Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating as ships come under attack and the U.S. moves to counter suspected Iranian mine-laying operations, raising fears of further disruption to global shipping and energy flows. The narrow channel between Iran and Oman carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints in global trade. Europe relies on shipments passing through the strait for fuel imports and refining — including diesel and jet fuel — and disruptions have already pushed energy prices higher since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began. The escalation comes amid U.S. media reports that Iran may be preparing to deploy naval mines in the area, prompting Washington to target suspected mine-laying vessels. The warning has also reached European shipowners. Greece’s shipping ministry circulated an internal advisory to shipping companies warning that Iran may already have mined the Strait of Hormuz or could do so imminently. “According to information from U.S. intelligence agencies reported by international and domestic media, there are reports that Iran has either already mined or may mine the Strait of Hormuz,” the advisory said. “Given that the possible mining of the area poses a very serious threat to the safety of navigation, shipping companies and captains of Greek ships … should incorporate the above into their risk assessment and monitor developments.” U.S. Central Command said in a social media post late Tuesday that it had struck 16 Iranian vessels believed to be involved in laying mines near the strait. It remains unclear whether any mines were successfully deployed. U.S. President Donald Trump also warned Tehran of severe consequences if mining operations continue. “If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait … we want them removed immediately,” Trump said Tuesday in a post on Truth Social, adding that U.S. forces would “permanently eliminate” any boat attempting to lay mines. But even if mines are never deployed, the threat alone is enough to keep vessels away from the waterway. “It almost doesn’t matter [whether the strait is mined or not],” said Matthew Wright, principal freight analyst at Kpler. From a shipowner’s perspective, the risk is enough. “Iran does not need to attack a ship every day to stop shipping,” he added. “All they have to do is show they can — and they have.” On Wednesday, at least three new incidents involving commercial vessels were also reported, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Donald Trump warned Tehran of severe consequences if mining operations continue. | Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images A cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a fire on board and forcing the crew to evacuate, UKMTO said in an incident warning issued early Wednesday. Another container vessel earlier reported sustaining damage from a suspected projectile. The escalating confrontation is deepening the crisis already affecting shipping in the area. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed since the war began. Normally 15 million to 18 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait each day, roughly a fifth of global oil consumption. But tanker traffic has fallen sharply as shipping companies suspend voyages and insurers raise war-risk premiums. “For Europe, diesel and jet fuel are likely to become major issues in the next couple of months,” Wright said. “There is simply no alternative route for much of that supply.” Major container carriers including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have already halted transits through the strait, rerouting vessels or sending them to safe anchorages. Insurance has also become another major constraint. War-risk coverage was briefly withdrawn and is now returning only at sharply higher costs, with some hull and cargo premiums rising 200 to 300 percent. “In the 15 years I’ve covered oil and shipping markets, this is probably the biggest event,” he said in an interview earlier this month, comparing the shock to the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic and the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Even an immediate ceasefire would not quickly restore shipping through the strait, Wright said. “If the U.S. announced today that the war was over, that could almost make things worse,” he noted. “How do you define the end of the war? If the U.S. simply pulls out or says military action is complete, that wouldn’t solve anything. Iran would still be capable of firing into the Strait of Hormuz, and that uncertainty would add even more risk to the market.” Nektaria Stamouli contributed to this report.

