PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron’s celebrations over the imminent passage of the 2026 budget will be short-lived. Once it’s approved, he’s going to be a lame duck until the presidential election of spring next year. Current and former ministers, lawmakers and political aides — including three Macron allies — told POLITICO that now that the budget fight is over and the concerns of angry citizens and jittery markets are assuaged, the whole cycle of French politics will shift to campaign mode at the expense of the dirty work of lawmaking.  First will come next month’s municipal elections, where voters in all of France’s 35,000-plus communes will elect mayors and city councils. Then all attention will flip to the race for the all-powerful presidency, Macron cannot run again due to term limits, and polls show he could be replaced by a candidate from the far-right National Rally. “It’s the end of [Macron’s] term,” a former adviser close to Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said of the budget’s passage.   Gabriel Attal, Macron’s former prime minister who now leads the French president’s party, confirmed in an interview with French media last month that he told his troops the budget marked “the end” of Macron’s second term.  “I stand by what I said,” Attal told FranceInfo.  As president, Macron continues to exert a strong influence over foreign affairs and defense, two realms that will keep him on the world stage given the geopolitical upheaval brought on by U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Domestically, however, he’s been hampered by the snap election in 2024 that delivered a hung parliament.  Lecornu was only able to avoid being toppled over the passage of the budget, as his two immediate predecessors were, thanks to his political savvy, some compromises and a few bold decisions. These included pausing Macron’s flagship pension reform that raised the retirement age and going back on his promise not to use a constitutional backdoor to ram it through without a vote. “Lecornu was smart enough to make the budget phase pass and end on a high note. That’s commendable, given that [former Prime Ministers Michel] Barnier and [François] Bayrou didn’t manage to do so, and he did it with considerable skill,” said a ministerial adviser who, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.  But Lecornu’s decision to prioritize uncontroversial measures in the coming weeks speak to the difficulties that lie ahead.   These priorities include defining the division of power between the central government and local authorities, and streamlining and centralizing welfare payments that are currently doled out in an ad hoc fashion. Lecornu is also planning to get to work early on France’s 2027 fiscal plans to try to prevent the third budget crisis in a row.  French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu leaves the Elysee Palace in Paris after a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 28. His decision to prioritize uncontroversial measures in the coming weeks speak to the difficulties ahead. | Mohammed Badra/EPA “There will be a presidential election in 2027. Before then, we need to agree on a bottom line which allows the country to move forward,” government spokesperson Maud Bregeon said Thursday on Sud Radio.  Lecornu has repeatedly stressed that his government should be disconnected from the race for president, blaming “partisan appetites” for both the budget crisis and the collapse of his 14-hour government, which was eventually replaced with a suite of less ambitious ministers.   But it’s ironic that some French government officials and MPs are now saying the self-described warrior-monk prime minister may have vaulted himself into the realm of presidential contender with his budget win. Mathieu Gallard, a pollster at Ipsos, said Lecornu had clearly become a more viable presidential candidate but noted that the jump from prime minister to president “is always a hard task.”  One parliamentary leader was much less sanguine. They said the same “partisan appetites” Lecornu has long warned about will likely cost him his job before voters head to the polls to choose Macron’s successor.   “[Lecornu] has few friends … And now that the budget has passed, every political group can have fun throwing him out of office to plant their flag before the next presidential election,” the leader said.  Anthony Lattier, Sarah Paillou and Elisa Bertholomey contributed to this report. 

