When Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attended her first European leaders’ summit in Brussels in December 2022, few would have expected her to become one of the most effective politicians sitting around the table four years later.   In fact, few would have expected that she’d still be there at all, as Italian leaders are famously short-lived. Remarkably, her right-wing Brothers of Italy party looks as rock solid in polls as it did four years ago, and she now has her eye on the record longest term for an Italian premier — a feat she is due to accomplish in September. A loss in what is set to be a nail-biting referendum on the bitter and complex issue of judicial reform on March 22 and 23 would be her first major set back — and would puncture the air of political invincibility that she exudes not only in Rome but also in Brussels. Meloni has thrived on the European stage, and has become adept at using the EU machinery to her advantage. Only in recent months, she has made decisive interventions on the EU’s biggest dossiers, such as Russian assets, the Mercosur trade deal and carbon markets, leveraging Italy’s heavyweight status to win concessions in areas like farm subsidies. Profiting from France’s weakness, Meloni is also establishing a strong partnership with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — a double act between the EU’s No. 1 and No. 3 economies — to mold the bloc’s policies to favor manufacturing and free trade. CRASHING DOWN TO EARTH For a few more days, at least, Meloni looks like a uniquely stable and influential Italian leader. Nicola Procaccini, a Brothers of Italy MEP very close to Meloni and co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, called the government’s longevity a “real novelty” in the European political landscape. “Until recently, Italy couldn’t insert itself into the dynamics of those that shape the European Union — essentially the Franco-German axis — because it lacked governments capable of lasting even a year,” said the MEP. “Giorgia Meloni is not just a leader who endures; she is a leader who shapes decisions and influences the direction to be taken.” But critics of the prime minister said a failure in the referendum would mark a critical turning point. Her rivals would finally detect a chink in her armor and move to attack her record, particularly on economic weaknesses at home. The unexpected, new message to other EU leaders would be clear: She won’t be here for ever. Brando Benifei, an MEP in Italy’s center-left opposition Democratic Party, conceded that other EU leaders saw her as the leader of a “ultra-stable government.” But, if she were to lose the referendum, he argued “she would inevitably lose that aura.” “Everyone remembers how it ended for Renzi’s coalition after he lost his referendum,” Benifei added, in reference to former Democratic Party Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who resigned after his own failed referendum in 2016. MACHIAVELLIAN MELONI Meloni owes much of her success on the EU stage to canny opportunism. At the beginning of the year, she slyly spotted an opportunity — suddenly wavering on the Mercosur trade deal, which Rome has long supported — to win extra cash for farmers that would please her powerful farm unions at home. She held off from actually killing the agreement, something that would have lost her friends among other capitals. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at a signing ceremony during an Italy-Germany Intergovernmental Summit in Rome on Jan. 23, 2026. | Pool photo by Michael Kappeler/AFP via Getty Images The Italian leader “knows how to read the room very well,” said one European diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss European Council dynamics.   Teresa Coratella, deputy head of the Rome office at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, said Meloni had  “a political cunning” that allowed her to build “variable geometries,” allying with different European leaders by turn based on the subject under discussion. One of her first victories came on migration in 2023. She was able to elevate the issue to the top level of the European Council, and even managed to secure a visit by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Tunisia, eventually resulting in the signing of a pact on the issue. Others wins followed.  Last December, with impeccable timing, Meloni unexpectedly threw her lot in with Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever at the last minute, scuppering a plan to fund Ukraine’s defenses with Russian frozen assets, instead pushing for more EU joint debt. Italian diplomats said that Meloni is a careful student, showing up to summits always having read the relevant documents, and having asking the apposite questions. That wasn’t always the case with former Italian prime ministers.  They said her choice of functionaries — rewarding competence over and above political affiliation — also helps. These include her chief diplomatic consigliere Fabrizio Saggio and Vincenzo Celeste, ambassador to the EU. Neither is considered close politically to Meloni.   Her biggest coup, though, has been shunting aside France as Germany’s main European partner on key files, with her partnership with Merz even being dubbed “Merzoni.” ROLLING THE DICE Meloni’s strength partly explains why she dared call the referendum. Italy’s right has for decades complained that the judiciary is biased to the left. It’s a feud that goes back to the Mani Pulite (Clean Hands) anti-corruption drive in the 1990s that pulverized the political elite of that time, and the constant court cases against playboy premier and media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, father of the modern center-right. The proposal in the plebiscite is to restructure the judiciary. But it’s a high-stakes gamble, and why she called it seems something of a puzzle. The reforms themselves are highly technical — and by the government’s own admission won’t actually speed up Italy’s notoriously long court cases.    Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni attends the European Council meeting on June 26, 2025 in Brussels. | Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images Instead, the vote has turned into a more general vote of confidence in Meloni and her government. The timing is tough as Italians widely dislike her ally U.S. President Donald Trump and fear the war in Iran will drive up their already high power prices. Still, she is determined not to suffer Renzi’s fate and insists she will not step down even if she loses the referendum.  Asked at a conference on Thursday whether a loss would make Rome appear less stable in its dealings with other European capitals, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani was adamant that the referendum has “absolutely nothing to do with the stability of the government.” “This government will last until the day of the next national elections,” he added. A victory on Monday will put the wind in her sails before the next general elections, which have to be held by the end of 2027. It would also set the stage for other reforms that Meloni wants to enact: a move to a more presidential system, with a direct election of the prime minister, making the role more like the French presidency.  But a loss would galvanize the opposition — split between the populist 5Star Movement, and the traditional center-left Democratic Party. The danger is her rivals would round on her particularly over the economy. Even counting for the fact Italy has benefitted from the largest tranche of the Covid-era recovery package — growth has been sluggish, consistently below 1 percent, falling to 0.5 percent in 2025.  “We have a situation in which the country is increasingly heading toward stagnation and we have to ask ourselves what would have happened if we had not had the boost of the Recovery Fund,” said Enrico Borghi, a senator from Italia Viva, Renzi’s party. Procaccini, however, defended her, both on employment and growth. “It could be better,” he conceded. “But we are still talking about growth, unlike countries that in this historical phase are recording a decline, as in the case of Germany.”

FAVERSHAM, U.K. — Frank Furedi, one of the European populist right’s intellectual darlings, has a nagging anxiety. What if they gain power, then blow it? A Hungarian-born sociologist who spent decades on the political fringes himself, Furedi now runs MCC Brussels, a think tank backed by Viktor Orbán’s Budapest government. It aims to challenge what he calls the European Union’s liberal consensus — and help sharpen the ideas of a rising populist right. Speaking in his home office in the English market town of Faversham, where he was recovering from a recent illness, the 78-year-old professional provocateur — who has risen to prominence in Europe’s right-wing circles — hailed what he sees as the impending collapse of Europe’s political center. But he also questioned whether the insurgent movements benefiting from that upheaval have the discipline needed to govern if they win. “You can win an election, but if you’re not prepared for its consequences, then you become your worst enemy,” he said during a two-hour conversation in his paper-strewn office. “You basically risk being doomed forever.” Across Europe, the movements Furedi is talking about are already testing the political mainstream. Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is surging in Britain, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has a real shot at the French presidency, and the Alternative for Germany is consistently at or near the top of polls. In Italy and Hungary, Giorgia Meloni and Orbán have already shown what populists in power can look like. Inside his house in Faversham, the conversation turned from Europe’s populist surge to the ideas that might shape what comes next. As Furedi led the way up the stairs, a yapping cockerpoo was hauled away into some back room. At the top of the staircase was a framed poster of Hannah Arendt, the philosopher who understood the attraction of radical political movements for the disenfranchised and alienated — and the potential for those movements to veer into evil. Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is surging in Britain, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has a real shot at the French presidency, and the Alternative for Germany is consistently at or near the top of polls. | Nicolas Guyonnet/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images But Furedi isn’t worried about a return of European totalitarianism — if anything, he thinks the current regime is where freedom of thought and speech are being crushed. His real fear is that Europe’s right-wingers arrive in power unprepared — failing to learn from the experience of the U.S. MAGA movement, which almost blew its chance after Donald Trump won power in 2016 but couldn’t execute a coherent vision for government.  “There’s a real demand for something different,” he said. “It’s the collapse of the old order, which is really what’s exciting.” But while Furedi is eager to watch it all burn down, he’s unconvinced by the right-wing parties carrying the torches.  “At the moment, all politics is negative,” he said, noting two exceptions where the right has managed to govern with stability: Meloni and Orbán.  “It’s a fascinating moment in most parts of Europe, but it’s a moment that isn’t going to be there forever,” he said. “But whether these movements have got the maturity and the professionalism to be able to project themselves in a convincing way still remains to be seen.”  