Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO Europe. Over the past few days, Ukraine has been hitting Russia back as hard as it can with long-range drone strikes, and it has three objectives in mind: lifting Ukrainian spirits as the country suffers blackouts from Russia’s relentless air attacks; demonstrating to Western allies that it has plenty of fight left; and, finally, cajoling Moscow into being serious about peace negotiations and offering concessions. However, the latter is likely to be a forlorn endeavor. And at any rate, amid the ongoing diplomatic chaos, which negotiations are they aiming for? U.S. President Donald Trump’s negotiators have been talking up the prospects of a peace deal — or at least being closer to one than at any time since Russia’s invasion began nearly four years ago. But few in either Kyiv or Europe’s other capitals are persuaded the Kremlin is negotiating in good faith and wants a peace deal that will stick. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz certainly doesn’t think so. Last week, he argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin is just spinning things out, “clearly playing for time.” Many Ukrainian politicians are also of a similar mind, including Yehor Cherniev, deputy chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of Ukraine’s Rada: “We see all the signals they’re preparing to continue the war, increasing arms production, intensifying their strikes on our energy infrastructure,” he told POLITICO.  “When it comes to the talks, I think the Russians are doing as much as they can to avoid irritating Donald Trump, so he won’t impose more sanctions on them,” he added. Indeed, according to fresh calculations by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs’ Janis Kluge, Russia has increased its military spending by another 30 percent year-on-year, reaching a record $149 billion in the first nine months of 2025. The war effort is now eating up about 44 percent of all Russian federal tax revenue — a record high. And as social programs are gutted to keep up, some Western optimists believe that Russia’s anemic growing economy and the staggering cost of war mean Putin soon won’t have any realistic option but to strike an agreement. But predictions of economic ruin forcing Putin’s hand have been made before. And arguably, Russia’s war economy abruptly unwinding may pose greater political and social risks to his regime than continuing his war of attrition, as Russian beneficiaries — including major business groups, security services and military combatants — would suffer a serious loss of income while seeking to adapt to a postwar economy. The war also has the added bonus of justifying domestic political repression. War isn’t only a means but an end in itself for Putin, and patriotism can be a helpful tool in undermining dissent. Nonetheless, the introduction of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner as a key negotiator is significant — he is “Trump’s closer” after all, and his full engagement suggests Washington does think it can clinch a deal with one last heave. Earlier this month, U.S. Special Envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg had indicated a deal was “really close,” with a final resolution hanging on just two key issues: the future of the Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The negotiations are in the “last 10 meters,” he said. But again, which negotiations? Those between Washington and Moscow? Or those between Washington and Kyiv and the leaders of Europe’s coalition of the willing? Either way, both have work to do if there is to be an end to the war. Putin has refused to negotiate with Kyiv and Europe directly, in effect dispatching Trump to wring out concessions from them. And no movement Trump’s negotiators secure seems to satisfy a Kremlin that’s adept at dangling the carrot — namely, a possible deal to burnish the U.S. president’s self-cherished reputation as a great dealmaker, getting him ever closer to that coveted Nobel Peace Prize. Of course, for Putin, it all has the added benefit of straining the Western alliance, exploiting the rifts between Washington and Europe and widening them. All the frenzied diplomacy underway now seems more about appeasing Trump and avoiding the blame for failed negotiations or for striking a deal that doesn’t stick — like the Minsk agreements. For example, longtime Putin opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s New Eurasian Strategies Center believes the Russian president remains “convinced that Russia retains an advantage on the battlefield,” and therefore “sees no need to offer concessions.” “He prefers a combination of military action and diplomatic pressure — a tactic that, in the Kremlin’s view, the West is no longer able to resist. At the same time, any peace agreement that meets Russia’s conditions would set the stage for a renewed conflict. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself would be weakened as a result of the inevitable political crisis triggered by territorial concessions, and the transatlantic security system would be undermined. This would create an environment that is less predictable and more conducive to further Russian pressure,” they conclude. Indeed, the only deal that might satisfy Putin would be one that, in effect, represents Ukrainian capitulation — no NATO membership, a cap on the size of Ukraine’s postwar armed forces, the loss of all of the Donbas, recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and no binding security guarantees. But this isn’t a deal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy can ink — or if he did, it would throw Ukraine into existential political turmoil. “I don’t see the Parliament ever passing anything like that,” opposition lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova told POLITICO. And if it did, “it might lead to a civil war” with many patriots who have fought, seeing it as a great betrayal, she added. “Everybody understands, and everybody supports Zelenskyy in doing what he’s doing in these negotiations because we understand if he gives up, we’re done for.” Not that she thinks he will. So, don’t expect any breakthroughs in the so-called peace talks this week. Putin will maintain his maximalist demands while sorrowfully suggesting a deal could be struck if only Zelenskyy would be realistic, while the Ukrainian leader and his European backers will do their best to counter. And they will all be performing to try and stay in Trump’s good books.  