Scattered among the candy shelves and freezer cabinets in Russian supermarkets across Germany are advertisements promoting a business with a service the government has tried to outlaw: a logistics company specialized in moving packages from the heart of Germany to Russia, in defiance of European Union sanctions. Trade restrictions have been in place since 2014 and were tightened just after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Western nations began to impose far-reaching financial and trade sanctions on Russia. But an investigation by the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, which includes POLITICO, has identified a clandestine Berlin-based postal system that exploits the special status of postal parcels to transport all kinds of European goods — including banned electronics components — into President Vladimir Putin’s empire. We know every stop and turn in the route because we sent five packages and used digital tracking devices to follow them — through an illicit 1,100-mile journey that undermines the sanctions regime European policymakers consider their strongest tool to generate political pressure on Russian leaders by weakening their country’s economy. LS Logistics said its internal controls make violations of EU sanctions “virtually impossible” but that it was not immune from customers making fraudulent declarations about the goods they ship. “Sanctions enforcement is whack-a-mole,” said David Goldwyn, who worked on sanctions policy as U.S. State Department coordinator for international energy affairs and now chairs the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center’s energy advisory group. “It’s a hard process, and you have to constantly be adapting to how the evaders are adapting.” THE UZBEK LABEL In late December, we packed five square brown parcels with electronic components specifically banned under EU sanctions and addressed the parcels to locations in Moscow and St. Petersburg. When we brought our parcels to the counters of Russian supermarkets in Berlin, we told salespeople the packages included books, scarves and hats. But they never checked inside the packages, which in fact held banned electronic components we rendered unusable before packing. Salespeople charged us 13 euros per kilogram, about $7 per pound, refusing to provide receipts. What makes these cardboard packages even more special is their disguise: The employee does not affix Russian postal stickers to the boxes, but rather those of UzPost, the national postal service of Uzbekistan. The former Soviet republic is not subject to EU sanctions. UzPost maintains close ties to the Russian postal service, according to a person familiar with the entities’ history of cooperation granted anonymity to discuss confidential business practices. Tatyana Kim, the CEO of Russian ecommerce marketplace Wildberries and reputedly her country’s richest woman, recently acquired a large stake in UzPost, according to media reports. “We work with partners, including private postal service providers,” the Uzbek postal service stated in response to our inquiry. “They can use our solutions for deliveries.” In Germany, registered logistics companies are permitted to provide postal services — including pick-up, sorting and delivery — for international postal operators. However, the Federal Network Agency, which is responsible for postal oversight, says the Uzbek postal service is not authorized to perform any of these functions in Germany. (The Federal Network Agency said in a response to our inquiry that it is “currently reviewing” the case and that it would pursue penalties for LS if it is found to be using Uzbek documents without authorization.) After our packages spent one to two days at the supermarkets, we saw them begin to move. Inside each package we had placed a small black GPS device, naming them “Alpha,” “Beta,” “Gamma,” “Delta” and “Epsi.” We could track their movements in real time in an app, watching them closely as they wound through Berlin’s roads to Schönefeld, site of the capital’s international airport. There they stopped, unloaded into a modern warehouse that has been repurposed into a Russian shadow postal service. COLOGNE, TECHNICALLY In 2014, a retired professional gymnast was tasked with launching a subsidiary of Russia’s national postal service, the RusPost GmbH, which would operate with official authorization to collect, process and deliver postal items in Germany, according to a former employee granted anonymity to speak openly about the business. For 18 years, the St. Petersburg-raised Alexey Grigoryev had competed and coached at Germany’s highest levels, winning three national championship titles with the KTV Straubenhardt team and working with an Olympic gold medalist on the high bar. But he had no evident experience in the postal business. RusPost’s German business model collapsed upon the imposition of an expanded sanctions package in the weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Much like American sanctions on Russia, the European Union blocks sensitive technical materials that could boost the Russian defense sector, while allowing the export of personal effects and quotidian consumer items. “The sanctions are accompanied by far-reaching export bans, particularly on goods relevant to the war, in order to put pressure on the Russian war economy,” according to a statement the Federal Ministry of Economics provided us. In March 2022, while conducting random checks of postal traffic to Moscow, customs officials discovered sanctioned goods (including cash, jewelry and electrical appliances) in numerous RusPost packages. The Berlin public prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of the company, concluding that a former RusPost managing director had deliberately failed to set up effective control mechanisms, in breach of his duties. He was charged with 62 counts of attempting to violate the Foreign Trade and Payments Act over an eight-month period; criminal proceedings are ongoing. The Russian postal network did not quite disappear, however. A new company called LS Logistics Solution GmbH was formed in December 2022, according to corporate filings. LS filled its top jobs, including customs manager and head of customer service, with former RusPost employees, according to their LinkedIn profiles. The new company listed as its business address an inconspicuous semi-detached house in a residential area of Cologne, across from a church. When we visited, we found an old white mailbox whose plated sign lists LS Logistics alongside dozens of other companies supposed to be housed there. But none of them seemed to be active. The building was empty during business hours, its mailbox overflowing with discolored brochures and old newspapers. The operational heart of LS is the warehouse complex in Berlin-Schönefeld, just a few minutes from the capital’s airport. The building itself is functional and anonymous: a long, gray industrial structure with several metal rolling doors, some fitted with narrow window