LONDON — The U.K. government is “dragging its heels” on whether to classify
China as a major threat to Britain’s national security, the parliament’s
intelligence watchdog warned on Monday.
Lawmakers on the Intelligence and Security Committee — which has access to
classified briefings as part of its work overseeing Britain’s intelligence
services — said they are “concerned” by apparent inaction over whether to
designate Beijing as a top-level threat when it comes to influencing Britain.
Ministers have been under pressure to put China on the “enhanced tier” of
Britain’s Foreign Influence Registration Scheme — a tool to protect the economy
and society from covert hostile activity.
Both Iran and Russia have been placed on the top tier, which adds a new layer of
restrictions and accountability to their activities in Britain.
The government has so far resisted calls to add China to that list, even though
Beijing has been accused of conducting state-threat activities in the U.K. such
as industrial espionage, cyber-attacks and spying on politicians.
In its annual report the Committee said British intelligence agency MI5 had
previously told them that measures like the registration scheme would “have
proportionately more effect against … Chinese activity.”
The Committee said “hostile activity by Russian, Iranian and Chinese
state-linked actors is multi-faceted and complex,” adding that the threat of
“state-sponsored assassination, attacks and abductions” of perceived dissidents
has “remained at a higher level than we have seen in previous years.”
It added that while there are “a number of difficult trade-offs involved” when
dealing with Beijing, it has “previously found that the Government has been
reluctant to prioritise security considerations when it comes to China.”
“The Government should swiftly come to a decision on whether to add China to the
Enhanced Tier of the [Foreign Influence Registration Scheme],” the Committee
said, demanding that it be provided a “full account” to “ensure that security
concerns have not been overlooked in favour of economic considerations.”
The pressure comes as U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer prepares to visit China
in January — the first British leader to visit the country since Theresa May in
2018.
A government spokesperson said: “National security is the first duty of this
government. We value the [Intelligence and Security Committee]’s independent
oversight and the thoroughness of their scrutiny.
“This report underscores the vital, complex work our agencies undertake daily to
protect the UK.
“This Government is taking a consistent, long term and strategic approach to
managing the UK’s relations with China, rooted in UK and global interests. We
will cooperate where we can and challenge where we must.”
Tag - Espionage
LONDON — On the face of it, the new MI6 chief’s first speech featured many of
the same villains and heroes as those of her predecessors.
But in her first public outing Monday, Blaise Metreweli, the first female head
of the U.K.’s foreign intelligence service, sent a strong signal that she
intends to put her own stamp on the role – as she highlighted a wave of
inter-connected threats to western democracies.
Speaking at MI6’s HQ in London, Metreweli, who took over from Richard Moore in
October, highlighted a confluence of geo-political and technological
disruptions, warning “the frontline is everywhere” and adding “we are now
operating in a space between peace and war.”
In a speech shot through with references to a shifting transatlantic order and
the growth of disinformation, Metreweli made noticeably scant reference to the
historically close relationship with the U.S. in intelligence gathering — the
mainstay of the U.K.’s intelligence compact for decades.
Instead, she highlighted that a “new bloc and identities are forming and
alliances reshaping.” That will be widely seen to reflect an official
acknowledgement that the second Donald Trump administration has necessitated a
shift in the security services towards cultivating more multilateral
relationships.
By comparison with a lengthy passage on the seriousness of the Russia threat to
Britain, China got away only with a light mention of its cyber attack tendencies
towards the U.K. — and was referred to more flatteringly as “a country where a
central transformation is taking place this century.”
Westminster hawks will note that Metreweli — who grew up in Hong Kong and so
knows the Chinese system close-up — walked gingerly around the risk of conflict
in the South China Sea and Beijing’s espionage activities targeting British
politicians – and even its royals. In a carefully-placed line, she reflected
that she was “going to break with tradition and won’t give you a global threat
tour.”
Moore, her predecessor, was known for that approach, which delighted those who
enjoyed a plain-speaking MI6 boss giving pithy analysis of global tensions and
their fallout, but frustrated some in the Foreign Office who believed the
affable Moore could be too unguarded in his comments on geo-politics.
