Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music This European Council summit was meant to be different — when Europe finally got serious about boosting homegrown industry and driving its own destiny without reacting to Donald Trump. But it was not to be. POLITICO’s Zoya Sheftalovich, Nick Vinocur and Zia Weise join EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton for late-night analysis of the response to high energy prices fueled by the war in Iran and the growing rage at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.  That’s followed by Anne McElvoy’s exclusive interview with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, who suggested both Iran and Israel may have committed war crimes for attacking energy infrastructure — and offered a warning about the challenge of clearing the Strait of Hormuz. Send any questions or comments to us on our WhatsApp: +32 491 05 06 29. 

BRUSSELS — United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said Thursday there are “reasonable grounds” to believe both sides in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran may have committed war crimes, as attacks and retaliatory strikes on energy facilities intensify. Speaking exclusively to POLITICO on a visit to Brussels before Thursday’s European Council summit, Guterres said: “If there are attacks either on Iran or from Iran on energy infrastructure, I think that there are reasonable grounds to think that they might constitute a war crime.”  Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars natural gas field on Wednesday, then Tehran launched a retaliatory strike on a major energy complex in Qatar. Beyond that, Guterres said the growing civilian casualties left both sides in the conflict open to possible war crimes charges. “I don’t see any difference. It doesn’t matter who targets civilians. It is totally unacceptable,” he said. Representatives for the U.S. and Israeli governments did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Guterres’ remarks. America and Israel began a bombing campaign on Feb. 28, killing Iran’s supreme leader and sparking ongoing retaliatory missile-and-drone attacks from Tehran on sites across the Middle East. Having called for deescalation in the region, Guterres appeared to blame Israel for driving the conflict forward, and called on U.S. President Donald Trump to persuade Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to bring it to an end. “The war needs to stop … and I believe that it is in the hands of the U.S. to make it stop. It is possible [to end the war], but it depends on the political will to do it,” Guterres told host Anne McElvoy for an episode of the EU Confidential podcast publishing Friday morning. “I am convinced that Israel, as a strategy, wants to achieve a total destruction of the military capacity of Iran and regime change. And I believe Iran has a strategy, which is to resist for as much time as possible and to cause as much harm as possible. So the key to solve the problem is that the U.S. decides to claim that they have done their job. “President Trump will be able to convince … those that need to be convinced that the work is done. That the work can end,” Guterres added. The secretary-general also attributed America’s decision to launch strikes on Iran to Israel. “I have no doubt that this was something that corresponds to Israel’s strategy … to draw the United States into a war. That objective was achieved. But this is creating dramatic suffering in Iran, [and] in the region, even in Israel. And it is creating a devastating impact in the global economy and whose consequences are still too early to foresee. So, we absolutely must end this conflict,” he said. But finding an off-ramp might prove difficult, and relations between the U.N. and the Trump administration remain frosty.   Asked if he had spoken with Trump since the conflict began three weeks ago, Guterres responded emphatically: “No, no, no … I speak with those I need to speak to. But this is not a soap opera.” He claimed, however, to have been “in contact with all sides,” including with the Trump administration, since hostilities spread across the Gulf.  “It’s vital for the world at large that this war ends quickly,” Guterres said. “This is indeed spiraling out of control and the recent attacks represent an escalation that is extremely dangerous.” Trump said on his Truth Social site that the U.S. had not authorized the attack by Israel on the South Pars site, and that Israel had “violently lashed out,” raising questions about how much influence the U.S. has over its ally. “My hope is that the United States will be able to understand that this has gone too far,” Guterres said. The conflict was primarily benefitting Russia, Guterres added, with Moscow welcoming the distraction from its own war on Ukraine. “Russia is the biggest beneficiary of the Iran crisis,” Guterres said. “Russia is the country that is gaining more with what’s happening in this horrible disaster. Russia is already the winner.” Meanwhile, European leaders, including U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have said they won’t be sending ships to the Persian Gulf in response to Trump’s appeal for help to open the Strait of Hormuz. France has said it will only contribute support vessels “when the situation is calmer.” Guterres applauded the restraint shown by the Europeans, despite Trump’s anger at their refusal to actively support the war or help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime artery that Iran has largely sealed off, driving up global energy prices. “I think these countries made their own reading of the situation, and I believe they took a decision not to get too much involved, knowing that the most important objective is the deescalation,” he said. Listen to the full episode of EU Confidential on Friday morning.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music The mixed messages by U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration about how long the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran will last have unnerved allies and shaken European markets. Two weeks into the conflict, EU capitals are asking when it will end and how they can influence what comes next — none more so than Berlin. In this week’s episode, host Anne McElvoy talks to a key ally of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen. A longstanding member of the Bundestag, a former chair of its Foreign Affairs Committee and a minister in Angela Merkel’s government, Röttgen is a strong believer in the Atlantic alliance.   He urges European leaders to speak with one voice on the war in Iran — and give qualified backing to the American-led strikes. We Europeans have to put our act together in order to be a relevant actor,” he tells Anne. “We are past the old post-war order. We have not seen the establishment of a new order … and if we are to give up on the United States, we are to give up on the West.” **A message from Neste: The world needs to keep moving, but with reduced emissions. Neste’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel are available today. Let’s fuel change. Learn more at neste.com/change.**