slits. Through them, towering stacks of parcels are visible, packed tightly, sorted roughly, stretching deep into the hall. Trucks arrive and depart regularly, from loading bays lit by harsh white floodlights that cut through the otherwise quiet industrial area. Behind the warehouse lies a wide concrete parking lot where a black BMW SUV with a license plate bearing the initials AG is often parked. We saw a man resembling Grigoryev enter the car. The former head of RusPost officially withdrew from the postal business after authorities froze the company’s operations. Unofficially, however, the 50-year-old’s continued presence in Schönefeld suggests otherwise. According to one former RusPost employee, the warehouse near the airport serves as a collection point for parcels from all over Europe. Other logistics companies with Russian management have listed the warehouse as their business address, some of their logos decorating the façade. LS Logistics Solution GmbH has the largest sign of them all. THE A2 GETAWAY According to tracking devices, our packages spent several days in the warehouse before being loaded onto 40-ton trucks covered with grey tarps, among several that leave every day loaded with mail. They were then driven toward the Polish border, through the German city of Frankfurt (Oder). Without any long stops, the 40-ton trucks traversed Poland on the A2 motorway, past Warsaw. Two days after leaving Berlin, they were approaching the eastern edge of the European Union. They arrived at a border checkpoint in Brest, the Belarusian city where more than a hundred years ago Russia signed a peace pact with Germany to withdraw from World War I. Now it marked the last place for European officials to identify contraband leaving for countries they consider adversaries. In 2022, the European Union applied a separate set of sanctions on Belarus because its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Putin, has supported Russia’s presence in Ukraine. Yet despite provisions that should have stopped our packages from leaving Poland, they moved onward into Belarus, their tracking devices apparently undetected. What makes this possible is the special legal status that accompanies international mail. While a formal export declaration is required for the export of regular goods, such as those moving via container ship or rail freight, simplified paperwork helps speed up the departure process for postal items. At Europe’s borders, this distinction becomes crucial, as postal packages are examined largely on risk-based checks rather than comprehensive inspections. “International postal items are subject to the regular provisions of customs supervision both on import and on export and transit and are checked on a risk-oriented basis in accordance with applicable EU and national legislation, including with regard to compliance with sanctions regulations,” the German General Customs Directorate stated in response to our inquiry. Two of our tracking devices briefly lost their signal in Belarus — likely part of a widespread pattern of satellite navigation systems being disrupted across Eastern Europe — but after a journey of around 1,100 miles, they all showed the same destination. Our packages had reached Russia’s largest cities. Ukrainian authorities told us they were not surprised by our investigation. The country’s presidential envoy for sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, said at the Ukrainian embassy in Berlin that his government regularly collects intelligence on such schemes and shares it with international partners. “Nobody is doing enough, if you look at the number of cases,” Vlasiuk said. ONE STEP BEHIND After the arrival of the packages, we confronted all parties involved, including LS Logistics Solution GmbH, the mysterious shipper that helped transport the goods from Europe to Russia. We called Grigoryev several times, but he never answered; efforts to reach him through the company failed as well. An LS executive would not answer our questions about his role. “Our internal control mechanisms are designed in such a way that violations of EU sanctions are virtually impossible,” LS managing director Anjelika Crone wrote to us. “Shipments that do not meet the legal requirements are not processed further. We are not immune to fraudulent misdeclarations, such as those that obviously underlie the ‘test shipments’ you refer to.” Crone said she could not answer further questions due to data protection and contractual confidentiality concerns. This month, Germany took steps to strengthen enforcement of its sanctions regime, expanding the range of violations subject to criminal penalties. The law, passed by the Bundestag in January, amends the country’s Foreign Trade and Payments Act to integrate a European Union directive harmonizing criminal sanctions law across its 27 member states and ensure efficient, uniform enforcement. Germany was one of the 18 countries put on notice by EU officials last May for having failed to follow the 2024 directive. The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, which is responsible for implementing the new policy, argued in a statement to the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network that the very ingenuity of the logistics network we unmasked operating within Germany was a testament to the strength of the country’s sanctions regime. “The state-organized Russian procurement systems operate at enormous financial expense to create ever new and more complex diversion routes,” said ministry spokesperson Tim-Niklas Wentzel. “This confirms that the considerable compliance efforts of many companies and the work of the sanctions enforcement authorities in combating circumvention are also having a practical effect. Procurement is becoming increasingly difficult, time-consuming, and expensive for Russia.” According to those who have tried to administer sanctions laws, that argument rings true — but only partly. “It’s probably more fair to say that sanctions had a material impact and increased the cost of bad actors to achieve their goals. But to say that they’re working well is probably overstating the truth of the matter,” said Max Meizlish, formerly an official with the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and now a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “When there’s evasion, it requires enforcement,” Meizlish went on. “And when you need more enforcement I think it’s hard to make a compelling case that the tool is working as intended.” The Axel Springer Global Reporters Network is a multi-publication initiative publishing scoops, investigations, interviews, op-eds and analysis that reverberate across the world. It connects journalists from Axel Springer brands—including POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, and Onet— on major stories for an international audience. Their ambitious reporting stretches across Axel Springer platforms: online, print, TV, and audio. Together, these outlets reach hundreds of millions of people worldwide.

