The Bank of Russia is suing the European Union for keeping its state assets frozen “for an indefinite period” to serve as collateral against a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. The lawsuit will test rare emergency powers that the European Commission used last year to keep Russian state assets across the bloc, worth some €210 billion, on ice through a qualified majority. The legal loophole nullified vetoes that Kremlin-friendly countries in the EU, such as Hungary, would otherwise have had. EU leaders agreed in mid-December to raise common debt without Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. Ukraine will only have to pay back the loan once Moscow ends the conflict and pays war reparations. If the Kremlin refuses, EU leaders reserve the right to tap the cash value of the frozen assets to pay itself back. In a statement Tuesday, the Bank of Russia blasted the EU’s “unlawful actions against the Bank of Russia’s sovereign assets,” saying the regulation violates “the basic and inalienable rights to access justice” and the “principle of sovereign immunity of states and their central banks.” The central bank also argued the Council of the EU committed “serious violations” of its own procedures by adopting the measure by qualified majority rather than unanimity. The Commission plans to issue a statement in response to the lawsuit, which the central bank filed at the EU’s General Court in Luxembourg. Russia’s central bank filed a separate lawsuit in Moscow last year against Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, where the bulk of its assets lie immobilized under EU sanctions after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s cash-strapped government received a small reprieve in the early hours of Friday after the International Monetary Fund approved a new $8.1 billion loan to the war-torn country. The IMF will disburse some $1.5 billion from the loan straight away, as Kyiv’s coffers are set to empty in April after years of fighting against Russian invading forces. “It is very important for us that in the fifth year of a full-scale war, against the backdrop of systemic attacks on the energy sector, Ukraine has guaranteed international financial support from partners and a resource for the stable operation of the state,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko posted on Facebook after the IMF’s announcement. The international lender had initially demanded more assurances over Kyiv’s financial stability before approving the loan — this came when a majority of EU countries agreed late last year to raise €90 billion in joint debt to shore up Ukraine against Russia. But the IMF’s cash cushion is tiny. Kyiv’s budget shortfall is set to widen beyond $50 billion this year, putting pressure on the EU to overcome a dispute with Hungary that’s blocking crucial financial support. The EU’s planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine would help plug the gap. But Hungary is blocking the financing package amid accusations that Ukraine is deliberately slow-walking repairs to the damaged 4,000-kilometer Druzhba pipeline, which carries vital supplies of Russian oil to Hungary, on political grounds. Ukraine has dismissed the accusations. The European Commission has also downplayed the risk of an immediate energy crunch in Hungary, which has 90 days’ worth of oil supplies it can use. In the meantime, Brussels’ top brass is trying to solve the dispute without playing into an anti-EU political campaign that Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, is pursuing ahead of a national election in April. The Hungarian leader has also weaponized anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of the election, with his political party, Fidesz, trailing the opposition, Tisza, in the polls by a wide margin. A loss would see Orbán’s 16-year reign come to an end. GIVE AND TAKE Some diplomats in Brussels had feared Orbán’s veto could hold up the IMF loan. The world’s lender of last resort demanded greater assurances over Kyiv’s financial health before issuing a loan, after four years of war have more than doubled the country’s debt burden to 108.7 percent of economic output. That reassurance initially arrived in mid-December, when 24 EU leaders agreed to raise €90 billion in joint debt to help finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Kyiv will only have to repay the money once Moscow ends the war and pays war reparations — an unlikely scenario. If the Kremlin refuses, the EU could use the cash value of frozen Russian state assets across the bloc to pay itself back. None of that matters if Orbán refuses to withdraw his veto. Recent correspondence with European Council President António Costa, however, has suggested Orbán will drop his veto if the EU assesses the damage to the Druzhba pipeline. The Hungarian leader could also relent if Brussels approves Budapest’s application for a €16 billion defense loan, according to some diplomats. The Commission’s lawyers are studying the EU treaties to see whether a legal loophole could be used to nullify the Hungarian veto. That could take time — something Kyiv doesn’t have. “Ukraine and its people have weathered a long and devastating war for over four years with remarkable resilience,” the IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said in a statement. “Nevertheless, the war has taken a toll on economic and social conditions, with slowing growth and the outlook remaining subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.”