The implicit suggestion from the new chief was that China needs to be handled
differently to the forthright engagement with “aggressive, expansionist and
revisionist” Russia.
The reasons may well lie in the aftermath of a bruising argument within
Whitehall about how to handle the recent case of two Britons who were arrested
for spying for China, and with a growth-boosting visit to Beijing by the prime
minister scheduled for 2026.
Sources in the service suggest the aim of the China strategy is to avoid
confrontation, the better to further intelligence-gathering and have a more
productive economic relationship with Beijing. More hardline interpreters of the
Secret Intelligence Service will raise eyebrows at her suggestion that the
“convening power” of the service would enable it to “ defuse tensions.”
But there was no doubt about Metreweli’s deep concern at the impacts of
social-media disinformation and distortion, in a framing which seemed just as
worried about U.S. tech titans as conventional state-run threats: “We are being
contested from battlefield to boardroom — and even our brains — as
disinformation manipulates our understanding of each other.”
Declaring that “some algorithms become as powerful as states,” seemed to tilt
at outfits like Elon Musk’s X and Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta-owned Facebook.
Metreweli warned that “hyper personalized tools could become a new vector for
conflict and control,” pushing their effects on societies and individuals in
“minutes not months – my service must operate in this new context too.”
The new boss used the possessive pronoun, talking about “my service” in her
speech several times – another sign that she intends to put a distinctive mark
of the job, now that she has, at the age of just 48, inherited the famous
green-ink pen in which the head of the service signs correspondence.
Metreweli is experienced operator in war zones including Iraq who spent a
secondment with MI5, the domestic intelligence service, and won the job in large
part because of her experience in the top job via MI6’s science and technology
“Q” Branch. She clearly wants to expedite changes in the service – saying
agents must be as fluent in computer coding as foreign languages. She is also
expected to try and address a tendency in the service to harvest information,
without a clear focus on the action that should follow – the product of a glut
of intelligence gathered via digital means and AI.
She was keen to stress that the human factor is at the heart of it all — an
attempt at reassurance for spies and analysts wondering if they might be
replaced by AI agents as the job of gathering intelligence in the era of facial
recognition and biometrics gets harder.
Armed with a steely gaze Metreweli speaks fluent human, occasionally with a
small smile. She is also the first incumbent of the job to wear a very large
costume jewelry beetle brooch on her sombre navy attire. No small amount of
attention in Moscow and Beijing could go into decoding that.
DUBLIN — Neutral and poorly armed Ireland — long viewed as “Europe’s blind spot”
— announced Thursday it will spend €1.7 billion on improved military equipment,
capabilities and facilities to deter drones and potential Russian sabotage of
undersea cables.
The five-year plan, published as Defense Minister Helen McEntee visited the
Curragh army base near Dublin, aims in part to reassure European allies that
their leaders will be safe from attack when Ireland — a non-NATO member largely
dependent on neighboring Britain for its security — hosts key EU summits in the
second half of next year.
McEntee said Ireland intends to buy and deploy €19 million in counter-drone
technology “as soon as possible, not least because of the upcoming European
presidency.”
Ireland’s higher military spending — representing a 55 percent increase from
previous commitments — comes barely a week after a visit by Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy exposed Ireland’s inability to secure its own seas and
skies.
Five unmarked drones buzzed an Irish naval vessel supposed to be guarding the
flight path of Zelenskyy’s plane shortly after the Ukrainian leader touched down
at Dublin Airport. The Irish ship didn’t fire at the drones, which eventually
disappeared. Irish authorities have been unable to identify their source, but
suspect that they were operated from an unidentified ship later spotted in
European Space Agency satellite footage. The Russian embassy in Dublin denied
any involvement.
Ireland’s navy has just eight ships, but sufficient crews to operate only two at
a time, even though the country has vast territorial waters containing critical
undersea infrastructure and pipelines that supply three-fourths of Ireland’s
natural gas. The country has no fighter jets and no military-grade radar and
sonar.
