Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Is it enough to come first in an election? In the Netherlands, you hear that centrist Rob Jetten won big and Geert Wilders’ far right lost a lot — even though either one could still turn out to be No. 1 when all the votes are counted. Eva Hartog breaks down the results of the Dutch election with host Sarah Wheaton, and Max Griera reflects on what Frans Timmermans’ defeat means for social democrats all over Europe. Then, our Berlaymont Who’s Who series is back, with an introduction to Vice President of the European Commission Roxana Mînzatu of Romania. Finally, Shawn Pogatchnik takes us through last week’s Irish presidential election, which was, in contrast to the Dutch vote, a bright spot for the political left.

Eoin Drea is senior research officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Catherine Connolly’s election as Ireland’s next president highlights just how delusional the country has become when it comes to security. It should also serve as a wake-up call for other EU members in terms of the country’s unreliability on defense issues. Opposing Germany’s rearmament on the basis that it represents a “revitalization” of its “military industrial base” isn’t even Connolly’s most extreme position. To her, Berlin’s current spending plans are reminiscent of the military build-up in the 1930s. She’s critical of NATO, voted no to the Lisbon and Nice treaties in Irish referenda and has called Hamas “part of the fabric of the Palestinian people.” Yet, she romped home with nearly 65 percent of the vote. That’s because Connolly’s views aren’t fringe or some populist narrative — they actually represent mainstream political sentiment on the Emerald Isle. As the EU starts focusing on rearmament, Ireland’s traveling in the exact opposite direction. Even with war raging in Ukraine, America’s growing unpredictability and Russia probing undersea infrastructure in Irish waters, Dublin’s political culture remains mired in myths of neutrality and moral exceptionalism — and it is refusing to budge. This approach is no longer credible in Brussels. And it’s why only a defense union with Britain can save Ireland now. Despite bumper budget surpluses underpinned by surging receipts from U.S. tech and pharma companies, Ireland is refusing to spend more on its armed forces. The country’s defense spending has barely risen above inflation since 2022. It’s capital budget for defense stands at a paltry €300 million for 2026 — and this is in an EU country with no fighter jets, navy ships with sporadically working guns and only enough sailors to send a single vessel on patrol per day. Dublin has demonstrably failed to seize the geopolitical moment, and is instead being scarily naïve. And given the circumstances, only a formal bilateral agreement with the U.K. can deliver the territorial security that Ireland — and the EU’s western borders — desperately needs. This is realpolitik, not Celtic sentimentality. The case for a defense union rests on two inconvenient but undeniable truths. First, geography — not history — is destiny. Ireland and Britain share an island archipelago, as well as a free travel area. Despite Brexit, there remains no physical border between Southern and Northern Ireland. And the country has long prioritized maintaining its common travel zone with Britain over potentially joining the EU’s Schengen area. The current reality is that British jets already respond to threats in Irish airspace with the Irish government’s approval, and it’s the British Navy that hunts Russian threats in Irish waters. But Irish sovereignty would be better protected through structured partnership — one along the lines of the Belgian and Dutch naval forces — than through the kind of cheapskate dependence that currently exists. Second, the U.K. has what Ireland simply refuses to provide: fighters, frigates, satellites, cyber infrastructure and institutional depth. France and Germany lack both proximity and capability to consistently patrol the Irish Sea and North Atlantic. Continental European forces can’t scramble from nearby airfields or deploy from Ireland-adjacent ports on short notice. Catherine Connolly romped home with nearly 65 percent of the vote. | Niall Carson/PA Images via Getty Images The framework I’m talking about is rather simple: Joint Anglo-Irish responsibility for air policing and maritime surveillance in Irish zones, with Irish participation in joint command, training and procurement mechanisms. Ireland would also invest in complementary capabilities like patrol vessels, intelligence, cyber defense and infrastructure protection. And no Ireland-based British bases would be necessary; forward deployment and joint operation centers would suffice. Speaking more broadly, a formal Anglo-Irish agreement would also embed Britain in EU defense policy. A key objective in Brussels, considering the ongoing war in Ukraine and the uncertainty over future U.S. support. Such a union would intertwine the security objectives of London, Washington and the EU, and could also be narrowly tailored to placate the perennially disgruntled French. No foreign adventures. No NATO. Just credible security capabilities in Irish waters and skies. Ireland has long prided itself on being one of Europe’s most globalized