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Nach dem Wahldebakel der SPD in Rheinland-Pfalz steht die Koalition mit dem
Rücken zur Wand. Friedrich Merz, Bärbel Bas und Lars Klingbeil haben sich auf
eine Flucht nach vorn verständigt: den Weg der schmerzhaften Reformen. Gordon
Repinski präsentiert das inoffizielle „Inspirationspapier“ von POLITICO mit
radikalen Vorschlägen für Deutschland – vom Rentenrealismus über eine echte
Steuerreform bis hin zur mutigen Zusammenlegung von Ministerien. Ist Schwarz-Rot
bereit, den eigenen Funktionären und den Wählern echte Kompromisse
abzuverlangen?
Während die Sozialdemokratie weiter wankt, blickt SPD-Spitzenkandidat Armin
Willingmann in Sachsen-Anhalt auf die nächste Schicksalswahl. Im
200-Sekunden-Interview spricht er über die „bedingt hilfreiche“ Performance aus
Berlin, warum er rollende Köpfe an der Parteispitze derzeit für kontraproduktiv
hält und wie er die Arbeiter im Osten mit einer Politik für die Mitte
zurückgewinnen will.
Bei den Liberalen ist die nächste Krisenstufe gezündet: Nach dem Verschwinden
aus den Umfragen im Südwesten soll im Mai die komplette Parteispitze neu gewählt
werden. Rixa Fürsen analysiert das personelle Vakuum: Kann Christian Dürr seinen
Posten halten oder schlägt jetzt die Stunde von Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann
und dem NRW-Landeschef Henning Höne?
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski
und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international,
hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet
jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos
abonnieren.
Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram:
@gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.
POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH
Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin
Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0
information@axelspringer.de
Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B
USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390
Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna
**(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht der PKV: Hätten Sie’s gedacht? Vom jährlichen
15,5-Milliarden-Euro-Mehrumsatz der Privatversicherten profitiert das gesamte
Gesundheitswesen. Denn neben den Haus- und Fachärzten kommen die höheren
Honorare auch den zahnärztlichen Praxen zugute, dem Arzneimittelbereich oder
Therapeutinnen. So stützt die PKV die medizinische Versorgung in Deutschland
zugunsten aller – auch der gesetzlich Versicherten. Mehr auf pkv.de**
Tag - Economic performance
Teresa Graham, © EFPIA
European governments navigate an ever more competitive global landscape,
stagnating productivity and competing demands on budgets. We have successfully
faced and solved many challenges in the past, but this situation is different:
the choices we make today will shape our health care systems and patient care,
and these choices will dictate Europe’s economic performance and global
relevance for decades to come.
For those of us in the life sciences, these aren’t just macroeconomic trends —
they are the pulse of a system that determines how quickly a breakthrough
reaches a patient. It is a high-stakes environment where policies on health care
and innovation carry urgent human and economic consequences. When a medicine has
the power to treat or potentially cure, neither innovators nor policymakers want
to drag their heels, because no person requiring health care can afford the
luxury of delay.
> The true economic burden of health care isn’t financing health innovation, but
> the cost of failing to do so.
Europe’s challenge is clear: we must better align our industrial strength in
life science with public health goals, ensuring innovation reaches both patients
and economies faster. The question is no longer what Europe wants to be — it is
where Europe chooses to invest to remain a global player.
Health as e conomic i nfrastructure
Under the weight of mounting budget pressures, it is understandable that
governments often view health primarily as a cost to be contained. However, this
perspective is disconnected from modern economic reality.
And let me be clear: the true economic burden of health care isn’t financing
health innovation, but the cost of failing to do so. For years, Europe has
already been paying the price of lost productivity: citizens forced out of the
workforce too early and chronic diseases managed too late. For instance,
cardiovascular diseases alone cost the E uropean U nion economy up to €282
billion annually. This creates a massive yet avoidable strain on national
budgets, especially as pharmaceutical innovation is estimated to be responsible
for up to two-thirds of life expectancy gains in high-income countries . 1
> Every medical breakthrough that enables a citizen to return to work or care
> for their family is a direct investment in Europe’s economic strength.