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Europa muss sich sicherheitspolitisch neu sortieren. Gordon Repinski spricht mit der Politikwissenschaftlerin Florence Gaub darüber, warum die Debatten über europäische Eigenständigkeit seit Jahrzehnten immer wiederkehren und weshalb der aktuelle Moment dennoch eine andere Qualität hat. Gaub erklärt, wie sehr die Reaktionen Europas weniger von amerikanischen Entscheidungen als von einem eigenen Gefühl der Schwäche geprägt sind und warum dieser Kontinent lernen muss, strategisch zu denken und langfristig zu planen. Im Zentrum stehen grundlegende Fragen: Warum gelingt es Europa trotz wachsender Bedrohungen so schwer, den entscheidenden Schritt zu mehr Handlungsfähigkeit zu gehen. Welche politischen Entscheidungen fehlen und was braucht es, damit Gesellschaften Resilienz entwickeln. Gaub beschreibt die strukturellen Ursachen für langsame militärische Prozesse, die kulturellen Besonderheiten Deutschlands und die verbreitete Annahme, dass Konflikte Europa nicht mehr betreffen könnten. Der Podcast blickt außerdem auf konkrete Szenarien. Von Sabotage bis Cyberangriff, von Desinformation bis zur Frage, wie man überhaupt erkennt, dass ein Angriff stattfindet. Gaub macht deutlich, wie sehr Unsicherheit inzwischen Teil moderner Konflikte ist und warum Demokratien in der Defensive häufig stärker reagieren als in der Offensive. Und es geht um mögliche Wege nach vorn. Eine engere europäische Zusammenarbeit, flexible Formate jenseits des Einstimmigkeitsprinzips und eine neue Ehrlichkeit in der Frage, wofür Europa bereit ist, einzustehen. Gaub zeichnet ein Bild, das nüchtern ist, aber auch zeigt, welches Potenzial Europa hätte, wenn es bereit wäre, diese Rolle anzunehmen. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. Legal Notice (Belgium) POLITICO SRL Forme sociale: Société à Responsabilité Limitée Siège social: Rue De La Loi 62, 1040 Bruxelles Numéro d’entreprise: 0526.900.436 RPM Bruxelles info@politico.eu www.politico.eu

The exiled widow of Russia’s late opposition leader Alexei Navalny told POLITICO on Thursday that remaining hopeful about her home country is part of her job. “I really have big hopes for Russia,” Yulia Navalnaya said in an interview at this year’s POLITICO 28 event. “I understand that it’s very difficult moment. It’s very difficult, difficult moment for the world. It’s very difficult moment for Europe, and, of course, it’s awful time for Russia.” “But still, as I said, it’s very important for me to continue my husband’s work … He every day showed me, for many years, that never give up.” Navalnaya, who lives in exile, has become a prominent voice for anti-Kremlin Russians since the sudden and mysterious death of her husband in a prison camp north of the Arctic Circle in February 2024.  Even after Navalny’s death, Russian authorities have continued to crack down on associates of the late politician. In November, a Russian court designated Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation a “terrorist organization,” exposing anyone associated with the group to a potential life sentence. Navalnaya said Russians who opposed the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine or the country’s President Vladimir Putin were “living in fear.”  Invoking her husband’s legacy, however, she called on her fellow citizens and people elsewhere to “be resistant, to believe in their beliefs, to believe in their values.”

