BRUSSELS — Russia’s drones and agents are unleashing attacks across NATO countries and Europe is now doing what would have seemed outlandish just a few years ago: planning how to hit back. Ideas range from joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, and faster and more coordinated attribution of hybrid attacks by quickly pointing the finger at Moscow, to surprise NATO-led military exercises, according to two senior European government officials and three EU diplomats. “The Russians are constantly testing the limits — what is the response, how far can we go?” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže noted in an interview. A more “proactive response is needed,” she told POLITICO. “And it’s not talking that sends a signal — it’s doing.” Russian drones have buzzed Poland and Romania in recent weeks and months, while mysterious drones have caused havoc at airports and military bases across the continent. Other incidents include GPS jamming, incursions by fighter aircraft and naval vessels, and an explosion on a key Polish rail link ferrying military aid to Ukraine. “Overall, Europe and the alliance must ask themselves how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare … [and] whether we should consider becoming more active ourselves in this area,” German State Secretary for Defense Florian Hahn told Welt TV last week. Hybrid attacks are nothing new. Russia has in recent years sent assassins to murder political enemies in the U.K., been accused of blowing up arms storage facilities in Central Europe, attempted to destabilize the EU by financing far-right political parties, engaged in social media warfare, and tried to upend elections in countries like Romania and Moldova. But the sheer scale and frequency of the current attacks are unprecedented. Globsec, a Prague-based think tank, calculated there were more than 110 acts of sabotage and attempted attacks carried out in Europe between January and July, mainly in Poland and France, by people with links to Moscow. “Today’s world offers a much more open — indeed, one might say creative — space for foreign policy,” Russian leader Vladimir Putin said during October’s Valdai conference, adding: “We are closely monitoring the growing militarization of Europe. Is it just rhetoric, or is it time for us to respond?” Russia may see the EU and NATO as rivals or even enemies — former Russian President and current deputy Kremlin Security Council head Dmitry Medvedev last month said: “The U.S. is our adversary.” However, Europe does not want war with a nuclear-armed Russia and so has to figure out how to respond in a way that deters Moscow but does not cross any Kremlin red lines that could lead to open warfare. That doesn’t mean cowering, according to Swedish Chief of Defense Gen. Michael Claesson. “We cannot allow ourselves to be fearful and have a lot of angst for escalation,” he said in an interview. “We need to be firm.” So far, the response has been to beef up defenses. After Russian war drones were shot down over Poland, NATO said it would boost the alliance’s drone and air defenses on its eastern flank — a call mirrored by the EU. Even that is enraging Moscow. Europeans “should be afraid and tremble like dumb animals in a herd being driven to the slaughter,” said Medvedev. “They should soil themselves with fear, sensing their near and agonizing end.” SWITCHING GEARS Frequent Russian provocations are changing the tone in European capitals. After deploying 10,000 troops to protect Poland’s critical infrastructure following the sabotage of a rail line linking Warsaw and Kyiv, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Friday accused Moscow of engaging in “state terrorism.” After the incident, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said such threats posed an “extreme danger” to the bloc, arguing it must “have a strong response” to the attacks. Last week, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto slammed the continent’s “inertia” in the face of growing hybrid attacks and unveiled a 125-page plan to retaliate. In it he suggested establishing a European Center for Countering Hybrid Warfare, a 1,500-strong cyber force, as well as military personnel specialized in artificial intelligence. “Everybody needs to revise their security procedures,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski added on Thursday. “Russia is clearly escalating its hybrid war against EU citizens.” WALK THE TALK Despite the increasingly fierce rhetoric, what a more muscular response means is still an open question. Part of that is down to the difference between Moscow and Brussels — the latter is more constrained by acting within the rules, according to Kevin Limonier, a professor and deputy director at the Paris-based GEODE think tank. “This raises an ethical and philosophical question: Can states governed by the rule of law afford to use the same tools … and the same strategies as the Russians?” he asked. So far, countries like Germany and Romania are strengthening rules that would allow authorities to shoot down drones flying over airports and militarily sensitive objects. National security services, meanwhile, can operate in a legal gray zone. Allies from Denmark to the Czech Republic already allow offensive cyber operations. The U.K. reportedly hacked into ISIS’s networks to obtain information on an early-stage drone program by the terrorist group in 2017. Allies