BRUSSELS — The EU’s move to designate Iran’s feared paramilitary force as a terrorist organization was the product of a recalculation by several governments, in which the need to respond to Tehran’s brutal crackdown outweighed the diplomatic risks. For weeks, a group of influential EU capitals — led by France and, until recently, Italy and Spain — warned that a terror listing would close off what little diplomatic leverage Europe still had with Iran, risking reprisals against European nationals and complicating nuclear talks. That argument began to unravel as the regime’s internet blackout lifted and video footage circulated of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ violence against protesters. By Wednesday afternoon, the capitals championing the designation, among them Berlin, had managed to peel away Italy and Spain from France — with Paris loath to be out on its own. While “there was an internet ban everything was not clear,” said EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas when asked by POLITICO on Thursday what had changed capitals’ minds. But “when the atrocities were clear, then also it was clear there has to be a very strong response from the European side.” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola told POLITICO that after “seeing the appalling images emerging from Iran of the continued brutality of the regime … it was necessary for Europe to act.” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Paris had revised its view due to the “unwavering courage of the Iranians, who have been the target of this violence.” As other capitals got on board, “the pressure [on France] became too much,” a European Parliament official said. “They didn’t want to stand there like the only ones blocking this decision and supporting that regime … The shame of being the one to block this, the cost became too big.” DOMINOES FALLING Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel told POLITICO that the emergence of new video evidence of killings and violence from regime forces had crossed a “big line” for many EU countries. The Netherlands has been one of the key proponents of designating the Revolutionary Guard. Italy was the first to publicly declare it had changed camps, with Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Monday saying “the losses suffered by the civilian population during the protests require a clear response.” One EU diplomat from a country that had pushed for the listing in the lead-up to Thursday’s meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels said footage of parents looking for their children in body bags had been particularly “horrific” and “motivating,” along with reports of deaths in the tens of thousands. Early on Wednesday afternoon, Spain signaled its position had also shifted, with the foreign ministry telling POLITICO it supported the designation, which puts the Revolutionary Guard in the same category as al Qaeda, Hamas and Daesh. Paris was the last holdout. U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that “time is running out” for the regime. | Laurent Gillieron/EPA French officials had argued such a massive terror listing — the group has more than 100,000 personnel — would limit opportunities to talk about nuclear nonproliferation and other matters due to the fact that many of Europe’s interlocutors are tied to the sprawling Revolutionary Guards.  France, along with the U.K. and Germany, is also a member of the E3 group of nations that are holding nuclear talks with Iran. While the E3 recently activated snapback sanctions on Tehran over its failure to cooperate with inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Paris was still hoping for a diplomatic solution. For France, keeping the Revolutionary Guard off the EU terror list “maintained the possibility that the E3 could play a role if the negotiations on the nuclear program started again,” said a European diplomat.  But there was another reason preventing Paris from coming aboard. While French officials had avoided making the link between France’s stance and Iran’s use of hostage diplomacy, weighing on them were the fates of two of their nationals — Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris — who had recently been released from the notorious Evin Prison and are under house arrest at the French Embassy in Tehran. But lacking support from its allies to continue to resist the move, Paris dropped its opposition. France’s Barrot said the deaths of thousands of protesters could not “happen in vain.” The United States, which designated the Revolutionary Guard as a terror group in 2019, has also been pressing the EU to follow suit, with a French presidency official saying Paris had had “a very large number of exchanges with the Americans” on Iran.  U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that “time is running out” for the regime and that a “massive Armada” was “moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose” toward the country. Clea Caulcutt, Victor Goury-Laffont, Gabriel Gavin and Tim Ross contributed reporting.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart may be heading for bilateral talks on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin “expressed readiness to engage in dialogue” with Macron on the issue, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday, according to media reports. The Elysée responded positively. “It is welcome that the Kremlin has publicly agreed to this approach. We will decide in the coming days on the best way to proceed,” the French presidency said. Macron said at last week’s EU summit in Brussels that it would be “useful” for Europe to reach out to Putin to ensure that a peace deal in Ukraine is not negotiated solely by the United States, Russia and Ukraine. “I think that we Europeans and Ukrainians need to find a framework to engage a discussion in due form,” Macron told reporters as the summit wrapped up early Friday morning. The Elysée stressed that any talks with Russia would take place in “full transparency” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European allies, Le Monde reported. Macron and Putin have rarely been in direct contact since Moscow launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Their most recent phone communication was in July, following about three years of no contact.