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Die Bundesregierung legt ihren Jahreswirtschaftsbericht vor und der Ton ist ungewöhnlich ernüchternd. Erwartet wird nur ein Prozent Wachstum, getragen vor allem von staatlichen Sonderausgaben für Infrastruktur. Von Aufschwung oder Befreiungsschlag keine Spur. Rixa Fürsen spricht mit Rasmus Buchsteiner über einen Bericht, der vor allem Probleme beschreibt. Zugleich bleibt offen, welche konkreten Reformen daraus folgen sollen. Im Fokus stehen Infrastruktur, Arbeitskosten, Fachkräftemangel und Sozialreformen. Doch klar wird auch: Ohne weitere Entscheidungen im Koalitionsausschuss bleibt der wirtschaftspolitische Neustart Stückwerk. Für Kanzler Friedrich Merz wächst damit der Druck, das Versprechen vom Reformjahr 2026 einzulösen. Newsletter-Hinweis: POLITICO Pro – Energie & Klima POLITICO Pro – Industrie & Handel Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

PARIS — The French government survived two no-confidence votes over its fiscal plans Friday, moving one step closer to finally adopting a proper state budget for the year. The motion of no confidence put forward by the far-left France Unbowed was backed by 269 MPs — 19 votes short of passing— while the far-right National Rally’s version netted support from a mere 142 lawmakers. The two parties attempted to bring down Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government following his decision to use a constitutional backdoor to pass France’s 2026 budget after lawmakers failed to approve one before the end of 2025. That maneuver, Article 49.3 of the constitution, allows the government to ram through legislation without a vote but in turn gives opposition lawmakers the opportunity to respond by putting forward a no-confidence vote. Lecornu triggered that measure on Tuesday to pass the part of the budget that concerns raising revenue. He is expected to use it again Friday to pass the final part of the budget concerning government expenditures. Lecornu had been expected to survive, as the political extremes do not have enough lawmakers among themselves to bring down the government. The more centrist Socialists, who have played a kingmaker role during the prime minister’s tenure, did not try to topple the government after Lecornu offered them several last-minute budgetary concessions. France is under pressure from financial markets and international institutions to cut a budget deficit that came in at 5.4 percent of GDP last year and debt that is projected to go up to 118.2 percent of GDP in 2026, according to the government’s forecast. The country’s hung parliament was, for a second year in a row, unable to craft a state budget on its own despite Lecornu’s pledge to let lawmakers search for a consensus. They did, however, agree to a deal on funding the country’s social security system. Without proper plans in place, lawmakers were forced to roll over the 2025 budget into the new year until proper fiscal plans could be finalized. Lecornu said last week he would use Article 49.3 to enact a budget despite having ruled that option out in October. The 2026 budget being enacted is projected to carry a deficit of 5 percent of GDP and remains under excessive deficit procedure from the European Commission. Paris has pledged to bring the figure below 3 percent of GDP, as required by EU rules, by 2029.

PARIS — French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu can breathe a sigh of relief for now as his government will likely survive future no-confidence votes over his budget plans. Socialist leader Olivier Faure said Tuesday his party will not join efforts by the far-left France Unbowed or far-right National Rally to topple the government after the PM offered several concessions last week, including €1 lunches for university students and more spending on social housing. “Our conditions for not censuring [the government] have been fulfilled,” Faure said on French radio. France’s political extremes do not have enough lawmakers to bring down the government without the assistance of more centrist members of the opposition. Lecornu announced Monday he would expose his government to the possible no-confidence votes by invoking a constitutional backdoor to finalize France’s fiscal plans after months of deadlock. France entered the new year without a proper budget after lawmakers failed to adopt one in December but avoided a U.S.-style shutdown by rolling over last year’s budget into 2026. The maneuver Lecornu is using to enact a proper budget — Article 49.3 of the French constitution — allows the government to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote but in turn gives opposition lawmakers the opportunity to respond with no-confidence votes. Lecornu will Tuesday trigger Article 49.3 to pass the part of the budget that deals with tax revenue. If Lecornu’s government survives the motions of no confidence put forward in response, which are likely to be voted on Friday, it will immediately again trigger the article for the second part of the budget, which covers spending, according to Lecornu’s office. The goal is to have the process wrapped by Jan. 30, said a parliamentary adviser. While the text of the new budget is not public yet, Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin on Monday promised that it would bring the country’s chronically high budget deficit down to at least 5 percent of gross domestic product this year. That target will be met thanks to €2 billion of unspecified savings by state agencies and other state bodies, and by extending a 2025 tax on 300 big companies which was meant to be temporary, de Montchalin said. Anthony Lattier contributed to this report.

