Danes head to the polls on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen having called early parliamentary elections after her ruling Social Democrats received a big boost from U.S. President Donald Trump. Frederiksen could have waited until October 2026 to call the vote, but moved early after standing up to Trump’s aggressive threats to annex Greenland earlier this year. Her defiance generated a surge of support for the party just months after it suffered a historic defeat in local elections last October.  But foreign policy won’t carry the day in this election. Voters are focused on domestic issues, while Denmark’s fracturing coalition government — with two other party leaders challenging the prime minister — has turned Tuesday’s vote into a cliffhanger.  WHAT WILL DECIDE THE VOTE?  While Denmark may have come together to resist the pressure from the White House, voters are most concerned about what’s happening at home. Ahead of the vote Danish parties debated a plethora of divisive issues, none of which proved decisive. A poll published by Epinion on Monday suggested almost one in five Danes still didn’t know who they’d vote for.   Everything suggests that Frederiksen’s center-left party, the Social Democrats, will prevail in the vote. Her big talking point has been the revival of a wealth tax that hasn’t been enforced in Denmark for 30 years, and whose reinstatement would thrill left-wing voters. But her main challenger, Deputy Prime Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, leader of the center-right Venstre party, argues the measure will prompt the richest Danes to emigrate, weakening the country’s competitiveness.  Politicians have also debated whether to reinstate the country’s “Great Prayer Day” holiday that Frederiksen’s government abolished in 2024, or to step up efforts to clean polluted drinking water, improve animal welfare, lift the ban on nuclear power, increase defense spending, and tighten migration rules.   RED OR BLUE?  Denmark’s political spectrum has long been divided between a red bloc of left-leaning parties and a blue bloc on the right. In 2022, however, Frederiksen broke with tradition by forming a broad centrist government. The current coalition brings together her Social Democrats with the conservative Venstre party and the liberal Moderates led by former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.  Polls suggest the red and blue blocs are running almost even, with Rasmussen’s Moderates poised to play kingmaker. Support for the red bloc currently translates into 83 seats, while the blue bloc would get 80 — with 90 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. With Frederiksen and Poulsen heading in different directions politically, a repeat of the current coalition government appears unlikely.   That means Rasmussen will likely decide which direction the country goes in if the elections transpire as forecast. Frederiksen has warned that if Rasmussen doesn’t decide to work with her, “then we will, with a very high possibility, get a right-wing government in Denmark.”  Rasmussen has removed himself from contention to become the next prime minister, and has offered instead to mediate the formation of the incoming government. COCAINE-GATE  In the leadup to the vote, the blue bloc’s largest party, the Liberal Alliance, sparked a media frenzy after leader Alex Vanopslagh — a candidate for PM — admitted to using cocaine during his early days as party leader in the mid-2010s. Some 42 percent of Danes said the 34-year-old politician’s drug use had left them less able to see him as the country’s leader.   The parties in the blue bloc have thrown their support behind Venstre’s Poulsen. But with the Liberal Alliance primed to win the most votes on the right, Vanopslagh is insisting the party should be the one to lead if Denmark ends up with a conservative government.  Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh arrives for a debate in Copenhagen on Feb. 26, 2026. | Ida Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images At the same time, he says, he won’t stand in Poulsen’s way. “It won’t be me who ends up derailing a right-wing alliance after the election,” Vanopslagh said on Sunday.  GREENLAND IN THE SPOTLIGHT  For all the domestic focus, Greenland still has a key role to play in Denmark’s election — just not the one you might expect. Greenland and Denmark’s other autonomous territory, the Faroe Islands, each hold two seats in the country’s parliament, and those could prove decisive given how tight the race is.   