BRUSSELS ― Hungary has thrown the EU’s planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine into crisis after threatening to block the deal until the flow of Russian gas resumes through the Druzhba pipeline. The Hungarian government issued the warning on Friday evening, as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán tries to weaponize anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of a key election where he risks losing power after more than 15 years. “Ukraine is blackmailing Hungary by halting oil transit in coordination with Brussels and the Hungarian opposition to create supply disruptions in Hungary and push fuel prices higher before the elections,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó wrote on X. “We will not give in to this blackmail.” Hungary’s threat to veto the loan is a major setback for Ukraine, whose coffers will begin running low on cash from April. Kyiv will struggle to sustain its war effort without fresh funds, leaving it at a disadvantage in ongoing peace talks with Russia. The first signs of trouble began earlier in the day on Friday. Hungary’s ambassador to the EU demanded that its national assembly get the standard eight weeks to scrutinize EU legislation during a meeting of envoys in Brussels, three EU diplomats told POLITICO. EU ambassadors were set to give their final approval for the loan ahead of Tuesday, which marks the four-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a fresh confrontation with Kyiv, Orbán is accusing the war-torn country of halting Russian gas to Hungary for political reasons. Ukraine rejects these claims, arguing that Russian strikes have damaged the energy infrastructure. The European Commission convened an emergency meeting earlier this week to solve the dispute over the Druzhba pipeline after Hungary and Slovakia retaliated by halting diesel supplies to Ukraine. EU leaders, including Orbán, agreed to the €90 billion loan in December following months of fraught negotiations. In a major concession, the EU exempted Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia ― who oppose giving further aid to Kyiv ― from repaying the borrowing costs of the loan. Budapest on Friday refused to clear one bill that requires unanimity to expand the cash buffer, known as the headroom, of the EU’s long-term budget to issue the loan. EU ambassadors backed the other two bills underpinning the Ukraine loan that only needed a simple majority for approval. As Russia’s firmest ally in the EU, Orbán has frequently threatened to block the EU’s financial support to Ukraine. UPDATED: This story has been updated to reflect Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s comments online.

BRUSSELS — U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland were the “epiphany moment” for Europe’s six largest economies to club together and speed up financial market reform, Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo told POLITICO. The new group, dubbed “E6” in Brussels, is an exclusive club among the EU’s six largest economies — France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland — designed to break political deadlocks that have hamstrung efforts to create a U.S.-style financial market over the last decade. Without action, the six countries fear that Europe’s economy will fail to keep pace with the U.S. and China, and be further squeezed in a geopolitical world that has become increasingly transactional. The goal is to put “politically difficult discussions on the table to be able to unlock files that have been locked so far,” said Cuerpo, who has long campaigned to make EU bodies better at delivering concrete policy decisions. “Building those bridges can then be a good first step towards an overall solution.” The club will also help the six countries coordinate ahead of G7 meetings with Canada, Japan, and the U.S. on strategic issues, such as securing access to critical rare materials, following China’s threat to restrict exports. The E6 club has only convened twice and is already aiming to present EU leaders with specific proposals at the next European Council summit in March. Critics, such as Ireland and Portugal, fear the six-country club could trigger a two-speed Europe, in which the biggest nations will sideline smaller countries that disagree with E6’s agenda — especially when it comes to creating a watchdog to supervise the bloc’s biggest financiers. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested that EU countries should break off into smaller groups and pursue financial integration through “enhanced cooperation,” if the so-called Savings and Investments Union doesn’t progress by June. To focus minds, von der Leyen will produce a roadmap that the E6 hopes to contribute toward, complete with a list of reforms and deadlines for leaders to discuss. The Commission’s first significant policy will be a “28th regime,” an EU-wide legal framework due March 18 that’ll offer companies certain uniform rules to operate easily across the bloc. A SUPERGROUP IS BORN The spark that triggered E6’s emergence came during a ministerial breakfast of coffee and croissants in Brussels on a cold January morning, when Cuerpo’s frustration over EU inaction boiled over. Trump had thrown the NATO alliance into disarray with his renewed demands to “own” Greenland, right after removing the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power. None of these topics had made it onto the ministers’ monthly Ecofin agenda, triggering an outburst from Cuerpo, who lamented the lack of political debate over Europe’s relationship with the U.S. His outburst couldn’t have come at a better time for the finance ministers of France and Germany. The two men, Roland Lescure and Lars Klingbeil, had met just 24 hours earlier to discuss how best to revive EU economic initiatives that had grown stagnant. Invitations for a virtual meeting among E6 countries arrived within a week. Roland Lescure (right) and Lars Klingbeil met to discuss how best to revive EU economic initiatives that had grown stagnant. | Bernd von Jutrczenka/picture alliance via Getty Images “Lars and Roland pushed to convene all six of us and that’s how it got started,” Cuerpo said.  