LONDON — Victory is finally in sight for the Bank of England. But rate cuts
aren’t.
It’s taken Britain’s central bank longer to bring inflation under control than
any of its peers on the global stage, but on Thursday economists expect
forecasts to show that inflation in the U.K. will return to the government’s 2
percent target within the next two years, having overshot it for almost all of
the last four.
The pound surged to its highest level against the dollar in five years last
month, as global confidence in the anchor of the world’s financial system
appeared to fray due to the news flow out of the U.S.
But there will be little else to set the pulse racing: Financial market
participants are almost unanimous in expecting no change in the Bank rate from
its current 3.75 percent.
Even the extraordinary events of January, which saw the U.S. seize Venezuelan
leader Nicolas Maduro and U.S. President Donald Trump threaten military force
against his NATO allies over Greenland, seem unlikely to induce a shift in the
Bank’s communication about the U.K.’s economic outlook.
Extrapolating how these seismic events will translate into the U.K. economy has
been hard. One of the more hawkish members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy
Committee, Megan Greene, argued in a speech last month that while a stronger
pound should help keep the cost of imports down, it could easily be offset by
other factors, especially if the U.S. Federal Reserve were to be pressured by
the White House into cutting U.S. interest rates more aggressively.
Greene argued the MPC should focus on what is in its power to control. Here, the
Bank is facing a familiar conundrum: growth is sluggish and unemployment is
trending higher, but inflation is coming down — even if painfully slowly — and
most business surveys suggest wage growth will continue to outstrip what is
justified by productivity.
Headline inflation ticked up again in December to 3.4 percent, still far above
the 2 percent target. The latest data suggest that the economy is still more or
less ticking along, growing at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the three months
through November.
STILL ‘GRADUAL AND CAUTIOUS’
The narrow vote by the MPC to cut the Bank rate to 3.75 percent from 4 percent
at its last meeting in December — and the unwavering message from the Bank that
it will take a “gradual and cautious” approach to easing policy — means the
committee will stay put on Thursday, according to Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay
Raja.
UBS economist Anna Titareva, meanwhile, reckons the vote will be split, with
both Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden capable of voting
again for a cut alongside Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra, the two external
members most concerned about the risks of a slowdown and an accompanying rise in
joblessness. But that scenario would still leave Bailey in the minority against
the remaining five of nine members in the committee.
Most analysts still expect the Bank to cut interest rates twice this year.
Inflation is set to fall from April as Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision to
strip green levies off energy bills causes a drop in final prices for
electricity.
Deutsche’s Raja expects cuts in March and again in June, but says rates are
unlikely to fall any further after that.
Tag - Growth
The UK has historically been a global leader in life sciences innovation, but
recent statistics paint a worrying picture for medicines access. The right
policy can start to reverse this.
We are living in a time where the intersection between breakthrough science,
technology and data insights has the potential to transform treatment options
for some of the toughest health conditions faced by patients in the UK.
The UK has long played a central role in driving innovation when it comes to
healthcare, and at Johnson & Johnson (J&J) we were pleased to see some positive
signs from the Government at the end of 2025, illustrating an intent to reverse
a decade of decline of investment in how the UK values innovative treatments.
It was a positive first step, but now the real work begins to enable us to
deliver the best possible outcomes for UK patients. To achieve this, our focus
must be on ensuring our health system is set up to match the pace and gain the
benefits of innovation that science provides. We need a supportive medicines
environment that fully fosters growth, because even the most pioneering drugs
and therapies are only valuable if they can be accessed by patients when they
need them most.
> even the most pioneering drugs and therapies are only valuable if they can be
> accessed by patients when they need them most.
At J&J, we are proud to have been part of the UK’s health innovation story for
more than a century. We believe that turning ambition into delivery requires a
clearer focus on the foundations that enable innovation to reach patients. We
have had a substantial and long-term economic presence, with our expertise
serving as the grounds for successful partnerships with patients, healthcare
providers, clinical researchers and the NHS.
Recent national developments are a step in the right direction
The UK Government’s recent announcements on the life sciences industry are an
important move to help address concerns around medicines access, innovation and
the UK’s international standing. This includes a welcome planned increase to the
baseline cost-effectiveness threshold (the first change to be made since its
introduction in the early 2000s).
While it is crucial to get this implemented properly, this seems like a step in
the right direction — providing a starting point towards meaningful policy
reform, industry partnership and progress for patients.
The true impact of stifling medicine innovation in the UK compared with our
peers
These positive developments come at a critical time, but they do not fix
everything.
Over the past decade, spending on branded medicines has fallen in real terms,
even as the NHS budget has grown by a third.[i] Years of cost-containment have
left the UK health system ill-prepared for the health challenges of today, with
short-term savings creating long-term consequences. Right now, access to
innovative medicines in the UK lags behind almost every major European
country[ii]; the UK ranks 16th and 18th among 19 comparable countries for
preventable and treatable causes of mortality.[iii]These are conditions for
which effective medicines already exist.
Even when new medicines are approved, access is often restricted. One year after
launch, usage of innovative treatments in England is just over half the average
of comparator countries such as France, Germany and Spain.[iv] The effect is
that people living with cancer, autoimmune conditions and rare diseases wait
longer to access therapies that are already transforming lives elsewhere in
Europe.
And even at its new level, the UK’s Voluntary Scheme for Branded Medicines
Pricing, Access and Growth (VPAG) clawback rate remains higher than in
comparable countries.[v] J&J is committed to working together to develop a new
pricing and access framework that is stable, predictable and internationally
competitive — enabling the UK to regain its position as a leading destination
for life sciences.
Seeing the value of health and medicines investment as a catalyst for prosperity
and growth
Timely access to the right treatment achieves two things; it keeps people
healthy and prevents disease worsening so they can participate in society and a
thriving economy. New research from the WifOR Institute, funded by J&J, shows
that countries that allocate more resources to health — especially when combined
with a skilled workforce and strong infrastructure — consistently achieve better
outcomes.[vi]
> Timely access to the right treatment achieves two things; it keeps people
> healthy and prevents disease worsening so they can participate in society and
> a thriving economy.
The UK Government’s recent recognition of the need for long-term change, setting
out plans to increase investment in new medicines from 0.3 percent of GDP to 0.6
percent over the next 10 years is positive. It signals a move towards seeing
health as one of our smartest long-term investments, underpinning the UK’s
international competitiveness by beginning to bring us nearer to the levels in
other major European countries.
This mindset shift is critical to getting medicines to patients, and the life
sciences ecosystem, including the pharmaceutical sector as a cornerstone, plays
a pivotal role. It operates as a virtuous cycle — driven by the generation,
production, investment in, access to and uptake of innovation. Exciting
scientific developments and evolving treatment pathways mean that we have an
opportunity to review the structures around medicines reimbursement to ensure
they remain sustainable, competitive and responsive. At J&J, we have the
knowledge and heritage to work hand-in-hand with the Government and all partners
to achieve this.