That could prove a major obstacle for a right-leaning government. According to Lasse Lindegaard, Greenland correspondent at public broadcaster DR, those who represent the islands would be highly unlikely “to back a government that includes or relies on support from the [far-right] Danish People’s Party,” whose leader Morten Messerschmidt has dismissed the idea of Greenland’s independence as “immature and absurd.”  Then there’s the Faroe Islands, which will hold their own parliamentary election just two days after Denmark. Politicians in both self-governing territories are questioning whether to scrap the requirement that they send representatives to the Danish parliament.  “We should enter negotiations with Denmark on an equal partnership — and at that point, we would no longer need our seats in the Danish parliament,” said Beinir Johannesen, leader of the Fólkaflokkurin party and a likely contender for prime minister of the Faroe Islands. THE LOGISTICS  Polls in Denmark open at 8 a.m. on Tuesday and close at 8 p.m. The country uses a proportional representation system, meaning the number of seats that parties win is proportional to their share of the national vote. Exit polls will be published shortly after the polls close, but given how close the race is a definitive outcome may not be clear until late Tuesday evening after all votes have been counted, or even early Wednesday morning.   Then comes the hard part: forming a government. With the two sides so closely matched, the process will almost certainly take weeks. Denmark’s next government is certain to be a coalition, but whether it commands majority or minority support in the parliament remains to be seen. The latter scenario has been the norm in Denmark for decades, but often produces weak prime ministers who must constantly seek the support of other parties under the threat of no-confidence motions. 

LONDON — Keir Starmer will never persuade Donald Trump to love windmills.  But by embracing sweeping reforms of the nuclear power system, the U.K. may finally have found an energy policy the White House likes.  Downing Street on Thursday approved the Fingleton Review, a hefty report calling on the government to speed up building new nuclear power stations by relaxing planning rules, merging regulators, and working more closely with allies itching to invest in the U.K. — including the U.S.  Energy Secretary Ed Miliband touted the report as a “landmark review.” Chancellor Rachel Reeves claimed it would usher in a “new era of global uncertainty.”   But the real winners could be Stateside. “U.S. companies are eager to invest in the U.K., especially in the energy sectors,” Trump’s Ambassador to London Warren Stephens said in a newspaper column late last year.  In the documents approving the Fingleton recommendations, Starmer’s government promised to build on existing deals with the U.S., as well as other countries, “to establish an international regulatory strategy and delivery plan by Autumn 2026.”   That sort of rhetoric gives Downing Street a way to sell itself as open for exactly the sort of U.S. investment Stephens is encouraging, some insiders believe.  “It’s something that No. 10 would probably have its eye on, [given] how much it’s been trumpeting the amount of successful U.S. investment here,” said one senior industry figure familiar with the government’s approach to U.S. nuclear investment, and granted anonymity to speak candidly. They added: “It’s something that No. 10 is very, very keen on,”   ART OF THE DEAL   Starmer’s pursuit of climate-friendly policies consistently threatens to drive a wedge between London and Washington. But the U.K. government used Trump’s state visit last September to announce a series of joint deals to build new nuclear. This includes plans for British Gas owner Centrica and U.S. developer X-Energy to collaborate building 12 nuclear reactors in Hartlepool, north-east England, while Florida-headquartered Holtec has teamed up with EDF and Tritax to develop data centers powered by small modular reactors at an old coal power station in Cottam, in England’s midlands.   Those firms will “ring up the Department of Energy, they’ll ring up [Trump’s Energy Secretary] Chris Wright … and be like: ‘This is good stuff … they put their money where their mouth is,’” said a second senior industry figure, familiar with talks involving U.S. developers and referencing Thursday’s announcement. “You might not hear Trump talk about Hartlepool … but I think you would get some good sounds in the American administration,” they said.   