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music For decades, Europeans shared a simple belief: that the world — however messy — ultimately runs on rules. But what if the escalating war in Iran shows that these rules no longer apply? In this episode of EU Confidential, host Sarah Wheaton speaks to two foreign affairs experts who help unpack how the ongoing crisis in the Middle East impacts Europe. Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations and author of the forthcoming book “Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail,” argues the Iranian conflict is a good example of a world increasingly defined by “un-order.” Meanwhile, Rym Momtaz, editor-in-chief of Strategic Europe at Carnegie Europe and a longtime observe of European and Middle East politics, helps us understand Europe’s response to the U.S.-Israeli strikes in a wider geopolitical context. If you have thoughts or questions about the podcast, you can reach us on our WhatsApp: +32 491 05 06 29. **A message from Neste: The world needs to keep moving, but with reduced emissions. Neste’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel are available today. Let’s fuel change. Learn more at neste.com/change.**

The EU’s envoy to Kyiv accused Moscow of war crimes, describing the “humanitarian calamity” unfolding as Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure leave some hundreds of thousands of people without heat amid sub-zero temperatures. “Let’s make it very clear — this has been really a war crime to hit and freeze people in their own homes, ordinary civilians,” EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernová said in an interview. Mathernová’s accusations on POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast last week mark some of the strongest to date from an EU official since Russian President Vladimir Putin began a winter siege on Ukraine’s electric grid. Yet the diplomat, in post since September 2023, is known for her unvarnished descriptions of Ukrainians’ daily struggles on social media and a rigorous accounting — laced with righteous anger — of Russian attacks. As the full-scale invasion grinds toward the end of its fourth year on Tuesday, Mathernová’s mission is as much about sharing Ukrainians’ perspective with the EU as it is transmitting Brussels’ lines to Kyiv. Russia’s systematic bombardment of energy plants has turned the Ukrainian capital into a “frontline city,” she said, describing a city dotted with thousands of Red Cross tents offering tea, phone charging stations and even cots to ride out frigid nights. “Kids do homework there,” she said. “People telework or simply come to get warm.” She pointed to a particularly ruinous attack on Feb. 3, when Russia fired five ballistic rockets that destroyed one of Kyiv’s largest thermal power plants. That left some 350,000 without heat, with temperatures dropping as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius. Mathernová is fighting against an “information fog” that has obscured Kyiv’s acute plight, she said from her office in the capital — before the interview itself was interrupted by an air raid siren. That occurrence has become so commonplace that she displayed more concern about the audio quality than her own safety. The EU’s embassy in Kyiv was itself bombed last summer, and nights punctuated by sirens leave everyone from government officials and foreign diplomats to everyday Ukrainians with the cumulative damage from sleep deprivation. “I think we all suffer from PTSD by now,” she said. UKRAINE IN THE EU ‘HOUSE’ Yet amid this inhumane grind, Mathernová is optimistic that the prospect of some form of EU membership in 2027 could keep Ukrainians’ resolve intact. As POLITICO reported this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated the idea of “reverse enlargement” to guarantee Ukraine’s spot in the EU, even if it hasn’t met all the accession criteria — or if it faces a persistent block from Hungary. The EU “has always been very creative in terms of finding legal and institutional workarounds to difficult situations historically,” she said, pointing to the “variable geometry” of systems like Schengen and the eurozone, which include some full EU members but not all. Mathernová offered an analogy of Ukraine being brought into a house, “not all the rooms in the house being available immediately at the outset.” They could continue working “with the ultimate goal of having a full membership.” She added: “My understanding is that this is what colleagues in Brussels are working on.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently ruled out anything less than equal EU membership, saying in November that “it has to be fully fledged.” However, Mathernová predicted Ukrainians would accept such an arrangement “if we don’t let various narratives and disinformation about it, like this is not a full membership, etc.,” take hold. “I think if it’s a matter of anchoring Ukraine in the EU as part of its peaceful future, I’m sure they would.” Yet just days after the interview, Mathernová was back to documenting Ukraine’s violent present. On Facebook, with a video of her standing in the snow, she detailed a new overnight toll: 345 drones 50 missiles of various kinds 12 ballistic missiles used just against Kyiv!