POLITICAL PROGRAM Like Farage, Meloni and many of their ilk, Furedi is riding a political wave after a lifetime spent far from power or relevance. Since the 1960s he has been an agitator at the obscure edge of politics, first on the left as a founder of the Revolutionary Communist Party and its magazine Living Marxism, which attacked the British Labour Party for its centrism, later to become a writer for Spiked, an internet magazine that attacked Labour from the right.  His real fear is that Europe’s right-wingers arrive in power unprepared — failing to learn from the experience of the U.S. MAGA movement. | Heather Diehl/Getty Images He’s pro-Brexit, but thinks the EU should remain intact (albeit with diminished power). He despises doctrinaire multiculturalism, is a defender of women’s right to have an abortion, and thinks Covid and climate change reveal an undesirable timidity in the face of danger. He’s an implacable supporter of Israel, but thinks freedom of speech should extend even to abhorrent ideas, including Holocaust denial. He thinks the far right should support trade unions.  “I don’t see myself as right-wing. So even though other people might call me far-right, right, fascist or whatever, I identify myself in a very different kind of way,” he said. That evening he planned to watch Wuthering Heights. The best thing he’s seen recently? Sinners.  Under Furedi, MCC Brussels has gained notoriety — and some level of mainstream acceptance — as a far-right counterweight to the hefty centrist institutes that dot the city’s European Quarter.  The think tank promotes Hungary’s brand of right-wing nationalism and its rejection of European federalism, immigration policy and LGBTQ+ inclusion. But he insists the project isn’t about being a mouthpiece for Budapest so much as creating a place where right-wing ideas can be tested and hardened. Across all of politics, he laments, “ideas are not taken sufficiently seriously.”  MCC Brussels is fully funded by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, a private higher education institution that has received massive financial backing from Orbán’s government. While Furedi acknowledges that the think tank’s publications frequently echo the Hungarian government — “we have our sympathies” — he denies that Orbán calls the shots.  MCC Brussels is fully funded by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, a private higher education institution that has received massive financial backing from Orbán’s government. | János Kummer/Getty Images Hungary’s upcoming election, which threatens to end the prime minister’s 16-year rule, is unlikely to affect its funding. The college is floated by assets permanently gifted by the government, said John O’Brien, MCC Brussels head of communications.  OTHER MOVEMENTS’ WEAKNESSES In his eighth decade, Furedi worries he will run out of time to see “something nice happening.” But he’s convinced the political order he has spent his life attacking is ready to fold. To illustrate why, he points to Faversham. He arrived in the area in 1974 to study at the University of Kent, where he later became a professor. In the last few years the town has become a flash point for anti-immigration protests after a former care home was converted to house a few dozen refugee children.  Last summer and fall, left and right protest groups clashed over a campaign to hang English flags across the town. One Guardian reader reported hearing chants of “Sieg Heil” in the streets at night. To Furedi, the anger behind the clashes is the inevitable consequence of a narrow politics that has not only lost touch with the people it represents, but actively shut them out. “Our elites adopted what are called post-material values and basically looked down on people who were interested in their material circumstances,” he said. YouGov’s most recent seat-by-seat polling analysis in September put Farage’s Reform easily ahead in Faversham. But Furedi doesn’t give the party a lot of credit for winning people’s backing with a positive program for government. “I think Reform recognizes the fact that they have to be both more professional,” he said. But, he added, “You cannot somehow magic a professional cadre of operators.”  YouGov’s most recent seat-by-seat polling analysis in September put Farage’s Reform easily ahead in Faversham. | Ben Birchall/PA Images via Getty Images The successes of the right are, in Furedi’s view, primarily based on being “beneficiaries of other movements’ weaknesses.”  The same was also true for Trump, he said. “It wasn’t like a love affair or anything of that sort. The U.S. president just happened to act as a conduit for a lot of those sentiments.” Is this a recipe for good government? “No,” he said. “One of the big tragedies in our world is that democracy in a nation requires serious political parties.”

PARIS — Emmanuel Macron has picked 33-year-old David Amiel to become France’s new budget minister, the French presidency announced on Sunday — a crucial role as the French government attempts to get its deficit under control amid a deep political crisis. Amiel replaces Amélie de Montchalin, a close ally of Macron who was appointed as head of France’s top court of auditors earlier this month. The controversial move led to accusations that the French president was politicizing a key French institution. Navigating budgetary debates has proven tricky since the 2024 general election in France, which led to a hung parliament. The French parliament ousted the two prime ministers who preceded current leader Sébastien Lecornu over their budgetary plans. In his first statement in his new role, Amiel said he would seek to ensure that the hard-fought budget for 2026, which was officially passed only last month, is properly rolled out. He also listed a series of aims including getting a better grip on tax evasion and welfare fraud. The current budget is expected to leave France with a deficit of 5 percent of its gross domestic product for 2026, per the government’s most recent estimate. Amiel has spent the last three months as minister for France’s public sector, his first government role.