The U.K. government has been wooing Trump on nuclear ever since last summer. “Issues like nuclear cooperation are issues where we can work together with the U.S.,” Miliband said at the time, as an alternative to U.K. policies on fossil fuels and wind turbines, which the president openly derides.  IN HIS SITES Since then, Miliband has been opening up private routes to market for new nuclear, including reforms which relax siting rules so that new nukes, in theory, could be built anywhere in the country.   He has also hinted at selling Oldbury, a plum U.K. site owned by arms-length body Great British Energy Nuclear — with space for up to five small modular reactors, or mini nuclear plants.  Oldbury is “an absolutely prime site” for private firms to sweep in, he told MPs in February. “We have lots of companies from the U.S. working with U.K. companies on these other routes to market,” he said.  Easing planning rules to build nuclear closer to urban centers could open up another site, Heysham in north-west England, to future development. That site is owned by French energy giant EDF but it, too, has been eyed for potential U.S. development.  “If we have clear action, if the government were able to give clarity and certainty on Heysham, it certainly would be a site U.S. investors would look at,” the second industry figure said, citing technical advantages like its proximity to grid connections and local transport access.     WARMING UP WARREN AND WHITEHALL Any such moves could win over Stephens, the ambassador, who jumped on X last year to express his “extreme disappointment” when Miliband’s decision to build mini-nukes in north Wales deprived U.S. nuclear giant Westinghouse of the chance to build a full-size nuclear power plant on the same site.  There are still hurdles to clear, insiders argued, whatever the political intent behind Friday’s decision.  “The tricky thing with the Fingleton Review is not just the political acceptance of it, it’s the officials’ acceptance of it,” feared a third industry figure, citing supposed skepticism about nuclear among British civil servants.   Ministers will have to ensure the plans are not “suffocated by officials,” they said, who could “just be slow, and delay and delay and delay.”   Labour peer and long-standing nuclear advocate Jon Spellar was more optimistic. The bullish response from government to the Fingleton Review showed politicians have “made clear the direction” to Whitehall, and that fears of delay would be “much less of a problem now.”

Poland is looking into whether an attempted cyberattack on a nuclear research facility was carried out by Iran, the government said on Thursday. The country’s digital minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said in an emailed statement that Poland had “identified an attempted cyberattack on the servers of the National Centre for Nuclear Research,” which authorities had thwarted. He told local media that the attack was carried out “in the past few days,” Reuters reported.  The nuclear center said in a statement that “all safety systems operated according to procedures.” A reactor is “operating safely and smoothly at full power,” Jakub Kupecki, the center’s director said in the statement. The facility carries out research into nuclear energy; Poland does not have nuclear weapons of its own.  Polish cybersecurity services and the energy ministry are working with the facility, Gawkowski said.  The minister told local media that there are early signals suggesting the attack came from Iran, Reuters reported. “The first identifications of the entry vectors … are related to Iran,” he said, adding that more investigation is required.  Gawkowski added that hackers could also have used indicators linking the attack to Iran in efforts to hide their real origins. Poland has faced a huge number of Russian cyberattacks since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Western cyber and intelligence agencies have warned critical entities to be on high alert for Iranian cyberattacks following the start of the conflict in late February. The Iranian embassy in Warsaw did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Der Nahe Osten steht am Rand eines regionalen Flächenbrands. Nach massiven Militärschlägen von den USA und Israel reagiert der Iran mit Gegenschlägen, weitet den Konflikt über Ländergrenzen hinweg aus und erhöht gezielt die politischen und wirtschaftlichen Kosten für die gesamte Region. Im Gespräch mit Peter Neumann (King’s College London) geht es um die zentrale Frage: Steuern wir auf einen großen regionalen Krieg zu – oder auf einen schnellen Waffenstillstand? Neumann analysiert die strategischen Ziele Washingtons, die Rolle der iranischen Revolutionsgarden, die Gefahr eines internen Machtkampfs in Teheran und warum ein Regimewechsel durch Luftschläge allein historisch kaum funktioniert. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. **(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht der PKV: Wir sind die Fair-zu-Jugendlichen-Versicherung. Warum? Weil wir die wachsende Zahl älterer Menschen versorgen können, ohne die Jüngeren damit zu belasten. Dafür bilden wir von Versicherungsbeginn an Rücklagen, die stetig Zinsen einbringen. Für unsere Versicherten haben wir so bereits über 350 Milliarden Euro zurückgelegt, um ihre mit dem Alter steigenden Behandlungskosten abzusichern. Mehr auf pkv.de** POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0  information@axelspringer.de  Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music After a weekend of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — Brussels is moving to coordinate its diplomatic response. EU ambassadors convened, foreign ministers met online and Ursula von der Leyen called the Defense College. But as tensions escalate across the region, is Europe shaping events — or reacting to them? Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack the EU’s balancing act: condemning Iran’s retaliation, avoiding direct criticism of Washington and trying to remain strategically relevant in a crisis unfolding beyond its borders. Plus: Emmanuel Macron unveils his vision for Europe’s nuclear future from France’s submarine base — and in Brussels, a debate over whether 250,000 EU citizens living in the Belgian capital should get the right to vote in regional elections. You can reach us on our WhatsApp at: +32 491 05 06 29. **A message for Amazon: Today's episode is presented by Amazon. Sixty percent of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers. Across Europe, over two hundred and eighty thousand Small and Medium Enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Learn more at Aboutamazon.eu. **

PARIS — Far-right leader Jordan Bardella pushed back against President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to make France’s nuclear doctrine more European in an interview Friday. “What I dispute in this dialogue [with European countries] is that we are wrong to think that deterrence is only nuclear; it is primarily conventional, and here again we have missions in Eastern Europe that must be maintained,” the National Rally’s president told TV news channel LCI, referring to French troop presence in Romania and Estonia and air policing missions in the Baltics. “As members of NATO and the EU, we have a duty to provide mutual assistance,” he added. Bardella acknowledged that France’s nuclear doctrine has always foreseen that the country’s vital interests do not stop at the French borders. “When it comes to nuclear power, I defend principles, and those principles are that there can be no sharing, no co-financing, and no co-decision-making on the nuclear button,” the MEP also said. The Elysée Palace has always stressed that any decision to launch a nuclear weapon would remain with the French president. The National Rally, historically skeptical of engagement with both NATO and the European Union, is leading early polls for next year’s pivotal presidential election. If longtime leader Marine Le Pen’s appeal to shorten or overturn her five-year election ban related to embezzlement charges is unsuccessful, the 30-year-old Bardella will likely run in her place. Bardella’s remarks come a few days ahead of a landmark speech Macron is set to deliver on how France’s nuclear weapons can contribute to Europe’s security. Paris has been in talks with European capitals such as Berlin, Stockholm and Warsaw over how French nukes could help the continent deter Russian President Vladimir Putin. Alongside the United Kingdom, France is one of two Western European nuclear powers. Its arsenal is both airborne and seaborne, with at least one submarine patrolling the seas at all times. When asked whether the National Rally would be open to bringing back a land-based nuclear deterrent — a capacity that France has abandoned after the Cold War — Bardella replied: “It could be part of the debate.” During the interview, Bardella also reiterated his party’s pledge to leave NATO’s integrated command if it came to power. Bardella’s comments come across as more nuanced than other members of the National Rally. “If Mr. Macron thinks he can give France’s nuclear weapons to the EU, he will face impeachment proceedings for treason,” said Philippe Olivier, another MEP from the far-right party and a close adviser to Le Pen.

