BRUSSELS — The EU’s 27 member countries are set to back a push to send more naval ships to the Middle East as conflict paralyzes shipping routes, but will insist on them operating strictly within the parameters of missions that predate the war in Iran. Presidents and prime ministers from across the bloc will meet in Brussels Thursday to discuss their response to the Iran crisis. In a draft statement being negotiated by ambassadors in advance of the talks — seen by POLITICO — the leaders show support for an increased naval presence in the region. “The European Council highlights the role of the EU maritime defensive operations EUNAVFOR ASPIDES and EUNAVFOR ATALANTA, and calls for their reinforcement with more assets,” reads the latest version of the text, dated March 17. However, the text introduces new language demanding that the vessels take part in the missions only “in line with their respective mandates.” The EU-led Aspides is confined to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and was launched in 2024 in response to Houthi militant attacks on naval traffic travelling to and from Europe via the Suez Canal. Atalanta, meanwhile, patrols the east coast of Africa and the Indian Ocean to combat piracy. The Trump administration has urged European allies to send frigates to escort naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices have skyrocketed as a result of tankers being unable to cross the narrow waterway, which links oil- and gas-rich exporters like Saudi Arabia and Qatar to the global market. “I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Strait?’ That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday. Ahead of the EU summit, a group of countries — Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus — have written to the bloc’s leadership warning of another potential maritime crisis caused by the Russian liquefied natural gas carrier Arctic Metagaz, which has been adrift in the Mediterranean since March 3. “The precarious condition of the vessel, combined with the nature of its specialised cargo, gives rise to an imminent and serious risk of a major ecological disaster in the heart of the Union’s maritime space,” the leaders of the coastal nations warned. “In this context, we look to the European Commission to facilitate the mobilisation and coordination of Member States and existing EU-level mechanisms, with the goal of ensuring their more efficient, better coordinated and faster response.”

OSLO — Norway is doubling down on its role as Europe’s energy lifeline as wars and geopolitical turmoil rattle global markets. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said the widening conflict in the Middle East, which has already pushed oil prices higher and reduced supply, underscores why Europe needs stable energy partners. “It’s a war that appears to have no plan,” Støre said at the Offshore Norge Annual Conference in Oslo on Thursday, referring to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. “In such unpredictable times, Norway needs to be reliable.” Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Norway has become Europe’s largest pipeline gas supplier, replacing much of the fuel that once flowed from Russia. “All the gas we produce in Norway goes to Europe, and around 90 to 95 percent of oil we produce goes to Europe,” Anders Opedal, chief executive of Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor, told POLITICO. But while Oslo is positioning itself as a pillar of Europe’s energy security, Norwegian officials say the country cannot quickly ramp up production even if geopolitical tensions tighten global supply. Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland said his country is already operating close to maximum output. “We are at the top of production capacity just now,” he told POLITICO. Increasing supply would require new exploration and investment, Aasland said, as his government works to slow an expected decline in production after 2030 by developing additional resources on the Norwegian continental shelf. “Our focus is to be a stable and long and predictable supplier of energy to the European market,” he said. ARCTIC TENSIONS At the same time, Norway is pushing back against calls in Brussels to halt oil and gas development in the Arctic as the EU revises its Arctic strategy. The EU’s current policy commits the bloc to pursuing an international moratorium on Arctic oil and gas extraction, but the strategy is now under review, with a public consultation closing March 16 and a revised version expected before the summer. Norwegian officials, industry groups and unions are lobbying Brussels to drop the idea, arguing Europe will continue to need Norwegian Arctic gas as it phases out Russian supplies. Aasland defended Norway’s record in the region, pointing to the Barents Sea — where the country launched the Johan Castberg oil field last August — as an example of responsible development. “We have delivered oil and gas to the European market from the Arctic for several decades,” he said. “And we will develop it.” Industry leaders say Arctic production already plays a role in replacing Russian supplies. “When we opened the Johan Castberg field last year, the first cargo went straight to Europe, replacing Russian oil,” Opedal said. “Any