PARIS — French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will risk his government’s survival by ramming a state budget through parliament without a vote to break a monthslong legislative deadlock. The PM explained Monday that he would on Tuesday invoke Article 49.3, a constitutional backdoor that allows the government to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote, to enact the part of the budget that deals with tax revenue. Opposition parties can respond to the move by calling for a no-confidence vote that, if successful, topples the government and blocks the bill in question. Far-left France Unbowed heavyweight Mathilde Panot said before Lecornu’s announcement that her party would respond by filing a motion of no confidence. Lecornu and his government entered the new year with mostly risky options to finalize France’s fiscal plans after lawmakers in the country’s hung parliament failed to pass a proper budget before the end of 2025. Lecornu had, early in his tenure, ruled out using Article 49.3 to pass a budget, betting the concession would help ensure the survival of his minority government. But on Monday he acknowledged that despite personal “regret” and “bitterness,” he would need to go back on his word, saying that while the government wanted the parliamentary procedure to continue “until the end,” the legislature’s fractured nature had made it impossible. The success of the PM’s maneuver will likely depend on getting the Socialist Party, who have played a kingmaker role throughout Lecornu’s tenure, to abstain from voting for any censure. Boris Vallaud, a high-ranking Socialist, said Monday the party could play ball thanks to concessions announced Friday, which include €1 lunches for university students and more spending on social housing. The government is currently being financed by an emergency measure passed late last year that effectively just rolls over the 2025 budget into the new year. That legislative bandage does nothing to cut France’s chronically high budget deficit, which Lecornu reiterated Friday must be brought down to 5 percent of gross domestic product this year.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. 2026 is here, and Europe is under siege. External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the U.S. — now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally — is undermining the EU’s multilateral rule book, which appears increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world. And none of this shows signs of slowing down. In fact, in the year ahead, the steady erosion of the norms Europe has come to rely on will only be compounded by the bloc’s weak leadership — especially in the so-called “E3” nations of Germany, France and the U.K. Looking forward, the greatest existential risks for Europe will flow from the transatlantic relationship. For the bloc’s leaders, keeping the U.S. invested in the war in Ukraine was the key goal for 2025. And the best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the ad-hoc diplomacy and transactionalism that has defined the last 12 months. However, if new threats emerge in this relationship — especially regarding Greenland — this balancing act may be impossible. The year also starts with no sign of any concessions from Russia when it comes to its ceasefire demands, or any willingness to accept the terms of the 20-point U.S.-EU-Ukraine plan. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin is calculating that Ukraine’s military situation will further deteriorate, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to capitulate to territorial demands. I believe Putin is wrong — that backed by Europe, Zelenskyy will continue to resist U.S. pressure on territorial concessions, and instead, increasingly target Russian energy production and exports in addition to resisting along the frontline. Of course, this means Russian aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase in kind. Nonetheless, Europe’s growing military spending, purchase of U.S. weapons, financing for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia — which also target sources of energy revenue — could help maintain last year’s status quo. But this is perhaps the best case scenario. Activists protest outside Downing street against the recent policies of Donald Trump. | Guy Smallman/Getty Images Meanwhile, European leaders will be forced to publicly ignore Washington’s support for far-right parties, which was clearly spelled out in the new U.S. national security strategy, while privately doing all they can to counter any antiestablishment backlash at the polls. Specifically, the upcoming election in Hungary will be a bellwether for whether the MAGA movement can tip the balance for its ideological affiliates in Europe, as populist, euroskeptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is currently poised to lose for the first time in 15 years. Orbán, for his part, has been frantically campaigning to boost voter support, signaling that he and his inner circle actually view defeat as a possibility. His charismatic rival Péter Magyar, who shares his conservative-nationalist political origins but lacks any taint of corruption poses a real challenge, as does the country’s stagnating economy and rising prices. While traditional electoral strategies — financial giveaways, smear campaigns and war fearmongering — have so far proven ineffective for Orbán, a military spillover from Ukraine that directly affects Hungary could reignite voter fears and shift the dynamic. To top it all off, these challenges will be compounded by the E3’s weakness. The hollowing out of Europe’s political center has already been a decade in the making. But