PARIS — Sarah Knafo is using the electoral race for Paris mayor as a springboard to build her profile as the rising star of France’s anti-immigration, libertarian right. The 32-year-old firebrand MEP is on track for a significant breakthrough in a city with a traditional aversion to the far right. If she can maintain that level of support — she’s currently polling at 12 percent — Knafo would be the first far-right candidate ever to make the second round in the City of Lights. The big question is what will come next after a strong showing in Paris. The speculation among lawmakers and political insiders is that she could emerge as the presidential candidate for the Reconquest party, founded by her romantic partner Eric Zemmour, an inflammatory commentator who came fourth in the first round of the 2022 election. Knafo hates the “far-right” label and argues the designation is “stupid and obsolete,” styling herself as a Gaullist conservative who will govern through Swiss-style referendums. But it’s a tough label to shake given her association with Zemmour and membership of the Reconquest party, which takes a hard line on migration and Islam in France. In the 2022 election, the party sought mass remigrations and campaigned to ban the veil, along with the building of minarets and big mosques. In this year’s contest for mayor, she has campaigned on a platform based on slashing the size of city government and rolling back current Mayor Anne Hidalgo’s landmark green policies, wanting to allow cars back on the banks of the Seine. She is pushing to dramatically increase the size of the municipal police force and arm them with guns, as other municipalities have done in recent years. “It is indeed scandalous that Ms. Hidalgo refuses to arm the municipal police when we see that 80 percent of French municipal police forces are armed,” Knafo said earlier this month. “In a city with one of the the highest crime rates, in a city with one of the highest rates of burglary, theft, rape and sexual assault, she thought that it was not necessary to arm the police.” RECONQUERING PARIS The most conspicuous policy line dividing Knafo and her party from the front-runners is immigration. “Mass immigration did not create our problems, but it exacerbates almost all of them,” Knafo said in December before declaring her candidacy. Knafo has, since launching her campaign, taken a less fiery tone on migration. But the party position is unambiguous. Few will forget Zemmour’s comments on the Muslim community and his whitewashing of Vichy France’s role in the Holocaust — both of which earned him hate speech convictions. Zemmour is also widely credited with popularizing the “great replacement” conspiracy theory in France — that white populations are being deliberately displaced by non-whites — and it’s no coincidence that the name he chose for his party, Reconquest, references the Spanish Reconquista when the country’s medieval monarchs fought to expel Muslims.  The party’s stance on immigration will likely prevent Knafo from winning the race to lead a diverse city like Paris, but she has room to bolster her numbers if she can secure more support from the French capital’s wealthy, conservative neighborhoods. Right-wing residents of those districts often align with the far right on immigration but are scared off by the murky history and protectionist agenda of the National Rally, France’s most popular political party, and its candidate Thierry Mariani. That gives Knafo an opening. “Mass immigration did not create our problems, but it exacerbates almost all of them,” Knafo said in December before declaring her candidacy. | Frederic Vielcanet/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images Those voters likely won’t mind just how out of touch she seemed in early February when, during an interview, she said that an annual metro pass — which costs more than €90 a month — costs €52 a year. REPLACING ZEMMOUR The strong start to Knafo’s campaign in Paris is already fueling speculation that she, not Zemmour, will fly Reconquest’s colors in next year’s 2027 presidential race.   Knafo has repeatedly tried to pour cold water on talk of a presidential bid during her mayoral campaign, and Zemmour reiterated at the end of January that Knafo had been “biblically clear” that she would not be running for president.  But that’s taken with a pinch of salt.   A friend of the couple, who, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive matters, said they were skeptical of the public posturing. “If [she] gets a respectable score in Paris, she’ll be the one running for president,” the friend said. And a lawmaker from the National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, who knows Reconquest well, said the 67-year-old Zemmour is starting to be seen by his party’s supporters as “a bit fossilized.”   Even if a decision has not been made on who will represent Reconquest in 2027, their contrasting fortunes are so clear that they’re fueling a running joke in Paris: The man who shot to political fame by promoting the great replacement theory is about to be replaced by his girlfriend.   