moratorium here would actually reduce Europe’s security of supply.” Norway supplies roughly a third of EU gas imports, though Arctic gas accounts for a much smaller share, around 3 percent of the bloc’s imports. Still, Norwegian leaders argue a moratorium would send the wrong signal while Europe remains dependent on external energy supplies. Norwegian officials, industry groups and unions are lobbying Brussels to drop the idea, arguing Europe will continue to need Norwegian Arctic gas as it phases out Russian supplies. | Soeren Stache/picture alliance via Getty Images Ine Eriksen Søreide, the leader of Norway’s Conservative party, said calls to stop Arctic development clash with Europe’s current energy security priorities. “It sends a very bad signal when the Commission says we need to stop oil and gas development in the Arctic, because that’s development the EU relies on,” she said. Experts say the broader Arctic energy picture is dominated by Russia, which has major plans to expand liquefied natural gas production through projects such as Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2. Malte Humpert, founder and senior fellow at the Arctic Institute, said climate change is rapidly transforming the once-inaccessible region. “If we didn’t have climate change, we wouldn’t be talking about Arctic geopolitics,” he told POLITICO. “Climate change is actively reshaping the map, where suddenly there’s new trade routes available that didn’t exist even 10, 15 years ago.” OIL AND GAS AREN’T GOING ANYWHERE FOR NOW Across Oslo’s political spectrum, the message is broadly the same: Europe still needs reliable fossil fuel suppliers, and Norway intends to remain one of them. Opposition leader Sylvi Listhaug of the right-wing Progress Party argued Europe should encourage Norway to produce more oil and gas to reduce reliance on authoritarian regimes. “The more Norway can produce of gas, the less dependent Europe will be” on non-democratic producers, she said. Ine Eriksen Søreide, the leader of Norway’s Conservative party, said calls to stop Arctic development clash with Europe’s current energy security priorities. | Pool photo by Olivier Doulier/AFP via Getty Images Listhaug also warned that high energy prices risk undermining European competitiveness. “Energy and economic growth are a one-to-one relationship,” she said. Even as Norway expands renewables, leaders insist fossil fuels will remain crucial to Europe’s energy system during the long transition to cleaner alternatives. “We have to have two thoughts in our heads at the same time,” Aasland said.

The White House is considering waiving a century-old law that promotes the use of American vessels in maritime commerce, as the Trump administration faces rising fuel prices amid the ongoing war in Iran. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement that the administration may waive the Jones Act, a 1920 statute that requires cargo being moved by water between U.S. ports to be shipped on vessels that are built, owned and registered in the U.S. “In the interest of national defense, the White House is considering waiving the Jones Act for a limited period of time to ensure vital energy products and agricultural necessities are flowing freely to U.S. ports,” Leavitt said. “This action has not been finalized.” The development, which was first reported by Bloomberg News, comes as the White House faces growing political pressure over rising gas and oil prices, with Iran moving to choke off traffic in the critical Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S. and Israel’s ongoing war with the country. It also comes a day after the Trump administration announced it would release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, joining more than two dozen member countries in the International Energy Agency’s biggest emergency oil release in history. The war has triggered the largest supply disruption in global oil market history, according to a Thursday report from the IEA, sending crude oil prices soaring to over $100 a barrel before later retreating. The Homeland Security secretary and the Defense secretary can request a waiver in specific circumstances that are in the “interest of national defense.” The federal government has in the past chosen to freeze the law in extreme circumstances that led to substantial supply disruptions, including Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Maria. Trump administration officials have repeatedly said the rise in fuel prices is a small price to pay for the success of the war, with Leavitt saying Sunday the spike is “a short-term disruption for a long-term gain” during an interview on Fox News. The administration believes it can withstand the political pressure from a surge in prices for as long as a month, POLITICO previously reported. Suspending the Jones Act, however, could anger American-based shipbuilding and shipping interests. Since the White House is signaling the waiver will be temporary, the move, however, would likely not have a significant impact on the U.S.’s relatively small shipbuilding industry, but a waiver “would probably have a small but useful impact on prices,” said Peter Harrell, who served as the White House’s senior director for international economics under the Biden administration. Iran