economies. It hosts U.S. tech and pharma giants, and its economy is fueled by their corporate taxes. Dublin depends on free trade and stable institutions. Yet, the same political class celebrating such openness to global capital demands insularity when it comes to security. The cognitive dissonance is staggering. How can one host Apple, Google, and Pfizer while playing neutral on defense? Of course, opposition will undoubtedly come from the “1916 Brigade,” who worship neutrality as doctrine rather than policy, and see any British security cooperation as treasonable. But this position is neither principled nor rational. The 1916 Brigade dreams of Western prosperity without Western security obligations — that is not neutrality. It is nativism wrapped in nationalist mythology. Austria — the neutrality model some invoke — spends about three times Ireland’s defense percentage and maintains real military capability. Simply put, Ireland’s military helplessness has been subsidized by British and NATO-member taxpayers for far too long. It’s time for the country to focus on the present, not the past.

DUBLIN — Independent socialist Catherine Connolly swept to a landslide victory Saturday to become Ireland’s next president, dealing a record-breaking rebuke to the two center-ground parties of government. Jubilant supporters of the 68-year-old Connolly, a lawmaker from the western city of Galway, embraced and kissed her as final results from Friday’s election were announced at the Dublin Castle count center. In her victory speech, Connolly struck an immediate note of unity. She stood side by side with Ireland’s government leaders — and pledged to challenge the far right and its anti-immigrant agenda. “Together we can shape a new republic that values everybody, that values and champions diversity … and the new people that have come to our country,” she said. “I will be an inclusive president for all of you.” Connolly won a record 63.4 percent of valid votes. Heather Humphreys of the government coalition party Fine Gael finished a distant second with 29.5 percent. Connolly’s triumph shattered the previous record set in 1959 when Eamon de Valera, the towering figure of 20th-century Irish politics, won his first term as president with 56.3 percent support. On Nov. 11, Connolly will succeed her fellow Galway socialist Michael D. Higgins, Ireland’s president since 2011, who was constitutionally barred from seeking a third seven-year term. Finishing in third and last place Saturday was Jim Gavin of the largest government party, Fianna Fáil, who won barely 7 percent of votes. Gavin, a political novice hand-picked by Prime Minister Micheál Martin, remained on the official ballot despite quitting the race midway after admitting he had pocketed €3,300 in excess rent from a tenant. Connolly won, in no small part, thanks to backing from Ireland’s five left-wing parties, most crucially Sinn Féin. All stood aside to give her a clean run on an anti-government platform, a political first for the normally fractious left. While the left celebrated from Dublin Castle to Galway, Ireland’s disgruntled conservatives left their own mark on the election — by vandalizing their ballots in unprecedented numbers. More than 200,000 ballots — or about one of every eight cast — had to be discarded. Many voters had written in the names of their own invalid choices, or drawn disparaging X marks across all three candidates. Others defaced their ballots, often with anti-immigrant messages expressed in nativist or racist terms. Their alienation reflects how the government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, since the 1990s have largely ditched their previous bonds with Catholic conservatism and have become, like Connolly and the wider left, socially progressive and welcoming to immigrants. A Catholic conservative, Maria Steen, narrowly failed to qualify for the ballot, falling two short of the required backing from 20 lawmakers. Mixed martial arts fighter Conor McGregor, who often denounces immigrants in his social media posts, tapped out after attracting virtually no official support. Kevin Cunningham, managing director of the polling firm Ireland Thinks, called the volume of spoiled votes “enormous.” He found that more than two-thirds of protesting voters had expressed support for Steen. The final week of campaigning coincided with one of the biggest flare-ups of racist sentiment since downtown Dublin was wracked by rioting in November 2023. On Tuesday and Wednesday nights, crowds of up to 2,000 people clashed with riot police protecting Citywest, a hotel and conference center southwest of Dublin that has been turned into the state’s biggest shelter for asylum seekers. That area registered one of the highest rates of spoiled ballots. And on Friday, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who had opted not to seek the presidency herself, was subjected to vulgar threats from an anti-immigration activist as she canvassed in her central Dublin constituency for Connolly. That man, who posted video footage of his verbal assault on McDonald and other Sinn Féin canvassers, was arrested Saturday. Humphreys — who had stepped into the breach when Fine Gael’s original candidate, former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness, quit the race citing health problems — conceded defeat hours before the official result. Humphreys, too, expressed worries about the rising level of social media-driven harassment. Humphreys, a member of the Republic of Ireland’s tiny Protestant minority, said she hadn’t regretted running despite suffering a barrage of online insults belittling her family’s background. She said that vitriol had demonstrated that her country wasn’t yet ready to reconcile, and potentially unite as Irish nationalists want, with Protestants in the neighboring U.K. territory of Northern Ireland. “My family and I were subject to some absolutely awful sectarian abuse. As a country, I thought we had moved on from that,” Humphreys said. “If we’re ever to have a united Ireland, we have to respect all traditions.”