Ukraine’s soldiers are doing much better in the pitched battles in the east of the country than Russia is letting on, Kyiv’s top commander said, denouncing what he called Kremlin “disinformation” aimed at influencing a foreign audience. This week’s briefing by Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi is aimed at changing the narrative as Ukraine comes under fierce pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to throw in the towel and agree to a peace deal his people initially sketched out with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It might seem like Ukraine “is only withdrawing” against Russia’s incessant attacks, but in reality, Kyiv is holding the line and has even been able to retake some ground in key contested towns in recent days, Syrskyi said. He said Ukraine wants to show it is “not just retreating,” but as soon as Kyiv spells out areas where it has retaken control, “the enemy immediately transfers additional troops there, or missiles fly there. For us, this causes additional losses while we are trying to minimize them.” He talked to reporters in Kyiv as Russia continues to grind out incremental gains bought at horrendous cost against fierce Ukrainian resistance. Earlier this month, the Russian defense ministry claimed its troops succeeded in occupying the crucial frontline city of Pokrovsk, as well as surrounding Ukrainian troops in nearby Myrnohrad and also taking over Vovchyansk and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian army insists that its forces are back in parts of Pokrovsk. It says small groups of Russian soldiers are infiltrating to pose for pictures with flags for propaganda purposes, but don’t fully control the shattered ruins of the city. AN AUDIENCE OF ONE While Russia’s frontline gains are small, the Kremlin hopes to persuade Ukraine’s backers that continued support for Kyiv is futile. That is the message that’s being received in Washington. In an interview with POLITICO this week, Trump underlined that he wants Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to a peace deal, fast. “Well, he’s gonna have to get on the ball and start accepting things, you know, when you’re losing — because you’re losing,” Trump said. The first iteration of the plan called for Ukraine to hand over key defensive areas in the Donetsk region, including Pokrovsk, but has since been modified following strong protests from Kyiv and European countries. Zelenskyy is insisting that he will not hand over any Ukrainian territory to Russia. This week’s briefing by Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi is aimed at changing the narrative as Ukraine comes under fierce pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to throw in the towel and agree to a peace deal. | Oksana Parafeniuk/Getty Images Syrskyi underlined that Russia’s gains are much smaller than the Kremlin lets on. “The scale of Russian lies exceeds the real pace of troop advance by many times,” Syrskyi said. “The enemy uses disinformation and fake maps in a hybrid war against Ukraine, influencing both a foreign audience and our society and our army.” The Institute of the Study of War said in an update released Tuesday that Russian forces have gained only 0.77 percent of Ukrainian territory so far this year while suffering disproportionately high personnel costs. The Russian campaign to militarily seize the rest of Donetsk, including a belt of heavily fortified cities, would likely take at least two to three years, pose a significant challenge, and result in difficult and costly battles that Russia may not be able to sustain, ISW said. “Russia’s cognitive warfare effort aims to push Ukraine and the West to cede this heavily defended territory to Russia without a fight, allowing Russia to avoid spending significant amounts of time and resources to try to seize it on the battlefield,” the think tank added. Syrskyi said that in some areas, Russian forces are only moving forward less than 5 kilometers per month. “At such pace, the advance of the Russians with daily losses of more than 1,000 people is a negligible result,” the general added. However, Syrskyi admitted that the situation is harsh for Ukrainian troops defending Pokrovsk, where Russia has poured 156,000 men into the fight. “It is currently the main theater of military operations,” Syrskyi said. He admitted that this fall, Ukrainian troops did fully withdraw from Pokrovsk, but on Nov. 15, they conducted a counteroffensive and retook almost half the city. “We continue to hold the northern part of the city, approximately along the railway line. In addition, west of Pokrovsk, we have cleared and controlled about 54 square kilometers,” Syrskyi said. “The situation is difficult, especially during fog and rain. The enemy takes advantage of the weather conditions to enter the city, avoiding damage from our UAVs. However, in the future, we are only increasing the number of our group within Pokrovsk,” the commander added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday his country will not make territorial concessions to Russia as the Trump administration looks to broker a peace deal between the two countries. Zelenskyy told reporters following a meeting with leaders from France, Germany and the U.K. in London that Ukraine has “no right to give anything away” — under Ukrainian, international or moral law — according to The Washington Post. Zelenskyy’s comments come as the Ukrainian leader faces growing pressure from the U.S. to accept a framework to bring to an end more than three years of fighting since Russia escalated its war with Ukraine in 2022. The first draft of that framework drew skepticism from Ukrainian and European leaders — as well as bipartisan lawmakers in the U.S. — after a leaked draft echoed several key Russian demands, including that Ukraine agree to give up the Donbas region and agree not to join NATO. Peace talks between the U.S. and Ukraine have since hit a roadblock as the Trump administration insists that Kyiv cede the region in eastern Ukraine. Zelenskyy said ahead of his trip to London that Ukrainian representatives had held “substantive discussions” with U.S. peace envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, but he added that “the conversation was constructive, though not easy.” “Today, we held a detailed discussion on our joint diplomatic work with the American side, aligned a shared position on the importance of security guarantees and reconstruction, and agreed on the next steps,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media following the meeting. Trump told reporters on Sunday evening that the Kremlin was “fine” with the latest version of a peace deal but that Zelenskyy “isn’t ready,” adding that he was “a little bit disappointed that President Zelenskyy hasn’t yet read the proposal.” Zelenskyy is also set to meet with the leaders of NATO, the European Council and the European Union in Brussels.