has warned that the war could send oil prices as high as $200 a barrel if the war rages on, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that was “unlikely” in a Thursday interview on CNN. Ari Hawkins contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran has Washington’s Asian allies scrambling to address an energy crisis that could destabilize many of their economies within weeks. And so far their appeals for guidance or assistance from the Trump administration are going unheeded. Asian countries are some of the most exposed to the energy crisis sparked by the Iran war because they rely heavily on oil and liquefied natural gas that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively ground to a halt since the first U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran two weeks ago. In that time, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea and others have struggled to decode Trump’s yo-yoing statements about the goals of the operation and when it will end, according to three Asian officials and one former U.S. official who were granted anonymity to discuss the tensions. “We’re not receiving any communication from the Trump administration,” said one of the people, a Washington-based Asia diplomat. Asked what the Trump administration could do, the person said, “Ideally, just end the conflict.” Another one of the officials from an Asian country pointed out that there are actions short of that that the U.S. could take to ease the pressure on energy markets, such as enlisting other countries to participate in its effort to guarantee insurance for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration has given no indication that it plans to take such actions. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday its member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks in the largest such reserves distribution in its history, but it’s unclear how much this will ease the pressure on Asian countries. Many Asian economies lack large domestic reserves and are thus particularly exposed to price spikes and supply disruptions. “Our oil reserves are enough for about one month of domestic consumption,” the Washington-based Asian diplomat said. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Washington’s attacks on Iran’s navy should assuage concerns about the safety of ships transiting the Strait, but that does not to appear to have done much to ease jitters. The second Asian official said some of Trump’s comments suggesting he is digging in for a long conflict are ratcheting up concern. His country’s alarm level will be dictated, “by how long this goes on,” the official said. Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. has hit a significant number of Iranian military targets and suggested the war could be over quickly. He has also said it could take four to six weeks, but has also called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” which could take much longer. Countries across the Indo-Pacific are taking measures to limit the impact of a looming cut in oil and gas from the Persian Gulf if supplies don’t resume in the next two weeks. The Philippines and Vietnam have revived Covid-era work-from-home directives to ease consumer demand for gasoline. India has imposed a 20 percent cut in LNG supply to the country’s industrial sector, New Delhi announced Wednesday. The Japanese government announced Wednesday it will release some of its strategic petroleum reserves to compensate for a shortfall in imports. The U.S. could see long term effects of leaving its Asian allies to fend on their own. “Foreign embassies need and expect information that explains what the U.S. is doing, reassurance that this is a short-term problem and what our plan is to help,” said Scot Marciel, former principal deputy assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs during the Obama administration. “Not doing that just adds to a pretty strong sense in the region that the administration is not really making a lot of effort to be a good partner.” The White House said allies will ultimately benefit from what is a temporary disruption. “President Trump has been clear that these are short-term disruptions,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said. “President Trump is in close contact with our partners around the world, and the terrorist Iranian regime’s attacks on its neighbors prove how imperative it was that President Trump eliminate this threat to our country and our allies.” The Trump administration has limited options to cushion the impact of the supply interruption on the economies of allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. An oil commodity trader at a major U.S. investment bank said America’s LNG production is already running at maximum and there is no emergency flex capacity that American producers can bring to bear to supply Asia. “There is no short term, immediate thing that the U.S. can do for Asia — there is no pipeline or trucking that can get more gas from here to there,” said the trader, who was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the issue. Last week the Trump administration said it would temporarily allow India to accept Russian oil. India, a larger refiner, also supplies petroleum products like gasoline