DUBLIN — The political future of Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin has been plunged into doubt by the shock withdrawal of his personal choice to become the country’s next president. Martin had bewildered and irritated many within his own centrist Fianna Fáil party by pushing the out-of-nowhere candidacy of Jim Gavin. The former military pilot and manager of Dublin’s championship-winning Gaelic football team had never sought elected office before — and it painfully showed in a gaffe-filled campaign. Gavin’s bid to be elected president in the Oct. 24 election crashed to the ground hours after he faced accusations of being a rip-off landlord, a particularly damaging charge in a country where the scarcity and prohibitive cost of housing is a top election issue. In a statement issued shortly before midnight, Gavin appeared to confirm media reports that he had failed to refund a tenant more than €3,000 in overpaid rent on a Dublin apartment back in 2009. “I made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself,” Gavin said. “I have decided to withdraw from the presidential election contest with immediate effect and return to the arms of my family.” But it’s legally too late to remove Gavin from the three-candidate ballot. This means any votes cast next month for Gavin will still need to be counted and redistributed to the other two candidates, pro-government former minister Heather Humphreys and anti-government socialist Catherine Connolly — and could prove pivotal in deciding the winner. There’s even a fear in government circles that disillusioned voters angry with the choices on offer could vote for Gavin in protest, “electing” a figure who’s no longer willing to serve as Ireland’s next ceremonial head of state. That would produce a potential constitutional crisis. The figure most obviously in the firing line now is Martin, the great survivor of Irish political life. The 65-year-old Corkman took the helm of Fianna Fáil on the eve of its greatest-ever electoral drubbing back in 2011 when his party was blamed for the country’s banking crash and international bailout. He led Fianna Fáil back from the political ashes to become a joint leader of Ireland’s last two coalition governments since 2020. In January, Martin regained the top post of prime minister following Fianna Fáil’s stronger-than-expected performance in last year’s general election. Under terms of his renewed coalition deal with fellow center-ground party Fine Gael, he is supposed to serve as taoiseach until late 2027, when he passes the job back to the Fine Gael chief, Foreign Minister Simon Harris. But his political vulnerability within Fianna Fáil was laid bare last month when he plucked Gavin from political obscurity to contest the presidency. Martin failed to consult widely in advance with his own party lawmakers, who were asked to rubber-stamp the move. Nearly 30 refused and instead backed one of Fianna Fáil’s longest-serving parliamentarians, MEP Billy Kelleher. Following Gavin’s withdrawal, Kelleher quickly took to the Irish airwaves Monday to decry how Martin and senior advisers had failed to vet or prepare Gavin for a campaign that “went so horribly wrong so quickly.” When asked whether Martin’s leadership was now at risk, Kelleher told RTÉ radio: “Obviously a lot of people are very upset over this. That does have consequences from a party perspective. It is a very serious miscalculation.” On the campaign trail, Martin often appeared at Gavin’s side as his choice committed one misstep after another. First, the Dubliner ran an online ad targeting rural voters in which he claimed to hail from farming roots — while failing to bolt a cattle gate and striding through the muck in white trousers. Next, the former Irish Defence Forces pilot had to withdraw other video ads after the drone operator contracted for the work was found to have violated airspace laws in Dublin and near the capital’s airport. That undercut Gavin’s reputation for competence as chief operations officer at Ireland’s aviation regulator. He also attracted criticism from within Irish military ranks for other, rapidly withdrawn or re-edited campaign material that showed soldiers appearing to endorse, or even physically applaud, his candidacy. The Irish Defence Forces command complained that its political neutrality was being misrepresented. But accusations that he failed to repay €3,300 to a tenant — reported Saturday by the Irish Independent — left Gavin stumbling for an explanation on a live studio presidential debate Sunday.