BRUSSELS — If you ordered Christmas presents from a Chinese web shop, they are likely to be toxic, unsafe or undervalued. Or all of the above. The EU is trying to do something about the flood but is tripping over itself 27 times to get there. “It’s absolutely crazy…” sighs one EU official. The official, granted anonymity to discuss preparations to tackle the problem, said that at some airport freight hubs, an estimated 80 percent of such inbound packages don’t comply with EU safety rules. The numbers are dizzying. In 2024, 4.6 billion small packages with contents worth less than €150 entered the EU. That all-time record was broken in September of this year. Because these individual air-mail packages replace whole containers shipping the same product, the workload for customs officials has increased exponentially over recent years. Non-compliant, cheaply-made products — such as dangerous toys or kitchen items — bring health risks. And a growing pile of garbage. It’s a problem for everyone along the chain. Customs officers can’t keep up; buyers end up with useless products; children are put at risk; and EU makers of similar items are undercut by unfair and untaxed competition. With the situation on the ground becoming unmanageable, the EU agreed this month to charge a €3 fixed fee on all such packages. This will effectively remove a tax-free exemption on packages worth €150 — but only from July of next year. It’s a crude, and temporary, fix because existing customs IT systems can’t yet tax items according to their actual value. ALL I WANT … Which is why all European lawmaker Anna Cavazzini wants for next year’s holiday season is “better rules.” Cavazzini is a key player in a push to harmonize the EU’s 27 national customs regimes. A proposed reform, now being discussed by the EU institutions, would create a central data hub and an EU Customs Agency, or EUCA, with oversight powers. As is so often the case in the EU, though, the customs reform is only progressing slowly. The EUCA will be operational only from late 2026. And the data hub probably won’t be up and running until the next decade. “We need a fundamental discussion on the Europeanization of customs,” Cavazzini told POLITICO. As chair of the European Parliament’s Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee (IMCO), the lawmaker from the German Greens has been pushing the Council, the EU’s intergovernmental branch, to allow the customs reform to make the bloc’s single market more of a unified reality. European lawmaker Anna Cavazzini. | Martin Bertrand and Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images EU capitals worry — as always — about handing over too much power to the eurocrats in Brussels. But the main outstanding issue where negotiators disagree is more prosaic: it’s about whether the law should include an explicit list of offences, such making false declarations to customs officers. While the last round of negotiations in early December brought some progress on other areas, the unsolved penalties question has kicked the reform into 2026. With the millions of boxes, packages and parcels inbound, regardless, individual countries are also considering handling fees, beside the €3 tax that all have agreed on. France has already proposed a solo fee with revenues flowing into its national budget, and Belgium and the Netherlands will probably follow suit. RACE TO THE BOTTOM Customs reform is what’s needed, not another round of fragmented fees and a race to the bottom, said Dirk Gotink, the European Parliament’s lead negotiator on the customs reform. “Right now, the ideas launched by France and others are not meant to stem the flow of packages. They are just meant to earn money,” the Dutch center-right lawmaker told a recent briefing. To inspect the myriad ways in which they are a risk, Gotink’s team bought a few items from dubious-looking web shops. “With this one, the eyes are coming off right away,” he warned before handing a plush toy to a reporter. The reporter almost succeeded in separating the head from the creature’s body without too much effort. And thin, plastic eyes trailed the toy as it was passed around the room. “On the box it says it’s meant for people over 15 years old…” one reporter commented. But the cute creature is clearly targeted at far younger audiences. Adding to the craze, K-pop stars excitedly unbox new characters in online promotional videos. The troubles aren’t limited to toys. A jar of cosmetics showed by Gotink had inscriptions on its label that didn’t resemble any known alphabet. Individual products aside, the deluge of cheap merchandise also creates unfair competition, said Cavazzini: “A lot of European companies of course also fulfill the environmental obligations and the imports don’t,” she said. “This is also creating a huge unlevel playing field.” After the holidays, Gotink and Cavazzini will pick up negotiations on the customs reform with Cyprus, which from Jan. 1 takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU from Denmark. “This file will be a priority during our presidency,” a Cypriot official told POLITICO, adding that Denmark had completed most of the technical work. “We aim to conclude this important file, hoping to reach a deal with the Parliament during the first months of the Cyprus Presidency.” Despite the delays, an EU diplomat working on customs policy told POLITICO that the current speed of the policy process is unprecedented: “This huge ecommerce pressure has really made all the difference. A year ago, this would have been unimaginable.”