We must shift our mindset . H ealth is not merely a social good; it is economic
infrastructure. Healthier societies are inherently more productive and
resilient, and every medical breakthrough that enables a citizen to return to
work or care for their family is a direct investment in Europe’s economic
strength. Investing in innovation today is the only way to secure a competitive
workforce and reduce long-term systemic costs.
The c ompetitiveness t est: a s trategic a sset, n ot a l ine i tem
Europe’s life sciences sector is one of the few remaining areas that retains
genuine global competitiveness and strength, contributing more than €300 billion
to annual output and supporting 2 million high-skilled jobs across m ember s
tates . 2 It anchors Europe’s trade resilience, generating a trade surplus 66
percent higher than all other EU sectors combined . 3
But the warning signs are clear: while Europe still accounts for 20 percent of
global pharmaceutical research and development , its share of global investment
is shrinking as capital and talent migrate elsewhere . 4 Europe’s world-class
science is being held back by fragmentation and regulatory inertia.
> We must treat this sector as a pillar of our sovereignty and a strategic
> asset, not merely a cost to be managed.
If we want to lead the next wave of medical breakthroughs, we must move at the
speed of global change. This requires a fundamental shift: simplifying clinical
trial regulations, deploying AI-driven digital tools, incentivizing research
through strong intellectual property frameworks and establishing a
public-private dialogue on innovative pharmaceuticals.
We need a clear action plan, not just more legislation, to translate our
scientific leadership into tangible health outcomes.  We must treat this
sector as a pillar of our sovereignty and a strategic asset, not merely a cost
to be managed.
A c onsequential c hoice
Europe has to choose. Either we can continue to approach life science innovation
as a budgetary threat, only to reali z e too late that we have weakened our
competitiveness and delayed new treatments for patients. Or we can recogni z
e innovation for what it is — an economic multiplier that strengthens our
productivity, resilience and global influence — and ensure that
Europe remains a place where the next generation of medical breakthroughs is
discovered, developed and delivered to patients.
There is no middle ground. Europe must stop focus ing solely on the cost of
innovation and start asking how much innovation it can afford to lose. In the
global race for talent and capital, hesitation is a decision. The rest of the
world is not waiting.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
References
1. The value of health: Investing in Europe’s future [EPC 2026]
2. Economic and Societal Footprint of the Pharmaceutical Industry in Europe [VE
/ PwC 2024]
3. International trade of EU and non-EU countries since 2002 by SITC [Eurostat
2026]
4. The 2025 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard [EC 2025]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT
* The sponsor is European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and
Associations (EFPIA)
* The entity ultimately controlling the sponsor is European Federation of
Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA)
* The political advertisement is linked to EU pharmaceutical regulation and
innovation policy.
More information here.
BRUSSELS — The right to use Swiss franc banknotes and coins will be enshrined in
Switzerland’s constitution after voters on Sunday backed a measure designed to
safeguard the use of cash in society.
Preliminary official estimates revealed 69 percent of voters backed the legal
amendment, which the government proposed as a counter to a similar initiative by
a group called the Swiss Freedom Movement.
The Swiss Freedom Movement triggered the national referendum after its
initiative to protect cash collected more than 100,000 signatures, triggering a
national referendum. Its initiative secured only 46 percent of the final vote
after the government said some of the group’s proposed amendments went too far.
The vote means Switzerland will join the likes of Hungary, Slovakia and
Slovenia, which have already written the right to cold, hard cash in their
constitutions. Austrian politicians are also debating whether to follow suit, as
people’s payment habits become increasingly digital — especially since the
pandemic.
The trend has fanned Big Brother conspiracy theories that governments aim to
control populations by withdrawing cash altogether. The European Central Bank’s
plans to issue a virtual extension of the euro have fanned those fears,
prompting the EU’s executive arm to propose a bill that will cement physical
cash in societies across the bloc.
Switzerland, too, has seen a drop in cash payments over the past decade. More
than seven out of 10 payments at the till were in cash in 2017. In 2024, cash
only featured in 30 percent of in-shop transactions, according to data from the
Swiss National Bank.
The Swiss Freedom Movement has previously pursued campaigns to sack unpopular
government ministers, ban electronic voting, and protect citizens from
professional or social retribution if they refuse to be vaccinated against
Covid-19 — none of which made it to the ballot box.