DUBLIN — Ireland’s presidential election will feature only three candidates — the fewest in 35 years. Catholic conservatives on Wednesday decried the narrow failure of their candidate, anti-abortion campaigner Maria Steen, to secure a spot on the Oct. 24 ballot to become Ireland’s next head of state. Steen needed official endorsements from at least 20 lawmakers to be listed, but she fell two short of the constitutional requirement. She and her supporters predicted that hundreds of thousands of right-wing voters would spoil their ballots or boycott the election in protest. The race now will pit one anti-establishment lawmaker from Ireland’s left-wing opposition, Catherine Connolly, against politicians from the two center-ground parties in Ireland’s coalition government: Cabinet veteran Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael and sports hero Jim Gavin of Fianna Fáil. This marks the fewest candidates to qualify for a presidential ballot since Ireland’s watershed 1990 election, when Mary Robinson, a civil rights lawyer from the opposition Labour Party, became the first non-Fianna Fáil figure to win the presidency in a three-way contest. Connolly, an independent socialist with backing from both Labour and the main opposition Sinn Féin, will be hoping history repeats itself. Fine Gael, Ireland’s most pro-EU party, has never won a presidential election. But this time, all opinion polls have placed Humphreys in pole position, reflecting her reputation as a popular figure and canny campaigner in rural Ireland. That early consensus is backed by gambling markets, which rate the Fine Gaeler as the safest bet. Ireland’s president has no role in government but must sign all legislation before it can become law. This review power means that, in relatively rare cases, the president can refer legislation already approved by the parliament and government to the Supreme Court to determine whether it is constitutional.

DUBLIN — Sinn Féin will not seek Ireland’s presidency and instead will throw its weight behind an independent socialist candidate already in the race, the Irish republican party announced Saturday after weeks of behind-the-scenes tussling. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald — who had already ruled out running herself — said her party’s executive had voted to back Catherine Connolly in the Oct. 24 election to become Ireland’s next head of state. The endorsement of Sinn Féin, Ireland’s main opposition party, provides a big boost for Connolly, an opposition lawmaker from Galway who had already won backing from several other smaller left-wing parties. McDonald said Sinn Féin’s ruling executive had decided they didn’t want to split the anti-establishment vote by running their own candidate in competition with Connolly. She said Connolly was well placed to challenge the other two candidates in the field: Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael and Jim Gavin of Fianna Fáil. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have dominated Irish politics for the past century and are the main parties in Ireland’s current center-right government. McDonald said Sinn Féin’s priority was to deny Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael the presidency, a largely ceremonial post that has no role in government and since 2011 has been held by the opposition left. The incumbent, Michael D. Higgins of the left-wing Labour Party, is constitutionally barred from running for a third seven-year term. McDonald made the announcement alongside two other key Sinn Féin figures: Michelle O’Neill, who leads the cross-community government in the neighboring U.K. territory of Northern Ireland; and Pearse Doherty, Sinn Féin’s combative finance spokesman and deputy leader in the Irish parliament in Dublin. Doherty had been widely considered the most likely candidate, had Sinn Féin opted to run. “This is a big decision to support a candidate from outside our membership and work with the combined opposition to collectively take on the government — to give people a clear choice,” McDonald said. Connolly welcomed Sinn Féin’s support. She declined to confirm whether she had promised McDonald anything in return. Like Sinn Féin, she is ardently pro-Palestinian and is an outspoken critic of Israel’s war in Gaza, though this position is broadly shared across the Irish political spectrum. Last month, in an apparent bid to shore up support from Sinn Féin, Connolly traveled to Belfast and spoke approvingly of the Irish republicans’ ultimate goal — to reunify Ireland, ending its 104-year-old partition into a British north and an independent south. Connolly reinforced this message on Saturday, saying she “treasures” the Irish constitution’s aspiration “to unite all the people who share the territory of Ireland.”