must “be more proactive on the cyber offensive,” said Braže, and focus on “increasing situational awareness — getting security and intelligence services together and coordinated.” In practice, countries could use cyber methods to target systems critical to Russia’s war effort, like the Alabuga economic zone in Tatarstan in east-central Russia, where Moscow is producing Shahed drones, as well as energy facilities or trains carrying weapons, said Filip Bryjka, a political scientist and hybrid threat expert at the Polish Academy of Sciences. “We could attack the system and disrupt their functioning,” he said. Europe also has to figure out how to respond to Russia’s large-scale misinformation campaigns with its own efforts inside the country. “Russian public opinion … is somewhat inaccessible,” said one senior military official. “We need to work with allies who have a fairly detailed understanding of Russian thinking — this means that cooperation must also be established in the field of information warfare.” Still, any new measures “need to have plausible deniability,” said one EU diplomat. SHOW OF FORCE NATO, for its part, is a defensive organization and so is leery of offensive operations. “Asymmetric responses are an important part of the conversation,” said one NATO diplomat, but “we aren’t going to stoop to the same tactics as Russia.” Instead, the alliance should prioritize shows of force that illustrate strength and unity, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and fellow with London’s Royal United Services Institute think tank. In practice, that means rapidly announcing whether Moscow is behind a hybrid attack and running ‘no-notice’ military exercises on the Russian border with Lithuania or Estonia. Meanwhile, the NATO-backed Centre of Excellence on Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, which brings together allied officials, is also “providing expertise and training” and drafting “policies to counter those threats,” said Maarten ten Wolde, a senior analyst at the organization.  “Undoubtedly, more should be done on hybrid,” said one senior NATO diplomat, including increasing collective attribution after attacks and making sure to “show through various means that we pay attention and can shift assets around in a flexible way.” Jacopo Barigazzi, Nicholas Vinocur, Nette Nöstlinger, Antoaneta Roussi and Seb Starvecic contributed reporting.

BUCHAREST — NATO chief Mark Rutte on Wednesday played down a U.S. announcement that it was withdrawing hundreds of troops from Romania just as the alliance grapples with an increasing number of suspected Russian hybrid attacks. Washington had said last week it would redeploy an infantry brigade of around 700 troops back to Kentucky from Romania, as the Pentagon reorients its focus to domestic priorities like border protection and the Indo-Pacific region. “This happens all the time … please don’t read too much into that,” Rutte told POLITICO at a press conference. “Wherever and whenever needed we can always scale up collectively, including in Romania.” “In Europe and Romania, the American presence is more powerful than in 2020,” echoed Romanian President Nicușor Dan, speaking from a vast marbled Union Hall in Bucharest’s sprawling Cotroceni Palace. “So there is no concern, no worry.” The comments come as the alliance faces escalating airspace violations and hybrid attacks. Russian drones have been intercepted and shot down over Poland in recent months while another Russian drone was tracked over Romania; drones of unknown origin have disrupted air traffic at airports in Denmark, Norway and Germany. In response to the incursions, NATO has agreed to deploy more warplanes and air defense systems to frontline countries in a new program called “Eastern Sentry.” Rutte suggested the new deployments could also help fill any gap left by U.S. withdrawals. “With this Eastern Sentry, we can bring more capabilities to bear wherever and whenever needed … also in Romania,” he said. “This military activity not only adds additional assets from allies, it also better connects the range of assets already available all along our eastern flank,” Rutte added. The alliance is also currently carrying out beefed-up military exercises in Romania, the NATO chief said. Allies are scaling up participating troops “from 1,500 to over 5,000 troops so that we are able, whenever necessary, to immediately get all the troops in Romania needed,” Rutte argued. The U.S. has around 85,000 troops in Europe including 20,000 that were deployed after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The announced pullback, which would leave around 1,000 U.S. soldiers in Romania, will include forces stationed at Romania’s eastern Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base, a key hub for the alliance’s operations on the Black Sea. NATO allies including Norway and the U.K. on Wednesday also downplayed Washington’s announcement, even as senior Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Senate and House cried foul over the move. But Rutte insisted the alliance was ready to defend Bucharest — whether the troops are rotated out or stay put. “We can bring more capabilities where needed, but … if this country would be under attack, it is 31 other nations coming to the rescue of Romania,” he said, adding: “This makes us unbeatable — absolutely unbeatable — and that is why I believe that nobody will ever try.”