BRUSSELS — Spain’s business sector isn’t sure Donald Trump will chicken out.
While the country’s political class may be steadfast in its defiance against the
U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran, its companies and regional leaders are scrambling
to figure out what retaliation out of Washington would look like.
The fear is that a transatlantic rift between Washington and Madrid, which
opened after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refused to let U.S. military planes
use jointly operated air bases on Spanish soil to attack Iran, could turn into a
complete rupture. Earlier this week, the U.S. President and his Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent threatened to cut all trade ties with the EU’s
fourth-largest economy in retaliation.
It’s not supposed to be easy for the U.S. to bring economic pain to Spain. The
EU functions as a barrier-free common market of 27 nations, a collective
commercial entity that cannot be divided or fragmented with individual
retaliation.
But Spanish businesses aren’t taking any chances, given how vulnerable the
country would be to a U.S. trade embargo. The U.S. is Spain’s leading supplier
of fossil fuels. Over 15 percent of the oil Spain imported last year came from
the U.S., which also provided a record 44 percent of the country’s liquefied
natural gas imports last January alone. Cutting off the supply of either would
be devastating amid surging energy prices from the war in the Gulf.
Even though the U.S. accounts for less than 5 percent of Spain’s total global
exports, suspending trade relations would have a serious impact on regions like
the autonomous Basque Country, a major industrial player.
“Around 8 percent of our exports go directly to the States,” Ander Caballero,
the Basque government’s head of foreign affairs, told POLITICO during an
interview in Brussels. “We need to see how any change in policy would be
applied, but anything affecting the energy or automotive sectors, or involving
machine tools, steel, and aluminum would be a source of concern.”
Caballero noted that the region’s products were also part of larger value chains
that involve large German, French, and British companies. “Even though the U.S.
is only our fourth laregst trading partner, we could still be talking about a
hit that could amount to €1 billion.”
Basque Country President Imanol Pradales this week convened an emergency meeting
of the region’s “Industrial Defense Group,” made up of government figures,
chambers of commerce and key sectoral and business leaders, to coordinate
contingency measures against the commercial turmoil stemming from the Middle
Eastern conflict.
The rapid-response task force was created one year ago with the mission of
mitigating the regional impact of Trump’s tariff policies, which Pradales
described as a “challenge unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.” This week
marked the fourth emergency meeting of the group.
“The Basque Country cannot control the global geopolitical landscape, but we can
react quickly to protect our industry,” Pradales said. “The time it takes us to
react will determine the magnitude of the impact.”
The rush to prepare for the worst underscores Spaniards’ fear of the White
House’s arsenal of economic weapons. So far, the most popular of these weapons
has been trade tariffs. But Trump has also used sanctions to deprive his
dissenters from using American credit cards and cut off countries like Iran from
the world’s reserve currency.
Scott Bessent has no qualms with weaponizing the U.S. dollar | Magnus
Lejhall/EPA
Bessent has no qualms with weaponizing the U.S. dollar, either. Earlier this
year, he told POLITICO that sanctions and limits on access to the greenback
enabled Washington to influence other countries’ policies “without firing
bullets.”
That’s of particular concern to banks, such as Spain’s largest lender,
Santander, which last month agreed to acquire the U.S.’s Webster Financial
Corporation, a second-tier bank. The $12.2 billion deal could catapult Santander
into the top 10 American retail and commercial lenders. At the very least, a
breakdown in commercial relations between Madrid and Washington could make it
harder to secure necessary regulatory approvals.
Santander Executive Chairman Ana Botín sought to calm shareholders on Wednesday,
insisting that it was key to “look to the medium term.” While acknowledging that
the current situation was “extraordinary,” she downplayed the clash, saying:
“trade continues and is very strong.”
“Spain and the U.S. have had an amazing relationship, forever, for centuries,”
Botín told Bloomberg TV, alluding to the Spanish crown’s financial support for
George Washington in the American War of Independence, the 250th anniversary of
which is being observed this year. “The long-term relationship is strong.”
YET ANOTHER TACO?