Together, we can realise the potential of medicine innovation in the UK
Patients have the right to expect that science and innovation will reach them
when they need it. Innovative treatments can be transformative for patients,
meaning an improved quality of life or more precious time with loved ones.
We fully support the Government’s ambitions for life sciences and the health of
the nation. Now is the moment to deliver meaningful change — the NHS, Government
and all system partners, including J&J, must look at what valuing innovation
actually means when it comes to modernising the frameworks and mechanisms that
support access and uptake. Practical ways to do this include:
* Establishing a new pricing and access framework that is stable, predictable
and internationally competitive.
* Evolving medicines appraisal methods and processes, to deliver on the
commitments of the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal.
* Adapting thresholds and value frameworks to ensure they are fit for the
future — in the context of wider system pressures, including inflation, and
the evolution of medical innovation requiring new approaches to assessment
and access.
> the NHS, Government and all system partners, including J&J, must look at what
> valuing innovation actually means when it comes to modernising the frameworks
> and mechanisms that support access and uptake.
By truly recognising the value of health as an investment, rather than as a
cost, we can return the UK to a more competitive position. The direction of
travel is positive. At J&J, we stand ready to work in partnership to help ensure
the UK is once again the best place in the world to research, develop and access
medicines.
Follow Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine UK on LinkedIn for updates on our
business, our people and our community.
CP-562703 | January 2026
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[i] House of Commons Library (2026). ‘NHS Funding and Expenditure’ Research
Briefing. Available at:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00724/ (Accessed
January 2026).
[ii] IQVIA & EFPIA (2025). EFPIA Patients W.A.I.T Indicator 2024 Survey.
Available at:
https://efpia.eu/media/oeganukm/efpia-patients-wait-indicator-2024-final-110425.pdf.
(Accessed January 2026)
[iii] The Kings Fund (2022). ‘How does the NHS compare to the health care
systems of other countries?’ Available at:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/reports/nhs-compare-health-care-systems-other-countries
(Accessed January 2026)
[iv] Office for Life Sciences (2024). Life sciences competitiveness indicators
2024: summary. Available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/life-sciences-sector-data-2024/life-sciences-competitiveness-indicators-2024-summary
(Accessed January 2026).
[v] ABPI. VPAG payment rate for newer medicines will be 14.5% in 2026. December
2025. Available at:
https://www.abpi.org.uk/media/news/2025/december/vpag-payment-rate-for-newer-medicines-will-be-145-in-2026/.
(Accessed January 2026).
[vi] WifOR Institute (2025). Healthy Returns: A Catalyst for Economic Growth and
Resilience. Available at:
https://www.wifor.com/en/download/healthy-returns-a-catalyst-for-economic-growth-and-resilience/?wpdmdl=360794&refresh=6942abe7a7f511765977063.
(Accessed January 2026).
The eurozone economy held up well at the end of 2025, with three of the region’s
four largest countries growing by more than expected.
Preliminary data from the EU’s statistical office, Eurostat, on Friday showed
that the eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3 percent during the last three months
of last year, unchanged from the third quarter. That was better than market
expectations of an increase of 0.2 percent. In year-on-year terms, gross
domestic product growth slowed by less than feared, to 1.3 percent from 1.4
percent in the previous quarter.
GDP was up 0.3 percent in Germany, the region’s biggest economy, and by 0.4
percent and 0.8 percent in Italy and Spain, respectively. The standout
underperformer was France, where it was stagnant, held back by a political
deadlock that delayed the approval of a budget for 2026.
Eurostat’s numbers still showed the scars of the U.S.-driven trade war that
overshadowed the economy all through last year. Ireland, whose GDP figures are
heavily influenced by trade and financial flows between it and the U.S.,
registered a sharp contraction of 0.6 percent in the final three months of the
year.
Eurostat gave no analysis of its numbers, but the figures were likely supported
by the fall in global energy prices toward the end of last year. This typically
helps European spending power, given that Europe is a net importer of energy.
The U.K. and China have announced a new services partnership to support British
businesses operating in China, including through visa-free travel for short
stays.
The partnership will see Beijing relax its visa rules for British citizens,
adding the U.K. to its visa-free list of countries. This will enable visits of
up to 30 days for business and tourism without the need for a visa. The timings
of the visa change have not yet been set out.
The partnership focuses on better collaboration for businesses in healthcare,
financial and professional services, legal services, education and skills —
areas where British firms often face regulatory or administrative hurdles.
Britain and China have also agreed to conduct a “feasibility study” to explore
whether to enter negotiations towards a bilateral services agreement. If it
proceeds, this would establish clear and legally binding rules for U.K. firms
doing business in China.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “As one of the world’s economic powerhouses,
businesses have been crying out for ways to grow their footprints in China.
“We’ll make it easier for them to do so – including via relaxed visa rules for
short-term travel — supporting them to expand abroad, all while boosting growth
and jobs at home.”
The U.K. and China have also signed pacts covering co-operation on conformity
assessments for exports from the U.K. to China, food safety, animal, and plant
quarantine health and the work the UK-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission.
The two sides aren’t planning to publish the full texts of the pacts.
BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that Europe will not withstand
a new era of rising great-power imperialism unless it embraces the logic of hard
power.
“We will only be able to implement our ideas in the world, at least in part, if
we ourselves learn to speak the language of power politics, if we ourselves
become a European power,” Merz said Thursday during a speech in Germany’s
federal parliament.
Merz’s comments build on a speech the chancellor gave last week at the World
Economic Forum in Davos in which he warned of a “radically changing” U.S. and “a
new world of great powers being built on power, on strength, and when it comes
to it, on force.” Merz said Thursday that Europe must embrace the logic of hard
military and economic power in order to preserve Europe as a force for democracy
in the world.
“We are, in fact, a normative alternative to imperialism and autocracy in the
world,” Merz said. “We have something to offer our partners around the world,
both economically and, above all, in terms of our ideals.”
Merz also joined other European leaders in condemning U.S. President Donald
Trump’s comment last week that NATO allies had stayed “a little off the front
lines” during the war in Afghanistan, a statement that sparked outrage in
Europe’s capitals. During the nearly 20-year mission in Afghanistan, launched in
response to the September 11 attacks on the U.S., 59 German soldiers lost their
lives.
“We will not allow this mission, which we also carried out in the interests of
our ally, the United States of America, to be disparaged and belittled today,”
Merz said to sustained applause. “I would like to say once again to our soldiers
on duty and at their bases today that your service was and is valuable.”
