Dutch king’s palace for the traditional photo by late February.  And then the work can begin.
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Czechia must proceed with American F-35 purchase at this stage, PM says
Czechia will go ahead with the purchase of 24 American F-35 fighter jets but is seeking to improve the conditions of the deal, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said on Thursday. “We will definitely want to work on this and improve the contract, because the project is at such a stage that it must continue,” Babiš told journalists following a visit to Čáslav air base. “I certainly see a great opportunity to improve the terms of the contract, especially in terms of financing and, of course, in terms of budgeting regarding exchange rate differences,” he added. The deal to purchase the jets was agreed to by Czechia’s previous government, led by Petr Fiala, in 2023. Babiš and his right-wing populist party ANO campaigned on criticism of deal, calling the jets “useless and overpriced,” and vowed to reconsider the agreement. His post-election statements, however, indicated a more pragmatic approach. The decision is likely to come as good news to U.S. President Donald Trump, who pressured Babiš to move ahead with the deal shortly after his inauguration in December. “Andrej knows how to get deals done, and I expected incredible things from him, including on F-35s. Congratulations Andrej!” Trump said in a Dec. 17 post on social media.
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Switzerland will raise VAT to boost defense spending
Switzerland will raise its value-added tax rate for a decade to boost defense spending, its government announced today. “In view of the deteriorating geopolitical situation, the Federal Council wants to substantially strengthen Switzerland’s security and defense capabilities,” the statement reads. “To this end, additional resources in the order of 31 billion Swiss francs [€33 billion] are required.” The Council plans to temporarily raise VAT by 0.8 percent from the current 8.1 percent for 10 years, as of 2028. The additional revenues will be allocated to an armament fund that will also have borrowing capacity. However, raising the VAT requires a change in the constitution and a public consultation will open in the spring. Switzerland has been rethinking its defense stance since Russia’s attack on Ukraine almost four years ago. It is looking for more military cooperation with European nations and ramping up its rearmament, although it still has no intention of joining NATO. Switzerland spends about 0.7 percent of its GDP on defense, one of the lowest rates in Europe. The current goal of boosting that to 1 percent by 2032 is now out of date, the Federal Council said. “Due to the savings made in recent decades, the armed forces are also insufficiently equipped, particularly to effectively repel the most likely threats, namely long-range attacks and hybrid conflicts,” the statement added. Priorities for the country’s armament push include short- and medium-range air defense systems, cybersecurity and electromagnetic capabilities.
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Update: Helsing-Drohnen für die Bundeswehr? Fragen zum Milliarden-Deal
Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Die Bundeswehr steht vor einer folgenreichen Beschaffungsentscheidung: Für rund 900 Millionen Euro sollen neue Kampf- und Kamikaze-Drohnen angeschafft werden. Doch kurz vor der Entscheidung im Haushaltsausschuss wachsen die Zweifel, vor allem an der Helsing HX-2 Drone. Ein interner Bericht aus der Ukraine stellt die Trefferquote und Sicherheit eines Systems massiv infrage. Im Gespräch mit Lars Petersen Leiter der National Investigation Premium-Gruppe geht es um technische Schwächen, Preisunterschiede von 20.000 bis 60.000 Euro pro Drohne und das Risiko von Fehlzündungen. Außerdem: Warum die Bundeswehr diesmal auf mehrere Hersteller setzt, wie die Qualifizierungsphase ablaufen soll und was passiert, wenn ein System durchfällt. Zum Artikel von Lars Petersen bei Business Insider hier. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna
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EU leaders warn Europe must become a defense ‘giant’ as US role wanes
BRUSSELS — Europe must build its own military power to survive a more dangerous world and a less reliable U.S., top EU officials warned on Wednesday, sharpening a public split with NATO chief Mark Rutte over the continent’s security future. “We live now in a world where might is right,” European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said at a conference marking the European Defence Agency’s 21st anniversary. “Our answer to deal with this dangerous world … European independence. European autonomy. More European responsibility for our own defense,” he said, calling for building a “European pillar in NATO.” He was echoed by the EU’s top diplomat and EDA boss Kaja Kallas, who warned that what is happening with the U.S. marks “a structural, not temporary” shift. “NATO needs to become more European to maintain its strength,” she said. That’s a direct challenge to Rutte, who on Monday branded a European arm of NATO an “empty word” given his immediate focus is keeping the U.S. inside the alliance. “If anyone thinks here … that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming,” Rutte told the European Parliament. But the EU’s top