and diesel fuel to other Asian countries. Asian countries are competing with each other as they try to pivot to other sources of oil and gas. The jockeying is hitting the wall of recent restrictions on output by regional refineries due to the lack of crude oil coming from the Persian Gulf. China could potentially wrangle a short-term easing in supply constraints in Asia if it taps its close ties with Tehran to ensure that China-bound cargoes pass through the Strait of Hormuz unmolested by Iranian forces. Those shipments may already be happening, according to CNBC reporting Tuesday. Trump has spent the past week attempting to cool nerves in the global energy market, as the price of oil has spiked by more than 29 percent since the U.S. and Israel first launched attacks on Iran. “I think you’re going to see great safety. We have decimated that country. They’re paying a big price now,” Trump said Wednesday, responding to a question about whether oil companies should transit the Strait. But Iran has continued to hit ships in the vital waterway. On Wednesday “unknown projectiles” hit and sparked a fire on a Thai cargo vessel in the Strait while two other ships were hit in the nearby Persian Gulf, the New York Times reported. The leaders of G7 countries — which includes Japan — agreed in a call on Wednesday to prepare for future freedom of navigation operations though such efforts are not possible now “as it remains an active theater of war,” according to a French account of the discussion. While the U.S. has been concerned that Iran has begun to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Wednesday the U.S. believes Iran hasn’t yet done so. He said the U.S. has hit 28 mine-laying ships. Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will have the chance to raise her concerns and others on the continent when she arrives in Washington next week for a summit with Trump that was planned before the war broke out but has taken on new meaning amid the turmoil. “The president made a decision on Iran without consulting allies, and they’re bearing the brunt of it. So the president obviously needs to appreciate the cost that Japan will bear” when he meets with Takaichi next week, Rahm Emanuel, former U.S. ambassador to Japan, said.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Zehn Tage vor der Landtagswahl in Rheinland-Pfalz läuft alles auf ein Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen hinaus. Gestern Abend trafen SPD-Amtsinhaber Alexander Schweizer und CDU-Herausforderer Gordon Schnieder im TV-Duell aufeinander. Während Schweizer auf den Amtsbonus setzt, kämpft Schnieder gegen das „Baden-Württemberg-Trauma“ der Union und versucht, sich von der schwächelnden Berliner Bundespolitik abzugrenzen. Rasmus Buchsteiner analysiert, wer im Studio die Oberhand behalten hat und welche Auswirkungen die Wahl am Ende auch für die Bundespolitik hat. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview mit Rixa Fürsen spricht die grüne Spitzenkandidatin Katrin Eder über das wahrscheinliche Regierung-Aus ihrer Partei. Anders als Cem Özdemir zuvor in Baden-Württemberg stagnieren die rheinland-pfälzischen Grünen in den Umfragen. Eder erklärt, warum sie trotz des Gegenwinds an einem klassischen grünen Profil festhält und wie sie den drohenden Machtverlust in einer möglichen schwarz-roten Zukunft verhindern will. Außenminister Johann Wadephul ist in Israel. Im Gepäck hat er eine ungewohnt deutliche Warnung von Kanzler Friedrich Merz: Deutschland sieht durch die aktuelle israelische Siedlungspolitik die Zwei-Staaten-Lösung in noch größerer Gefahr und damit womöglich bald eine rote Linie überschritten. Gemeinsam mit Hans von der Burchard ordnet Rixa ein, warum Berlin jetzt den Ton gegenüber dem Partner verschärft, welche Gefahr eine totale Destabilisierung des Irans für Europa bedeutet und was Wadephul für deutsche Bürger in der Region erreichen kann. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna **(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht von Amazon: Unabhängige Verkaufspartner stehen heute für über 60 % aller bei Amazon verkauften Produkte. Ein Beispiel ist Alphatrail aus Regensburg: Michael und sein Team haben ihre Leidenschaft in ein erfolgreich wachsendes Unternehmen verwandelt. Über Amazon bietet Alphatrail Radsport-Fans in ganz Europa erstklassige Ausrüstung und Zubehör. Sie sind eines von rund 47.000 deutschen kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen bei Amazon. Erfahren Sie mehr darüber auf AboutAmazon.de.**