DARLING OF THE BOLLOSPHERE Knafo certainly has the resumé expected to make it to the top of France’s governing elite. Like National Rally President Jordan Bardella, France’s most popular politician according to most polls, she grew up in the impoverished Parisian suburbs of Seine Saint-Denis. Unlike Bardella, who dropped out of university, however, she graduated from some of France’s most prestigious institutions — including the famed presidential finishing school, the École Nationale d’Administration — before becoming a magistrate and getting her political start with the mainstream conservative party now known as Les Républicains. After her election to the European Parliament in 2024, Reconquest officials came up with a division of labor for Knafo and Zemmour. Zemmour would retreat to his writing while Knafo would be the party’s omnipresent face online and voice on the airwaves. She’s since become the darling of the “Bollosphere,” the collection of ultra-conservative media outlets run by the conservative Bolloré family. A friend of Knafo’s told POLITICO last summer she kept an eye on her image and messaging with the attention to detail required of a front-line politician. Her campaign has so far shown the digital savvy that’s come to be expected of millennial politicians. > ☀️ Allez, on roule vers la victoire ! > > 🗳️ Le 15 et 22 mars on gagne la Mairie ! pic.twitter.com/nZZvYQncxR > > — Sarah Knafo (@knafo_sarah) January 31, 2026 > 🏍️ Les deux-roues, c'est la liberté, la fluidité, et une ville qui respire. > Ils fluidifient Paris. > > Aujourd'hui, en duo avec Philippe Monneret, LA légende française du monde de > la moto🥇, pour évoquer l'avenir des deux-roues dans la capitale. > pic.twitter.com/P9Vg3zkDB7 > > — Sarah Knafo (@knafo_sarah) January 30, 2026 “She’ll demand why an [Instagram] reel ends at such and such minute when she had a great smile on her face after,” the friend said. Zemmour, meanwhile, only pays passing attention to social media. “It’s a bit cute, he’s happy when he gets views,” said Knafo’s friend. It is Knafo who is also charged with developing the party’s policy on core domestic issues, beyond the headline-grabbing themes of security and immigration.So it’s Knafo who presents the party’s counter-budget and proposes the abolition of all inheritance tax. In 2024, she managed to secure the job of authoring a non-binding report on tech sovereignty in the European Parliament. But centrist political parties, fearing the rising influence of the far right, effectively booted her from the role. They drafted a full “counter-report” behind the scenes and got it adopted in lieu of Knafo’s version. That report was approved last month, with Knafo’s name still on it despite complaints from the architects of the coup — and even a last-minute amendment calling out her own party. Knafo maintains the substance of the report is unchanged and says she sees no reason to withdraw her name from it. BANKABLE Knafo has made a strong impression in Paris’ right-wing circles as a polished operator who could challenge National Rally President Bardella for the mantle of the French far right’s millennial champion. Several who spoke to POLITICO for this story acknowledged that she’s a more accomplished politician and harder to caricature than the more ideological Zemmour. National Rally lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy refers to her as “Cleopatra.” He says it’s a compliment nodding to “her capacity as a strategist.” But does all that really mean she’ll replace Zemmour on the ballot in the next presidential election? Those who say yes believe Zemmour, who regularly praises Knafo’s talent when asked about her publicly, recognizes the dynamic and is perfectly happy to return to the world of the acerbic intelligentsia. An acquaintance who sees them on vacation in the south of France said it was telling to watch Zemmour ambling down the street, pushing their child in a stroller, while Knafo was three meters ahead with a phone glued to her ear. Those who believe the reverse say he would be humiliated, pointing to his 2006 essay “The First Sex” and noting that he has repeatedly belittled the idea of women in power. One far-right parliamentarian said he imagined Zemmour “unhappier than ever” and “having trouble sleeping” watching Knafo’s rise. Amid growing calls for a union spanning the entire French political right ahead of the next presidential election, conservative heavyweights such as Laurent Wauquiez, the top-ranking MP in Les Républicains, and Cannes Mayor David Lisnard are clamoring for a primary on the right spanning the ideological spectrum of “[center-right Justice Minister] Gérald Darmanin to Sarah Knafo.” National Rally lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy refers to her as “Cleopatra.” He says it’s a compliment nodding to “her capacity as a strategist.” | Bastien Ohier/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images Such a contest is unlikely to happen given whichever candidate represents the National Rally and Édouard Philippe, the center-right former PM who has already declared for the presidential race, would sit it out. Bruno Retailleau, the leader of Les Républicains, does not want to participate either. But Knafo privately hopes to see the primary take place. Were she to run, she likes her chances against whoever Les Républicains try to put up against her — as do other big hitters on the right. “I don’t understand what they’re doing,” one National Rally lawmaker said of Wauquiez and the other conservatives pushing for a primary. “They’re taking the risk that she’ll win.” One right-wing government minister was even more blunt. “It’s Knafo who wins. She’s more bankable than Laurent Wauquiez or Bruno Retailleau,” they said. Mathieu Pollet, Max Griera and Joshua Berlinger contributed to this report. This is adapted from an article first published by POLITICO in French.