LONDON — Eurostar passengers travelling between London and the continent could face higher fares thanks to a U.K. government tax raid on the Channel Tunnel. Eurotunnel, the company which owns the under-sea link, says a business rates revaluation on its infrastructure will effectively treble its payments and see it paying 75 percent tax on new investments. The infrastructure firm says costs will be passed onto operators through higher access charges for trains using the tunnel — raising overheads that are likely to be passed onto passengers. Rail operator Eurostar said the plans “would be at odds with the Government’s ambition” to promote rail travel. Rail freight will also be hit as Eurotunnel warned plans to bring an east London goods yard back into operation would have to be cancelled. It comes as the U.K. braces for a budget of tax rises, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to focus on smaller, specific revenue raising measures after cancelling a planned general hike in income tax. ‘NOTHING LEFT TO INVEST’ Eurotunnel says the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), which sets business rates for the government, hasn’t been transparent about the rise in its payments, which from April are set to go from £22 million to £65 million. The company says access charges are decided by a set formula taking business rates into account, and that they would inevitably rise as a result. “All of the users of the tunnel pay for access. When business rates go up, that’s split amongst the different users,” John Keefe, director of public and corporate affairs at Eurotunnel, told POLITICO. “At this stage, the numbers aren’t one hundred percent known, because we’re hoping we can talk a bit more with the government about this and about bringing a bit more pragmatism into it. But there is a mechanism whereby everybody contributes.” Higher charges for tunnel users would also hit Virgin Trains, the new challenger operator hoping to start running competing services to Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam through the tunnel by 2030. The second operator got the green light just last month with the aim of reducing fares and increasing competition on the key international rail route. “Since 2017 we’ve had, over three valuations, a nine-times increase in the valuation. This time it’s gone up, multiplied by three, from £22 million that we pay at the moment to £65 million, which is the ask,” Keefe said. “It needs to be based on what business can actually pay, generate and pay and still invest. Because if you take all the money in business rates, there’s nothing left for investment. So there’s nothing left for growth. “While we’re hearing leading up to the budget, ‘growth, growth, growth, growth, growth’, nobody can invest at that level.” Eurotunnel also complains that the VOA’s calculations are “opaque beyond belief.” “They say, ‘here’s the number.’ And you go, ‘why did you get the number? How did you get to that number? What numbers are you using?’ And they go, ‘there’s the number’,” Keefe said. POLITICO has contacted the VOA for comment. FREIGHT INVESTMENT PAUSED Eurotunnel was planning to reopen Barking rail freight yard in east London to make running freight on trains through the tunnel a more attractive proposition — in line with the government’s own target for a 75 percent increase in rail freight. But Keefe said: “The sums just don’t add up when you’re paying a 75 percent marginal tax rate. So it’s unfortunately going to be frozen.” A spokesperson for Eurostar, the high-speed rail operator, said: “Our priority is enabling more people to travel sustainably, which includes offering affordable lead-in fares and products, and we remain fully committed to our growth plans regardless of the VOA review. “Eurostar continues to engage with the Government and the Valuation Office Agency and is determined to find a positive way forward. However, a three-fold increase in business rates for Channel Tunnel users for the second time would be at odds with the Government’s ambition of economic growth, pioneering European rail connectivity, and encouraging low-carbon rail travel. “Throughout our conversations, we have urged fairness by treating international rail in the same way as domestic rail in business rates terms. Nevertheless, Eurostar continues to commit to its own ambitious growth plans and investments including €2bn in new fleet and new destinations of Frankfurt and Geneva direct from London.”

The Louvre Museum in Paris has been temporarily closed following a robbery, France’s culture minister said Sunday morning. Rachida Dati wrote on X that the robbery happened Sunday morning and that there were no reports of injuries. An investigation has been launched, she said. The museum said that it will remain closed Sunday “for exceptional reasons.” According to the French daily Le Parisien, the thieves accessed the building on the Seine docks, where work is taking place. They used a freight elevator to access directly the targeted room, in the Apollo gallery, according to the report. After breaking windows, two hooded men entered, while a third remained stationed outside, according to the Parisien report. The thieves took nine pieces from the Napoleon and the Empress jewellery collection. The damage is still being assessed, it said. The Regent, the largest diamond in the collection weighing more than 140 carats, was not stolen, according to the report. The criminals fled on a scooter toward the A6 motorway, the newspaper said. The Louvre is the world’s most visited museum and houses many famous artworks and other valuable items.