officials are hammering home a very different message: The United States is no longer the lynchpin of European security and the continent has to build its own military potential using its own resources. That’s part of the EDA’s job — to better coordinate the bloc’s military potential. Neither Kallas nor Kubilius mentioned Donald Trump, but it’s clear that the U.S. president’s challenge to the status quo by demanding the annexation of Greenland — a Danish territory — and undercutting NATO’s common defense provisions, are top-of-mind in Brussels. “The biggest change in the fundamental reorientation is going on across the Atlantic: a rethinking that has shaken the transatlantic relationship to its foundation,” Kallas said, adding: “These developments put a severe strain on the international norms, rules and institutions enforcing them that we have built over 80 years. The risk of a full-blown return to coercive power politics, spheres of influence and a world where might makes right, is very real.” She did underline that “The U.S. will remain Europe’s partner and ally,” but added: “Europe needs to adapt to the new realities. Europe is no longer Washington’s primary center of gravity.” That’s why the EU has signed defense cooperation deals with nine countries — the most recent being with India this week. The bloc “must also turbocharge our collaboration with the selected like-minded partners,” Kallas said. The EU also has to respond by revamping its structures to make coordinated action easier; currently a lot of security action needs unanimous consent, giving pro-Kremlin countries like Hungary a veto. “It cannot be that the one country’s veto defines the policy for others,” Kallas said. EU countries will also have to spend more on defense and better coordinate their procurement to avoid wasting money, Kubilius warned. He called the recently approved €150 billion loans-for-weapons Security Action for Europe program a “big bang,” but noted that the bulk of defense spending remains with national capitals. “Most new money for defense will be national, so the temptation will be to spend only national. That would be a big mistake. That would only increase fragmentation,” Kubilius said, warning that without such an effort, EU countries would continue to undermine their defense potential by buying arms from outside the bloc. The U.S. is Europe’s largest weapons supplier, but there is a concerted push to keep more defense spending at home, especially for projects financed by EU money. André Denk, a German military official who is the EDA’s chief executive, warned that the EU “cannot forever rely on U.S intelligence, on their logistic support, on their strategic enablers.” Kallas and Kubilius also underlined that the bloc’s own defense industries need to step up and produce more weapons faster. “Show us your lean and mean side,” said Kallas. The challenges posed by the U.S., Russia and China mean that Europe has to learn to stand up for itself, Kubilius said. “In a world of giants, we too must become giants. A gentle giant that promotes international law and cooperation. But a strong giant all the same.”
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Mark Rutte’s Trump flattery strains NATO
BRUSSELS — Mark Rutte has one overriding mission as NATO secretary-general: Stop Donald Trump from blowing up the alliance. That focus is now putting the former Dutch prime minister on a collision course with the very European capitals he once worked alongside — and has left NATO bruised even after he successfully talked Trump down from his threats to annex Greenland. The strain was on full display Monday in the European Parliament, where Rutte bluntly defended the superpower’s primacy in the alliance. “If anyone thinks here … that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming,” he told lawmakers. “You can’t.” The reaction was swift — and angry. “No, dear Mark Rutte,” France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot shot back on X. “Europeans can and must take charge of their own security. This is the European pillar of NATO.” “It was a disgraceful moment,” said Nathalie Loiseau, a former French Europe minister and now an MEP. “We don’t need a Trump zealot. NATO needs to rebalance between U.S. and European efforts.” Spain’s Nacho Sánchez Amor was even more direct. “Are you the [U.S.] ambassador to [NATO],” the Socialist MEP asked Rutte in a heated exchange, “or the secretary-general representing the alliance and its members?” The clash is also exposing a growing fault line inside NATO: Rutte’s conviction that keeping Trump onside is the only way to keep the alliance intact — and Europe’s rising alarm that this strategy is hollowing it out. As the secretary-general strains to keep the Americans as close as possible, those efforts are opening up a rift with his EU counterparts who are increasingly calling for European security bodies and a continental army beyond NATO.  POLITICO spoke to more than a dozen NATO insiders, diplomats and current and former Rutte colleagues, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak candidly. They described a leader admired as a skilled crisis manager who recently pulled off a win on Greenland, but at the cost of deepening European unease about NATO’s long-term future. But Rutte’s defenders say he has delivered on keeping the alliance together, a task so difficult he cannot always ensure all 32 members of the alliance are satisfied. Officials familiar with how he works also insist he talks more frankly to Trump in private. Still, the Greenland standoff “did a lot of damage,” said one NATO diplomat. Rutte’s approach is a “band-aid” that has “alienated allies,” they added. “We’re an alliance of 32, not a U.S.