BELFAST — Investigations into hundreds of bitterly disputed killings from Northern Ireland’s conflict could be reopened under a wide-ranging agreement published Friday by the British and Irish governments. Standing side by side, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn and Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris announced joint plans to create what, until now, has proved impossible — a fact-finding pathway for families scarred by bombings and shootings to find out, finally, who was to blame. The two leaders said the main goal was to help families finally get answers from a combination of new investigations, testimony from witnesses or participants in attacks, and reviews of long-secret government records. “Our shared duty is to ensure that trauma does not pass to another generation,” Harris said at the joint press conference with Benn at the U.K. secretary’s official Hillsborough Castle residence outside Belfast. The Legacy of the Troubles agreement covers the entire three decades of bloodshed over Northern Ireland that claimed more than 3,600 lives before the U.S.-mediated Good Friday peace accord of 1998. That death toll includes nearly 250 people killed in bombings and shootings in England and the Republic of Ireland. While ceasefires by the rival Irish Republican Army and so-called “loyalist” paramilitary gangs have largely held since the mid-1990s, veterans of those outlawed groups have refused to come forward to admit their role in specific atrocities. Their steely silence reflects, in part, a desire to avoid imprisonment for admitting crimes, as well as the risk that their victims could use any confessions to sue them for damages. The Provisional IRA, in particular, imposes a code of omerta — silence — on its members. NO IMMUNITY The strengthened fact-finding body being proposed in Friday’s plans, to be called the Legacy Commission, will not, however, offer conditional amnesties for ex-militants to come forward and tell the truth. That approach would have opened reputational dangers for both governments — because those militants might finally reveal the extent of their collusion with police, soldiers and intelligence puppet-masters. A range of British and Irish anti-terrorist agencies recruited and directed agents within all of the illegal groups — and, some victims’ groups contend, played a leading role in deciding who lived and died while maintaining their agents’ cover. The plans published Friday leave unclear the extent to which the new Legacy Commission will pursue investigations into allegations of state collusion with terrorists. It’s a can of worms that the U.K.’s previous Conservative government tried to bury for good with its own, unilateral Legacy Act that ended Troubles-era criminal investigations and judicial inquests. That 2023 law was drafted principally to shield former British soldiers from potential prosecution for decades-old killings. The Tory plan met universal opposition from all Northern Ireland parties and still faces a European lawsuit filed by the Republic of Ireland, which represents the interests of Irish nationalists north of the border. The Council of Europe condemned it, too. As part of Friday’s agreement, Benn and Harris stressed that new criminal prosecutions and civil lawsuits would remain live options alongside new, strengthened fact-finding bodies overseen by judges. That’s a difference from the approach originally envisaged in the Conservatives’ 2023 legislation. The fact-finding panel, officially formed last year, would have been empowered to offer former militants immunity from prosecution or civil lawsuit in exchange for sufficiently honest, revealing confessions to their victims. But a Belfast court quickly shot down that central immunity concept as illegal. Benn said offering immunity to ex-terrorists could never have won sufficient public support and “caused great pain and anguish to many people in Northern Ireland.” Any evidence uncovered by the Legacy Commission could be used for potential criminal cases in the future, he said. EQUAL PARTNERS Another key contrast between Friday’s intergovernmental pact and the previous Conservative legislation is that this plan is being billed as an equal partnership between London and Dublin — mirroring the level of trust and cooperation that delivered the Good Friday breakthrough. Harris called it “a night-and-day improvement” over the Tories’ legislation. Harris said his government has committed to providing previously off-limits access to its own records of Troubles atrocities. It will establish a dedicated  investigatory unit to support this work at the Dublin headquarters of Ireland’s national police force, the Garda Síochána. Friday’s commitments will require enabling legislation to be passed in Dublin as well as London, which will take several weeks at least. The Irish government is expected to drop its lawsuit against the U.K. as part of this process. Any Legacy Commission investigations will avoid duplicating the work of existing civil and criminal probes, including a fact-finding commission exploring the Real IRA car bombing of Omagh in 1998 and the murder trial of a British soldier involved in the Bloody Sunday massacre of 1972.