France, Germany and the U.K. each entered 2026 with weak, unpopular governments besieged by the populist right and left, as well as a U.S. administration rooting for their collapse. While none face scheduled general elections, all three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst. And at least one leader — namely, Britain’s Keir Starmer — could fall because of an internal party revolt. The year’s pivotal event in the U.K. will be the midterm elections in May. As it stands, the Labour Party faces the humiliation of coming third in the Welsh parliament, failing to oust the Scottish National Party in the Scottish parliament and losing seats to both the Greens and ReformUK in English local elections. Labour MPs already expect a formal challenge to Starmer as party leader, and his chances of surviving seem slight. France, meanwhile, entered 2026 without a budget for the second consecutive year. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that his Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government will probably achieve a budget deal targeting a modest deficit reduction by late February or March. And with the presidential election only 16 months away and local elections due to be held in March, the opposition’s appetite for a snap parliamentary election has abated. However, this is the best he can hope for, as a splintered National Assembly will sustain a mood of slow-motion crisis until the 2027 race. Finally, while Germany’s economy looks like it will slightly recover this year, it still won’t overcome its structural malaise. Largely consumed by ideological divisions, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will struggle to implement far-reaching reforms. And with the five upcoming state elections expected to see increased vote shares for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, pressure on the government in Berlin will only mount A historic truth — one often forgotten in the quiet times — will reassert itself in 2026: that liberty, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always brittle. The holiday from history, provided by Pax Americana and exceptional post-World War II cooperation and integration, has officially come to an end. Moving forward, Europe’s relevance in the new global order will be defined by its response to Russia’s increased hybrid aggression, its influence on diplomacy regarding the Ukraine war and its ability to improve competitiveness, all while managing an increasingly ascendant far right and addressing the existential threats to its economy and security posed by Russia, China and the U.S. This is what will decide whether Europe can survive.

BRUSSELS — If you ordered Christmas presents from a Chinese web shop, they are likely to be toxic, unsafe or undervalued. Or all of the above. The EU is trying to do something about the flood but is tripping over itself 27 times to get there. “It’s absolutely crazy…” sighs one EU official. The official, granted anonymity to discuss preparations to tackle the problem, said that at some airport freight hubs, an estimated 80 percent of such inbound packages don’t comply with EU safety rules. The numbers are dizzying. In 2024, 4.6 billion small packages with contents worth less than €150 entered the EU. That all-time record was broken in September of this year. Because these individual air-mail packages replace whole containers shipping the same product, the workload for customs officials has increased exponentially over recent years. Non-compliant, cheaply-made products — such as dangerous toys or kitchen items — bring health risks. And a growing pile of garbage. It’s a problem for everyone along the chain. Customs officers can’t keep up; buyers end up with useless products; children are put at risk; and EU makers of similar items are undercut by unfair and untaxed competition. With the situation on the ground becoming unmanageable, the EU agreed this month to charge a €3 fixed fee on all such packages. This will effectively remove a tax-free exemption on packages worth €150 — but only from July of next year. It’s a crude, and temporary, fix because existing customs IT systems can’t yet tax items according to their actual value. ALL I WANT … Which is why all European lawmaker Anna Cavazzini wants for next year’s holiday season is “better rules.” Cavazzini is a key player in a push to harmonize the EU’s 27 national customs regimes. A proposed reform, now being discussed by the EU institutions, would create a central data hub and an EU Customs Agency, or EUCA, with oversight powers. As is so often the case in the EU, though, the customs reform is only progressing slowly. The EUCA will be operational only from late 2026. And the data hub probably won’t be up and running until the next decade. “We need a fundamental discussion on the Europeanization of customs,” Cavazzini told POLITICO. As chair of the European Parliament’s Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee (IMCO), the lawmaker from the German Greens has been pushing the Council, the EU’s intergovernmental branch, to allow the customs reform to make the bloc’s single market more of a unified reality. European lawmaker Anna Cavazzini. | Martin Bertrand and Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images EU capitals worry — as always — about handing over too much power to the eurocrats in Brussels. But the main outstanding issue where negotiators disagree is more prosaic: it’s about whether the law should include an explicit list of offences, such making false declarations to customs officers. While the last round of negotiations in early December brought some progress on other areas, the unsolved penalties question has kicked