Some but not all of those critical gaps will be plugged by 2028, McEntee
pledged.
She said Ireland would roll out military-grade radar starting next year, buy
sonar systems for the navy, and acquire up to a dozen helicopters, including
four already ordered from Airbus. The army would upgrade its Swiss-made fleet of
80 Piranha III armored vehicles and develop drone and anti-drone units. The air
force’s fixed-wing aircraft will be replaced by 2030 — probably by what would be
Ireland’s first wing of combat fighters.
Thursday’s announcement coincided with publication of an independent assessment
of Ireland’s rising security vulnerabilities on land, sea and air.
The report, coauthored by the Dublin-based think tank IIEA and analysts at
Deloitte, found that U.S. multinationals operating in Ireland were at risk of
cyberattacks and espionage by Russian, Chinese and Indian intelligence agents
operating in the country.
Denmark’s military intelligence service has for the first time classified the
U.S. as a security risk, a striking shift in how one of Washington’s closest
European allies assesses the transatlantic relationship.
In its 2025 intelligence outlook published Wednesday, the Danish Defense
Intelligence Service warned that the U.S. is increasingly prioritizing its own
interests and “using its economic and technological strength as a tool of
power,” including toward allies and partners.
“The United States uses economic power, including in the form of threats of high
tariffs, to enforce its will and no longer excludes the use of military force,
even against allies,” it said, in a pointed reference to Washington trying to
wrest control of Greenland from Denmark.
The assessment is one of the strongest warnings about the U.S. to come from a
European intelligence service. In October, the Dutch spies said they had stopped
sharing some intelligence with their U.S. counterparts, citing political
interference and human rights concerns.
The Danish warning underscores European unease as Washington leverages
industrial policy more aggressively on the global stage, and highlights the
widening divide between the allies, with the U.S. National Security Strategy
stating that Europe will face the “prospect of civilizational erasure” within
the next 20 years.
The Danish report also said that “there is uncertainty about how China-U.S.
relations will develop in the coming years” as Beijing’s rapid rise has eroded
the U.S.’s long-held position as the undisputed global power.
Washington and Beijing are now locked in a contest for influence, alliances and
critical resources, which has meant the U.S. has “significantly prioritized” the
geographical area around it — including the Arctic — to reduce China’s
influence.
“The USA’s increasingly strong focus on the Pacific Ocean is also creating
uncertainty about the country’s role as the primary guarantor of security in
Europe,” the report said. “The USA’s changed policy places great demands on
armaments and cooperation between European countries to strengthen deterrence
against Russia.”
In the worst-case scenario, the Danish intelligence services predict that
Western countries could find themselves in a situation in a few years where both
Russia and China are ready to fight their own regional wars in the Baltic Sea
region and the Taiwan Strait, respectively.
BERLIN — Germany will launch a new federal counter-drone unit as concerns mount
over a surge of suspicious drones overflying military sites and critical
infrastructure, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said Tuesday.
The formation will be part of the federal police’s national special operations
arm, and will be trained and certified specifically for drone detection and
neutralization, Dobrindt said at an event outside Berlin.
The unit will eventually grow to 130 officers, deployed across Germany and moved
quickly to hot spots when needed.
Germany has over €100 million budgeted this year and next for counter-drone
technology, the minister said. The systems include sensors and jammers designed
to disrupt hostile drone signals, with the capability to intercept or shoot them
down if necessary.
“It is an important signal that we are confronting hybrid threats,” Dobrindt
said. “We are creating a clear mission to detect, intercept and, yes, also shoot
down drones when necessary. We cannot accept that hybrid threats, including
drones, become a danger to our security.”
Dobrindt said Germany will procure systems from both German and Israeli
manufacturers, with further purchases expected in the coming months.
This week, Germany’s state interior ministers are also due to decide whether to
establish a joint federal-state counter-drone center, bringing together federal
and state police forces and the military to coordinate detection and response.
Berlin’s new unit marks its most significant move so far toward a standing
national counter-drone capability. German security agencies have tracked
hundreds of suspicious drone flyovers this year, including near barracks, naval
facilities and critical infrastructure.