DUBLIN — Conor McGregor has quit without landing a blow in his doomed bid to become Ireland’s next president. The Dublin-born mixed martial arts fighter, who now spends much of his online time decrying immigration, long had vowed to win a place on the ballot for the Oct. 24 election. To become eligible, McGregor required official nominations from at least four of Ireland’s 31 councils. Yet, after months of huffing and puffing online, he didn’t even attempt to clear that low bar. Instead, he quit in an online missive Monday to avoid suffering a likely technical knockout at the hands of Dublin City Council. The council had been due to convene within hours to hear McGregor’s in-person appeal for their support. He had secured backing from only a few anti-immigration councilors, while dozens had pledged to reject him. The fighter had secured less, if any, support from other councils. Reflecting the lack of real-world seriousness of his campaign, McGregor didn’t even travel to Dublin and issued his submission statement from the United States. McGregor blamed “the straitjacket of an outdated Constitution” for his failure to get on the ballot. He didn’t mention the 2024 court judgment finding him civilly liable for raping a Dublin woman, nor his more recent failed effort to overturn that ruling using two withdrawn witnesses now being investigated for alleged perjury. Ireland’s 1937 constitution does require presidential candidates to secure nominations either from four councils or 20 members of the Oireachtas, Ireland’s two-chamber parliament. McGregor failed to win even a single nomination from Ireland’s 234 national lawmakers. However, McGregor’s bid for the Irish presidency — during which he won a visit to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House and was given copious long-distance support from X owner Elon Musk — likewise failed to garner any significant backing from the Irish public. The latest opinion poll, published Sunday in the Business Post, dumped McGregor into the humiliating “others” category with less than 2 percent support. It was an inglorious end for a candidate who, only a few days beforehand, claimed that “the great indigenous of Ireland” would be “swarmed” by foreigners unless he was elected president — a largely ceremonial post with no say in setting government policy. “I do not say it lightly nor do I say it braggadociously,” he wrote then. McGregor’s withdrawal — following similarly expected exits by Riverdance star Michael Flatley and disgraced ex-Prime Minister Bertie Ahern — leaves Ireland’s presidential election a three-horse race between Heather Humphreys of the governing Fine Gael party, the independent socialist Catherine Connolly and Jim Gavin of the other major government party, Fianna Fáil. But the field may grow more crowded ahead of the Sept. 24 cutoff for nominations. Several independent candidates are still seeking council nominations. A Catholic social conservative, anti-abortion campaigner Maria Steen, is also still trying to cobble together 20 votes from parliamentarians. And the main opposition Sinn Féin party is set to decide Saturday whether to run its own candidate or throw its weight behind Connolly.