Russia will seize Donbas as well as Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions one way or another, President Vladimir Putin warned Thursday in an interview with the India Today television channel. “It all comes down to this. Either we liberate these territories by force of arms, or Ukrainian troops leave these territories and stop fighting there,” Putin told the Indian news station ahead of a visit to New Delhi, where he is due to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Russian leader’s statement comes during yet another round of peace efforts spearheaded by American officials and reaffirms that he has no intention of backing down from his maximalist war goals. According to open-source maps of the conflict, Russian forces now control about 80 percent of the Donbas region, made up of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia this week claimed it had — after more than a year of fighting — captured the key city of Pokrovsk, which Ukraine has rejected. Ceding Donbas was one of the points in the 28-point-plan, circulated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s team, which drew criticism from Ukrainian and European officials as heavily lopsided in Russia’s favor. An updated proposal watered down some of the more pro-Russian aspects of the initial plan. Meetings between U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Putin to discuss the updated plan yielded no progress toward ending the war in Ukraine, and instead saw the Kremlin blaming Europe for thwarting the peace process. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly vowed that Ukraine will not give up Donbas as part of the ceasefire deal as that would give Putin a springboard for a future invasion.

North Korea has introduced Russian as a compulsory subject in schools from the 4th grade onward. Alexander Kozlov, minister of natural resources and environment and co-chair of the intergovernmental commission of the Russian Federation and North Korea, said at a commission meeting in Moscow that currently, some 600 people in North Korea study Russian. This makes it one of the top three most popular languages in the country. In Russia, 3,000 schoolchildren and 300 university students study Korean, he said. He added that last year, 96 North Korean citizens were accepted to Russian universities, including MGIMO, the university that trains diplomats. A further 29 were enrolled in geology courses in Russia this year. Kozlov said the two countries are cooperating in education across sectors such as banking, energy, medicine, and geology. He added that Russia is building a center in North Korea that will offer Russian-language education at Kim Chol Ju Normal University. Traditionally strong Russian ties with North Korea have been growing since the former’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. North Korea has been supplying weapons to Russia and sending troops to fight on the front lines and to demine the Kursk region, a Russian territory briefly occupied by Ukraine. Two of the world’s most prolific state-linked cybercrime groups — Russia’s Gamaredon and North Korea’s Lazarus collective — have also been spotted sharing resources. In August 2025, Russian tourists flocked to North Korean resorts as Russian airlines launched direct flights to Pyongyang. 