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music An air raid siren sounded as we were wrapping up our interview with the EU’s ambassador in Kyiv. On this week’s EU Confidential, Sarah Wheaton speaks with Katarína Mathernová about what it means to live — and work — in a city under near-constant Russian threat. From bombardments, freezing temperatures and winter blackouts to EU accession hopes, we ask how Ukraine is holding up as another February anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion approaches. Later, Sarah is joined by POLITICO’s defense editor Jan Cienski to unpack a debate gaining momentum across Europe: whether the continent needs to rethink its ultimate deterrent as long-held security assumptions begin to shift. **A message from Neste: The world needs to keep moving, but with reduced emissions. Neste’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel are available today. Let’s fuel change. Learn more at neste.com/change.**

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music European leaders have spent the week talking about how to make the EU more competitive — first with industry heavyweights in Antwerp, then behind closed doors at a leaders’ retreat in Belgium. On this episode of EU Confidential, host Sarah Wheaton digs into what’s really behind the latest push to revive Europe’s economy. Are calls for deregulation and lower energy costs a genuine course correction — or another round of diagnosis without delivery? POLITICO’s Zia Weise, fresh from the industry summit in Antwerp, joins the discussion on how chemical giants and other industrial players are pressing for relief from climate and energy rules. Marianne Gros examines the backlash over Brussels’ simplification drive and growing concerns about transparency and democratic safeguards. And Carlo Martuscelli breaks down the political fault lines exposed at the Alden Biesen retreat — and why so much of Mario Draghi’s reform agenda remains stalled. Plus, Aitor Hernández-Morales joins us with the latest on political developments in Portugal.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music European leaders and defense ministers gathering at the Munich Security Conference are grappling with how to end the war in Ukraine as it approaches its fourth anniversary. But do they have any influence on how and when it might end — and on whose terms? In this bonus episode of EU Confidential, host Anne McElvoy talks to Ebba Busch, Sweden’s deputy prime minister and energy minister, who is calling for a more robust stance against Russia and insists that “Europe must now lead itself, not wait for American leadership or even wait for EU institutions.” She argues that “Europe has to be saved from itself” in becoming more agile and not being slowed down by an increasingly powerful bureaucracy. Busch’s Christian Democrats formed a coalition with other right-leaning parties, marking a shift in Sweden’s political landscape and defending conservative values on issues from immigration to energy security. Busch has also emerged onto the wider European stage, but can her forthright brand of politics make a difference in Brussels?

European leaders must “toughen up” and lead the continent, rather than wait for direction from the U.S. or even the EU institutions, Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch said. In an interview with the EU Confidential podcast on the eve of the Munich Security Conference, Busch, who leads the Christian Democrats in Sweden’s center-right coalition government, added: “Europe has to be saved from itself” by becoming more agile and not being slowed down by an increasingly powerful bureaucracy. She said that instead, European leaders need to “toughen up and need to stop waiting for the Commission to take a lead” on deregulation, competitiveness and promoting energy security through new nuclear energy. Despite expressing her admiration for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Busch had strong words of criticism for the EU institutions. “The European Union was built for stability, not for speed,” she said. “We need to make sure that we are building strong democracies and not very large bureaucracies,” she added, because the latter are eroding the bloc’s public legitimacy. “That’s why we lost our British friends, and that is why we’re also now seeing long-term support for the union being undermined in a lot of member states.” Busch said member states need to take the initiative in certain areas, rather than Brussels. “Just look at the commitment of cutting our dependence on Russian gas, for example, after the full-scale invasion [of Ukraine]. It took until the Energy Council in Luxembourg last October before we made the final decisions. And then we’re still waiting a few more years [for them to be implemented].” It’s a warning she’s repeated before: Following weeks of tension after President Donald Trump’s threat to annex Greenland from Denmark, Busch advised her EU counterparts to follow the lead of Nordic and Baltic states in boosting defense and energy security. As EU leaders meet today in Belgium to discuss the bloc’s future, it remains to be seen whether they will heed her advice. Busch warned that Europe is at a “crossroads now, not only in words, but in action” as the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary. Asked why the Trump administration is sidelining Europe in the peace talks, Busch said: “This is the reason why Europe needs to be respected in its own strength and unity, because it’s very apparent that the Trump administration has become increasingly unpredictable and is not very impressed by our slow and steady institutions.” She added: “The president does not respond well to weakness.” An emerging figure with forthright views on the European stage, Busch is no stranger to controversy at home. She has argued that extremist forms of Islam have no place in Swedish society and criticized pro-Palestinian protestors for threatening freedom of speech after protesting outside ministerial offices.   This week, the Swedish government has proposed toughening the rules on deportations of foreign criminals and is calling on other European countries to overhaul international conventions — particularly the UNHCR — that can limit the scope of such deportations. “If you look at where we’ve seen gun violence and predominantly the gang violence in Sweden, it has been in areas where we have a high degree of migrants,” Busch said, adding that even migrant communities now say “someone is actually fighting for Swedish values and Swedish law to apply to me.” Listen to the full interview on EU Confidential here.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Can the European Union really decouple from Donald Trump’s America — economically, politically, and strategically? In this episode of EU Confidential, host Sarah Wheaton speaks with Mateusz Morawiecki, former Polish prime minister and president of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party about his call for an “Economic NATO,” an even stronger economic and political alliance between the EU, the U.S. and others as counterbalance to China and Russia. His vision goes against a mainstream trend we’re observing across European capitals as they seek to decouple from Trump’s America. To explain what this EU-U.S. divorce looks like in practice, Sarah is joined by Zoya Sheftalovich, POLITICO’s Chief EU correspondent. Plus, some exciting news, we introduce the Brussels Playbook Podcast, our new daily show launching next week.