PARIS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Paris on Monday for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, the Elysée Palace said. The two leaders will meet as Zelenskyy’s government is engulfed in a damaging corruption scandal over allegations that the president’s associates had plotted to skim around $100 million from Ukraine’s energy sector as the country’s citizens suffer from blackouts caused by Russian attacks against infrastructure. Macron and Zelenskyy will discuss issues relating to bilateral relations, energy, the economy and defense, according to the statement from the French presidency. The visit will also be an opportunity to “reaffirm France’s long-term commitment for Ukraine” and “maintain the drive for security guarantees” offered by the coalition of the willing led by the French and the British. The corruption scandal comes as Kyiv faces a budget crunch next year and is seeking to secure desperately needed funds from the European Union. Brussels wants to use Russian frozen assets as a “reparation loan” to Ukraine, but still needs to convince Belgium, where most of the assets are held. Presidential adviser Andriy Yermak said Zelenskyy was “not corrupt” and a”very principled person” in an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, to which POLITICO belongs. EU allies, however, want reassurances that Kyiv is doing what it can to tackle corruption. On Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin expects “Ukraine to press ahead with anti-corruption measures and reforms,” after a call with the Ukrainian president.

PARIS — A solitary President Emmanuel Macron was spotted walking and making calls beside the Seine River on Monday, as he weighed his crucial response to the chaos engulfing France after the shock resignation of his fifth government since reelection in 2022. Ever the political showman, Macron — pacing the flagstones of the quais in a dark navy overcoat — was also seen talking to passers-by, in images that contrast with the accusations that the former Rothschild banker is disconnected from ordinary people. The outing fits with his model of ostentatious displays at critical political moments. He took a stroll, then a boat trip on the Seine, when he resigned as economy minister in 2016 to launch his presidential bid. On the night of his election in 2017, he took a three-minute victory lap around the Louvre Museum, again in the dark overcoat preferred for moments of high-drama. After Lecornu’s resignation mere hours after his government was appointed, Macron has his back against the wall, as the crisis in the eurozone’s No. 2 economy is sapping confidence in both French markets and the euro. The appointment last month of a close ally as prime minister was seen as the last resort for the French president. If the ultimate Macron loyalist couldn’t secure a functioning government, make a deal with opposition parties on the budget, who could? Now the president faces an array of unappetizing options: appointing a new prime minister who will almost certainly fail, calling a snap election that will probably bring the far-right National Rally closer to power. Or something he said he would never do: resign. In a sign of the difficulties he faces, the French president seemed angry and appeared to snap at a close ally during a conversation Monday morning, according to this ally, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. The tension is at its peak. Lecornu walked out on Monday, when the newly reappointed interior minister (and head of the conservatives), Bruno Retailleau, said he wasn’t sure his party wanted to stay in government. The French president could now appoint a new prime minister, but anybody from the center-right, the left or even a technocrat would struggle to push a divided and hostile parliament to agree on a slimmed-down budget. Calling a parliamentary snap election could buy the president time, but polls show it would strengthen the far right. And less that two years before a presidential election, boosting the far right is hardly something the French president wants to add to his legacy. Elisa Bertholomey and Pauline de Saint Remy contributed reporting.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán may find support in unusual corners for his bid to stop Ukraine from joining the EU — including from French President Emmanuel Macron. Ahead of a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen Oct. 1, European Council President António Costa has been lobbying European leaders to find a way around Hungary’s opposition to Kyiv’s joining the bloc, among other stalled membership bids. As first reported by POLITICO on Monday, the Portuguese politician has offered to change EU rules to allow formal accession talks to begin following approval by a qualified majority of leaders, rather than by unanimous consent as is currently required. But Costa’s plan is proving controversial. While Orbán is the EU leader closest to President Vladimir Putin and most hostile to Ukraine, other leaders have very different motives to join his side — mainly to defend their veto power. The plan faces pushback from several EU countries, including France, the Netherlands and Greece, and is unlikely to get wide approval in Denmark, according to three EU diplomats and a French presidency official who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.  