Officials warn that small, commercially available drones are increasingly
deployed in Europe for espionage, probing defenses and hybrid operations. Some
European governments have pointed the finger of blame at Russia, but so far
proof is lacking.
Airports across Europe have also been forced to close thanks to overflying
drones. Last month, the U.K., France and Germany sent staff and equipment to
help Belgium counter drone incursions around sensitive facilities.
Many countries are trying to figure out how to deal with the drones in a safe
and legal way, as shooting them down could endanger people on the ground.
BRUSSELS — European Parliament members this week rubbished the EU executive’s
Democracy Shield plan, an initiative aimed at bolstering the bloc’s defenses
against Russian sabotage, election meddling and cyber and disinformation
campaigns.
The Commission’s plan “feels more like a European neighborhood watch group
chat,” Kim van Sparrentak, a Dutch member of the Greens group, told a committee
meeting on Monday evening.
On Tuesday, EU Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath faced the brunt of that
censure before the full Parliament plenary, as centrist and left-leaning
lawmakers panned the plan for its weaknesses and far-right members warned that
Brussels is rolling out a propaganda machine of its own.
“We want to see more reform, more drive and more actions,” Swedish center-right
lawmaker Tomas Tobé, who leads the Parliament’s report on the matter, told
McGrath.
The European Democracy Shield was unveiled Nov. 12 as a response to Russia’s
escalating meddling in the bloc. In past months, Europe has been awash in hybrid
threats. Security services linked railway disruptions in Poland and the Baltics
to Russian-linked saboteurs, while unexplained drone flyovers have crippled
public services in Belgium and probed critical infrastructure sites across the
Nordics.
At the same time, pro-Kremlin influence campaigns have promoted deepfake videos
and fabricated scandals and divisive narratives ahead of elections in Moldova,
Slovakia and across the EU, often using local intermediaries to mask their
origins.
Together these tactics inform a pressure campaign that European security
officials say is designed to exhaust institutions, undermine trust and stretch
Europe’s defenses.
The Democracy Shield was a key pledge President Ursula von der Leyen made last
year. But the actual strategy presented this month lacks teeth and concrete
actions, and badly fails to meet the challenge, opponents said.
While “full of new ways to exchange information,” the strategy presents “no
other truly new or effective proposals to actually take action,” said van
Sparrentak, the Dutch Greens lawmaker.
EU RESPONSE A WORK IN PROGRESS
Much of the Shield’s text consists of calls to support existing initiatives or
proposed new ones to come later down the line.
One of the pillars of the initiative, a Democratic Resilience Center that would
pool information on hybrid warfare and interference, was announced by von der
Leyen in September but became a major sticking point during the drafting of the
Shield before its Nov. 12 unveiling.
The final proposal for the Center lacks teeth, critics said. Instead of an
independent agency, as the Parliament had wanted, it will be a forum for
exchanging information, two Commission officials told POLITICO.
The Center needs “a clear legal basis” and should be “independent” with “proper
funding,” Tobé said Tuesday.
Austrian liberal Helmut Brandstätter said in a comment to POLITICO that “some
aspects of the center are already embedded in the EEAS [the EU’s diplomatic
service] and other institutions. Instead of duplicating them, we should strive
to consolidate and streamline our tools.”
EU countries also have to opt into participating in the center, creating a risk
that national authorities neglect its work.
RIGHT BLASTS EU ‘CENSORSHIP’
For right-wing and far-right forces, the Shield reflects what they see as EU
censorship and meddling by Brussels in European national politics.
“The stated goals of the Democracy Shield look good on paper but we all know
that behind these noble goals, what you actually want is to build a political
machinery without an electoral mandate,” said Csaba Dömötör, a Hungarian MEP
from the far-right Patriots group.
“You cannot appropriate the powers and competence of sovereign countries and
create a tool which is going to allow you to have an influence on the decisions
of elections” in individual EU countries, said Polish hard-right MEP Beata
Szydło.