BRUSSELS — The EU’s move to designate Iran’s feared paramilitary force as a terrorist organization was the product of a recalculation by several governments, in which the need to respond to Tehran’s brutal crackdown outweighed the diplomatic risks. For weeks, a group of influential EU capitals — led by France and, until recently, Italy and Spain — warned that a terror listing would close off what little diplomatic leverage Europe still had with Iran, risking reprisals against European nationals and complicating nuclear talks. That argument began to unravel as the regime’s internet blackout lifted and video footage circulated of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ violence against protesters. By Wednesday afternoon, the capitals championing the designation, among them Berlin, had managed to peel away Italy and Spain from France — with Paris loath to be out on its own. While “there was an internet ban everything was not clear,” said EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas when asked by POLITICO on Thursday what had changed capitals’ minds. But “when the atrocities were clear, then also it was clear there has to be a very strong response from the European side.” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola told POLITICO that after “seeing the appalling images emerging from Iran of the continued brutality of the regime … it was necessary for Europe to act.” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Paris had revised its view due to the “unwavering courage of the Iranians, who have been the target of this violence.” As other capitals got on board, “the pressure [on France] became too much,” a European Parliament official said. “They didn’t want to stand there like the only ones blocking this decision and supporting that regime … The shame of being the one to block this, the cost became too big.” DOMINOES FALLING Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel told POLITICO that the emergence of new video evidence of killings and violence from regime forces had crossed a “big line” for many EU countries. The Netherlands has been one of the key proponents of designating the Revolutionary Guard. Italy was the first to publicly declare it had changed camps, with Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Monday saying “the losses suffered by the civilian population during the protests require a clear response.” One EU diplomat from a country that had pushed for the listing in the lead-up to Thursday’s meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels said footage of parents looking for their children in body bags had been particularly “horrific” and “motivating,” along with reports of deaths in the tens of thousands. Early on Wednesday afternoon, Spain signaled its position had also shifted, with the foreign ministry telling POLITICO it supported the designation, which puts the Revolutionary Guard in the same category as al Qaeda, Hamas and Daesh. Paris was the last holdout. U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that “time is running out” for the regime. | Laurent Gillieron/EPA French officials had argued such a massive terror listing — the group has more than 100,000 personnel — would limit opportunities to talk about nuclear nonproliferation and other matters due to the fact that many of Europe’s interlocutors are tied to the sprawling Revolutionary Guards.  France, along with the U.K. and Germany, is also a member of the E3 group of nations that are holding nuclear talks with Iran. While the E3 recently activated snapback sanctions on Tehran over its failure to cooperate with inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Paris was still hoping for a diplomatic solution. For France, keeping the Revolutionary Guard off the EU terror list “maintained the possibility that the E3 could play a role if the negotiations on the nuclear program started again,” said a European diplomat.  But there was another reason preventing Paris from coming aboard. While French officials had avoided making the link between France’s stance and Iran’s use of hostage diplomacy, weighing on them were the fates of two of their nationals — Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris — who had recently been released from the notorious Evin Prison and are under house arrest at the French Embassy in Tehran. But lacking support from its allies to continue to resist the move, Paris dropped its opposition. France’s Barrot said the deaths of thousands of protesters could not “happen in vain.” The United States, which designated the Revolutionary Guard as a terror group in 2019, has also been pressing the EU to follow suit, with a French presidency official saying Paris had had “a very large number of exchanges with the Americans” on Iran.  U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that “time is running out” for the regime and that a “massive Armada” was “moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose” toward the country. Clea Caulcutt, Victor Goury-Laffont, Gabriel Gavin and Tim Ross contributed reporting.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart may be heading for bilateral talks on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin “expressed readiness to engage in dialogue” with Macron on the issue, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday, according to media reports. The Elysée responded positively. “It is welcome that the Kremlin has publicly agreed to this approach. We will decide in the coming days on the best way to proceed,” the French presidency said. Macron said at last week’s EU summit in Brussels that it would be “useful” for Europe to reach out to Putin to ensure that a peace deal in Ukraine is not negotiated solely by the United States, Russia and Ukraine. “I think that we Europeans and Ukrainians need to find a framework to engage a discussion in due form,” Macron told reporters as the summit wrapped up early Friday morning. The Elysée stressed that any talks with Russia would take place in “full transparency” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European allies, Le Monde reported. Macron and Putin have rarely been in direct contact since Moscow launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Their most recent phone communication was in July, following about three years of no contact.