Of course, it’s entirely possible that Trump’s vow to cut ties with Spain will
never materialize. According to market lore, whenever the risk of self-inflicted
economic pain outweighs political rhetoric, “Trump always chickens out” — or
TACO .
None of the higher tariffs he threatened to impose on Sweden, Norway, Germany,
Finland, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands for their participation
in military training exercises in Greenland has been implemented.
Neither has the 200 percent tariff on French wine and champagne that Trump swore
he’d impose on Paris after French President Macron declined to join the Board of
Peace scheme to rebuild Gaza. And Madrid is still waiting to hear about the
higher tariffs the U.S. president promised to use to punish Sánchez for his
refusal to commit 5 percent of Spain’s GDP to military spending.
Sánchez this week insisted that, no matter what Trump threatens, Spain will
continue to oppose the war in Iran. José Manuel Corrales, a professor of
economics and international relations at the European University in Madrid, said
the Spanish prime minister’s stance is savvy because the U.S. president tends to
back down when countries respond to Washington by remaining firm.
“It’s worked out for Canada and México, and obviously for China,” he said. “And,
politically, it’s definitely working out for Spain’s government, which is now
being hailed for standing up to Trump and firmly saying no to this war.”
Regardless of whether Washington cuts trade relations with Madrid, Spain’s
economy is already being affected by the instability caused by the U.S. attack
on Iran. Corrales said Spain’s booming economy — which grew by 2.8 percent in
2025, and is projected to expand by over 2 percent this year — could be
undermined by surging inflation if the war lasts long.
“The truth is that we may be facing a crisis with significant repercussions,” he
said. “This latest war is already going to have consequences for the American
economy, but the Trump administration is also going to have to pay for the
damage it’s wrought on the global economy sooner or later.”
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Während Kanzler Friedrich Merz nach seinem Besuch im Oval Office die Rückreise
antritt, schlägt die geopolitische Realität in Deutschland voll ein. Steigende
Gaspreise, fallende Börsenkurse und die Zwei-Euro-Marke an den Tankstellen
bringen die mühsam geplante Konjunkturbelebung ins Wanken. Gordon Repinski
analysiert direkt aus Washington, ob Merz bei Donald Trump etwas erreicht hat
und wie der Kanzler nun die Wirtschaft – und der CDU-Chef die anstehenden
Wahlkämpfe – stabilisieren will.
Im 200-Sekunden-Interview mit Rasmus Buchsteiner fordert Sven Schulze,
Ministerpräsident von Sachsen-Anhalt und CDU-Spitzenkandidat, sofortige
Konsequenzen aus der Krise. Schulze macht deutlich, dass die Union so kurz vor
den Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg und Rheinland-Pfalz keine Zeit zum
Zögern hat.
Außerdem: Senior Political Columnist Jonathan Martin bespricht mit Gordon, wie
sich Merz bei seinem Trump-Besuch geschlagen hat, warum der US-Präsident an der
eigenen Basis viel riskiert und weshalb er sich womöglich vom Erfolg der
Blitz-Intervention in Venezuela hat blenden lassen.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski
und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international,
hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet
jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos
abonnieren.
Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski:
Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.
POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH
Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin
Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0
information@axelspringer.de
Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B
USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390
Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna
**(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht der PKV: Wir sind die
Fair-zu-Jugendlichen-Versicherung. Warum? Weil wir die wachsende Zahl älterer
Menschen versorgen können, ohne die Jüngeren damit zu belasten. Dafür bilden wir
von Versicherungsbeginn an Rücklagen, die stetig Zinsen einbringen. Für unsere
Versicherten haben wir so bereits über 350 Milliarden Euro zurückgelegt, um ihre
mit dem Alter steigenden Behandlungskosten abzusichern. Mehr auf pkv.de**
The Swedish economy will only get a boost if the government stops acting like
Tottenham Hotspur football club, according to the country’s former finance
minister.
Mikael Damberg, of the opposition Social Democrats, used a parliamentary debate
to compare the government’s handling of the economy to the woes of the north
London football club.
Damberg described Spurs as “one of England’s most distinguished clubs, a rich
club with an enormous stadium, dedicated and large supporter base, everything to
be considered a top team.”