BERLIN — A joint military exercise in Bavaria went badly wrong this week after a German soldier was shot and wounded by police officers who mistook him for an armed threat, authorities said Thursday. The incident occurred Wednesday evening in the town of Erding, northeast of Munich, when police received an emergency call reporting “a man with a long gun,” according to the Bavarian police. Officers responding to the call surrounded the area and, amid what officials later described as a “miscommunication,” opened fire. “It was a communication failure,” a police spokesperson told the German press agency dpa, adding that the local police were unaware that a Bundeswehr training exercise was taking place in the area. The soldier, who was participating in a drill simulating combat during wartime, was hit and lightly injured. He was treated in hospital and released later that night, police said. The shooting happened during “Marshal Power,” a large-scale defense exercise involving several hundred soldiers across 12 Bavarian districts. The Bundeswehr said the drill was meant to test coordination between soldiers, police, firefighters and rescue services in a mock national defense scenario. According to Bild, the Bundeswehr’s military police may have fired training blanks at the responding officers, apparently mistaking them for part of the ongoing drill. The police, unaware of the exercise, allegedly returned fire with live ammunition, injuring the soldier. The police confirmed that the local units had not been involved in planning the drill and were unaware that armed personnel would be active in the area that day. “We are now intensively examining where the communication broke down,” a police spokesperson said. The Bavarian state criminal police and prosecutors in Landshut have opened an investigation into the incident. Bavaria’s Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann, who oversees the Bavarian police, has not yet commented publicly.

When Vladimir Putin sent at least 19 drones into Poland last week, the Russian president was delivering a message: He’s not planning to end his war against the West anytime soon. The Russian incursion into NATO airspace follows weeks of aerial attacks in Ukraine that killed dozens of civilians, damaged buildings housing the EU and British delegations and struck for the first time a government building in central Kyiv.  Far from being ready to strike a peace deal with Ukraine under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin has pegged his political survival to a simmering conflict with the United States and its allies. “Putin is the president of war,” said Nikolai Petrov, a senior analyst at the London-based New Eurasian Strategies Center. “He has no interest in ending it.” Having fashioned himself as a wartime leader, going back to being a peacetime president would be tantamount to a demotion. “No matter what the conditions are, he cannot give up that role,” Petrov said.  As Putin’s full-scale assault on Ukraine drags toward its fourth year, the Russian president arguably has the most cause for optimism since the early days of the war when the Kremlin hoped to capture the country in a matter of days. With Ukrainian forces hamstrung by a lack of weapons and manpower, Russia has been grinding deeper into the country.  But Moscow’s progress has been slow — and costly. The Kremlin’s armed forces have suffered an estimated one million casualties and the conflict has taken its toll on the Russian economy, which threatens to tip into recession. And yet, politically, ending the conflict comes with risks. The Kremlin’s tight control over the media and the internet would likely allow it to sell a peace deal to most Russians as a victory. But that’s not who the Russian president will be worrying about. With Russia’s liberal opposition decimated, a small but vocal group of nationalists now presents the biggest threat to his rule, said Petrov. And he has promised them a grandiose victory, not only over Ukraine but over what the Kremlin calls “the collective West.” “There’s a desire among the hawkish part of the military-political establishment to destroy NATO,” Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told DW’s Russian service. “To show NATO is worthless.” Since Putin met with Trump in Alaska last month in what the U.S. president had touted as a summit dedicated to striking a ceasefire, Moscow has ramped up its campaign of hybrid warfare against Europe, according to military analysts.  