PARIS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Paris on Monday for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, the Elysée Palace said. The two leaders will meet as Zelenskyy’s government is engulfed in a damaging corruption scandal over allegations that the president’s associates had plotted to skim around $100 million from Ukraine’s energy sector as the country’s citizens suffer from blackouts caused by Russian attacks against infrastructure. Macron and Zelenskyy will discuss issues relating to bilateral relations, energy, the economy and defense, according to the statement from the French presidency. The visit will also be an opportunity to “reaffirm France’s long-term commitment for Ukraine” and “maintain the drive for security guarantees” offered by the coalition of the willing led by the French and the British. The corruption scandal comes as Kyiv faces a budget crunch next year and is seeking to secure desperately needed funds from the European Union. Brussels wants to use Russian frozen assets as a “reparation loan” to Ukraine, but still needs to convince Belgium, where most of the assets are held. Presidential adviser Andriy Yermak said Zelenskyy was “not corrupt” and a”very principled person” in an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, to which POLITICO belongs. EU allies, however, want reassurances that Kyiv is doing what it can to tackle corruption. On Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin expects “Ukraine to press ahead with anti-corruption measures and reforms,” after a call with the Ukrainian president.

PARIS — A solitary President Emmanuel Macron was spotted walking and making calls beside the Seine River on Monday, as he weighed his crucial response to the chaos engulfing France after the shock resignation of his fifth government since reelection in 2022. Ever the political showman, Macron — pacing the flagstones of the quais in a dark navy overcoat — was also seen talking to passers-by, in images that contrast with the accusations that the former Rothschild banker is disconnected from ordinary people. The outing fits with his model of ostentatious displays at critical political moments. He took a stroll, then a boat trip on the Seine, when he resigned as economy minister in 2016 to launch his presidential bid. On the night of his election in 2017, he took a three-minute victory lap around the Louvre Museum, again in the dark overcoat preferred for moments of high-drama. After Lecornu’s resignation mere hours after his government was appointed, Macron has his back against the wall, as the crisis in the eurozone’s No. 2 economy is sapping confidence in both French markets and the euro. The appointment last month of a close ally as prime minister was seen as the last resort for the French president. If the ultimate Macron loyalist couldn’t secure a functioning government, make a deal with opposition parties on the budget, who could? Now the president faces an array of unappetizing options: appointing a new prime minister who will almost certainly fail, calling a snap election that will probably bring the far-right National Rally closer to power. Or something he said he would never do: resign. In a sign of the difficulties he faces, the French president seemed angry and appeared to snap at a close ally during a conversation Monday morning, according to this ally, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. The tension is at its peak. Lecornu walked out on Monday, when the newly reappointed interior minister (and head of the conservatives), Bruno Retailleau, said he wasn’t sure his party wanted to stay in government. The French president could now appoint a new prime minister, but anybody from the center-right, the left or even a technocrat would struggle to push a divided and hostile parliament to agree on a slimmed-down budget. Calling a parliamentary snap election could buy the president time, but polls show it would strengthen the far right. And less that two years before a presidential election, boosting the far right is hardly something the French president wants to add to his legacy. Elisa Bertholomey and Pauline de Saint Remy contributed reporting.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán may find support in unusual corners for his bid to stop Ukraine from joining the EU — including from French President Emmanuel Macron. Ahead of a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen Oct. 1, European Council President António Costa has been lobbying European leaders to find a way around Hungary’s opposition to Kyiv’s joining the bloc, among other stalled membership bids. As first reported by POLITICO on Monday, the Portuguese politician has offered to change EU rules to allow formal accession talks to begin following approval by a qualified majority of leaders, rather than by unanimous consent as is currently required. But Costa’s plan is proving controversial. While Orbán is the EU leader closest to President Vladimir Putin and most hostile to Ukraine, other leaders have very different motives to join his side — mainly to defend their veto power. The plan faces pushback from several EU countries, including France, the Netherlands and Greece, and is unlikely to get wide approval in Denmark, according to three EU diplomats and a French presidency official who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.  