-plus-31 club.” MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS Although Rutte insists that he represents all NATO allies, it’s clear that his overriding priority is to keep the United States under Trump from walking away from Europe. That’s opening him to criticism that the focus is now overshadowing the rest of his job. Even the secretary-general’s successful effort in helping to get Trump to back off his Greenland threats at the Jan. 19-23 Davos summit in Switzerland is raising questions about whether it’s just a temporary reprieve and if the U.S. will still attempt to take control of parts of the Arctic island. “What supposed deal have you made with President Trump?” Greens MEP and former Danish Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal asked on Monday. “Did you have a mandate as a secretary-general to negotiate on behalf of Greenland and Denmark?” Rutte denied he went outside his remit. “Of course, I have no mandate to negotiate on behalf of Denmark, so I didn’t and I will not,” he said in Parliament. Lionizing Trump also risks creating a credibility problem for the alliance. Last year, NATO agreed to dramatically step up military spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035 — a result many in the alliance also see as helping Europe stand on its own two feet. | Pool photo by Nicolas Tucat/EPA NATO is well known for its collective defense commitment — Article 5 — but the alliance is also bound by Articles 2 and 3, which ask countries to promote economic cooperation and mutual rearmament. With his threats to impose tariffs on Europe and seize Greenland, Trump has violated both, the same NATO diplomat said. Adding to that unease, Trump has previously cast doubt on his support for Article 5, and belittled the military commitments of other allies, falsely claiming last week that Europeans had stayed “a little off the front lines” in the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. Responding to the criticism, a NATO official said: “As secretaries-general before him, NATO Secretary-General Rutte is convinced that our collective security is best served by Europe and North America working together through NATO.” TRUMP CARD AT THE READY Despite that, Rutte has been sticking firmly to his strategy of buttering up Trump in public, insisting he is a positive for the alliance. Last year, NATO agreed to dramatically step up military spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035 — a result many in the alliance also see as helping Europe stand on its own two feet. The secretary-general on Monday said there was “no way” that would have happened without pressure from the U.S. president. The White House is in full agreement with that characterization. “President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told POLITICO. “America’s contributions to NATO dwarf that of other countries, and his success in delivering a five percent spending pledge from NATO allies is helping Europe take greater responsibility for its own defense.” Kelly said that Trump has “a great relationship” with Rutte, and then added: “The United States is the only NATO partner who can protect Greenland, and the President is advancing NATO interests in doing so.” His hard-nosed approach is honed by 14 years of managing often fractious coalitions as the Netherlands’ longest-serving prime minister. “He’s anything but an idealist,” said a former colleague. “He’s pragmatic.” Immediately striking up a good rapport with Trump during his first term in the White House, Rutte realized that public flattery was the key to keeping the U.S. president onside. “He can make himself very small and humble to reach his goal,” said Petra de Koning, who wrote a 2020 biography on Rutte. That’s often taken to extremes: The Dutchman described Trump as “daddy” during last year’s NATO summit in The Hague, and lavished praise on him in messages leaked by the U.S. president. But in private, he is more forthright with Trump, according to a person familiar with Rutte’s thinking. “The relationship is trustful,” they said, but “if pushed, he will be direct.” Meanwhile, keeping all 32 NATO members aligned with every decision is “nearly impossible,” the person insisted. Although the deal to get Trump to back off his Greenland threats may have left a bad taste in Europe, NATO wasn’t destroyed. “The reality is, Rutte is delivering,” said a senior NATO diplomat. “Unlike some other leaders, he never doubted the alliance — I chalk it up to experience,” added a second senior alliance diplomat. But keeping Trump sweet risks emboldening the U.S. president to be still bolder in future. “Politicians around the world and in this country ignore Trump’s ego at their peril,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at Virginia’s University of Mary Washington. That could also create issues for the alliance down the line. “For the benefit of the alliance, [he’s] sucking up” to Trump, the first NATO diplomat said. “But the question is, where does it end?” Esther Webber and Laura Kayali contributed to this report.
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