Given Germany’s ongoing dependence on U.S. military power for its own defense,
Merz has been reluctant to openly criticize Trump even as he warns that Europe
must prepare to go it alone as the U.S.-led global order crumbles.
On Thursday, he urged the German public and European allies to seek to preserve
the alliance with the U.S. to the degree possible.
“We should not recklessly jeopardize established alliances,” Merz said. “The
transatlantic alliance and transatlantic trust are still valuable in their own
right today. For us in Germany, this is particularly true.”
At the same time, Merz is pushing to make Germany more militarily independent of
the U.S. Shortly after becoming chancellor last May, Merz vowed to take more
responsibility for Europe’s defense by building the strongest conventional army
in Europe.
BEIJING — Dialogue between the U.K. and China is essential for “world peace,”
Chinese President Xi Jinping told Keir Starmer Thursday, heaping praise on
Britain’s center-left prime minister as the two men marked a thawing of their
relationship.
The U.K. prime minister said he wanted “more sophisticated” ties with the
world’s second-largest economy, during a visit where he is seeking growth for
the British economy and co-operation on issues such as climate change.
It is the first visit by a U.K. prime minister to China for eight years, which
has proven controversial in Britain due to concerns over Beijing’s human rights
record, economic imbalances and accusations of cyber sabotage in Britain by
Chinese entities.
But in remarks at the start of their meeting in Beijing’s Great Hall of the
People, both men avoided difficult issues and heaped praise on each other’s
countries.
After years of chilled relations under Conservative U.K. governments, Starmer
said: “China is a vital player on the global stage and it is vital to build a
more sophisticated relationship, where we can identify opportunities to
collaborate, but also to allow meaningful dialogue on areas where we disagree.”
Communist leader Xi, speaking through an interpreter, singled out Britain’s
Labour Party, saying it had in the past “made important contributions to the
growth of China-U.K. relations.” He added that there had been “twists and turns
that did not serve the interests of our countries” in recent years.
Describing the state of the world as “turbulent and fluid,” Xi said more
dialogue between the two nations was “imperative,” whether “for the sake of
world peace and stability or for our two countries’ economies and peoples.”
He added the two men would “stand the test of history” if they could rise above
their differences.
Acknowledging the furor over China in the U.K., Xi said: “Your visit this time
has drawn a lot of attention. Sometimes good things take time.
“As long as it is the right thing that serves the fundamental interests of the
country and the people, then as leaders we should not shy away from
difficulties.”
Starmer has tried to take a more measured approach than Canadian Prime Minister
Mark Carney, who warned the world order was fractured after his recent trip to
Beijing and was later threatened with tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Starmer has insisted he can pursue trade with the U.S., EU and China at the same
time in a way that protects national security.
The U.K. prime minister said he wanted to focus on “global stability and
security, growth and shared challenges like climate change.”
Starmer did not raise specific human rights concerns or policy detail during his
brief on-camera remarks, though he did make reference to having “meaningful
dialogue” on areas where the countries disagree.
Ahead of the meeting, Starmer declined to say whether he would raise Russia’s
war in Ukraine with Xi, or whether he would ask the Chinese leader to put
pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the fighting.
China and the U.K. are due to sign a series of deals later on Thursday. They are
expected to cover areas including visa-free travel and mutual recognition of
professional qualifications, but collaboration on deeper technology including
wind farms appeared less likely.
LONDON — Keir Starmer lands in China trying to do everything at once.
As his government searches desperately for economic growth, the prime minister’s
policy is to cooperate, compete with, and, where appropriate, challenge the
Asian superpower. That’s easier said than done.
POLITICO asked five China analysts — ranging from former government ministers to
ex-diplomats — to give their honest take on how the British PM should handle the
days ahead.
DON’T LECTURE — VINCE CABLE, FORMER BUSINESS SECRETARY
Vince Cable, who visited China three times as U.K. business secretary between
2010 and 2015, says Starmer must not give Chinese President Xi Jinping public
lectures.
It will be tempting, given China’s human rights record. U.K. lawmakers are
particularly concerned about Beijing’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims and Hong
Kongers.
“From experience, that just antagonizes people. They’ll respond in kind and will
remind us about all the bad things the British have done throughout our history.
You’ll get absolutely nowhere,” Cable, a former Liberal Democrat leader who
wrote “The Chinese Conundrum: Engagement or Conflict” after leaving office,
said.
Raising concerns in private is more likely to get a positive result, he thinks.
“Although I’m by no means an admirer of President [Donald] Trump … his approach,
which is business-like and uses actually quite respectful language in public,
has actually had far more success in dealing with the Chinese than the
traditional missionary approach of some Western European countries,” Cable
adds.
LISTEN AND SPEAK UP — BEN BLAND, CHATHAM HOUSE ASIA-PACIFIC PROGRAM DIRECTOR
Ben Bland, director of the Chatham House think tank’s Asia-Pacific program,
warns there can’t be a return to the “naive optimism” of the “golden era” under
Cameron.
Britain should “listen to the Chinese leadership and try and understand more
about how [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and other senior communist leaders see
the world, how they see China,” the former Financial Times South China
correspondent says.
“The U.K.’s ability to influence China directly is quite limited, but it’s
really important that we understand what they’re trying to do in the world.”
Starmer should be clear about the U.K.’s red lines on espionage, interference in
British society, and the harassment of people living in this country, Bland
says.
Vince Cable, who visited China three times as U.K. business secretary between
2010 and 2015, says Starmer must not give Chinese President Xi Jinping public
lectures. | Andy Rain/EPA
TREAT TRADE CAUTIOUSLY — CHARLES PARTON, FORMER DIPLOMAT
“The Chinese are adept at the propaganda of these visits, and ensuring that
everything seems wonderful,” Charles Parton, an ex-diplomat who was First
Counsellor to the EU Delegation in Beijing between 2011 and 2016, warns.
“There’s an awful lot of strange counting going on of [investment] deals that
have already been signed, deals that are on the cards to be signed [and] deals
that are glimmers in the eye and almost certainly won’t be signed,” Parton, now
an adviser to the Council on Geostrategy think tank, says.
“Trade is highly fungible. It’s not political,” Parton, who is also a senior
associate at the Royal United Services Institute, adds.
“We shouldn’t be saying to ourselves ‘oh my gosh, we better knuckle down to
whatever the Chinese want of us, because otherwise our trade and investment will
suffer’,” he believes.
“If you can push through trade investment which is beneficial — excellent.
That’s great, but let’s not think that this is the be-all and end-all,” he
warns.
SEE CHINA AS IT IS — LUKE DE PULFORD, INTER-PARLIAMENTARY ALLIANCE ON CHINA
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Luke De Pulford, executive director of the hawkish global cross-party
Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, is skeptical about the timing of
Starmer’s China trip — a week after ministers gave planning approval for
Beijing’s controversial mega embassy in London.