Monday’s discussion focused on strengthening supply chains to critical rare materials and how to quickly progress on deepening the bloc’s financial markets. These included cutting red tape and introducing the so-called 28th regime. The next E6 meeting on March 9 will home in on promoting investment in defense and how to promote the euro on the international stage. MIXED RECEPTION The reception from outside the exclusive group has been mixed. Some believe the E6 could lead to meaningful change, while others fear their voices will be drowned out in the pursuit of swift progress. There’s a third group that believes the six countries will struggle to find common ground at all. Portugal’s finance minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, urged the six countries to respect the EU’s treaties during the Eurogroup on Monday after Germany’s Klingbeil briefed his peers on E6 discussions — a transparency pledge that failed to appease all skeptical ministers and their aides. “EU supervision was the elephant in the room,” one diplomat who attended the Eurogroup said. “I’m surprised more people didn’t speak up.” Legally speaking, the E6 needs at least nine countries to pursue enhanced cooperation. Even then, the legal workaround is only possible once an initiative fails to muster enough support at EU level. Meanwhile, securing a qualified majority to push legislation through requires the backing of 15 countries that represent at least 65 percent of the total EU population. So, the E6 will need allies to advance its goals in any case. To assuage concerns over E6, Cuerpo is encouraging outside countries to join other discussion forums, such as the “Competitiveness Lab,” an open format launched a year ago, to develop common initiatives among governments seeking to deepen their capital markets. In the meantime, Cuerpo is urging skeptical countries to put their faith in something new, beyond Brussels’ creaking legislative machine. “There are no red lines in the discussions within this group,” Cuerpo said. “I think that should be for the benefit of everyone.” Bjarke Smith-Meyer contributed to this report from Brussels.

FRANKFURT — The head of Germany’s central bank has called for the EU to issue more joint debt, putting him at odds with Chancellor Friedrich Merz who wants to keep it strictly as a response to emergencies. “To make Europe attractive also means to attract investors from outside,” the German central bank governor, Joachim Nagel, told POLITICO ahead of an informal summit of EU leaders on Thursday to address the bloc’s economic challenges. “A more liquid European market when it comes to safe European assets would support that.” Eurozone central bankers — who have for the first time coalesced around support for joint debt — have sent EU leaders a wish-list of reforms to ensure that Europe’s economy can reform and keep pace with the U.S. and China. The European Central Bank’s policymakers, Nagel said in an interview on Friday, see “the benefits of creating a common European, highly liquid, euro-wide benchmark safe asset. Action is necessary.” But Nagel’s break from Germany’s traditional opposition to joint debt comes at an awkward time for Berlin. Earlier this week, the German government rebuked a rallying call from French President Emmanuel Macron to issue more eurobonds to boost certain sectors, such as artificial intelligence, European defense, semiconductors and robotics. The EU could also exploit U.S. President Donald Trump’s erratic foreign policy goals and lure global investors across the Atlantic. “The global market … is more and more afraid of the American greenback. It’s looking for alternatives. Let’s offer it European debt,” Macron told a group of reporters on Monday. Joint debt, known by the market shorthand of “eurobonds,” has long been a divisive topic. Since the sovereign debt crisis, southern European governments have pushed for eurobonds to spread the burden of national debt more evenly across the region. Frugal northern states, by contrast, have warned they risk undermining fiscal discipline — and have refused to put their taxpayers on the hook for debts racked up elsewhere. The Bundesbank has long been the de facto leader of the skeptics in northern and central Europe who believe eurobonds are best suited to isolated crises that require drastic action. These include an €800 billion post-pandemic recovery plan and a €90 billion loan to Ukraine to finance its defense against Russia. The last thing the so-called frugal bloc wants is for the EU to get into the habit of raising common debt to solve all of its issues. But times are fast changing. “Tradition is something that is a reflection of the reality of the past,” Nagel said when asked about the Bundesbank’s shift, stressing that Europe’s security has not been as threatened as today since World War II. “Now we have a different reality.” EUROBONDS, WITH LIMITS Support for joint debt does not mean the Bundesbank is dropping its commitment to ensuring sound fiscal policies. A European asset would only support “specific purposes,” and “how it is controlled by the European authorities and the Member States should be equally clear,” the 59-year-old said. Eurobonds must also be accompanied by debt reduction at the national level. “European debt is not a free lunch. And doubts about fiscal sustainability should not jeopardize the chances for improved common policies,” he said. Nagel stopped short of saying how much EU debt is needed to achieve real change. “I won’t give you a number,” he said, but added that “if you want to create something liquid, you have to give the markets an indication about the volume that you will supply over a certain period of time and for a certain purpose.” The central banker would not be drawn into whether Berlin might also adjust its views to reflect the new reality. “I see my role as giving advice on what could be a way out of a complicated situation that we are confronted with in Germany and in Europe,” he said. AUTONOMY, NOT SUPREMACY But a more efficient euro capital market is only one front in the battle to secure Europe’s economic independence and autonomy, Nagel said, adding that it will be equally important to ensure that the continent’s payment system can function independently from outside pressure. “Payment solutions, in an extreme scenario, could be weaponized,” he said.  