However, he said that “despite this, Tottenham find themselves in crisis. They
are fighting at the bottom of the table, just a few points from the relegation
zone. Not because they lack resources, not because they lack benefits, but
because they have squandered their opportunities.”
Spurs are currently 16th in the 20-team Premier League, just five points clear
of the relegation zone. They sacked their manager, Thomas Frank, earlier this
month, replacing him with Igor Tudor.
Damberg, who was finance minister from 2021 to 2022, said that the word “Spursy”
was even used “when you have opportunities but get no results.”
He added that “conditions exist for the Swedish economy to prosper but due to a
misdirected economic policy … the government risks making Sweden ‘Spursy.'”
“Sweden can’t perform like Tottenham.”
Spurs have two Swedish players on the books: Dejan Kulusevski and Lucas
Bergvall.
ATHENS — Yannis Stournaras was campaigning for eurobonds long before it was
trendy.
But now the Bank of Greece Governor is setting his sights on his toughest
audience yet: The German government.
In an interview with POLITICO, Stournaras said the arguments are on his side.
Back-to-back crises have left heavy debt burdens on the shoulders of EU
governments, limiting the power of the public purse to tackle challenges posed
by U.S. trade tariffs, Russia’s war in Ukraine and Chinese threats to limit
exports of critical raw materials
Without common bonds to fund defense, the green transition and strategic
investments, the EU’s economy will fail to compete on the global stage. What’s
more, Stournaras has the German and Dutch central banks on his side after the
European Central Bank ended a 15-year internal feud over the need for “a common
European, highly liquid, euro-wide benchmark safe asset” — in short, eurobonds.
The ECB’s Governing Council of central bankers issued their rallying call to EU
leaders during an informal summit earlier this month. It’s time governments got
on board too, according to Stournaras.
“The present international environment has been a wake-up call to European
policymakers,” the 69-year-old said. “The resulting political momentum is
certainly promising.”
His optimism contrasts with continued opposition from German Chancellor
Friedrich Merz, who rejected the idea outright at an EU summit last week.
“I do worry,” Stournaras said about continued pushback from Berlin. “But I’d
like to convince them.”
Stournaras, who served as Greek finance minister from 2012 to 2014 before moving
to the central bank, certainly has a lot of practice in such advocacy. He had
long found himself isolated, along with his Italian colleague, on the Governing
Council. During the height of the sovereign debt crisis, their position was
often ascribed to national interest, as their countries stood to benefit
disproportionately from shared borrowing.
“Some years ago, we were one, maximum two Governing Council members arguing in
favor of eurobonds,” Stournaras recalled. “The rest of us thought, ‘You are
coming from the European South, so it’s understandable.’ But now we have all
realized how important it is.” Now, even Germany’s Bundesbank, the de
facto leader of the skeptics, has turned.
As Stournaras sees it, the fact that southern EU countries that were teetering
on the brink of bankruptcy a decade ago are now performing well has helped to
shift views. Certainly, the subsidy from Berlin to other capitals that is
implicit in joint borrowing has shrunk sharply. The infamous “spreads,” which
represent how much more Greece and Italy had to pay than Germany to borrow for
10 years, now stand at less than 1 percentage point.
INVESTOR APPETITE
The most powerful argument, however, is a clear message from investors that all
of Europe will benefit from joint debt, Stournaras argued.
“If you talk to any important wealth manager, either in Europe or in the United
States, and ask her why most of the current account surplus we have in Europe is
flowing abroad, she will tell you that the lack of sufficient safe assets is the
critical issue,” he said. “It is even more important than the rate of return.”
Joint issuance should serve “well-defined common European purposes,” Stournaras
said. “You have three common needs in Europe that can be funded commonly.
Defense, green transition, innovation.”
Advocates of joint borrowing argue that a more liquid market for safe euro
assets will enhance the region’s relative attractiveness for global capital, at
a time when the reliability and desirability of dollar assets are coming under
increasing scrutiny. Competing with the dollar for global reserve currency
status could ultimately — if only gradually — lower the cost of borrowing and
investing for governments, companies and households.
The Greek declined to say how much new debt, exactly, would be needed to make a
real change to financial conditions in Europe, but said there needs to be
meaningful amounts of both short- and long-term issuance. Short-term debt serves
largely as a place for investors to ‘park’ money temporarily, while long-term
debt typically provides a benchmark price for private-sector projects with long
pay-off periods, such as infrastructure.