BRUSSELS — The European Commission will on Wednesday announce plans to invest in EU regions bordering Russia, Belarus and Ukraine that are suffering economically because of the war. Dwindling investments, reduced cargo traffic and a decline in tourism have delivered an economic blow to the EU’s easternmost regions, chiefly affecting the Baltic countries, Finland and Poland. The Commission’s strategy attempts to give an incentive to international financial institutions to provide funding to those areas — but falls short of putting new money on the table. “The safest borders are not just controlled, they’re alive,” said Niina Ratilainen, a member of the Finnish city council of Turku and the European Committee of the Regions’ Working Group on Ukraine. “Investing in jobs, clean energy and education in EU border regions sets the foundation of real security.” The EU is concerned that if these easternmost regions depopulate, Europe’s ability to defend the border is compromised, said a Commission official granted anonymity to speak freely. Brussels is also worried that the economic woes suffered by those living in the regions could see them turn to fringe parties in elections and make them vulnerable to Russian propaganda. Władysław Ortyl, the governor of the Polish region of Podkarpackie, noted that his area is “directly affected by the consequences of the ongoing war, including migratory pressure, transport disruptions and increased strain on public services and the regional economy.” He added that “escalating geopolitical tensions” mean the EU should reallocate resources toward “strengthening resilience” of its border areas. A priority of the plan is to revitalize border areas that are economically depressed as a result of the Russian invasion, whether because of a lack of tourism or due to the dangers associated with living near the Ukrainian border. “Europe’s security begins at its Eastern frontier,” the Commission wrote in a draft of the plan, officially called the Communication on Eastern Border Regions, which was seen by POLITICO. “A strong, prosperous, and resilient Eastern border is essential to safeguard the entire continent.” Yet the strategy to be presented by Executive Vice President for Cohesion Raffaele Fitto contains no new money as the EU’s current budget, which expires in 2028, is overstretched, said two Commission officials. “What we need is direct access to EU funding and a strategy that reflects today’s realities on the ground,” said Milan Majerský, governor of the Prešov self-governing region in Slovakia. “In Eastern Slovakia, we feel the economic, social and security impacts of Russia’s war every day. Our GDP per capita is just over 54 percent of the EU average, and the war has deepened long-standing structural gaps.” Majerský said he met with Fitto in Bratislava last week ahead of the plan’s unveiling. Baltic countries have already set their sights on the EU’s next budget, which is currently being negotiated by member countries. They argue that the Commission’s plan will strengthen their demands to earmark money for the easternmost regions from 2028. “We do expect our specificities to be reflected in the negotiations” on the next EU long-term budget, Lithuania’s Europe Minister Sigitas Mitkus told POLITICO. “This communication [on eastern border regions] will be a living document.” Under Fitto’s plan, global financial institutions will be part of the “EastInvest platform,” which will immediately enter into force to “address investment needs” and provide financing aid to those regions, according to the document draft. A view of Kaliningrad from the Lithuanian town of Pagėgiai on July 10, 2023. | Omar Marques/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Brussels will allow countries bordering Russia and Belarus — Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — to use part of their EU regional development funds to offer guarantees to the European Investment Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Nordic Investment Bank and national promotional banks to invest in their easternmost regions, according to the document. The end goal is to offer cheap credit to businesses from regions that border Ukraine that would otherwise struggle to access funding. The door is open for other EU countries bordering Ukraine — including Romania, Hungary and Slovakia — to join at a later stage, one Commission official said. In a partial concession to Baltic countries, the Commission wrote that it will “explore the possibility of dedicated calls for EBRs (Eastern Border Regions) in the upcoming European Competitiveness Fund,” which is a €410 billion pot to support innovative EU businesses from 2028 onward. Such a change would be significant as the Commission previously dismissed calls to attach geographic criteria to the new fund.

Lufthansa announced today it expects a strike announced “at short notice” for Thursday to impact its flight schedule. The industrial action was called by the flight attendants’ union UFO and the pilots’ union Vereinigung Cockpit (VC), Lufthansa said. Cabin crew union UFO said the strike notice was introduced after “the management has refused to enter into negotiations with us at all” regarding working conditions and pensions. UFO members working for regional subsidiary airline Lufthansa CityLine will be affected by the airline’s announced closure; operations and staff are expected to be relocated to a new subsidiary. VC said that pilots from both Lufthansa’s passenger and cargo operations will join the 24-hour strike after “a total of seven rounds of negotiations remained without a tangible result.” “We would have liked to avoid an escalation,” said VC President Andreas Pinheiro, blaming Lufthansa for the strike. According to the German news agency DW, the strike could affect all German airports, including the major international hubs of Frankfurt and Munich. The strike could disrupt the travel plans of thousands of passengers, including those traveling to the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins Friday.