WARSAW — Poland will reopen border crossings with Belarus at midnight from Wednesday to Thursday, ending a nearly two-week shutdown that’s wreaked havoc on rail shipments between China and Europe, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Tuesday. Warsaw closed all its border crossings with Belarus on Sept. 12, citing security concerns over the Zapad 25 Russia-Belarus war games. That coincided with 21 Russian drones flying into Polish airspace on Sept. 10; at least three were shot down. Tusk said the interior minister would follow up by issuing a regulation to reopen road and rail crossings.  “Taking into account the economic interests of Polish carriers, including PKP Cargo, we concluded that this preventive step has fulfilled its role,” the PM said.  The blockade disrupted a route that carries around €25 billion worth of EU-China trade. Poland’s state-controlled rail freight giant PKP Cargo warned that prolonged closure would divert freight south through Central Asia and the Black Sea, at a loss to the Polish economy. While Beijing pressed Warsaw to restore traffic, Polish officials said the “logic of security” outweighed economic considerations at the time.  Tusk also hinted that Poland could shut the crossings again if threats reemerge. While the situation “is not joyful,” he said, the conclusion of the Zapad drills reduced — though did not eliminate — risks linked to Moscow’s “aggressive posture.” “This tool remains at our disposal, and if tensions rise, we will not hesitate to use it again,” Tusk said.

A Chinese company is preparing to sail a cargo ship along Russia’s northern coast to Europe— a test run made possible by melting ice and accelerating climate change, and one that has implications for both international trade and the environment. China is sending the Istanbul Bridge container ship on an 18-day trip from Ningbo-Zhoushan port — the world’s largest — to Felixstowe in the U.K. on Sept. 20, accompanied by ice breakers. The goal is not a one-off voyage — that’s been done before — but to establish a regular service via Russia’s Northern Sea Route linking multiple ports in Asia and Europe. “The larger picture is that the Arctic is opening up,” said Malte Humpert, senior fellow and founder of the Arctic Institute, a Washington-based think tank that studies Arctic security. “Twenty years ago it was frozen. But now that it’s melting and something is opening up, there’s interest.” For Humpert, the impact may be bigger than shipping schedules. “The Arctic is the first region where climate change is changing the geopolitical map. If we didn’t have climate change, we wouldn’t be talking. Russia would not be producing oil and gas in the Arctic. China would not be sending container ships through the Arctic.” “It’s the first large region on the globe where climate change is rapidly and actively changing the geopolitical dynamics — because of resources, access to shipping routes, and because a new region is suddenly accessible.” PLAYING THE LONG GAME For now, global trade flows through the usual chokepoints. “The majority of global trade goes through the Suez Canal, Mediterranean, Singapore,” Humpert said. “But the Arctic is 40 percent shorter and it has a lot less geopolitical uncertainty … so it could potentially become an alternative trade route. The question is, is it really happening? And how quick?” Peter Sand, chief analyst at shipping consultancy Xeneta, noted the idea is hardly new. “It has been debated, talked about, tried out a number of times over the past decades,” he said. China is just the latest to push it forward: “They announced a similar thing two years ago. They did it then, and now they’re trying again.” Earlier Chinese voyages, however, were simpler. “They did point-to-point trips, like from one Chinese port to Hamburg or to St. Petersburg,” Humpert said. “This voyage is different. They’re trying four ports in China, then through the Arctic, then the U.K., Rotterdam, Hamburg and Gdańsk. That actually resembles a normal shipping route.” Unlike tramp shipping — where cargo is taken where it’s needed usually with no fixed schedule — liner-type container routes run on set timetables between specific ports whether the ships are full or not. The Chinese experiment in the Arctic is closer to the latter: less a one-off and more a rehearsal for a conventional Asia–Europe loop. But the scale remains minuscule. “What they’re deploying is equal to maybe 1 percent of the Far East–North Europe trade,” Sand noted. The Arctic only makes sense when demand is high and shaving off days matters. “Nobody lives in the Polar region. The only way it competes is when extra capacity and shorter transit times outweigh higher freight rates.” China is sending the Istanbul Bridge container ship on an 18-day trip from Ningbo-Zhoushan port — the world’s largest — to Felixstowe in the U.K. on Sept. 20, accompanied by ice breakers. | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images So for now, the route looks like a seasonal side-project. “It’s not here to shake trade lanes as they’re set up today,” Sand said. “But it could be one of those niche services that appear during peak season over the next decade.” Humpert sees the experiment as planting a flag for the future. “The Suez Canal has like 10,000 ships every year, so this is very, very little,” he said. “But if you play this 30 or 40 years into the future, and the ice melts another 30, 40, 50 percent, suddenly you have six months of no ice, and the Arctic becomes a very interesting equation. “The Arctic is not going to replace the Suez Canal tomorrow. That’s not what’s happening. The Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, they will remain there. But the Arctic will become supplemental.” That this experiment is even possible is thanks to climate change. “These changes are happening quicker than anyone expected, even five or 10 years ago,” Humpert said. “Ten years ago, everyone thought that before 2040 or 2050, we would not see container shipping in the Arctic. And here we are in 2025, and the Chinese are doing it,” he added. “Do they make