Accordingly, he argued, the bloc needs to break the duopoly that U.S. credit card giants Mastercard and Visa hold over Europe’s payment rails across its borders. The key to payment security, he went on, is to mint a virtual extension of euro banknotes and coins that can settle transactions across the EU in seconds. The twin projects of the digital euro and perfecting the euro capital market may help boost Europe’s strength and autonomy, but still don’t amount to a masterplan to steal the dollar’s crown. And Nagel added that last week’s hint by the ECB about expanding its liquidity lines to central banks around the world, securing companies’ access to euros in times of stress, should not be seen as motivated by a political desire to boost the euro. “It is about monetary policy,” he said. Since last summer, Lagarde has urged Europe to seize a “global euro moment” as cracks began to appear in U.S. dollar dominance. While Nagel believes that “the euro could play here a significant role” as investors rebalance their portfolios to adjust to the new reality, he is not a fan of quick shifts. “I’m not in favor of fast tracking, jumping from one level to the next,” he said. “Often, such a development is not a very healthy one. I’m comfortable with gradual progress on the international role of the euro, as long as it’s moving in the right direction.”

BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia, the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday. “The new financing will help ensure the country’s fierce resilience in the face of Russian aggression,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a statement. Without the loan Ukraine had risked running out of cash by April, which would have been catastrophic for its war effort and could have crippled its negotiating efforts during ongoing American-backed peace talks with Russia. EU lawmakers still have some hurdles to clear, such as agreeing on the conditions Ukraine must satisfy to get a payout, before Brussels can raise money on the global debt market to finance the loan — which is backed by the EU’s seven-year budget. A big point of dispute among EU countries was how Ukraine will be able to spend the money, and who will benefit. One-third of the money will go for normal budgetary needs and the rest for defense. France led efforts to get Ukraine to spend as much of that as possible with EU defense companies, mindful that the bloc’s taxpayers are footing the €3 billion annual bill to cover interest payments on the loan. However, Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian nations pushed to give Ukraine as much flexibility as possible. The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, will allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from third countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need, while also strengthening the oversight of EU states over such derogations. The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike capabilities. If the U.K. or other third countries like South Korea, which have signed security deals with the EU and have helped Ukraine, want to take part in procurement deals beyond that, they will have to contribute financially to help cover interest payments on the loan. The European Parliament must now examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images The text also mentions that the contribution of non-EU countries — to be agreed in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional to how much their defense firms could gain from taking part in the scheme. Canada, which already has a deal to take part in the EU’s separate €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons scheme, will not have to pay extra to take part in the Ukraine program, but would have detail the products that could be procured by Kyiv. NEXT STEPS Now that ambassadors have reached a deal, the European Parliament must examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text before approving the measure. If all goes well, Kyiv will get €45 billion from the EU this year in tranches. The remaining cash will arrive in 2027. Ukraine will only repay the money if Moscow ends its full-scale invasion and pays war reparations. If Russia refuses, the EU will consider raiding the Kremlin’s frozen assets lying in financial institutions across the bloc. While the loan will keep Ukrainian forces in the fight, the amount won’t cover Kyiv’s total financing needs — even with another round of loans, worth $8 billion, expected from the International Monetary Fund. By the IMF’s own estimates, Kyiv will need at least €135 billion to sustain its military and budgetary needs this year and next. Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are working on a plan to rebuild Ukraine that aims to attract $800 billion in public and private funds over 10 years. For that to happen, the eastern front must first fall silent — a remote likelihood at this point. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.