Before Wednesday’s incursion, Russian drones had repeatedly ventured into Polish airspace from neighboring Belarus, circling cities before turning back. In August, a Russian drone crashed some 100 kilometers southwest of Warsaw.  According to WELT, a sister publication of POLITICO in the Axel Springer Group, five of the drones that crossed into Poland were on a direct flight path toward a NATO base before being intercepted by Dutch Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets. In an opinion piece published two days before the drones crossed into Poland, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, accused Helsinki of planning an attack, threatening that any assault “could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood — once and for all.”  Analysts noted the article’s rhetoric resembled the Kremlin’s talking points ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow has also begun to shift vital industries, including shipbuilding, to the east of the country, away from its border with NATO, Petrov pointed out. On Friday, Russia began carrying out large-scale military exercises with Belarus, including just across the Polish border. The exercises are expected to conclude on Tuesday. “Whatever Putin achieves in Ukraine, the confrontation with the West will not end there; it will continue in various forms,” said Petrov. “Including militarily.” With actions like the incursion into Poland, Putin is issuing a warning to Trump and European leaders discussing providing security guarantees for Kyiv after a potential peace deal, said Kirill Rogov, founder of the think tank Re:Russia. “Putin showed that he can attack NATO countries today and they have no defense systems in place,” he said. Trump’s mixed signaling on his commitment to NATO and his unwillingness to stick to his own deadlines when it comes to imposing sanctions on Moscow give Putin the confidence that he can get away with it. For the Russian president, “it’s now or never,” Baunov added. Incursions like the one in Poland are intended to chip away at the Western military alliance’s commitment to collective defense, with small offensives that test NATO’s willingness to respond. The hope, said Baunov, is to reveal the military alliance as a toothless tiger. So far, the reaction from Washington has fed into those fears.  On Thursday, Trump echoed Moscow’s talking points, telling reporters that “it could have been a mistake.”  The Kremlin has dismissed accusations that the drones were a deliberate provocation. The Russian defense ministry said there “had been no plans to target facilities” in Poland.  Belarus, which served as a launchpad for some of the drones according to Polish officials, said the incursion could have been the result of a mishap due to “electronic jamming.” “This is typical Putin-style trolling and probing,” said Rogov. “He likes things to be ambivalent so that they can be interpreted either as deliberate or accidental.”

Poland will shut its border with Belarus at midnight on Thursday in response to a major Russian military exercise, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Tuesday. Moscow holds the Zapad exercise, a joint drill with Kremlin-allied Belarus, roughly every four years to simulate a clash with NATO countries in Eastern Europe. Tusk said the “very aggressive” drills had prompted Warsaw’s decision to shut the border with Belarus. “We are facing a growing number of provocations from Russia and Belarus,” he added. The war games, running Sept. 12–16, will involve tens of thousands of Russian and Belarusian troops in maneuvers close to Poland and Lithuania. Some drills — near the Belarusian village of Gozha and in the Russian exclave Kaliningrad’s Dobrovolsk — will take place just a few dozen kilometers away from the NATO countries’ borders. Russian and Belarusian troops will also practice planning to use Oreshnik nuclear-capable missile systems. Tusk said a key “target” of the drills is the Suwałki Gap, the NATO-controlled, 70-kilometer choke point separating Belarus and Kaliningrad that Russia would need to take over in the event of an all-out war. It is not the first time Poland has clamped down on its border with Belarus. Warsaw has shut border checkpoints in recent years amid mounting tensions with Minsk and last year suspended access to asylum for migrants crossing into the country via Belarus, accusing the country of orchestrating a crisis on the Polish border as a form of hybrid warfare.  