“Going to China against that backdrop, to look as if you’re going to make
national security concessions in the hope of economic preferment, is unwise,” he
says.
He is also doubtful that closer ties with Beijing will improve the British
economy.
“All of the evidence seems to point towards China investing in the U.K. only in
as far as it suits their strategic interests,” De Pulford says. “There’s a lot
to lose and not very much to gain.”
Prioritizing the U.K. agenda will be paramount for Starmer.
“There’s nothing wrong at all with visiting China if you’re going to represent
your interests and the United Kingdom’s interests,” he says, while remaining
doubtful that this will be achieved.
SET OUT A CHINA STRATEGY — EVIE ASPINALL, BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY GROUP DIRECTOR
Securing a “symbolic, long-term relationship” with China should be a priority
for Starmer, Evie Aspinall, who leads the non-partisan British Foreign Policy
Group think tank, says.
She wants the U.K.’s China Audit to be published in full, warning businesses
“don’t have a strong understanding of what the U.K.’s approach is.”
The audit was launched in late 2024 to allow the government to understand
Beijing’s threats and opportunities, but its findings have not been published in
detail because much of its content is classified.
“I think that’s a fundamental limitation,” Aspinall says, pointing out it is
businesses which will generate the growth Starmer wants.
U.K. businesses need to know they “will be supported around some of those risks
if they do decide to engage more closely with China,” she says.
LONDON — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney left Beijing and promptly declared
the U.S.-led “world order” broken. Don’t expect his British counterpart to do
the same.
Keir Starmer will land in the Chinese capital Wednesday for the first visit by a
U.K. prime minister since 2018. By meeting President Xi Jinping, he will end
what he has called an “ice age” under the previous Conservative administration,
and try to win deals that he can sell to voters as a boost to Britain’s
sputtering economy.
Starmer is one of a queue of leaders flocking to the world’s second-largest
economy, including France’s Emmanuel Macron in December and Germany’s Friedrich
Merz next month. Like Carney did in Davos last week, the British PM has warned
the world is the most unstable it has been for a generation.
Yet unlike Carney, Starmer is desperate not to paint this as a rupture from the
U.S. — and to avoid the criticism Trump unleashed on Carney in recent days over
his dealings with China. The U.K. PM is trying to ride three horses at once,
staying friendly — or at least engaging — with Washington D.C., Brussels and
Beijing.
It is his “three-body problem,” joked a senior Westminster figure who has long
worked on British-China relations.
POLITICO spoke to 22 current and former officials, MPs, diplomats, industry
figures and China experts, most of whom were granted anonymity to speak frankly.
They painted a picture of a leader walking the same tightrope he always has
surrounded by grim choices — from tricky post-Brexit negotiations with the EU,
to Donald Trump taking potshots at British policies and freezing talks on a
U.K.-U.S. tech deal.
Starmer wants his (long-planned) visit to China to secure growth, but be
cautious enough not to compromise national security or enrage Trump. He appears
neither to have ramped up engagement with Beijing in response to Trump, nor
reduced it amid criticism of China’s espionage and human rights record.
In short, he doesn’t want any drama.
“Starmer is more managerial. He wants to keep the U.K.’s relationships with big
powers steady,” said one person familiar with planning for the trip. “You can’t
really imagine him doing a Carney or a Macron and using the trip to set out a
big geopolitical vision.”
An official in 10 Downing Street added: “He’s clear that it is in the U.K.’s
interests to have a relationship with the world’s second biggest economy. While
the U.S. is our closest ally, he rejects the suggestion that means you can’t
have pragmatic dealings with China.”
He will be hoping Trump — whose own China visit is planned for April — sees it
that way too.
BRING OUT THE CAVALRY
Starmer has one word in his mind for this trip — growth, which was just 0.1
percent in the three months to September.
The prime minister will be flanked by executives from City giants HSBC, Standard
Chartered, Schroders and the London Stock Exchange Group; pharmaceutical company
AstraZeneca; car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover; energy provider Octopus; and
Brompton, the folding bicycle manufacturer.
The priority in Downing Street will be bringing back “a sellable headline,” said
the person familiar with trip planning quoted above. The economy is the
overwhelming focus. While officials discussed trying to secure a political win,
such as China lifting sanctions it imposed on British parliamentarians in 2021,
one U.K. official said they now believe this to be unlikely.
Between them, five people familiar with the trip’s planning predicted a large
number of deals, dialogues and memorandums of understanding — but largely in
areas with the fewest national security concerns.
These are likely to include joint work on medical, health and life sciences,
cooperation on climate science, and work to highlight Mandarin language schemes,
the people said.
Officials are also working on the mutual recognition of professional
qualifications and visa-free travel for short stays, while firms have been
pushing for more expansive banking and insurance licences for British companies
operating in China. The U.K. is meanwhile likely to try to persuade Beijing to
lower import tariffs on Scotch whisky, which doubled in February 2025.
A former U.K. official who was involved in Britain’s last prime ministerial
visit to China, by Theresa May in 2018, predicted all deals will already be
“either 100 or 99 percent agreed, in the system, and No. 10 will already have a
firm number in its head that it can announce.”
THREADING THE NEEDLE
Yet all five people agreed there is unlikely to be a deal on heavy energy
infrastructure, including wind turbine technology, that could leave Britain
vulnerable to China. The U.K. has still not decided whether to let Ming Yang, a
Chinese firm, invest £1.5 billion in a wind farm off the coast of Scotland.
And while Carney agreed to ease tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs),
three of the five people familiar with the trip’s planning said that any deep
co-operation on EV technology is likely to be off the table. One of them
predicted: “This won’t be another Canada moment. I don’t see us opening the
floodgates on EVs.”
Britain is trying to stick to “amber and green areas” for any deals, said the
first person familiar with the planning. The second of the five people said: “I
think they‘re going for the soft, slightly lovey stuff.”
Britain has good reason to be reluctant, as Chinese-affiliated groups have long
been accused of hacking and espionage, including against MPs and Britain’s
Electoral Commission. Westminster was gripped by headlines in December about a
collapsed case against two men who had been accused of spying for China. Chinese
firm Huawei was banned from helping build the U.K.’s 5G phone network in 2020
after pressure from Trump.
Even now, Britain’s security agencies are working on mitigations to
telecommunications cables near the Tower of London. They pass close to the
boundary of China’s proposed embassy, which won planning approval last week.
Andrew Small, director of the Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign
Relations, a think tank working on foreign and security policy, said: “The
current debate about how to ‘safely’ increase China’s role in U.K. green energy
supplies — especially through wind power — has serious echoes of 5G all over
again, and is a bigger concern on the U.S. side than the embassy decision.”