the reform into 2026. With the millions of boxes, packages and parcels inbound, regardless, individual countries are also considering handling fees, beside the €3 tax that all have agreed on. France has already proposed a solo fee with revenues flowing into its national budget, and Belgium and the Netherlands will probably follow suit. RACE TO THE BOTTOM Customs reform is what’s needed, not another round of fragmented fees and a race to the bottom, said Dirk Gotink, the European Parliament’s lead negotiator on the customs reform. “Right now, the ideas launched by France and others are not meant to stem the flow of packages. They are just meant to earn money,” the Dutch center-right lawmaker told a recent briefing. To inspect the myriad ways in which they are a risk, Gotink’s team bought a few items from dubious-looking web shops. “With this one, the eyes are coming off right away,” he warned before handing a plush toy to a reporter. The reporter almost succeeded in separating the head from the creature’s body without too much effort. And thin, plastic eyes trailed the toy as it was passed around the room. “On the box it says it’s meant for people over 15 years old…” one reporter commented. But the cute creature is clearly targeted at far younger audiences. Adding to the craze, K-pop stars excitedly unbox new characters in online promotional videos. The troubles aren’t limited to toys. A jar of cosmetics showed by Gotink had inscriptions on its label that didn’t resemble any known alphabet. Individual products aside, the deluge of cheap merchandise also creates unfair competition, said Cavazzini: “A lot of European companies of course also fulfill the environmental obligations and the imports don’t,” she said. “This is also creating a huge unlevel playing field.” After the holidays, Gotink and Cavazzini will pick up negotiations on the customs reform with Cyprus, which from Jan. 1 takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU from Denmark. “This file will be a priority during our presidency,” a Cypriot official told POLITICO, adding that Denmark had completed most of the technical work. “We aim to conclude this important file, hoping to reach a deal with the Parliament during the first months of the Cyprus Presidency.” Despite the delays, an EU diplomat working on customs policy told POLITICO that the current speed of the policy process is unprecedented: “This huge ecommerce pressure has really made all the difference. A year ago, this would have been unimaginable.”

PARIS — French lawmakers formally approved the country’s 2026 social security budget on Tuesday, handing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu an important political victory and offering some optimism to skittish markets worried France isn’t serious about getting its public finances in check. The bill, which covers state health care and pensions spending, was expected to pass after having already been approved by the National Assembly, France’s more powerful lower legislative chamber, last week, but its rejection by the Senate over the weekend forced another vote. The conservative Senate rejected the measure in part over concerns the legislation does not sufficiently bring down the budget deficit. As part of a compromise to ensure his government’s survival, Lecornu approved a measure in the law that suspends until 2027 the controversial law passed in 2023 that raised the retirement age for most workers from 62 to 64. The government now faces the more arduous task of passing a state budget for next year, which is a separate piece of legislation. The National Assembly’s first attempt to pass a state budget ended with all but one MP voting against the bill, which MPs had saddled with untenable and sometimes conflicting amendments. Lawmakers from both branches of parliament will on Friday attempt to forge a compromise text during a U.S.-style conference committee in what one National Assembly official described as a “make or break” moment. France is highly unlikely to face a government shutdown similar to what happened in the United States earlier this year as lawmakers can approve a measure carrying the 2025 budget over into next year. But such a stopgap would exacerbate the worrying financial outlook in the European Union’s second-largest economy. France’s current fiscal plans for 2026 are now projected to carry a budget deficit to 5.3 percent of gross domestic product, significantly higher than the 4.7 percent of GDP deficit initially proposed by the government and welcomed by the European Commission. Lecornu said in October that whatever fiscal plans lawmakers agree on should not carry a budget deficit for 2026 that exceeds 5 percent of GDP.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. It all looked rather bleak for France a little over a week ago, as President Emmanuel Macron’s former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe seemingly wrecked his successor’s deficit-cutting strategy. While Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was working toward a deal with the Socialists in his country’s fractured National Assembly, the 34 centrist lawmakers of Philippe’s Horizons party unceremoniously announced they would abstain or oppose the government in a key vote on the social security budget set to be held Tuesday evening. The eventual narrow win in favor of a relatively generous social security budget, covering pensions, health and welfare, is thus a godsend for Macron’s embattled prime minister — turns out, he may just survive. However, it doesn’t guarantee an agreement on the main state budget before the Dec. 23 deadline, and Lecornu will likely struggle to deliver another surprise victory over the next two