PARIS — With only 14 months left in power, President Emmanuel Macron is now in a race against the clock to chart how France can wield the full force of its nuclear arsenal to guarantee Europe’s security more widely. Much will boil down to whether he makes concrete commitments in a landmark speech on France’s atomic strategy on Monday, to be delivered from the Atlantic peninsula where the country’s nuclear submarines are based. After decades sheltering under the American nuclear umbrella, European governments — particularly in Berlin and Warsaw — are increasingly warming to the idea that Paris could use Western Europe’s largest atomic arsenal to play a bigger role in safeguarding the continent’s security. They will be paying close attention to how far Macron goes in Monday’s speech. With the war in Ukraine entering its fifth year and fears about U.S. President Donald Trump’s reliability as an ally, they will want pledges of action rather than the president’s traditional rhetoric. Their big question, however, will be how much of a new European atomic architecture Macron can realistically lock in, with the NATO-skeptic, far-right opposition National Rally party of Marine Le Pen leading in early polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election. European officials, military officers and diplomats who spoke to POLITICO for this article said they hoped he proposes something substantive. One senior EU government official said they had “great hopes,” while a European military officer expected “a major change.” The speech will lay out whether Macron is willing to do something that the National Rally will find hard to unwind. Only the most far-reaching moves — deploying nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets in European nations, for example, or stationing French nuclear warheads outside the country — would prove difficult for the next French president to reverse without weakening France’s credibility. “It would appear that the president has a genuine desire to commit France to something that the National Rally would not be able to overturn if it came to power,” said Florian Galleri, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who specializes in nuclear deterrence. However, he conceded, “under political or economic constraints, the speech may be much more cautious, even deliberately vague.”  France has long suggested its roughly 300 warheads could play a bigger role in a wider European security strategy, but Germany, with more developed transatlantic instincts, has traditionally been warier. That’s changing, though, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz earlier this month opened the door to German forces operating with French and British nuclear weapons. There are also concerns that some countries could decide to go it alone: Polish President Karol Nawrocki said earlier this month that his country should start developing nuclear defenses to face the threat from Moscow. FRENCH-LED EUROPEAN DETERRENT Elysée officials declined to predict what Macron would say, but options include an increase in France’s nuclear warheads, and the participation of European countries in France’s flagship Poker exercise that simulates a nuclear raid. European lawmakers have told POLITICO they would like to see French nuclear-capable fighter jets stationed in other countries.  The expectation is that Macron “will confirm nuclear deterrence is and will remain one of France’s priorities, and also that France is continuing to invest” in its arsenal, Estonia’s Undersecretary for Defence Policy Tuuli Duneton told POLITICO.  Alongside the U.K., France is one of two Western European nuclear powers. Its arsenal is both airborne and seaborne, with at least one submarine patrolling the seas at all times. | Alexis Rosenfeld/Getty Images However, French officials have one clear red line: Any decision to launch a nuclear strike would remain in Paris. “At the end of the day, who would be able to push the button? Only France. That’s also what makes the conversation complicated,” said a second European military officer.   Alongside the U.K., France is one of two Western European nuclear powers. Its arsenal is both airborne and seaborne, with at least one submarine patrolling the seas at all times. Unlike the U.K., Paris is not part of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group, although French presidents have always stressed that France’s vital national interests have a European dimension.  Paris’ push to discuss how French nuclear weapons could contribute to the continent’s security wasn’t always welcome among European leaders — but Trump’s return to the White House has changed that calculus, including in countries such as Poland and Sweden.  Germany’s about-face has been the most striking. Berlin was once among the capitals most opposed to such talks, and is now openly confirming discussions with France. But there are definite difficulties if the umbrella is expanded on a country-by-country basis. A senior German official told POLITICO that Berlin would not foot the bill for an arsenal fully controlled by the French.  A NATO official also cautioned that limiting France’s defensive circle to specific EU countries could send the wrong signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin and expose the rest — a concern Merz himself raised at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month. “We … will not allow zones of differing security levels to develop in Europe,” he said. SHADOW OF 2027 Crucially, Macron’s nuclear speech comes just 14 months before he leaves office. “We need to understand how sustainable France’s commitment is,” a European defense official stressed.  