Starmer and his team also “don’t want to antagonize the Americans” ahead of
Trump’s own visit in April, said the third of the five people familiar with trip
planning. “They’re on eggshells … if they announce a new dialogue on United
Nations policy or whatever bullshit they can come up with, any of those could be
interpreted as a broadside to the Trump administration.”
All these factors mean Starmer’s path to a “win” is narrow. Tahlia Peterson, a
fellow working on China at Chatham House, the international affairs think tank,
said: “Starmer isn’t going to ‘reset’ the relationship in one visit or unlock
large-scale Chinese investment into Britain’s core infrastructure.”
Small said foreign firms are being squeezed out of the Chinese market and Xi is
“weaponizing” the dependency on Chinese supply chains. He added: “Beijing will
likely offer extremely minor concessions in areas such as financial services,
[amounting to] no more than a rounding error in economic scale.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves knows the pain of this. Britain’s top finance minister
was mocked when she returned with just £600 million of agreements from her visit
to China a year ago. One former Tory minister said the figure was a “deliberate
insult” by China.
Even once the big win is in the bag, there is the danger of it falling apart on
arrival. Carney announced Canada and China would expand visa-free travel, only
for Beijing’s ambassador to Ottawa to say that the move was not yet official.
Despite this, businesses have been keen on Starmer’s re-engagement.
Rain Newton-Smith, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry,
said firms are concerned about the dependence on Chinese rare earths but added:
“If you map supply chains from anywhere, the idea that you can decouple from
China is impossible. It’s about how that trade can be facilitated in the best
way.”
EMBASSY ROW
Even if Starmer gets his wins, this visit will bring controversies that (critics
say) show the asymmetry in Britain’s relationship with China. A tale of two
embassies serves as a good metaphor.
Britain finally approved plans last week for China’s new outpost in London,
despite a long row over national security. China held off formally confirming
Starmer’s visit until the London embassy decision was finalized, the first
person familiar with planning for the trip said. (Others point out Starmer would
not want to go until the issue was resolved.)
The result was a scramble in which executives were only formally invited a week
before take-off.
And Britain has not yet received approval to renovate its own embassy in
Beijing. Officials privately refer to the building as “falling down,” while one
person who has visited said construction materials were piled up against walls.
It is “crumbling,” added another U.K. official: “The walls have got cracks on
them, the wallpaper’s peeling off, it’s got damp patches.”
British officials refused to give any impression of a “quid pro quo” for the two
projects under the U.K.’s semi-judicial planning system. But that means much of
Whitehall still does not know if Britain’s embassy revamp in Beijing will be
approved, or held back until China’s project in London undergoes a further
review in the courts. U.K. officials are privately pressing their Chinese
counterparts to give the green light.
One of the people keenest on a breakthrough will be Britain’s new ambassador to
Beijing Peter Wilson, a career diplomat described by people who have met him as
“outstanding,” “super smart” and “very friendly.”
For Wilson, hosting Starmer will be one of his trickiest jobs yet.
The everyday precautions when doing business in China have made preparations for
this trip more intense. Government officials and corporate executives are
bringing secure devices and will have been briefed on the risk of eavesdropping
and honeytraps.
One member of Theresa May’s 2018 delegation to China recalled opening the door
of what they thought was their vehicle, only to see several people with headsets
on, listening carefully and typing. They compared it to a scene in a spy film.
Activists and MPs will put Starmer under pressure to raise human rights issues —
including what campaigners say is a genocide against the Uyghur people in
Xinjiang province — on a trip governed by strict protocol where one stray word
can derail a deal.
Pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai, who has British nationality, is facing
sentencing in Hong Kong imminently for national security offenses. During the
PM’s last meeting with Xi in 2024, Chinese officials bundled British journalists
out of the room when he raised the case. Campaigners had thought Lai’s
sentencing could take place this week.
All these factors mean tension in the British state — which has faced a tussle
between “securocrats” and departments pushing for growth — has been high ahead
of the trip. Government comments on China are workshopped carefully before
publication.
Earlier this month, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told POLITICO her work on
Beijing involves looking at “transnational repression” and “espionage threats.”
But when Chancellor Rachel Reeves met China’s Finance Minister He Lifeng in
Davos last week to tee up Starmer’s visit, the U.K. Treasury did not publicize
the meeting — beyond a little-noticed photo on its Flickr account.
SLOW BOAT TO CHINA
Whatever the controversies, Labour’s China stance has been steadily taking shape
since before Starmer took office in 2024.
Labour drew inspiration from its sister party in Australia and the U.S.
Democrats, both of which had regular meetings with Beijing. Party aides argued
that after a brief “golden era” under Conservative PM David Cameron, Britain
engaged less with China than with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The
result of Labour’s thinking was the policy of “three Cs” — “challenge, compete,
and cooperate.”
A procession of visits to Beijing followed, most notably Reeves last year,
culminating in Starmer’s trip. His National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell was
involved in planning across much of 2025, even travelling to meet China’s top
diplomat, Wang Yi, in November.
Starmer teed up this week’s visit with a December speech arguing the “binary”
view of China had persisted for too long. He promised to engage with Beijing
carefully while taking a “more transactional approach to pretty well
everything.”
The result was that this visit has long been locked in; just as Labour aides
argue the London embassy decision was set in train in 2018, when the Tory
government gave diplomatic consent for the site.
Labour ministers “just want to normalize” the fact of dealing with China, said
the senior Westminster figure quoted above. Newton-Smith added: “I think the
view is that the government’s engagement with eyes wide open is the right
strategy. And under the previous government, we did lose out.”
But for each person who praises the re-engagement, there are others who say it
has left Britain vulnerable while begging for scraps at China’s table. Hawks
argue the hard details behind the “three Cs” were long nebulous, while Labour’s
long-awaited “audit” of U.K.-China relations was delayed before being folded
briefly into a wider security document.
“Every single bad decision now can be traced back to the first six months,”
argued the third person familiar with planning quoted above. “They were
absolutely ill-prepared and made a series of decisions that have boxed them into
a corner.” They added: “The government lacks the killer instinct to deal with
China. It’s not in their DNA.”
Luke de Pulford, a human rights campaigner and director of the
Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, argued the Tories had engaged with China
— Foreign Secretary James Cleverly visited in 2023 — and Labour was simply going
much further.
“China is pursuing an enterprise to reshape the global order in its own image,
and to that end, to change our institutions and way of life to the extent that
they’re an obstacle to it,” he said. “That’s what they’re up to — and we keep
falling for it.”
END OF THE OLD ORDER?
His language may be less dramatic, but Starmer’s visit to China does have some
parallels with Canada. Carney’s trip was the first by a Canadian PM since 2017,
and he and Xi agreed a “new strategic partnership.”