weeks. Ahead of Tuesday evening’s final tally, the prime minister made a string of last-minute concessions to the Socialists and the Greens on health spending to get their votes or abstentions. And he eventually succeeded in securing a small majority by 247 to 234 votes. However, to keep next year’s welfare deficit below €20 billion — already up from the €17.5 billion originally proposed — Lecornu transferred an extra subsidy of at least €4.5 billion from the main budget, which covers everything from education to defense. And it remains unclear where exactly this money will be found, while still meeting the government’s promise to reduce France’s overall deficit from 5.4 percent of gross domestic product to “below 5 percent” next year. Still, Lecornu hopes his unlikely success with the social security budget in the National Assembly will create momentum for a deal on the main budget. Moreover, Tuesday’s victory — though limited and hard fought — is without precedent. No previous budget in France’s Fifth Republic has been negotiated and agreed on by an ad hoc coalition of government and opposition. So, as attention now turns to the main state budget, Lecornu’s balancing act will prove even trickier. | Julien De Rosa/AFP via Getty Images The problem is, the prime minister’s concessions to the moderate left — abolishing a planned freeze on pensions and welfare payments, boosting a 2 percent planned increase in health spending to 3 percent, and suspending pension reform — infuriated two of the four parties in his fragile centrist coalition. So, as attention now turns to the main state budget, Lecornu’s balancing act will prove even trickier. Upon its first reading in the National Assembly, this budget was rejected by 404 votes to one. And the French leader will be hard-pressed to find concessions for the moderate left, appease his coalition and keep his promise to reduce the deficit. As France’s third prime minister in the last 12 months, Lecornu has no majority in a National Assembly that’s currently split into 11 groups. In order to avoid a censure motion, he has also promised not to use his government’s special constitutional powers (Article 49.3) to impose legislation without a parliamentary vote, and has so far rejected pressure from within his own camp to reverse that decision. Simply put, using this power and facing censure is not a risk Lecornu is likely to take — especially since he wouldn’t resign if he lost the upcoming budget vote. He would instead argue the rejected budget deal was an attempted compromise and not his responsibility alone. Paradoxically, part of Lecornu’s problem is that he’s now expected to survive. Previously, the center, center right and Socialists agreed to abstain from voting, as they feared a government collapse and snap parliamentary elections in January, right before the important municipal elections in March. But now that this fear has subsided, Philippe and the center right can take the risk of wrecking the budget deal. To that end, Lecornu and his government are now preparing emergency legislation to roll over this year’s budget to keep the French state operational, and lawmakers have been warned they may be called in for a special session to pass such a stopgap budget in late December. According to the ministry of finance, though, if a rolled-over 2025 budget were to last throughout next year, it would push France’s deficit beyond 6 percent of GDP. In fact, even a delay of two or three months could, in theory, significantly weaken efforts to reduce the budget deficit, as under French law, authorities can’t retroactively apply any tax increases that lawmakers eventually approve. Still, it would at least allow Lecornu to hang on and fight another day. But the outlook for France is looking no brighter than before.

John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book “In Search of Berlin” is published by Atlantic. He is a regular POLITICO columnist. When it comes to the war in Ukraine, predictions don’t last long. One minute U.S. President Donald Trump’s acting like his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin’s emissary, the next he’s giving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a reasonable hearing, and then it’s back again to the Kremlin camp. With the U.S. administration increasingly taking on the role of unreliable broker over a staunch ally, Europe is in a parlous position. And what has struck me most during a series of security briefings and conferences I’ve attended in Berlin and elsewhere this autumn, is the extent of the alarm. Yet, much of the time, this remains hidden behind closed doors. One of the few crumbs of comfort is that the E3 nations of Germany, France and Britain are seeking to confront this cold reality in unison. After the trauma of Brexit, and all the bickering between former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron in recent years, the mood has changed — because it had to. If Europe is to survive a future attack by Russia — and that is the kind of language being used — its big players must behave in a way they haven’t done before. They must be joined at the hip. As more than a dozen officials have made clear in a series of discussions, the cost of inaction would be far greater than the cost of supporting Ukraine has been so far. Not only would Putin be emboldened to go even further, Europe would also be engulfed by a wave of Ukrainian refugees far greater than anything experienced before. And this realignment was visible amid the pomp and circumstance of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s state visit to the U.K. last week, as both he and King Charles affirmed what they described as a deep bond between the two countries — one that’s been reinforced by the shared threat of Russian expansionism. Meanwhile, the real business taking place at the government level is intense. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz have developed a genuine affinity, stemming from a shared view of current foreign-policy perils and their domestic-policy troubles. A British prime minister of the center-left and German chancellor of the center-right are finding common cause in their double adversity. The loss of the U.S. as a friend in need is what’s forcing this realignment for both countries. Of course, neither publicly dares admit the situation is as bad as it is, but the optics say everything that needs to be said. Just compare Trump’s state visit in September — with its high security, taut smiles and desperate obsequies by his hosts – and the relaxed conviviality of Steinmeier’s. And dominating everything is security — though it’s less a “coalition of the willing” and more a “coalition of the surrounded.” Or, as one German security official, granted anonymity to speak freely, explained: “If the Americans are now acting as mediators between Russia and Europe, they no longer see themselves as partners within NATO.” In practical terms, the U.S. is still the driving force behind the alliance, notionally at least. As another German military figure, also granted anonymity to express their views, put it: “The harsh truth is that Europe’s readiness level to combat any Russian aggression doesn’t yet exist. Until that time, we are reliant on the U.S. to act as a backstop.” But that penny should have dropped last February, when U.S. Vice President JD Vance dropped his various bombshells at the Munich Security Conference, attacking European democracies, praising the far-right Alternative for Germany party and serving notice that the U.S. no longer felt beholden to past allegiances. The real surprise is that anyone’s been surprised by the Trump administration’s actions since then. Even now, some are continuing to cling to the hope that this isn’t the united view in Washington, and that others within the administration still wield a certain influence. This isn’t how security planners in Germany or the U.K. see things, but it seems many politicians — and much of the public — are yet to be convinced of just how serious the situation has become. One minute U.S. President Donald Trump’s acting like his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin’s emissary, the next he’s giving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a reasonable hearing. | Pool Photo by Will Oliver via EPA Their alarm will have been reinforced by the second Trump administration’s first National Security Strategy. Published only a few days ago, it condemns many of the liberal values underpinning European democracy, while praising the nativist, nationalist rhetoric of the far-right — and implicitly of Putin.  Previously, the dominant narrative around Europe was about German reluctance, whether brought about by postwar guilt and pacificism or complacency. But while that has been replaced by a new determination, exactly how deeply is it entrenched? The commitment across NATO to increase defense spending to 5 percent of national GDP — 1.5 percent of which can be spent on “critical infrastructure” — certainly allows for much budgetary dexterity. But Berlin’s borrowing power gives it a freedom its neighbors can only envy. Britain’s financial travails are considerably more acute, and for all his tough talk, several defense contractors suspect Starmer is going slow on defense orders. As it stands, Germany is expected to spend €153 billion a year on defense by 2029. France, by comparison, plans to reach about €80 billion by 2030, and the U.K. currently spends £60 billion — a figure set to rise to £87 billion by 2030 — but looking at current predictions, will only hit its 3.5 percent target in 2035. For the governments in London and Paris, budgets are so tight and public service spending requirements so great — not to mention debt interest payments — the push-and-pull with security needs will only become more intense. And while opinion polls vary from country to country and depending on how questions are phrased, the growing concern among many defense officials is that if Ukraine is pressured enough to accept some form of Trump-Putin dirty deal, public support for military spending will decrease. “Job done” will be the sentiment — except, of course, it won’t be. For Putin, it can’t be. The Russian leader has tied his political survival, his power infrastructure and his country’s economy to the notion of an encircling Western “threat.” Hence his recent remarks about Russia being “ready” for war if Europe wants to start one — he simply can’t afford to stop invoking threats. But the original 28-point plan for Ukraine — which the U.S. initially denied came directly from the Kremlin — represents Europe’s worst nightmare. And if a spurious “peace” is imposed by any deal approximating that one, Germany, the U.K., France and their other European allies, including Poland, Finland, the Baltics, Nordics and (more cautiously) Italy, will know they’re out on their own. It would mark the return of big-power politics, a Yalta 2.0. It would enshrine NATO’s de-Americanization, a structural incapacity for Ukraine to defend itself, and confirm that, as far as the U.S. is concerned, Russia enjoys a veto on European security. “We say it’s existential, but we don’t yet act as if it is,” said one British defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The task for Merz, Starmer and Macron is then to accept — and admit to their publics — that they only have each other to rely on.