Those arguments echo some of the criticisms by the United States’ MAGA movement
of European social media regulation, which figures like Vice President JD Vance
have previously compared to Soviet-era censorship laws.
The Democracy Shield strategy includes attempts to support European media
organizations and fact-checking to stem the flood of disinformation around
political issues.
Romanian right-wing MEP Claudiu-Richard Târziu said her country’s 2024
presidential elections had been cancelled due to “an alleged foreign
intervention” that remained unproven.
“This Democracy Shield should not create a mechanism whereby other member states
could go through what Romania experienced in 2024 — this is an attack against
democracy — and eventually the voters will have zero confidence,” he said.
In a closing statement on Tuesday at the plenary, Commissioner McGrath defended
the Democracy Shield from its hard-right critics but did not respond to more
specific criticisms of the proposal.
“To those who question the Shield and who say it’s about censorship. What I say
to you is that I and my colleagues in the European Commission will be the very
first people to defend your right to level robust debate in a public forum,” he
said.
Two of the world’s most prolific state-linked cybercrime groups — Russia’s
Gamaredon and North Korea’s Lazarus collective — have been spotted sharing
resources, new research showed on Thursday.
Experts at cybersecurity firm Gen Digital found overlapping tactics and shared
infrastructure between the two groups.
The discovery is “unprecedented,” said Director of Threat Intelligence at Gen
Digital Michal Salat. “I don’t recall two countries working together on
[Advanced Persistent Threat] attacks,” he said, referring to attacks that are
sophisticated, long-term campaigns often conducted by nation-state actors.
If confirmed, it would mark a new level of coordination between Moscow and
Pyongyang.
The Gamaredon cybercrime group is linked to Russia’s Federal Security Service
and has aggressively targeted Ukrainian government networks since the start of
the invasion in 2022, mostly for intelligence collection. Lazarus, a well-known
North Korean threat group, conducts everything from espionage to financially
motivated cybercrime.
While tracking Gamaredon’s use of Telegram channels to share the servers
controlling its malware, analysts discovered that one of those servers was also
being used by Lazarus.
One Gamaredon-run server was also found hosting a hidden version of malware
linked to Lazarus. The file closely matched Lazarus’ typical tools. Nation-state
hacking groups rarely host or distribute one another’s malware.
Researchers believe the findings indicate the two groups are likely sharing
systems, and could very well be cooperating directly. At a minimum, it shows
that one group is deliberately imitating the other.
Salat added that Gamaredon may be studying Lazarus’ methods, too. Lazarus is
known for using fake job offers to trick victims and for stealing
cryptocurrency, a key revenue source for North Korea, which is under heavy
global sanctions.
Moscow and Pyongyang have increased cooperation, including among their
militaries, in previous years. Western security services believe Pyongyang has
sent thousands of North Korean soldiers to Russia to support the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian authorities last month said North Korean troops were flying drones
across the border, and Ukrainian military intelligence said last week North
Korea would send thousands of workers to Russia to manufacture drones.
WARSAW — Saboteurs who damaged a small section of a rail line linking the Polish
capital to the eastern city of Lublin and on to Ukraine were two Ukrainians
working for Russia, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Polish parliament
Tuesday.
Train traffic along the busy route was halted Sunday morning after a high-speed
Intercity train driver spotted damage to the line, warning nearby trains. “The
outcome could have been a serious disaster with victims,” Tusk told MPs.
The perpetrators are two Ukrainian nationals “who have been operating and
cooperating with Russian services for a prolonged period of time,” the Polish
leader said. They had left their country for Belarus, from where they arrived in
Poland shortly before carrying out the attack on the rail line. Both returned to
Belarus before Polish services identified them.
Tusk said one of the suspects had a track record of being involved in acts of
sabotage in Ukraine. The other, he added, was a resident of the eastern
Ukrainian region of Donbas.
“Polish security services and prosecutors have all personal data of these
individuals, as well as recorded images of them,” Tusk said, adding Poland will
ask Belarusian and Russian authorities to hand over the suspects to face trial.
The Warsaw-Lublin train route that was attacked is one of country’s busiest,
linking the capital to the biggest city in eastern Poland and on toward
Ukraine.