Russia’s neighbors are preparing for a nervous few days next week when the Kremlin holds its Zapad 2025 war games along with its ally Belarus, its first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The drills, running Sept. 12–16, will have some maneuvers taking place close to Poland and Lithuania as the Kremlin practices for a possible clash with NATO forces. “We must take the exercises near NATO and EU borders seriously; both the bordering countries and NATO itself are treating them with the utmost seriousness,” said Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Godliauskas. “Lithuania and our allies are prepared, united, and will closely monitor developments, ready to respond if necessary.” In response, NATO countries bordering Russia are holding their own war games. Tarassis 25 involves 10 Northern European NATO countries, while Lithuania will hold its own Thunder Strike national defense exercise. Poland holds its Iron Defender-25, with 30,000 troops taking part, this week. “Poland will respond to the Zapad 2025 exercises … in an appropriate manner on the Polish side,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk told Polish broadcaster RMF.  Russia has been running Zapad exercises roughly every four years since 1999, and anxiety about them is something of a tradition. Although they are formally defensive drills, the one in 2009 simulated a nuclear attack on Warsaw and the 2021 exercise led to a massive buildup of forces in Belarus that were used months later to attack Ukraine. With growing alarm in NATO that Russia might add to its ongoing war with Ukraine by attacking an alliance member — possibly in the Baltics — NATO is watching very carefully to see if Zapad gives any clues about a future Russian offensive, said Tomas Janeliūnas, professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science. Western observers will use Zapad to gauge the readiness of the Russian military three years after it attacked Ukraine — a war that has cost Russia over a million casualties and destroyed vast amounts of equipment but also ramped up Russia’s war economy. “NATO monitors Russia’s military activity very closely. We do not see any immediate military threat against any NATO Ally. Nevertheless, we remain vigilant,” the alliance said in a written comment. Russia has been running Zapad exercises roughly every four years since 1999, and anxiety about them is something of a tradition. | Tatiana Zenkovich/EPA Zapad organizers claim their drills will not exceed 13,000 personnel, and Belarus has said it is inviting observers from NATO countries as well as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Russian and Belarusian troops will also practice planning to use Oreshnik nuclear-capable missile systems. Russia is also running three other separate exercises with Collective Security Treaty Organization countries — masking the true size of the drills, said the German Council on Foreign Relations. (The CSTO includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.) “The scenarios of these exercises are expected to indicate the type of warfare Russia is preparing for against the West,” it said. The Zapad exercise will cover Russia’s Moscow and Leningrad military districts, the Kaliningrad exclave, the Arctic region, the Baltic and Barents seas and Belarus. Some drills — near the Belarusian village of Gozha and in Kaliningrad’s Dobrovolsk — will take place just a few dozen kilometers from Poland and Lithuania. Troops will also be positioned on both sides of the Suwałki Gap, the 70-kilometer corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad widely seen as one of Europe’s most vulnerable defense bottlenecks. Lithuania’s military intelligence expects that up to 30,000 soldiers will participate in Zapad— far less than in 2021, which saw around 200,000 soldiers take part. That is far from what Russia would need to attack a NATO member, especially as the war in Ukraine is ongoing, Janeliūnas said. ESCALATION RISK However, Moscow could use the drills to test NATO’s reaction to provocations such as airspace violations, cyberattacks or even sabotage of civilian infrastructure — gauging how quickly allies respond and whether they pin responsibility on Russia. That raises the danger of escalation. “It is entirely possible that certain coinciding signals could be interpreted as an actual attack on NATO countries,” Janeliūnas said. “One has to understand a simple fact: During military exercises, when weapons are ready … it is often difficult to distinguish simulation from real military action.” But Godliauskas said Lithuania is capable of differentiating threats. “We have the ability to observe and respond, and to distinguish between an accident and a real threat,” he said. Despite that, Godliauskas said, “it’s unrealistic to expect a zero probability of air incursions.” Two drones entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus in July, and the country recently closed its airspace along the Belarus border until Oct. 1. 