A new Ukraine peace plan circulated by President Donald Trump’s U.S. administration outlines a detailed 28-point framework aimed at ending Russia’s war on its neighbor. The proposal — which was initially published on Ukrainian Telegram channels, later obtained and verified by POLITICO, and titled “U.S.-Russia-drafted peace plan” — would confirm Ukraine’s sovereignty, but limit its armed forces to 600,000 personnel and bar the country from joining NATO permanently. Elements of the proposal were harshly criticized by European and Ukrainian officials on Thursday, claiming that Trump’s plan only favors Moscow and would encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to attack NATO next.  NATO should also agree to “not accept Ukraine at any moment in the future” and “not to deploy its troops in Ukraine,” according to the text. In return, Russia would commit to not attack again and be granted reintegration into the global economy, including potential sanctions relief that will be discussed “on a case-by-case basis” and an invitation to return to the G7 — which was formerly the G8 before Russia was booted out in 2014 after its illegal annexation of Crimea and military intervention in eastern Ukraine. Crimea, and the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian territory, while land in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will be frozen along current frontlines. The plan also recognizes Ukraine’s “right to EU membership” as well as a major international reconstruction package, funded in part by currently frozen Russian assets. The agreement would also establish a Peace Council, chaired by Trump, to oversee implementation and enforce sanctions for violations. “Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides withdraw to the agreed positions required to begin implementation of the agreement,” the final point said. Read the full peace plan here.

WARSAW — Poland will close Russia’s last consulate in the country in retaliation to what the government says was a Moscow-backed attempt at sabotaging an important rail line last weekend, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Wednesday. “I have decided to withdraw consent for the operation of the last Russian consulate,” Sikorski told a press briefing. “This will be communicated to the Russian side in the coming hours in an official note. We do not plan to break off diplomatic relations [with Russia], just as other countries don’t do so when acts of terror or sabotage take place on their territory,” he added. Sikorski’s announcement came after he delivered an address to parliament that called on opposition-aligned President Karol Nawrocki and opposition lawmakers to stop attacking the European Union, Ukraine and Ukrainians living in Poland. He also said Russia spends “billions” on sowing divisions in the EU and fomenting anti-Ukrainian sentiment — of which there has been an outpouring in Poland after the rail sabotage incident. Polish authorities said the perpetrators were two Ukrainian nationals working for Russia who are now in Belarus. The last operating Russian consulate in Poland is in the coastal city of Gdańsk. Poland had previously shut down Russian consulates in Kraków and Poznań in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine and hybrid sabotage incidents in Poland. The Gdańsk consulate will close by December 23, Polish news website Onet reported, quoting Russian diplomat Andrei Ordash speaking to the Russian news outlet RIA Novosti. Russia’s remaining diplomatic post will then be its embassy in Warsaw, even though its future appears uncertain after a motion to call on the government to evict it reportedly won approval of the ruling coalition and most of the opposition, meaning it might be up for a parliamentary vote soon. Since last weekend, Poland has been dealing with the aftermath of what Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said was a Russia-orchestrated attempt at destroying an important rail line linking Warsaw to Lublin, a major city in the east, and on to Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Wednesday that relations with Poland were at a low point. “The relationship with Poland has fully degraded. This [Gdańsk consulate closure] is a sign of the decline and of the Polish authorities’ intent to reduce to zero any possibility of consular or diplomatic relations. We can only express regret,”  Peskov said in his morning briefing, according to the Interfax news agency. Moscow will scale back Poland’s diplomatic and consular presence in Russia in retaliation, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told the government-owned TASS news agency.

Romanian authorities evacuated a village on the border with Ukraine after Russian drones struck and set ablaze a tanker loaded with gas on the Danube River. The village of Plauru in the commune of Ceatalchioi sits just a few hundred meters from the burning ship, which “could explode at any time,” Tudor Cernega, the mayor of Ceatalchioi, told Romanian news site Digi24. “We checked house by house, we also took out the animals,” the mayor said. “We closed off traffic, the danger is great.” Romania’s Department for Emergency Situations said in a statement on social media the blaze was the result of a “drone attack carried out on the territory of Ukraine” on Sunday night, which caused “a ship loaded with LPG” to be “engulfed in flames in the area of Izmail,” a Ukrainian port city in the southwest of the country bordering Romania. The department added it had ordered the evacuation of the entire commune of Ceatalchioi, which is home to about 250 people, and would send vehicles and ambulances. The ship, the Turkish-flagged ORINDA, is capable of carrying about 1.8 million gallons of liquefied petroleum gas. Its crew were also evacuated after the blaze broke out, with video showing plumes of fire and smoke billowing from the vessel. Moscow has frequently targeted Ukrainian port facilities situated on the Danube throughout its full-scale invasion, with drone parts found on Romania’s side of the river on several occasions.