MORAL HAZARD
Stournaras stressed that eurobonds “cannot become a substitute for sound
national fiscal frameworks.” But he argued that new rules or oversight bodies
are also unnecessary.
The central banker pointed to past experience — specifically the €800 billion
post-pandemic recovery fund — as a successful precedent. “Crucially, [recovery
fund] financing was linked to clearly-defined European objectives, time-bound
commitments and reform conditionality. This architecture helped alleviate moral
hazard, while enhancing credibility in markets,” he said.
Critics would argue that moral hazard wasn’t completely removed. Under Prime
Minister Giuseppe Conte, Italy, in particular, helped to finance its
budget-busting “Superbonus” tax credit with NGEU money, forcing Conte’s
successor Giorgia Meloni into drastic corrective action in recent years.
The debate over Europe’s financial architecture is proving more exciting this
year than the near-term monetary policy outlook. Stournaras said that “the euro
area economy remains in a good place” with inflation projected to converge to
the ECB’s 2 percent target over the medium term and the economic activity
proving resilient.
He acknowledged that the risks to growth and inflation appeared broadly
two-sided. But on balance, he said, there’s a “slightly higher” chance of the
ECB’s next move being down rather than up.
In any case, he said, there is no reason to hold one’s breath: “Unless the sky
falls on our head, don’t expect sexy news from Frankfurt this year.”
BRUSSELS — U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland were the
“epiphany moment” for Europe’s six largest economies to club together and speed
up financial market reform, Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo told
POLITICO.
The new group, dubbed “E6” in Brussels, is an exclusive club among the EU’s six
largest economies — France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland —
designed to break political deadlocks that have hamstrung efforts to create a
U.S.-style financial market over the last decade.
Without action, the six countries fear that Europe’s economy will fail to keep
pace with the U.S. and China, and be further squeezed in a geopolitical world
that has become increasingly transactional.
The goal is to put “politically difficult discussions on the table to be able to
unlock files that have been locked so far,” said Cuerpo, who has long campaigned
to make EU bodies better at delivering concrete policy decisions. “Building
those bridges can then be a good first step towards an overall solution.”
The club will also help the six countries coordinate ahead of G7 meetings with
Canada, Japan, and the U.S. on strategic issues, such as securing access to
critical rare materials, following China’s threat to restrict exports.
The E6 club has only convened twice and is already aiming to present EU leaders
with specific proposals at the next European Council summit in March.
Critics, such as Ireland and Portugal, fear the six-country club could trigger a
two-speed Europe, in which the biggest nations will sideline smaller countries
that disagree with E6’s agenda — especially when it comes to creating a watchdog
to supervise the bloc’s biggest financiers.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested that EU
countries should break off into smaller groups and pursue financial integration
through “enhanced cooperation,” if the so-called Savings and Investments Union
doesn’t progress by June.
To focus minds, von der Leyen will produce a roadmap that the E6 hopes to
contribute toward, complete with a list of reforms and deadlines for leaders to
discuss. The Commission’s first significant policy will be a “28th regime,” an
EU-wide legal framework due March 18 that’ll offer companies certain uniform
rules to operate easily across the bloc.
A SUPERGROUP IS BORN
The spark that triggered E6’s emergence came during a ministerial breakfast of
coffee and croissants in Brussels on a cold January morning, when Cuerpo’s
frustration over EU inaction boiled over.
Trump had thrown the NATO alliance into disarray with his renewed demands to
“own” Greenland, right after removing the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from
power. None of these topics had made it onto the ministers’ monthly Ecofin
agenda, triggering an outburst from Cuerpo, who lamented the lack of political
debate over Europe’s relationship with the U.S.
His outburst couldn’t have come at a better time for the finance ministers of
France and Germany. The two men, Roland Lescure and Lars Klingbeil, had met just
24 hours earlier to discuss how best to revive EU economic initiatives that had
grown stagnant. Invitations for a virtual meeting among E6 countries arrived
within a week.