LONDON — As demonstrations of friendship go, it doesn’t get much more heavyweight than this. The HMS Prince of Wales — a Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carrier weighing 65,000 tonnes — docked in Darwin, Australia this week ahead of a meeting between the foreign and defense ministers of Britain and Australia. This display of military pomp has a clear purpose, as Britain and Australia seek to demonstrate their wholehearted commitment to the AUKUS program, a trilateral initiative with the U.S. aimed at warding off China’s growing influence. Under a multibillion-dollar deal agreed between the three countries in 2021, they will jointly develop nuclear-powered submarines and produce transformative new weapons. But the partnership suffered a jolt when Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, who has been critical of AUKUS in the past, launched a surprise review of the entire treaty this spring. While the summit between British and Australian ministers is an annual occurrence, there is little doubt it is being used to reassure the U.S. at a particularly sensitive time. An Australian diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said that “how to handle [the implications of the Colby review] will definitely be discussed.” AMERICA FIRST The initiation of a U.S. review at first sparked fears for the future of AUKUS, since Colby has expressed skepticism about the program’s worth.  However, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said at a press appearance with Donald Trump at the recent G7 in Canada that “we’re proceeding with” AUKUS — with the U.S. president in agreement. Adam Kozloski, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Atlantic Council think tank, said that while reports of the partnership’s demise had been exaggerated, there was nonetheless a clear shift in priorities for Washington.  “Every initiative that the Trump administration inherited is being looked at in terms of making sure it fits the ‘America first’ approach which they advocate,” he said. Since taking office, Trump has turned America’s gaze firmly away from Europe towards the Indo-Pacific, and he now wants to know what meaningful difference his AUKUS partners can make in that effort. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said at a press appearance with Donald Trump at the recent G7 in Canada that “we’re proceeding with” AUKUS — with the U.S. president in agreement. | Pool Photo by Jaimi Joy via EPA The long trip by U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey and Foreign Secretary David Lammy therefore seems at least partly designed to underscore their willingness to step up, and comes directly before an expected meeting between Trump and Starmer. In remarks released ahead of the visit, Healey said: “AUKUS is one of Britain’s most important defense partnerships, strengthening global security while driving growth at home.” ON MANEUVERS The two countries will sign a new bilateral treaty underpinning their respective submarine programs, while the British Army’s Carrier Strike Group will take part in the largest military exercise Australia has ever hosted, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense. The U.K. and Australia will also seek to demonstrate progress on “Pillar II” of AUKUS, which commits the allies to collaboration on advanced capabilities such as long-range hypersonic missiles, undersea robotics and AI. Sophia Gaston, senior research fellow at King’s College London, said Britain and Australia were “working closely together on demonstrating how AUKUS delivers tangible value” which “means moving at a faster and more ambitious pace on delivery, particularly on Pillar II.” The only catch is that this element of the deal appears to be one that Colby is less bothered about. The review, which is ongoing, is focused on the plan for the U.S. to sell three nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s before their own AUKUS subs arrive in the 2040s. Colby is mostly concerned about how Australia will actually use those submarines — which will be taken out of the U.S. fleet — and how they will support U.S. interests, particularly with regard to the defense of Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, according to one person briefed on the review who requested anonymity to discuss the matter. Colby is less concerned over some of the joint technological development programs that make up Pillar II of the agreement, the same person said.  Despite the elaborate display of military prowess by the U.K., London will be hard-pressed to convince Washington that it is capable of deploying the type of hard power which the U.S. is really seeking in the region.  