Tusk described the two attempts at sabotaging the line. “The first involved
placing a steel clamp on the track, with a likely intention to derail a train.
The incident was meant to be recorded by a mobile phone with a power bank that
had been set up near the tracks. That attempt proved entirely unsuccessful.
“[In] the second incident … a military-grade C-4 explosive was detonated using
an initiating device connected by a 300-meter electrical cable.”
Tusk also said that the government will introduce a higher degree of security
alert, known as “Charlie,” along selected rail lines. A lower security alert,
“Bravo,” remains in place for the rest of the country.
Since Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has been
on high alert for cases of foreign espionage and sabotage, and has arrested
multiple people on those grounds.
Last month, two Ukrainian nationals were detained on suspicion of spying for a
foreign intelligence service. Other recent incidents include an alleged
Belarusian refugee accused by authorities of being a Russian operative, a fire
set in a shopping mall near Warsaw and an alleged attempt to sabotage a railway
station in southern Poland by leaving an unmarked railcar on tracks used by
passenger trains.
“The adversary has begun preparations for war,” the Polish chief of the general
staff, Gen. Wiesław Kukuła, told Polish Radio Monday.
“It is building a certain environment here that is intended to undermine public
trust in the government and institutions such as the armed forces and the
police. This is to create conditions conducive to potential aggression on Polish
territory,” Kukuła said.
LONDON — British lawmakers are being actively targeted by agents of the Chinese
state with lucrative job offers on LinkedIn, according to the U.K.’s
intelligence services.
House of Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle on Tuesday circulated an espionage alert
from security agency MI5, which warned that two “recruitment head-hunters” are
“known to be using” profiles on the career-focused social network “to conduct
outreach at scale” for the Chinese security services.
“Their aim is to collect information and lay the groundwork for long-term
relationships, using professional networking sites, recruitment agents and
consultants acting on their behalf,” the message from Hoyle to MPs — which
mirrors one issued by his counterpart in the House of Lords — says.
Speaking in the Commons on Tuesday, U.K. Security Minister Dan Jarvis said the
latest assessment showed how China “is attempting to recruit and cultivate
individuals with access to sensitive information about parliament and the U.K.
government.”
He said such work is being carried by a group of Chinese intelligence officers
“often masked through the use of cover companies or external headhunters.”
“China has a low threshold for what information is considered to be of value,
and will gather individual pieces of information to build a wider picture,” he
warned in a House of Commons statement.
In a bid to get on the front foot over the issue, Jarvis on Tuesday announced a
new “counter political interference and espionage action plan.” Measures include
tougher risk assessment rules for recipients of donations, and enhanced
enforcement powers for the Electoral Commission, the U.K.’s elections watchdog.
Security campaigns led by the U.K. parliamentary authorities will also take
place, including tailored briefings for Britain’s devolved governments,
political parties, and all candidates taking part in devolved and local
elections next May.
“This activity involves a covert and calculated attempt by a foreign power to
interfere with our sovereign affairs in favor of its own interests, and this
government will not tolerate it,” Jarvis warned.
The guidance follows a bitter political row in the U.K. over Chinese
interference in British politics.
British prosecutors this year dropped charges against two men accused of spying
for China, one of whom previously worked in parliament. The Palace of
Westminster is also contemplating tightening parliamentary access for Chinese
visitors.
Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, the author of the
award-winning “Goodbye Globalization” and a regular columnist for POLITICO.
Over the past two years, state-linked Russian hackers have repeatedly attacked
Liverpool City Council — and it’s not because the Kremlin harbors a particular
dislike toward the port city in northern England.
Rather, these attacks are part of a strategy to hit cities, governments and
businesses with large financial losses, and they strike far beyond cyberspace.
In the Gulf of Finland, for example, the damage caused to undersea cables by the
Eagle S shadow vessel in December incurred costs adding up to tens of millions
of euros — and that’s just one incident.
Russia has attacked shopping malls, airports, logistics companies and airlines,
and these disruptions have all had one thing in common: They have a great cost
to the targeted companies and their insurers.