The concern among these countries is that by changing the accession rules, they would also be limiting their own ability to block membership bids they see as problematic, the same people said. That opens up a host of rivalries that Orbán can play upon: It’s important to the Greeks, for example, to show they can hold up talks on Turkey’s membership, just as Bulgarians want to be able to draw the line on North Macedonia, and Croats to block Serbia. Costa’s suggestion would open a path forward not just for Ukraine — whose bid has been held up for months due to Orbán’s veto — but also for Moldova, as the two countries’ candidacies are linked. According to a senior EU official, Costa’s proposal will be on the table in Copenhagen on Wednesday, along with another proposal to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. “No leader to this day replied with a total ‘no’ to this idea,” the senior official said, referring to Costa’s rule-change proposal. Finnish President Alexander Stubb told POLITICO that he backed any attempt to speed up the process. “Any decision-making mechanism which gives more flexibility and less possibility to block I personally welcome, and never more so than with Ukraine,” he said. But the camp opposing Costa and Stubb may prove too strong. And if the price of preserving the rules is that Ukraine and Moldova may have to wait months, if not years, to see their bids move forward, it’s one that these countries are willing to pay. “We’re not convinced at all by changing the rules of the game during the game, because that is what some are proposing,” said a senior EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. “If you do qualified majority voting [to push the accession process forward], there is a very big risk of the process being extremely politicized,” they added. Paris has also historically opposed Turkey’s accession to the bloc, with Emmanuel Macron telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as recently as 2018 there was no chance of Ankara’s bid advancing. | Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images An even greater challenge is that in order to change the rules, all 27 member countries including Hungary would have to be in agreement — a non-starter for these diplomats. “If we had to change or evolve on the decision-making process, that would also have to be decided via unanimity, which does not seem to be possible today,” said a French presidency official. PULLING FOR UKRAINE The push to streamline EU accession comes as top EU officials throw their weight behind the Ukrainian and Moldovan membership bids. Von der Leyen has repeatedly stated that Ukraine “belongs in the EU,” arguing that Kyiv could achieve full membership in the 27-member grouping by 2030 if it carries on with judicial and economic reforms. Kyiv has carried out judicial reforms and has had extensive talks with counterparts in Brussels, but legally speaking, negotiations have yet to begin. That’s because under the current rules, Hungary can block formal talks. Moldova is in the same boat. Chișinău’s bid to join the 27-member bloc — which President Maia Sandu placed at the heart of the campaign ahead of legislative elections this past Sunday — is tied to that of Ukraine, meaning it cannot advance as long as Kyiv’s candidacy remains blocked. The stalled process carries a price for both Sandu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as both tout future EU membership as an alternative to Russia’s sphere of influence. Costa’s initiative won backing this week from the European Commission, where officials privately say that the current process — which requires a unanimous vote at more than 100 stages — is too cumbersome. Costa’s idea is to introduce qualified majority voting at those interim stages so that progress can be made, even if a small number of countries are opposed. Final accession to the EU would still be impossible without unanimous approval. ORBÁN’S UNLIKELY ALLIES But that push is now running into opposition from leaders who see their membership veto as deeply tied up with national sovereignty. Take Greece, which has long opposed Turkey’s membership bid as a security threat. Athens relies on its veto as a way of guaranteeing that Ankara will never join the EU — even if Turkey’s bid is legally on hold. “On this proposal we are very cautious,” said a Greek official, referring to Costa’s rule-tweak proposal. Paris has also historically opposed Turkey’s accession to the bloc, with Macron telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as recently as 2018 there was no chance of Ankara’s bid advancing. The same goes for Bulgaria, which wants to be able to block North Macedonia’s entry into the bloc, or Croatia, which has historically opposed Serbia’s accession.  “Obviously the Hungarians are blocking the Ukrainians,” said the first EU diplomat. “But that’s not all. The Bulgarians want to be able to block the Macedonians, the Croats want to be able to control the Serbs, Greece and Cyprus don’t want Turkey to come any closer to the EU, and Greece also would want to keep an eye on Albania,” the diplomat added. In public, EU leaders may oppose Hungary’s blocking of Ukraine. But behind closed doors, many find it a convenient cover for their own demands. Tim Ross, Gregorio Sorgi and Gabriel Gavin contributed reporting.

PARIS — Russia likely wants to militarize space, while its undersea activity is also “extremely worrying,” a top French general said during a rare press conference Friday. Describing the Kremlin as “a lasting threat,” Chief of the Defense Staff Thierry Burkhard said Russian submarines “regularly enter the North Atlantic and then sometimes descend into the Mediterranean” in order to “monitor areas which are important [to France].” Burkhard also said Moscow’s satellites are being used to spy on or interfere with French equipment. He also pointed to “signs of a desire to militarize space” with specialized satellites “which would likely not be legal under the laws relating to the non-militarization of space.” During the first press conference held by the French chief of the defense staff since 2021, Burkhard aimed to outline the threats currently facing France ahead of a speech Sunday on defense by President Emmanuel Macron, which is expected to include major announcements. Beyond Russia, Burkhard also highlighted how tensions in other parts of the world — including the Middle East — are adding to an already demanding situation for French troops. He stressed that “unbridled use of force” and “getting used to violence” had become defining elements of the global landscape. While avoiding a direct call for increased military spending, Burkhard said that finding the best way to confront these challenges “probably comes at a cost.” France is looking to increase its military budget to €67.4 billion by 2030, from €50.5 billion for this year.