Roland Lescure (right) and Lars Klingbeil met to discuss how best to revive EU
economic initiatives that had grown stagnant. | Bernd von Jutrczenka/picture
alliance via Getty Images
“Lars and Roland pushed to convene all six of us and that’s how it got started,”
Cuerpo said.
Monday’s discussion focused on strengthening supply chains to critical rare
materials and how to quickly progress on deepening the bloc’s financial markets.
These included cutting red tape and introducing the so-called 28th regime.
The next E6 meeting on March 9 will home in on promoting investment in defense
and how to promote the euro on the international stage.
MIXED RECEPTION
The reception from outside the exclusive group has been mixed.
Some believe the E6 could lead to meaningful change, while others fear their
voices will be drowned out in the pursuit of swift progress. There’s a third
group that believes the six countries will struggle to find common ground at
all.
Portugal’s finance minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, urged the six countries
to respect the EU’s treaties during the Eurogroup on Monday after Germany’s
Klingbeil briefed his peers on E6 discussions — a transparency pledge that
failed to appease all skeptical ministers and their aides.
“EU supervision was the elephant in the room,” one diplomat who attended the
Eurogroup said. “I’m surprised more people didn’t speak up.”
Legally speaking, the E6 needs at least nine countries to pursue enhanced
cooperation. Even then, the legal workaround is only possible once an initiative
fails to muster enough support at EU level. Meanwhile, securing a qualified
majority to push legislation through requires the backing of 15 countries that
represent at least 65 percent of the total EU population. So, the E6 will need
allies to advance its goals in any case.
To assuage concerns over E6, Cuerpo is encouraging outside countries to join
other discussion forums, such as the “Competitiveness Lab,” an open format
launched a year ago, to develop common initiatives among governments seeking to
deepen their capital markets.
In the meantime, Cuerpo is urging skeptical countries to put their faith in
something new, beyond Brussels’ creaking legislative machine.
“There are no red lines in the discussions within this group,” Cuerpo said. “I
think that should be for the benefit of everyone.”
Bjarke Smith-Meyer contributed to this report from Brussels.
It might be premature for succession talks over the European Central Bank
presidency, considering incumbent Christine Lagarde still has 18 months left in
her eight-year reign.
But speculation is rife after recent reports suggested the Frenchwoman could
step down ahead of her planned exit date of Oct. 31, 2027, fast-tracking the
debate over who will secure the most powerful economic post in Europe.
Lagarde’s job is among three high-ranking vacancies that will emerge on the
ECB’s six-person executive board next year.
Eurozone leaders will have the final say on who gets a seat at the table, as
part of a horse-trading exercise that considers who occupies the most
influential positions in the EU — and what passports they hold.
As Brussels girds itself for the usual undignified and thoroughly untransparent
horse-trading, here’s your essential and speculative guide to understanding the
looming ECB race.
WHO’S THE FAVORITE TO SUCCEED LAGARDE?
Klaas Knot, the two-term governor of the Dutch central bank and former head of
the Financial Stability Board, has all the experience and qualifications needed
for the job.
A noted belt-tightening fiscal hawk in his first term, Knot softened his stance
as the sovereign debt crisis was mastered, seemingly with one eye on the
succession in Frankfurt.
Some of the ECB’s current top brass see him as a little too close to
politicians, but that may not count against him given it’s heads of government
who make the appointment.
On the minus side, Knot is currently out of the policy circuit, leaving him with
no official machinery to help him campaign. That will count against him the
longer the situation lasts, so anything that sounds like a starting pistol will
be music to his ears.
WHO’S THE INSIDER FAVORITE?
Pablo Hernández de Cos, the former Bank of Spain governor, now running the Bank
for International Settlements, is another highly qualified candidate.
De Cos restored the Bank of Spain’s reputation after years of muddled and
politically compromised leadership. However, building that reputation involved
criticizing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government for its timid pension
reform, which may cost him political support in Madrid.
Also, moving De Cos from the standard-setting body in Basel might cost Europe a
prestigious and influential seat in global finance, given the antagonism of the
current U.S. administration toward Europe’s elite. Madrid has also long stated
its desire to advance someone for the ECB presidency.
WHERE’S GERMANY IN ALL THIS?