All eyes are on the National Rally. The far-right party’s leaders have openly spoken against Macron’s nuclear dialogue with European allies. The party is internally divided over its stance toward Russia, and believes in pulling out of NATO’s integrated command structure. While Le Pen has stressed that “nuclear power belongs to the French,” her protégé Jordan Bardella — the current favorite for the presidency after Macron — has struck a more open tone, insisting that the defense of French interests “does not stop at [French] borders.” He has not, however, endorsed Macron’s outreach on the nuclear umbrella.  European governments — particularly in Berlin and Warsaw — are increasingly warming to the idea that Paris could use Western Europe’s largest atomic arsenal to play a bigger role in safeguarding the continent’s security. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images The prospect of a National Rally win next year is creating “a credibility problem for the French offer,” a European diplomat conceded.  Some European capitals, along with some EU officials in Brussels, are already factoring that in. That’s especially true in Germany, where some German officials and lawmakers are already working under the assumption that the next French president will be Le Pen or Bardella, several French and European officials told POLITICO.  Jacopo Barigazzi reported from Brussels. Victor Jack contributed to this report.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music An air raid siren sounded as we were wrapping up our interview with the EU’s ambassador in Kyiv. On this week’s EU Confidential, Sarah Wheaton speaks with Katarína Mathernová about what it means to live — and work — in a city under near-constant Russian threat. From bombardments, freezing temperatures and winter blackouts to EU accession hopes, we ask how Ukraine is holding up as another February anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion approaches. Later, Sarah is joined by POLITICO’s defense editor Jan Cienski to unpack a debate gaining momentum across Europe: whether the continent needs to rethink its ultimate deterrent as long-held security assumptions begin to shift. **A message from Neste: The world needs to keep moving, but with reduced emissions. Neste’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel are available today. Let’s fuel change. Learn more at neste.com/change.**

PARIS — France’s presidential election may still be more than 14 months away, but the campaign is already well under way. Traditionally, French campaigns don’t get going until after the August holidays of the year before, but the stakes for the 2027 contest are so high — given the potential victory of a far-right president skeptical of the European Union and NATO — that the race is now on. Almost every policy agenda in France, from the environment to business regulation, is now being viewed through the lens of the next presidential election, in which the centrist Emmanuel Macron will be unable to stand. Take last week’s World Impact Summit in Paris. Ostensibly a discussion about Europe’s green transition, it turned into a forum for far higher-level political maneuvers. Presidential hopefuls Marine Tondelier of the Greens, Jordan Bardella of the far-right National Rally, centrist Gabriel Attal and the center-left’s Raphaël Glucksmann all used the sustainability debate on stage to lay out rival visions for the nation and the Elysée. “We need to prepare the future,” former Prime Minister Attal said. “The country faces a crucial moment of truth in 2027, important for France and Europe.” The influential business lobby Medef is also moving early to make its voice heard in the campaign, and is arranging lunches for captains of industry with would-be candidates such as Bardella, Attal and Socialist leader Olivier Faure. Crucially, political parties are treating next month’s municipal elections as a dress rehearsal for the presidential contest. The far-right National Rally is hoping to cement its status as France’s predominant political force, while the left and center are gunning to prove they’re still relevant. “It is going to be a very long campaign,” said OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart. A NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE Being first out of the gate in French elections isn’t necessarily an advantage — as discovered by former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who confirmed his candidacy months ago and was initially seen as a front-runner. He’s now lagging in the polls. Liberal former Prime Minister François Bayrou, whose presidential aspirations are an open secret, has long said all that matters for candidates is that they’re in the discussion the Christmas before the election “at the earliest.” And France’s strict campaign finance laws mean there’s no need to fundraise early to accumulate a massive war chest. But the prospect of a far-right French president has sent the mainstream political establishment scrambling for a champion to take on Bardella or the National Rally’s preferred standard-bearer, Marine Le Pen, who is appealing an embezzlement conviction that has knocked her out of the contest. Parts of the political left and right are considering primaries even before the two-round race, but not all are buying into the idea. | Xavier Laine/Getty Images There isn’t an obvious mainstream candidate to lead the pack given how Macron’s 2017 election laid waste to France’s traditional left-right landscape. The political center has splintered, with a hodgepodge of candidates racing to fill Macron’s shoes. Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin warned against having too many candidates, particularly Philippe and Attal on the center right. “Competition is normal and legitimate,” he told the broadcaster RTL last week. “But if there’s more than one candidate, it’s possible that they won’t both reach the run-off. We urgently need to agree.” Lesser-known politicians such as Socialist lawmaker Jérôme Guedj, who joined the fray last week, are starting early in the hope of using the extra time to build a brand with voters. Guedj joins Philippe and Tondelier, the leader of the Greens, as already confirmed candidates. Others have been more coy about 2027 but appear to be gearing up for a run: They include former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, leader of the center-right Les Républicains Bruno Retailleau, and the conservative head of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand. Medef, the business lobby, said it was bringing forward the launch of its candidate lunches to adjust to this new reality. “The earlier we engage with them, the greater chance we have of influencing their positions,” said a Medef board member who, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST Most political observers say the field of candidates is getting too large. Few agree on how to narrow it down. Parts of the political left and right are considering primaries even before the two-round race, but not all are buying into the idea — particularly those who have marginal leads and might lose their advantage to lesser-known candidates. Others argue for a Darwinian approach, letting the massive field duke it out on the campaign trail. “I’m convinced we need to agree on a candidate as late as possible,” said a former centrist minister. “It’s an extraordinary election, the campaign can’t be business as usual.” The week in between the two rounds of next month’s municipal election will offer vital clues going forward, as French political parties will be forced in certain contests to form alliances of convenience if they wish to block ideological opponents from victory. “Local elections are determined by local issues so we can’t project the result onto the national level,” said the pollster Jeanbart. “But it will tell us how the parties relate to each other.”

PALM BEACH, Florida — President Donald Trump expressed optimism about making progress on a deal to end the war in Ukraine as he welcomed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Sunday. But just as he expressed his belief that Ukraine’s revised 20-point peace plan offered “the makings of a deal,” he brushed off a question about whether he would sign a commitment to providing Ukraine specific postwar security guarantees, signaling that there are still several hurdles to overcome. “No one knows what the security agreement will say,” Trump shot back at a reporter. “What a dumb question.” Trump, who made initial comments as he welcomed Zelenskyy in the driveway of his Florida estate, said he didn’t have a hard deadline for a deal but asserted that talks are now in the “final stages.” “We’re going to see — otherwise [the war is] going to go on for a long time. It will either end or it’s going to go on a long time and millions of additional people are going to be killed, millions.” He intended to call Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he already spoke with on Sunday morning, again after sitting down with Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy has worked in recent weeks with European leaders and Trump’s top two interlocutors, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, to revise an initial 28-point plan offered by the White House. Trump and Zelensky sat inside an ornate dining room in Mar-a-Lago for their bilateral meeting, flanked by their respective delegations. The U.S. side included Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, as well as Witkoff and Kushner. Zelenskyy said it was important to travel to the U.S. to discuss the plan with Trump in person to try to make progress on several unresolved issues, including territorial concessions in the Donbas, future control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and nailing down the specific American security guarantees that would serve as a deterrent to Russia eventually resuming the war. Zelenskyy, who Trump has pressured at times over the past year to “settle” the war, is again striving to demonstrate that Ukraine is far more willing to make concessions in pursuit of peace than Russia has seemed to be. “We want peace, and Russia demonstrates a desire to continue the war,” Zelenskyy told reporters on Saturday prior to arriving in Florida. “If anyone — whether the U.S. or Europe — is on Russia’s side, this means the war will continue.” Zelenskyy has also agreed to hold elections in Ukraine if a peace plan can be reached, a Russian demand that Trump has latched onto. The president said that there would be economic benefits for Ukraine once the war ends but was noncommittal when asked if the billions in Russia frozen assets would go to Ukraine to rebuild after the war ends. He appeared optimistic about peace talks while greeting the Ukrainian president, repeating his claim that both Ukraine and Russia want to see an end to the war. He also praised his European counterparts, calling them “terrific people” who want to get a peace deal done. Veronika Melkozerova contributed to this report.