BRUSSELS — The U.S. and EU are hoping to attract $800 billion of public and private funds to help rebuild Ukraine once Russia ends its full-scale invasion, according to a document obtained by POLITICO. The 18-page document outlines a 10-year plan to guarantee Ukraine’s recovery with a fast-tracked path toward EU membership. The European Commission circulated the plans with EU capitals ahead of the leaders’ summit Thursday evening where the document, dated Jan. 22, was addressed, according to three EU officials and diplomats who were granted anonymity to talk about the sensitive topic. While Brussels and Washington are lining up hundreds of billions of dollars in long-term funding and pitching Ukraine as a future EU member and investment destination, the strategy hinges on a ceasefire that remains elusive — leaving the prosperity plan vulnerable as long as the fighting continues. The funding strategy stretches until 2040 alongside an immediate 100-day operational plan to get the project off the ground. But the prosperity plan will struggle to attract outside investment if the conflict rumbles on, according to the world’s largest money manager, BlackRock, which is advising on the reconstruction plan in a pro-bono capacity. “Think about it. If you’re a pension fund, you’re fiduciary towards your clients, your pensioners. It’s nearly impossible to invest into a war zone,” BlackRock’s vice chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, said Wednesday in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “I think it has to be sequenced and that’s going to take some time.” The prosperity plan is part of a 20-point peace blueprint that the U.S. is attempting to broker between Kyiv and Moscow. It explicitly assumes that security guarantees are already in place and is not intended as a military roadmap. Instead, it focuses on how Ukraine can transition from emergency assistance to self-sustaining prosperity. A three-way meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. will take place in Abu Dhabi on Friday and Saturday, as the all-out conflict nears its fourth anniversary. The U.S. is set to play a prominent role in Ukraine’s recovery. Rather than framing Washington primarily as a donor, the document positioned the U.S. as a strategic economic partner, investor and credibility anchor for Ukraine’s recovery.  The note anticipates direct participation by U.S. companies and expertise on the ground, and highlights America’s role as a mobilizer of private capital. BlackRock’s chief executive, Larry Fink, has sat in on peace talks with Kyiv alongside U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff. SHOW ME THE MONEY Over the next 10 years, the EU, the U.S. and international financial bodies, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have pledged to spend $500 billion of public and private capital, the document said. The Commission intends to spend a further €100 billion on Kyiv through budget support and investment guarantees, as part of the bloc’s next seven-year budget from 2028. This funding is expected to unlock €207 billion in investments for Ukraine. The U.S. pledged to mobilize capital through a dedicated U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, but did not attach a figure.  While Trump has slashed military and humanitarian support to Ukraine during the war, it showed willingness to invest in the country after the end of the conflict. Washington said in the document that it will invest in critical minerals, infrastructure, energy and technology projects in Ukraine.  But business is unlikely to boom before the eastern front falls silent. “It’s very hard to see that happening at scale as long as you have drones and missiles flying,” BlackRock’s Hildebrand said. Kathryn Carlson reported from Davos, Switzerland.