HELSINKI — The U.K. is ready to work with its European allies to intercept vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet,” Britain’s chief foreign minister said Wednesday. A week after British armed forces supported the U.S. seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic, Yvette Cooper said Britain is prepared to work on enforcement with “other countries and other allies” against ships suspected of carrying sanctioned oil or damaging undersea infrastructure. Promising “stronger action” to break the shadow fleet’s “chokehold,” she added: “It means a more robust response, and it means as we see operations by shadow fleet vessels, standing ready to be able to act.” While the foreign secretary would not be drawn on the specific action the U.K. might take, her charged rhetoric appears to be laying the ground for future interventions that go beyond last week’s coordination with the Trump administration. Officials believe that the U.K. government has identified a legal basis for the military to board shadow fleet vessels in international shipping lanes, in certain cases. Cooper did not rule out the prospect of British forces boarding vessels, telling POLITICO: “It means looking at whatever is appropriate, depending on the circumstances that we face.” She also did not rule out using oil from seized vessels to fund the Ukrainian war effort — but cautioned that the prospect was of a different order to using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. That idea hit a wall in discussions between EU countries in December. The foreign secretary said: “As you know, we’ve had all sorts of discussions in the past about different Russian sovereign assets. That’s a different set of circumstances. So we take the approach that it always has to be done within an international legal framework and on a case-by-case basis.” Asked directly if she was talking about joint shadow fleet operations with European allies, Cooper said: “We stand ready to work with allies on stronger enforcement around the shadow fleet.” Cooper made her comments on Wednesday after a demonstration on board the Finnish Border Guard ship Turva. It took part in a Dec. 31 operation to seize a cargo ship sailing from Russia to Israel, which was accused of deliberately damaging a cable between Helsinki and Estonia. Finnish authorities demonstrated a mock operation similar to the one that seized the ship on New Year’s Eve. Cooper watched as five armed officers slid down a rope from a helicopter onto the deck and stormed the bridge, shouting: “Hands up.” The operation took around three minutes. Cooper said after the demonstration: “The reason for being here is to see the work that Finland has been doing around the shadow fleet, and to look at what the further potential is for us to work with allies to strengthen that enforcement work.” Mari Rantanen, Finland’s interior minister, said the age of some Russian-linked tankers using northern shipping routes risks an ecologically disastrous oil spill. | Olivier Hoslet/EPA She name-checked work by France and Finland, while one U.K. official said she also intends to work with Norway. Mari Rantanen, Finland’s interior minister, said the age of some Russian-linked tankers using northern shipping routes risks an ecologically disastrous oil spill. “These vessels, these tankers, are very old,” she told POLITICO. “They are not built [for] this kind of icy weather, and they are in very bad shape, so the environmental risk is huge.” Mikko Simola, the commander of the Gulf of Finland coastguard, said he has seen “a rapid change since early 2022” in the prevalence of malign activity, for which Moscow denies responsibility. Simola said he would let the courts decide who was culpable, but said it was “certainly very strange to believe that in a short period of time, many cable and gas pipe damages would happen by accident in the same area.”