The concern among these countries is that by changing the accession rules, they would also be limiting their own ability to block membership bids they see as problematic, the same people said. That opens up a host of rivalries that Orbán can play upon: It’s important to the Greeks, for example, to show they can hold up talks on Turkey’s membership, just as Bulgarians want to be able to draw the line on North Macedonia, and Croats to block Serbia. Costa’s suggestion would open a path forward not just for Ukraine — whose bid has been held up for months due to Orbán’s veto — but also for Moldova, as the two countries’ candidacies are linked. According to a senior EU official, Costa’s proposal will be on the table in Copenhagen on Wednesday, along with another proposal to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. “No leader to this day replied with a total ‘no’ to this idea,” the senior official said, referring to Costa’s rule-change proposal. Finnish President Alexander Stubb told POLITICO that he backed any attempt to speed up the process. “Any decision-making mechanism which gives more flexibility and less possibility to block I personally welcome, and never more so than with Ukraine,” he said. But the camp opposing Costa and Stubb may prove too strong. And if the price of preserving the rules is that Ukraine and Moldova may have to wait months, if not years, to see their bids move forward, it’s one that these countries are willing to pay. “We’re not convinced at all by changing the rules of the game during the game, because that is what some are proposing,” said a senior EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. “If you do qualified majority voting [to push the accession process forward], there is a very big risk of the process being extremely politicized,” they added. Paris has also historically opposed Turkey’s accession to the bloc, with Emmanuel Macron telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as recently as 2018 there was no chance of Ankara’s bid advancing. | Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images An even greater challenge is that in order to change the rules, all 27 member countries including Hungary would have to be in agreement — a non-starter for these diplomats. “If we had to change or evolve on the decision-making process, that would also have to be decided via unanimity, which does not seem to be possible today,” said a French presidency official. PULLING FOR UKRAINE The push to streamline EU accession comes as top EU officials throw their weight behind the Ukrainian and Moldovan membership bids. Von der Leyen has repeatedly stated that Ukraine “belongs in the EU,” arguing that Kyiv could achieve full membership in the 27-member grouping by 2030 if it carries on with judicial and economic reforms. Kyiv has carried out judicial reforms and has had extensive talks with counterparts in Brussels, but legally speaking, negotiations have yet to begin. That’s because under the current rules, Hungary can block formal talks. Moldova is in the same boat. Chișinău’s bid to join the 27-member bloc — which President Maia Sandu placed at the heart of the campaign ahead of legislative elections this past Sunday — is tied to that of Ukraine, meaning it cannot advance as long as Kyiv’s candidacy remains blocked. The stalled process carries a price for both Sandu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as both tout future EU membership as an alternative to Russia’s sphere of influence. Costa’s initiative won backing this week from the European Commission, where officials privately say that the current process — which requires a unanimous vote at more than 100 stages — is too cumbersome. Costa’s idea is to introduce qualified majority voting at those interim stages so that progress can be made, even if a small number of countries are opposed. Final accession to the EU would still be impossible without unanimous approval. ORBÁN’S UNLIKELY ALLIES But that push is now running into opposition from leaders who see their membership veto as deeply tied up with national sovereignty. Take Greece, which has long opposed Turkey’s membership bid as a security threat. Athens relies on its veto as a way of guaranteeing that Ankara will never join the EU — even if Turkey’s bid is legally on hold. “On this proposal we are very cautious,” said a Greek official, referring to Costa’s rule-tweak proposal. Paris has also historically opposed Turkey’s accession to the bloc, with Macron telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as recently as 2018 there was no chance of Ankara’s bid advancing. The same goes for Bulgaria, which wants to be able to block North Macedonia’s entry into the bloc, or Croatia, which has historically opposed Serbia’s accession.  “Obviously the Hungarians are blocking the Ukrainians,” said the first EU diplomat. “But that’s not all. The Bulgarians want to be able to block the Macedonians, the Croats want to be able to control the Serbs, Greece and Cyprus don’t want Turkey to come any closer to the EU, and Greece also would want to keep an eye on Albania,” the diplomat added. In public, EU leaders may oppose Hungary’s blocking of Ukraine. But behind closed doors, many find it a convenient cover for their own demands. Tim Ross, Gregorio Sorgi and Gabriel Gavin contributed reporting.

PARIS — Russia likely wants to militarize space, while its undersea activity is also “extremely worrying,” a top French general said during a rare press conference Friday. Describing the Kremlin as “a lasting threat,” Chief of the Defense Staff Thierry Burkhard said Russian submarines “regularly enter the North Atlantic and then sometimes descend into the Mediterranean” in order to “monitor areas which are important [to France].” Burkhard also said Moscow’s satellites are being used to spy on or interfere with French equipment. He also pointed to “signs of a desire to militarize space” with specialized satellites “which would likely not be legal under the laws relating to the non-militarization of space.” During the first press conference held by the French chief of the defense staff since 2021, Burkhard aimed to outline the threats currently facing France ahead of a speech Sunday on defense by President Emmanuel Macron, which is expected to include major announcements. Beyond Russia, Burkhard also highlighted how tensions in other parts of the world — including the Middle East — are adding to an already demanding situation for French troops. He stressed that “unbridled use of force” and “getting used to violence” had become defining elements of the global landscape. While avoiding a direct call for increased military spending, Burkhard said that finding the best way to confront these challenges “probably comes at a cost.” France is looking to increase its military budget to €67.4 billion by 2030, from €50.5 billion for this year.