BRUSSELS — The European Commission on Wednesday unveiled a €90 billion loan to Ukraine aimed at saving it from financial collapse as it continues to battle Russia while aid from the U.S. dries up. About one-third of the cash will be used for normal budget expenditures and the rest will go to defense — although countries still need to formally agree to what extent Ukraine can use the money to buy weapons from outside the EU. A Commission proposal gives EU defense firms preferential treatment but allows Ukraine to buy foreign weapons if they aren’t immediately available in Europe. While the loan is interest-free for Ukraine, it is forecast to cost EU taxpayers between €3 billion and €4 billion a year in borrowing costs from 2028. The EU had to resort to the loan after an earlier effort to use sanctioned Russian frozen assets ran into opposition from Belgium. The race is now on for EU lawmakers to agree on a final legal text that’ll pave the way for disbursements in April, when Ukraine’s war chest runs out. Meetings between EU treasury and defense officials are already planned for Friday. The European Parliament could fast-track the loan as early as next week. The financing package is also crucial for unlocking additional loans to Ukraine from the International Monetary Fund. The Washington-based Fund wants to ensure Kyiv’s finances aren’t overstretched, as the war enters its fifth year next month. The €90 billion will be paid out over the next two years, as Moscow shows no sign of slowing down its offensive on Ukraine despite U.S.-led efforts to agree on a ceasefire. “Russia shows no sign of abating, no sign of remorse, no sign of seeking peace,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters after presenting the proposal. “We all want peace for Ukraine, and for that, Ukraine must be in a position of strength.” When EU leaders agreed on the loan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the deal an “unprecedented decision, and it will also have an impact on the peace negotiations.” Adding to the pressure on the EU, the U.S. under President Donald Trump has halted new military and financial aid to Ukraine, leaving it up to Europe to ensure Kyiv can continue fighting. Once the legal text is agreed, the EU will raise joint debt to finance the initiative, although the governments in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia said they will not participate in the funding drive.  The conditions on military spending are splitting EU countries. Paris is demanding strict rules to prevent money from flowing to U.S. weapons manufacturers, while Germany and other Northern European countries want to give Ukraine greater flexibility on how to spend the cash, pointing out that some key systems needed by Ukraine aren’t manufactured in Europe. MEETING HALFWAY The Commission has put forward a compromise proposal — seen by POLITICO. It gives preferential treatment to defense companies based in the EU, Ukraine and neighboring countries, including Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, but doesn’t rule out purchases from abroad. To keep the Northern European capitals happy, the Commission’s proposal allows Ukraine to buy specialized weapons produced outside the EU if they are vital for Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. These include the U.S. Patriot long-range missile and air defense systems. The rules could be bent further in cases “where there is an urgent need for a given defense product” that can’t be delivered quickly from within Europe. Weapons aren’t considered European if more than 35 percent of their parts come from outside the continent, according to the draft. That’s in line with previous EU defense-financing initiatives, such as the €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons program. Two other legal texts are included in the legislative package. One proposes using the upper borrowing limit in the current budget to guarantee the loan. The other is designed to tweak the Ukraine Facility, a 2023 initiative that governs the bloc’s long-term financial support to Kyiv. The Commission will also create a new money pot to cover the borrowing costs before the new EU budget enters into force in 2028. RUSSIAN COLLATERAL Ukraine only has to repay the €90 billion loan if it receives post-war reparations from Russia — an unlikely scenario. If this doesn’t happen, the EU has left the door open to tapping frozen Russian state assets across the bloc to pay itself back. Belgium’s steadfast opposition to leveraging the frozen assets, most of which are based in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, promises to make that negotiation difficult. However, the Commission can indefinitely roll over its debt by issuing eurobonds until it finds the necessary means to pay off the loan. The goal is to ensure Ukraine isn’t left holding the bill. “The Union reserves its right to use the cash balances from immobilized Russian assets held in the EU to repay the Ukraine Support Loan,” Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said alongside von der Leyen. “Supporting Ukraine is a litmus test for Europe. The outcome of Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine will determine Europe’s future.” Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report from Brussels.

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO Europe. Russia’s war on Ukraine seems likely to end next year — and on terms highly unfavorable for Kyiv. Why the prediction? Because of the EU’s failure last week to agree to use Russia’s money — €210 billion in frozen assets — to keep Ukraine solvent and able to finance its war effort. The felling of the “reparations loan” proposal, which would have recycled Russian assets that are mostly frozen in a clearing bank in Belgium, deprives Ukraine of guaranteed funding for the next two years. It was Belgium’s legal anxieties over the loan, along with French President Emmanuel Macron’s and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s reluctance to join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in championing the proposal, that doomed it. And all that, despite weeks of wrangling and overblown expectations by the plan’s advocates, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Fortunately, the EU will still provide a sizable funding package for Ukraine, after agreeing to jointly borrow  €90 billion from capital markets secured against the EU’s budget, and lend it on a no-interest