A cargo ship that sailed from Russia was detained in the Gulf of Finland on Wednesday following damage to an underwater data cable linking Finland and Estonia. “A ship that was in the area at the time of the cable damage between Helsinki and Tallinn has been diverted to Finnish waters,” Prime Minister Petteri Orpo posted on X. “The government is closely monitoring the situation.” The Fitburg, which was under the flag of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, had departed St. Petersburg, Russia on Dec. 30 and was en route to Israel with crew from Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Telecoms provider Elisa notified authorities at 5 a.m. of a cable break in Estonia’s exclusive economic zone, which extends 200 nautical miles from its coast. Hours later a Finnish patrol vessel caught the Fitburg with its anchor in the water in Finland’s exclusive economic zone, the country’s coast guard reported. “At the moment we suspect aggravated disruption of telecommunications and also aggravated sabotage and attempted aggravated sabotage,” Helsinki police chief Jari Liukku told media. “Finland is prepared for security challenges of various kinds, and we respond to them as necessary,” President Alexander Stubb said on X. Earlier this year the NATO military alliance launched its “Baltic Sentry” program to stop attacks against subsea energy and data cables in the Baltic Sea that have multiplied following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The sabotage has included the severing of an internet cable between Finland and Germany in November 2024 and another between Finland and Sweden the following month. A July study by the University of Washington found that 10 subsea cables in the Baltic Sea had been cut since 2022. “A majority of these incidents have raised suspicions of sabotage by state actors, specifically Russia and China, who have been particularly active in the region,” the study noted.

The message from Capitol Hill on both sides of the aisle is clear: Get ready for U.S. relations with China to spiral all over again in the new year. The one-year trade truce brokered in October between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is already looking shaky. And lawmakers are preparing to reup clashes over trade, Taiwan and cyber-intrusions when they return in January. “It’s like a heavyweight fight, and we’re in that short time period in-between rounds, but both sides need to be preparing for what is next after the truce,” Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a member of the House Select Committee on China, said in an interview. POLITICO talked to more than 25 lawmakers, including those on the House Select Committee on China, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s East Asia subcommittee and the Congressional Executive Commission on China, for their views on the durability of the trade treaty. Both Republicans and Democrats warned of turbulence ahead. More than 20 of the lawmakers said they doubt Xi will deliver on key pledges the White House said he made in October, including reducing the flow of precursor chemicals to Mexico that cartels process into fentanyl and buying agreed volumes of U.S. agricultural goods. “China can never be trusted. They’re always looking for an angle,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. That pessimism comes despite an easing in U.S.-China tensions since the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. The bruising cycle of tit-for-tat tariffs that briefly hit triple digits earlier this year is currently on pause. Both countries have relaxed export restrictions on essential items (rare earths for the U.S., chip design software for China), while Beijing has committed to “expanding agricultural product trade” in an apparent reference to the suspension of imports of U.S. agricultural products it imposed earlier this year. This trend may continue, given that Trump is likely to want stability in the U.S.-China relationship ahead of a summit with Xi planned for April in Beijing. “We’re starting to see some movement now on some of their tariff issues and the fentanyl precursor issue,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said. But a series of issues have been brushed aside in negotiations or left in limbo — a status quo the Trump administration can only maintain for so long. The U.S.-China trade deal on rare earths that Bessent said the two countries would finalize by Thanksgiving remains unsettled. And the White House hasn’t confirmed reporting from earlier this month that Beijing-based ByteDance has finalized the sale of the TikTok social media app ahead of the Jan. 23 deadline for that agreement. “The idea that we’re in a period of stability with Beijing is simply not accurate,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Shaheen has been sounding the alarm on China’s national security threats since she entered the Senate in 2009. But even some lawmakers who have been more open to engagement with Beijing — such as California Democratic Reps. Ro Khanna and Ami Bera — said that they don’t expect the armistice to last. The White House is more upbeat about the prospects for U.S.-China trade ties. “President Trump’s close relationship with President Xi is helping ensure that both countries are able to continue building on progress and continue resolving outstanding issues,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the administration “continues to monitor China’s compliance with our trade agreement.” It declined to comment on the TikTok deal. Still, the lawmakers POLITICO spoke with described four issues that could derail U.S.