money? It doesn’t really matter … it’s about gaining the knowledge, understanding how to do it. That’s what the Chinese are doing — they’re gaining the experience and training the shipping crews.” But there might also be a more immediate prize for the voyage — getting to Europe ahead of the rush of other Chinese shippers. “All the Chinese Christmas stuff that we buy in Europe gets shipped from China at the end of September,” Humpert said. “Normally it takes 40 to 50 days, so it arrives in Rotterdam in early to mid-November. But everything arrives at once, creating traffic jams. Big ships can wait one or two weeks before they get into Rotterdam or Hamburg. By going through the Arctic, this ship will arrive three to four weeks earlier, when the ports are empty.” If the trip works, it could also have implications for Europe’s car sector. “For containers, you need a string of stops — one port after another. Maybe that works for 10 percent of container shipping, maybe only 1 percent. No one really knows,” Humpert said. “But cars are different. You load 10,000 electric vehicles in China, and you offload 10,000 in Rotterdam or Hamburg. No in-between stops. That’s an area we may be seeing in 10 or 15 years.” RISKY ROUTE But the opportunity comes with heavy risk. The Arctic is warming three to four times faster than the rest of the planet. Less ice may make passage easier, but it also magnifies the damage when things go wrong. Black carbon from bunker fuels is especially destructive when released near snow and ice. “It does five times the damage there than if it’s emitted farther away,” said Andrew Dumbrille, adviser to the Clean Arctic Alliance. Add the reality that spill response in the Arctic is slow and limited, and the stakes rise sharply. “Once oil is in the water, every hour without response means huge damage,” he said. And the vessel making this pioneering run hardly inspires confidence. The Istanbul Bridge — a 25-year-old, Liberian-flagged container ship — is not ice-strengthened, Dumbrille noted. “There will be an escort around it, but still, it’s not strengthened. It also will likely use heavy fuel oil on its journey, or bunker fuels.” Even though heavy fuel oil was technically banned by the International Maritime Organization in July 2024, loopholes remain. Spills of the sludge-like fuel are nearly impossible to clean up, lingering in ecosystems for years. Then there’s noise pollution, invasive species and disruption to marine life. Dumbrille said the next chance for tougher global rules will come in February 2026, when the IMO’s pollution prevention and response subcommittee meets — with experts and green groups already pushing for stricter fuel regulations in an increasingly busy Arctic.

Russia’s military drills may be over, but Poland isn’t relaxing — and has decided to keep its border with Belarus closed indefinitely, severing a €25-billion-a-year trade artery between China and the EU. Warsaw closed its border with Belarus on Friday to better monitor the large-scale Russian-Belarusian “Zapad” exercise. But what was billed as a temporary precaution now looks open-ended, with the government citing “concern for the safety of Polish citizens” and adding that “traffic will be restored once the border is fully safe.” The move comes at a moment of high diplomatic tension, after Russia last week tested Poland’s defenses by sending a drone swarm into its air space and amid increasing diplomatic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to punish China for helping the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine. Poland’s government said the “logic of trade” was being replaced by the “logic of security.” Crucially, the shutdown hits a trade route that moves 90 percent of rail freight between China and the EU. On that route, cargo volumes between China and the EU grew 10.6 percent in 2024, while the value of goods jumped nearly 85 percent to €25.07 billion. The corridor now accounts for 3.7 percent of all EU-China trade, up from 2.1 percent a year earlier — a lifeline for e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein. Polish firms might also take a hit. State-controlled PKP Cargo said short delays could be managed but warned that a prolonged closure would divert trade south, through Kazakhstan, the Caspian and Black Sea and on to Southern Europe or Turkey. The closure comes just a week after the company launched its first Warsaw–China freight train, carrying goods from several European countries — a symbolic run meant to cement Poland’s role as a hub and raise PKP Cargo’s international profile. “The complete border closure is a crucial problem — not only for transport and logistics but for the whole economy,” said Artur Kalisiak, strategic projects director at the Transport & Logistics Poland industry association. Some 10,000 Belarusian drivers employed by Polish transport firms are also stuck, he added — unable to return to work in Poland, or even get back home. All cargo is currently blocked, including time-sensitive shipments like medicine and food. As for alternatives, “you can try via Lithuania or Latvia, but that of course takes more time and more money. And even then, there’s no guarantee those borders will stay open,” he said. Belarusian opposition outlet Belsat reported on attempts to improvise new supply chains, saying a workaround had been created whereby a loaded truck heads to a terminal in Lithuania’s Kaunas, Poland’s Łódź or Germany’s Duisburg — from where cargo is shifted and then enters Belarus through Lithuanian rail crossings. “It’s a very difficult situation,” Kalisiak concluded. “The government says it is monitoring the situation and that the border will be reopened when it is safe. This is what we know … so, from a business perspective, we know nothing.” | Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images “The decision to close the border with Belarus will remain in force until further notice. Further steps on the matter are yet to be decided,” Polish government spokesman Adam Szłapka confirmed to reporters on Wednesday. With no reopening date in