In remarks released ahead of the visit, John Healey said: “AUKUS is one of Britain’s most important defense partnerships, strengthening global security while driving growth at home.” | Andy Rain/EPA “How likely is it that these forces are going to be in the region and capable of assisting if something were actually to go down with Taiwan or the South China Sea?” asked Kozloski, who pointed out that it had taken months of planning to get U.K. forces to Australian shores. On the Australian side, the U.S. has reportedly asked Canberra to set out how they would react if the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan — prompting Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy to state that they would not commit troops in advance. Against this backdrop, the epic journey made by HMS Prince of Wales begins to look like the easy bit. Luke McGee contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — Iceland has enough public support to reopen accession talks with the EU, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO ahead of a visit to the island today by Ursula von der Leyen. The European Commission president’s trip comes as Iceland contemplates the consequences of a trade war between its two largest trading partners, on top of pressure from the U.S. to bolster defense and Washington’s threats to annex its North Atlantic neighbor Greenland. “I would say the public support for recommencing the negotiations is there,” Gunnarsdóttir said. She added that reopening accession talks is “vital when it comes to the geopolitical situation,” and noted that Iceland had already advanced “pretty far into the negotiation process” during its previous accession talks from 2010-2013. The country’s pro-EU coalition government has promised a referendum on restarting EU accession talks by 2027, as they had been halted in 2013 under a previous right-wing government. Gunnarsdóttir, who is also the leader of Iceland’s pro-EU Reform party, said she “trust[s] the nation and the people of Iceland to decide to continue” and “hope[s] that people say yes.” She added she would like to “speed up the process” if the public do vote in favor of reopening accession talks, but acknowledged that “sensitive, emotional” topics like fisheries, agriculture and energy would be sticking points in any future negotiations. Iceland is already part of the Schengen free travel area and is a long-time member of the European Economic Area. According to a poll earlier this year, 58 percent of Icelanders support reopening accession talks — but support is lower for EU membership, with just 45 percent in favor, 35 percent opposed and 20 percent undecided. Von der Leyen will be meeting with the country’s prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, and touring Keflavik air base, which is strategically significant for NATO military exercises. Her visit “underlines this good relationship between Iceland and the EU, and also that we are going to hopefully deepen that collaboration now and in the foreseeable future,” regardless of whether Iceland joins the EU, Gunnarsdóttir said. DEFENSE BOOST, BUT NO ARMY Iceland, as the only NATO member with no army but with a strategically important location in the North Atlantic, occupies a unique position in the alliance, especially as U.S. President Donald Trump pressures members to bump up their military spending. While there are “no current plans” to build up a standing army,  Iceland is “very serious on strengthening our defense cooperation,” said Gunnarsdóttir, who is also responsible for the country’s new defense strategy. She added that Iceland, which currently hosts NATO exercises and provides infrastructure and other support, wants to “be a respected and reliable ally, both in NATO and also … with the EU.” The incoming defense strategy will include “more support to allied operations out of Iceland,” Gunnarsdóttir reported, including cyber defense and strengthening domestic capabilities such as the national coast guard. The country’s parliament is to agree on the content of the strategy by autumn. In the meantime, satisfying a NATO ask to spend 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense-related goals is the country’s “main objective,” Gunnarsdóttir said. WASHINGTON CALLING Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, another Arctic island with strategic positioning for defense, are setting the tone for Iceland’s future referendum, with the country’s leader saying she doesn’t want her compatriots to join the EU out of fear. Gunnarsdóttir said the government is “still discussing” Washington’s moves on Greenland and “how they will affect us here,” but said there are “no indications” that America’s policy toward Iceland will change. She underlined that “there is nothing to be decided on Greenland’s behalf without the Greenlanders.” In the meantime, her country is “strengthening our discussion and relationship to the U.S. as well to the EU.” She said the relationship with the U.S. is vital “for our security, for the security in the North Atlantic and for Greenland as well.” But Gunnarsdóttir admitted that the prospect of a trade war between the EU and the U.S. — Iceland’s two most significant trading partners — was “very worrisome.” Trump has hit Iceland with 10 percent tariffs but has held off on a more punitive rate. Reykjavik doesn’t have immediate plans to retaliate, the foreign minister said. “For the time being, we want to have a dialog with the U.S. government.” But she stressed that as the EU holds eleventh-hour talks with Washington to avoid an all-out trade war, any response by the 27-nation bloc should “not entail new barriers or restrictions within the EEA.” As Gunnarsdóttir was speaking, a volcano erupted in the southwest of the island. The minister hailed the event as a signal it was “a very good time” for von der Leyen’s visit, and as showcasing the Icelandic people’s “endurance and resilience but also resourcefulness” in their turbulent environment.