Later at Davos, the Canadian PM talked of “the end of a pleasant fiction” and
warned multilateral institutions such as the United Nations are under threat.
One British industry figure who attended Davos said of Carney’s speech: “It was
great. Everyone was talking about it. Someone said to me that was the best and
most poignant speech they’d ever seen at the World Economic Forum. That may be a
little overblown, but I guess most of the speeches at the WEF are quite dull.”
The language used by Starmer, a former human rights lawyer devoted to
multilateralism, has not been totally dissimilar. Britain could no longer “look
only to international institutions to uphold our values and interests,” he said
in December. “We must do it ourselves through deals and alliances.”
But while some in the U.K. government privately agree with Carney’s point, the
real difference is the two men’s approach to Trump.
Starmer will temper his messaging carefully to avoid upsetting either his
Chinese hosts or the U.S., even as Trump throws semi-regular rocks at Britain.
To Peterson, this is unavoidable. “China, the U.S. and the EU are likely to
continue to dominate global economic growth for the foreseeable future,” she
said. “Starmer’s choice is not whether to engage, but how.”
Esther Webber contributed reporting.
It seems impossible to have a conversation today without artificial intelligence
(AI) playing some role, demonstrating the massive power of the technology. It
has the potential to impact every part of business, and European policymakers
are on board.
In February 2025, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said,
“We want Europe to be one of the leading AI continents … AI can help us boost
our competitiveness, protect our security, shore up public health, and make
access to knowledge and information more democratic.”
Research from Nokia suggests that businesses share this enthusiasm and ambition:
84 percent of more than 1,000 respondents said AI features in the growth
strategy of their organization, while 62 percent are directing at least 20
percent of ICT capex budgets toward the technology.
However, the equation is not yet balanced.
Three-quarters of survey respondents state that current telecom infrastructure
limits the ability to deliver on those ambitions. Meanwhile, 45 percent suggest
these limitations would delay, constrain or entirely limit investments.
There is clearly a disconnect between the ambition and the ability to deliver.
At present, Europe lags the United States and parts of Asia in areas such as
network deployment, related investment levels and scale.
> If AI does not reach its full potential, EU competitiveness will suffer,
> economic growth will have a ceiling, the creation of new jobs will have a
> limit and consumers will not see the benefits.
What we must remember primarily is that AI does not happen without advanced,
trusted and future-proofed networks. Infrastructure is not a ‘nice to have’ it
is a fundamental part. Simply put, today’s networks in Europe require more
investments to power the AI dream we all have.
If AI does not reach its full potential, EU competitiveness will suffer,
economic growth will have a ceiling, the creation of new jobs will have a limit
and consumers will not see the benefits.
When we asked businesses about the challenge of meeting AI demands during our
research, the lack of adequate connectivity infrastructure was the fourth common
answer out of 15 potential options.
Our telecom connectivity regulatory approach must be more closely aligned with
the goal of fostering AI. That means progressing toward a genuine telecom single
market, adopting a novel approach to competition policy to allow market
consolidation to lead to more investments, and ensuring connectivity is always
secure and trusted.
Supporting more investments in next-generation networks through consolidation
AI places heavy demands on networks. It requires low latency, high bandwidth and
reliability, and efficient traffic management. To deliver this, Europe needs to
accelerate investment in 5G standalone, fiber to enterprises, edge data centers
and IP-optical backbone networks optimized for AI.
> As industry voices such as Nokia have emphasized, the networks that power AI
> must themselves make greater use of automation and AI.
Consolidation (i.e. reducing the number of telecom operators within the national
telecom markets of EU member states) is part of the solution. Consolidation will
allow operators to achieve economies of scale and improve operating efficiency,
therefore encouraging investment and catalyzing innovation.
As industry voices such as Nokia have emphasized, the networks that power AI
must themselves make greater use of automation and AI. Policy support should
therefore extend to both network innovation and deployment.
Trust: A precondition for AI adoption
Intellectual property (IP) theft is a threat to Europe’s industrial future and
only trusted technology should be used in core functions, systems and sectors
(such as energy, transport and defense). In this context, the underlying
connectivity should always be secure and trusted. The 5G Security Toolbox,
restricting untrusted technology, should therefore be extended to all telecom
technologies (including fiber, optics and IP) and made compulsory in all EU
member states. European governments must make protecting their industries and
citizens a high priority.
Completing the digital single market
Although the single market is one of Europe’s defining projects, the reality in
telecoms — a key part of the digital single market — is still fragmented. As an
example, different spectrum policies create barriers across borders and can
limit network roll outs.
Levers on top of advanced connectivity
To enable the AI ecosystem in Europe, there are several different enabling
levers European policymakers should advance on top of fostering advanced and
trusted connectivity:
* The availability of compute infrastructure. The AI Continent Action Plan, as
well as the IPCEI Compute Infrastructure Continuum, and the European
High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking should facilitate building AI
data centers in Europe.
* Leadership in edge computing. There should also be clear support for securing
Europe’s access to and leadership in edge solutions and building out edge
capacity. Edge solutions increase processing speeds and are important for
enabling AI adoption, while also creating a catalyst for economic growth.
With the right data center capacity and edge compute capabilities available,
European businesses can meet the new requirements of AI use cases.
* Harmonization of rules. There are currently implications for AI in several
policy areas, including the AI Act, GDPR, Data Act, cybersecurity laws and
sector-specific regulations. This creates confusion, whereas AI requires
clarity. Simplification and harmonization of these regulations should be
pursued.
* AI Act implementation and simplification. There are concerns about the
implementation of the AI Act. The standards for high-risk AI may not
be available before the obligations of the AI act enter into force, hampering
business ambitions due to legal uncertainty. The application date of the AI
Act’s provisions on high-risk AI should be postponed by two years to align
with the development of standards. There needs to be greater clarity on
definitions and simplification measures should be pursued across the entire
ecosystem. Policies must be simple enough to follow, otherwise adoption may
falter. Policy needs to act as an enabler, not a barrier to innovation.
* Upskilling and new skills. AI will require new skills of employees and users,
as well as creating entirely new career paths. Europe needs to prepare for
this new world.
If Europe can deliver on these priorities, the benefits will be tangible:
improved services, stronger industries, increased competitiveness and higher
economic growth. AI will deliver to those who best prepare themselves.
We must act now with the urgency and consistency that the moment demands.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author biography: Marc Vancoppenolle is leading the geopolitical and government
relations EU and Europe function at Nokia. He and his team are working with
institutions and stakeholders in Europe to create a favorable political and
regulatory environment fostering broadband investments and cross sectoral
digitalization at large.
Vancoppenolle has over 30 years of experience in the telecommunication industry.