One can’t help but feel sorry for Liverpool City Council. In addition to looking
after the city’s half-million or so residents, it also has to keep fighting
Russia’s cyber gangs who, according to a recent report, have been attacking
ceaselessly: “We have experienced many attacks from this group and their allies
using their Distributed Botnet over the last two years,” the report noted,
referring to the hacktivist group NoName057(16), which has been linked to the
Russian state.
“[Denial of Service attacks] for monetary or political reasons is a widespread
risk for any company with a web presence or that relies on internet-based
systems.”
Indeed. Over the past decades, state-linked Russian hackers have targeted all
manner of European municipalities, government agencies and businesses. This
includes the 2017 NotPetya attack, which brought down “four hospitals in Kiev
alone, six power companies, two airports, more than 22 Ukrainian banks, ATMs and
card payment systems in retailers and transport, and practically every federal
agency,” as well as a string of multinationals, causing staggering losses of
around $10 billion.
More recently, Russia has taken to targeting organizations and businesses in
other ways as well. There have been arson attacks, including one involving
Poland’s largest shopping mall that Prime Minister Donald Tusk subsequently said
was definitively “ordered by Russian special services.” There have been parcel
bombs delivered to DHL; fast-growing drone activity reported around European
defense manufacturing facilities; and a string of suspicious incidents damaging
or severing undersea cables and even a pipeline.
The costly list goes on: Due to drone incursions into restricted airspace,
Danish and German airports have been forced to temporarily close, diverting or
cancelling dozens of flights. Russia’s GPS jamming and spoofing are affecting a
large percentage of commercial flights all around the Baltic Sea. In the Red
Sea, Houthi attacks are causing most ships owned by or flagged in Western
countries to redirect along the much longer Cape of Good Hope route, which adds
costs. The Houthis are not Russia, but Russia (and China) could easily aid
Western efforts to stop these attacks — yet they don’t. They simply enjoy the
enormous privilege of having their vessels sail through unassailed.
The organizations and companies hit by Russia have so far managed to avert
calamitous harm. But these attacks are so dangerous and reckless that people
will, sooner or later, lose their lives.
There have been arson attacks, including one involving Poland’s largest shopping
mall that Prime Minister Donald Tusk subsequently said was definitively “ordered
by Russian special services.” | Aleksander Kalka/Getty Images
What’s more, their targets will continue losing a lot of money. The repairs of a
subsea data cable alone typically costs up to a couple million euros. The owners
of EstLink 2 — the undersea power cable hit by the Eagle S— incurred losses of
nearly €60 million. Closing an airport for several hours is also incredibly
expensive, as is cancelling or diverting flights.
To be sure, most companies have insurance to cover them against cyber attacks or
similar harm, but insurance is only viable if the harm is occasional. If it
becomes systematic, underwriters can no longer afford to take on the risk — or
they have to significantly increase their premiums. And there’s the kicker: An
interested actor can make disruption systematic.
That is, in fact, what Russia is doing. It is draining our resources, making it
increasingly costly to be a business based in a Western country, or even a city
council or government authority, for that matter.
This is terrifying — and not just for the companies that may be hit. But while
Russia appears far beyond the reach of any possible efforts to convince it to
listen to its better angels, we can still put up a steely front. The armed
forces put up the literal steel, of course, but businesses and civilian
organizations can practice and prepare for any attacks that Russia, or other
hostile countries, could decide to launch against them.
Such preparation would limit the possible harm such attacks can lead to. It begs
the question, if an attack causes minimal disruption, then what’s the point of
instigating it in the first place?
That’s why government-led gray-zone exercises that involve the private sector
are so important. I’ve been proposing them for several years now, and for every
month that passes, they become even more essential.
Like the military, we shouldn’t just conduct these exercises — we should tell
the whole world we’re doing so too. Demonstrating we’re ready could help
dissuade sinister actors who believe they can empty our coffers. And it has a
side benefit too: It helps companies show their customers and investors that
they can, indeed, weather whatever Russia may dream up.