-China ties in the New Year: A SOYBEAN SPOILER U.S. soybean farmers’ reliance on the Chinese market gives Beijing a powerful non-tariff trade weapon — and China doesn’t appear to be following through on promises to renew purchases. The standoff over soybeans started in May, when China halted those purchases, raising the prospect of financial ruin across farming states including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana — key political constituencies for the GOP in the congressional midterm elections next year. The White House said last month that Xi committed to buying 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in November and December. But so far, Beijing has only purchased a fraction of that agreed total, NBC reported this month. “What agitates Trump and causes him to react quickly are things that are more domestic and closer to home,” Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) said. China’s foot-dragging on soybean purchases “is the most triggering because it’s hurting American farmers and consumers, so that’s where we could see the most volatility in the relationship,” she said. That trigger could come on Feb. 28 — the new deadline for that 12 million metric ton purchase, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced earlier this month. The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment on whether Beijing plans to meet this deadline. The White House said one of the aspects of the trade deal it is monitoring is soybean purchases through this growing season. THE TAIWAN TINDERBOX Beijing’s threats to invade Taiwan are another near-term potential flashpoint, even though the U.S. hasn’t prioritized the issue in its national security strategy or talks between Xi and Trump. China has increased its preparations for a Taiwan invasion this year. In October, the Chinese military debuted a new military barge system that addresses some of the challenges of landing on the island’s beaches by deploying a bridge for cargo ships to unload tanks or trucks directly onto the shore. “China is tightening the noose around the island,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who joined a bipartisan congressional delegation to China in September and returned calling for better communications between the U.S. and Chinese militaries. Some of the tension around Taiwan is playing out in the wider region, as Beijing pushes to expand its military reach and its influence. Chinese fighter jets locked radar — a prelude to opening fire — on Japanese aircraft earlier this month in the East China Sea. “There is a real chance that Xi overplays his hand on antagonizing our allies, particularly Australia and Japan,” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) said. “There is still a line [China] cannot cross without making this truce impossible to sustain.” The U.S. has a decades-long policy of “strategic ambiguity” under which it refuses to spell out how the U.S. would respond to Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Trump has also adhered to that policy. “You’ll find out if it happens,” Trump said in an interview with 60 Minutes in November. MORE EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON THE WAY Beijing has eased its export restrictions on rare earths — metallic elements essential to both civilian and military applications — but could reimpose those blocks at any time. Ten of the 25 lawmakers who spoke to POLITICO said they suspect Beijing will reimpose those export curbs as a convenient pressure point in the coming months. “At the center of the crack in the truce is China’s ability to levy export restrictions, especially its chokehold on the global supply of rare earths and other critical minerals,” Rep. André Carson (D-Ind.) said. Others are worried China will choose to expand its export controls to another product category for which it has market dominance — pharmaceuticals. Beijing supplies 80 percent of the U.S. supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients — the foundations of common drugs to treat everything from high blood pressure to type 2 diabetes. “Overnight, China could turn off the spigot and many basic pharmaceuticals, including things like aspirin, go away from the supply chain in the United States,” Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas) said. China restarted exports of rare earths earlier this month, and its Commerce Ministry pledged “timely approval” of such exports under a new licensing system, state media reported. Beijing has not indicated its intent to restrict the export of pharmaceuticals or their components as a trade weapon. But the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission urged the Food and Drug Administration to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese sources of pharmaceuticals in its annual report last month. The Chinese embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment. GROWING CHINESE MILITARY MUSCLE China’s drive to develop a world-class military that can challenge traditional U.S. dominion of the Indo-Pacific could also derail relations between Washington and Beijing in 2026. China’s expanding navy — which, at more than 200 warships, is now the world’s largest — is helping Beijing show off its power across the region. The centerpiece of that effort in 2025 has been the addition of a third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which entered into service last month. The Fujian is two-thirds the size of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. But like the Ford, it boasts state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapults to launch J-35 and J-15T fighter jets. The Trump administration sees that as a threat. The U.S. aims to insulate allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific from possible Chinese “sustained successful military aggression” powered by Beijing’s “historic military buildup,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month at the Reagan National Defense Forum. Five lawmakers said they see China’s increasingly aggressive regional military footprint as incompatible with U.S. efforts to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing in the months ahead. “We know the long-term goal of China is really economic and diplomatic and military domination around the world, and they see the United States as an adversary,” Moran said. Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.