He joined Alcatel in 1991, and then Alcatel-Lucent, where he took various
international and worldwide technical, commercial, marketing, communication and
government affairs leadership roles.
Vancoppenolle is a Belgian and French national. He holds a Master of Science,
with a specialization in telecommunication, from the University of Leuven
complemented with marketing studies from the University of Antwerp. He is a
member of the DIGITALEUROPE Executive Board, Associate to Nokia’s CEO at the ERT
(European Round Table for Industry), and advisor to FITCE Belgium (Forum for ICT
& Media professionals). He has been vice-chair of the BUSINESSEUROPE Digital
Economy Taskforce as well as a member of the board of IICB (Innovation &
Incubation Center Brussels).
LONDON — British ministers have been laying the ground for Keir Starmer’s
handshake with Xi Jinping in Beijing this week ever since Labour came to power.
In a series of behind-closed-door speeches in China and London, obtained by
POLITICO, ministers have sought to persuade Chinese and British officials,
academics and businesses that rebuilding the trade and investment relationship
is essential — even as economic security threats loom.
After a “Golden Era” in relations trumpeted by Tory Prime Minister David
Cameron, Britain’s once-close ties to the Asian superpower began to unravel in
the late 2010s. By 2019, Boris Johnson had frozen trade and investment talks
after a Beijing-led crackdown on Hong Kong’s democracy movement. At Donald
Trump’s insistence, Britain stripped Chinese telecoms giant Huawei from its
telecoms infrastructure over security concerns.
Starmer — who is expected to meet Xi on a high-stakes trip to Beijing this week
— set out to revive an economic relationship that had hit the rocks. The extent
of the reset undertaken by the PM’s cabinet is revealed in the series of
speeches by ministers instrumental to his China policy over the past year,
including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, then-Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Energy
Secretary Ed Miliband, and former Indo-Pacific, investment, city and trade
ministers.
Months before security officials completed an audit of Britain’s exposure to
Chinese interference last June, ministers were pushing for closer collaboration
between the two nations on energy and financial systems, and the eight sectors
of Labour’s industrial strategy.
“Six of those eight sectors have national security implications,” said a senior
industry representative, granted anonymity to speak freely about their
interactions with government. “When you speak to [the trade department] they
frame China as an opportunity. When you speak to the Foreign, Commonwealth and
Development Office, it’s a national security risk.”
While Starmer’s reset with China isn’t misguided, “I think we’ve got to be much
more hard headed about where we permit Chinese investment into the economy in
the future,” said Labour MP Liam Byrne, chair of the House of Commons Business
and Trade Committee.
Lawmakers on his committee are “just not convinced that the investment strategy
that is unfolding between the U.K. and China is strong enough for the future and
increased coercion risks,” he said.
As Trump’s tariffs bite, Beijing’s trade surplus is booming and “we’ve got to be
realistic that China is likely to double down on its Made in China approach and
target its export surplus at the U.K.,” Byrne said. China is the U.K.’s
fifth-largest trade partner, and data to June of last year show U.K. exports to
China dropping 10.4 percent year-on-year while imports rose 4.3 percent.
“That’s got the real potential to flood our markets with goods that are full of
Chinese subsidies, but it’s also got the potential to imperil key sectors of our
economy, in particular the energy system,” Byrne warned.
A U.K. government spokesperson said: “Since the election, the Government has
been consistently transparent about our approach to China – which we are clear
will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.
“We will cooperate where we can and challenge where we must, never compromising
on our national security. We reject the old ‘hot and cold’ diplomacy that failed
to protect our interests or support our growth.”
While Zheng Zeguang’s speech was released online, the Foreign Office refused to
provide Catherine West’s own address when requested at the time. | Jordan
Pettitt/PA Images via Getty Images
CATHERINE WEST, INDO-PACIFIC MINISTER, SEPTEMBER 2024
Starmer’s ministers began resetting relations in earnest on the evening of Sept.
25, 2024 at the luxury Peninsula Hotel in London’s Belgravia, where rooms go for
£800 a night. Some 400 guests, including a combination of businesses, British
government and Chinese embassy officials, gathered to celebrate the 75th
anniversary of the People’s Republic of China — a milestone for Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) rule.
“I am honored to be invited to join your celebration this evening,” then
Indo-Pacific Minister Catherine West told the room, kicking off her keynote
following a speech by China’s ambassador to the U.K., Zheng Zeguang.
“Over the last 75 years, China’s growth has been exponential; in fields like
infrastructure, technology and innovation which have reverberated across the
globe,” West said, according to a Foreign Office briefing containing the speech
obtained through freedom of information law. “Both our countries have seen the
benefits of deepening our trade and economic ties.”
While London and Beijing won’t always see eye-to-eye, “the U.K. will cooperate
with China where we can. We recognise we will also compete in other areas — and
challenge where we need to,” West told the room, including 10 journalists from
Chinese media, including Xinhua, CGTN and China Daily.
While Zheng’s speech was released online, the Foreign Office refused to provide
West’s own address when requested at the time. Freedom of information officers
later provided a redacted briefing “to protect information that would be likely
to prejudice relations.”
DAVID LAMMY, FOREIGN SECRETARY, OCTOBER 2024
As foreign secretary, David Lammy made his first official overseas visit in the
job with a two-day trip to Beijing and Shanghai. He met Chinese Foreign Minister
Wang Yi in Beijing on Oct. 18, a few weeks before U.S. President Donald Trump’s
re-election. Britain and China’s top diplomats discussed climate change, trade
and global foreign policy challenges.
“I met with Director Wang Yi yesterday and raised market access issues with him
directly,” Lammy told a roundtable of British businesses at Shanghai’s Regent On
The Bund hotel the following morning, noting that he hoped greater dialogue
between the two nations would break down trade barriers.
“At the same time, I remain committed to protecting the U.K.’s national
security,” Lammy said. “In most sectors of the economy, China brings
opportunities through trade and investment, and this is where continued
collaboration is of great importance to me,” he told firms. Freedom of
information officers redacted portions of Lammy’s speech so it wouldn’t
“prejudice relations” with China.
Later that evening, the then-foreign secretary gave a speech at the Jean
Nouvel-designed Pudong Museum of Art to 200 business, education, arts and
culture representatives.
China is “the world’s biggest emitter” of CO2, Lammy told them in his prepared
remarks obtained by freedom of information law. “But also the world’s biggest
producer of renewable energy. This is a prime example of why I was keen to visit
China this week. And why this government is committed to a long-term, strategic
approach to relations.”
Shanghai continues “to play a key role in trade and investment links with the
rest of the world as well,” he said, pointing to the “single biggest” ever
British investment in China: INEOS Group’s $800 million plastics plant in
Zhejiang.