sight, businesses have no clear word on whether they will be compensated. “Losses will be assessed once we know how long the border will have been closed. At that point, the ministries will be able to prepare an assessment, which will serve as the basis for the government’s decisions on possible state support for individual industrial sectors,” the interior ministry said. POLITICAL CHESS Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi flew into Warsaw on Monday to talk with his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski. “It was made very clear during the talks that in this situation, the logic of trade, which is also beneficial for us, is being replaced by the logic of security. And that was expressed very clearly by Minister Sikorski,” Polish foreign ministry spokesperson Paweł Wroński said. He added that the Chinese side had made no direct demands to reopen the border. Beijing had already said before the ministers met that it hoped Poland would “take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of the [rail link on the Belarus border] and the stability of international industrial and supply chains,” stressing that the China-Europe Railway Express was a “flagship project” in China’s cooperation with both Poland and the EU. But China isn’t the only player in the game. “There is also the United States, and we have a very close relationship with them. I’m quite sure Washington is more than happy to see the routes closed — at least temporarily — because they have been pressuring the European Union to introduce additional tariffs on China over Russian oil and gas exports to China,” said Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency. “I believe they are pleased that instead of tariffs, the main land gateway for Chinese goods is now blocked for a while,” he added. “I’m also quite sure the Americans are smiling and supporting the Polish government in not rushing to reopen it — at least not very soon.” Europe is also at the table, but as Krawczyk noted, “I haven’t seen any reaction from any country — nothing from the Commission and nothing from the capitals. So maybe Europe as well is not unhappy to see the main gateway blocked.” “If this gateway is blocked, then they have to use other routes — for example, air transport or maritime transport … I think, for instance, the ports in Rotterdam and Hamburg would be very happy to receive those goods that can no longer pass through the Polish-Belarusian border,” he added. As for China’s position, Konrad Popławski, an economist at the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies — a government advisory think tank — said the sums at stake are significant, but not game-changing. The closure matters more for China’s inland western provinces, he added, which rely heavily on rail links and lack access to seaports. “Still, we are not talking about vast volumes of trade — it is more of a steady trickle important to some industries, but by no means critical overall.” “The big question is whether the border closure poses a problem of sufficient magnitude — not only for Belarus and Russia, but perhaps also for China — to compel any bigger reaction,” Popławski concluded. But while the value of trade flowing through the Polish-Belarusian border is substantial, he noted, it’s still not large enough to push Beijing to shift its stance on Moscow or Minsk.

LONDON — Britain is sleepwalking through its biggest food safety crisis since the horsemeat scandal of 2013, a group of influential MPs warned as they dismissed a recent personal import ban on EU meat and cheese as “toothless.” The government moved in April to prohibit travelers from EU countries from bringing meat and dairy products into the U.K. following an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease across the continent. However, as reported by POLITICO, the ban has not been fully enforced, with experts warning that U.K. health officials lack the funds to uphold the rules. In a damning report on Monday, the parliament’s Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee warned that “alarming amounts” of meat and dairy products were still being illegally imported for both personal consumption and sale. The committee welcomed the government’s ban on personal imports of meat and dairy from the EU but described it as “toothless,” with prohibited products continuing to enter the U.K. through airports, seaports and the Eurotunnel in freight, parcels, personal baggage and passenger vehicles. “It would not be an exaggeration to say that Britain is sleepwalking through its biggest food safety crisis since the horse meat scandal,” committee chair Alistair Carmichael said. “A still bigger concern is the very real risk of a major animal disease outbreak. The single case of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany this year, most likely caused by illegally imported meat, cost its economy one billion euros.” He urged the government to “get a grip on what has become a crisis” by establishing a national taskforce, boosting food crime intelligence networks, enforcing “real deterrents,” and giving port health and local authorities the resources and powers they need.   During the committee’s nine-month inquiry into animal and plant health, experts painted a gruesome picture of the situation at the border, describing cases of meat arriving in unsanitary conditions, often in the back of vans, stashed in plastic bags, suitcases and cardboard boxes. At the Port of Dover alone, port health officials say they intercepted 70 tons of illegal meat imports from vehicles between January and the end of April, compared with 24 tons during the same period in 2024. During a Public Accounts Committee session on animal disease last week, Emma Miles, director general for food, biosecurity and trade at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said it was unclear whether the increase in the number of seizures of illegal meat at Dover was due to a rise in crime or to better surveillance. “When you’re catching people it might just mean you are doing better surveillance and enforcement,” she said.