basis. But while this will prevent the country from running out of money early next year, the package is meant to be spread out over two years, and that won’t be sufficient to keep Ukraine in the fight. According to projections by the International Monetary Fund, due to the reduction in U.S. financial support, Ukraine’s budgetary shortfall over the next two years will be closer to $160 billion. Simply put, Ukraine will need much more from Europe — and that’s going to be increasingly difficult for the bloc to come up with. Still, many European leaders were rather optimistic once the funding deal was struck last week. Finnish President Alexander Stubb noted on Sunday that the agreed package would still be linked to the immobilized Russian assets, as the scheme envisions that Kyiv will use them to repay the loan once the war ends. “The immobilized Russian assets will stay immobilized … and the union reserves its right to make use of the immobilized assets to repay this loan,” he posted on X. Plus, the thinking goes, a subsequent loan could be added on and indirectly linked to the Russian assets. And maybe so. But this could also be construed as counting one’s chickens before they’re hatched, as everything depends on what kind of deal is struck to end the war. In the meantime, securing another loan won’t be so simple once Ukraine’s coffers empty again. Three countries — Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — already opted out of last week’s joint-borrowing scheme. It isn’t a stretch to imagine others will join them either, balking at the very notion of yet another multi-billion-euro package in 2027, which is an important election year for both France and Germany. Also, Trump will still be in the White House — so, no point in looking to Washington for the additional cash. Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images And yet, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever still described last week’s deal, reached after almost 17 hours of negotiations, as a “victory for Ukraine, a victory for financial stability … and a victory for the EU.” However, that’s not how Russian President Vladimir Putin will see it. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had noted while seeking to persuade European leaders to back the reparations loan: “If Putin knows, that we can stay resilient for at least a few more years, then his reason to drag out this war becomes much weaker.” But that’s not what happened. And after last Friday’s debacle highlighted the division among Europe’s leaders, surely that’s not the lesson Putin will be taking home. Rather, it will only have confirmed that time is on his side. That if he waits just a bit longer, the 28-point plan that his aides crafted with Trump’s obliging Special Envoy Steve Witkoff can be revived, leaving Ukraine and Europe to flounder — a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Putin can also read opinion polls, and see European voters’ growing impatience with the war in some of the continent’s biggest economies. For example, published last week, a POLITICO Poll of 10,000 found respondents in Germany and France even more reluctant to keep financing Ukraine than those in the U.S. In Germany, 45 percent said they would support cutting financial aid to Ukraine, while just 20 percent said they wanted to increase financial assistance. In France, 37 percent wanted to give less, while only 24 percent preferred giving more. In the run-up to last week’s European Council meeting, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal had told POLITICO that European leaders were being handed an opportunity to rebut Trump’s claim that they’re weak. That by inking a deal to unlock hundreds of billions in frozen Russian assets, they would also be answering the U.S. president’s branding of Europe as a “decaying group of nations.” That, they failed to do.

BRUSSELS — EU taxpayers will have to pay €3 billion per year in borrowing costs as part of a plan to raise common debt to finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia, according to senior European Commission officials.  The bloc’s leaders agreed in the early hours of Friday to raise €90 billion for the next two years, backed by the EU budget, to ensure Kyiv’s war chest won’t run dry in April.  The war-ravaged country faces a budget shortfall of €71.7 billion next year and is in desperate need of funds to ensure its survival after Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to keep the conflict going on Friday.  Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia will not join the bloc’s other 24 countries in sharing the debt burden, but agreed not to obstruct Ukraine’s financing needs. As part of the carve-out deal, the Commission will propose a so-called enhanced cooperation early next week, giving the 24 countries a legal platform to raise joint debt. Many of the hallmarks of the €210 billion financing package for Ukraine will be transferred to the new plan for common debt. These include payout structures in tranches, anti-corruption safeguards, and an outline for how much money should be spent on Kyiv’s military and the country’s budgetary needs. European governments resorted to joint debt after failing to agree on a controversial plan to leverage frozen Russian assets across the bloc. The new plan would provide Ukraine with €45 billion next year, handing Kyiv a crucial lifeline as it enters its fifth year of fighting. The remaining funds would be disbursed in 2027. COST OF BORROWING The new plan won’t come cheap. The EU is expected to pay €3 billion annually in interest from 2028 through its seven-year budget, which is largely financed by EU governments, senior Commission officials told reporters on Friday. Interest payments would begin in 2027, but would cost only €1 billion that year. Ukraine will only have to repay the loan once Russia ends the war and pays war reparations. That seems unlikely, which means the EU could continuously roll over the debt or use frozen Russian assets to repay it.  That would require another political agreement among EU leaders, as Belgium is strongly opposed to using the frozen assets, most of which are held in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. It was Belgium’s resistance that ultimately forced leaders to pursue common debt. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever wanted unlimited financial guarantees against the Russian asset-backed loan, a demand too great for his peers.