“We welcome Chinese investment for clear mutual benefit the other way too,”
Lammy said. “This is particularly the case in clean energy, where we are both
already offshore wind powerhouses and the costs of rolling out more clean energy
are falling rapidly.”
“We welcome Chinese investment for clear mutual benefit the other way too,”
David Lammy said. | Adam Vaughan/EPA
POPPY GUSTAFSSON, INVESTMENT MINISTER, NOVEMBER 2024
Just days after Starmer and President Xi met for the first time at the G20 that
November, Poppy Gustafsson, then the British investment minister, told a
U.K.-China trade event at a luxury hotel on Mayfair’s Park Lane that “we want to
open the door to more investment in our banking and insurance industries.”
The event, co-hosted by the Bank of China UK and attended by Chinese Ambassador
Zheng Zeguang and 400 guests, including the U.K. heads of several major China
business and financial institutions, is considered the “main forum for
U.K.-China business discussion,” according to a briefing package prepared for
Gustafsson.
“We want to see more green initiatives like Red Rock Renewables who are
unlocking hundreds of megawatts in new capacity at wind farms off the coast of
Scotland — boosting this Government’s mission to become a clean energy
superpower by 2030,” Gustafsson told attendees, pointing to the project owned
by China’s State Development and Investment Group.
The number one objective for her speech, officials instructed the minister, was
to “affirm the importance of engaging with China on trade and investment and
cooperating on shared multilateral interests.”
And she was told to “welcome Chinese investment which supports U.K. growth and
the domestic industry through increased exports and wider investment across the
economy and in the Industrial Strategy priority sectors.” The Chinese
government published a readout of Gustafsson and Zheng’s remarks.
RACHEL REEVES, CHANCELLOR, JANUARY 2025
By Jan. 11 last year, Chancellor Rachel Reeves was in Beijing with British
financial and professional services giants like Abrdn, Standard Chartered, KPMG,
the London Stock Exchange, Barclays and Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey in
tow. She was there to meet with China’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng to reopen one of
the key financial and investment talks with Beijing Boris Johnson froze in 2019.
Before Reeves and He sat down for the China-U.K. Economic and Financial
Dialogue, Britain’s chancellor delivered an address alongside the vice-premier
to kick off a parallel summit for British and Chinese financial services firms,
according to an agenda for the summit shared with POLITICO. Reeves was also due
to attend a dinner the evening of the EFD and then joined a business delegation
travelling to Shanghai where she held a series of roundtables.
Releasing any of her remarks from these events through freedom of information
law “would be likely to prejudice” relations with China, the Treasury said. “It
is crucial that HM Treasury does not compromise the U.K.’s interests in China.”
Reeves’ visit to China paved the way for the revival of a long-dormant series of
high-level talks to line up trade and investment wins, including the China-U.K.
Energy Dialogue in March and U.K.-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission
(JETCO) last September.
EMMA REYNOLDS, CITY MINISTER, MARCH 2025
“Growth is the U.K. government’s number one mission. It is the foundation of
everything else we hope to achieve in the years ahead. We recognise that China
will play a very important part in this,” Starmer’s then-City Minister Emma
Reynolds told the closed-door U.K.-China Business Forum in central London early
last March.
Reeves’ restart of trade and investment talks “agreed a series of commitments
that will deliver £600 million for British businesses,” Reynolds told the
gathering, which included Chinese electric vehicle firm BYD, HSBC, Standard
Chartered, KPMG and others. This would be achieved by “enhancing links between
our financial markets,” she said.
“As the world’s most connected international financial center and home to
world-leading financial services firms, the City of London is the gateway of
choice for Chinese financial institutions looking to expand their global reach,”
Reynolds said.
Ed Miliband traveled to Beijing in mid-March for the first China-U.K. Energy
Dialogue since 2019. | Tolga Akmen/EPA
ED MILIBAND, ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE SECRETARY, MARCH 2025
With Starmer’s Chinese reset in full swing, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband
traveled to Beijing in mid-March for the first China-U.K. Energy Dialogue since
2019.
Britain’s energy chief wouldn’t gloss over reports of human rights violations in
China’s solar supply chain — on which the U.K. is deeply reliant for delivering
its lofty renewables goals — when he met with China’s Vice Premier Ding
Xuexiang, a British government official said at the time. “We maybe agree to
disagree on some things,” they said.
But the U.K. faces “a clean energy imperative,” Miliband told students and
professors during a lecture at Beijing’s elite Tsinghua University, which counts
Xi Jinping and former Chinese President Hu Jintao as alumni. “The demands of
energy security, affordability and sustainability now all point in the same
direction: investing in clean energy at speed and at scale,” Miliband said,
stressing the need for deeper U.K.-China collaboration as the U.K. government
reaches towards “delivering a clean power system by 2030.”
“In the eight months since our government came to office we have been speeding
ahead on offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, nuclear, hydrogen and [Carbon
Capture, Usage, and Storage],” Britain’s energy chief said. “Renewables are now
the cheapest form of power to build and operate — and of course, much of this
reflects technological developments driven by what is happening here in China.”
“The U.K. and China share a recognition of the urgency of acting on the climate
crisis in our own countries and accelerating this transition around the world —
and we must work together to do so,” Miliband said, in his remarks obtained
through freedom of information law.
DOUGLAS ALEXANDER, ECONOMIC SECURITY MINISTER, APRIL 2025
During a trip to China in April last year, then-Trade Minister Douglas Alexander
met his counterpart to prepare to relaunch key trade and investment talks. The
trip wasn’t publicized by the U.K. side.
According to a Chinese government readout, the China-UK Joint Economic and Trade
Commission would promote “cooperation in trade and investment, and industrial
and supply chains” between Britain’s trade secretary and his Chinese equivalent.
After meeting Vice Minister and Deputy China International Trade Representative
Ling Ji, Minister Alexander gave a speech at China’s largest consumer goods
expo near the country’s southernmost point on the island province of Hainan.
Alexander extended his “sincere thanks” to China’s Ministry of Commerce and the
Hainan Provincial Government “for inviting the U.K. to be the country of honour
at this year’s expo.”
“We must speak often and candidly about areas of cooperation and, yes, of
contention too, where there are issues on which we disagree,” the trade policy
and economic security minister said, according to a redacted copy of his speech
obtained under freedom of information law.
“We are seeing joint ventures and collaboration between Chinese and U.K. firms
on a whole host of different areas … in renewable energy, in consumer goods, and
in banking and finance,” Alexander later told some of the 27 globally renowned
British retailers, including Wedgwood, in another speech during the U.K.
pavilion opening ceremony.
“We are optimistic about the potential for deeper trade and investment
cooperation — about the benefits this will bring to the businesses showcasing
here, and those operating throughout China’s expansive market.”