There’s a strong sense — at least in Berlin — that it’s Germany’s turn to have
an ECB president after watching two French presidents and one Italian play fast
and loose with the formidable legacy of the Bundesbank and the Deutsche Mark
over the last 20 years. Three candidates could put themselves forward for the
job.
Klaas Knot, the two-term governor of the Dutch central bank and former head of
the Financial Stability Board, has all the experience and qualifications needed
for the job. | Mateo Lanzuela/Europa Press via Getty Images
Isabel Schnabel: The ECB’s current head of markets is keen on the position and
has recently developed a conspicuous penchant for upbeat, big-picture takes on
Europe’s future, which may or may not be aimed at reassuring Southern Europe
that she is more than just a typical German hawk.
However, precedent is against giving anyone a second term on the board and ECB
insiders suggest she can be a somewhat divisive personality.
Joachim Nagel: The current Bundesbank president is a more emollient figure, but
has clashed more than once with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, most recently on the
thorny issue of allowing the EU to issue more joint debt.
A member of the Social Democratic Party, Merz’s junior partner in Berlin, Nagel
may also be more useful to Merz in keeping the SPD onside in the debate over
domestic policy than he would be across town at ECB headquarters.
Jörg Kukies: Having been finance minister under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kukies
has all the political connections he might need to secure the job. Although an
SPD member like Nagel, Kukies’ politics are highly pragmatic and are unlikely to
prevent Merz from supporting him.
Isabel Schnabel, the ECB’s current head of markets is keen on the position and
has recently developed a conspicuous penchant for upbeat, big-picture takes on
Europe’s future.
And, like ex-ECB President Mario Draghi before him, financial markets will like
the fact that he also spent years at Goldman Sachs
WHO’S THE FALL-BACK OPTION?
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has a decent
resume but lacks the direct political patronage at the head-of-government level
that would normally be needed to land the role.
However, at least her native country, Bulgaria, is now actually part of the
eurozone, and no one should rule out the possibility of someone thinking of her
after 16 hours of rancorous haggling in Brussels.
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Die AfD ringt mit sich selbst. Ausgerechnet in Sachsen-Anhalt, wo sie eine
Alleinregierung nach den Landtagswahlen im September anstrebt, stehen Vorwürfe
der Vetternwirtschaft im Raum. Die Verwandtenaffäre betrifft auch weitere
Landesverbände. Pauline von Pezold und Frederik Schindler kennen weitere, bisher
noch nicht bekannte Fälle. Sie sprechen darüber, aber auch wie der
Bundesvorstand um eine Position dazu ringt und wie sehr die Vorgänge der AfD in
diesem Wahljahr schaden könnten.
Außerdem geht es um den Spitzenkandidaten in Baden-Württemberg und den
außenpolitischen Sprecher der Bundestagsfraktion, Markus Frohnmaier. Er reist
kurz vor der Landtagswahl erneut in die USA. Warum Frohnmaier das ferne
Washington wichtiger ist als der heimische Wahlkampf, erfahrt ihr im Podcast.
Und: In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern führt Leif-Erik Holm die AfD als Landeschef und
Spitzenkandidat in die Wahl. In einem ausführlichen Gespräch äußert er sich zur
Beschäftigung von Verwandten und grenzt sich auch in Ton und Auftreten von
Ulrich Siegmund ab, der AfD-Hoffnung in Sachsen-Anhalt. Das Gespräch mit Holm
hat Gordon Repinski für den POLITICO Berlin Playbook Podcast geführt. Es ist ab
Samstagmorgen in voller Länge hier zu hören.
„Inside AfD“ ist der POLITICO-Deutschland-Podcast über die umstrittenste Partei
des Landes. Trotz Radikalisierung und Beobachtung durch den Verfassungsschutz
wächst die AfD weiter. Wie ist das möglich? Was treibt ihre Anhänger, Strategen
und Gegner an? Wie funktioniert das Innenleben der Partei? Und was bedeutet ihr
Aufstieg für das politische System Deutschlands? Antworten liefern immer
mittwochs Pauline von Pezold von POLITICO und Frederik Schindler von WELT —
unaufgeregt, aber kritisch.
Fragen und Feedback gern an insideafd@politico.eu.
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