DUBLIN — Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has ruled out running for Ireland’s presidency — and her Irish republican party might opt not to run a candidate at all. McDonald’s decision, announced Monday after months of speculation, could set the scene for Sinn Féin to throw its support behind the candidacy of independent socialist Catherine Connolly. She is one of only two confirmed candidates in the race to become Ireland’s next head of state in the Oct. 24 election. But some within the once-militant party are hoping, instead, for a surprise return of its former leader, Gerry Adams, who retired from politics in 2018 to be replaced by his hand-picked successor, McDonald. Sinn Féin leaders are meeting Monday in the Dublin suburb of Dún Laoghaire to discuss, behind closed doors, who — if anyone — should be their candidate. Ahead of that meeting, McDonald told RTÉ radio it wouldn’t be her — and stressed the party wouldn’t announce its decision until a final Sept. 20 meeting, four days before the nomination period closes. The 56-year-old McDonald said she must stay focused, as opposition leader in the Dáil Éireann parliament, on winning Ireland’s next general election. This may not happen until 2029. According to an opinion poll of the party’s own members, 17 percent had hoped to see McDonald, a Dubliner, run for president. The next most popular options were the 76-year-old Adams, the Belfast native who led Sinn Féin for 35 years; First Minister Michelle O’Neill, who leads the Northern Ireland government now; and McDonald’s deputy leader in the Dáil, Pearse Doherty, who hails from the republic’s northernmost county of Donegal. Sinn Féin finished a narrow third in last November’s election, leaving the two centrist establishment parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, in coalition government together. While McDonald said she didn’t want to prejudge the outcome of Sinn Féin’s internal debate, she pointedly praised Connolly for her strong anti-Israel and pro-Gaza views and her most recent comments, delivered in Belfast, on uniting Ireland. Like Connolly, Sinn Féin is ardently pro-Palestinian.

DUBLIN — Ireland will elect a new president on Oct. 24, the government has confirmed, as a sprawling field of potential candidates scrambles to secure a spot on the ballot. For now, independent socialist lawmaker Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys from the centrist government party Fine Gael are the only two confirmed candidates to become Ireland’s next head of state. Humphreys, a former government minister, stepped in quickly following her party’s surprise loss of its expected candidate, EU luminary Mairead McGuinness. But the field could quickly become crowded. Candidates have two potential routes to get their name on the ballot paper: by winning support from at least 20 national lawmakers or from at least four of the country’s 31 local councils. Lawmakers from the other major government party, Fianna Fáil, will be asked to choose next week between two candidates: veteran lawmaker Billy Kelleher or Dublin’s former Gaelic football manager Jim Gavin. Prime Minister Micheál Martin, the Fianna Fáil chief, is publicly backing Gavin, a political newcomer who led Dublin to a record five straight All-Ireland championships. But backbenchers are grumbling that Kelleher — a Cork lawmaker from 1997 to 2019 and, since then, an MEP — is more deserving. They’ll decide in a secret ballot set for Tuesday night. The biggest unknown is whether Sinn Féin, the main opposition party, will run a candidate or back Connolly, who shares Sinn Féin’s focus on the Palestinian cause. Sinn Féin has already dismissed suggestions it could back another potential candidate, singer and human rights activist Bob Geldof. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, the party chief since 2018, hasn’t ruled out running. The party’s lawmakers are set to meet behind closed doors on Sept. 20 to decide, just four days before the deadline for nominations. Others trying to be listed on the ballot paper stand little to no chance of winning sufficient support from members of Dáil Éireann, Ireland’s two-chamber parliament. Instead they would need to win an official endorsement from at least four city or county councils, a lower bar for political outsiders. The hopefuls already lobbying councillors include mixed martial arts fighter Conor McGregor, former Riverdance star Michael Flatley, pharma entrepreneur Gareth Sheridan, retired weather forecaster Joanna Donnelly, anti-abortion campaigner Maria Steen, immigration critic Nick Delehanty and former Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who has been stuck in political purgatory ever since his murky personal finances were exposed by a public tribunal in 2008. Given the lack of a confirmed field, Irish media organizations have yet to conduct any detailed polling on the likely outcome. But Ireland’s bookmakers are already taking bets and list the ex-football manager, Gavin, as the early favorite, followed by Fine Gael’s Humphreys. Connolly and McDonald are rated as distant 10-to-1 outsiders, though the Sinn Féin leader’s odds would surely narrow should she choose to run.